Don’t get too worked up over this. They have us barely in the slight risk I think mainly as a precaution. Most
of the action should be to our north. What the concern for us is that storms
develop in Illinois and perhaps an MCS. That would generally move to our north and the potential would be for some stuff fanning out along the axis of vorticity….an appendage perhaps…sticking down and coming through. The general idea is that this type of appendage would tend to fade in the evening, hence, the slight risk is to our north and northwest. Here is the day one outlook discussionthat pertains to us:
…GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY… LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION. THIS PROCESS WILL DEVELOP AS AN INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGS SEWD FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES…AND LARGE UPSTREAM RIDGE EXPANDS/AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CNTRL/NCNTRL U.S. MODEST TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WI/NRN IL WHERE GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST COINCIDENT WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WEAKENING INHIBITION AND INCREASING ASCENT WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THESE AREAS EAST ACROSS LAKE MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROMOTING ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS WILL ONLY IMPROVE WITH TIME AS MID LEVEL WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 50KT THROUGH THE EVENING. INITIAL CLUSTERS TO STORMS MAY EXHIBIT SOME INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ALSO INCREASING AS STORM ACTIVITY SPREAD EWD ACROSS LOWER MI INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF IL/IND/OH THROUGH LATER AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AN AXIS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER THESE AREAS ALONG A RESIDUAL WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THESE AREAS…THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT HEATING AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO AID STORM INITIATION IN THIS VERY UNSTABLE REGIME. AS FARTHER NORTH…SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH TIME…AND EVENTUALLY…STRONGER FORCING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS ZONE AS WELL. EXPECT STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE IN THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF A BETTER ORGANIZED MCS FORMING. AMPLIFYING PATTERN SUPERIMPOSED ON THE POSSIBLE MCS SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND EVENT MAY INCREASE INTO THE LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF IND/OH…AND PERHAPS SOUTH ACROSS THE OH RIVER.