Where’s Dolly? Does It Mean that Al Gore is Right?

Here’s the juice. Bertha formed farther east than any storm recorded so soon in the hurricane season. Bertha was also the longest lasting named storm in July at 17.25 days. Dolly was only the 6th storm to hit Texas in July. The four named storms for June and July are the 4th most ever recorded in a single season.

Get Ready….here they come! The stories are already beginning about the possibility of these little facts showing that Global Warming is causing more tropical cyclones. One of the first comes to us from the Christian Science Monitor. Before you read it, consider a few things.

Hurricane season goes from June until November; this is when hurricanes are most likely to form in the North Atlantic. Also, the North Atlantic is just a part of the world. Tropical Cyclones occur most frequently in the Western Pacific. There are also more storms in the Indian Ocean. Focusing on the North Atlantic and then drawing a conclusion from just that information would be foolish and perhaps misleading.

The first hurricane tracked on satellite was Camille in 1969. So, prior to that time, there were most likely a number of storms in the ocean that formed, lived and died and no one knew about it. They depended solely on ship reports. If they didn’t have enough reports to draw a conclusion, then it wasn’t known. Ships tend to avoid rough weather. The potential for past unreported storms in other parts of the world is especially true in other parts of the world.

Also note that there have been 3 other years in North Atlantic recorded history that have had more storms this early. So, it’s not unprecedented and it’s possible that there have been more storms in other seasons that were unknown. This CSM reporter does make a fleeting reference to this far down in the story by quoting a researcher that says that it is possible that the “results pull in a number of weak storms whose presence on the list could be an artifact of improvements in observing hurricanes from the air and from space.” This and another reference that the author of the report cautions that his work has not gone through the peer review process and has not been published. This is contrary to what the IPCC did in some of it’s report which is they did not follow accepted procedures and used unpublished material that had not been reviewed by peers in academia. So, I can conclude that this reporter did a fair job of writing this article. While he buried the consideration that this is perhaps a natural situation, he also didn’t mention Global Warming until late in the article either. Unlike the AP writer that I mentioned in the past, he was pretty straight-forward with the facts.

Here is the article from the Christian Science Monitor:

Hurricane Season: Big Start

See below for the latest, and perhaps the last data for what is now the tropical depression Dolly track. Most models I have seen have the remnant going into Arizona and New Mexico before looping back around into Oklahoma.

Here is the satellite photo of a tropical disturbance that came off of Africa a few days ago. So far, most of the models have not really picked up on this developing. However, I saw one that makes it perhaps a tropical storm but keeps it of maritime concern. An important note is that the NHC is no longer issuing reports on this system, which is interesting.


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