Dolly Becomes A Hurricane; Local Severe Risk Decreases


The severe risk has been greatly reduced as a MCV passed to our south and left much of the area in sinking air with drier conditions.  Although the front will move through overnight, it will be tough for the atmosphere to recover with enough vigor to produce much activity with the boundary.  Not totally out of the question but it’s tough to build a case.

Hurricane Dolly

Dolly NHC Track

Dolly NHC Track

Dolly officially became a hurricane at 5 pm EDT on Tuesday.  Winds were suggested to be near 75 mph.  Recon data shows a central pressure dropping to 986 mb and the falling tendency should continue.  With that in mind, it is forecast to increase to 90 mph with gusts to 115 mph at landfall early Wednesday Dolly Satafternoon.  Landfall is expected to be near Brownsville.  How it makes such an abrupt turn to the west seems pretty far fetched to me. The idea is that the trofiness digging through the midwest that is helping to influence the storm north will quickly fill back in and turn it west.  Hmm.  The area of landfall is probably one of the best places for a landfalling hurricane in the nation.  To the right of the landfall is the highest winds

Dolly Track USNavy

Dolly Track USNavy

and also the greatest storm surge. In this case, to the right is Padre Island.  There is no development on the island north of Port Isabel because it’s a national seashore.  The island is barrier island that protects the mainland from the storm surge.  Further, between Brownsville and Corpus Christi it is sparsely

Spaghetti Track

Spaghetti Track

populated as much of the area is the famous King Ranch.  The cows may not be happy but farmers in the area will be glad this time because they are in a drought situation. 

You can watch a radar image through this national interactive radar that will allow you to zoom anywhere in the country to street level, which means you can investigate the storm as it makes landfall.  Click here for the radar.

To the right is the “spaghetti track” where you can view the different model solutions for the track.  Here is the NHC discussion.

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