The Boys From Biloxi will be out and about snooping about this afternoon in an area of disturbed weather in the Antilles. Yesterday, the NHC had all but pooh-poohed the area and now suddenly they are sending out a hurricane hunter. Probably not a good idea to totally write off activity in this region this time of year. Anyway, from the brief look at he satellite pic its looking pretty good to me and the water temperatures are in the lower 80s and the real estate into the Gulf of Mexico has water temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Plenty of fuel.
Right now, the models don’t generally have the feature. The GFS takes a little something into the Gulf of Mexico in about 6 days but doesn’ do much. This is not unusual. None of them have intiated the activity so if the computer can’t see it, then it doesn’t know that it’s there so it can’t possibly have it in a forecast. As the data comes in that shows the models there is indeed a feature there, then we will get a better idea of what will happen.
The system is pretty far south which makes it a little more difficult to get a circulation going but its not too far south that its not likely. The general pattern is such that would suggest that the storm moves toward Central America or possibly across the southern part of the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche. But, that would assume a static pattern which would be foolish. A ridge is nosing over pretty good from the east but any slight breakdown of the western periphery and it will open the door to the northern or northwestern caribbean or perhaps the Gulf of Mexico. But let’s see if this guy does form into something before anyone gets too worked up.