Saved By Underwear! Bertha No Problem, No Buts


We got snookered Monday morning. An MCS blew up to the northwest along the upper low I spoke about Sunday. That MCS just kept propagating to the southeast and the result was something more than isolated t’storms for the northern half of the viewing area….and even some rain and t’storms for some of the southern and southwestern parts of the viewing area too. Otherwise, things look on track. The above is the SPC outlook for Tuesday into Wednesday morning from Monday afternoon. The green line ends northwest of Louisville. The front will be slow to get here and will most likely be nocturnal for us. Our threat will be minimal unless it moves a bit faster. But, the SPC has given themselves a pretty wide berth with the slight risk area for that eventuality and they still don’t have Louisville in the slight risk. In the discussion that has to do with the Ohio Valley, you will note that they say the best chance is from Kansas to Northern Ohio…or where the front is likely to be during daytime heating. It bears watching and we will do so. Here’s their stuff:

…MID MS AND OH VALLEYS… MAIN BAND OF MID LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES ON TUESDAY…WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON…PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXTENT OF DAY1 CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DICTATE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER…CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE REGION OF MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIE FROM CENTRAL KS INTO PARTS OF LOWER MI/NORTHERN OH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THIS AXIS…COUPLED WITH POCKETS OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING…WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL HELP ORGANIZE CONVECTION INTO MULTICELL LINES AND CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THREAT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN IN MOST AREAS BY 03Z

On This Date in History: THIS MAN WAS SAVED BY ANOTHER MAN’S UNDERWEAR!!! John Wesley Powell was a self-taught geologist and naturalist who had lost his right arm at the Battle of Shiloh. He is credited with charting the Grand Canyon and went on to lead the US Geological Survey and Bureau of American Ethnology. When making what would be the first trip through the Grand Canyon with a 9 man party down the Colorado River, they stopped to do some surveys. On July 8, 1869 the one armed Powell and George Bradley gingerly moved along a shear cliff when Powell made a short leap and found himself stuck with no where to go. Bradley was above him and tried to find a branch or something to extend to Powell, whose legs and one hand were giving out. Quick thinking ensued. Bradley stripped off his long underwear and lowered them down. Bravely, Powell let loose with his hand and quickly grabbed the dangling drawers. The fabric held, Powell was pulled to safety and he lived to tell about it and map the Grand Canyon. If this story happened today, can you imagine the commercials? “Acme Longjohns….So tough it saves lives!”

Hurricane Bertha: I’m not putting up a map or anything. Track forecast is about the same. Data is about the same. Storm holds something close to the current intensity, moves around the ridge towards Bermuda or somewhere either side. It weakens as it moves toward Bermuda as per shearing idea, though I suspect cooler waters will also play a role. No problem for anyone unless you are maritime interests, an academic or going to Bermuda. So, let’s see. We have a volcano in Hawaii and a volcano under the North pole. We have wildfires in California and tornadoes in the Midwest. What gives? It’s called life. I’m guessing that media foofs have been peppering the NHC with questions as exemplified by the final line from senior forecaster Lexion Avila with tonight’s discussion prior to the forecast intensity and plots:

BERTHA IS CERTAINLY NOT THE ONLY MAJOR HURRICANE THAT HAS FORMED IN THE MONTH OF JULY. THE LAST OCCURRENCES WERE HURRICANES DENNIS AND EMILY IN 2005.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 20.8N 52.8W 105 KT 12HR VT 08/

1200Z 21.5N 54.2W 100 KT

24HR VT 09/0000Z 22.5N 56.0W 100 KT

36HR VT 09/1200Z 23.5N 58.0W 95 KT

48HR VT 10/0000Z 25.0N 59.5W 85 KT

72HR VT 11/0000Z 27.5N 61.5W 80 KT

96HR VT 12/0000Z 30.0N 62.0W 75 KT

120HR VT 13/0000Z 32.0N 62.0W 75 KT

$$ FORECASTER AVILA

There are no comments on this post.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: