Tropical Storm Bertha Still Looks Like No Problem

Bertha appears to be doing what I suspected that it would as previously models had suggested.  There is nothing out there that suggests that a trof will come to the east coast and the mid-Atlantic ridge will weaken such that there would be a nice channel for Bertha to travel.  In this track forecast from the NHC it seems to steer the storm closer to Bermuda than I would have thought but I suspect that they are taking into account one model that wants to turn it north sooner than the rest. So, typically when they are this far out, the more or less make an ensemble and give some weight to all models. Most of the models take it between Bermuda and the Bahamas then turn it northwest and then more north and run it between Bermuda and the US mainland.  The satellite photo indicates that Bertha looks better than yesterday and the environment is getting better for development but there is at least one model that wants to disrupt it downstream which would make some sense if we get a trof on the East coast which would tend to get some southwesterly winds aloft that may give Bertha some trouble.  As it stands now, this does not appear to be a troublemaker unless you are headed toward the Bermuda.  Of course, variables can show up now and again and you can rest assured the folks at the NHC will keep an eye on Bertha.


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