Tropical Storm Bertha


This is a different perspective of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Normally, media outlets will pass along the National Hurricane Center forecasts.  So, to provide something a little different, yet probably pretty close to the same conclusions found at NHC, this track and report is from the United States Navy Research Laboratory.  It is not classified.  What I see probably happening with Bertha is that it moves along as it is doing to somewhere between the Bahamas and Bermuda.  At that point, a frontal boundary on Friday should move down and may pick up the storm, taking it between Bermuda and the US coastline.  That’s what most of the models want to do…HOWEVER…if that trof doesn’t dig down and pick it up and the mid-Atlantic Ridge stays strong, it is not out of the question for this guy to get driven farther to the east and perhaps affect the east coast.  There’s a lot of ifs and buts there as is normal when you are talking a week or so out.  If you look at the satellite photo and look closely, you will see the surface pressure contours (isobars) around the mid-Atlantic ridge.  If it breaks down a bit in the east, as I think it probably will, then Bertha turns north before it reaches the US.  if it expands or stays about as it is now, then it could be problematic.  That’s just the track….then one must ponder if it’s environment gets healthy and does not encounter any upper level systems or shearing.  So far, the most interesting thing about Bertha is that it is the farthest eastern forming tropical storm this early in the year…the one previous? That was Bertha also in 2002. I think that one grazed the east coast. But with hurricanes, history does not repeat itself. 

SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM BERTHA (02L) WARNING NR 011
WTNT01 KNGU 052101
1. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA (02L) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WARNING POSITION:
051800Z — NEAR 16.6N 38.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 275 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 38.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z — 17.1N 42.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z — 17.8N 45.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z — 18.5N 49.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z — 19.3N 52.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 20.8N 58.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5… AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 22.5N 63.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 25.0N 67.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

REMARKS:
052101Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 39.3W OR APPROX 1575NM E OF
SAN JUAN, PR. 12 FT SEAS: 300NM NE, 150NM SE, 75NM SW,
225NM NW. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060301Z, 060901Z, 061501Z
AND 062101Z.//
BT

One Response

  1. Hi,

    We didn’t make it to the Chessapeake this year.

    Bertha 1996 brushed NC coast, Wilmington up to VA. Ran us off Emerald Is. The real action happened 2 months later when Fran came in to Durham (our home) and made a mess of things.

    I am enjoying the blog so far, keep up the good work.

    mpm

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