3rd and 4th Outlook


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All on schedule as for next couple of days. Clouds for today with crummy lapse rates will inhibit chances for anything worthwhile with the front. For the Fourth, there remains the chance that any rain that we get may break for fireworks. At this point, it looks like we will see some improvement on Saturday. Previously, there had been indications that a wave along a stalled boundary moved through late Friday and early Saturday and moved off by Saturday afternoon. The GFS on a couple of occasions had tried to keep a wave over us all day on Saturday and Sunday. As it stands, there is a consensus that after a late night/early morning wave of rain Friday night, the front slides farther south. So, rain potential may be highest while I’m at the Jeffersonville Fourth of July Parade on Friday morning through midday and then again after fireworks. The rest of the weekend should work out well from Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Here’s what the SPC has to say about Friday into early Saturday.

…TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES… ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL EXIST IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK FRONT…WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY. SOME WARMING SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS ALONG FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES…AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. THOUGH WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS AT 20-30 KT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS…WEAK INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A SLIGHT RISK ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.

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