Midday Severe Threat Analysis


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Here is the midday update for the Severe Threat Saturday. On the one hand I’m not surprised on the other I am a bit. I had thought all along that to the northeast might be the best risk. But, as I mentioned early early Saturday morning I had seen that one model had a concentration to our southwest and I spy an MCS traveling exactly that direction. The SPC mentions the unidirectional nature of the winds and I saw that with great continuity on all models from 850 up, mainly from the west. But there was a slight bit of veering from the surface, say from 230 to 280 degrees. We are re-loading with temperatures well into the mid 80’s and I have pondered all week whether or not we even get to 90. That’s not totally out of the question. My gut feeling from last night still holds. I think it’s a fair bet that we will have something akin to a repeat of last night with a number of strong storms with several severe t-storm warnings this afternoon and this evening. Tornado threat is minimal but we did have several twister reports to our west yesterday and even one warning for Orange County. That type of small, short lived activity would not be totally out of the question, most likely with an errant cell merger or bow echo.

I bet a watch is issued from our region to the northeast. There was some discontinuity with the models with the exact progged location, but as jet streak is progged to nose down into our region with some models putting us on the right rear quadrant of the jet, which is a favored area. Others had it slightly north and swinging northeast.

Here is the SPC discussion for our region:

SYNOPSIS… IMPRESSIVE LATE JUNE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND MAX WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD FROM UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BY LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DISRUPTED LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND AREAS OF DECAYING CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL PLAINS EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER A VERY MOIST POTENTIALLY MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXTENDED FROM LOWER MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS OH/TN VALLEY TO E OF APPALACHIANS FROM NY TO VA. …MID TO UPPER OH VALLEY… THIS AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A MDT RISK MUCH OF OH VALLEY THIS AM IS VERY MOIST AND ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT THERE IS ONLY MINIMAL CINH. WITH 30-40KT WSWLY 850MB FLOW AND THE RAPID APPROACH OF THE IMPRESSIVE 80KT 500 MB WIND MAX FROM MID MS VALLEY…THE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF FAST MOVING LINEAR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWS. AS THE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AND WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 70F…BY EARLY AFTERNOON MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AOA 2500 J/KG. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOT WELL DEFINED DUE TO UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THE CAP APPEARS TO BE WEAKEST FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN IND. STORMS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG JET DRIVING EWD ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY INTO NRN OH BY 00Z…AND THE CONTINUED 30-40KT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW…FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ONCE STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LINER MODE. SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT.

Here are the pops for our area and the HPC rainfall prediction. Note the bullit point for rain to the southwest which I suspect is a reflection of the track of the current MCS that I mentioned to our southwest.

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