Derby Forecast May Not Be A Winner-Ellen, Chandra, Casey and George

Casey Jones


What I’ve been suggesting for the weather to wind up the Derby Festival activities is pretty much still supportable. We still warm up today to the upper 60’s to low 70’s for the Parade. We still move to around 80 or so for the Parade Thursday and the front still approaches for Friday. Most of Oaks Day should be warm, humid and breezy but pop up showers or even t’showers may be on the prowl ahead of the front on Friday afternoon. Then the main event shows up for Friday night. The severe prospects will probably be limited due to the timing of the front and be mainly west but the SPC has us in the eastern flank of the severe risk for Friday into Saturday morning.  There will be pretty good available energy and decent dynamics and that is why they have us in the risk but its also on the edge because of the timing.

 Rain will be possible for Saturday morning. Now, there also continues to be a suggestion, perhaps even more suggestive than yesterday, that we have a situation on Saturday similar to what we had on Monday. That is that a low pivots around the main low and swings through on Saturday afternoon. It’s a pool of cold air aloft and that would possibly trigger afternoon showers and t’showers. This may actually be a better chance than on Monday because our surface temperatures will be in the low to mid 70’s and not 60. That will increase the likelihood of increased lapse rates which would enhance rain/t’storm chances. This guy will act as a cold front and bring in cooler air for Sunday, though probably not as chilly as we had for Tuesday. So, the forecast is still not in the winner’s circle…maybe place but most would probably consider it call it to show.

On This Date In History: I found a source that claims that Jesus of Nazareth died on this date around 30 AD, but I haven’t been able to get corroborating evidence so take that for what its worth.

George Washington took office for the first time in 1789. I’m a bit shady on why it was April 30 and not March 4 as the Constitution outlined but my shady memory makes me want to say it was due to transportation issues. It was a long and slow journey from Mt. Vernon to New York, the provisional Capitol. In fact, if I recall correctly, John Adams was sworn in as Vice President before President Washington took his oath. Some sources claim that means that Adams was really the first president since he would assume presidential duties in the absence of a president. 100 years later, George was honored with the nations first national holiday on this date in 1889. Then, perhaps not coincidentally, on this date in 1931, the George Washington Bridge between New York and New Jersey was opened.

Casey Jones died on this date in 1900. His real name was John Luther Jones but when he took the job as a flagman for the Mobile and Ohio Railroad and someone asked him where he was from and he said Cayce, Kentucky. The men started calling him Cayce and that turned into “Casey.” He became an engineer for the Illinois Central Railroad and was driving the Cannonball Run, which was a generic term for fast trains, from Chicago to New Orleans. He was behind schedule so he had his fireman, Sim Webb to open it up. Casey had a reputation for going too fast and also for the way he handled his train whistle. People would hear the way he manipulated the tootling and say “there goes Casey Jones.” So, he’s flying along at between 75 and 100 mph in driving his passenger train when he comes around a curve and sees a freight train stopped ahead of him. He tells Webb to jump as he applies the brakes and toots the whistle. Webb jumps and Jones plows into the caboose of the freight train. They say that he had managed to slow his train down to 35 mph, thus saving all of the passengers but he was killed. The myth is that he was found with one hand clutching the whistle and the other the brake. His watch stopped at 3:52 AM and his action is credited with saving the lives of all of the passengers. The reason he was behind schedule is that he had already driven a northbound train to Memphis and decided to make another run southbound because the engineer scheduled called in sick. In spite of the heroic lore that has followed his name, an investigation concluded that he was largely to blame for driving too fast.

Remember Chandra Levy? This was the last day she was seen alive in 2001. There was a big investigation into her murder with suspicion being focused on Congressman Gary Condit. Remember it was all over the news, day and night all summer. That is until Sept. 11, 2001 and suddenly the media dropped it has fast as they picked it up. That was also the summer of “shark attacks” that suddenly wasn’t so important by mid September.

And on this date in 1997, Ellen DeGeneres “came out” on her TV show. It was all the controversy. There was on station in Alabama that refused to run the episode on TV.

Oh…one other thing. Thomas Jefferson violated the Constitution on this date in 1803 when the US government paid $15 million to France for Louisiana on this date in 1803. It was a good deal but the Constitution doesn’t give the Executive the power to do such a thing without Congressional approval. But expediency trumped the rule of law and no one said a thing.

2 Responses

  1. So, basicly what your saying is that this storm is like the guy that brung in cooler air and people was talking it was gonna carry hail etc, but only difference is the air temps

    I was looking at the lows for derby day, and I noticed that it will drop around 60.

    So what I’m thinking is that maybe thursday or maybe friday the SPC will shift that slight rise a lil to the left and keep us out of it.

    like you said cause of the timing and plus I heard it should weaken as it comes by.

  2. The front is looking like it will be slower. That would tend to create a more optimistic outcome for Friday,though I would have some thought of perhaps some individual guys bubbling up in the flow ahead of the boundary Friday afternoon, especially if a small shortwave wanders across. However, the atmoshphere may have a sufficient cap such that convective conditions will not be able to overcome the cap if the short does not materialize or move over us. There is some indication that we get a little vort lobe swinging around over us on Saturday afternoon. That is not set in stone though. The main action though does look like it will be Friday night and ending Sat morning.

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