Derby Week Outlook and a Useless Conference


So, here’s the story for the big week. If you watched last night then you saw me talk about a break in the clouds in between the ones from Sunday night and the ones to come Monday afternoon.  The sunshine will allow us to push toward 60 before a cold front sweeps across.  With today’s sun it will still be cool but enough heating to create pretty good lapse rates by the afternoon when the cold air aloft with the upper low support of the approaching storm moves in.   The boys at the SPC think that the lapse rates will be sufficient to perhaps create severe storms.  Generally, I’d it’s going to be tough to do that but the air aloft is pretty dog gone cold so its possible, not probable and if we did, it would be in the form of hail or gusty winds. 

Tuesday will feature sunshine but be cool. Wednesday we get a warm front after a chilly start and we get to the upper 60’s to low 70’s.  Great afternoon for watching a steamboat race.  Thursday will be a fine day for a parade with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 70’s and low 80’s.  Friday, first part of Oaks Day wiil be warm.  A cold front will be approaching.  I suspect that in the afternoon there will be scattered storms meandering by from SW to NE ahead of the front. It will be breezy.  The concentration of t’storms will be in a line associated with the front overnight Friday followed by lingering showers early Saturday before we clear out for a pleasant Derby afternoon.  The timing of the front has stayed pretty consistent and that will be our best scenario because its between Oaks Day race and Derby Day races.  However, afternoon Thursday races, including the Oaks race itself, my be susceptible to t’showers.  If the front is a few hours faster, then it may be more interesting than that. 

On This Date In History:  Ever noticed how there are some people who feel like that effort or intent is  more important than actual results?  Symbolism over substance.  Today marks such a day because, if that’s not the case, then it would be largely forgotten.  On April 28, 1915 World War I (then known as the Great War) raged and the International Congress of Women convened at The Hague in the Netherlands.  The meeting was one of women’s rights organizations and suffrage groups from around the world.  One of the main organizers, Aletta Jacobs, said in her opening remarks that the group meeting would “have its moral effect upon the belligerent countries,”  The conference lasted 3 days and concluded in part “…we can no longer endure in this twentieth century of civilization that government should tolerate brute force as the only solution of international disputes.”  They outlined specific ways of conflict resolution with continual mediation. 

Of course, it didn’t work, not in this war or any other armed conflict.  WWI went on for 3 more years then we had World War II and so many other conflicts.  Now, you might say that if these nations had listened to what is often referred to as the Women’s Peace Conference then these other conflicts wouldn’t have happened.  But, in WWI no one was giving up an inch on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.  Neville Chamberlain tried the negotiation route and he ended up sacrificing the people of Czechoslovakia for a piece of worthless paper. I mean really…I wonder if these ladies really thought that one could reason with Adolph Hitler 20 years after their Peace Conference?  Negotiations didn’t stop Slobadan Milosevic, it was the bombs of the United States Air Force ordered dropped by President Clinton.  When you extend a hand, you have to have a hammer close by.  People like these women meant well.  But they seem to think that having a meeting and bringing attention to themselves does anything when in fact, it does nothing.  Action requires boldness. 

If you look at the Great Seal of the United States.  You will find that in the talons of the Eagle, there is an olive branch as well as a cluster of 13 arrows.  The most obvious representation is that the 13 arrows is for the 13 original colonies.  But, the cluster of arrows and the olive branch indicates “peace through strength.”  The founding fathers knew that a strong nation was one more likely to live  in peace. 

Pragmatism and reality doesn’t seem to disuade or convince folks though because, today there are many associations like International Congress of Women that think they are doing something, that tell people they are doing something and have people tell them they are doing something when, in fact, they accomplish nothing except headlines.  Martin Luther King achieved success through action.  The US achieved freedom through action.    The Spirit and words of President Roosevelt do well here:

“It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself for a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat.”

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