Peace Conference, Kentucky Derby Forecast Look All Wet April 28, 2010

This Outfit for Man and Horse Was Required for World War I But You May Need Something Else For Kentucky Derby 136

Click Image to See If There is Anyone You Know

On This Date In History:  Ever noticed how there are some people who feel like that effort or intent is  more important than actual results?  Symbolism over substance.  Today marks such a day because, if that’s not the case, then it would be largely forgotten.  On this date in 1915 World War I (then known as the Great War) raged and the International Congress of Women convened at The Hague in the Netherlands.  The meeting was one of women’s rights organizations and suffrage groups from around the world. 

Aletta Jacobs

 One of the main organizers, Aletta Jacobs, said in her opening remarks that the group meeting would “have its moral effect upon the belligerent countries,”  The conference lasted 3 days and concluded in part ”…we can no longer endure in this twentieth century of civilization that government should tolerate brute force as the only solution of international disputes.”  They outlined specific ways of conflict resolution with continual mediation.   Later, this conference led to the creation of other groups including the Womens’ International League for Peace and Freedom.

This Banner At the Hague Really Made a Difference in 1915

What Did More To Bring an End to America's Involvement in Vietnam? John and Yoko sitting in bed giving peace a chance or Nixon bombing North Vietnam back to the negotation table?

People like these women meant well and their underlying notion has practical merit.  After the 30 Years War, Europeans came up with the Peace of Westphalia which was reached with everyone taking an eye toward balance of power.  The war had taught them that little was accomplished and the weaponry and methods of the day resulted in such destruction to the economy and people that war was becoming too costly to consider as a viable means of settling conflict.  But a condition of mankind seems to be one of violence and so ideals, regardless of their merit, tend to be squashed by reality.  These ladies seemed to think that having a meeting and bringing attention to themselves would do anything when in fact, it did nothing.  Action requires boldness.  

The Great Seal of the United States of America

If you look at the Great Seal of the United States.  You will find that in the talons of the Eagle, there is an olive branch as well as a cluster of 13 arrows.  The most obvious representation is that the 13 arrows is for the 13 original colonies.  But, the cluster of arrows and the olive branch indicates “peace through strength.”  The founding fathers knew that a strong nation was one more likely to live  in peace.  

You Tell'em, Teddy!

Pragmatism and reality doesn’t seem to dissuade or convince folks though because, today there are many associations like International Congress of Women that think they are doing something, that tell people they are doing something and have people tell them they are doing something when, in fact, they accomplish nothing except headlines.  Martin Luther King achieved success through action.  The US achieved freedom through action.  Peace is ultimately achieved through action.   The Spirit and words of President Roosevelt do well here: 

“It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself for a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat.” 

I Told You So! (at least I think so)

Kentucky Derby 2010 Forecast: For several days I’ve been telling you about the potential for some interesting weather for Derby Day. I saw some local TV guys have a 30% chance for rain and I said how I wasn’t sold on that. Often when there are big events, forecasters tend to “wish cast” which would be making a forecast based on what they want it to be instead of what the data suggests. In this case, some models had the system slow and another fast. The slow model would result in a better Derby Day forecast and so many people chose that. Better to be the bearer of good news. I had surmised that the truth would probably be in between with rain likely on Saturday and strong storms possible. For now, it may be worth bringing out Colonel Klink and also for you to prepare for rain, though I do not think Churchill Downs allows umbrellas. But, you can place your bet on your favorite mudder. See details below.

SPC Outline of Area for Severe Storm Potential on Derby Day

GFS Has Heaviest Rain (1.5") Early Saturday Morning

Weather Bottom Line:  After a chilly Wednesday start, we get into a warming trend starting today as high pressure in Louisiana moves to the east.  That will result in a SSW flow set up and create warm air advection as well as increase moisture from the Gulf.   The European model had been holding everything back such that it was possible that the next storm system didn’t get here until Sunday or even Monday.  But the GFS consistently brought it out much faster.  The GFS solution would have messed up both the 136th Kentucky Oaks on Friday and possibly the 136th Kentucky Derby on Saturday.  I had been looking for an ultimate outcome of something in between, meaning that I expected that Oaks Day would be partly cloudy, warm and breezy with a fair amount of rain on Derby Day with t’storms. I kept looking for severe weather on Saturday but the models weren’t all that committed.  At this time, the data is supporting my hypothesis except that now the models are more bullish on the severe potential and the Storm Prediction Center has jumped on board.  

NAM Initializes Rain Event Saturday morning

Yesterday, I mentioned that all we needed was a “kicker” to ignite the unstable atmosphere and we’d have an increased potential for severe weather on Saturday.  The GFS was throwing out about 2 inches of rain for Derby Day.  It would seem that now we do indeed have all the ingredients for not only excessive rain but also strong storms.  Basically, the main low makes its way to the Great Lakes but another low comes out of Northern Mexico into S0uth Texas.  That sets up a long frontal boundary from North to South with the boundary just to our west.  There will be ample southerly flow providing an influx of moisture into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley.  The low to the south will tend to slow the front down.  It will also tend to throw off pieces of energy.  

Canadian Advertises over an inch of rain Saturday Afternoon

So, we have a set up with a stalled front that will result in consistent rain and then a low tossing out energy that will run up along the front and produce a risk for severe weather as it moves NE along the boundary.  The GFS has backed off its rain plans on Friday though the NAM does want to try to increase chances.  I still think that Oaks Day will generally be fine unless a stray shower or t’shower moves over Churchill Downs.   Saturday though looks tough.  I also think that the rain chances will stay pretty high through Sunday.  Of course, this is Wednesday and things could change with regard to timing but so far, the data is generally coming more in line with what I had thought would be a likely scenario which was the one that made the most sense to me, regardless of what the models were saying.  And you know what…the weather always does what it will do without consulting the computers to find out what its supposed to do.  I would have a concern that the folks that got slammed by twisters last Saturday will be facing the potential for another round.

Federal Gov’t Used Media to Convince Public to Support War August 15, 2009

 

Someone in the Federal Gov't Used the Press to Stop this type of subversion prior to US entry into World War I

 

On this Date In History: The United States Government worked directly with the media to stir up support for war with German on this date in 1915. The newspaper to the left is from the New York World on Aug 15, 1915 when it reported the tactics Germany was using. Now, to be sure, the stories were true but the World got the story from the federal government who leaked it under the condition that the source not be revealed. I guess that pledge got broken at some point in time because I’m sitting here writing about it and you are reading about it. Presumably, the secret wasn’t revealed until well after the war was over.

The Lusitania was sunk by a German U-Boat on May 15, 1915 and most school history classes will point to that event as one that got Americans agitated. While it may have raised eyebrows, the American people remained largely isolationist and instead of real outrage, it was more like a collective yawn that was heard across the pond. But, with the sinking in the back of their minds, the American people got aroused when they heard from the World that Germans were planning on secretly buying all of America’s chlorine to prevent the US from selling it to Britain and France for use in poison gas. The Germans were going to secretly build munition factories in the US, take orders from the Allies and then not deliver and they intended to buy up so much incendiary powder that other companies would be unable to fill orders.

Coded and Deciphered Zimmerman Telegram

Pretty clever really. They were going to work within the American system to mess up the supply of their opponents. So, how did the Americans uncover this plot? They became the benefactors of a nitwit German spy.  Heinrich Albert was a commercial attache at the German Embassy. He kept meticulous records of all the German covert operations in the US. He carried his notes in a briefcase on a train and Secret Service Agent Frank Burke, who was assigned to tail Albert, grabbed the case and ran off the train. Albert quickly realized his mistake and saw Burke running away. He gave pursuit but failed when Burke jumped on a streetcar and convinced the motorman that he was being chased by a lunatic. The motorman responded by skipping the next stop, leaving Albert out of breath and out of luck.

Arthur Zimmerman

It was the leaking of the information to the media that got the American public to begin to relinquish their isolationist stance. But, it wasn’t the until the Zimmerman telegram of 1917 that the US went to war when it was learned that Germany was trying to make a deal with Mexico to invade the US. I wonder if the information from the briefcase was leaked to the press in an attempt by lower level public officials to undermine President Wilson’s steadfast claim to neutrality. That practice continued with such incidents as the Pentagon Papers. Watergate and various leaks regarding the Iraq war…underlings who disagree with the boss running and telling the press. While some of these events may have created desirable results in your mind, it could be considered a dangerous practice to have loose cannons running around the government.

Weather Bottom Line:  Weekend looks pretty typical for this time of year, but not too bad. While humidity will be increasing, look for it to be reasonably comfortable with the mercury lurking in the upper 80′s and low 90′s.  Sunday will be the most likely day for 90.  Same for Monday but there will be a front sagging down. Rain chances will increase on Monday afternoon and then slowly crecendo as the week goes on because the actual front doesn’t get here until the middle of the week.

Gov’t Uses Press To Gain Support For War; NHC Uses Hurricane Hunter Looking For Fay August 15, 2008

We got a few passing showers that brought some welcome relief. Hope you were one of the lucky ones. This will be our last chance for rain through the weekend, though there may be a few lucky folks in the extreme southern part of the viewing area Friday afternoon. In spite of the need for rain, it should be relatively comfortable though.

Tropics Still Waiting On Fay….(EDIT-wait no more…here’s latest report on Tropical Storm Fay)

8/14 spaghetti track 18Z

It appears that the boys at the NHC is being very conservative with this particular

08/14 NAM 18Z

storm. In the past I have written that I thought that they were pretty aggressive with developing storms or naming storms with not a lot of substance. This one looks pretty good on satellite but Jack Beven at the NHC says that the good convection is offset to the west of the circulation which is not strong at this time. This was confirmed by the Hurricane Hunter today but the NHC says its getting into an enviroment that is not hostile for development. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one either go straight to Tropical Storm Fay and skip the depression stage or it won’t stay at the depression stage for long. 14 out of 15 intensity models take it eventually to at least tropical storm strength with about half going to hurricane status. The NAM (eta) continues to deepen the storm into a formidable hurricane in the Bahamas by Monday morning. The GFS has the feature in about the same

08/14 spaghetti Intensity 18Z

spot at the same time but maybe as a minimal tropical storm. As I had mentioned

08/14 GFS 18Z

previously, the spaghetti tracks had been wanting to take it into South Florida and maybe the Gulf. But what troubled me about that was the general trofiness that we’ve had over the Eastern US that has brought the nice weather to Louisville and elsewhere. Well, the new spaghetti run seems to indicate that just about every model has picked up on this and it wants to take the storm off the US SE Coast. This makes sense. Unless the storm can get under the trof, it would seem to me that it’s unlikely it can get into the Gulf. BTW…the GFS suddenly no longer has any hint of a tropical cyclone in the Gulf in two weeks. Told you not to trust the long term prognostications. This happens a lot. A long term computer will put in a feature way out…then take it out…and often it suddenly reappears down the line. We’ll have to wait and see about that one. You can find thumbnails of the mentioned models and graphics. The NHC put out a special statement on disturbance 92L and it follows.

Here’s the 5pm update on the tropical disturbance 92L

On this Date In History: The United States Government worked directly with the media to stir up support for war with German on this date in 1915. The newspaper to the left is from the New York World on Aug 15, 1915 when it reported the tactics Germany was using. Now, to be sure, the stories were true but the World got the story from the federal government who leaked it under the condition that the source not be revealed. I guess that pledge got broken at some point in time because I’m sitting here writing about it and you are reading about it. Presumably, the secret wasn’t revealed until well after the war was over.

The Lusitania sunk by a German U-Boat on May 15, 1915 and most school history classes will point to that event as one that got Americans agitated. While it may have raised eyebrows but the American people remained largely isolationist and instead of real outrage, it was more like a collective yawn that was heard across the pond. But, with the sinking in the back of their minds, the American people got aroused when they heard from the World that Germans were planning on secretly buying all of America’s chlorine to prevent the US from selling it to Britain and France for use in poison gas. The Germans were going to secretly build munition factories in the US, take orders from the Allies and then not deliver and they intended to buy up so much incendiary powder that other companies would be unable to fill orders.

Pretty clever really. They were going to work within the American system to mess up the supply of their opponents. So, how did the Americans uncover this plot? They became the benefactors of a nitwit German spy. Heinrich Albert was a commercial attache at the German Embassy. He kept meticulous records of all the German covert operations in the US. He carried his notes in a briefcase on a train and Secret Service Agent Frank Burke, who was assigned to tail Albert, grabbed the case and ran off the train. Albert quickly realized his mistake and saw Burke running away. He gave pursuit but failed when Burke jumped on a streetcar and convinced the motorman that he was being chased by a lunatic. The motorman responded by skipping the next stop, leaving Albert out of breath and out of luck.

It was the leaking of the information to the media that got the American public to begin to relinquish their isolationist stance. But, it wasn’t the until the Zimmerman letter of 1917 that the US went to war when it was learned that Germany was trying to make a deal with Mexico to invade the US. I wonder if the information from the briefcase was leaked to the press in an attempt by lower level public officials to undermine President Wilson’s steadfast claim to neutrality. That practice continued with such incidents as the Pentagon Papers. Watergate and various leaks regarding the Iraq war…underlings who disagree with the boss running and telling the press. While some of these events may have created desirable results in your mind, it can be a dangerous practice to have loose cannons running around the government.

Derby Week Outlook and a Useless Conference April 28, 2008

So, here’s the story for the big week. If you watched last night then you saw me talk about a break in the clouds in between the ones from Sunday night and the ones to come Monday afternoon.  The sunshine will allow us to push toward 60 before a cold front sweeps across.  With today’s sun it will still be cool but enough heating to create pretty good lapse rates by the afternoon when the cold air aloft with the upper low support of the approaching storm moves in.   The boys at the SPC think that the lapse rates will be sufficient to perhaps create severe storms.  Generally, I’d it’s going to be tough to do that but the air aloft is pretty dog gone cold so its possible, not probable and if we did, it would be in the form of hail or gusty winds. 

Tuesday will feature sunshine but be cool. Wednesday we get a warm front after a chilly start and we get to the upper 60′s to low 70′s.  Great afternoon for watching a steamboat race.  Thursday will be a fine day for a parade with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 70′s and low 80′s.  Friday, first part of Oaks Day wiil be warm.  A cold front will be approaching.  I suspect that in the afternoon there will be scattered storms meandering by from SW to NE ahead of the front. It will be breezy.  The concentration of t’storms will be in a line associated with the front overnight Friday followed by lingering showers early Saturday before we clear out for a pleasant Derby afternoon.  The timing of the front has stayed pretty consistent and that will be our best scenario because its between Oaks Day race and Derby Day races.  However, afternoon Thursday races, including the Oaks race itself, my be susceptible to t’showers.  If the front is a few hours faster, then it may be more interesting than that. 

On This Date In History:  Ever noticed how there are some people who feel like that effort or intent is  more important than actual results?  Symbolism over substance.  Today marks such a day because, if that’s not the case, then it would be largely forgotten.  On April 28, 1915 World War I (then known as the Great War) raged and the International Congress of Women convened at The Hague in the Netherlands.  The meeting was one of women’s rights organizations and suffrage groups from around the world.  One of the main organizers, Aletta Jacobs, said in her opening remarks that the group meeting would “have its moral effect upon the belligerent countries,”  The conference lasted 3 days and concluded in part ”…we can no longer endure in this twentieth century of civilization that government should tolerate brute force as the only solution of international disputes.”  They outlined specific ways of conflict resolution with continual mediation. 

Of course, it didn’t work, not in this war or any other armed conflict.  WWI went on for 3 more years then we had World War II and so many other conflicts.  Now, you might say that if these nations had listened to what is often referred to as the Women’s Peace Conference then these other conflicts wouldn’t have happened.  But, in WWI no one was giving up an inch on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.  Neville Chamberlain tried the negotiation route and he ended up sacrificing the people of Czechoslovakia for a piece of worthless paper. I mean really…I wonder if these ladies really thought that one could reason with Adolph Hitler 20 years after their Peace Conference?  Negotiations didn’t stop Slobadan Milosevic, it was the bombs of the United States Air Force ordered dropped by President Clinton.  When you extend a hand, you have to have a hammer close by.  People like these women meant well.  But they seem to think that having a meeting and bringing attention to themselves does anything when in fact, it does nothing.  Action requires boldness. 

If you look at the Great Seal of the United States.  You will find that in the talons of the Eagle, there is an olive branch as well as a cluster of 13 arrows.  The most obvious representation is that the 13 arrows is for the 13 original colonies.  But, the cluster of arrows and the olive branch indicates “peace through strength.”  The founding fathers knew that a strong nation was one more likely to live  in peace. 

Pragmatism and reality doesn’t seem to disuade or convince folks though because, today there are many associations like International Congress of Women that think they are doing something, that tell people they are doing something and have people tell them they are doing something when, in fact, they accomplish nothing except headlines.  Martin Luther King achieved success through action.  The US achieved freedom through action.    The Spirit and words of President Roosevelt do well here:

“It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself for a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat.”