The Forgotten Tragic Loss of American Airmen at Hiroshima July 29, 2010

Tom Cartwright, standing 3rd from Left, Only Survivor of Lonesome Lady Crew Which Was in the Wrong Place at the Wrong Time

B-24 Liberator "Lonesome Lady" Nose Art

On This Date in History:  By the end of July 1945, the allies pretty much had secured air superiority over the Empire of Japan.   The Japanese, however, showed no signs of giving up any time soon so the Americans continued to bomb targets on the Japanese mainland.  On the morning of July 28, 1945 several small groups of B-24 Liberators took off to fly their mission.  The target was the Japanese Battleship Haruna, one of the few battleships remaining in the once mighty Japanese Navy.  The group of planes that included the “Lonesome Lady” was short one plane so it only had 5 B-24s in its flight.  Now, the Haruna was anchored in the Kure Harbor Naval Base, which was heavily armed with anti-aircraft defenses.  The Haruna and other vessels at the base also were naturally heavily armed.  Members of the US Army Air Corps generally had a rule of thumb: “never fly over a battleship.”  However, Lonesome Lady pilot Lt. T.C. Cartwright knew that orders always trumped rules of thumb.

The Lonesome Lady Turned Back Over Land Instead of Safety of Sea

After the Lonesome Lady dropped its bombs,  Cartwright noticed that one of its companion planes, the Taloa. was shot down.  One of those killed in the crash of the Taloa was Lt. Robert C. Johnston, whose family learned of his fate in 2009.  Shortly after the Taloa fell from the sky, another B-24 went down, though it was able to make its way toward a US held island near Okinawa.   The Lonesome Lady took a hit and Cartwright thought that he could make it back to the ocean but he soon realized that the damage was to allow for that strategy.  The plane became so uncontrollable that it deviated from its heading toward the sea back toward the land on its own.  With an engine in flames and the hydraulics lost, the plane was completely out of control.  Cartwright ordered the crew to bail out and, to the best of his knowledge, Cartwright was the last to leave the doomed bomber.

Youthful Lonesome Lady Pilot Tom Cartwright

All of the crew came to earth safely but in a very wide area.  Each one was alone and each one was eventually captured and taken to a military installation for detention.  On this date in 1945, the crew of the Lonesome Lady found themselves housed in a military detention center.  They later found out that the detention center was on a military base in Hiroshima, Japan.   While the base was one of many in Hiroshima, none were intended to be military detention centers and so they had no experienced interrogators.  It is quite interesting that Cartwright said that, at that point in the war, air crews were briefed to tell the Japanese the correct answers to anything that they asked.  Apparently, US military officials felt that whatever the captured crews told their captors, the Japanese already knew the information so there was no sense it risking torture or undue harrassment.  So, Cartwright said that he answered all of the questions put before him truthfully.  Nevertheless, the Japanese thought he was lying so they sent him to the Imperial General Headquarters in Tokyo for further questioning.  Normally, such a trip may result in terrific torture and pain for the unfortunate POW who was sent to such an interrogation facility.  It was not uncommon for prisoners to be beheaded.   For Cartwright, the moved proved to be a lifesaver.

Durden W. Looper

On the morning of August 6, 1945 the US B-29 Bomber called the Enola Gay dropped, “Little Boy”,  the first atomic bomb used in warfare on Hiroshima, Japan.  The target was the Aioi Bridge crossing the Ota River.  About a half mile from the target was the crew of the Lonesome Lady along with the survivors of two other flight crews that had been shot down.  One of those flight crews is suspected to  have included three men from the Taloa.    Amazingly, the solid brick walls somewhat withstood the force of the initial blast.  Nevertheless, only 3 of the prisoners are known to have survived the initial blast.  Included in the list of dead was Lonesome Lady crewman Lt. Durden W.  Looper.    US Navy pilot Normand Brissette and Lonesome Lady gunner Ralph Neal managed to get to a cesspool, where they remained nose deep in the muck until the flames died down.  When they emerged from their ghastly position, they were quickly recaptured by their guards.  That alone indicates the loyalty and fanaticism of the Japanese soldiers.  The city was totally destroyed by a nuclear weapons and they were still keeping an eye on a couple of US flyers who had hidden in a cesspool.

"Little Boy" Detonated 1870 Ft Above Aioi Bridge in Hiroshima

But, their hiding place could not escape their captors or the lasting effects of the atomic bomb.  With oozing sores and constant vomiting, the two men both died a terrible and slow death.  The third American prisoner who survived was not as lucky.  He was made a scapegoat for the destruction of the city.  No one knows for certain whom the flyer was but an eyewitness is said to have described him as “the handsomest boy I ever saw.”  He was tied to what was left of the Aioi Bridge with a sign hanging from him that read, “Beat This American Soldier Before You Pass.”  Lonesome Lady pilot Tom Cartwright survived the war.  Cartwright said that 50 POW’s were beheaded after the Japanese surrender but he was spared.  On August 28, a month after he was shot down, the POW camp where Cartwright was being housed was liberated by US Marines.  Of the 3000 Japanese Americans who were stranded in Hiroshima at the beginning of the war, about 1000 survived the atomic bomb and returned to the United States.

Andersonville Plaque Commemorating Flight Crews Killed Inadvertantly at Hiroshima

War often has unintended consequences.  The crew of the Lonesome Lady was in the wrong place at the wrong time.  Quite often, such stories are filled with “what ifs.”  What if the Cartwright had been able to control the plane just a little longer?  What if the plane went out of control toward the ocean instead of turning around back toward land?  Why did the Japanese spare the life of the pilot of the Lonesome Lady but subject a crewman to beating and torture while tied to the Aioi Bridge?  If any of these instances were altered, the story might have turned out differently.  But, alternative history is fantasy and it is what it is.   While the story of the tragic loss of the crew of the USS Indianapolis, which secretly delivered the bomb to Tinian Island is well known, the story of the Lonesome Lady is not.  There is however, a commemorative plaque at a memorial located at the infamous site of the Civil War Andersonville Prison in Georgia.

Weather Bottom Line:  A cold front will ease through the first part of the day and clouds will give way to some sunshine and afternoon heating may produce an errant afternoon shower behind the front.  We will have a short drying trend and also a short lived slight reduction in the heat.  Today we’ll most likely get to near 90 and Friday afternoon will be in the upper 80′s after a morning start in the low 70′s. Neither of those numbers are cool on their own but in relation to lows in the mid 70′s and highs in the low to mid 90′s, its an improvement. It won’t last though because the front comes back as a warm front bringing a chance of rain and t’storms with it on Saturday and then the higher heat and humidity after that along with the threat of scattered afternoon t’storms through at least mid week.

Douglas MacArthur: Duty, Honor, Country May 12, 2010

General Douglas MacArthur

Douglas MacArthur West Point Cadet

On this Date in History:  Douglas MacArthur was born in Little Rock, Arkansas on January 26, 1880.  He apparently had not done well in school but worked hard at the United States Military Academy and in 1903 graduated at the top of his 93-man West Point class.  As a member of the Army Corps of Engineers he went to the Philippines as a  First Lieutenant before becoming an aide-de-camp to President Theodore Roosevelt in 1906.  During World War I, he was decorated 13 times and had 7 citations for bravery.  In August 1918 he was promoted to Brigadier General and just 90 days later became the youngest division commander in France as he took command of the 42nd Division. 

Captain Douglas MacArthur 1916

After the war, he served as Superintendent of West Point where from 1919 to 1922 he modernized the curriculum and doubled the size of the institution.  Following his time at West Point, he took command of the newly formed Military District of Manila in the Philippines and in 1928 became the President of the United State Olympic Committee.  In 1930 he became the youngest US Army Chief of Staff and strived to modernize the relatively small 135,000 man army.  Up until World War II, the United States had a tradition of only raising a large standing army in time of war.  But, McArthur warned that the rising world tensions were a threat to the United States.  He said, “Pacifism and its bedfellow, Communism, are all about us. Day by day this cancer eats deeper into the body politic.”

Caesar and Ike Make Sure the Vets Get Out of Town

In 1932, World War I veterans marched on Washington demanding their bonus pay from their service in World War I.  The pay was not scheduled to be paid out until later but the veterans were in the need of the money at that time as the country slipped farther into depression.  The military was called out to control the veterans and MacArthur acted with extreme measures.  He had four troops of cavalry with drawn sabres as well as infantry with fixed bayonets supported by tanks to suppress the unrest.  He justified his action against the former soldiers by saying that he feared the United States was on the verge of a Communist revolution.  Also taking part in the actions were future President Dwight D. Eisenhower and future General George S. Patton, Jr.

Pearson Battled MacArthur

As might be expected, a journalist by the name of Drew Pearson wrote scathing articles about MacArthur including charges supported by MacArthur’s ex-wife that his former father-in-law had been instrumental in influencing the decision to promote the general to that of Major General.  MacArthur sued for nearly $2 million and the journalist appeared to be on the ropes when the former Mrs. MacArthur refused to testify.  But, Pearson must have been resourceful because he tracked down a supposed mistress of MacArthur’s who had been sent back to the Philippines.  Pearson acquired a bunch of love letters from Douglas to the woman and, when he presented them to the general, the lawsuit was dropped. 

MacArthur Returned After Much Hardship for US Soldiers Left Behind

President Franklin D. Roosevelt dispatched in 1935 MacArthur to the Philippines to help organize that nation’s defense.  MacArthur retired from the Army but stayed on as an advisor to the Philippines.  As negotiations with the Japanese Empire deteriorated, MacArthur was recalled to active duty by the president and he was charged with mobilizing Philippines defense with a budget of $10 million and a fleet of 100 B-17 bombers.   In October 1941, MacArthur reported that he had 227 aircraft, 135,000 troops and a “tremendously strong offensive and defensive force.”  MacArthur was greatly criticized for not moving his aircraft following Pearl Harbor as on Dec. 8, 1941 the Japanese attacked the Philippines and destroyed about half of his Air Force.  The Japanese invaded and by early 1942, MacArthur had ordered a retreat to Bataan.  On February 22, 1942 MacArthur was ordered to evacuate the Philippines to Australia.  He left behind General Jonathan Wainwright in command of 11,000 troops who managed to hold out against overwhelming forces until May.  Wainwright was forced to surrender but MacArthur had vowed to return.    While in Australia he became the Supreme Allied Commander of the Southwest Pacific and after many battles, Douglas MacArthur returned to the Philippines on October 20, 1944.  Eventually, he accepted the Japanese surrender on the deck of the USS Missouri anchored in Tokyo Bay on September 2, 1945.  He is credited with his leadership in rebuilding post war Japan into a strong democracy and the creation of a booming economic power.

MacArthur's Inchon Strategy Saved South Korea

MacArthur went on to lead the United Nation’s effort in the Korean War.  He had failings and successes.  His bold and daring move to land troops at Inchon on September 15, 1950 turned the tide of what looked to be a hopeless UN effort.  President Truman had told the general to limit the war to the Korean Peninsula as he was fearful of an expanded conflict with the Chinese or perhaps even another global conflict.  But, MacArthur disagreed and pushed the North Koreans so far north that it appeared that he might invade China.  In fact, that is what he favored doing and he began speaking out against the administration.  President Truman removed MacArthur from command in April 1951 and the general returned to actively campaigned against the Democrats in the upcoming election. He backed Republican Senator Robert Taft of Ohio but  General Dwight D. Eisenhower was elected in 1952.  Ike  consulted with MacArthur with regard to Korea.  After MacArthur recommended a nuclear attack on the enemy and also to attack China, Eisenhower gave him no role in the administration. 

JFK Notes From Consultation with MacArthur in 1961

In 1961, the retired general took over the reigns of the Remington Rand Corporation and its annual sales of $1.1 Billion.  But, he was in increasingly poor health.  He had several stints in the hospital and he became increasingly frail as he moved into his 80′s. He consulted on two occasions  with President Kennedy following the failed Bay of Pigs invasion.  He was extremely critical of the advice Kennedy was getting from the military and warned the President against a build-up of forces or involvement in Southeast Asia.  He later gave the same advice to President Johnson. 

MacArthur was arguably one of America’s most brilliant generals and also one of its most flawed.  He is often applauded and also criticized.  But, it was a speech he gave near the end of his life on this date in 1962 that perhaps is his most endearing memory.  Much like Ted Williams last hit (home run) or Michael Jordan’s final shot for the Chicago Bulls, General Douglas MacArthur went out in style.  Noting his failing health,  West Point honored MacArthur with the Sylvanus Thayer Award for outstanding service to the nation.  The year before, it had been bestowed upon General Eisenhower.  But, no one recalls the former President’s speech.  It is MacArthur’s speech that still echoes in the halls of West Point and the theme is one that I think many Americans could stand to hear today:  Duty, Honor, Country.

SPC Severe Outlook Thu AM to Fri AM

Thursday Evening

Weather Bottom Line:  Wednesday morning we had the remnant of those t’storms that had rumbled out west on Tuesday afternoon and night.  It would appear that the GFS had a better handle on the situation than the other models.  As the heating of the day wore on, those storms moved East of Louisville and dropped some fairly significant rains in some areas that really didn’t need it.  This slow moving big trof continues to trudge eastward slowly.  The boundary is still to our west moving slowly along the front of the trof.  It’s the same story with trying to time impulses moving through the flow.  The GFS illustrates pretty well the situation in that it indicates a whole mess of energy with the warm, moist unstable air.  That means that all it needs is a catalyst to tap into the moisture.  There really isn’t much in the way of veering so the helicity and SWEAT indeces aren’t too impressive for most of the day.  At 11 pm the GFS elevates the SWEAT to 431 which is reasonably high.  The SPC has us in the slight risk for severe thunderstorms as they feel there is not sufficient veering for tornadic activity for most of the day but the atmosphere would certainly support super cells that could produce large hail and wind.  I would say that if we were to get some super cells late and we have dynamics advertised briefly by the GFS then there could be support for tornadic activity as well.  Look, this is tough and it’s not clear cut.  The highest risk should be to our North but it’s worth paying attention to, especially in the afternoon and Thursday night.  If there is thunderstorm activity, I’d tune in to a local tv station to see if there is anything going on like a watch or something.  We may be dealing with scattered activity through the weekend but this Thursday to Friday timeframe is probably going to be the time of greatest risk.

We Need Lucky Luciano In Charge of Kentucky Derby Weather April 29, 2010

We Could Use His Help For Derby Day

Tony Soprano Tale Based on True Story?

On This Date In History: Remember how in the Sopranos that the FBI guys were trying to get Tony to help them out to catch terrorists? Well, in real life that sort of thing has happened in war-time. In WWII it has been said that the underworld controlled the docks in New York and that the government turned to the criminal element for national security help to prevent sabotage and capture spies. Though the veracity of the claim is unclear, US Navy Lieutenant Commander Charles Radcliffe Haffenden was put in charge of New York dock security and said:

Lansky American Patriot?

“I’ll talk to anybody, a priest, a bank manager, a gangster, the devil himself, if I can get the information I need. This is a war. American lives are at stake. “

When the government approached the mobsters to help out Uncle Sam with domestic dockside security, bigshot Meyer Lansky, recalled not being too impressed. He said, “Everybody in New York was laughing at the way those naive Navy agents were going around the docks. They went up to men working in the area and talked out of the side of their mouths, like they had seen in the movies, asking about spies.” Now, the USS Normadie had been converted to a troop ship (aka USS Lafayette) and on Feb. 9, 1942 it mysteriously burned (video) while at the New York docks. The suspicion was sabotage and the event spurred both the mob and the Feds to get together for the good of the country and the story is that the government stayed out of the activities of organized crime on the docks in return for security.

Luciano Happy To Help?

While he never actually acknowledged that he and his cohorts helped out in the war effort stateside, it is notable though that Lansky never denied helping the government. Anyway, the real boss in the New York syndicate was Charles “Lucky” Luciano who had risen through the ranks of organized crime after arriving in the US as a poor immigrant from Sicily earlier in the century. He earned the “Lucky” moniker by numerous escapes from “hits” put out on him by his competition. In 1943, Luciano was serving a 30-50 year prison sentence. The allies were planning on invading Sicily but didn’t have much intel. Luciano is portrayed as having an allegiance to the United States but he also had a vendetta against Benito Mussolini who had cracked down on the mafia in Italy in the 1920′s. So, on this date in 1942 US Naval intelligence asked for Luciano’s help as the Allies attempted to invade Italy. Lucky eventually agreed and the results were spectacular. With the hundreds of informants attracted with Luciano’s help,

Luciano Deported 1946

United States intelligence officers were able to infiltrate Italy’s naval headquarters and get all sorts of maps and documents. It is said that Luciano’s helpers were even able to convince some Italian soldiers not to fight…but they weren’t doing much of that anyway as the German army did most of the heavy lifting. Of course, the invasion was successful and the rest, as they say, is history.

The US Navy tried to cover its trail regarding the work with the underworld but eventually it came out with perhaps the greatest evidence being the inexplicable release of Luciano from prison in 1946 after serving just 10 years of his sentence. Luciano was deported to Sicily continuing his fame as being Lucky Luciano.

SPC Severe Weather Probability 7AM Derby Day to 7 AM Sunday

Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast: We’re going to need a lot of luck for Derby Day because,  if you want good weather for the Kentucky Derby, come back next year. Now, Oaks Day looks great.  But the story that I’ve been eyeballing all week is really getting lots of data supporting it.  In general, it would seem to me that we get a cold front coming close to us and it stalls.  It gets parallel to the Southwest to Northeast Jetstream flow and stays oriented from around Gary, IN to east of St. Louis to Texarkana and on through San Antonio.  At low levels, there will be lots of moisture converging up the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.   I think we’ll have two time frames of maximum rain as two separate jet streaks comes through associated with an upper low. 

GFS Over 2 inches on Derby Day

Oaks Day will be fine..in fact it will be great.  Oaks Day weather looks to be in the low to mid 80′s, breezy and partly cloudy.  Then the first disturbance and strong upper energy comes through bringing heavy rain from say 6 AM to Noon.  Then, I would think that we’d see more scattered activity on Saturday afternoon during most of the races and the condition of the track will be a function of how well the track drains.  The NAM follows what makes sense to me and is most likely as it has an inch of rain from 7AM to 1 Pm and then a tenth of an inch in the afternoon.  Then, the second wave comes through Saturday night with the strong upper jet winds as it may even develop into a surface feature.  If we get severe weather, it seems that this would be the most likely time and high winds would be the biggest bugaboo. But, the story will be rain.  The NAM concludes at 7PM on Sunday with a 36 hour total of about 4 inches.  I’m referring to the 12Z Thur run so it doesnt’ go beyond 7 PM on Sunday but I bet it would have slightly more rain in the offing.  This scenario seems most sensible  to me.

By Sunday Evening GFS dumps over 5 inches of rain for 36 hour total

HOWEVER….the GFS…has a similar solution except that it has heavy rain all day on Saturday and carries it through Sunday night.  By early Monday morning, the GFS has over 5.1″ of rain in less than 36 hours.  The biggest difference is that the GFS has substantially more rain during the races on Derby Day than the other models.  The GFS solution has been closest to what is now the consensus all week and it makes the least sense should we have two seperate jet streaks.  With two different streaks it would call for something less in between.  However, we are going to stay in a jet stream flow over the top of us and, if there is no confluence aloft to limit rain, then we would get persistent rain. 

The Derby will be wet one way or another.  The degree of wetness is the question.  For we locals, make sure that drains are clear because, unlike the South, our geology is  not conducive to supporting such rainfall….not to mention the pumps  of which I might remind the authorities only work properly if you turn them on!

Harry Towne: Great American Hero, Ordinary Citizen March 19, 2010

Iwo Jima Memorial Represents the Extraordinary Effort, Courage and Sacrifice of Ordinary Americans Serving a Cause Greater Than Themselves

Joe Rosenthal's Famous Photo from Iwo Jima Feb 23 1945...but the battle was far from over

On This Date in History:  There are several small volcanic islands in the Pacific Ocean.  As of June 18, 2007, one of those islands became known as Iwo To.   The name means “Sulpher” which apparently is also what Iwo Jima means.  But, according to USA Today, after the success of the Clint Eastwood Films, Flags of our Fathers and Letters From Iwo Jima, the Japanese decided to change the name back to Iwo To, which had been what the civilians had called it before the war.  The locals were happy that their island had been remembered, but for some reason, they didn’t like the name.  The Americans held the island until 1968 when the United States returned it to Japan and now it’s home to about 400 Japanese soldiers.  Those “locals” don’t even live there anymore. 

Over 26,000 people died fighting for this 8 sq mile island

Anyway, in 1944 the Americans had gained control of the Mariana Islands which gave them a place from which to make direct bombing raids on the Japanese mainland with B-29′s.  However, the proximity of the 8 square mile island was such that the Japanese staged several rather destructive raids on B-29 bases around the Pacific.  So, that made Iwo Jima a target for US invasion.  The small island is made up of tough, ignatious rock and features the cone of what is thought to be an extinct volcano that rises about 550 feet above sea level.  With 21,000 Japanese defenders, it made for a natural fortress.  The Americans had bombed it often from the last part of 1944 through early 1945 but the Japanese use of the island’s geography rendered much of that bombing ineffective.  So, on February 19, 1945 the US Marine Corps sent 3 divisions onto the volcanic shores following a 3 day naval bombardment. (numerous videos from History.com)

Marines Received Heavy Fire After Hitting the Beach

The battle of Iwo Jima lasted 37 days:  Over a month for 8 square miles.  The Japanese strategy involved using the deep fortified bunkers dug in the volcanic rock to withstand all of the bombs and naval gunfire  the US could muster and then called for no Japanese survivors.  In other words, defend the island to the death.  And that’s exactly what happened as the Japanese were fighting on home soil that was only 650 miles from Tokyo.  Japanese commander Lieutenant General Tadamichi Kuribayashi was a seasoned and dedicated leader who called on his men to kill 10 Americans before they were killed.  The fighting was horrific and while the Americans made some headway, the going was extremely slow.  By the time it was over, more than 6000 Americans had given their lives while 20,000 of the Japanese defenders were killed. 

With Enemy Holding High Ground of Hill 362, Even Off the Front Lines Rifle and Mortar Fire Was Heavy. Towne Was on the Front Line

One of the Americans in the fight was Harry Towne of Madison, Wisconsin.  He was a corporal who, on February 27, 1945 led his Company I, Third Battalion, Twenty-Seventh Marines, FIFTH Marine Division against a fortified enemy position guarding the approach to Hill 362.  In the successful assault, squad leader Towne was wounded as he and his men negotiated the pill boxes and caves defended by men who held the high ground.  Very tough.  In the back and forth of battle, the Japanese made a strong counter attack and Towne, though wounded, directed his men with hand signals and by voice.  Towne remained exposed to withering Japanese fire and tossed grenades from his position.  He did not retreat.  For his extraordinary heroism and devotion to duty, Corporal Towne received the Navy Cross as described in his citation issued by President Truman.

Catholic Chaplain Offers Communion Amidst the Battle

The citation says much about Towne but doesn’t really mention much about his wound.  But, a letter he wrote to his mother on this date in 1945 reminds us that the stories of history are filled with people.  They have dreams and hopes and loves like everyone else.  Some are allowed to go on to live thier lives while others have a destiny that ends with the final words written about them.  In this case, Harry Towne lived to tell his own story:

“Dear Mom,

I don’t know if you have heard that I was wounded or not Mom.  I asked a Chaplain to write you, so you probably know about it.

I am coming along fine now and expect to be in the States before long.  I was wounded quite badly, Mother, but the Navy Medical Corps will fix me up like new again.  In a year or less I shall be able to walk just as before.

Don’t let this be a shock to you, Mother, I will be in almost as good shape as before now that they have these new artificial limbs.  Yes, Mother, I have lost my right leg, but it isn’t worrying me a bit.  I shall receive a pension for the rest of my life and with the new artificial limb, you can hardlytell anything is wrong. 

I lost my leg on the front lines of Iwo Jima on February 27, but have been moved around so much I couldn’t write.  I would like to write to Alma, but somehow I can’t force myself to do it.  You write and tell her, Mother.  I’ll try to write to her later on.

Don’t worry, Mom, the war for me is ended and I should be see you by fall. 

Love, [Harry]“ 

 (Letters of the Century: America 1900-1999. Lisa Grunwald and Stephen J. Adler, ed. Random House, New York: 1999, pg 308)

Litter Bearers Risked Their Lives to Evacuate Brave Men Like Harry Towne

While Harry Towne was trying to reassure his mother and show a positive outlook, you can hear his anguish with how he struggles in even writing about his condition.  His frequent use of “Mother” shows that he is writing much as if he were speaking to her on the phone, searching for the right words to say.   His true feelings about his fate are revealed when he admits that he cannot bring himself to write to tell Alma, whom we presume is a wife or sweetheart.  This simple note reveals that this man suffered an injury so severe that his leg had to be amputated yet he perservered under extreme conditions to serve his country and support his men.  It also shows that behind the heroic tales of the American soldier in World War II, were ordinary American citizens who, while serving a cause larger than themselves, did extraordinary things.  We owe them a debt of gratitude.  I’d like to think that all American citizens are capable of making the same sacrifice if called today.  As an individual, you will have to determine if your devotion to country could lead you to follow the example of Harry Towe if called.

What a Difference a Day Makes. No NAM Snow Sunday AM

Weather  Bottom Line:  Thursday morning the models did a huge flop…which is why a forecast can be a flop if you start chortling about snow 5 days prior to the potential event.  I probably said too much about that yesterday and did not emphasize that the variables involved were many.  There had been a consistency though for days regarding the solution.  I recognize that the same level of uncertainty remains even with though new model runs of Thursday morning were almost identical.   That variability still shows up with later runs as they have changed a bit again.

What happened to the GFS Snow Sunday Morning?

What they did was instead of digging a big trof down with a cold front and running a low up along the front to give wrap around snow behind the boundary, they made the southern low cut off from the main jet stream and the general trof lifted north.  In the later runs of the day, the kinda started inching back to their initial solution with the trof staying in place for a longer duration but just prior to the front’s arrival in the Ohio Valley, then it cut off the low and ran it up over the Ohio Valley.  In fact, the Canadian model doesn’t fully cut off the low until it’s almost on top of our area.  So..what to do.  How about wait and see what happens?  That’s really all one can do. 

Weather Dunce

All along, intuitively it seemed unlikely that we’d get snow as the air wasn’t that cold and the trof not that deep.  But…it was there.  Now, the problem is that the models suddenly shifted to a completely new solution and then followed that up with something in between.  Often, when an event is on the way, the models are set on a game plan, change it suddenly and then when it all shakes out, it ends up being what was called for in the first place. My guess is that regardless of the particulars, we will be 40′s on Sunday and Monday.  The initial scenario of 30′s is still possible but it would seem the cautious approach of not even mentioning that potential until we got closer to the day was the wise move.  I get the dunce cap for that.  After a string of victories…humility came calling.  But..whatever..Friday will be lovely with highs nearing 70 and clouds increasing Saturday will be the only damper on a day in the upper 60′s to near 70.  Rain will still be likely on Saturday night and Sunday with a possible t’storm or two.  And the temperatures will still rebound by midweek.  As for snow…we’ll just have to wait and see…just in case.

US Army Meets Its Match in World War II March 18, 2010

Even Bombers Have Limitations

An Unstoppable Invader Came to Cercola, Italy

On This Date in History:   In 1943, the Allies began the attack on what Winston Churchill called the “soft underbelly of Europe.”   It started with the invasion of Sicily in July.   By September, allied troops crossed the straight of Messina to land on the “toe” of Italy.   The American 8th Army bulled its way through Calabria with other yankee troops moving in near Salerno.  Canadian forces landed near Reggio Calabria and faced light opposition.  The Canucks took advantage and rapidly moved inland in about two weeks and secured Potenza, which is about 50 miles east of Salerno.  Now, the Italians had had enough of Mussolini and of the war and so they finally got rid of Il Duce and also unconditionally surrendered.  Their German allies quickly disarmed all of the Italian forces that they could find and decided to make a slow, fighting withdrawl from the peninsula to the North.  So, in January 1944, the allies came up with a plan.

Vesuvius Did to the B-25s What the Germans Could Not

It involved another amphibious landing at Anzio, which is along the coast about 30 miles South of Rome.  It was also about 45 miles behind the German lines.  It so surprised the Germans that the allies landed with no resistance.  That surprised the American commander.  Now, back in September 1943, the Canadians took advantage of a similar situation and moved rapidly inland.  But, Maj. General John P. Lucas headed the American landing and his orders were a bit vague.  He was to draw as much of the enemy fire from the frontlines to his south and prepare a defensive position.  Part of that included gaining control of the Alban Hills which were within easy reach with such limited resistance.  But, Lucas apparently took note of the part of preparing a defensive postion.  Instead of exploiting the opportunity to advance, he took a slow, defensive posture.  That allowed the Germans to react and the soldiers ended up with a long tough fight over land that might otherwise have been taken largely uncontested. 

Vesuvius Still Blowing Its Top on Mar 23 1944

But, as it turns out, the Germans may not have been the most prohibitive foe that the allies faced.  Because, on this date in 1944, Mount Vesuvius awakened for an eruption that lasted 5 days.  So fearsome was the volcano known for its burial of Pompeii that the USS Philadelphia retreated for the only time during its 8 years in service.   But, that was a ship at sea and it was able to flee rather easily.  Forces on the ground weren’t so lucky.  By March 23, most of the 340th Bombardment Groups B-25 Mitchells were covered in hot ash that burned the control surfaces  and melted or glazed the plexiglass.   A few planes were so weighted down that they tipped on their tails.  Somewhere between 78 and 88 planes were destroyed, which was more than the 340th suffered in a Luftwaffe attack in Corsica 3 months later.   There were no deaths or major casualties at the Pompeii airfield but, despite the best efforts of the 12th Air Force, the aircraft were out of commission for some time.   The 340th wasn’t the only group affected as several bomber and fighter groups had to deal with Mount Vesuvius as did the ground troops.  Presumably, Vesuvius caused problems for the Germans too as an equal opportunity nemesis. 

Vesuvius Left Quite an Impression with the US Air Corps

Other air military operations were affected greatly such as  the 57th Fighter Group at Cercola, Itlay.  The general population had more hardship brought on top of that brought on by warfare.  Ash covered gardens and homes all the way from Vesuvius to Salerno and many civilians were homeless.  Lava covered many roads and caused great disruption.   Germany eventually surrendered and the Americans eventually got the bomb that brought the war to a close.  But, no army on earth can stand against Mother Nature.  Hurricanes, tornados, floods and earthquakes don’t care which side you are on and will devastate the mightest of armed forces.  And Mount Vesuvius still stands as the unconquered champion of the Italian peninsula, ready to awaken in an angry fit to vanquish all potential foes.  Keep in mind, that the eruption of Mt. Vesuvius during World War II was the last time the mountain came alive.  Seems like its due.   Check out these photos from Mt. Vesuvius Mar 18-23 1944.

NAM Snow Total by 8AM Sunday

Weather Bottom Line:  First off, beware…the “S” word is still in the dictionary.  Now,  I’m sure that some published or broadcast forecasts made some mention that the clouds on Wednesday just didn’t cooperate.   The truth is that they amazingly behaved exactly like the models said that they would.  We were right on the fringe of the clouds deck almost all day.  My guess is that we had a high deck over the low deck.  Late in the day,  the high clouds thinned out and the sun did a job on the low deck with Louisville breaking out in some sunshine by about 5 pm.  Otherwise, the day was as I warned about and that was with clouds and mid 50′s.  It was not until the sun came out that we nudged over 60.  Now, that will move out and look for sunshine for Thursday and Friday with highs generally in the mid 60′s, possibly some upper 60′s on Friday for some.  Saturday just about everyone will be in the mid to upper 60′s with the exception being those who tickle 70.  That sets the stage for rain with perhaps t’storms on Saturday night. 

GFS Snow Total Sunday 8AM

Now, I mentioned it a few days ago and were getting closer to it. I know that most forecasts call for highs in the 40′s or 50′s on Sunday.  But,  from where I sit, we may not get out of the 30′s.  And both the GFS and NAM have snow falling in the wake of the front on Sunday morning.  Both feature the most significant snowfall to our east…like Lexington.  But, its not out of the question for snow around here early Sunday morning…which may make for an interesting drive to church.  I doubt if it will be too troublesome though because the ground will be warm and it probably won’t be as extensive as the GFS is saying, which is almost two inches.  But, it’s there…after all…Spring just starts on Saturday so its not unheard of.  Monday will be cloudy and in the low to mid 40′s before the sun returns and warms things up pretty quickly for the rest of the week.  This should be interesting to see how it shakes out.

This Model Was Ford Tough March 12, 2010

Recognize the Male Model?

Looks Like Herman Goering on cover of First Look Magazine Feb 1937

On This Date in History:

Look magazine was founded by Gardner “Mike” Cowles, Jr and his brother John. Mike was the executive editor of two newspapers in Iowa and started a new magazine in January of 1937…at least it was supposed to be in January. For some reason they skipped the first issue and the first released issue was Volume I number 2 in February 1937. For a few months it was a weekly magazine but then changed around June or so to a bi-weekly. Life magazine had begun a few months earlier and is generally more well known, though both magazines were very similar. Life was known for its photographs and Look also had very little verbiage but was heavy on the photos. Look was a hit very quickly as almost out of the gate it was selling nearly a million copies per issue. By 1948, they were up to 2.9 million and it peaked in 1969 with 7.75 million copies. That apparently wasn’t good enough though because TV really took a toll on advertising. Look lost about $5 million in revenue in 1970 and, in spite of a 6.65 million circulation. On October 19, 1971 Look magazine went out of business. Several months later in 1972, Life magazine also called it quits.

Ford and Brown Also Modeled for the Cover of Cosmo in April 1942

In 1940, war was going on in Europe and Asia but America was still at peace. Americans were hopeful that the country could stay out of the conficts building around the world that would later become World War II. Now, as I had said, Look magazine wasn’t heavy on the written word but instead depended on photographs. Often, there would be a pretty long caption under any given photo and the actual article was relatively short. On this date in 1940, there was a six page article that featured a Yale law student who also was a partner in a New York modeling agency and served as an assitant coach for the Yale football team. Odd combination…law student, model agency executive and football coach. The subject kinda fell into the modeling agency partnership because it was his girlfriend, Phyllis Brown, who made the arrangements for the business venture.

Gerry Looking Ford Tough

The title of the article was “A New York Girl and Her Yale Boy Friend Spend a Hilarious Holilday on Skis.” The “New York Girl” was none other than Phyllis Brown herself, who also was a model for Cosmopolitan magazine. The young Yale law student who was the subject was her boyfriend. His name was Gerald R. Ford. He went on to become a respected member of the United States House of Representatives. Then he was appointed to the post of Vice-President by President Nixon following the resignation of Vice-President Spiro T. Agnew. He then ascended to the presidency as, with the resignation of President Nixon, Gerald R. Ford became the 38th President of the United States.

Ford At Michigan 1933

Following Watergate, being the President from 1974 to 1977 was difficult for Ford and would have been for anyone. The economy was in the tank, South Vietnam was in the process of being taken over by the communist north following the pull-out of American troops in 1973. The man who replaced him, President Carter, became great friends with Ford and the two presidents even pledged to speak at the other’s funeral, depending on who died first. Carter lived up to the pledge. Ford was ridiculed by Chevy Chase on Saturday Night Live for being somewhat clumsy. That was always odd because Ford had been a top flight athlete. Many consider him to be one of the greatest football players in the University of Michigan’s history, where he did his undergraduate work. He even turned down the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers. Nevertheless, Ford apparently was already known in Washington political circles as being somewhat of a tanglefoot. When Lyndon Johnson was in Congress, history says that Ford “couldn’t walk and chew gum at the same time.” However, history often cleans things up and the real quote concerning Ford by Johson is that Ford couldn’t “fart and chew gum at the same time.” Gotta love that Lyndon.

Ford With Golden Retriever "Liberty" in Oval Office

His christened name was Gerald Rudolf Ford, Jr., but he generally went by “Jerry” and signed his name accordingly and for some reason changed the spelling of his middle name to Rudolph. But, that wasn’t the only name change that he had. He had been born in 1913 as Leslie Lynch King, Jr. His mother and father divorced in December 1913 and in 1916 his mother married Gerald R. Ford, Sr. He became Gerald R. Ford, Jr. at that time but he was never legally adopted by his step-father and he didn’t get around to legally changing his name until 1935.

A lot of “what ifs” in there. Had Ford played professional football instead of going to law school, would his life had been the same? If his mother had not married who he did or if she had stayed married to his father, would he have accomplished as much? Who knows…but speculation is silly. The fact is that he was extremely successful and quite accomplished. One would think that being President would stand head and shoulders above all other feats. But, Ford was an Eagle Scout and he put that accomplishment near the top of his list of proudest accomplishments. Here is what he had to say about it:

“One of the proudest moments of my life came in the Court of Honor when I was awarded the Eagle Scout badge. I still have that badge. It is a treasured possession. I am the first Eagle Scout Vice President. The three great principles which Scouting provides—self-discipline, teamwork, and moral and patriotic values—are the basic building blocks of leadership. I applaud the Scouting program for continuing to emphasize them. I am confident that your ability to bring ideals, values, and leadership training to millions of our young people will help to bring about a new era—a time in which not only our Republic will progress in peace and freedom, but a time in which the entire world shall be secure, and all its people free.”

Values and principles….what a novel idea for a politician and a president to have.

SPC Severe Weather Outlook for Friday March 12 2010

SPC Severe Hail Risk Friday

Weather Bottom Line:   As I mentioned yesterday, we have a slight chance for some severe weather to wind up the week, though we often think of wind and tornadoes when we hear about “severe weather.”  In this case, it would most likely come in the form of hail.  The lapse rates look supportive of such activity.  However, whether or not its a widespread event is up in the air.  We won’t have the sun to help raise t’storms sufficiently to produce hailers…but…this piece of energy coming out from the unsettled pattern in the Southwest will behave a little differently from the others this past week in that this guy should come almost straight up the Mississippi Valley gut and into the Ohio Valley.  So, that feature itself will have an opportunity to provide enough instability to help elevate storms sufficiently to produce hail.  Those storms that might bring hail would also bring the prospect of gusty winds. 

SPC Tornado Risk Friday...Gusty winds more likely than twisters

Now, I mentioned yesterday about some odd indications of snow but I kinda hurrumphed about that.  While that seems very unlikely, the scenario that would bring that about is still there.  This low that is coming up over us will most likely get stuck and even back up to the west instead of racing off to the northeast.  So, as it goes by it comes back and parks itself somewhere northwest of Cincinnati for the weekend.  It will hold temperatures down for the weekend with highs probably in the upper 40′s under cloudy skies and provide passing showers.  So, I hope you enjoyed our 70 degree day on Wednesday because the weekend looks gloomy…good for watching basketball.  But, there is no surge of polar air coming down so after this mess gets out to start the week, then we get back to a regime of mild conditions with temperatures recovering as the week goes on.

Car Ahead of Its Time For All Time February 17, 2010

1946 Volkswagen

Volkswagen 1975...not much difference after 31 years

On This Date in History:  Back in the early 1930′s, the world was mired in a global depression.  Europe was still reeling from the effects of the First World War.  Consumer consumption of products was low.  So, in 1933, the United States swore in a new president.  Franklin D. Roosevelt went about trying to revive the American economy.  In Europe, the leader of a nation went to a young automobile engineer with a proposal that was in the form of a demand.  Ferdinand Porsche had developed a reputation as an outstanding designer during his tenure at Daimler-Benz and Auto-Union and had developed his own consulting business.  He was asked to come up with a small car that seated four people, had a durable air-cooled engine that got 4o miles per gallon and was priced at less than $250 (1000 German Marks).   The leader of Germany even had a name for the yet-to-be-created car:  The Volkswagen which means “people’s car.”

What was mistaken (by me) as a 1944 Volkswagen Wartime Staff Car Variation Is Really A Mercedez Benz 170 Da OTP(Open Touring Police) as per it's owner, Richard.

Of course, the leader was Adolph Hitler and a few months later, he ordered 3 prototypes to be built and also more or less ordered the nation’s manufacturers to supply the parts.  Porsche was in a fix.  The engineering was not the problem but instead it was the economics.  The man who perfected the mass production of automobiles, Henry Ford, turned out cars at a low cost but even his cars ran about $800.  It was a daunting task to undercut Henry Ford by over 2/3 and still produce a quality car.  Given that the request came from the German Chancellor who was gathering unrivaled political power through both legal and violent means, the pressure must have been enormous.   But, old Ferdinand had a secret.  See, Hitler demanded delivery of the prototypes in just 10 months but Porsche was ahead of the game.   The year before he had designed a rear engine, air-cooled small car on his own.   But, there was the issue of the cost.  So, it was back to the drawing board.

VW Kubelwagen 1944-Germany's Answer to the Jeep

But Porsche had other interests as he split time with his efforts to help German racing teams and he was more interested in that than in living up to Hitler’s public announcements that soon there would be an affordable car for all Germans.  And the German Automobile Manufacturers Society wasn’t exactly racing to provide materials because they knew all they were doing was helping create a new competitor in the market.  Porsche though was still pushed so he went to America to take notes on how the Americans mass-produced cars.  He determined that there was no way that the German financial system could support the development of such an endeavor and that the government would have to do it.  As it turns out, before production of the people’s car could get off the ground, Hitler started invading countries all over Europe.  The factory never delivered what has become known as the Beetle.  Instead, the factory was retooled and an stronger, more powerful rear engine  open vehicle was created called the Kubelwagen.  It had similar capabilities of the American Jeep.  It also served as the German Staff Car during the war.  Later, the Kubelwagen variation created by Porsche came back to life as the VW Thing.

1974 VW Thing Looks A Lot Like 1944 Kubelwagen

But, the Thing came about after the Beetle and the Beetle, aka the people’s car, did not come to life until after the end of the Second World War.  The factory fell into the British zone of divided post-war Germany.  The British needed to keep workers busy so, after finding the blueprint of Porsche’s design, the put the factory personnel to work.  By 1948, the British put BMW designer Dr. Ing. Heinz Nordhoff in charge of Volkswagen.  Nordoff remained at the helm when the plant was turned over to the new West German government and by 1955, Beetle number 1,000,000 rolled off the assembly line as the first European car to ever achieve such a production level.  But, they weren’t done.  Americans stationed overseas had first brought the Beetle to the states as a second car.  But, quickly, the car that was dwarfed by the mammoth cars put out by Detroit fulfilled Hitler’s promise to the American people.  While it was slow and quite small, the Volkswagen was very durable, required little maintainance, was very miserly with gas compared to American gas guzzlers and was generally affordable for people who otherwise could not afford cars. 

Porsche: The Real Genius Behind the Beetle

Henry Ford with his Model T had acheived that objective before the Beetle, before Hitler and before anyone else.  But, by the 1950′s Detroit kinda moved away from that business model and the Beetle fit that nitch market quite nicely.  And it continued to do so.  On this date in 1972, Volkswagen put out Beetle number 15,007,034 rolled off the assembly line to surpass Ford’s Model T for the most produced car in all of history.  While Volkswagen became the name of the company instead of the car, and the original Beetle model was eventually discontinued in the United State and replaced by a new, more expensive Beetle with more of the luxuries that Americans demand, the old model Beetle remains in production in Mexico.   Seems that every time I’ve been in Mexico, the cab I rode in was either a Beetle or a Thing…both relics of World War II.  Most people though think that Hitler came up with the Beetle and he didn’t;  it was Ferdinand Porsche.  And what became known as the Beetle wasn’t even offered to the public until after the war.  I think the story of the People’s Car is a good metaphor for Hitler in some regards because he falsely took credit for someone else’s genius and he then made a promise to the people that he never kept.

NWS snowfall depiction through Tue Feb 15 2010

Weather Bottom Line: I don’t have much to add today except that I had about 4.5 inches of snow at my house and the National Weather Service had an official total for the event through early Tuesday of just around 4 inches with the weather service office closer to 5 inches or so.   Yet, the newspaper trumpted in it’s headlines Tuesday morning “6 Inches and Counting.”  It reminds of of the flood in parts of the city in early August when the paper quoted all of these rain totals that were based on rumor and not fact as no measuring device could come close to verifying what city officials and the paper claimed.  But, to be sure, some folks got a little more than 5-6 inches of snow and some got less.  From driving around it seems like Jefferson County got 4-5 inches in general with the 6-8 inch totals falling north of the river or northeast of Louisville.  The NWS made a very general map seen above.  A few flurries on Wednesday and it stays cold.  The next system seems to be falling behind with the models and there is a better than fair chance that we warm up a little and get rain for the second half of the weekend before a little snow on the tail end for Monday.  But, there is no consensus with this solution except that the GFS is starting to show some consistency. We’ll have to see how it shakes out over the next few days but I strongly suspect its more of a rain event than snow.

World War II Outlay Dwarfed Current Defense Budget January 31, 2010

America Awakened To Sacrifice For World Peace

On this Date in History: Yesterday, I had a column on Franklin D. Roosevelt and his personal determination to overcome his polio related disability.  I spoke of how that inspiration helped lead to the eradication of polio in the Western Hemisphere and the continued effort today to terminate the terrible disease world wide.  I said it was perhaps his greatest legacy.  Well, that determination and attitude also helped raise the nation in a time of crisis.

FDR declared War on Dec 8 1941 and laid out blue print for victory on Jan 6 1942 challenging the nation to do what seemed impossible. The nation responded and then some..

When the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, US  military production had increased to help the British utilizing the Lend Lease program.  So, the effects of the Great Depression were starting to wane.  But, the US entry into World War II absolutely ended the Depression.  On January 6, 1942 President Roosevelt gave his State of the Union Address and set out a bold objective.  He said that the US would produce 60,000 planes, 45, 000 tanks, 20,000 anti-aircraft guns and 6 million tons of merchant shipping.   No nation had ever produced such numbers and it was especially difficult to fathom given that, in spite of the increased production of the late 1930′s, much of the nation’s industrial capacity remained underutilized.  But, as he had defied polio, President Roosevelt would not take no as an answer.  He simply stated, “Let no man say it cannot be done!”

Ford Was In Charge of the Final Assembly of the B-24 Liberator

See, the industrial capacity of the United States was far greater than any other nation in the world.  Even during the depression, the auto industry produced about 3 million cars a year.  And Washington would look to Detroit to meet its war production goals.  The auto makers had been accepting government contracts outside of their auto production business to help with lend-lease.  The corporate heads of the auto industry said that they would be glad to help but wanted to continue to produce private cars in addition to taking on additional contracts.  It’s as if the big wheels in Detroit had no clue as to gravity of the situation or the breadth of the task required.  It has often been said that World War II was the first war in which machines operated by men would determine the outcome.  Whomever could build the most and best machines would have the great advantage.  But, Roosevelt knew what was needed and he sprang a little suprise on the auto chieftans.   Private automobile production was banned.  So, they had no choice.

Chrysler Ran the Mammoth Detroit Tank Arsenal

With no more cars to build, Detroit geared up for war.  On this date in 1942, the last private vehicles from Studebaker, Plymouth and Chrysler rolled off the assembly lines.  There was some down time for labor as factories were retooled in the auto industry as well as just about all facets of American production.  Because the winners  get to write history, we often hear of the “German War Machine.”   We refer to Detroit and the United States in general as the “Arsenal of Democracy.”  The truth is, by the end of World War II, the United States of America became the biggest war machine the world has ever seen.  The numbers are daunting.  Rationing of necessary materials like tires, gasoline and sugar was implemented.  Construction of highways and roads was halted.  While the poohbahs of the auto industry might not have gotten it, the American people did as drives to collect old tires and paper sprang up all across the nation.  Not only did most Americans not complain about rationing, they also pitched in by growing personal “victory gardens” in an effort to produce their own food and allow the general food supply to be used to meet the needs of the war. 

Sparkplug factories converted to machine gun production.  Lifeboats were made by a company that formerly produced stoves.  A corset maker turned to something at least that resembled its expertise; grenade belts.  Compasses were made by a toy company, Merry-go-round production turned to gun turrets and a pinball machine company made armor piercing shells.   And of course, Detroit turned out tanks, jeeps and other motorized vehicles as well as aircraft engine plants.  As it turns out, the ambitious war time production goals set out by President Roosevelt were modest. 

Admiral Yamamoto

 By 1944, the US had far surpassed those objectives as well as adding 5000 ships to the merchant fleet.  The turnaround in the industrial might of the United States was stunning.  Winston Churchill commented that “the United States is like a giant boiler; Once the fire is lit under it, there is no limit to the power it can generate.”   Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto of the Japanese empire was Harvard educated and had been stationed in Washington during the depression.  He had seen America’s dormant factories but noted the “industrial might” that nation had in slumber.  It is said that after he was told that the Japanese ultimatum was delivered to Washington nearly an hour after the attack on Pearl Harbor, he supposedly said, “I’m afraid all we have done is awaken a sleeping giant and filled him with a terrible  resolve.”   Now it is questioned if he ever said those words but most historians do not doubt that was his feeling.  Either way it’s a good quote and is right on the mark.

US Defense spending today vs GDP miniscule compared to WW II

In 1940, the GDP of the US was $101 billion with federal spending making up over 17% and defense expenditures up to over 9% of the GDP.  Even though increased defense spending in the late 1930′s and helped the economy, unemployment was still had 14.6% or about 46% higher than it was at the end of 2009.  By 1944, unemployment in the United States stood at 1.2%.  By the end of the war, the GDP had increased 73% from 5 years earlier to $174 billion, defense made up about 37% of the GDP and federal spending represented a whopping 89% of the GDP.  During the Korean War, the US spent over 14.2% of GDP on the defense and at the height of the Vietnam War it was 9.4%.  The defense budget for fiscal year 2010 represents about 4.7% of GDP but makes up about a fifth of federal spending.  Still…4.7%.  In order to reach the level we had in World War II, the defense budget would have to increase about 900%.  That should give some perspective and allow your mind to wonder about what the true military might our nation still possesses. 

2010 US Federal Budget

The US is often criticized around the world for its military power…until some needs the US to help in the event of a natural disaster or threat from an unruly neighbor.  George Washington, in my mind, is the greatest of US presidents because he set the precedent of so many aspects that our nation continues to follow.  Washington said, “To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace.”  The founders of the nation knew this and the Great Seal of the United States reflects this ideal as the eagle holds olive branches and 13 arrows in its talons to represent “peace through strength.”  Throughout the history of the United States, it is in times when the nation had a weak military that major wars broke out.  The most glaring example is following World War I when the US had almost disarmed completely disarmed.  Many historians question whether the axis powers would have become so emboldened if the US had maintained a strong military capability. 

The Great Seal of the United States of America

What I find interesting is that its tough to find a nation in history that had overwhelming military capabilities that did not use it to conquor and dominate peoples and nations.  To be sure, the US military can be a persuasive tool in geopolitics but, no nation has ever been so reluctant to unleash its military might as the US has been.  Yes, there have been many military conflicts but, aside from the Indian Wars, it has always been used for mainly for virtuous reasons of freedom of others or defense, though there are always secondary considerations.   And after victory, the US routinely eventually returns the nation to the people, which is very odd…and something that is rarely recognized or appreciated around the world.  Let us hope that the United States never again must unleash its full potential.

Midwest Snow Depth

Weather Bottom Line:  Well, it appeared that my initial idea of several days ago that we’d get 4 inches of snow was pretty good.  Another example of why one should stick with the original thought.  I think I got about 3 inches at the old homestead and the National Weather Services put Jefferson County at about 3-5 inches.  It was really pretty interesting because we started gettting snow about 1 am but the dewpoint was still just 8.  The flakes were many but very small.  It was like a giant flurry event.  By 1:30 visibility had diminished greatly but it was still small flakes.  At 2 am the dewpoint had risen to about 11 or 14 (can’t remember which) but we were in a lull in the snow. I went to bed.  When Snow White and I got up today, our porch and door was covered as the wind drifted the snow all over our porch and the little nest we keep for our adopted stray cat Paintbrush.  He was quite upset but when he came around to see if we had fixed his bed, we gave him a whole bunch of food so that seemed to quell his anger.  Then he went out to look for the ladies.

It May Be Colder Than This

If we get clear skies and no wind, I betcha we get to the low to mid single digits overnight…someone is going to get near zero…  I seriously question the double digit lows that I’ve seen advertised on TV and I still don’t think we get above freezing on Sunday.  Looking at the longer term, while I don’t see any periods of extreme cold, overall I don’t see any days beyond the mid 40′s with most days at or below average for the forseeable future.  I don’t see it now but maybe we’ll get another shot a  good snow. But, this was pretty as Snow White and I enjoyed our trek around the neighborhood, stomping in the snow and looking at the beautiful portrait painted by nature.  You should really take time to see it.

Pearl Harbor Attack Foretold in 1925, Carryed Out in War Games in 1932; Burginsaurus Comes to Life December 7, 2009

CLICK IMAGE FOR VERY REVEALING ARCHIVED FILM FOOTAGE

Aftermath of Pearl Harbor Attack

On This Date In History:  On December 7, 1941 the Japanese Empire attacked the United States of America in a sneak attack on the naval and army installations in Hawaii. Some 2500 Americans lost their lives. I will spare the details of the “date that will live in infamy” but I will say that I think there are many who have forgotten or choose to ignore history. As we saw in September 2001, similar incidents are still possible. Admiral Yamamoto, the architect of the event, had lived in the United States and knew of the nation’s industrial potential even though it had been mired in depression for the previous decade. He feared he had “awakened a sleeping giant and given him great resolve.” He was right.  Ultimately, the attack resulted in the destruction of Japan. I do wonder though what it takes for this nation to have great resolve today. In 1945, the US and its allies eliminated the threat of further attacks by those who attacked us to ensure that they could not do it again.

Sinking of USS West Virginia and USS Tennessee

In both 1941 and 2001,  part of the blame was put on intelligence failures.  Leading up to December 7, 1941 there were plenty of clues.  One of which was on the bookshelves at the local library.  Hector C. Bywater wrote The Great Pacific War in 1925.  He was a British naval intelligence officer who spelled out exactly how the Japanese would go to war with the United States.  Bywater said that Japan’s military ambition would be to conquer China and Korea in order to plunder those nation’s raw materials.  He said in order to achieve the goal,  Japan would first have to destroy or cripple the American forces in the Pacific.  He said that it would go after strategic targets and thought that the US Naval base in Manila Bay would be the first target.  That part wasn’t exactly right but the rest was on the money.

Yamamoto: Brilliant or Just a Good Reader?

Now, as I mentioned, Isoroku Yamamoto had lived in the United States and, in fact, was living in Washington DC in 1925 when Bywater’s book was published.  Yamamoto was working as a naval attache who was fluent in English and could not have missed the fact that the book was out because it was even reviewed by the New York Times.  Beside that, The Great Pacific War and also a study Bywater had done in 1921 titled Sea Power and the Pacific were both available in Japan and both were circulated among Japanese military officers.   In later years, Japanese military historian Mitsuo Fuchida said that both works were part of the curriculum at the Japanese Naval War College in 1936.  Students at the war college were asked on an exam, “How would you attack Pearl Harbor?” 

Everyone But Those In Charge Knew Pearl Harbor Was Vulnerable From the Air

Americans had the answer.  A widely publicized attack was launched during  war games by US Admiral Harry Yarnell with an attack from aircraft carriers in 1932 in an exhibition designed to prove the vulnerability of Pearl Harbor to attack.  No one can say for sure if this demonstration by Admiral Yarnell or the published work by Bywater influenced Yamamoto at all.  He was a pretty smart guy and apparently everyone except those who were supposed to know knew the weaknesses of Pearl Harbor.  Yamamoto never said because he was killed on April 18, 1943 when the plane he was in was targeted and shot down.  That bit of intelligence was acted on by the United States.  But had the folks in charge read the New York Times or visited their local library or recalled the demonstration put on by one of their own admirals, then perhaps the beginning of World War II might have been different and then who knows what might have happened had the initial attack on Pearl Harbor on this date in 1941 been unsuccessful. Just to add to the intrigue, Bywater died  in London under mysterious circumstances in 1940, the year before Pearl Harbor was attacked.

Steve Burgin...Father Time

On this date….a long long long time ago….when the dinosaurs ruled the earth, Mr. Steve Burgin was born. He has served Louisville honorably and admirably for many years and is known in local palentology circles as the Burginsaurus. While he may look like a carnivorous beast, in real life he’s a big teddy bear.

I’m going to tell a secret: He has helped many many young journalists fulfill their dreams of developing a successful career.

I’ll tell you another secret: I am proud and honored to be able to call Steve Burgin my friend. Over the years, he has been a great sounding board and has helped me from time to time. Like many people who have had the good fortune to work with him, I am a better person for having him as being part of the sum total of my life. Besides all that…he’s given me some good ties.

Steve Burgin is also a top shelf journalist and Louisville is lucky to have him. He is the first person from this area inducted into the Silver Circle of The Ohio Valley Chapter of the National Television Academy. That small fraternity is considered the “best of the best.” He’s also received the Edward R. Murrow Award and the Scripps Howard National Award for Investigative Reporting as well as several regional Emmy Awards and other honors. He even walked my mother down the aisle at my wedding! He may be a fossil but he’s our fossil and we should all be thankful to have this journalistic treasure in our midst. See, I have to tell people because the Burginsaurus is really quite shy. He’s really a quite friendly creature, just keep your hands and feet clear at feeding time.

Feel free to email Steve (sburgin@hearst.com) and tell him happy birthday. It would be a fine way to acknowledge his efforts to serve the community in so many ways…..besides that..the fire department has outlawed anymore birthday cakes for him due to the potential fire hazard..so warm greetings would be appreciated I’m sure.

Happy Birthday Steve….and here’s to many more ahead!

NWS Louisville summary of snowfall for Dec 7 2009

Weather Bottom Line:  Well, half of the area got their first snow overnight.  I had said it wouldn’t be much and the map above shows that the vast majority of the area got either nothing or  just a dusting.  But, take a look at the areas to the northwest of Louisville in Southern Indiana.  A few spots pushed up toward an inch of snow.  Now,the next system that I was more bullish on is not paying attention to my thinking as most of the data suggests that it will lift up from the southern plains northward to our west.  So, we will stay on the warm side.  That means rain.  Now,the GFS does want to give us some wrap around snow on Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.   It’s been my experience that its pretty tough for us to get much snow when the parent low is all the way up in the Great Lakes. But, it’s out there.  The biggest thing is that, after warming up to close to seasonal levels for Tuesday and Wednesday, Wednesday evening we drop down again with the frontal passage and we stay well below seasonal norms for the latter half of the week into next weekend.

Tragic Court Martial of USS Indianapolis Captain December 4, 2009

"Capt. Quint" was on the USS Indianapolis; In this scene from Jaws he concludes his story with "anyway, we delivered the bomb."

On This Date in History: On July 29,  1945, the USS Indianapolis was sunk by a Japanese submarine. The cruiser was returning from Tinian Island where it had secretly delivered the atomic bomb. Because it was a secret mission, details of its schedule were shrouded. So much so that its late arrival went unnoticed. The Americans had intercepted a message from the sub describing the ship they had sunk. The Americans just assumed it was a boast and didn’t follow up. If you remember Jaws then you know the story as told by Captain Quint, who said he was a crew member of the doomed ship. Nearly 1200 men were on the ship.

Captain McVay

About 400 died from the torpedo blast. Some 900 men went into the water but only 318 were rescued. No one showed up for a rescue for 84 hours in during that time nearly 500 men were devoured by sharks. Quint said he’d never wear a life jacket again. The Captain of the Indianapolis, Charles B McVay III, never sailed again and on this date in 1945  he became the only officer in US naval history to be court-martialed for losing a ship in war time. McVay committed suicide in 1968 and many speculate he took his own life due to guilt.   His father had been a Rear Admiral in the US Navy and that most likely just added to his grief.  But, during the Clinton Administration, Captain McVay was exonerated from fault by Congress in October 2000.   In spite of the Congressional official exoneration, the US Navy records still indicate the Captain Charles McVay was found guilty in a Court-Martial for losing the USS Indianapolis while he was in command.

Here is a link to a message board regarding Captain Charles B. McVay.

Weather Bottom Line:  It’s going to stay chilly over the weekend.  Our average high this time of year is around 49 and Saturday and Sunday we will have highs somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 degrees below that.  On Monday, another system drops down that may bring a rain snow mix or some insignificant snow.  What I am more interested in resides later in the week.  By Wednesday or Thursday, another system drops down and moves through.  The GFS was advertising about a half inch of snow.  It’s interesting because the GFS is the model that got the snow right today for Houston.  The NAM was claiming it would be dry.  The TV stations haven’t caught on to this feature yet as they too say rain…but I think that it holds some promise…but its 5 days away so we’ll see how it unfolds.  Needless to say…we ain’t warmin’ up any time soon.  We’ve shifted out of that November pattern that brought us one of the few warmer than average months in 2009.