Answer to Haiti Crisis to Create Bigger Global Financial Woe? January 17, 2010

 

How Will Citizens of the World Pay?

Crisis in Haiti Demands attention (Click Image for recent slideshow)

US Intervention: First off, just a note.  A few days ago I posted a piece that suggested it was time for US intervention in Haiti for the umpteenth time in the past 150 years.  I had someone suggest that I had rocks in my head for comparing relief efforts to an intervention.  Well, Time Magazine seems to be on the bandwagon now as they have called it a “compassionate invasion” by the United States.  In my view, the article starts off by making some comparison to New Orleans and Katrina. Here is a recap of the real problems associated with Katrina.  A difference is that the Haitian government invited the US in almost immediately whereas the Governor of Louisiana did not ask for federal help in such a timely manner. What the media does not say, or does not know, is that the Federal government cannot just send troops willy nilly into any state, even in a disaster, without an official request from that state’s governor.  In the Civil War, the United States did not send troops into Kentucky until the state asked for assistance to rid the Commonwealth of an invading Confederate force.  In any event, the Time article does suggest that for all intents and purposes, Haiti is now the 51st state.  It will be intersting to see how this all turns out and if US intervention this time ends up in something positive for Haiti and for the Western Hemisphere.

US total debt

Who is going to Pay and How? The world is coming to the aid of Haiti as nations and individuals are pledging money.  Earlier this year, several creditor nations had agreed to cancel all Haitian debt but France is now asking those nations to speed up the process of Haitian debt forgiveness.   The global community is pledging all sorts of financial support.  But, the question must be asked: where is this money going to come from?  The US is pledging $100 million.  That comes out of the US treasury.  The US is also footing the enormous bill for deploying troops, transportation and supplies.   The US national debt already is past 50% of the GDP and experts recently warned Uncle Sam to not let the debt rise beyond 60% of GDP.  

Olbermann, Limbaugh Probably Not Best Friends

America is stepping to the plate en masse.  USA Today reports that in 2005, private American donations following Hurricane Wilma, Hurricane Rita and Hurricane Katrina totaled nearly $6.5 billion.  USA Today says that Americans are on pace to surpass that total following the earthquake.  Rush Limbaugh recently took heat for reminding people that President Obama’s pledge of $100 million was from the US Taxpayer.  Limbaugh said that he did not trust the Obama Administration to properly collect and use donations made through the White House web site.  Keith Olbermann, among others, attacked Limbaugh for his statements.  Many have suggested that Limbaugh was encouraging people to not donate monies to relief efforts, but Limbaugh defended himself by saying that he never said any such thing.   As I had commented regarding Pat Robertson,  I am not sure what the value was for Limbaugh’s timeliness in expressing his opinion on the subject as, without evidence to support his fears, he stood very little chance of gaining sympathy for his position.  As it stands, the USA Today report indicates that Americans are indeed opening their wallets.  So, if Limbaugh’s detractors claim he told people not to donate to anyone, this would be proof that listeners don’t necessarily do what he says. 

US Debt to GDP Ratios

Nevertheless, the issue of international debt is something that must be considered.  While a time of crisis is not a time to be pinching pennies, someone has to figure out how meeting the needs of humanity today will not create a larger global crisis tomorrow.  Businessweek published an article that details a potential global debt crisis.  It claims that the US is already way beyond the 60% ratio of debt to GDP as it assert Uncle Sam is running at over 93% of a Debt to GDP ratio.  It puts Iceland at over 300%, Greece at 125%, Spain over 66%, Britain and Ireland around 82% and Mexico a winner at just under 50%.  The monies allocated for earthquake relief do not generate any return income so any contributions made from the public sector of any country comes directly out of the treasury. 

Citizen Taxpayers Carry Gov't Debt Burden

 Jamaica is trying to negotiate its way out of it’s debt crisis and Argentina is struggling to find a pathway from its big hole.   But, it’s not just nations that are teetering on bankruptcy.  Word out of Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam is that banks there remain burdened with bad debt.   Brazil’s main bank, Banco de Brasil,  is issuing quite a bit of debt at low, but slightly higher, interest rates.   In Europe, Hungary is finding ways to lend to that country’s banks to try to prop up lending.   In the US, banks in Illinois, Minnesota and Utah were recently seized by regulators.   So, while the stock market continues to rise, there are still many landmines remaining in the global financial system.  We are told that we are in recovery, but China is warning that the slew of international debt may be a roadblock to the future.  China is fearful that a global recovery could be stimied by faulty exit strategies by the international community as well as weak demand and high unemployment.

Global Money Tree Drowning in Debt

So, the world is clearly not out of the woods just yet.  The world must respond as it is to the humanitarian crisis in Haiti.  It is completely necessary on many levels for the US to take the lead in helping Haiti immediately and creating an environment for a better Haiti in the future.  And, while Limbaugh’s reference to funds coming from the US treasury was extremely untimely, the question remains for Uncle Sam and the rest of the world: how do we pay for it?  It used to be in America that charitable giving was completely the responsibility of individuals and they gave  what they could.  Since the Great Depression, America and other nations have grown increasingly comfortable with their governments providing funding for domestic and international social and relief efforts.  Unlike individuals though, governments tend to give more than they can afford, reasoning that taxes can always be collected to make up the difference.  But, at some point in time, someone has to pay.  Care needs to be given because solving one crisis by creating a bigger crisis is not much of a solution.

NAM calls for over 1/2" of rain by Sunday Evening

Weather Bottom Line:  I told you that Saturday would be good and it got even warmer than I thought.  Mid 50′s were commonplace across the area.  Now, a system is lifting up from the Gulf and up the Appalachians to bring rain on Sunday.  By Sunday evening, the NAM advertises over a half inch of rain.  I would think somewhere in the neighborhood of .75″ areawide would be a good bet.  As the system lifts northeast, we get slightly cooler air behind it with a decent Martin Luther King Day on tap with highs around 50.  Then a front comes down and gets hung up across the Ohio Valley bringing a few days of clouds and showers with temperatures cooler, but still above seasonal norms into the mid to upper 40′s.

Remant of Typhoon Mirinae Moving Toward Vietnam; Leaves 14 dead, flooding in Philippines November 1, 2009

Note Mirinae and Developing Cyclone east of Philippines in loop

Philippines Def. Minister visits Barangay Callos in Laguna (click for photo gallery)

Typhoon Mirinae is well west of the Philippines(see discussion below).  Reports are that the number of deaths in the Philippines rose to 14 with significant flooding reported in numerous villages.  See CNN story and video here.   I still can’t get any reports concerning activity at Mount Mayon so I suppose that means it is behaving itself.  There is another tropical cyclone (see discussion below) trying to get going to the east of the Philippines.  A ship near the center of circulation (about 60 nm away) some 595 km east of Manila reported a pressure of 1007.5 mb which really isn’t that low.  I have yet to see any data that supports any huge development but the JTWC still gives the prospects of significant development at “fair.”  Since rain is the issue, I suspect that the biggest problem with this system is its very existance, which was noted several days ago on models.  At that time, the models called for this system to move west over the Philippines and so far, the system is following the guidance.  It has been observed moving west at 12 knots.  While this is not slow, it is of concern because if it continues at this pace and course, it may bring a good chance of rain, perhaps heavy rain for a decent amount of time over the Philippines in the next couple of days.

Typhoon Mirinae Forecast Track (downgraded to Tropical Storm)

Typhoon Mirinae has been downgraded to a tropical storm as it moves across the South China Sea on a west southwesterly course.  The official track calls for it to continue to move toward Vietnam and make a second landfall on the coast northeast of Ho Chi Minh City.  Recently, microwave imagery indicated an eye trying to reform and winds have increased to 50 kts.  However, the environment seems in the future to not be too favorable and the most recent observations indicate that the newly formed eye is already deteriorating.  Therefore,  Vietnam can expect a weak to moderate tropical storm making landfall just prior to 12Z November 2.  The remnant of the storm will continue toward Phnom Phen in eastern Cambodia where it may dissipate.  The danger is not done though because quite often the remnant of a tropical cyclone can produce an abundance of rain, as exemplified by Tropical Storm Claudette in the 1970′s and more recently Tropical Storm Allison in the Houston area, both of which caused horrific flooding along the upper Texas Coast. 

Microwave loop shows some attempt at development by Mirinae

WDPN32 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING
NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (MIRINAE) WEAKENED TO 40 KNOTS AT
0600Z AND, ACCORDING TO RECENT DVORAKS FROM PGTW AND KNES, HAS
STRENGTHENED TO 50 KNOTS MORE RECENTLY. A 010955Z SSMI 37H MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE, WHICH GENERALLY CORRESPONDS TO
A SYSTEM GREATER THAN 45 KNOTS. GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
THAT HAS BUILT OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THE INCREASED
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND THE MICROWAVE EYE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER, CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO WARM SLIGHTLY AND THE CONVECTION
HAS BEGUN TO FLARE. A 011126Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THAT
THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE HAS ALSO BEGUN TO DEGRADE, AND OPEN UP ON
THE SOUTH SIDE. THESE OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS
INTENSIFICATION IS SHORT TERM, AND DUE POSSIBLY TO DIURNAL EFFECTS.
THE STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH OF WEST TOWARDS VIETNAM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION DESCRIBED IN PARA 2.A. THE STORM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL WITH VIETNAM.
B.  TS 23W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS, WHICH WILL ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THESE FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
SLOW WEAKENING PRIOR TO MIRINAE MAKING LANDFALL WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN CAMBODIA THERE AFTER,
THOUGH THE REMNANT VORTICITY MAY TRACK FURTHER WESTWARD (AS
INDICATED BY MANY OF THE OBJECTIVE AID MEMBERS) INTO THE GULF OF
THAILAND OR BAY OF BENGAL. REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LLCC DOES NOT APPEAR
PROBABLE IN EITHER CASE.//
NNNN

ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZNOV2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010152ZNOV2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 010000Z, TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE) WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.9N 115.4E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH,
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 010300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6N
132.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 131.2E, APPROXIMATELY 595 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. AN OCEANOGRAPHIC RESEARCH SHIP, CALL SIGN
MELVILLE, REPORTED 12-KNOT EASTERLIES AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT
1007.5 MB AT 010000Z. MELVILLE IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ONE DEGREE
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
VARIOUS METSAT IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 312233Z SSMIS, INDICATES
PRONOUNCED CURVATURE OF THE CLOUDS PREDOMINATELY WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. DESPITE THIS SIGNATURE THE LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE AND THE CONVECTION IS VERY WEAK OVERALL. THE MOST RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA (NEARLY 18 HOURS OLD) INDICATE VERY STRONG
EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC, BUT LIGHT SUPPORTING WESTERLIES
TO THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A JET MAXIMUM TO THE
NORTH AIDING (EASTWARD) VENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//

Typhoon Mirinae leaves flooding and death in Philippines as it heads to Vietnam October 31, 2009

Click on Image for most recent loop of Typhoon Mirinae

For latest news on death,flooding in Philippines and Mirinae track to vietnam(including microwave imagery) CLICK HERE

Click Image for latest Forecast Track of Typhoon Mirinae, now a tropical storm

Government run relief shelters in the Philippines are sure to swell in numbers from the effects of Typhoon Mirinae.   Typhoon Mirinae struck the main island of Luzon around 17 Z October 30 as the third typhoon to hit the Philippines in the past month.  Typhoon Lupit also brushed the northeast tip of the Philippines just a week ago.  Well over 100,000 Filipinos were still in shelters as a result of the flooding from Typhoon Ketsana and Typhoon Parma which struck back-to-back in late September and early October.  Many villages were still flooded from those two calamities that killed over 900.   The death toll in the Philippines from Typhoon Mirinae stands at a dozen and at least 15 villages are flooded with up to waist deep water.  This is on top of numerous villages that remained flooded from the previous storms.    The last report concerning Mount Mayon put the active volcano at a level two alert as just  prior to the landfall of Typhoon Mirnae, Mount Mayon had exhibited behaviour of increased activity.  Numerous earthquakes from the volcano accompanied minor eruptions of ash plumes but authorities had a dificult time making observations of a potential rising lava dome in the crater.

Watch 72hr loop of Total Precipitable Water Showing Movement of Typhoon Mirinae

Typhoon Mirinae has been downgraded to a tropical storm as it moves away from the Philippines at about 20 kts.  It is expected to continue moving west-southwest toward South Central Vietnam.  The official forecast calls for a second landfall just after 00Z November 2 a couple of hundred miles north of Ho Chi Minh City and continue towards Phnom Penh in Cambodia, though some models still call for a landfall a bit farther south to the east of Ho Chi Minh City.   A second tropical system has developed to the east of the Philippines and, while it is not expected to become a typhoon, the current track would take it over the Philippines in the next couple of days and would bring the threat of additional rainfall.  The system will be monitored for development.

Former Typhoon Parma Tracking Away from Philippines Leaving Flooding and Over 100 Dead October 9, 2009

Parma Finally Exiting Philippines click image for latest loop

For update, photos and video and rising Typhoon Parma Philippines death toll, CLICK HERE

Parma Forecast Track

The former Typhoon Parma Forecast Track is finally good news for Filipinos. (JTWC Discussion) The storm made landfall several days ago on the eastern coast of the northern Philippines causing flooding and more than a dozen deaths on top of the flooding and nearly 300 deaths brought less than a week before by Tropical Storm Ketsana.  It then drifted to the northwest of the island into the Luzon Strait.  About a week ago, I mentioned the possibility of further devastation from Parma as I had feared it would get caught in the flow of the bypassing Typhoon Melor.  It did that and for the last 3 days, it has been lurking over the islands.  It weakened on Wednesday but slipped just off the east coast and we noted here that the convection seemed to be blowing up again over the island just following the center’s emergence back over the ocean.  It wasn’t far off the coast, but far enough. 

7 Day Rain Totals NASA TRMM

Parma spent Thursday moving back to the west over the island and is now moving into the South China Sea and will continue to do so, regaining some strength to tropical storm status before moving into Vietnam in a few days. This is almost a certainty because high pressure is building in from China and it has to drive it that way and keep it moving.  But, Parma left its mark.  In the previous post, I noted that 6 had been killed in landslides.  The landslides in the mountainous areas increased and now the death toll in the Philippines from Typhoon Parma is over 100.  Many of the deaths were in Benguet Province.  Some 30 towns in Pangasinan  Province were flooded.  Many areas that were trying to begin recovery from Ketsana’s flooding are now under water again.  To the left is the NASA TRMM satellite depiction of the rain fall in the world wide tropical regions over the past 7 days. Note the heavy rain over the Philippines from Parma and Japan from Typhoon Melor.

Parma Satellite 2330Z 10.08.09

WTPN33 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 046   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    —
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z — NEAR 16.6N 120.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 120.0E
    —
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z — 16.6N 119.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    —
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z — 16.8N 118.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    —
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z — 17.0N 116.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    —
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z — 17.3N 115.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    —
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z — 18.0N 112.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    —
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5… AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    —
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z — 18.2N 110.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    —
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z — 17.4N 106.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    —
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 119.8E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W
(PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER AND IS TRACKING WESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. AS
THE SYSTEM TRAVELS OVER WATER IT IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY SLOWLY
TO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN VIETNAM AROUND
TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

Typhoon Melor Leaves Japan Behind;Former Typhoon Parma Still Taking Filipino Lives October 8, 2009

Click on Image for most recent W. Pacific IR Loop

See latest storm info and story on rising death toll from Typhoon Parma-over 100 dead in Philippines CLICK HERE

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track

Typhoon Melor crossed the Japanese Island of Honshu relatively quickly but still brought very heavy rain and gusty winds.  At least three people lost their lives as a result of Typhoon Melor.  The forecast track for Typhoon Melor was pretty much on the money with a landfall early Thursday morning with winds topping at 139 kmh or 86 mph south of Nagoya, Japan.  The wave heights were some 9 meters, or 30 feet.  The Typhoon Melor prognastic reasoning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been consistent with the idea that the storm will quickly transform from a tropical cyclone into an extra-tropical storm as it continues to race to the northeast.  Due to its rapid movement, the effects of the storm will subside across Japan by the end of the day. It’s moving so rapidly that the JTWC has issued its final warning for Typhoon Melor.  Commuter train service was haulted Thursday morning in Tokyo but will be restored by the afternoon rush hour.  Toyota shut down plants for the day but operations should resume quickly.  Shipping interests also will be returning to normal as the seas begin to subside.  Hokkaido will feel the effects of Melor will persist even though its losing its tropical characteristics because the structure will not change the windy and heavy rain aspects of the storm.

Parma Forecast Track

Meanwhile, to the south, the remnant of Typhoon Parma (JTWC discussion) remains parked over the northern Philippines.  Early Thursday morning, convection began to explode over parts of the island as the storm center had drifted just off the northeastern coast of the nation.  Wednesday had been relatively benign an clean up operations began from Tropical Storm Ketsana over a week ago.  The heavy rain produced by now Tropical Depression Parma brought more landslides that killed at least 6 more people, including a man who was doing clean up work and also several small children who were buried in their homes.    The storm is expected to continue to linger over the Philippines throughout the day before it moves to the west and finally away from the drenched nation on Friday.  Thereafter, it should regain some strength as it moves toward Vietnam, which also suffered from flooding and deaths due to Tropical Storm Ketsana. 

Depression 21 Forecast Track

Meanwhile, if you look at the color enhanced infrared satellite loop above, you will notice two other areas of interest to the east-southeast of the Philippines that appear to be candidates for development.  The largest of the two is to the east of the Philippines and is showing up quite prominently on the satellite loop.  It has been designated Depression 21 and is forecast to have some development but the forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggests a more northward movement and it is not expected to affect land at this time.  However, to its south and east is another system that looks suspicious to me.  I’m sure the JTWC will begin issuing reports on it over the next 48-72 hours.

Parma Parked Over Philippines; Typhoon Makes Turn Toward Japan October 6, 2009

Parma(pepeng) Satellite Image 1130Z 1006 Still looks rather impressive

For a more recent update on Typhoon Melor as it makes landfall in Japan and Parma still in the Philippines, CLICK HERE

Water Vapor Image 2030Z 10.06 click image for latest loop

The tropical storm formally known as Typhoon Parma has followed the general track that I outlined several days ago.  The satellite image above shows that the storm still has a very impressive structure considering that it has spent much time of cooling, upwelling waters and has not been completely over the water for some time.  The satellite water vapor image and loop is not overly impressive as the storm center is now over land in the Luzon province of the Philippines. This recent news report says its not over the Philippines and won’t make landfall, but the satellite says otherwise. So far, Parma has taken 22 Filipino lives.   A ship sank in the rough South China Sea, courtesy of Parma  You can detect some convection that shows up a little better on the Infrared color satellite image above. 

Click Image for Most Recent Color IR Loop

Parma has reacted as I suggested that it might a few days ago and as the GFS model has been consistently suggesting over time.  The NOGAPS also came around to that way of thinking but the official forecast from the JTWC did not reflect this potential in its official forecast until this morning, though they did make mention of it in their discussion.  While Parma is located over the Philippines, the threat of heavy rains will persist.  Parma dropped very heavy rain in the southern portions of Taiwan and the mountainous regions of the Philippines will be under the threat of landslides until the storm gets picked up by an expanding ridge in China which will take the storm to the west back into the South China Sea.  A note for those of you in Southeast Asia:  The Joint Typhoon Warning Center discussion below indicates that the environment in the South China Sea will be conducive to re-intensification as Parma moves westward toward mainland Asia.

Parma(pepeng)Forecast Track 18Z 10.06 click image for latest update

WDPN33 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA)//
WARNING NR 36//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA) HAS MAINTAINED A STRONG CON-
VECTIVE SIGNATURE CHARACTERIZED BY MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED
TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF LUZON OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. TS PARMA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A BREAK OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT PARMA'S RECENT SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT CAN
BE ATTRIBUTED TO SOME INTERACTION WITH TYPHOON MELOR, LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 675 NM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND KNES AND THE CURRENT POSITION IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 060935Z WINDSAT IMAGE, WHICH CAPTURED THE SYSTEM JUST
PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE THE
LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B.  AS TYPHOON MELOR CRESTS ITS SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND
TRACKS TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES, TS PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF LUZON.
BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE SOME ENERGY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
    C. BEYOND TAU 48, TS PARMA WILL START TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CHINA WHICH
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD. AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE
BECOMES MORE DEFINED BY TAU 72, PARMA WILL START TO PICK UP TRACK
SPEED THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND RE-INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS
GENERALLY AGREE WITH AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE WEST, THOUGH THE TIMING
AND DEGREE OF THIS TURN VARIES WIDELY AS PARMA CURRENTLY SITS IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THIS FORECAST LEANS ON THE EGRR TRACKER
PROVIDED BY THE UKMO AND THE EXTENDED-RANGE FORECASTS PROVIDED BY THE
ECMWF.//
NNNN

W Pac Infrared Satellite 2030Z 10.06 click image for latest loop

Typhoon Melor continues to progress as forecast.  The slight interaction with Parma that caused Parma to slide farther south and southeast back to the Philippines resulted in a slight northwestward hitch in the path of Melor as it moved across the northwestern Philippines Sea.  The result of this is that the curving of motion took place farther west than earlier anticipated and the northeastward track has now set the stage for the Typhoon to run up the largest Japanese Island of Honshu and eventually close to Tokyo.  However,  as the storm rounds the edge of the ridge of high pressure that is steering it, Melor starts to get sheered by unfavorable upper level winds.  The latest satellite imagery indicates this deterioration has already begun.  As it accelerates northeast, it will encounter land after landfall south of Kyoto,  Japan and continue to interact with the Japanese mainland and come into a hostile environment as it begins to transition into an extra-tropical cyclone.  The fact that it will be going through a deterioration stage will mean only minimal typhoon strength winds as it goes across Japan and the fact that it will be increasing in forward speed will limit its rainfall potential.  Nevertheless, the Japanesese topography should enhance the rainfall potential, particularly on the eastern slopes of the mountains and so heavy rain is likely only the eastern third of Japan. 

Typhoon Melor 1130Z 1006 Losing Some Symmetry

WDPN34 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR) HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS THOUGH RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO ERODE IN THE
NORTHWESTWERN QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES
THAT POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AS TY MELOR IS CRESTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON DIVORAK FIXES

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track 18Z 10.06 click on image for latest update

BY PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. IN ADDITION, THE SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE
WAS 113 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY MELOR WILL CREST THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WILL START TO ACCELERATE
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS, TY MELOR WILL START TO ENCOUNTER MORE UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF KYOTO, JAPAN.
ADDITIONALLY, MELOR WILL START TO ENGAGE WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AROUND TAU 24 AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48.
THE MODEL AIDS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A LANDFALL SCENARIO WEST
OF TOKYO, JAPAN. HOWEVER, THE UKMO TRACKER, EGGR, IS THE EASTERN
OUTLIER AS IT TRACKS THE SYSTEM OVER TOKYO, JAPAN. THIS FORECAST DOES
NOT TAKE MELOR AS FAR EAST AS THE EGRR TRACKER, THOUGH IT DOES TRACK
CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS.//

Parma Forecast Track Dangerously Close to the Philippines; Melor Has Sight on Tokyo October 6, 2009

W Pacific color IR 2330Z 10.05.09 (click image for loop)

for a more recent update on Parma (pepeng) and Typhoon Melor, CLICK HERE

Parma Forecast Track JTWC

The former Typhoon Parma forecast track (JTWC discussion below) is getting uncomfortably close to Luzon in the Philippines.  Basically what is happening is that the powerful Super Typhoon Melor (JTWC discussion below) is racing west-northwestward across the Philippines Sea and its substantial flow is taking the drifting Tropical Storm Parma back south from the same direction that it came.   Melor is being affected a little by this binary interaction with Parma and is now forecast to move a little more northwest prior to its shift in direction.  Typhoon Melor gets caught up in a strong southwesterly flow and it shoots to the northeast and begins to get sheared in the process.  That would weaken Melor as it moves up along the western coast of Japan, though the most recent forecast tracks have been consistently running the storm either across Tokyo Bay or just at the entrance to Tokyo Bay.  However, this latest forecast track has the storm swinging farther west(due to Parma) and therefore the northeastern track has Melor streaking inland over the top of Tokyo itself.  It  remains to be seen if that track comes about but Melor is expected to be a minimum typhoon at that time.   I suspect since it had been so formidable and because of its forward momentum, it will probably have a higher storm surge than what might normally be expected with a weakening typhoon that is transitioning to extra-tropical status.  On the other hand, its quick pace would also mean that the threat for extreme rainfall in Japan may be reduced.

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track JTWC

As for Parma, the forecast suggests that the storm does not strengthen as it moves back south or south-southeast because its moving very slowly back over water that is already been churned up.  That would mean that essentially the warm water on the surface has been blown around and cooler water from below has come up to take its place. Its called upwelling and is why a tropical cyclone needs to stay on the move if its going to survive.    Nevertheless, the issue with the Philippines and particularly the area around Manila, is rainfall and just because  the intensity decreases doesn’t mean that heavy rains are not possible.  Remember, Ketsana was just a tropical storm and flooding from it killed nearly 300 people and some 200 more in Southeast Asia.  Now the boys at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center do kick the storm out to the west before it comes back across the Philippines but it may be close enough to cause problems.  In the meantime, the forecast calls for an increase in intensity as it kicks west and that could mean problems down the road for the same parts of Southeast Asia, namely Vietnam, that also had trouble with Ketsana.

Mon 18Z NOGAPS valid 00Z Wed

Mon 12Z GFS valid 00Z Wed

Here is what is troubling.  I only have access to the 12Z run of the GFS and the 18Z run of the NOGAPS.  Previously, it was the GFS that kept on wanting to take Parma back over the Philippines, most notably right over Manila.  Now, Parma is kinda stuck between a ridge to the west and ridge to the east.  Its got nothing to steer it except the little bit of influence south by Melor.  The thinking is that the ridge to the west will be dominant and take Parma west.  The Joint Typhoon Warning Center seems to be discounting the GFS and NOGAPS as indicated by this sentence in their discussion:  “The available numeric guidance are in wide disagreement with the GFS and NOGAPS attempting an eventual turn to the Northeast and the European and EGRR and ECMWF favoring and eventual westerly track into the South China Sea.”  My concern is that the GFS has been consistent in wanting to bring the storm back over the Philippines one way or another. 

Mon 18Z NOGAPS valid 00Z Thu

Mon 12Z GFS valid 00z Thu

Now, the NOGAPS has jumped on board with that thinking, at least for this model run.  This storm has been exteremly difficult to track due to so many variable influences and the fact that its kinda gotten stuck in no man’s land without strong steering guidance.  In my view, it is still beyond human capabilities to make any definitive statement concerning the ultimate fate in relation to Parma.  I think its safe to say that rain will continue to fall over Luzon, whether or not its intense heavy rain over an extended period of time remains to be seen and we’ll just have to wait and see whether the influence of Melor will be sufficient to run the storm all the way back to the Philippines or if the ridge to the west will nose in strong enough and fast enough to take it away.  Either way, it remains to be seen whether, given the proximity of the storm to the Philippines in any scenario and that it currently has decent upper level venting to allow for development of convection, if the storms move over the islands in the counter-clockwise flow cause more flooding problems.  The government of the Philippines seem to be better prepared and seems to be ready for any eventuality. 

WDPN33 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING
NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN BEGUN TO FLARE OVER THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA). STRONG VENTING TO
THE NORTHEAST HAS HELPED THE SYSTEM RECUPERATE SOME OF ITS
DEEP CONVECTION LOST NEARLY 24 HOURS AGO FROM THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR GRADIENT IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. THE
STORM HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND REMAINS
IN THE LUZON STRAIT.
3.   FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED BEYOND TAU 72 IN ORDER TO
REFLECT DECREASED CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT
THIS QUASISTATIONARY STATE BEFORE DAY 5. AS IS TYPICAL IN A
WEAK OR AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE MODEL TRACKERS
ARE HANDLING THE SITUATION POORLY.
    B. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OFF THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF LUZON FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THERE ARE STILL SOME
INDICATIONS AMONG THE MODEL FIELDS THAT THE STORM WILL
EVENTUALLY PULL OUT TO THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES OVER SOUTHERN CHINA, BUT
AGAIN, THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY. INTENSIFICATION IS NOT
LIKELY BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND UPWELLING OF COOL, SUB-SURFACE WATER. HOWEVER,
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MENTIONED IN PARA 2.A. THE FORECAST REFLECTS A QUASI-
STATIONARY STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A SOUTHERLY DRIFT.
    C. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY AT DAY 4 AND
BEYOND, FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DECREASED OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT FROM UPWELLING. INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASED
IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD TO REFLECT THE INCREASED LIKLIHOOD
OF THIS SCENARIO. //

WDPN34 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (MELOR) IS CURRENTLY A 135 KNOT
SYSTEM,BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FINAL-T (6.0) AND
CURRENT INTENSITY (7.0) FROM THE PGTW DVORAK FIX. THE SYSTEM
HAS TRACKED FROM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 050600Z TO NORTHWESTWARD
AT 051200Z AND HAS SLOWED BY 2 KNOTS. THE DECREASED TRACK SPEED
AND INCREASED NORTHWARD TURN ARE BOTH PRECURSORS TO RECURVATURE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NEAR THE CAROLINE ISLANDS IN MICRONESIA
HAS BEGUN TO ENCROACH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AS A
RESULT, FAVORABLE VENTING INTO THIS FEATURE HAS CEASED.
UNRELATED, THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS GROWN CONSIDERABLY,
AND THE EYE IS AT ITS LARGEST DIAMETER YET (32NM). MORE
RECENTLY, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED TO
THE NORTHWEST AS THE STY NEARS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
EAST COAST OF ASIA.
3. FORECAST REASONING
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. STY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BEFORE ENCOUNTERING
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NEAR OKINAWA. THE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED TO VENT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AND MAY ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, SHORTLY THEREAFTER, THE TYPHOON WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
DUE TO EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH WILL ALSO ERODE THE
STEERING RIDGE AND INITIATE RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES.
INTERACTION WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY (NEAR 30N) WILL
PROMPT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, JUST TO THE SOUTH OF TOKYO.
THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
CALLS FOR PASSAGE OF MELOR AS A TRANSITIONING CYCLONE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF JAPAN. THE TYPHOON WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY
TAU 72.//

Parma Regaining Strength, Super Typhoon Melor May Threaten Tokyo October 5, 2009

W Pac Color IR Satellite-Click Image for Loop

for an update on Parma and Typhoon Melor CLICK HERE

Parma (pepeng) Forecast Track JTWC

Tropical Storm Parma appears to be on the verge of recovering from the influence of an upper level trof that appeared out of nowhere out of China and dove down to mess up the storm.  So much did it disrupt Parma (pepeng) that it fell from the classification of a typhoon to that of a tropical storm.  Now that the trof is lifting out to the northeast, satellite imagery is indicating perhaps some re-development of convection which would coincide with intensification.  This is not totally unexpected as, even when Parma got zapped, the low level mean circulation remained strongly in tact.  So, as Super Typhoon Melor moves quickly across the Philippine Sea, Parma will drift to the south or southwest.  The official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been consistent for 24 hours for the first time in days, which tells me that their confidence is increasing.  They indicate that most models show a big ridge over China becoming a dominant feature to steer Parma away to the west.  Indeed the US Navy NOGAPS shows depicts exactly that and takes  small, compact storm into Viet Nam. 

GFS 18Z 10.06.09

However, the GFS continues to not play along.  Previously, it was insisting on a track drifting to the south and then southeast around the periphery of Typhoon Melor as it went by to the east.  Now, what it seems to want to do is have Parma more or less get cut off from everything else.  Not influenced by an ridge over China, nor anything else and too far from Melor to be affected except that it drifts south to the northern tip of the Philippines and then it just sits there for a few days.  It tends to feature heavy banding on the backside whacking the western coast of Luzon…which is not good.  As it stands now, at least 15 have been killed by Parma and more rain is expected in Luzon.

NOGAPS 18Z 10.06.09

A couple of things here…first off the JTWC points out that, while they re-intensify Parma to minimal typhoon status in the next 24-36 hours, they mention that upwelling may mess that up and, if it doesn’t and follows thier forecast, then it would run into a sheering environment and cooler water as it approach Viet Nam.  If Parma were to do what the GFS suggests,then upwelling I would think would be a factor and so it may not be a typhoon in that instance.  But, so what…Ketsana wasn’t a typhoon either.  It’s the rain potential that is the fear.

W Pacific Water Vapor Image 230Z 10.05 click image for loop

As for Typhoon Melor (JTWC Discussion) its a super typhoon with winds of 140 kts kicking up gusts to 160 kts.  For those of us in the United States that would be about 160 mph winds with 185 mph gusts or a category 5 hurricane.  It’s still a long way off but the forecast track has shifted some with the big curve to the northeast when it is in the Luzon Strait coming a tad later, which means that the track now takes it right over Tokyo Bay instead of just offshore. 

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track

However, by that time, Melor would have run into an unfavorable upper level environment and it would have weakened to a minimal typhoon.  But, it would have also picked up forward speed.  In this scenario, I would think that the storm would create a storm surge higher than one might associate with a minimal typhoon due to its forward momentum and the fact that it had been such an intense storm prior to passing over Tokyo Bay.  But, were talking about 3 or 4 days out and there are many things that can happen. Intensity forecasts are notoriously difficult to pin down that many days out.

WDPN33 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR
30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, TROPICAL STORM (TS) PARMA HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IN THE
BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE
REMAINED AT A 3.0/4.0. THE FINAL-T NUMBER IS BASED ON THE PATTERN-T,
VICE A WRAP, BECAUSE THE CONVECTION IS TOO WEAK. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO
BECOME LARGELY QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
HAVING ONLY MOVED 30NM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
3.   FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO THE NORTHWEST OF
LUZON IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MILD RE-INTENSIFICATION EXISTS NOW THAT THE TROUGH MENTIONED IN PARA
2.A. HAS PASSED TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER WILL
BEGIN TO STALL INTENSIFICATION OR EVEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TS 19W GIVEN THAT IT
IS IN A WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IF RIDGING BUILDS
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, THEN THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
PULL OUT TO THE SOUTHWEST, AS THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS
INDICATE. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REBUILDS
FASTER (AND STRONGER) THAN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST THEN THAT WILL
BECOME THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR PARMA.
    C. IN THE LATER PERIOD THE SYSTEM SHOULD START TO ACCELERATE
ALONG THE FAVORED TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. 19W
WILL MOVE INTO LOWER AMOUNTS OF FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THIS TRACK AND START TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN.//
NNNN