Woodrow Wilson: Did He Know The Lusitania Carried Munitions? May 7, 2010

RMS Lusitania

Lusitania Sank Awfully Fast

On This Date in History: On June 28, 1914 Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated by Yugoslav nationalist Gavrilo Princip. The Habsburg Austria-Hungarian government set it’s eyes on Serbia. Now, in his farewell address President George Washington warned the United States against getting involved in entangling treaties with foreign governments when he left office. World War I is a great example of his wisdom because European nations had mutual defense agreements among one another. An attack on Serbia meant an attack on Russia. Germany had previously announced support for Austria. England had vowed support for Russia, the French for the Russians and so forth. Basically, Europe chose up sides in a Baltic conflict which is why there was such a rush during the Clinton Administration to stem the conflict in that region in the 1990′s before it expanded.

Europe Gets It On in 1914

Toward the end of 1914, hostilities opened up with Germany invading Belgium, Luxemborg and France while Austria-Hungary was invading Serbia and Russia attacked Prussia. In the meantime, perhaps keeping to the wisdom of General Washington, the United States decided to sit this one out. While all parties in Europe thought it would be a short war, Americans thought it was “over there” and not their business. America though had experienced strengthening ties with the mother country, England. While America declared neutrality, most Americans privately sided with England and some press reports about supposed attrocities by the Germans did not help change public opinion. Nevertheless, President Woodrow Wilson took a strong, public and vocal stance regarding the neutrality of the United States and expected all parties to recognize the US as such.

Coded and Deciphered Version of Zimmerman Telegram

The Germans, however, were skeptical of the United States. Not only did they think that the true sympathy of the Americans was on the side of the Allies, but they suspected that Uncle Sam was providing materials to support the Allied war effort. Though it was slightly smaller than the RMS Titanic had been, the RMS Lusitania was still one of the largest ocean liners in the world at the time. Between 1907 and 1915, the Lusitania made 202 transatlantic crossings. On this date in 1915, the German submarine U-20 sank the RMS Lusitania . All British shipping was ordered to travel at full speed and in a zig zag pattern as a precaution against German U-Boat activity. Germany had already declared unrestricted submarine warfare against all shipping in the Atlantic providing munitions or aid toward the allied effort in the war. Theorthetically, the Lustitania should have been exempt from submarine attack as it was a luxury passenger liner and it was filled with civilians.

Why Was a Royal Navy Officer Like Captain Turner at the helm of the civlian RMS Lusitania?

On May 7, 1915 the Lusitiania ran into some thick fog so Captain William Thomas Turner slowed the ship and stopped zig zagging. It was an easy shot for the U-Boat. Some 1200 went down with the ship including 128 Americans. The attack resulted in a letter of protest from President Woodrow Wilson. The Germans claimed the ship was carrying munitions. The US denied the charge and the American public grew quite angry as passions against the Germans grew. The sneak attack on perhaps the most luxurious passenger liner at the time created the image of the ruthlessness of the Germans. Nevertheless, the United States did not enter the war following the sinking. Nearly two years later, America learned of the Zimmerman Telegram (the British coincidentally provided it to the Americans) in which the Germans proposed that Mexcio attack the US should the Americans enter the war. The sinking of the Lusitania primed the pump but the Zimmerman Telegram was the ultimate catalyst that led to the US entry into the Great War.

Here’s the rub. The Germans were right. The Lusitania was carrying munitions.

Captain Walther Schwieger: Justified in Sinking Lusitania?

When the U-20 slammed it’s torpedo into the starboard side of the RMS Lusitania, almost immediately a secondary explosion rocked the ship. The torpedo explosion probably wouldn’t have sunk the ship but the second explosion caused a huge gash in the hull and the great liner sank in just 18 minutes. The story that was told to the American public was that the Germans fired at least two torpedoes. That was false. What the people did not know was that the passenger liner was indeed carrying a deadly cargo  as a manifest shows tons of munitions and supplies for the war effort. As it turns out, the British had regularly used passenger ships as supply transports, disguised warships as merchant ships, armed merchant ships and utilized Q-ships which were disguised military ships that flew a neutral country’s flag as cover. The Lusitania, along with its sister ship Mauritania, had intially been taken out of service as part of the war effort before it returned to regular service. And, both the Lusitania and Mauritania were listed in the British Naval Packet Book and Jane’s Fighting Ships as armed merchantmen. No wonder U-20 Captain Walther Schwieger went ahead and attacked. Schwieger later told of the attack:

A U-20 Class German U-Boat

“When the steamer was two miles away it changed its course. I had no hope
now, even if we hurried at our best speed, of getting near enough to attack her…. I saw the steamer change her course again. She was coming directly at us. She could not have steered a more perfect course if she had deliberately tried to give us a dead shot….I had already shot away my best torpedoes and had left only two bronze ones…not so good. The steamer was four hundred yards away when I gave an order to fire. The torpedo hit, and there was a rather small detonation and, then after, instantly a much heavier one. The pilot was beside me. I told him to have a look at close range. He put his eye to the periscope and after a brief scrutiny yelled: ‘My God, it’s the Lusitania.’”

Lusitania Sinking Did Not Lead Directly to US Entrance in World War I

The Lusitania’s Captain Turner was an officer of the Royal Navy, not the Cunard Line. On April 24, 1915 the German government had taken out ads in some 40 US newspapers announcing that a state of war existed between Germany and Great Britain and that passengers would travel by steamship at their own risk. After the sinking of the Lusitania, Wilson urged the American public to remain neutral and he sent the protest letter to Kaiser Wilhelm stating that Germany would be held to “strict accountability” if the attacks conitnued. If the president really thought that it was a naked attack on civlians, might he not do something more than write a letter? Earlier, Wilson had offered to arbitrate an end to the war and both sides refused. But, German Ambassador asked President Wilson on September 2, 1916 if he would help negotiate an end to the war in return for a German withdrawl from Belgium. The great peacemaker Wilson refused! He wanted to wait until after the upcoming presidential election. He apparently was afraid that if he helped negotiate a peace that it might hurt his re-election chances. He knew that he had a small chance of ending the war and he passed it up in favor of political concerns. It went on for two more years. What else did he know and ignore for political reasons?

Wilson Lied?

Wilson claimed that the RMS Lusitania was strictly a civilian ship and carried no munitions. We know that is not true. I have yet to read anything in historical annals that say that President Wilson lied. I suppose he had plausible deniability and historians have given him a pass. In January 1917, Germany resumed unrestricted submarine warfare. In February 1917, the British made the Zimmerman Telegram available to the Americans. In subsequent weeks, the Germans sank a few more ships. So, on April 2, 1917, President Woodrow Wilson asked Congress to declare war on Germany, which it did two days later. The question as to whether Wilson knew that the Lusitania was hiding munitions among its passengers will never be known. But we do know that nearly 20 million people perished in The Great War.

SPC Severe Risk Fri AM to Sat AM

SPC Friday Tornado Probability

Weather Bottom Line:  Friday is here.  We have our cold front approaching.  There is a severe threat but it really does look like Ohio will be the target as that is the region with the parent low.  I just don’t think that the atmosphere had enough time to recover from the weak front that came through and brought such pleasant conditions on Thursday and a cool Friday start.  Southwesterly winds will be helping to move temperatures well into the 80′s and moisture will be increasing.  We have a bit of a cap on the atmosphere so afternoon heating will have to work on that and it should put a lid on any afternoon stuff.  I suspect that the front will create storms, there may be some gusty winds and a little rain but otherwise, I’m not totally convinced that there will be more than that.  Regardless of what my gut is telling me, the SPC does have our region in a slight risk for severe storms for late Friday night.

SPC Severe Wind Probability Friday

As I had mentioned yesterday, the dynamics look great for the late afternoon but by the time we actually get rainfall according to the models, the dynamics back off.  However, between the afternoon heating and the dynamics that are remaining, t’storms will probably be in the area.  Keep in mind though that both the GFS and NAM are not very enthusiastic about rainfall, which seems odd.  The NAM only advertises less than 1/10th of an inch of rain while the GFS is only .028 inches.  What this tells me is that rainfall amounts will vary with regions that get an errant thunderstorm getting more and places in between getting decidedly less. The Hydrometeorlogical Prediction Center has jumped on board with this scenario as well as they are looking at perhaps a tenth of an inch of rain for the region with the heaviest amounts of up to 1.5″ around the Great Lakes.  That previous little front really knocked out the moisture and, as I said, it should serve to limit our rain potential.  That is fine with most people because we had our fair share of rain last weekend.  On a side note, I had a guy tell me some time ago that the Old Farmer’s Almanac worked on an assumption of a 7 day cycle.  So, if they initiated the weather correctly at the beginning of the year then it was astonishingly accurate.  I used to teach class on Thursday evenings and I noticed that 6 out of 7 Thursdays we had thunderstorms.  This is the 3rd consecutive weekend that we’ve had a cold front come through and bring t’storms.  It’s kinda interesting.

SPC Severe Hail Probability Friday

Anyway, the nitty gritty of the indicies reveals that the 6Z NAM had a CAPE of 1937, CINS of 5, Helicity 191, Bulk Richardson Number 32.34, Lifted Index of -5.5, the Total Totals at 54, K-Index of 29, Showalter index of -5 and SWEAT Index of 493.  Normally, I’d say that those numbers indicate a round of strong thunderstorms with the possibility of hail, high winds and even a tornado or two.  All of those numbers are high except the K index, which I think is telling and the Total Totals.  But, when it begins to rain at 8PM, the CAPE falls to 1436, the CINS stays up there at 6, the Helicity falls significantly to 66, BRN is still rather high at 26.73, TT falls to 48, the K-Index actually rises but is still not all that impressive at 34,  SHOW falls to -1 and the SWEAT goes to 353.  Suddenly, when it starts to rain its not so great.  The GFS is similar with the CAPE going from 1012 to 868, CINS is off the scale but falls to 22 which is still pretty good, BRN goes from 22.31 to 17.29, LI holds relatively steady from -2.7 to -2.2, K Index is a pedestrian 21 and goes down to a weak 17, SHOW is -2 to -1 and the SWEAT index is 414 to 351.   The GFS numbers are from 4PM to 7 PM with rain starting sometime between 7 and 10 pm, but it ain’t much.  The SWEAT numbers tell me that that there will be some wind energy available but it would appear that by the time anything gets here, the energy is rapidly depleting as the evening wears on.  The front is strong and should supply some lift for storms, but otherwise, it’s worth a look but not worth putting your house on the market.

The Man Who Saved Millions is Now Held in Contempt March 29, 2010

The Man Most Responsible For Feeding Millions Has Been Cast Aside By America

World War I Poster From the Food Adminstration

On this date in History:  When America entered World War I,  President Woodrow Wilson decided to manage the war effort by creating a bureaucracy of four administrators.  There was the Secretary of War, the War Industries Board, the Committee of Public Information and the Food Administration.    While we can understand the Secretary of War working with the actual war making aspects, the War Industries Board coordinating production of war making material and the Committee of Public Information working the PR end, it’s hard to understand the food angle.  Well, in the early part of the 20th century, United States agricultural production was not what it became by the end of the century and there were other considerations.    The job involved not only the management, raising and distribution of food crops to feed the US Army and the US population, but also to feed  all allied armies.  Beyond that, the administrator of food was expected to help feed civilians in the war zones around the globe and make the credo “Food Will Win the War” come true.  Who would want that job?

Urging Americans to Sacrifice for the Troops

Well, it seems that America had the man for the job and he had already proved himself in Europe.  A young mining engineer had been noted for his ability to organize and, prior to America’s entry into the war, he had managed the difficult job of providing clothing and food to war-scarred Belgium.  So, when Wilson needed a man to head up the herculean effort at home, he called the young engineer home.  As the head of the new agency, the engineer got to come up with his own title.  He had working knowledge from his time in Europe that the position was necessarily not a permanent one.  He also had a strong sense of individualism, liberty and cooperation.  He felt that using the term Czar, Dictator, Controller or Director was not appropriate because each suggested actions based on compulsion. So, he took the title of Administrator.  He had found that it was far more effective and also fit better with his ideal of freedom to persuade people to take action rather than use force.  It was also more pragmatic given the numbers of people and corporations that he had to get to work in harmony with his needs as President Wilson had said that the Allies and America, their soldiers and civilians were “eating at a common table.”

World War I Devastated Europe

This engineer was given the power of law to force cooperation.  Just because one has power doesn’t mean that one has to use it and this engineer chose not to do so.  He could have taken the license away from any business with over $100,000 a year in sales that did not follow regulations or profiteered from the war effort.  Only in extreme cases did he resort to such tactics.  Instead, he simply put them on notice and if they continued  to misbehave, then he fined them in a way that they had to make contributions to the Red Cross, not the government.   Instead of ruling with an iron fist, he held several conferences and outlined the needs of the country, the armed forces and the Allies and he persuaded them to the point of uniformity and cooperation with goodwill.  In other words, he got companies to participate because he convinced them that they needed to and they decided to do so on their own.

As for the public, he did not turn to punitive actions but did ask the nation to make sacrifices.  He used advertisements and speeches to urge 105 million Americans to food conservation.   Mothers were asked to not serve more food than was necessary and children to clean their plates.  Girls planted gardens and boys worked in the fields.  The appeals from the administrator were read from in schools, shown on the big screen in movie theatres and printed in newspapers.  I suppose that the idea of separation of church and state had not gotten so militant because even clergy got involved and read the calls for cooperation from pulpits across the land on Sundays.  Some of those measures included porkless Thursday and Saturday, wheatless Monday and Wednesday and no meat was asked to be consumed on Tuesdays.  Bakers were asked to promote “Victory Bread” which had more wheat grain than ordinary bread.  

Filing Conservation Pledges at NY Food Conservation Commission

When he was able, he backed off his requests even though it may have been confusing.  On this date in 1918, he declared a suspension of “Meatless Tuesday” for the month of April.  He didn’t ask people not to eat out as that would hurt the economy.  Instead, he asked Americans to follow simple rules of no bread after the first course, a half ounce of butter per person and use only one kind of meat.  He asked people to limit the serving of sugar to cubes in an effort to avoid waste, which was not necessarily the original intent of the Moravian inventor of sugar cubes in the 1840′s.  However, he did ask that only 2 pounds  of sugar be used for every 90 meals served.

The Greatness of Herbert Hoover Buried in American History

These were not unreasonble requests and really, if  you think about it, would be a good idea for any overindulging society.  Life magazine joined in the chorus by suggesting to not let your child “take a bite or two from an apple and throw the rest away, nowadays even children must be taught to be patriotic to the core.”  The rise of the man who convinced America to alter its lifestyle without resorting to governmental coercion, threat of fines, threat of jail or any legislative power was described by journalist Mark Sullivan was a “combination of quality in the man with adventitious circumstance is always a fascinating aspect of history.”  So who was this man?  Why have we not heard of him?  The fact is that you have but a stock market crash and the depression that followed overshadowed his greatness.  Herbert Hoover was called “the biggest man who has emerged on the Allied side during the war” by a London paper.  Herbert Hoover is called the great humanitarian by those who know of his efforts. Hoover is credited with not only organizing America’s war effort but also saving 10 million lives during and after the war and he did it largely without resorting to force or use of law.  He used his power of persuasion to motivate a people known to answer a call to action (in this case it was called “Hooverizing”) when they are asked and convinced it is the right and just.

Weather Bottom Line:  Take the week off.  Monday’s clouds will give way to lots of sun and an area of high pressure will set up along the Gulf Coast and set up a southerly and southwesterly flow as the longwave pattern becomes oriented with a trof in the west and ridge in the east.  That should result in some strong t’storm activity in the plains this week.  Possilbe that we catch some of that action on Sunday or Monday but until then, just enjoy the rising temperatures as I suspect that by Good Friday, we’ll be talking about 80 degrees.

Pancho Villa and the Ides of March March 15, 2010

Doroteo Arango Said, "Et tu, Uncle Sam" On the Ides of March

Caesar's Last Moments with Marlon Brando Looking on March 15, 44 BC

On This Date in History:   It’s March 15.  If it weren’t for William Shakespeare, most people would probably have never heard of the Ides of March.  Of course, the Ides of March is when Julius Caesar was stabbed to death my several members of the Roman Senate.  Even now, most people probably don’t even know that there are ides of other months.  Believe it or not, there have been other significant events of the day.

Doroteo Arango

In 1878, Doroteo Arango was born in Mexico.  Through his early years, he witnessed the ascent of the wealthy in Mexico and the difficulties of the poor.  Conditions have improved since Arango’s early days but, even today, the Mexico class structure is one in which nearly 25% of the population is in poverty with a 2008 per capita income of less than $10,000. (World Bank Data)  However, the unemployment rate in 2008 was just 3 percent.  To make things worse for the Arangos,   the patriarch of the family died when Doroteo was 15 and he became a sharecropper to support his mother and siblings.   In 1894, the 16-year-old Doroteo returned from a day in the fields to find the owner of the hacienda attempting to sexually assault his 12-year-old sister.  So, the teenager grabbed a pistol and shot the wealthy owner.  That sent the teenager on a life of eluding the law.

Villa Spent Much of His Life on A Horse On the Run

He went to the mountains and after a couple of years of difficult survival, he joined up with a group of bandits and he quickly became thier leader.  They stole cattle, robbed various forms of transit carrying money and generally committed crimes against the wealthy.   By giving some of the spoils of their trade to the poor, Arango and his compadres saw themselves as modern day Robin Hoods as did many in the general population.  Authorities, however, viewed them as nothing but hoods and stepped up the attempts to apprehend Arango and the banditos. 

Heroic Image of Pancho Villa

As his imfamy rose, it seemed like a good time to create an alias.  Now, some say that Arango took the name of a fellow bandit he had met along his journey.  Others say that the name Francisco Villa was a derivative of his grandfather’s last name.  But, either way, Doroteo Arango became Francisco Villa.  Since, “Pancho” is a popular nickname for “Francisco,” Franciso Villa quickly became Pancho Villa.  Now, while the authorities were not too enthused at Villa’s propensity for avoiding capture and escaping seemingly impossible odds, one group took an interest.  That would be a political group of revolutionaries who thought that Villa had the skill set to lead guerilla operations.  Porfirio Diaz was the President of Mexico and many of the poor blamed their plight on him.  His political opponent, Francisco Madero, came to the forefront on a promise of change.  He called for big changes to help the poor and, presumably, adversely affect the rich.  That seemed like a good idea to Villa so he agreed to be a leader of Madero’s revolutionary army.

End For Villa Not Pretty or Heroic

He did pretty well for a couple of years but abrutly resigned his position in 1911 following a dispute with another revolutionary commander, Pascual Orozco, Jr.  Madero became Mexican president and, not long after he resigned his position, Villa got married and tried  to settle down to a life of normalcy.  But, that was not to be.  Seems that Orozco was not included in the new president’s governmental plans so, he started his own revolution in 1912.  Villa agreed to join forces with a general in support of Madero but the general accused Villa of stealing his horse and ordered him executed.  While, Villa escaped the gallows with a reprieve, he was left in prison for 6 months until at the end of 1912 when he did what he was good at doing: he escaped.

Villa and Pershing in 1914...Before They Became Enemies

Now, this general, General Victoriano Huerta, switched allegiances and turned against Madero.  On George Washington’s birthday in 1913, Huerta killed Madero and named himself as president.  As part of the pattern, Villa joined up with another person opposed with the president.  This time it was Venustiano Carranza and Villa had a string of victories across much of North Mexico where he redistributed land and tried to stablize the economy.  I dunno…maybe Carranza got jealous or maybe he was afraid of the power his partner was gaining…but for some reason, Villa and Carranza went from friends to enemies and a Civil War between the two factions continued for a couple of years.  Enter Uncle Sam, who decided it was time to support Carranza after initially backing Villa.  Villa responded on March 9, 1916 by crossing the border and attacking Columbus, New Mexico.  Now, that old arbitor of peace and law, President Woodrow Wilson, was not about to let the first attack on American soil since the War of 1812 go unanswered on his watch.  So, on this date in 1916, President Woodrow Wilson ordered the invasion of Mexico by 12,000 US troops led by General John J. ”Black Jack” Pershing in an attempt to kill or capture Villa.

Recruiting Poster to Join US Army to Capture Villa

   As part of the American Expedition was a young George S. Patton, Jr.  After a year, the United States Army failed to capture Villa and Carranza was assassinated.  Interim Mexican President Adolfo de la Huerta negotiated a peace that involved Villa retiring to a nice hacienda in Chihuahua.  Villa enjoyed himself until in 1923, he was gunned down while sitting in his car.  They made a movie about the Death of Pancho Villa in 1974

So, you see, in the early 20th century, the United States invaded a sovereign nation to kill or apprehend an individual who had orchestrated and participated in an attack on US soil.  While history really doesn’t repeat itself, the early 20th century and the early 21st century do have some interesting parallels.

NAM calls for clearing at 700 mb by 2pm Monday

Weather Bottom Line:  Everything is pretty much running down the line.  The weekend was as gloomy as I said it was and the temperatures in the 40′s felt a little chillier now than it would have a couple of weeks ago because last week we had highs in the low 70′s.  Now, the low behaved as expected and therefore there is no reason to think that it won’t move off to the northeast with clouds over our area on Monday before things improve.  In general, we should begin to warm up slowly as the week progresses but, there is one fly in the ointment.  Midweek, both the GFS and NAM call for an upper low to drop down, cut off from the main flow, over the Ohio Valley.  Its my guess that we may be a little cooler on St. Patrick’s Day than some forecasts suggest.  Otherwise, we move toward the 60 degree mark by the end of the week.  There is some indication of a trof late next weekend that may keep us in the 30′s on Sunday and some models are trying to throw out snow…though at this point, ground temperatures won’t support much accumulation and I’m not so sure we will get cold enough for it anyway.  But, it’s something to file away.

Right to Smoke Non-Tobacco, Rights to Monopoly, Wrong to Kidnap Kaiser January 5, 2010

Freedom of Expression!

Courts Haven't Ruled in Favor of This Kind of Free Speech

This one may be headed to the legal history bin:  Many municipalities have enacted anti-smoking laws.  I do not understand how constitutional position of such laws in relation to private business,  but I suppose that has probably been adjudicated.  But, the laws typically specifically address the smoking of tobacco products.  They often say nothing about non-tobacco products.  My history professor, Dr. Thomas Mackey, always reminded me of the importance of words and to write what you mean and mean what you write.  Legal professionals are supposed to write with such specificity but sometimes they fall short.  In Denver, apparently the law bans smoking of tobacco products so The Denver Curious Theater says it will go to the Supreme Court of the United States to argue their right to smoke non-tobacco products during theater productions.  Gee…I wonder what non-tobacco product they are considering?  They’ve been arguing for three years before state courts that the non-tobacco smoking is a form of free speech and should be protected as a right of free expression.  The Colorado Supreme Court didn’t buy it, serving up a smoking 6-1 ruling against the plaintiffs.  It will be interesting to see if the SCOTUS decides to hear the case.  I’d love to hear what Justice Scalia has to say.  Actually, if you look at some of Scalia’s less celebrated opinions, it’s possible that he may surprise some folks if he gets the chance.

Monopoly "Inventer" Cashed In, But Was it Legit?

I Doubt That Darrow Could Beat Tom Cruce

On This Date in History:

When I was a kid…I’m talking kidnergarten through second grade…we played Monopoly all the time. We’d have games that lasted for days. Tom Cruce was always hiding money under the board and so we never knew how much he had. I think sometimes we made up our own rules. The game would often be transferred from one house to another, depending on the mood of the mother of whatever house we began the game. If the atmosphere became too tense, we simply moved to someone elses house.

1935 Version

That is my history of Monopoly and its probably a little more clear than the history of the game itself. Parker Brothers made a lot of money selling the game after it bought the rights in 1935. It had always been believed that Charles B. Darrow sketched the original version on a piece of oil cloth. Darrow, an out of work salesman, did not have the means to distribute the game so he offered it to Parker Brothers. But the game company thought it was too complicated and took a pass. So, Darrow joined forces with a friend and sold several sets in and around Philadelphia. Parker Brothers took another look at it and bought the rights. But, the story may be a bit more complicated than that.

Magie's 1904 Patent

In 1971(1973 or 1974 in some sources), someone came out with Anti-Monopoly. Naturally, Parker Brothers wasn’t too enthused and off to court they went. In the testimony, witnesses claimed that the game had been patented on this date in 1904 by Elizabeth J. Magie. Ms. Magie followed the theories of economist (now thought of as a socialist) Henry George and came up with the game to show the evils of real estate monopolies. Her early version was known as the Landlord Game and spaces sported names like Lord Blueblood’s Estate where trespassers were sent to jail. There was also Poverty Place. By the 1920′s, the game was being played in eastern universities by students who held left-wing ideals. At the Quaker Haverford College in Philadelphia, the student yearbook in 1924 made reference to the game and called in Monopoly.

Five years later, the students at Atlantic City Friends School were introduced to the game by a Quaker teacher. The spaces were given names found in Atlantic City with property values assigned and spaces painted in the colors that are familiar today. The story goes that a visitor to the school

1935 Marvin Gardens Card Misspelled

took the game back to Philadelphia and showed it to a Quaker hotel manager named Charles Todd. Todd, in turn, showed it to Darrow. Todd said that Darrow was slow to catch on to how the game was played. Todd claimed that Darrow asked him to write up the rules and make a copy of the game board for him. Todd then asserted that “he(Darrow) stole the game and took it from there.” As proof, Todd said that when he made a copy for Darrow, he misspelled Marven Gardens. Instead of an “e” he used an “i” and that is why Marvin Gardens is not spelled properly on the board game.

So, Charles Darrow may indeed have been a fraud…but he did gain a monopoly…at least for awhile after he received U.S. Patent 2,026,082 for the game in 1935. Darrow became the first millionaire game designer in history and three years after he died in 1967, Atlantic City put up a commemorative plaque on the boardwalk near Park Place to honor the man who may not have invented Monopoly, but certainly profited from it. It looks like to me that the Quakers must have felt like that they got stuck with Baltic and Medeterranean while Darrow had Boardwalk and Park Place.

 

Kaiser Wilhelm II

Hand Over the Kaiser!  Well…Never Mind: 

After World War I, Germany’s Kaiser Wilhelm II found haven at a friend’s castle in Holland.  American Colonel Luke Lea was outraged, thinking that the former head of Germany should be tried as a war criminal.  Tennesseans from the days of Davy Crockett and his Tennessee Volunteers at the Alamo have been known for their toughness and hard headedness and Lea and his pals decided to hold up that tradition.  Lea got 7 other guys from his home state and plotted to capture the Kaiser and present him to President Wilson  as “a New Year’s Eve gift” at the Paris Peace conference.  So, the 8 Tennesseans acquired some passes, stole a couple of cars and, on this date in 1919, went to the Dutch town of Amerongen.  When they got to the castle, they BS’d their way past some guards and demanded to see the Kaiser.  Count von Bentinck asked what they wanted and they said they’d only tell the Kaiser.  The Kaiser refused to see them.  They argued a bit and then just decided to say “never mind” and left politely.  By that time, a crowd of soldiers had gathered but the octet managed to get in their stolen cars and made a clean getaway.  Or so they thought.  They were eventually apprehended and squeaked past a court martial, though I don’t think that was ever too much a concern.  See, the American commander, General John J. Pershing later said that he’d have given a year’s pay to have gone with Lea and his private expeditionary force.  It’s good to have the king on your side. 

CONUS Snow Depth NAM 7 AM Friday

Weather Bottom Line:  As of January 4, 2o10 58.1% of the United States was covered with an average of 5.9 inches of snow.  In a few days, that coverage will expand as a pretty quick moving shortwave dives down from the northern Rockies, across the plains, through the Ohio Valley and into the Carolinas.  Behind it will be another shot of arctic air that promises to keep Kentuckiana in a deep freeze.  As it passes on Thursday, it still appears to be the best shot this season for some decent snowfall.  Some models have over 4 inches of snow but I kinda like the 2-3 inch range a little better. The NAM has come in line with this thinking as it calls for a 2.5 inch snow depth over our region by Friday morning.  It’s possible for more than that, depending on the humidity of the air.  Lower dewpoints may result in a great snow to liquid ratio and so a fluffy snow may be closer to 4 inches.  Either way, I wouldn’t be surprised to see schools closed on Friday given its the first snow, its  the first week of school for the new year and it’s a  Friday and everyone wants a long weekend.  With snow on the ground, easily single digits and maybe low single digits could be in the cards Saturday morning.  You probably heard that here first but others will come around.

America’s First Woman President September 25, 2009

First Woman US President?

The Happy Couple

On This Date in History:  In the most recent presidential election cycle, Hillary Clinton was considered the front runner for the nominee of the Democratic Party until she was bested by Barack Obama who eventually won the election as President of the United States.  It was seen a race for the potential for firsts.  If Obama won the election, he would be the first African American president in the nation’s history.  If Clinton won, she would be the first female  president in the nation’s history.  Or would she?  Certainly Ms. Clinton would have been the first elected president of the United States but there are those who say we’ve already had a de facto female president.   The sequence of events that led to that conclusion began on this date in 1919.

President Woodrow Wilson was making a public speaking engagement in Pueblo, Colorado when he suddenly collapsed.  The president had suffered a serious stroke.  Now, the president’s wife was Edith.  She was a descendant of Pocahontas who had little formal education which contrasted greatly with Wilson, who had a PhD.  Edith was a political neophyte as she was not his wife when he was first elected in 1912.  In fact, she couldn’t even remember who she voted for in the 1912 election.    One thing that she had in common with the president was that each one had suffered the death of a spouse.  It was but a quirk of fate that Edith met the bereaved president and they soon married.  Apparently, Wilson needed female companionship greatly and when Edith Bolling Galt became Edith Bolling Galt Wilson, she became a very close confidante.

Working on a Crossword Puzzle of Reviewing Policy?

So, when Wilson became disabled by his stroke, she was able to quickly pick up the reigns and then some.  She barred everyone from seeing the ailing president.  Cabinet officers and trusted aides alike were kept from seeing Wilson.   Edith insisted that she had no role in executive decisions saying, “the only decision that was mine was what was important and…when to present matters to my husband.”  Well, even if her role was limted to what she admitted, then she was still a key figure because it was up to her what the president saw and when he saw it.  She was the sole arbitor of what was important and what he needed to consider.  It’s unclear whether she was behind the public reports regarding Wilson’s health, but the public was told that the president was recovering.  The truth as that he was partially paralyzed and nearly blind.  That would mean that he was probably unable to read any documents or correspondence and so Edith would be in charge of the content of just about anything that he heard.  The Washington Post in 2007 revealed the new information has come to light that confirms both Edith and the doctors conspired to cover-up the severity of Wilson’s medical condition.

Edith Handled Correspondence But Her Signature is rarely found by collectors

She became known as the “Iron Queen,”  “Presidentress” and “The Regent” with one senator referring to the situation as the “Petticoat Government.”  When there was a presidential address to Congress scheduled, the message was sent  in the form of a patchworks of reports from Cabinet members.  Those reports included penciled in corrections by Edith, as if she was grading the school work of a child.  Lawmakers were convinced that Wilson never knew nothing about the message to Congress or much of anything else that was coming from his office.  The last year’s of his presidency are largely seen a ineffective and many suggest that the government was tightlycontrolled by the First Lady.  Here is an excerpt from an Edith Wilson biography that illustrates the level of her control:

Lansing: Fired by Edith?

“When the Secretary of State Robert Lansing conducted a series of Cabinet meeting without the President, the first being in October 1919, Edith Wilson considered it an act of disloyalty and pushed for his replacement with the more acquiescent Bainbridge Colby. Wilson requested Lansing’s resignation in February 1920. As her husband began partially to recover, she also guarded access to him from advisors and other political figures. When Republican Senator Albert Fall was sent to investigate the President’s true condition, Edith Wilson helped arrange Wilson in bed to be presentable and sat through the brief meeting, taking verbatim notes.

In September 1919, Edith Wilson refused to have the U.S. accept the credentials of British representative Edward Grey who had been sent by his government to aid in the push for ratification of Wilson’s League of Nations unless Grey dismissed one of his aides who was known to have made demeaning jokes at her expense.”

Wilson died in 1924.  He is buried at the National Cathedral in Washington DC.  Actually, I believe I saw his place of final rest in the Washington National Cathedral.   Edith carefully preserved memorabilia and managed his legacy.  At the age of 89, she attended the inauguration of President John F. Kennedy.  Shortly thereafter, Edith Wilson died and, as part of her obituary, the New York Times observed that “some went so far as to characterize her as the first woman president of the United State.”  There are those today who agree that, without the title, sympathetically Edith Wilson was indeed the first woman president of the United States. 

SPC Severe Probability Sat AM to Sun AM

Weather Bottom Line:   There was a flash flood watch for our area through Saturday but since no wide spread rain materialized in the Friday’s gloom, it was cancelled.  The concern was the amount of rain we had received and the amount expected.  There is a cold front moving our way which will take us from a warm, moist airmass to one that is dry and coolish.  From tropical maritime to polar continental.  I had suggested some days ago that it was in this transition on Saturday that we may have some strong storms.  As it is, the SPC does not feel the threat warrants a designation of a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, but it does put parts of our area under the dreaded 5% risk of severe storms.  So, my assertion of the potential for strong storms remains, but the probability of any of those storms turning technically severe is minimal.  Here’s what the SPC has to say about our region:

UPPER LOW THAT HAS MEANDERED ABOUT THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION FOR THE
   LAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY BE KICKED EWD AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS BEGIN
   TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SPEED MAX ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
   BORDER.  IN FACT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST UPPER LOW WILL OPEN
   UP ACROSS ERN KS/MO EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN QUICKLY EJECT INTO ERN
   OH/WRN PA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AS THIS OCCURS A POCKET OF
   FAIRLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES…H5 ON THE ORDER OF MINUS
   16-18C…WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF MO/IL BY MID DAY…THEN INTO IND BY
   MID AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THIS
   REGION IT APPEARS FOCUSED ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
   SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR ROBUST CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
   GENERATING HAIL.  A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   WITHIN STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT…PRIMARILY BETWEEN 18-00Z
   TIME FRAME NORTH OF MID LEVEL JET CORE.

Rain Total Forecast For Saturday and Sunday

We will have a round of heavy rain with some accumulation totals of 1-2 inches but the SPC and Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) don’t look for particularly nasty weather or excessive rainfall.  But, the sliver of the rain totals of greater than 3 inches has expanded since the last forecast and remains just to our east, encompassing most of east Kentucky.  So, it’s worth keeping up on.  Once the front moves through, we turn drier on Sunday…should be a great day.  Then we get the follow-up shot of cooler air.  I still suspect that on Monday night, there will be several temperature reports in the 40′s and Tuesday afternoon some folks may not get out of the 60′s.  Fall is here.

Women Get Railroaded with the Stroke of a Pen wielded by Men September 18, 2009

Women's Railroad Career Came to a Crashing Halt

On This Date in History:  When President Woodrow Wilson decided it was time that America get involved in the Great War, the military draft was brought back.  Millions of men either volunteered or were drafted into the ranks, leaving a gap in many civilian services.  In the early 20th Century, women who did work were usually employed as school teachers or seamstresses and perhaps in textile sweat shops.  Men made up the vast majority of the labor force.  So, that meant that public services such as mass transit were in jeopardy when all the men ran off to fight the Hun.  In 1917, the New York and Queens Railroad began hiring women to run its trolley.  By 1918, twenty-five “conductorettes” could be found on the lines in Queens.  A newspaper said that the ladies were doing such a splendid job that a few had been appointed as inspectors.  The railroad was so happy with their work that it supplied them with $17 winter overcoats and doubled their pay to $25 a week.  They then made a commitment to keep them on the payroll after the war was over.  Management said, “The women conductors have come to stay  on our lines just as long as they want to continue in their present jobs.  We now have about 50 and are taking more on as fast as they apply for positions.”  It’s good to get promises in writing. 

Al Smith Helped the Ladies by Firing Them

In May 1919, New York Governor Al Smith decided to be Mr. Helper and perhaps he was in cahoots with railroad management who wanted to back out of their commitment but needed some cover.  So Big Al signed a bill to “better the conditions of women.”  It was the kind of help the ladies could have done without.  The bill mandated that women could only work 54 hours a week.  Men of course, were able to work longer hours.  So, on this date in 1919, management of the New York and Queens Railroad prepared the pink slips for all of their female employees who were to work their last day on September 20, 1919.  But, they did get to keep the overcoats.

Sunday 8 AM

Weather Bottom Line:  Just a little bit of a wrinkle in the forecast.  We still have the low ejecting from the Southwest coming our way increasing rain chances on Saturday night and especially on Sunday.  But, I had mentioned that next week there were indications of a big cool down.  The consensus on all of the models is that the big trof that  looked to come around here will be in the plains.  There will be a big fat low that will get stuck and just spin around.  The end result will be a constant inflow of moisture our way.  For that reason, we will probably be held in the 70′s next week, maybe even low 70′s but it will be due to rain and clouds much of the week.   I think maybe a 40-60 percent chance of rain for just about all of the first 4 days of the week can be expected.  The actual cool air will be to our west.

Peace That Brought War; 6 Flags Decapitation & other Accidents; Tropical Storm In Gulf? June 28, 2009

Keynes Had it Going

On This Date in History:

The photo above is typically called “The Big Four.” It may be better called “The Big Dummies.” If you don’t know which one is President Woodrow Wilson, then shame on you. The guy with the big moustache is French President Georges Clemenceau. The one whose face you cannot see if British Prime Minister David Lloyd George who is talking to Italy’s Vittorio Orlando. Wilson had his 14 points at the end of World War I. This was his outline of what to acheive in a peace treaty. But Clemenceau wanted big reparations against Germany and make Germany the scaepgoat for the war. They ended up with something closer to what Clemenceau wanted. On June 5, 1919 British Economist John Maynard Keynes resigned his position at the Paris Peace Conference representing the British Treasury. He said that the harsh terms of the treaty would result in collapse of Germany, a revolution and followed by a later war involving Germany that would destroy that “civilization and progress of our generation.” He later wrote a book about it.

The “Big Four” went ahead and forced Germany to sign the Treaty of Versailles on this date in 1919.

Keynes’ forecast was right on target for most historians agree, the seeds of World War II that destroyed much of Europe, parts of the Middle East and parts of Asia were sewn on this very date in the form of a “Peace Treaty.” It was perhaps better called a declaration of a future war. Keynes went on to live with a stellar reputation and continue his claim that the idealistic President Wilson was “the greatest fraud on earth.” Let us hope that should we get another idealistic president that future events would not necessitate the same analysis.

An interesting part of this is that Wilson did not include anyone from the Senate in his negotiations. This kinda po’d the Senate who had to ratify the treaty.   Particularly incensed was Sen. Henry Cabot Lodge.  A version of the treaty was eventually voted on but there were lots of amendments attached.  No matter, for the first time in US history, a peace treaty was rejected by the US Senate.  So, when reading history one can’t blame the Congress for the failure of the Treaty of Versailles.  Like Keynes, and not like Wilson and the other 3 leaders,  Congress actually was right about something.

This Part of Batman was fatal to those who got in the way

On This Date a year ago:  After Six Flags’ Kentucky Kingdom had the incident in 2007  in which a young girl had her feet severed, a teenager got his head removed by a roller coaster at Six Flags’ Atlanta park. This one clearly was the park goer’s fault, but I never found out how it played out in the courts if it ever made it to court. Here’s the story from the time:

Six Flags Over Georgia Decapitation

Here’s a link to Youtube video to get an idea of what the ride is like. You can tell how close it comes to the ground.

Six Flags Batman Video

Here is a Sunday morning  after the accident version of the Six Flags Over Georgia Roller Coaster Death  It appears that this was not the first death associated with that particular ride.  In 2002, an employee went into the same restricted area and was killed, though I don’t think that decapitation was involved.  Theme park accidents are more common than you might think.  This person has a website devoted to nothing but theme park and carnival ride accidents.  A little interesting perhaps but certainly thought provoking.

Satellite view 1215Z Sun June 28, 2009

This is probably not going to develop. It’s a system that has been hanging around near Cancun but has moved onto the Yucatan.   On Saturday morning it looked like it had potential to me but none of the hurricane models had really picked up on it enough, which surprised me a bit.  By Saturday evening, some of them had.  I think it was something like 8 of them with 6 taking it up to tropical storm strength.  About half took it across the southern Bay of Campeche with the rest having some oddball routes that crossed the Gulf.  On Sunday, with the storm centered over land, the hurricane models have lost interest again.   Even some of the conventional models don’t even show it living very long.  But, those that do take it into northern Mexico and keep it pretty pedestrian…say something between 1008 to 1o12 mb.    It’ worth watching though.

Weather Bottom Line: Late Saturday night there was an extremely impressive line of t’storms in the northern plains that looked poised to pounce on the Ohio Valley as a cold front was moving down.  With the cool of evening, the line pretty much pooped out.  Now, you see that the SPC has the slight risk for severe storms in Eastern Kentucky.   The idea is that the front will be southeast of the Louisville region in the heat of the day when the storms may  refire on that front.  Unless the front is pokey or backs up, then we should have temperatures reduced somewhat with a little lower humidity which a much more noticeable difference for the week ahead.  I would think that the only cause to pause would be the prospect that the front stays south of our area but not far enough to take the 850mb front out of our area.  In that case, we might want to keep an eye out for elevated storm developing on the 850 front.  Not a great possibility, but not out of the question.

Help The Poor-Get a Tax Deduction-Win a 2100 Sq Ft Home! Anti-War Secretary of State Resigns June 10, 2009

 

Get These Kids Clean Water, Take a Deduction and Maybe Win a Home

Tax decuctable donation gives chance for a new house!  (Go For It! Click HERE!) A couple is selling everything they own to help others.  Lindsey and Bowin Tichenor are taking their 3 small children and moving to the Dominican Republic to help bring the impovershed nation clean drinking water.  The government can’t or won’t do it, so these folks are dedicating their lives to do so.  To help support their mission, they are raffling their home.  (It’s a Suburban 2100 sq ft home  Click Here for Specs)  I’m guessing that because the money raised will go to their mission, essentially you are making a donation and then you get a chance for the home and that is why they tell me the purchase of a chance is tax-deductable.  Go for it.  Odds of winning are going to the casino.  And you are helping others to serve the needs of people in need. Doesn’t matter what  your political party is, your religion or even if you have a religion.  You can help others who are helping their fellow man, you get a tax deduction and you may end up with a house.  You say you care about the poor? Put your money where your mouth is!

Bryan Could Often Get Worked Up in Speeches. The Guy to the Right Looks like He's seen This Act Before

Probably the Closest Photo You'll Find of Bryan Smiling

On This Date in History: On this date in 1915, Secretary of State William Jennings Bryan resigned. In May of that year, the Germans had sunk the Lusitania, one of the worlds largest ships. Over 1200 perished, including some 128 Americans. Bryan sent a nicey-pooh note to the Germans saying how he wanted to stregnthen relations and such. I suppose today, Jennings would have  gone to the UN.  Nevertheless, the Germans responded saying that they were justified in torpedoing the passenger ship, claiming it was carrying arms. Years later, historians have established the ship was indeed carrying a small amount of armaments.

Now, Bryan was big-time anti-war.  He had run for President a few times and lost each time but supported President Wilson because the President had run on a platform of peace.  He supported Wilson’s declaration of US neutrality.  But, Bryan saw that the advances in technology had made traditional aspects of neutrality dangerous.  He thought that a position of neutrality should be modified to restrict the travel of Americans into war zones because it was impossible to protect US citizens when there are submarines running around.  But, Wilson insisted on tradition.   

Wilson and Bryan Jan 1913

So, when the Lusitania went down, President Woodrow Wilson responded with a terse note demanding that Germany curtail its practice of unrestricted warfare. Bryan urged the President to send a similar letter to the British for its violation of neutral rights.  I suppose that would be “fair” except that any violations the Brits had did not include the sinking of ocean liners filled with passengers  Wilson instead sent a second letter to the Germans.  Bryan, fearing the letter represented an escalation toward war, resigned instead of signing the letter. The Germans responded by scaling back their U-Boat practices through 1916. When they started again in 1917, Wilson eventually asked for, and received, a declaration of war against Germany. The Yanks indeed did come and turned the tables of the conflict against the Axis powers and the war eventually came to an end.

 

By the way, the man who took Bryan’s place was Robert Lansing….no relation to the actor, seen here as Mr. Gary Seven from a famous Star Trek episode. The actor’s real name was Robert Howell Brown. He took his stage name from the town of Lansing, Michigan.

Today's Convective Outlook SPC

Surface Forecast Wednesday Evening

Weather Bottom Line:  One certainty that shows up when looking at the vertical profile progs is that we will remain unstable for the next few days.  There is a boundary stalled to our north and so waves will run along the boundary and enhance the risk for rain and potentially the risk for strong storms.  As I had indicated previously,  a wave did in fact move to our north Wednesday morning with the appendage sticking down enough to provide some rain and t’storms just north of Louisville but not enough to engulf the entire area.  I’m supposing that as the wave moves by, the stationary boundary will sag a shade farther south in its wake.  So, the next waves that come along will track a bit farther South.  Timing and exact route of these waves will remain problematic and will probably only be known when they actually initiate storms.

Tornado Probability Through Thu AM

Nevertheless, the NAM puts a wave on us around Midnight Wednesday night.   The parameters are pretty healthy then and the NAM even ramps up the SWEAT index to near the 400 threshold for an enhanced twister risk.  It also has even stronger feedback for Thursday.  The GFS advertises more consistent rain chances throughout the day but takes its parameters highest throughout Thursday and even Friday.  Probably a pretty good idea to keep abreast of the weather the next few days.  By late Friday, the front is progged to sag South.  Some data suggests that another wave forms in the Southern Plains on Friday and moves it into the Ohio Valley on Saturday, thus dragging the front back our way.  Should that occur, then we may be vulnerable to more rain and possibly strong storms.  We’ll wait to see what happens. So, don’t panic, but keep your ears on.  Biggest risk the next few days will be for wind and hail but one cannot discount the tornado risk as super cells may pop up on an isolated basis.

Severe Hail Probability Through Thu AM

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009
  
   VALID 101300Z – 111200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO
   ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   BROAD BELT OF 40-50KT W/WSWLY FLOW EXTENDS FROM COAST-TO-COAST TODAY
  

Severe Wind Probability Through Thu AM

 BETWEEN LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER CANADA AND NRN BORDER
   STATES…AND SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO/SRN TX AND THE ADJACENT
   GULF OF MEXICO. NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL
   BECOME SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SRN GREAT PLAINS TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH EJECTS NEWD FROM AZ/NM.
  
   AT THE SFC…A COMPLEX QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE…FRACTURED IN
   A NUMBER OF AREAS BY DIURNAL/EPISODIC CONVECTION…EXTENDS FROM ERN
   CO FRONT RANGE SEWD TO KS/OK…AND THEN EWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
   THE FRONT BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFUSE FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST.
   
  

Convective Outlook Thursday SPC

 TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION ALONG/NEAR THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THIS
   FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE MODULATED BY SEVERAL COMPLEX FACTORS TODAY
   INCLUDING: 1)FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST…AS WELL AS A WEAKER LEADING
   LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM MO EWD TO THE OH VALLEY…2)
   PLACEMENT/LOCATION OF RESIDUAL STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
   LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FRONTAL WAVES/ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER
   ASCENT…AND 3) LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXES/DISCONTINUITIES INCLUDING
   RESIDUAL DRYLINE INFLUENCE ANALYZED ACROSS TX PNHDL/WRN OK…AND
   DEEPER MOISTURE SURGE SITUATED FROM TX NWD/NEWD TO THE OZARKS.
  
   …SRN PLAINS…
   IT IS DIFFICULT TO BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH REGARD TO STORM
   DEVELOPMENT/CHARACTER ACROSS THIS LARGE REGION TODAY GIVEN
   COMPLEXITIES ALREADY MENTIONED. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THE MID/UPPER
   TROUGH EJECTING FROM AZ/NM WAS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED
   STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER A BROAD REGION. RECENT DEVELOPMENT WAS ALSO
   INCREASING ALONG CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM TRANS-PECOS AREA NEWD ALONG
   THE CAPROCK WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE WAS OVERCOMING DRIER AIR
   IN THE WAKE OF DRYLINE SURGE THAT OCCURRED ON TUESDAY.
  
   STRENGTHENING BACKGROUND ASCENT ON THE LARGE SCALE WILL SUPPORT AN
   INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS TX/OK…AND THE FRONTAL ZONE
   SITUATED ACROSS THE PNHDLS AND NRN OK…EXPECT MORE VIGOROUS AND
   ORGANIZED STORMS TO BECOME MOST PREVALENT NEAR THESE FEATURES AND
   BOUNDARIES. STORM INTENSITY IN TX MAY BE LIMITED BY SUBSTANTIAL
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. A CORRIDOR OF
   STRONGER SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FROM TX PNHDL
   ACROSS WRN OK…AND NEAR THE FRONT IN OK/SRN KS WHERE LATEST
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MORE LIMITED CLOUD COVER EXISTS THIS
   MORNING.
  
   STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AS MID LEVEL FLOW
   STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. STORM
   SCALE AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCES YET TO DEVELOP/OCCUR WILL PLAY A
   SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW AND WHERE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS REALIZED.
   IN ADDITION TO WIND…LARGE HAIL…AND SOME TORNADO
   POTENTIAL…UPSCALE ORGANIZATION INTO AN MCS OR TWO APPEARS LIKELY
   FROM KS TO TX LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
   HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES MIGHT BE DEPICTED IN LATER
   OUTLOOKS AS STORMS INCREASE AND ORGANIZE THROUGH LATER TODAY.
  
   …MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY…
   A ZONE OF ENHANCED STORM POTENTIAL MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM MO/IL
   EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. LIFT WITH THE
   LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE NOW DRIVING STORMS ACROSS SERN MO WILL
   CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RESIDUAL
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
   ACROSS THE REGION ATTM…POCKETS OF GREATER SURFACE-BASED
   DESTABILIZATION APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   PERSISTENT PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. EFFECTIVE FLOW AS FORECAST
   WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
   POTENTIAL.
  
   …EAST…
   ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL/TERRAIN-INDUCED DEEP CONVECTION IS FORECAST
   FROM PA/WV SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE
   ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY AIDED BY DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING…BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW…AND WEAK HEIGHT
   FALLS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
   STRONG HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTRIBUTE DOWNBURST AND
   SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30KT
   INDICATES PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR.
   HOWEVER…SOME LOCAL/GREATER ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE AS STORM
   MERGERS GENERATE EXPANDING/STRONG COLD POOLS.
  
   …HIGH PLAINS…
   MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AGAIN AID STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CO/SERN
   WY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NE/KS TODAY WITHIN SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED
   FLOW FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH MAY LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS STORMS COMPARED TO PRIOR
   DAYS…INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO ACT TO
   INHIBIT GREATER DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS…PRESENCE OF LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT…LOCALLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG RESIDUAL
   FRONTAL ZONE…AND STEEP LAPSE RATES…SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW
   SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
   THIS CONVECTION COULD CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS AND MOVE ACROSS WRN
   KS/NE LATER TONIGHT.
  
   ..CARBIN/HURLBUT.. 06/10/2009

Pres. Fibs To Gin Up Support For War; Chinese Order To Smoke Withdrawn; Welcome To The “Murder Castle” May 7, 2009

Chinese Gov't Must Be Pleased With This Taxpayer

No Forced Smoking:  The a county Government in China recently ordered government workers to increase their smoking collectively by several hundred thousand or face a fine.  The idea was that the county needed to increase its tax revenue.  After a hue and cry, the order had been rescinded with the county officials claiming the order was not for all cigarettes but only for the local brand as they were trying to encourage those who smoked to smoke local.  This illustrates a situation I have envisioned in this country.  The government sued tobacco companies for their product.  The tobacco companies had to pay millions and millions. But, state governments need people to smoke to help their budgets.  What would happen if the tobacco companies decided it was not worth the potential litigation costs to continue to sell their products in this country?  Then you’d have all of these states way short of money.  Think the very people who sued the companies in the first place would then tell them they had to sell cigarettes in their states?  If the product is so dangerous as to merit a lawsuit, then ban it.  But, the government doesn’t do that because it needs the money.  A great case of duplicity on the part of government.  Another example is the banning of smoking in public places.  It’s a legal product used properly by people of age.  But the government forces private business owners to prevent their patrons from using the product.  If it was such an annoyance, then businesses that allowed tobacco use would go out of business and those who did not would flourish on its own.  But, since thats not the case, then government intervenes.  Again, if its that much of a danger to the public welfare, then ban it.  But again…they need the money. As it is, state and local governments are taxing it so heavily that people just may quit.  The useage goes down and voila…empty government coffers.  When that happens, lets see how those governments make up the short fall…by raising taxes elsewhere…also watch the smuggling of cigarettes increase.

 

Chicago Murder Castle

On This Date In History:

On this date in 1896, a notorious serial murderer was hanged.  His name was Herman W. Mudgett and he had secretly built what was called the “murder castle” or the “torture castle” in Chicago.  The events are too gruesome for me to relay.  If you want to read about it, be my guest. Here’s the link below.  The only reason I put this in is to remind you that there have been dangerous nutbags in the past so don’t think that any heinous goofs that are produced today are anything new.

Herman W. Mudgett

 

Lusitania Sank Awfully Fast

On this date in 1915, the German submarine U-20 sunk the RMS Lusitania helping to sway American public opinion against Germany and eventually helped lead the US into World War I.  All British shipping was ordered to travel at full speed and in a zig zag pattern as a precaution against German U-Boat activity.  Germany had already declared unrestricted submarine warfare against all shipping in the Atlantic providing munitions or aid toward the allied effort in the war.  The Lustitania was a luxury passenger liner and it was filled with civilians as it ran into fog. The captain slowed the ship and stopped zig zagging.  It was an easy shot for the U-Boat.  Some 1200 went down with the ship including 128 Americans.  The attack resulted in a letter of protest from President Woodrow Wilson.  The Germans claimed the ship was carrying munitions.  The US denied the charge and the American public grew quite angry as passions against the Germans grew.  The sneak attack on perhaps the most luxurious and largest passenger liner at the time created the image of the ruthlessness of the Germans.  That and the later Zimmerman Telegram , in which the Germans proposed that Mexcio attack the US should the Americans enter the war, led to the US entry into the Great War.

Here’s the rub.  The Germans were right.

Wilson Lied?

When the U-20 slammed it’s torpedo into the starboard side of the liner, almost immediately a secondary explosion rocked the ship.  The torpedo explosion probably wouldn’t have sunk the ship but the second explosion caused a huge gash in the hull and the great liner sunk in just 18 minutes.  The story told the American public was that the germans fired several torpedoes.  That was false.  What the people did not know is that the passenger liner was indeed carrying about 128 tons of munitions and supplies for the war effort.

I have yet to read anything in historical annals that say that President Wilson lied.  I suppose he had plausible deniability and historians have given him a pass.

SPC Severe Threat Thu8am to Fri8am

Thu 8am to Fri 8am Tornado Probability

Weather Bottom Line:  I was right…Wednesday was a wet day.  Look for the boundary to the south to more or less wash out and so we will be warm and humid for a good chunk of the day.  We’ll probably push to the upper 70′s to around 80.  That may be sufficient to kick off a few isolated afternoon t’storms.  That will become much more general from the late afternoon into the night as a wave sweeps up along an approaching cold front.  Even though its at night, the SPC has us in the slight risk area for severe storms.  As mentioned yesterday, the biggest threat would be for hail and high winds.  The fact that the risk area pretty much only extends eastward to our area indicates that the overnight hours should reduce the threat….thus..we’re on the fringe of the area.  The rain should be over by midday on Friday but then ramp up again on Friday night into early Saturday with another frontal boundary.  We could see some decent storms with that as well.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  

SPC Hail Probability Thu 8am to Fri 8am

 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2009
  
   VALID 071200Z – 081200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM OK/KS NEWD INTO THE WRN OH
   VALLEY…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS STRETCHING FROM THE MID
   ATLANTIC STATES SEWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   WNWLY MID LEVEL WINDS AT 50-70 KT ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE
  

SPC Severe Wind Probability

PACIFIC NW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
   STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
   PROGRESS THROUGH THIS FLOW…THOUGH NONE OF THEM ARE FORECAST TO BE
   STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS OR AMPLIFY THE ZONAL FLOW.
   AT THE SURFACE…A WEAK FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
   EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS SEWD INTO GULF COASTAL STATES. ANOTHER WEAK
   COLD FRONT/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES
   SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
  
   …NRN/CENTRAL MO EWD INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS…
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH…WHICH WAS MOVING THROUGH WY WED EVENING…IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NRN MO THU AFTERNOON AND INTO IL DURING THE
   EVENING. LARGE SCALE LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM… COMBINED
   WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 40-50 KT AND MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 2000
   J/KG…FAVOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING EWD THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM MO INTO THE WRN OH VALLEY. VEERING WINDS AND
   STRONG 1 KM SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT…ESPECIALLY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF MO…WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE AT LEAST IN THE
   MID 60S AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST. HOWEVER… THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE WIND DAMAGE…GIVEN THE
   STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT.
  
   …SERN KS/SWRN MO/NRN AND CENTRAL OK/NWRN AR…
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER…DEWPOINTS AOA 70F…AND AFTERNOON HEATING
   WILL LEAD TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS…MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000
   J/KG. HOWEVER…LACK OF ANY EVIDENT DYNAMICAL FORCING AND STRONG
   CAPPING BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB WILL LIKELY INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT
   THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHOULD ANY STORMS FORM… DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
   LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER…THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS
   BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SEWD INTO FAR SERN KS/SWRN MO/NRN OK AND LOW
   LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY…30-40 KT MID LEVEL WNWLY FLOW AND SURFACE
   BOUNDARY…AN MCS WITH HAIL AND BOWING SEGMENTS/WIND APPEARS
   LIKELY…MAINLY AFTER 05Z.
  
   …MID ATLANTIC STATES SEWD INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES…
   MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE MOIST AIR MASS IS
   WARMED FROM MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. STORMS SHOULD READILY
   DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY LOCATED IN THE
   REGION. MID LEVEL WLY WINDS AT 25 TO 40 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   MULTICELL SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS…DUE TO THE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY AND MOSTLY UNDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY MODULATED… WITH ACTIVITY
   EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
  
   ..IMY/JEWELL.. 05/07/2009

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Pres. Gets Expensive Gift! Cut Off Ear Nets Millions December 23, 2008

Who Says There Is No American Aristocracy? On this date in history, 1923, President Woodrow Wilson was given a new 1923 Rolls Royce Silver Ghost Pall Mall as a birthday present from his friends. I doubt if Santa could top that.

Cut Off Your Ear For $90 Million?

On the other side of the spectrum, a depressed and poor painter, Vincent Van Gogh must have thought Santa was bringing him a lump of coal because on this date in 1888, he took a razor and chopped off part of his left ear. I’ve never read why he chose to do that but he did end up making a painting called Self Portrait With Bandaged Ear. Though the price was never confirmed, a private collector is said to have paid $90 million for the painting. In one of the odd twists of societal history, Van Gogh had no clue he would be remembered. See, he only sold one painting his entire life! Maybe if he could see into the future he wouldn’t have felt so bad as to make him want to chop off his ear…but then again, if he had, he would never have painted a self portrait of himself with a bandaged ear…and then some rich guy would have had to find something else to do with his $90 million.

This Christmas Season, if you’re feeling down, don’t fret. Like Van Gogh, you have no idea how many people’s lives you have touched and will touch in the future. Your value on this crazy old earth is priceless…more than the richest art collector could afford.

GFS Snow Accumulation Through Christmas

Weather Bottom Line: For Louisville and points to the south, it would appear that the threat of icing is minimal as it would appear that temperatures at all levels will be above freezing by the time the rain gets going here Tuesday night.  Now, the northern part of the viewing area may be more susceptable to a brief time of freezing rain and or sleet Tuesday night.  The GFS, which you see above, does not want to paint any snow whatsoever for any part of the area through Christmas Day.  My guess is that will be the most likely scenario.  The NAM on the other hand wants to keep things cold enought that there would be snow accumulation in the extreme western and northern counties.  I doubt that will be the case.  Otherwise, Wednesday will be wet.  Christmas Day will be on the chilly side before a big warm up gets going on Friday into the first half of the weekend with somewhat cooler and seasonal conditions for Sunday.  There will be several chances for rain over the weekend.