Women’s Right To Vote Hinged On A Boy Listening to His Mother August 19, 2010

How Could Anyone Oppose These Babes?

These Guys Opposed the Chick Vote, But Wouldn't Show their Faces.

On This Date in History:

We’ve had the health care debate  and people were complaining that one side or the other may have an organized or orchestrated effort.   Now, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is suggesting that opponents to the mosque in New York City should be investigated to determine from whom their organized funding is coming.  Then, there is the argument as to whether the Tea Party is a ”grass roots effort” or a co-ordindated national movement.   The charge of “organization” comes up quite often in politics and the proper response may be , “so what?”  The Sons of Liberty was an orchestrated movement against the crown.  The Civil Rights movement was organized. The women’s suffrage movement was organized, but so were opposition groups. It has happened throughout history. Organization is what gets things done…that’s why there are political parties.  But, even with organizations, sometimes success or failure relating to a given topic may fall to an individual.

Burn became women's best friend, thanks to mom

In the Summer of 1920, the passage of the 19th Amendment giving women the right to vote was very much in doubt. Only one more state legislature had to ratify the amendment but the remaining states were in limbo. It was called the war of the roses. Supporters of the amendment, the “Suffs” which was short for “suffragists”, wore yellow roses while those opposed, or the “Antis” clung to a red rose.

Febb Is An Unsung Heroine

On August 18 in Tennessee, a vote was taken and it resulted in a tie. Young legislator Harry Burn was from the “anti” county of McMinn and he wore a red rose. But, it seems young Burn got a letter from his mother Febb Ensminger Burn who told her son to” be a good boy” and help put the “rat” in ratification and so on the second vote  the changed his vote and the amendment passed.  On this date in 1920, when the sun rose, the suffrage movement finally succeeded and women had gained the right to vote. Burn said, “I know that a mother’s advice is always safest for a boy to follow.” So, all you ladies out there should lift a glass to Febb….and hope the World Meteorological Organization doesn’t find out and call a hurricane Febb as it would most certainly make its presence known. But, truth be told, we should all perhaps thank Febb because the wisdom of women in the voting booth is most likely a necessary ingredient in making the nation a more perfect Union.

Weather Bottom Line: We really won’t have a warm front per se coming through today but just a return flow from the south as the old boundary washed out south of the region.  We most likely get up to around 90 or so today and then on Friday I suspect that, not only will we inch into the low 90′s but the humidity will again be an issue.  Saturday, a pre frontal trof will be lurking to our west so the prospects of it working in conjunction with higher heat and humidity to give us some afternoon t’storm activity will be enhanced.  The cold front itself will be creeping down here over night and then get bogged down in the region, either just to our north or south, either way, the mercury should be held down on Sunday with a chance of rain from time to time.

Woman Jailed For Voting; Trains Finally Run on Time November 18, 2009

The Criminal Susan B Anthony!

On This Date in History: The presidential election of 1872 was rather odd and somewhat brutal. It was between President Ulysses S. Grant and New York Tribune editor Horace Greeley. The first term of Grant had been clouded by some questionable moves and charges of corruption. When Grant was renominated, the Liberal Republicans split off and nominated Horace Greeley, who never saw a social reform he didn’t like. As an editor, he was brilliant. As a candidate, he was sorely lacking. The Democrats surprisingly nominated Greeley, who had once said, “all Democrats may not be rascals but all of the rascals are Democrats.” I guess the Democrats figured that they could get the split Republican vote as well as Southern Democrats who would vote for anyone who was for amnesty of Confederates and the withdrawal of federal troops from the South.

Susan B. Anthony

While Grant spent his summer at the seashore, the newspapers went wild with negative press on their former rival, Greeley. They made sport of his favoring prohibition, vegetarianism and living on communes. The Phrenological Journal even measured his cranium and came out with a detailed analysis of why he was unfit for office. Greeley grew despondent and was sent into a deeper depression as he sat at his wife’s bedside where she died on October 30, 1872. A week later he got swamped at the polls winning 6 states to Grant’s 30.

Sue Carried her Fight to our Friend Grover

If this weren’t enough, suffragette Susan B. Anthony carried through on her scheme to force the issue of women’s voting. On November 1, 1872 Anthony and a group of other women went to register to vote. They were rebuffed but Anthony threatened to sue and quoted the 14th Amendment and New York law that was silent on the subject of sex. The men who were responsible for registration allowed them to register out of fear and also because they figured that if anything went wrong, it would fall on the heads of the ladies. They were right. Anthony and a few other women voted on November 5, 1872 but later a Democrat poll watcher complained that Anthony had cast an illegal ballot. Susan B. Anthony was arrested on this date in 1872 for voting.    The trial of Susan B Anthony began on June 17, 1873 and ultimately, she was found guilty and fined $100 plus court costs but she openly defied the judge saying that she would never pay up.   She was right…she never paid.   The 19th Amendment was passed four years after Anthony’s death.   Here is a complete detail of the events surrounding the arrest of Susan B. Anthony.

 

No Way to Run A Railroad

World Time Zone Map...Invented by American Corporate Capitalists?

It’s About Time: It used to be that each town in the nation could set its own time. In New York it was noon while in Philadelphia it was 11:55 AM. Towns would go by “God’s Time” or “Sun Time”. I have no idea what the former was but the latter was probably derived by local noon i.e. when the sun was at its highest, which seems difficult since that would be different every day. Wisconsin had 38 different local times. That was no way to run a railroad. The railroads were the first mode of transportation that went rapidly over long distances. Scheduling depended on time, not just for passengers but also for the safety of the system. There were numerous train collisions because of confusion of time. So, in on this date in 1883, the railroads had the entire nation synchronize the time by using time zones, theoretically 24 that would circle the earth based on the prime meridian at Greenwich, England. Of course, some towns in true American style resisted. Bath, Maine rang its town square bell 20 minutes before noon every day and Augusta, Georgia insisted on pushing its clock ahead at noon to maintain sun time. But, corporate America eventually won out with the passage of the Standard Time Act in 1918. So, all of you who think that corporate America produces nothing but evil, take a look at your watch.

7PM Wed...system still lurking

Weather Bottom Line:  From MIC John Gordon at the Louisville National Weather Service…this is GIS DAY! They’re breaking out the party hats at the local weather office.  And let me tell you.  When you get a bunch of meteorologists together, they know how to party.  But, its been tough for them to come up with good party favors ever since the slide rule went out of favor.

As for the weather story, it remains the same.  We have the occluded front and the dying cut off low meandering slowly to the north and so the showers will stick around for the next day or so.  I would say “off and on” but the definition of showers is rain that is intermittent.  So, if you hear someone on TV say “off and on showers” or “intermittent showers” they are being redundant.   The thing is, they probably don’t even know that they are being redundant.  But, then again, I got nailed a few times for a grammatical faux paux so perhaps I should keep my rocks in the bag as I live in a glass house.  Anyway, call it cloudy and damp through Wednesday with perhap a few lingering light showers for the first part of Thursday.  Bottom line is the weekend looks good.  Pretty fair amount of sunshine but temperatures will be more seasonal than we’ve seen with highs in the 50′s and lows in the 30′s and 40′s.

Just a side note:  if the GFS is correct, then next Tuesday we may have something interesting to talk about with a strong front.  But, its a week away.  Let’s get through these crappy days and then enjoy the weekend before we worry about that.

Women Had Right to Vote, Lost it, Then got back the right to vote November 16, 2009

New Jersey Women Stormed To Take Back What Was Once Theirs

Early Suffrage Poster Featuring George

On This Date in History: The original constitution of the state of New Jersey said that “all inhabitants” who met residency requirements and had a net worth of at least 50 pounds had the right to vote. I assume that it only meant whites but it certainly made no reference to women. The women of New Jersey apparently gave a collective yawn. They had not pushed for suffrage and there is no record of any woman voting prior to 1790.

Things went awry though in 1797 when a state legislature seat was up for grabs between Newark’s John Condict and William Crane of Elizabeth. Condict looked to be the winner until 75 women from Elizabeth showed up to vote for their favorite son. Condict still managed to hang on but the race was on for the female vote. Women were hauled to the polls in wagons and carriages by candidates in the elections that followed. (sound familiar?) Some of the ladies were even underage. But, in 1807, the freedom train came to a halt.

Over 100 years after women of NJ lost the vote, Billy Sunday took up their cause

Once again, the players were Newark and Elizabeth and the issue was the location of a new courthouse. Women were tossed and pulled by both sides as they tried to get them to the polls and convince them of the merits of each side’s position. Hijinx were at a premium as even young boys dressed up as women to try to cast a ballot. The rank and file of the elites were “shocked” by this “saturnalia of corruption and abuse” and on this date in 1807 New Jersey lawmakers quickly adopted new voting laws that took away the vote from the ladies. It would take over 100 years for them to get it back.

Moral to the story: Don’t take your opportunities for granted and squander what you have.

Wednesday 7 AM

Weather Bottom Line: Song remains the same as far as the forecast goes except that my great idea that things would get pushed back a bit seems to be out of favor with the machines.  This cut off low is just plodding along as it moves through its way on the downside of life.  Whenever you see an occluded front, that means that the storm is on the weakening phase of its lifecycle.  Both the GFS and the NAM advertise rain beginning on Tuesday morning, though the GFS is early morning and the NAM is mid morning.  Both carry rain through Wednesday night with totals of .86″ and .88″ respectively.  It won’t rain the whole time.  The graphic above depicts the occlusion already past us on Wednesay morning with our area in the dry slot between the front and the parent low.  So, if this were to come about as shown, then there would be a break before another round of showers.  My guess is that this guy is going so slow that we will be cloudy for the balance of the week, perhaps improving somewhat on Friday.  Temperatures will be closer to seasonal by then.

Woman Gets Amnesia After Sex; Nation Has Amnesia Regarding 1st Woman Elected to Congress November 8, 2009

We’ve heard of amnesia.  Few of us have ever really encountered anyone actually getting amnesia and our knowledge of the condition is generally limited to tv shows or movies.  There was the recent case of the man in Seattle who apparently had amnesia.  Many people speculated that he was faking it.  But, amnesia is apparently more common than we think.  Transient Global Amnesia occurs with some frequency in people over 50.  It is triggered when there is strenuous activity.  That would include bowel movements.  That’s got to be some trauma…both the event that caused the amnesia and the resulting amnesia.  But, there is another fairly common causation.  Sex.  This woman suffered from amnesia after sex with her husband.  Oh, she finally recovered but she can’t recall one thing: having sex with her husband.  Experts say she must have had fun.

On This Date In History: The 19th Amendment to the Constitution that guaranteed women the right to vote was not ratified until August of 1920. However, on this date in 1916, Jeanette Rankin(bio) was basking in the glow of becoming the first woman elected to Congress on the previous day. How does that work?

Well, western states were in a somewhat leadership position regarding suffragettes. Wyoming gave women the vote in 1869 when it was still a territory. Utah, Idaho and Colorado voted for the suffragettes by the turn of the century. One must remember, there is no such thing as a Federal Election. All elections are state or local. So, states can pass their own voting laws. Rankin was from Montana and after working in New York as a social worker and getting involved in the women’s suffrage movement. She moved home to Montana in 1914 because she believed that the western states offered the best opportunity to gain women’s suffrage due to their pioneering spirit that she thought gave more respect to women and their ability. She was right because shortly after she moved there, women in Montana got the right to vote. She was elected to Congress in 1916 with strong support from men and women. When she went to Washington, the nation looked to see if she could handle the office.

Several books on Rankin Available (click image)

Handling the office was not an issue. What became an issue was her strongly held beliefs. She was elected as a Progressive Republican and she held strong pacifist views. When the vote to enter World War I came up, she voted against it. Even though 55 other Congressmen voted against it, she was ridiculed by many as not having the ability to take on the responsibility of national office. Others though said she showed strong, courageous leadership in her vote. She remained in office through World War II. She held on to her convictions and voted against that war too. She is the only member of Congress to have voted against the United States entry in both world wars. This time, she voted alone.

Old Gal Still Stirred things up in 1960's

Seems Jeanette was one of those who thought that President Roosevelt had deliberately provoked the attack on Pearl Harbor. That didn’t sit well with anyone, including her constituents in Montana. So, instead of being defeated, she declined to run in 1943. But, she wasn’t done. In 1968, the 88 year old Rankin led a march on Washington to protest the Vietnam War. Rankin died in 1973 but you’ve to admire her. While I would not necessarily agree with her positions, one has to acknowledge that, unlike most politicians, she had a core belief and never knuckled under and remained active in promoting that belief until her last breath. Rather remarkable on many levels if you think about it.  The Jeanette Rankin Foundation awards scholarships or low-income women over the age of 35.

Tuesday 7 AM wet drive to work?

Weather Bottom Line:  A spectacular Sunday will lead us into an almost equally as nice Monday.  Perhaps it’s time to use up that extra sick day for the year.  Highs again will be in the low 70′s with some folks perhaps pushing the mid 70′s.  But, clouds will be on the increase late in the day.  A cold front is sweeping down from the west and northwest.  Chances for rain will start to increase late Monday evening and continue to rise into Tuesday when there will be a pretty fair chance for rain and maybe some rumbles of thunder.  However, I suspect that the best chance for rain will be sometime before sunrise to just after midday so there will probably be insufficient heating to create much noise.  The rest of the week into the weekend look pretty quiet with highs in the low 60′s with mid 60′s perhaps by Friday.  It is this front that will pick up Hurricane Ida.

Women Get Railroaded with the Stroke of a Pen wielded by Men September 18, 2009

Women's Railroad Career Came to a Crashing Halt

On This Date in History:  When President Woodrow Wilson decided it was time that America get involved in the Great War, the military draft was brought back.  Millions of men either volunteered or were drafted into the ranks, leaving a gap in many civilian services.  In the early 20th Century, women who did work were usually employed as school teachers or seamstresses and perhaps in textile sweat shops.  Men made up the vast majority of the labor force.  So, that meant that public services such as mass transit were in jeopardy when all the men ran off to fight the Hun.  In 1917, the New York and Queens Railroad began hiring women to run its trolley.  By 1918, twenty-five “conductorettes” could be found on the lines in Queens.  A newspaper said that the ladies were doing such a splendid job that a few had been appointed as inspectors.  The railroad was so happy with their work that it supplied them with $17 winter overcoats and doubled their pay to $25 a week.  They then made a commitment to keep them on the payroll after the war was over.  Management said, “The women conductors have come to stay  on our lines just as long as they want to continue in their present jobs.  We now have about 50 and are taking more on as fast as they apply for positions.”  It’s good to get promises in writing. 

Al Smith Helped the Ladies by Firing Them

In May 1919, New York Governor Al Smith decided to be Mr. Helper and perhaps he was in cahoots with railroad management who wanted to back out of their commitment but needed some cover.  So Big Al signed a bill to “better the conditions of women.”  It was the kind of help the ladies could have done without.  The bill mandated that women could only work 54 hours a week.  Men of course, were able to work longer hours.  So, on this date in 1919, management of the New York and Queens Railroad prepared the pink slips for all of their female employees who were to work their last day on September 20, 1919.  But, they did get to keep the overcoats.

Sunday 8 AM

Weather Bottom Line:  Just a little bit of a wrinkle in the forecast.  We still have the low ejecting from the Southwest coming our way increasing rain chances on Saturday night and especially on Sunday.  But, I had mentioned that next week there were indications of a big cool down.  The consensus on all of the models is that the big trof that  looked to come around here will be in the plains.  There will be a big fat low that will get stuck and just spin around.  The end result will be a constant inflow of moisture our way.  For that reason, we will probably be held in the 70′s next week, maybe even low 70′s but it will be due to rain and clouds much of the week.   I think maybe a 40-60 percent chance of rain for just about all of the first 4 days of the week can be expected.  The actual cool air will be to our west.

Women Can Vote Thank to One Man’s Mom; No Beer Summits Lemonade Lucy’s White House August 19, 2009

How Could Anyone Oppose These Babes?

These Guys Opposed the Chick Vote, But Wouldn't Show their Faces.

On This Date in History: 

We’ve got the health care debate going on and people are complaining that one side or the other may have an organized or orchestrated effort.  The proper response may be , “so what?”  The Sons of Liberty was an orchestrated movement against the crown.  The Civil Rights movement was organized.  The women’s suffrage movement was organized, but so were opposition groups.  It has happened throughout history.  Organization is what gets things done…that’s why there are political parties.

In the Summer of 1920, the passage of the 19th Amendment giving women the right to vote was very much in doubt. Only one more state legislature had to ratify the amendment but the remaining states were in limbo. It was called the war of the roses. Supporters of the amendment, the “Suffs” which was short for “suffragists”, wore yellow roses while those opposed, or the “Antis” clung to a red rose. On August 18 in Tennessee, a vote was taken and it resulted in a tie. Young legislator Harry Burn was from the “anti” county of McMinn and he wore a red rose. But, it seems young Burn got a letter from his mother Febb Ensminger Burn who told her son to be a good boy and help put the “rat” in ratification and so on the second vote, he changed his vote, the amendment passed on this date in 1920, when the sun rose, the suffrage movement finally succeeded and women had gained the right to vote. Burn said, “I know that a mother’s advice is always safest for a boy to follow.” So, all you ladies out there should lift a glass to Febb….and hope the World Meteorological Organization doesn’t find out and call a hurricane Febb.

If you were in the White House of Lucy Hayes, the glass you lifted would have been the unleaded version and you certainly couldn’t be part of a “beer summit.”  President Rutherford B. Hayes was no teetotaler but his administration followed that of President Grant whose White House had been assumed to be flowing with Whiskey. Hayes wanted to distance himself from the reputed Whiskey-soaked, scandal-ridden Grant and he had a wife, Lucy, who was big into the temperance movement. So, On This date in 1877, booze was banned at the White House and Lucy became known as “Lemonade Lucy.” The hired help though thought that they had put one over on the President and his wife.

See the chef made a “Roman Punch” part of the daily meal with a hollowed out orange filled with some sherbet-like concoction. Many a Senator was quite relieved when the tasted the brew because they were convinced it was filled with as much rum it could possibly hold. But, the president had the last laugh. Hayes wrote in his diary that he had ordered that the staff fill the punch “strongly with the same flavor that is found in Jamaica rum…There was not a drop of spirits in them!” Yes, indeed….quite the clever man that Rutherford B. Hayes. Too bad he wasn’t as clever in doing his job. After one term, the sitting president was unable to secure the nomination from his own party, losing out to eventual Republican President James Garfield. But, it’s a lesson to the kids…don’t ever think you can pull one over on the old man!

SPC Severe Threat Thu 8am to Fri 8am

Weather Bottom Line:  As I’ve been touting all week, Thursday looks to be the best chance for rain.  My sunflowers need it but I”m a bit concerned because they are nearly 10 feet tall with big old flowers on top. I’m afraid of strong winds that may cause problems.  We have lots of moisture.  This afternoon, there will be scattered storms mainly popping up and roaming up from the southwest.  Now, on Thursday, we have a front coming down.   The boys at the HPC have the front depicted as on our doorstep by 8pm on Thursday.  However, by 8am the next day, its only approaching Lexington.  Hmm..Well, the front seems to get hung up with  a vort lobe swinging around.  It’s the timing of that lobe that is the bugaboo.  See, the 12Z GFS just has all of the severe parameters go off the chart at 1am on Friday.  It also puts out 2.7″ of rain from 7am Thu to 7am Fri.  As is typically the case, the NAM is less bullish, with only about a quarter inch of rain for the same time frame.  It has pretty high Bulk Richardson numbers and CINS but the SWEAT is rather pedestrian somewhere in the 250 range and the other parameters also are limited somewhat…but it too advertises the 1am Friday time frame for the biggest severe threat.  All models dig the trof way into the Dixie States.  So, it’s a strong front and the general idea of these models is that Hurricane Bill ends up just east of Maine with probably high seas for New England as the strong trof shoots Bill to the north very rapidly.  For us, my guess is that we get more rain than advertised from the NAM and it may be heavy at times. I mean, come on…you can feel the moisture out there.  The air will be therefore pretty unstable so I would think that Thursday night we can expect some watch boxes and strong storms.  But, if they aren’t in the area in the evening or shortly after sundown, then they would tend to not be a general ferocity but instead a few scattered strong storms overnight.   The timing will be key.  There’s just so much potential energy, I just can’t believe that it will be as quiet as the NAM thinks.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009
  
   VALID 201200Z – 211200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS LOWER MI AND OH SWWD
   TO RED RIVER REGION OF SRN PLAINS…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGHING ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS UPPER
   MIDWEST AND CENTRAL CONUS…WITH SLOW EWD SHIFT ACROSS MID-UPPER MS
   VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS.  NEARLY PHASED BLEND OF
   AMBIENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSORTED MVC’S — NOW EVIDENT IN
   MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND REFLECTIVITY LOOPS OVER LOWER MO VALLEY
   REGION — IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD REMAINDER DAY-1 AND BECOME ABSORBED
   INTO DEVELOPING MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER MN.  AS THIS
   OCCURS…ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH — NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
   IMAGERY INVOF ERN MT BORDER — IS FCST TO DIG SEWD…REACHING BASE
   OF SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER SRN IA/NRN MO BY 20/12Z.  THIS PERTURBATION
   SHOULD EJECT NEWD ACROSS LM AND LOWER MI DURING ENSUING 12 HOURS AS
   ANOTHER SPEED MAX DIGS SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MO
   VALLEY REGION.  AFTER ABOUT 21/00Z…PROGS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
   CONSIDERABLY REGARDING CURVED PATH OF PRIMARY MID-UPPER VORTEX
   CENTER OVER MN…WITH PREFERRED SREF CONSENSUS BEING CLOSE TO
   OPERATIONAL WRF POSITION OVER LS BY 21/12Z.
  
   AT SFC…CYCLONE NOW OVER CENTRAL MB IS FCST TO OCCLUDE DAY-1 WITH
   FRONTAL TRIPLE-POINT LOW FORMING INVOF WRN LS BY START OF PERIOD.
   LOW THEN SHOULD PIVOT EWD ACROSS LS THEN NEWD OVER NRN ONT THROUGH
   21/12Z.  ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT AT 20/12Z — LIKELY MODULATED ON
   MESOSCALE BY BANDS/CLUSTERS OF ONGOING CONVECTION — SHOULD EXTEND
   ACROSS SRN WI…WRN/CENTRAL IL AND S-CENTRAL MO…SWWD ACROSS SWRN
   OK TO E-CENTRAL NM.  AS DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE BECOMES STACKED OVER NRN
   ONT/ERN LS REGION…COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER
   MI…INDIANA AND MO BY 21/00Z…SWWD OVER N-CENTRAL/NW TX AND SERN
   NM.  BY END OF PERIOD…WRN SEGMENT OF FRONT MAY DECELERATE OVER W
   AND CENTRAL TX…WHILE STILL MOVING EWD ACROSS UPPER OH VALLEY INTO
   CENTRAL/NRN APPALACHIAN REGION.  SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD
   ACROSS PORTIONS LOWER MI…LE…AND INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS BY
   EARLY IN PERIOD…REACHING ERN ONT AND SRN QUE BY 21/00Z.
  
   …OH AND LOWER MI TO SRN PLAINS…
   A FEW BANDS OF STG-SVR TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN PERIOD
   ALONG…OR MORE PROBABLY JUST AHEAD OF…THAT SEGMENT OF SFC COLD
   FRONT FROM OK TO OZARKS TO WI.  MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR MRGL
   DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL.  FOREGOING AIR MASS IS FCST TO
   DESTABILIZE DIURNALLY — FROM MID-DAY INTO LATE AFTERNOON –
   WEAKENING MLCINH IN SUPPORT OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.  PREFRONTAL
   SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO 70S F SHOULD BE COMMON FROM LOWER MI TO
   RED RIVER VALLEY…WITH STG DIABATIC HEATING OUTSIDE ANY SWATHS OF
   THICK CLOUD COVER PRODUCED BY EARLIER/ONGOING ACTIVITY.  LAPSE RATES
   ALOFT WILL INCREASE WITH SWWD EXTENT OVER FRONTAL ZONE…LARGELY
   ACCOUNTING FOR SIMILAR TRENDS IN BUOYANCY.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   PRE-STORM MLCAPE IN 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER PORTIONS LOWER
   MI…WITH 3500-4000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS SERN OK…N-CENTRAL/NE TX
   AND AR.  FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE EVIDENT
   ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT.  WIND PROFILES WILL BE MORE NEARLY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL OVER GREAT LAKES STATES…BUT WITH FAVORABLE SPEED
   SHEAR…WHEREAS LARGER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BENEATH WEAKER MID-LEVEL
   WINDS WILL PREVAIL SWWD TO RED RIVER REGION.  DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD
   BE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS MOST OF OUTLOOK AREA…WITH RELATIVE
   CONCENTRATION OF HAIL POTENTIAL EXPECTED FROM ARKLATEX TO RED RIVER
   WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE FCST WITH POSSIBILITY OF
   LONGER-LASTING DISCRETE MODE.
  
   MORE SPECIFIC/LARGER CONCENTRATIONS OF SVR PROBABILITIES…IF
   ANY…WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON MESOSCALE AND SMALLER PROCESSES –
   I.E. PREFRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES…AND PACE OF EVOLUTION TO
   CLUSTERED AND LINEAR STORM MODES.
  
   …LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC…
   MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STG SFC HEATING…ALONG AND S OF SFC WARM
   FRONT…WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS
   FROM MID-DAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY UPPER
   60S F WILL HELP TO OFFSET MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES — E.G. 6-6.5
   DEG C/KM FROM 700-500 MB — TO PRODUCE MLCAPE IN 1000-2000 J/KG
   RANGE WITH NEGLIGIBLE CAPPING.  LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS AND BULK
   SHEAR EACH ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EWD FROM CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK
   AREA…HOWEVER VENTILATING ANVIL-LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
   STG.  POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH MAIN CONCERN
   BEING STG-SVR DOWNDRAFTS…AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
  
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2009

Hurricane Ike Oil Spills? Rain Gauges to be Filled? Women Strip-Searched for Thrills? Cuban Joan of Arc Release Fulfilled? October 6, 2008

HPC Rain Forecast For Wed Oct 8, 2008

If you can’t have the rain you need, you may as well have a great weekend and we certainly had that. Now, its down to business and we’ll see if we can’t get some rain in here. A large, complex storm system is plodding across the nation and will bring some much needed relief by midweek. Look for some high clouds early Monday with the passage of a warm front then just some friendly white puffies in the afternoon with mid 80′s. Tuesday will be similar except we become mostly cloudy late. A few showers may develop Tuesday night and then more general rainfall can be expected with a few t’storms possible on Wednesday. Most of the showers should be out of the area by midday Thursday but the clouds will hang around. I suspect that most people will get a half to 3/4 inches of rain out of this event. Temperatures for those two days will be held down due to the clouds but the mercury will move back above seasonal levels for the latter part of the week into next weekend as the air behind the front is more pacific in nature rather than Canadian. The rain we get won’t require the building of an ark, but should bring some relief to everyone.

Gulf Production Platform After Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Ike Environmental Concerns: Now, Hurricane Ike went over much of the nation’s offshore oil producing concerns and affected a good chunk of the national refining capacity. One can expect some environmental affects. In relation to the number of facitilites affected adversely by extreme weather, the spills were really remarkably little. However, once again, the media insists on hyping things. Notice in the article below from the Associated Press how they say 500,000 gallons, and not 11,900 barrels. (I’ve commented on this before) On the one hand, everyone knows what a gallon is but not as many know what constitutes a barrel. Yet, the media routinely reports oil usage and production in the industry standard of barrels. In recent years, reporters have gone to gallons when reporting oil spills…its 42 times bigger when you use gallons instead of barrels. Anyway, the article begins with saying over a half millions gallons of oil were spilled. Then you read farther and find that there were nearly 450 instances, which is an average of 1100 gallons. Then you read that in the Gulf of Mexico, of the 50 platforms damaged, there was one leakage of oil…One…and it was of 8400 gallons. Kinda gets your attention, until you do the math and find its 200 barrels. 200 is not as sexy as 8400. They try to put in perspective and scare you even more when they say the amount is enough to fill an olympic sized swimming pool. But, considering the amount of oil production and refining facilities affected…that seems like a pretty good track record to me. Read the article HERE and you decide for yourself. In some instances it’s significant, but not as much as they want you to believe.

On This Date In History: In the late 19th Century, newspaper mogul William Randolph Hearst was in a pitched battle for circulation with the Joseph Pulitzer’s New York World. Hearst knew that a war would increase his circulation but the trouble was there was no war. So, when rebels in Cuba started making noise against the Spanish, who were in control of Cuba at the time, Hearst’s New York Journal sent illustrator Frederic Remington to cover the revolution. But Remington no sooner had arrived than he asked to come home because there was no war. Hearst reportedly fired off a message that read, “Please Remain. You furnish the pictures and I’ll furnish the war.”

A Hearst biographer described the tiny rebel faction as an “unkempt mob of brave but disorganized bushwhackers” who had no chance unless they got American help. So, Hearst lent a hand by printing any rebel propaganda that he could find. Remington sent back a graphic drawing of a naked woman being searched and leered at by 3 Spaniards. The Journal’s headline read, “DOES OUR FLAG PROTECT WOMEN?” The Spanish authorities had boarded an American ship and searched 3 Cuban women who were suspected of carrying rebel messages. The photo and the story served to rile up Americans. Trouble was, when the ladies got to New York, they told a reporter from the New York World that women had searched the women in privacy….a little fact that the Journal neglected to tell and Remington’s fantasy illustration did not reveal. Perhaps a more honest headline would have been “Does our Flag Protect Women Who Are Alleged Cuban Spies Hiding on American Ships in Cuban Ports?”

Cuban Joan of Arc or Rebel Leader

That wasn’t the first time that Hearst had altered reality. Prior to that, On This Date in 1897 Hearst scored another coup when he gained the release of the “Cuban Joan of Arc.” Here name was Evangenlina Cisneros and she had been put in prison for trying to kidnap a Spanish military officer. Cisneros claimed that she was trying to repel the man’s advances. Hearst made a big deal out of it and got the support of leaders of American women’s groups. When the Journal sent a reporter, the Spanish released the woman, perhaps in an attempt to quiet American unrest. How does this add up? As it turns out, Cisneros was the beautiful daughter of a rebel leader who was arrested. Evangelina pleaded with the authorities to have her father, she and her sister banished to the penal institution on the Isle of Pines off Cuba’s Southwest coast. Her beauty helped charm, first the general in charge’s son and then the general himself to comply. The Spanish version of the event is that the woman was luring a colonel into her room for the purpose of assaulting him. The girl’s version is that the colonel was trying to blackmail her into becoming her mistress and the other prisoners jumped him to protect her. Nevertheless, Hearst painted a portrait of an innocent young girl being cruelly imprisoned. Here’s the COMPLETE STORY.

The press has great power and today, as then, the press has the power to sway public opinion and shape elections and the general feeling of the country by what they report…and what they don’t report. I’d encourage you to snoop about for yourself and don’t let the press dictate your thoughts.

Anyway, as we know, Hearst got his way eventually when a few years later the USS Maine exploded in Cuban waters. Hearst was quick to blame a Spanish plot and the Americans bought it. Off to war we went, Teddy Roosevelt led his “Rough Riders” and Admiral Dewey led his fleet and the Spanish American War was over in short order with Spain giving up Cuba and the Philippines. Cuba was independent until Fidel Castro took over in 1959 and the result of the Philippines was a protracted effort by America to put down insurgents…a story that is, by the way, a much better comparison to Iraq than Vietnam ever was…its just that today’s reporters don’t know their history so they try the poor comparison with Vietnam. So far, it appears the efforts in Iraq are going much better than they did in the Philippines…but that’s another story…and HERE IT IS

Free Love and A Jules Verne Model For President! May 10, 2008

The map above is the late Friday afternoon SPC Severe Weather Outlook for Saturday morning through Sunday morning and you will find not much different from the previous outlook for the day.  Everything running on line with Saturday looking pretty good around here with some sunshine and highs in the low 70′s.  The next system moves into the area Saturday night.  Indications are that it would be late Saturday night into Sunday morning…like after midnight toward sunrise.  Rain and a thunderstorms are likely but nothing overly exciting should pop up.  There is one set of indices from the GFS that are a bit interesting but I would discount that as it doesn’t make much sense and the much more pedestrian indices based on the NAM are much more likely.  The SPC seems to agree as we aren’t even in the slight risk.  We’ll watch it but I doubt if anything will change much for us.  Poor Arkansas.  Mothers Day will probably be dry for the middle part of the day but it will be cloudy and cool and windy and a wrap around vort lobe may even trigger a few showers late in the day or the evening.  Afternoon temps may be in the 50′s.  Celebrate with Mom indoors.

On This Date In History:  On this date in 1872 Victoria Woodhull began her campaign for President.  At that time, women weren’t even allowed to vote.  Her platform was as a “free-thinking reformer” and supported free love, abortion, divorce, legalized prostitution and, of course, the women’s right to vote. One of the photos above is a portrait while the other is a cartoon showing her as the Devil.   As part of her campaign, she sent out an article congratulating preacher Henry Ward Beecher for having an affair with a married woman in his congregation.  But, she chastised him for not advocating the free love that she said he obviously practiced.  On election day, she was in jail.  The charge was for sending obscene material through the mail.   The offensive material was the Beecher article.  Reports of her personal practices of free love did not help her at the polls.  An opponent of hers didn’t learn from her mistake.

Also on the ballot was George Francis Train.  He was a millionaire with nothing else to do except to try and break speed records and advocate what he saw as struggles for freedom.  Jules Verne is said to have based his novel Around the World In 80 Days on a trip that Train once took.  But, Train didn’t count the days he spent in prison in France against his 80 days.  He got involved in an attempted revolution and barely escaped a firing squad before he continued his global journey.  He later beat his own record by going around the world in 67 1/2 days.  No word on if he cheated on that one too.  Neither he nor Woodhull were elected President. In fact, I bet you won’t find them on any 1872 election tally boards. 

But, Train had a penchant for making money because his campaign proved to be a money making venture for him.  He charged money for people to hear his speeches and he spoke over 1000 times to more than 2,000,000 people.  In an attempt to show support for Woodhull, he published a collection of biblical quotations that he said were much more obscene than anything Woodhull had written.  They slapped the old bracelets on him too and he was whisked off to jail.

Here’s a funny thing about this story.  If you look at the platform of Ms. Woodhull that was so scandalous in 1872, you will find almost every single one of them are accepted today.  If you live in Nevada, they are all legal and part of the landscape.  And to carry that point further, if you look at the Socialist Party platform of the early twentieth century that helped to feed a “red scare” following the Russian Revolution of 1917, you will be amazed at how many of the items in the platform were eventually adopted by Congress.  I bet that if  you told someone in 1900 the things would be legal and acceptable in 2000, they’d probably fall over.   Then again, they’d probably also collapse if you told them that man had walked on the moon, cured any number of diseases and that baseball players were making millions of dollars a year.

By the way….US Grant won re-election in the 1872 presidential race.