Woman Arrested For Voting! Train Wrecks Averted! Put Away the Bermuda Shorts! November 18, 2008

00Z Tue 36 hr SFC (12Z Wed)

The cold streak continues and will do so throughout the week. In spite of clouds and wind, Tuesday morning’s temperatures of the mid to upper 20′s indicate how cold the air is and, in spite of some afternoon sunshine, the afternoon highs in the upper 30′s confirm that conclusion. An even colder Wednesday start will lead to a chilly but somewhat milder afternoon. Then, another front comes through early Thursday with another shot of colder air to follow. The second half of the weekend should provide a warm up but I suspect even then, the temperatures will still be below seasonal averages. Good thing that LG&E cut their rates from the summer, which they did…no matter what our local paper reported.

On This Date in History: The presidential election of 1872 was rather odd and somewhat brutal. It was between President Ulysses S. Grant and New York Tribune editor Horace Greeley. The first term of Grant had been clouded by some questionable moves and charges of corruption. When Grant was renominated, the Liberal Republicans split off and nominated Horace Greeley, who never saw a social reform he didn’t like. As an editor, he was brilliant. As a candidate, he was sorely lacking. The Democrats surprisingly nominated Greeley, who had once said, “all Democrats may not be rascals but all of the rascals are Democrats.” I guess the Democrats figured that they could get the split Republican vote as well as Southern Democrats who would vote for anyone who was for amnesty of Confederates and the withdrawal of federal troops from the South.

While Grant spent his summer at the seashore, the newspapers went wild with negative press on their former rival, Greeley. The made sport of his favoring prohibition, vegetarianism and living on communes. The Phrenological Journal even measured his cranium and came out with a detailed analysis of why he was unfit for office. Greeley grew despondent and was sent into a deeper depression as he sat at his wife’s bedside where she died on October 30, 1872. A week later he got swamped at the polls winning 6 states to Grant’s 30.

If this weren’t enough, suffragette Susan B. Anthony carried through on her scheme to force the issue of

Sue Carried her Fight to our Friend Grover

women’s voting. On November 1, 1872 Anthony and a group of other women went to register to vote. They were rebuffed but Anthony threatened to sue and quoted the 14th Amendment and New York law that was silent on the subject of sex. The men who were responsible for registration allowed them to register out of fear and also because they figured that if anything went wrong, it would fall on the heads of the ladies. They were right. Anthony and a few others voted on November 5 but later a Democrat poll watcher complained that Anthony had cast an illegal ballot. She was arrested on this date in 1872 for voting. She was found guilty and fined $100 plus court costs but she openly defied the judge saying that she would never pay up. She was right…she never paid. The 19th Amendment was passed four years after Anthony’s death. Here is a complete detail of the events surrounding the arrest of Susan B. Anthony.

No Way to Run A Railroad

It’s About Time: It used to be that each town in the nation could set its own time. In New York it was noon while in Philadelphia it was 11:55 AM. Towns would go by “God’s Time” or “Sun Time”. I have no idea what the former was but the latter was probably derived by local noon i.e. when the sun was at its highest, which seems difficult since that would be different every day. Wisconsin had 38 different local times. That was no way to run a railroad. The railroads were the first mode of transportation that went rapidly over long distances. Scheduling depended on time, not just for passengers but also for the safety of the system. There were numerous train collisions because of confusion of time. So, in on this date in 1883, the railroads had the entire nation synchronize the time by using time zones, theoretically 24 that would circle the earth based on the prime meridian at Greenwich, England. Of course, some towns in true American style resisted. Bath, Maine rang its town square bell 20 minutes before noon every day and Augusta, Georgia insisted on pushing its clock ahead at noon to maintain sun time. But, corporate America eventually won out with the passage of the Standard Time Act in 1918. So, all of you who think that corporate America produces nothing but evil, take a look at your watch.

Woman Elected to Congress!!Tropical Storm Paloma Wants to Become Hurricane Paloma November 7, 2008

1106 12Z NAM SFC 60 hour

for a more recent update on hurricane paloma CLICK HERE

Our forecast is on track.  Look for cooler conditions on Friday and chilly conditions on Saturday as clouds wrap around and colder air filters in.  The above map is the 12Z NAM depiction of Saturday evening.  It has us around 50 but I still say we may be hard pressed to get out of the 40′s. Either way, its a lousy day and Sunday the sun should make an appearance but temperatures will still be a bit  below average.

Tropical Storm Paloma Vis Sat 1106 2145Z

Tropical Storm Paloma: Paloma is behaving itself and doing as expected.That means that it morphed

Tropical Storm Paloma NHC Track 1106 4PM EST

from Tropical Depression 17 into Tropical Storm Paloma and will become Hurricane Paloma some time on Friday.  It’s satellite presentation is looking pretty good.  The National Hurricane Center has decided to go along with what some of yesterday’s outlying models were suggesting later making the storm reasonably formidable. But, they aren’t going out on a limb. If you look at today’s 18Z spaghetti model intensity graph, you note that several models have joined the party so the official forecast is more of consensus than long shot. It’s over a good environment of warm water and light winds aloft so fairly rapid intensification is forecast to near 90 kts (about 105 mph) in the next day or so and then it runs into the south-central coast of Cuba.  There are some pretty decent mountains there to mess up the circulation.  Further, it will encounter some strong westerly winds aloft that will help zip it quickly through the Bahamas and also serve to rip it apart.  It is forecast to lose its tropical characteristics as it passes quickly Northeast through the Bahamas.  It seems impossible for it to hit the US given that a big ole trof is moving across and will stand as a sentry along the east coast.  If anything, I would think it may have a more easterly track but the official forecast goes along with the idea that it moves fast enough to avoid a more easterl coast that would bring problems to the hurricane season battered Haiti.  The 4 PM EST National Hurricane Center Forecast Discussion for Tropical Storm Paloma can be found at the bottom along with spaghetti models.

On This Date In History: The 19th Amendment to the Constitution that guaranteed women the right to vote was not ratified until August of 1920.  However, on this date in 1916, Jeanette Rankin(bio) became the first woman elected to Congress.  How does that work?

Well, western states were in a somewhat leadership position regarding suffragettes.  Wyoming gave women the vote in 1869 when it was still a territory. Utah, Idaho and Colorado voted for the suffragettes by the turn of the century.  One must remember, there is no such thing as a Federal Election. All elections are state or local.  So, states can pass their own voting laws.  Rankin was from Montana and after working in New York as a social worker and getting involved in the women’s suffrage movement.  She moved home to Montana in 1914 because she believed that the western states offered the best opportunity to gain women’s suffrage due to their pioneering spirit that she thought gave more respect to women and their ability.  She was right because shortly after she moved there, women in Montana got the right to vote.  She was elected to Congress in 1916 with strong support from men and women.  When she went to Washington, the nation looked to see if she could handle the office.

Handling the office was not an issue.  What became an issue was her strongly held beliefs.  She was elected as a Progressive Republican and she held strong pacifist views.  When the vote to enter World War I came up, she voted against it.  Even though 55 other Congressmen voted against it, she was ridiculed by many as not having the ability to take on the responsibility of national office.  Others though said she showed strong, courageous leadership in her vote.  She remained in office through World War II.  She held on to her convictions and voted against that war too.  She is the only member of Congress to have voted against the United States entry in both world wars.  This time, she voted alone. 

Seems Jeanette was one of those who thought that President Roosevelt had deliberately provoked the attack on Pearl Harbor.  That didn’t sit well with anyone, including her constituents in Montana. So, instead of being defeated, she declined to run in 1943. But, she wasn’t done.  In 1968, the 88 year old Rankin led a march on Washington to protest the Vietnam War.  Rankin died in 1973 but you’ve to admire her.  While I would not necessarily agree with her positions, one has to acknowledge that, unlike most politicians, she had a core belief and never knuckled under and remained active in promoting that belief until her last breath.  Rather remarkable on many levels if you think about it.

TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
400 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008

Tropical Storm Paloma Spaghetti Model 1106 18Z

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT PALOMA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH IMPRESSIVE BANDS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH THE STORM AND HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 850 MB
WINDS OF 61 KT…SFMR-DERIVED SURFACE WINDS OF 57 KT…AND A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO
55 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DATA.  THE SYSTEM HAS A COUPLE
OF DAYS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR AND OVER WARM WATERS BEFORE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE BY MOST GLOBAL MODELS.  RAPID
STRENGTHENING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS…ESPECIALLY IF PALOMA DEVELOPS AN EYE.  OVER THE WEEKEND…A
COMBINATION OF HIGH SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTIONS COULD CAUSE A RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE STORM.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL MODEL STILL
FORECASTS THE STORM TO BE AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA…WHICH REMAINS A VIABLE POSSIBILITY.

Tropical Storm Paloma Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1106 18Z

THE AIRCRAFT DATA REQUIRED A SLIGHT EASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE
CENTER…AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 005/7.  DISTANT
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF PALOMA SHOULD STEER THE STORM
NORTHWARD…THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS A LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
RIGHT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS DUE TO THE RELOCATION AND LIES ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THERE CONTINUE TO BE A
LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE STORM MOVES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
ONE CLUSTER OF MODELS…COMPRISED OF THE GFDL/HWRF/GFDL/BAMD…
TAKES THE STORM QUICKLY ACROSS CUBA AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM INTACT FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  ANOTHER RELIABLE SET OF MODELS…INCLUDING
THE NOGAPS/UKMET/GFDN/ECMWF…ARE MUCH SLOWER AND EITHER LOOP THE
SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN OR TEAR IT APART BEFORE REACHING CUBA.
SINCE THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING AT A FASTER PACE THAN ANTICIPATED
AND IS STRONGER…THE NHC FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE SPEEDY
SOLUTION. 

NOAA DATA BUOY 42057 SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE RADIUM OF MAXIMUM WINDS
IN A FEW HOURS.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/2100Z 16.3N  81.8W    55 KT
12HR VT     07/0600Z 17.2N  81.9W    65 KT
24HR VT     07/1800Z 18.3N  82.0W    80 KT
36HR VT     08/0600Z 19.3N  81.5W    90 KT
48HR VT     08/1800Z 20.0N  80.6W    90 KT
72HR VT     09/1800Z 21.5N  78.5W    70 KT…INLAND
96HR VT     10/1800Z 23.5N  75.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     11/1800Z 26.5N  72.0W    35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

Tropical Storm Fay, Febb and Lemonade Lucy August 19, 2008

For a more recent update on Fay, please click here.

Track Tropical Storm Fay using this National Interactive Radar(Click Here). Navigate anywhere in the country to street level if you like. Hit “animate” to loop the image. It updates about every 5 minutes.

Fay 11pm NHC fcst track 0818

Tropical Storm Fay is rather interesting and perplexing. It is wandering slowly

Fay Spaghetti Model 00Z 0819

along the SW Florida Coast. It has actually dropped by a few millibars to 995 mb so technically its getting stronger though pragmatically its not changing much. The biggest bugaboo about this guy will be the rain. I’ve been telling you all along that it may prove to be quite beneficial in that it will bring a lot of rain to drought plagued areas. That seems certain. Only trouble is that eventually it may bring too much of a good thing. So many questions…The trof that has steered the storm northward may be breaking up somewhat and a ridge from the northeast building in. As I have stated, there were several models that wanted to take the storm to the northwest and I suppose they were picking up on the ridge building in and picking the storm up to the northwest. Some still have a variance of that forecast. Others seem to have picked up on that but instead,

Fay Spaghetti Ensemble models 18Z 0818

the ridge builds in a bit more gradually and so the storm drifts north into Georgia or maybe even off the Florida Atlantic coast and then stall it followed by a movement back to the west, either through the southern Dixie states or even back into the Gulf. The NHC on Sunday night were all for taking the storm rapidly north as the ridge built in. But the data changed dramatically and by Monday, they began backing off that as numerous models advertised a big eastern ridge building in. So, they slowed the storm on the forecast and each successive forecast stifled its northern track. See, for long term forecasts, the tendency is to trend toward a new solution rather than just make a huge jump from one forecast to another. So, now they take it to Jacksonville before starting to swing it west which is similar to what I think that the data supports. After looking at stuff all day it seemed to me that the storm goes up to the SE Georgia coast, sits there and slowly goes west filling Lake Lanier and the Okefenokee Swamp before phasing with other systems. Now the NHC has trended to a similar solution. However, this is very very difficult and if you want to go nuts, look at the spaghetti model and then if you want to get really dizzy, look at the spaghetti of the ensembles. This is tough and is stretching the limits of human ability.

Many of the scenarios are still in play due to all of the variables and “if this then that” stories, I think it is most likely that this system will be remembered by the rain totals. In academic circles it will be its track. If it comes back into the Gulf and gets new life, then that will be an interesting epilogue.

On This Date in History: In the Summer of 1920, the passage of the 19th Amendment giving women the right to vote was very much in doubt. Only one more state legislature had to ratify the amendment but the remaining states were in limbo. It was called the war of the roses. Supporters of the amendment, the “Suffs” which was short for “suffragists”, wore yellow roses while those opposed, or the “Antis” clung to a red rose. On August 18 in Tennessee, a vote was taken and it resulted in a tie. Young legislator Harry Burn was from the “anti” county of McMinn and he wore a red rose. But, it seems young Burn got a letter from his mother Febb Ensminger Burn who told her son to be a good boy and help put the “rat” in ratification and so on the second vote, he changed his vote, the amendment passed on this date in 1920, when the sun rose, women had gained the right to vote. Burn said, “I know that a mother’s advice is always safest for a boy to follow.” So, all you ladies out there should lift a glass to Febb….and hope the World Meteorological Organization doesn’t find out and call a hurricane Febb.

If you were in the White House of Lucy Hayes, the glass you lifted would have been the unleaded version. President Rutherford B. Hayes was no teetotaler but his administration followed that of President Grant whose White House had been assumed to be flowing with Whiskey. Hayes wanted to distance himself from the reputed Whiskey-soaked, scandal-ridden Grant and he had a wife, Lucy, who was big into the temperance movement. So, On This date in 1877, booze was banned at the White House and Lucy became known as “Lemonade Lucy.” The hired help though thought that they had put one over on the President and his wife.

See the chef made a “Roman Punch” part of the daily meal with a hollowed out orange filled with some sherbet-like concoction. Many a Senator was quite relieved when the tasted the brew because they were convinced it was filled with as much rum it could possibly hold. But, the president had the last laugh. Hayes wrote in his diary that he had ordered that the staff fill the punch “strongly with the same flavor that is found in Jamaica rum…There was not a drop of spirits in them!” Yes, indeed….quite the clever man that Rutherford B. Hayes. Too bad he wasn’t as clever in doing his job. After one term, the sitting president was unable to secure the nomination from his own party, losing out to eventual Republican President James Garfield. But, it’s a lesson to the kids…don’t ever think you can pull one over on the old man!