Without William H. Seward, Sarah Palin May Have Been Unknown to the World October 18, 2010

Want To See the $7.2 Million Dollar Check For Alaska Purchase?

Gov. Palin Owes Career To William H Seward?

Governor Palin’s Path is Set: Had it not been for the dogged determination of Secretary of State William H. Seward, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin may not have been the Vice-Presidential nominee of the Republican Party in 2008.  It was not an easy task, but, ultimately, Seward got Congress to simply write a big’ol check to the Russians and America had gained the final frontier.

In the 19th Century, Russia laid claim to the Alaskan territory with the establishment of the fur-trading Russian-American Company. The company was quite profitable for awhile but by the 1860′s, business wasn’t too good. In order for the company to remain viable, the Tsar would have to heavily subsidize operations.  But, only a few hundred Russians had emigrated to Alaska and the Russians had no way of defending the vast region. The Tsar and his ministers thought it was in their best interest to sell the land to the Americans rather than lose it in battle to one of the world powers, like Great Britain.

Thanks Bill! Monty Hall Would Be Proud!

In 1867. Secretary of State William H. Seward began negotiations to acquire the territory. Now, Seward was a hold-over from the Lincoln administration and was serving under President Andrew Johnson at the time. Johnson became quite unpopular due to his Reconstruction policies and some in the public derisively called the plan “Seward’s Folly”, “Seward’s Ice Box” or “Andrew Johnson’s Polar Bear Garden.” There were also facticious calls for the opening of the “Polar Bear Bureau” and the establishment of the “Superintendent of Walruses.” At the time, it was seen as a vast, empty wilderness opposed by many public figures such as Horace Greeley. But, some histories now suggest that most of the general public thought it was a shrewd deal. Political opponents in Congress who were trying to figure out how to impeach Johnson delayed approval of the $7.2 million needed to complete the deal.  Perhaps because public opposition wasn’t as great as has been advertised because Congress ratified the deal on April 9, 1867, though it did by just one vote.   The Senate’s approval opened the door for the United States to acquire an area about twice the size of Texas for the purchase price of $7.2 million, or about 2 cents an acre. Funny thing is, Congress didn’t appropriate the money until July 1868.  I’m guessing that, while the Senate is charged with approving treaties, the House of Representatives has a say in the approval of funding and I suspect that opponents in the House hoped to halt the purchase by keeping the purse strings tight.  If you notice the check above is dated August 1868 so there must have been some politicking and horse trading. Guess the Tsar didn’t care too much about the slow payment but I suppose any Americans  who were in Alaska before the check cleared could have been considered considered to be squatters. 

Bill Had a Great Catch for the US

In any event, the deal got done and the public remained generally non-plussed about the whole thing until gold was discovered in 1896 the territory’s Klondike region and suddenly the acquisition wasn’t such a folly after all. As time went on, the deal became to be on par with buying Manhattan for $24.  Today, 20% of America’s oil is found in Alaska and about half of the seafood. It also produces a huge amount of natural gas, timber and other natural resources.   Pokiness seems to be part of Alaska’s history because, after Congress delayed cutting the check, it took until 1912 to establish the Alaska Territory.  And statehood wasn’t exactly around the corner from there.

Andrew Johnson's Polar Bear Swimming Pool?

Today, it has produced “Sarah Barracuda”, the first female Republican nominee for Vice-President. Alaska became a state in 1959 which seems kinda odd when one considers that California gained statehood very shortly after it’s gold rush broke out.  Alaska is too big for just one day of recognition so there are two state holidays marking its heritage. One is “Seward’s Day” which is in March every year to mark the day that William Seward signed the treaty (Mar 30, 1867) and the other is “Alaska Day,” which commemorates this date in History when on October 18, 1867, the United States formally took possession of the 586, 412 square miles of Alaska. If this Global Warming caper goes the way that Mr. Gore suggests, then “Andrew Johnson’s Polar Bear Garden” will have to find a new name…perhaps “Andrew Johnson’s Polar Bear Swimming Pool” would be more appropriate.

Weather Bottom Line:   We need rain.  Count yourself lucky if you get it this week. Officially, Louisville has gotten .56 inches of rain since Sept 1.  Now, climatologically, Sept and Oct are the driest month in Louisville but his is a bit out of hand.  A boundary snuck through yesterday but its not too far to the south.  The previous thinking was that a wave of energy would run along that front and bring us some light rain on Tuesday.  But, the front appears to be inching farther south so when the wave goes by, the rain will be mainly in Tennessee.  That’s okay because they could use it too but…anyway, maybe a slight shot on Monday night or Tuesday but probably only if you do a rain dance in your backyard.  Cooler air filters in beginning Tuesday and we will at least be pleasant with highs in the upper 60′s Tuesday and lower 70′s the rest of the week.

Abraham Lincolns Final Day; “Now He Belongs To the Ages.” April 14, 2010

145 Years Ago Today, the Course of the Nation Was Changed

Ward Hill Lamon Heard Lincoln Tell of his dream shortly before the President's Assassination

On This Date in History:  Historian Stephen B. Oates wrote in With Malice Toward None: A Life of Abraham Lincoln that one night in the second week of April 1865,  President Lincoln spoke with his wife Mary and long time friend Ward Hill Lamon that he had ghostly dreams.  Lincoln told Mary Todd and Lamon that his most recent dream resulted in his waking and going to his bible where his search led him consistently to passages regarding dreams, supernatural visitations and visions.  When Mary asked what that particular dream was about, Oates describes Lincoln with a sad and serious voice responding:

Lincoln Dreamed of His Own Death in the White House

Lincoln's Dream Came True

“There seemed to be a death-like stillness about me.  Then I heard subdued sobs, as if a number of people were weeping.  I thought I left my bed and wandered downstairs.  There the silence was broken by the same pitiful sobbing, but he mourners were invisible.  I went from room to room; no living person was in sight, but the same mournful sounds of distress met me as I passed along.  It was light in all the rooms; every object was familiar to me; but where were all the people who were grieving as if their hearts would break?  I was puzzled and alarmed.  What could be the meaning of all this?  Determined to find the cause of a state of things so mysterious and shocking, I kept on until I arrived at the East Room, which I entered.  There I met with a sickening surprise.  Before me was a catafalque, on which rested a corpse wrapped in funeral vestiments.  Around it were stationed soldiers who were acting as guards; and there was a throng of people, some gazing mournfully upon the corpse, whose face was covered, others weeping pitifully.  ‘Who is dead in the White House?’ I demanded of one of the soldiers.  ‘The President.’ was his answer; ‘he was killed by an assassin!’  Then came a loud burst of grief from the crowd.”

Lincoln Was Chipper On April 14th After What He Thought Was a Good Dream

Mary Todd said the story was “horrid” and wished she had never asked to hear about the dream.  Lamon said that, as Lincoln spoke, he was pale, “grave and gloomy.”  But, when the President awoke on the morning of April 14, 1865 he had slept quite well.  He had no concerns regarding reconstruction and no bad dreams.  Instead, he had a dream that he had frequently had on the eve of good news.  He had the same dream prior to Union victories at Antietan, Gettysburg and Vicksburg.  So, when he awoke from the dream in which he was on a ship moving quickly toward a distant shore, he surmised that the day must be filled with good news.  After all, it was Good Friday.  However, I wonder if he recalled that “Good Friday” gained the moniker because it was the date that commemorates the death of Jesus of Nazareth.

Lincoln Funeral Train in Philadelphia

That Good Friday in Washington D. C. the weather began under sunny and pleasant conditions.  The President and First Lady planned on taking care of some executive business and then attending a performance of Our American Cousin, a comedy that was scheduled for the stage at Ford’s Theatre.  During a cabinet meeting at 11AM, Lincoln asked, Lt. General Ulysses S. Grant if he and his wife Julia would like to accompany the Lincolns to the theatre.  Grant replied to this verbal invitation in the affirmative if they were in town but, if he was able to attend to his duties, that they were hoping to catch a train that night to visit their children who were then in Burlington, New Jersey.  Grant was able to finish his work before the evening train left Washington on the 14th and so he sent word to the President that he and his wife would not be able to attend. Mrs. Lincoln was quite fond of Miss Clara Harris and so, after several people besides the Grants had declined the invitation, Major Henry Rathbone and his fiancee, Miss Harris, accepted the invitation.  It’s not clear whether or not assassin John Wilkes Booth knew that Grant was not in the box with Lincoln but, when he shot the President in the head, he also stabbed Major Rathbone in the head and neck.  The young major apparently had a bright political future but his life resulted in a tragic scenario.  Rathbone went on to marry Harris and they had 3 children.  But, his mental health had deteriorated with speculation being he never overcame the trauma of the assassination.  Rathbone murdered his wife in 1883 and tried to kill himself but doctors saved his life.  He lived out the rest of his life in an insane asylum.  

Lincoln Funeral Train Route To Springfield, IL

The final letter known to have been written by Abraham Lincoln was a reply to James H. Van Allen, who had written Lincoln to guard against assassination.  The president assured Van Allen, “I intend to adopt the advice of my friends and use due precaution…I thaink you for the assurance you give me that I shall be supported by conservative men like yourself, in the efforts I may make to restore the Union, so as to make it, to use your language, a Union of hearts and hands as well as states.  Yours truly, A. Lincoln.”    Just prior to his leaving the White House for Ford’s Theatre, Lincoln concluded a meeting he had with George Ashmun, who had come seeking a political appointment.  The final words written by Abraham Lincoln was on a pass of admission for Mr. Ashmun that read, “Allow Mr. Asmum and friend to come in at 9 AM to-morrow.  A. Lincoln.”  By 9AM April 15, 1865, Abraham Lincoln was dead.

Derringer Used By Booth Confirmed As Such in 20th Century by FBI

The President of the United States sat with his wife, Major Rathbone and Clara Harris in a special box at Ford’s Theatre watching the popular comedy Our American Cousin. The presidential party had but one body guard.  John Frederick Parker was assigned to guard the door.  He was there when the president arrived around 9PM but he disappeared following the intermission.  It is thought that he joined some other men in the saloon and then found a seat to see the play.  Incredibly, Lincoln’s missing body guard remained on the security staff after the events at Ford’s Theatre.  On this date in 1865, John Wilkes Booth , at about 10:15 PM, fired a single shot .41 caliber derringer into the back of the head President Abraham Lincoln.  Booth escaped by leaping to the stage but caught a spur in the bunting and he broke his leg when he hit the stage.  It is said that he shouted out, “Sic Semprer Tyrannus” which means “death to tyrants” in Latin.  The President was taken across the street to 453 Tenth Street at the home of William Petersen.  They placed him in the bed of a room rented by boarder William Clark.  Throughout the night, family and friends gathered around the President as he breathed laboriously but never regained consciousness.  At 7:22 AM, Abraham Lincoln breathed his last and Secretary of War Edwin M. Stanton said, “Now he belongs to the ages.”

Abraham Lincoln Shot 10:15 PM April 14, 1865; Died 7:22 AM April 15, 1865-He Belongs To the Ages

Ulysses S. Grant learned of the assassination in Philadelphia.  At the time, he was told that Secretary of State William H. Seward had also been murdered and it was likely Vice-President Andrew Johnson was also dead.  Naturally, with the potential decaptitation of the government, the commander of the Union Army was asked to return to Washington immediately.  Grant wrote in The Personal Memoirs of Ulysses S. Grant that it was impossible for him to describe his feelings.  He said of Lincoln, “I knew his goodness of heart, his generosity, his yielding disposition, his desire to have everybody happy, and above all his desire to see all the people of the United States enter again upon the full priviliges of citizenship with equality among all.”    Since he was near his final destination, he accompanied his wife to Burlington and then immediately took a special train back to the nation’s capital.  He said upon his return he noticed the stark contrast of the crowds in Washington that had been so joyous when he left had “turned to grief.”  Grant speculated that the South would have been saved much hardship had Lincoln lived and that  “Mr. Lincoln’s assassination was particularly unfortunate for the entire nation.”

Booth Wanted Poster

Historian William J. Cooper, Jr says in Jefferson Davis, American that Confederate President Jefferson Davis, like Grant,  felt great regret upon hearing of the death of President Lincoln.  Davis felt that the South would have been dealt with much more leniently and expected no special considerations for himself or his Confederate colleagues from the new Democrat President Andrew Johnson.  Davis was right as the Johnson administration accused Davis as complicity in planning Lincoln’s assassination.  He issued a proclamation calling for the arrest of Davis and a reward of $100,000 in gold.  Later, during the trial of Booth’s co-conspirators, it was determined that no evidence existed to suggest any involvement by Davis or other high ranking Confederate officials.  The conclusion reached was the death of Abraham Lincoln was planned and executed by a small group of people led by John Wilkes Booth.  Booth had been a famous actor, well known across the nation. He  thought that he would be thought of as a hero.  Instead, his actions have placed him at the top of the list of American villains with whom no one wishes to acknoeledge any family ties or association.

Weather Bottom Line:  Weather still looks on line.  Warm and nice through the rest of the week. High pressure moves off to the east and a little cold front comes through late Friday bringing perhaps some showers or even a t’storm.  Thunder Over Louisville Weekend looks good still with highs on Saturday in the mid to upper 60′s.

Transatlantic Cable Led To Bargain AKA The Alaska Purchase March 30, 2010

How Did the Transatlantic Cable Lead to the Purchase of Alaska?

Great Eastern Steamship Dwarfed All Other Ships of the Day

On This Date in History:  In Antebellum America of  the mid 19th Century, a message could be sent from New Orleans to Maine in a matter of minutes.  But,  that same message might take two weeks to get to London as it was unthinkable to be able to lay a cable all the way across the Atlantic Ocean.  Unthinkable to everyone but Cyrus Field.  Field was a paper merchant who had been so successful in business that he was able to retire by age 34 when he came up with a plan to lay a transatlantic cable.   He thought that it wasn’t quite a difficult as it sounded because he figured that the cable could rest on an underwater plateau between Newfoundland and Ireland.  He was so certain of success, that in 1856 he formed the Atlantic Telegraph Company after meeting a Canadian from Newfoundland looking for investors for his nearly bankrupt telegraph concern.  Even though he had his own ideas, well-meaning citizens offered their own suggestions.  One suggested have floating call boxes so that passing ships could stop and send a message.  Another suggested suspending a cable by underwater balloons. 

Some Russians Were Rather Fond of Alaska

Aside from the hair-brained ideas, even the more rational ones faced some issues.  The cable weighed one ton per mile yet snapped quite easily in the rolling seas.  The North Atlantic is not exactly the calmest weather in the world so there were constant delays.  To help battle the elements and also haul the giant and heavy cable, Fields called on the service of the world’s biggest ship.  The Great Eastern steamship, at 32,000 tons was five times bigger than the next biggest ship.   After two years, a cable was finally laid and the continents were connected.  The great success didn’t last though because after an inaugural message from Queen Victoria to President James Buchanan, the line went dead.  Perry McDonough Collins saw Fields misfortune as an opportunity.  See, Collins had another idea.  He went to Western Union with the proposal to run a cable under the Bering Strait and then across Siberia to Europe.  Work was begun in Alaska but Fields had not given up on the oceanic route.  It took 12 years of effort and failure but on July 27, 1866 the Transatlantic Cable finally reached Newfoundland and this time it worked.  Well, that was the end of the Siberian route but the poor guys working on it didn’t learn they were out of job for a year due to….slow communications.

Collins' Men Didn't Know the Job Was Terminated For a Whole Year

Again, misfortune became a catalyst for unforseen success.  In order to work on his project, Collins had secure diplomatic connections fromboth Russia and the United States.  The efforts involved Secretary of State William H. Seward who, while helping Abraham Lincoln manage the Civil War, had also been involved in Collins Siberian scheme as well as the plans of Field.  While the  Bering Strait cable did not come about, conversations between the US and Russia continued.  Russia had established a presence in Alaska in the early 18th century but had been trying to unload it on the United States since around the time that Field had started his Transatlantic Cable project.  But, President Buchanan had his hands  full with a country heading to Civil War, though I’m not exactly sure what Buchanan was doing because he certainly had not done much to head off that great conflict. 

Cartoon Depicting "Andy" Johnson and "Billy" Seward Trying to Sell Alaska Ice Block to Congress

Seward really liked the idea of grabbing Alaska but the many other Americans weren’t too keen on the idea.  The nation was in debt and trying to rebuild the South after the war.  Alaska was wilderness and in a very inhospitable environment.  Many people thought that the idea was so idiotic that the plan was called “Icebergia,” “Walrussia,”  ”Seward’s Ice Box” and, most famously, ”Seward’s Folly.”  Nevertheless, on this date in 1867, William H. Seward turned his folly into reality when Russia agreed to sell Alaska to the United States for $7.2 million.  That is less than half of what was paid for Louisiana 64 years earlier.  It came out to about 2 cents per acre.   Seward had no way of knowing it, but the folly turned into literally a gold mine in just 20 years.  Gold was discovered in the 1890′s and the nations wealth increased.  Now, Alaska has oil.  The US has reaped hundreds of millions of dollars in royalties from oil produced on federal land and offshore waters of Alaska.  Then there is also the rich fishing industry in the dangerous but fruitful Alaskan waters. 

Congress Finally Forked Over the Money in August 1868

In the end what originally was a failed venture to connect North America to Europe resulted in the United States acquiring territory that initially increased it’s size by 20%.  The nation not only gained access to the obvious timber natural resources and fishing rights, but unwittingly also gained enormous access to gold.  Then when huge oil fields were discovered and the ability to bring it to market was developed, the benefit of Seward’s Folly became astronomical.  It’s hard to say which was the better deal: The Louisiana Purchase or the Alaskan Purchase.  But, one thing’s for certain, we could probably use another folly today that would bring such a huge return on investment.  But, it almost didnt’ happen.  See…Congress was leary.  The Senate has the power to approve treaties and it voted to ratify the treaty by a 37 to 2 majority.  But, the House of Representatives controls the purse strings and opponents of Seward’s Ice Box threatened to not provide the funds for the purchase.  It took a year but the Alaska Purchase Treaty was ultimately funded a year after the treaty was signed with a 113 to 48 vote.

Great Weather Ahead

Weather Bottom Line:  Enjoy the rest of the week as we move to 80 or so by Thursday and Friday.  It will be interesting to see how a weekend frontal system unfolds.  The SPC has a storm risk in Texas but I’m a bit curious about Saturday evening here.  Might be interesting but the dynamics might not come together.  Forget about it for now. Just enjoy the week.

How a Master Politician Leads from the White House August 20, 2009

Master Politician in the White House

Greeley: Bad Timing-Nice Chin Whiskers?

On this date in History:  This little tale has to do with politicians doing their job well and in this case, by perhaps the greatest politician in US history.  The Civil War had been blowing and going since the first shots were fired at Fort Sumnter in April 1861.  From the outset, there were a number of abolitionists in the North who wanted President Lincoln to openly claim that the war was about slavery.  In a practical sense, it was, but the president did not want to publically say so and instead said the aim of the war was to maintain the Union.  But, that wasn’t enough for New York Tribune publisher Horace Greeley.

Greeley had started the Tribune in 1841 as a platform for his reformist ideas.  He advocated westward expansion, temperance,  support for the labor movement and opposition to land monopoly and capital punishment.  If you think about it, in some form or another, all of these “reforms” became part of the national landscape, though capital punishment has returned over the last 30 years to become more common again with some restraint.  Greeley actually got elected to Congress for a short time and one of his ideas eventually became the Homestead Act in 1862.  But, it was in that year that Greeley was really chomping at the bit for the president to take action.  On this date in 1862, Greeley wrote a sharp editorial in his newspaper that called on the president to declare free all slaves in the border states of Kentucky, Maryland, Missouri and Delware.  Lincoln had resisted such calls in the past because he wanted to make sure those 4 slave states that featured the “peculiar institution” remained with the Union.  He needed them as they all were in strategic locations.  Missouri was needed to control the Mississippi.  Kentucky was needed to control the Ohio.  If Delaware and Maryland turned, then Washington DC would be surrounded. 

Lincoln's Response to Greeley

Now, Congress had passed the Confiscation Act of 1861 and of 1862.  This allowed the Union Army to seize Confederate property as part of the war effort.  This included slaves.  But Union commanders were reluctant to do so and Lincoln did nothing to encourage them to do so.  Now remember, the “liberal” or reform party of the time was the Republican Party and Greeley had been an organizer from the outset.  He could not understand how a Union victory could come about without destroying slavery and said, “the Union Cause has suffered from a mistaken deference to Rebel slavery.”  Lincoln responded immediately in a letter to the New York Times, referencing Greeley’s article written on the 19th, but published on the 20th.  If it had been the 20th century, Abe would have no doubt hit the tube.  Even then, Lincoln knew the adage that an attack unanswered is an attack capable of persuading.

Final Version of Emancipation Proclamation

Now, it was true that Lincoln had never publically indicated any preference for Greeley’s views.  But, he had abhored slavery since he was a young man and publically stated his opposition to the practice on numerous occasions.  Nevertheless, he knew it was delecate matter and so he waited.  Greeley could have saved his ink because just a month after Greeley’s thunderous editorial, because a month before, Abraham Lincoln had read a preliminary version of the Emancipation Proclamation to Secretary of State William H. Seward and Secretary of the Navy Gideon Welles.  After a few changes, Lincoln then waited for a Union victory.  It wasn’t a  great victory but the Battle of Antiem was good enough.  Following that dubious victory, Lincoln presented his preliminary version of the proclamation that announced that all slaves held in rebellious states to be forever free.  Now, that probably didn’t suit Greeley because it left the men, women and children in servitude in the 4 northern states.  But, Lincoln knew that as a practical matter, the eradication of slavery as a war measure in the Confederacy necessarily meant that, after the war, slavery would end elsewhere.  He had always argued that he did not have the Consitutional authority to get rid of slavery in the states.  But, as Commander in Chief, he could.  So, at the right time, he took what he could get when the public would support him as a way to win the war.  The final version of the Emancipation Proclamation took effect January 1, 1863.   Afterward, there was no way after a bloody Civil War and all but four states free that those 4 states could remain as a slave culture.  Greeley, while noble in cause, had no ability in the art of politics and is probably why President Lincoln goes down in history as one of America’s greatest statesman while Greeley’s time in Congress didn’t last long and is little remembered.

Keep this in mind whenyou hear of politicians taking what they can get today with an eye for the future when they think that they can get the whole pie. Also, be wary of those who try to compare themselves to the master politician from Illinois, Abraham Lincoln.

SPC Severe Weather Outlook Thu 8am to Fri 8am

SPC Tornado Probability Thu 8am to Fri 8am

Weather Bottom Line:  We had some shower activity in the morning hours and conventional wisdom would suggest that this will suppress rain chances until the atmosphere has a chance to become more unstable.  Afternoon heating should do the trick.   The 6Z model runs have come more into agreement and follow pretty much what I had suggested previously which was we’d end up somewhere in between the rather menacing outlook by previous GFS runs and the pedestrian solution by the earlier NAM.  It looks like prime time for the risk of strong  t’storms will be in the early evening…say 5pm to 8pm.  The severe parameters have come down on the GFS and gone up on the NAM with the NAM actually having a SWEAT index higher than the GFS, but its not totally clear because the GFS does not have a specific set of data for the 6pm time..it doesn’t come out hourly so it’s possible that indeed the SWEAT index of the GFS is as high or higher than the NAM but you can’t tell because its in between the reporting times.  Anyway, look for t’storms this

Severe Wind Probability Thu 8am to Fri 8am

afternoon, some could be strong. The biggest threat of stronger winds and potential tornadic activity is northeast of Louisville toward the Great Lakes in assocation with the parent low.  I think this scenario bodes well for the east coast and the track of Hurricane Bill.  The front is not quite as pokey as previous suggestions and therefore should make it the coast in time to keep Bill away.  The models also more or less agree on an inch or so of rain but the GFS seems more interested in having some over-running rain into Friday morning and that makes some sense.  I would  think rain totals of something over an inch would probably be realistic.  Afterward, this strong trof will still lower temperatures through the weekend below seasonal averages with highs around 80 with some folks not getting out of the 70′s on Saturday and maybe Sunday.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
 

Severe Hail Probability Thu 8am to Fri 8am

  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0717 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009
  
   VALID 201300Z – 211200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS RED RIVER/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
   INTO THE NORTHEAST…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   ANOTHER DIFFICULT SEVERE TSTM FORECAST TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF VERY
   MOIST AIR REMAINS ESTABLISHED FROM THE SRN PLAINS/DEEP SOUTH INTO
   THE NORTHEAST…WHICH WILL BE OVERSPREAD BY SEASONABLY STRONG
   MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.  A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES AND
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE WIND SHIFTS/FRONTS WILL LIKEWISE ROTATE ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/NERN U.S. AND CONCENTRATE AREAS OF STRONG/SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
  
   …MID SOUTH/OH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE ERN LAKES/MID ATLANTIC…
   APPEARS IMPULSE SUPPORTING BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS IND
   EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE ENEWD THROUGH THE DAY…WITH
   PRECEEDING AIRMASS BECOMING MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THE
    EARLY AFTERNOON.  WITH MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENING THROUGH
   THE DAY…DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
   SMALL LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY TO MID
   EVENING.  PRIMARY NEGATIVE ACROSS THIS REGION IS FORECAST WEAK LAPSE
   RATES WHICH WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER…FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARAMETERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE AND HAVE ADJUSTED PROBABILITIES/SLGT RISK EWD ACCORDINGLY
   NEWD TOWARDS SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS NY THIS
   AFTERNOON.
  
   FARTHER SW…SVR RISK REMAINS MORE CONDITIONAL ON RECOVERY OF
   AIRMASS AHEAD OF SSEWD MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW INTO THE
   MID-SOUTH/MID MS RIVER VALLEY. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
   REDEVELOPMENT…WHILE NAM/HIGH-RES WRF SUGGEST LESS COVERAGE OF TSTM
   ACTIVITY LATER TODAY.  SHEAR OVER THIS REGION WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT
   FOR ORGANIZATION OF STRONG STORMS…AND WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN SLGT
   RISK AS ANY ENSUING DEVELOPMENT WOULD SUSTAIN A RISK OF WIND
   DAMAGE/ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO THE EVENING.
  
   …SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER…
   EXTENSIVE AREA OF TSTMS HAS PERSISTED MAINLY NORTH OF A SURGING
   SURFACE OUTFLOW EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH INTO
   CENTRAL OK.  APPEARS AN ISOLATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
   WINDS REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
   MORNING OVER OK INTO CENTRAL AR.  WHAT DEVELOPS LATER TODAY…AND
   WHERE…REMAINS A QUESTION ATTM.  THE FARTHER SOUTH THE SURFACE
   OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE FRONT SETTLES…THE WEAKER THE LARGE SCALE WLY
   FLOW WILL BE.  ALTHOUGH A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO
   TX…WEAK SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEMPER OVERALL
   ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.  REGARDLESS…THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FROM WEAKLY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINES MAY WARRANT
   MAINTAINING CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION.
  
   …UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY…
   DESPITE BROAD AREA OF WNWLY WINDS THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE AND
   RESULTANT WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE…MODELS GENERATE MARGINAL
   SBCAPE AND SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION UNDER MID LEVEL POCKET THIS
   AFTERNOON.  APPEARS LOW PROBABILITIES OF HAIL/WIND NEAR SEVERE
   LEVELS IS WARRANTED WITH THE STRONGER CORES THIS AFTERNOON.
  
   ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 08/20/2009

Turn Out the Lights, Turn Up the Heat and Viva Alaska! October 18, 2008

In the 30s on Saturday Night

Hope Your Heater Works: As expected we had a much cooler day than we’ve seen in quite some time. An upper low will work its way through overnight bringing some light showers and clouds but the showers will probably not be that signficant and will end shortly after sunrise. The clouds won’t stick around long thereafter and the sun will be dominant by Saturday afternoon but area highs won’t get out of the low 60′s. Saturday night, the mercury will fall to the 30′s area wide with some places in the low 30′s. Hope your heaters work and be careful if you haven’t used yours yet this year. Check it out prior to use. Then get ready for your bill. I had figured that my gas rate had increased by 39%. LG & E corrected me. They claim its 65%!! Apparently I missed an interim increase. Natural gas prices have fallen quite a bit since they adjusted the rates in July. Hopefully when they readjust in November, they will come back down because I don’t want to have heating bills this winter like I had a few years ago…nor do you.

Tropical Storm Omar Satellite Image 1018 0245Z

Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Track 1017 11pm

Tropical Storm Omar is useless but if you want to read about it, check out below. But, at least you can find it now on the satellite imagery and is certainly much better looking that it was. It is moving over much colder water and as it continues northeast it will run into frontal zones. In short, Omar’s days are numbered. I think its still going to be interesting to see if it eventually affects Europe in whatever shape or form it is in. Remember, the role of tropical cyclones in nature is to transport heat and moisture from the tropical regions to the polar regions. They are not trying to melt the polar ice caps, they are just doing what they are supposed to do and this year, in the Atlantic Basin, they have done a very good job with several storms making it into the northern latitudes.

Want To See the $7.2 Million Dollar Check For Alaska Purchase?

Gov. Palin Owes Career To William H Seward?

Governor Palin’s Path is Set: Had it not been for the dogged determination of Secretary of State William H. Seward, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin may be be the Vice-Presidential nominee of the Republican Party.

In the 19th Century, Russia laid claim to the Alaskan territory with the establishment of the fur-trading Russian-American Company. The company was quite profitable for awhile but by the 1860′s, business wasn’t too good. In order for the company to remain viable, the Tsar would have to heavily subsidize operations. Only a few hundred Russians had emigrated to Alaska and the Russians had no way of defending the vast region. The Tsar and his ministers thought it was in their best interest to sell the land to the Americans rather than lose it in battle to one of the world powers, like Great Britain.

Thanks Bill! Monty Hall Would Be Proud!

In 1867. Secretary of State William Seward began negotiations to acquire the territory. Now, Seward was a hold-over from the Lincoln administration and was serving under President Andrew Johnson at the time. Johnson became quite unpopular due to his Reconstruction policies and some in the public derisively called the plan “Seward’s Folly”, “Seward’s Ice Box” or “Andrew Johnson’s Polar Bear Garden.” There were also facticious calls for the opening of the “Polar Bear Bureau” and the establishment of the “Superintendent of Walruses.” At the time, it was seen as a vast, empty wilderness. But, some histories now suggest that most of the general public thought it was a shrewd deal. Political opponents in Congress who were trying to figure out how to impeach Johnson delayed approval of the $7.2 million needed to complete the deal. But, perhaps because public opposition wasn’t as great as has been advertised, Congress ratified the deal on April 9, 1867 to acquire an area about twice the size of Texas being purchased for $7.2 million, or about 2 cents an acre. Funny thing is, Congress didn’t appropriate the money until July 1868. If you notice the Check above is dated August 1868. Guess the Tsar didn’t care too much about the slow payment but I suppose any Americans in Alaska before the check cleared could be considered to be squatters. Anyway, the public

Bill Had a Great Catch for the US

remained generally non-plussed about the deal until gold was discovered in 1896 and suddenly the acquisition wasn’t such a folly after all. As time went on, the deal became to be on par with buying Manhattan for $24.

Today, 25% of America’s oil comes from Alaska and about half of the seafood. It also produces a huge amount of natural gas, timber and other natural resources. Today, it has produced “Sarah Barracuda”, the first female Republican nominee for Vice-President. Alaska became a state in 1959 and there are two state

Andrew Johnson's Polar Bear Swimming Pool?

holidays marking its heritage. One is “Seward’s Day” which is in March every year to mark the day that William Seward signed the treaty (Mar 30, 1867) and the other is on October 18, which commemorates This date in History when on October 18, 1867, the United States formally took possession of the 586, 412 square miles of Alaska. If this Global Warming caper goes the way that Mr. Gore suggests, then “Andrew Johnson’s Polar Bear Garden” will have to find a new name…perhaps “Andrew Johnson’s Polar Bear Swimming Pool” would be more appropriate.

A No Doubt About It Genius

Turn Out the Lights For Edison

Turn out the Lights: On this date in 1931, perhaps the greatest single inventor in the history of the world died. Thomas Alva Edison died in West Orange, New Jersey at the age of 84. Upon his death, President Hoover asked all americans to turn out the lights for one minute. He had considered having all power plants across the nation be shut down but his advisors reminded him that electricity had become such a part of the American fabric that doing so would place many people at extreme risk. So, Hoover took the Republican approach of asking for a volunteer effort. Too bad he didn’t take a Republican view of taxes as, in the wake of the stock market crash, Hoover raised taxes and most economic historians point to his raising of taxes and tariffs that led to the Great Depression, not the stock market crash….anyway….

Thomas Edison’s 1093 US patents is a record that will probably never be even remotely challenged. There are a couple of links of Edison to Louisville. For a brief period of time when he was young, Edison lived in a small house in Louisville near Butchertown. (you can visit the home) One of his most famous inventions was the first practical incandescent light

Benefactor to the World

bulb in 1879. In 1883, the Southern Exposition opened in Louisville with a display of 20,000 incandescent lights making it the largest display in this history of the world at that time. The number of lights in Louisville at that time was more than the entire city of New York. Please take the time to READ THIS EDISON BIOGRAPHY as it does a far better justice than I could do to bring to the attention one of the most influential people in the history of the United States, and even the world, not just in the 19th and 20th century and far beyond. While it was not patented, Edison actually invented the modern method of invention…a footnote that is often lost in most history lessons.

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008

1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH OMAR HAS DECREASED AGAIN THIS EVENING…WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION IN A RAGGED BAND WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER…AN AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 20Z SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS A DEEP-LAYER WARM CORE…WHICH SSM/I IMAGERY SHOWS IS SURROUNDED BY MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY/COOL AIR. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 22Z SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE WINDS FROM THE EARLIER OVERPASS…WITH NO RELIABLE-LOOKING VECTORS SHOWING WINDS OF MORE THAN 45 TO 50 KT. AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 20Z WERE 55 TO 60 KT…WHILE REGULAR SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE TROPICAL 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SUBTROPICAL 35-40 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES…AND THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS. THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA. OMAR HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/14. IN THE SHORT TERM…OMAR SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE FIRST 48 HR OF THE FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE. AFTER 48 HR…THE GFS… ECMWF…UKMET..AND HWRF SHOW OMAR BEING ABSORBED INTO A BAROCLINIC LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC…THIS AFTER OMAR TURNS MORE NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. THE NOGAPS…THE BAMD…THE BAMM…AND THE LBAR FORECAST OMAR TO TURN EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/HWRF SOLUTION…CALLING FOR OMAR TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 72 HR. HOWEVER…OUT OF DEFERENCE TO THE OTHER MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST…THE NEW FORECAST IS NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THAT OF THOSE MODELS. OMAR IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 26C…AND IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 24 HR. WHILE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP CANNOT BE RULED OUT…THESE CONDITIONS INDICATE THE STORM SHOULD GENERALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OMAR SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 48-72 HR AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. IF THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/HWRF SCENARIO VERIFIES…OMAR WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE WARM FRONT OF THE ONCOMING BAROCLINIC LOW…WITH THE FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOWING LITTLE RE-INTENSIFICATION AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 48-96 HR PORTION OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 31.5N 52.8W 55 KT

12HR VT 18/1200Z 33.3N 51.1W 50 KT

24HR VT 19/0000Z 35.1N 48.7W 45 KT

36HR VT 19/1200Z 36.7N 46.2W 40 KT

48HR VT 20/0000Z 38.3N 43.2W 35 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 21/0000Z 39.5N 39.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 22/0000Z 42.0N 36.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 23/0000Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$ FORECASTER BEVEN