Questionable Government Spending Has Long History
February 27, 2010

Uncle Sam Has Funded Pork Barrels for Years

Uncle Sam Has Funded Pork Barrels for Years

1935 Texas Dust Storm, Proof That Droughts are Not New

1935 Texas Dust Storm, Proof That Droughts are Not New

On This Date in History: These days, every time there is a lack of rain in an area of the country, stories start surfacing about some who claim its an example of Global Warming. The truth is that droughts have happened throughout the history of time. It’s funny how when the Global Warming talk comes up, even more recent history is ignored. The Dust Bowl years represented a pretty long time frame of below average rainfall and in conjunction with poor farming techniques, caused a disaster and helped contribute to a long economic depression. So, these periods of dry weather over an extended period are not new. In fact, going back through time, mankind has tried to invent a way to make it rain. Even today, there is research going on in cloud seeding efforts to try and control the rain. The results have been inconclusive.

In the past year, we’ve seen the “stimulus bill” in which there was much criticism over spending on projects that have been labled “pork barrell.” This type of charge is not new and I wonder what the masses thought on this date in 1891, when the United States Department of Agriculture hired and funded a special agent. His job was to make it rain.

19th Century Rain Making Guns

19th Century Rain Making Guns

Now, there was a theory floating about that producing big noises in the sky would make it rain. It was called the “concussion method” and the idea was that gunpowder explosions in the sky would create rain. They called the process “air quakes.” The notion was brought forth by Edward Powers who in 1880 wrote that in wars, often when there was a heavy cannonade, significant rain soon followed. He said that the jarring of the air combined with smoke caused a reaction with “nuclei or mechanical retaining points.” He also suggested that the atmospheric pressure was affected by the concussion and the buoyancy of the gases and heat given off by the explosion forced a rising of the air which caused a disturbance. Somehow, he then deduced that the explosions created electricity and friction “producing polarization of the earth and sky…inducing…other conditions necessary for storm formation, electrical manifestation being a constant forerunner and concomitant of storms…” There were other theories of rain making but General Robert St. George Dyrenforth said he didn’t understand those but, as an old soldier, he too had observed copius amounts of rain following cannon battles. So that’s the one he went along with and got the backing of Illinois Senator Charles B. Farwell. Just like today, all you need to do is convince a politician that you deserve government money and bingo..into the budget you go. As I’ve pointed out many times on these here pages…what we see today is nothing new. I guess no one ever thought that maybe it would have rained whether there was a battle or not. Nope…it had to be the cannon fire! Never mind the times it did not rain after a battle…just like some ignore the droughts of the past today.

This Rain Making Lab Was on Rails
This Rain Making Lab Was on Rails

In 1890, Congress appropriated about $9,000 to test out the theory and hired Dyrenforth to do the deed. Experimentation began in 1891 at c Ranch in Andrews County near Midland, Texas. The experimentation continued throughout 1891 and Governor James Stephen Hogg of Texas was so excited he wrote a letter to Texas politician John Dix announcing his intent to observe the action. When Hogg found out that Dyrenforth had returned to Washington, he added a note at the bottom of the letter suggesting that the experiments continue in the Southwestern part of Texas, which they did through 1892 near San Antonio.

Chinese Used Rain Making Cannon at 2008 Olympics

Chinese Used Rain Making Cannon at 2008 Olympics

Well, Dyrenforth piled up enough munitions to start a small war. He fired cannons into the sky, attached explosive to kites and did anything else he could think of to send ripples through the atmosphere to create a cloud burst. Reportedly, one time it did rain. The rest of the time, he came up dry. One would think that over a long period of time more than once at least a rain shower would show up on its own, but apparently the General wasn’t that lucky. One editor reported that “he attacked front and rear, by the right and left flank. But the sky remained clear as the complexion of a Saxon maid.” Dyrenforth’s official job title at the Department of Agriculture was pluviculturist. That’s the governmental term for rainmaker. The people of Texas came up with their own title for him…General Dryhenceforth.

HPC Likes Idea of Some Snow from Tue eve to Wed Eve

Weather Bottom Line:  I told you that I wasn’t so enthused about a big warm up for the weekend and so far, so good.  We topped out at 34 on Saturday with all of those clouds coming in from the flow around the low that brought all of the snow to the Northeast.  That low was progged to hang around and with vort lobes rotating around, or little waves of low pressure, we’d get clouds and perhaps a little snow from time to time.  And, that is what happened. 

Note the slight trof to the west ahead of the rise in the pink line which represents the 5400 m thickness line

Now, there is a big fat low coming out of the Southwest,  in response to that low, the general long wave pattern will flutter.  The jetstream will lift up somewhat bringing the 5400m 500mb-1000mb thickness line north close to Louisville.  That is the general rule of thumb for freezing surface temperatures but that rule sorta gets thrown out to some degree when you get to the springtime.  So, on Sunday, our thicknesses increase to about 5370 m.  As this buckle in the jetstream occurs, the low in the Northeast gets dislodged and gets kicked out to sea.  While there are low clouds, the mid and upper levels clear out so afternoon sunshine should break up the low deck and we get sunshine.  Getting to 40 degrees will not be out of the question at all. 

GFS Tues Eve Shows Some Snow over Ohio Valley

That low will traverse along the northern Gulf Coast and so on Monday, as it passes by, the trof will fill back in behind us so we should start to get colder again by Monday afternoon so highs will probably stop somewhere in the upper 30′s.   Tuesday is a question.  I’m guessing that the low will not track inland too far and instead cross Florida from Tallahassee and exit back into the Atlantic near Savannah.  We will get clouds.  The GFS wants to throw out about an inch of snow over 36 hours Tuesday into Wednesday.  If that happens it won’t be too significant.  I suspect that we will see highs in the low to mid 30′s for the balance of the week.

May 1 Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast; Pay No Attention to What They Say
May 1, 2009

"Joe, Do Us Both a Favor and Keep Quiet"

"Joe, Do Us Both a Favor and Keep Quiet"

Oaks Day Severe Weather Outlook

Oaks Day Severe Weather Outlook

tightenbeltDon’t Listen To What I Say:  On Wednesday night, in a news conference, President Obama said that the Swine Flu situation was “a cause for deep concern, but not panic.”  Less than 12 hours later, Vice-President Joe Biden said on NBC’s Today Show that he would tell his family not to fly on airplanes or ride subways or any similar confined places.  Sounds like panic to me?  On April 25, President Obama asked federal employees to submit ideas to help him find ways to tighten the federal budget belt.  Just two days later, the White House dispatched Air Force One along with two F-16′s on a low level flight over New York City for a photo op.  The price tag to taxpayers was nearly $329,000.  I guess no one submitted the idea of not using Air Force One unnecessarily in an effort to tighten the old belt.  That’s because two days after the New York buzzing and terrorizing people in New York City who feared the low flying jumbo jet was another terrorist attack, the president took Air Force One to Arnold, Missouri to talk at a high school about his first 100 days. He then immediately flew back to Washington where he prepared for his evening press conference concerning his first 100 days.  No word on how much it cost for the round trip from DC to Arnold, but I’m sure they did it on the cheap to demonstrate how the White House is tightening its belt.

Manboobs?

Manboobs?

Meanwhile, perhaps Alex Rodriguez should get into politics.  He told Katie Couric that he never used steroids.  Then, a few months later he confessed to juicing up when he was with the Texas Rangers.  Now, the same reporter who smoked out A-Rod and forced him to fess up, has a new book coming out that claims the sources say A-Rod was using steroids all the way back in high school and in fact did use them with the Yankees.  Unless the book has some proof other than lots of sources, then A-Rod should go with the Flinstones Vitamins Story of Sammy Sosa.  Then again, it didn’t work for Sam so maybe it wouldn’t work for Alex either.

Derby Day Severe Weather Outlook

Derby Day Severe Weather Outlook

Friday 8 PM

Friday 8 PM

Kentucky Derby Forecast: (Click here for the most recent forecast) Here’s the bottom line.  We have a cold front that will move through late on Friday,  which is Oaks Day.  There was rain early Friday morning as a wave of energy rode along the frontal boundary.  I would think,along with clouds, will serve to help keep the atmosphere from getting too unstable.  But, there remains ample moisture and as the front moves through, rain will be prevalent again.  It is not out of the question to have some t’storms with the front and, if so, a few of the storms may be strong.  However, the fact that parameters will be dampened, it will mainly be a rain event.  Rain is indeed possible for the Oaks Race itself but we may get lucky and have it hold off until Friday night.  The track is wet.

 

Derby Day 8PM

Derby Day 8PM

On Derby Day, the front slips to the south which will put us in cooler air.  The threat for severe weather should remain to the south provided the front stays south.  The data suggests that enough high pressure will build in behind the boundary to keep it south in spite of small waves of energy running along the front providing for some overrunning rain in the area.  The timing of the wave is quite difficult if not impossible.  Its not like we have a big major feature.  These little guys are very difficult to really pinpoint but, all of the model data suggests off and on rain showers  on Saturday.  For handicappers…again…it comes down to how the track has drained regarding track conditions.  My guess is that it will be wet and somewhat muddy.  The folks at Churchill do a good job and the facilities I believe drains pretty efficiently.  Nevertheless, check the track conditions before placing your bets.  The model data only throws out about 3/4″ of rain for Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.  But, I’m not so sure that the models are not under doing it on Friday as the front will have abundant moisture to work with when it comes through and picks up that stuff.  But, as long as the front gets far enough south on Saturday as progged, then the rain on Saturday should be relatively light to moderate at best.  Temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper 50′s to low 60′s.  Below is the Storm Prediction Center Severe Outlook for Derby Day.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009

VALID 021200Z – 031200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO TN
VALLEY…

…SYNOPSIS…
A DEEP VORTEX ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SHIFT NNEWD THROUGH FAR
NRN QUEBEC TO JUST NORTH OF HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY…WHILE THE SRN
EXTENT OF THE ATTENDANT BROAD LONGWAVE EXTENDS EWD FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS /90-100 KT/
WILL EXTEND FROM NRN IL TO NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. MEANWHILE…MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A PACIFIC SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING SEWD THROUGH THE SWRN STATES AND REACHING THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEND TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS FROM NM INTO THE SRN PLAINS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 2…PRECEDING THE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
ACROSS THE SWRN STATES ON SATURDAY…AND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER OH
VALLEY BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE…A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE DELMARVA WSWWD THROUGH
KY TO ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER INTO ERN/SRN OK…AND THEN EXTEND MORE
SWWD THROUGH NRN TO WEST CENTRAL TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE
SLOWLY SWD ON SATURDAY…AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL VA WSWWD
THROUGH TN TO CENTRAL AR AND SERN OK. MODELS SUGGEST THE WRN EXTENT
OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER TX SHOULD MOVE SEWD AND SWD BECOMING ORIENTED
MORE NE-SW THROUGH CENTRAL TX AND THEN WWD FROM ABOUT 25 N JCT TO SW
TX.

…PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL TX INTO SRN OK…
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL RESIDE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING BENEATH
VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 C/KM/ WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG/ EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TX TO JUST S OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY. 50+ KT SWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS OK/N TX BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASING /35-50 KT/ THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SW/
CENTRAL TX INTO NRN TX SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
FROM SRN OK TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY TOWARD 00Z AS STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT SPREADS INTO THIS REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING SWRN STATES
TROUGH. THE STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL TX INTO SERN OK/NERN TX AS A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL SLY LLJ
EXTENDS INTO NRN/NERN TX.

…SERN OK/AR TO TN VALLEY…
SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND S OF THE SWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT FROM
SERN OK/AR TO THE TN VALLEY WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STRONGER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ IS
EXPECTED FROM SERN OK INTO CENTRAL/SRN AR WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE STEEPER THAN FARTHER E INTO THE TN VALLEY. 35-40 KT
WSWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO THE TN VALLEY/KY ON SATURDAY
BENEATH SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW IN OH VALLEY WILL
SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS/ATTENDANT WIND THREAT GIVEN NEARLY
UNI-DIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW.

…VA/NC…
A MOIST AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF VA/NC ON
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35 KT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VA… WEAK
INSTABILITY DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS. ISOLATED STORMS
PRODUCING LOCALIZED STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE…GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE
HEATING TAKES PLACE. IF GREATER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST IN LATER
MODELS…THEN PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN VA WOULD NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
SLIGHT RISK GIVEN PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR.

..PETERS.. 05/01/2009

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