When The President Tried to Change the Way Americans Spell August 27, 2010

Taking Aim at Mr. Webster

Andrew Carnegie's Legacy Lives in Today's Libraries

On This Date In History: Back in 1906, Andrew Carnegie thought that if English was made more simple, it could become the dominant language in the world.   In an effort to try and simplify the spelling and writing of English, he funded the Simplified Spelling Board which was made up of a group of intellectuals who would discuss the issue.  The Board had 26 members including Supreme Court Justice David Brewer, US Secretary of the Treasury Lyman Gage and Samuel Clemens aka Mark Twain.  The board determined that there many words that could easily be changed; such words like ”ghost” could be made simpler by dropping the silent “h.”  Words like “blessed” could be reconfigured as “blest” and certainly the “u” could be dropped in words such as “behaviour,” “colour” and “honour.”  They had enough of “enough” and decided that “enuf” would do just fine.   The board did not want to overwhelm the nation so they proposed slowly introducing new word spellings with an initial list of 300 words that would be changed.  Some schools even adopted the suggests.  The go slow approach though got thwarted by a big stick.

Dan Quayle Decided To Be The Little Helper

President Teddy Roosevelt decided that me would be Vice-President Dan Quayle about 90 years before there was a Vice-President Dan Quayle.   If you recall, on June 15, 1992 then Vice-President Dan Quayle went to an elementary school in Trenton, New Jersey.  Quayle decided to help a kid with his spelling and added an “e” to the end of the word, potato.   That was effectively the end of Quayle’s political career and was no help in President Bush’s re-election bid.  It came as a big surprise to the eggheads on the Simplified Spelling Board when President Theodore Roosevelt unilaterly sent a letter to the US Government Printing Office on this date in 1906 that orderd the office to use the new spelling of the 300 words on the list.  President Roosevelt almost immediately got as much of a backlash as Vice President Quayle did nearly a century later.  Newspapers printed it as “Rozevult’s List.”  However,  Roosevelt managed to hold his seat in the White House.   The Rochester Post-Express pondered whether the president’s surname would spelled “Rusevelt” or “Buttinsky.”  The Baltimore Sun claim that the whole effort was simply “a scheme financed by Carnegie, backed by certain large publishing interests, and designed to carry out an immense project for jobbery in reprinting dictionaries and school books.”

The response to Roosevelt’s attempt to expand to power of the presidency to that of Grammarian in Chief was swift, broad and wicked. One columnist wrote that “nuthing escapes Mr. Rucevelt. No subject is tu hi fr him to takl, no tu lo for him tu notis.”  Congress wasn’t too certain that presidential powers extended to the spelling book and ordered the printer to pay no attention to the man with the big stick in the bully pulpit. So great was the public response, Mr. Roosevelt withdrew the order but later wrote that he glad “did the thing anyhow.”  I’m not certain exactly when the order was rescinded but Congress made certain that Presidential Power did not apply to the pen when on December 13, 1906 the US House of Representatives passed a resolution 142-24 that confirmed it would use traditional spelling found in most dictionaries and not the new and improved list of 300.  The US Supreme Court also vowed to not use the new spelling in spite of the involvement of Justice Brewer. 

Some Jobs Require Good Spellers

As many people who have read this blog can attest, either my spelling is lame or I can’t type.  But, spelling is very important and is seen by many as a reflection to the author’s competence or carelessness.  It would seem that words such as “kissed” did not become “kist” (except as part of the brand name “Sunkist”) but other words did gain a new set of letters.  It is not common in American to  spell “behavior’ or “color” with a “u.” 

The Good Old Washington "Natinals"

But, it would seem that text messengers have begun doing what Andrew Carnegie, Teddy Roosevelt and others tried to do over 100 years ago as many words are spelled in a shorter, simpler form in messaging.  One that comes to mind is “enuf.”   The effort at spelling reform has a long history and some people in the 21st century continue the effort at spelling reform.  It remains to be seen if those efforts or the texting craze continues and if the abbreviations eventually transform the way English is written.  In the meantime, make sure you learn to spell properly. Dan Quayle never won another election and neither did Theodore Roosevelt.

Weather Bottom Line:  The operative word for the last few days of August is dry.  High pressure will continue to dominate but will drift to the east.  Today will again have highs limited to the low to mid 80′s and the overnight low will be in the upper 50′s and low 60′s.  After that we get on the backside of the high with a return southerly flow.  We’ll be around 90 on Saturday afternoon and low 90′s for the balance of the week ahead.  Overnight lows will climb to the mid 60′s on Sunday morning and then upper 60′s thereafter.   My hydrangia is telling me that it needs water and your garden will be screaming the same, if it’s not already.

Man loses $127 million in Las Vegas; Monument to The General Opens to Public December 6, 2009

For Mr. Watanabe, I Guess There is a Problem

WSJ Says Mr. Watanabe has the biggest losing streak in Las Vegas History

As I freshman in college, Soviet Paul and I once lost about $300 playing some game called Pflugerville to a bunch of seniors in the fraternity.  It wasn’t until later that I found out that Pflugerville was a town north of Austin, Texas and the card game was an invention of a bunch of drunk fraternity brothers who had partied down there one night.  I felt like an idiot.  Still makes me mad.  But, I don’t feel so bad anymore.  Meet the man who lost $127 million at Las Vegas casinos in one year.   When you consider that would be just a little under $348,000 a day for every day of the calendar year, its really a pretty tough trick. Also consider this:  this one gambler’s losses resulted in 5.6% of the total revenues for the year.   So, if you are the casino, do you extend him a credit line?  Do you let him keep gambling?  The answer is yes on both accounts.  Terrance Watanabe of Omaha, Nebraska still owes $14.7 million to Harrah’s Entertainment from the credit line it extended.  He’s not forking it over either..

When you're sinking, its wiser to abandon ship than to go down with it

The reason is, according to the Wall Street Journal,  that the 52-year-old Watanabe has filed a lawsuit claiming that “casino staff routinely plied him with liquor and pain medication  as part of a systemic plan to keep him gambling.”  The advertising campaign says that “what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.  Watananbe could be the poster child for the idea that your money stays in Las Vegas too.  And that’s the way the Nevada authorities wants it to stay, so the Clark County Attorney General brought 4 felony counts against the Nebraskan for intent to defraud and steal.  That would mean that he ran up the credit line with the intention of not paying it back.  How can you prove intent to defraud or steal and intent to use the houses money to try and win back what you lost?  Sounds like a tough case.  Either way, with a losing streak like that, perhaps Watanabe should use the Detroit Lions or the New Jersey Nets logo as his company’s moniker.

Washington Preferred This Monument To Himself

Early Obelisk Design Following Equestrian Proposal

On This Date in History:   While he is relatively anonymous, Steve Sopher was born on this date in 1961.  While his friends and family think highly of him, there is no monument to commemorate his life on earth, though he might eventually construct one to himself.   Now, you know that you are a pretty big dog when plans for a monument to your life are begun while you are still alive. This was true of General George Washington. Even before he was the first president, A proposal was made by Congress in 1783 that a memorial be erected. However, the obleisk may even better signify Congressional ineptitude that has been the hallmark of the institution almost since its inception.

General Washington was quite pleased with the original design, which featured the avid horseman on the back of his favorite horse. Money was short though and Congress quibbled about the best way to pay tribute to the father of the country and so the project remained dormant for a time. In 1833, patience had grown short with the upper and lower chambers and so a group of citizens decided to take charge and form the Washington National Monument Society with a mission of raising the appropriate funds and oversee construction. But, even the wheels of the citizen bandwagon turn slow sometimes and a cornerstone was not laid until July 4, 1848. The ceremony was probably the best advertising that the effort had ever received as contributions poured in from banks, organizations and individuals as well as various states. Alabama came up with a commemorative plaque for the interior. Firemen, Indian tribes, social clubs and foreign countries including the Vatican joined in the effort.

Standing Idle in 1860

Pope Pius IX himself donated a plaque that on March 6, 1854 was stolen from the contruction grounds, allegedly by the American Party, who gained fame as the “Know-Nothings.” Americans who considered themselves as “native” Americans because they were born in the New World, had a not-so-secret oath to vote for only American-born protestants and to oppose the Catholic Church. They held disdain for the waves of immigrants moving in largely from Irish and Germany. These groups of people were mainly Roman Catholic. If they were ever asked about their politics, a member would answer like Sargeant Schultz and say “I know nothing.” In 1855, these Know-Nothings gained control of the monument society and Congress promptly cut the planned $200,000 earmarked for the project. That caused public support to dry up quickly. For the next 3 years, only 4 feet of marble was added and it was such poor quality, those four feet would have to be removed. Work stopped completely during the Civil War and the stub of marble remained as an eyesore in the middle of town.

Three Different Shades

Advance to the national centennial of 1776 and Congress authorized funds for the completion of the project. But,the US Army Corps of Engineers took a look and decided that there was no way on God’s Green Earth that the earth would support the weight of the monument. So, it took time and money to dig out nearly 3/4 of the dirt under the project so that concrete foundation footings could be poured. The proposed height of the obelisk was reduced from 600 feet to 555 feet 5 1/8 inches. Work was resumed in 1880 and the project was completed on this date in 1884 and was open to the public in 1888. Due to difficulties in delivering marble and the previous stops and starts, 3 different types of marble was used in construction of the monument, each with different colors and quality, resulting in a distinctively different look as one looks from top to bottom.

The Washington Monument is not the tallest obelisk in the world.  Texans deliberately made the San Jacinto Monument 15 feet taller.  Nevertheless, visitors to the Washington Monument can go inside and  see 190 commemorative plaques along the staircase, including one from the Vatican. The original was never recovered….they say it rests somewhere in the Potomac River and a replacement took longer to get across the pond than it did to build the monument. The replacement Vatican Plaque took its place among the rest in 1982, 128 years after the Know-Nothings almost brought the entire project to a halt. If they had just followed the desire of General Washington, then it may have been completed long before. He just wanted a horse.

GFS Not Real Enthused For Snow Accumulation Through Monday Evening

Weather Bottom Line:  I took a look at the vertical profiles progs and for Monday, neither the 18Z GFS nor the 18z NAM are too enthused about snow.   The GFS has some rain that turns to about a quarter inch of snow.  But,  for Wednesday night, it advertises an inch of snow.  The NAM has no snow for Sunday or Monday but rain carrying over from Monday into Tuesday.  The ECMWF and CEM models are similar with the first low keeping to our west bringing rain with perhaps some wrap around snow and then both have the more significant system on Wednesday but they aren’ t as bullish on the wrap around snow as the GFS.  My guess is that we don’t see significant snow.  Perhaps a little on Monday but I”m not so sure where the moisture will come from with the second system when the temperatures are below critical levels for the Wednesday/Thursday time frame.  That is still several days away and I still like that systems chances for bringing us some accumulations than the first system. 

We only made it to the mid to upper 30′s on Saturday and I betcha we only have some of the folks in the low 40′s for Sunday.  But, if you have chores, Sunday should be the time as there are several opportunities for precipitation in the week ahead.  We probably won’t get back up to seasonal temperatures until next Sunday.

Russian Sees US “disintegration” in 2010; Norwegian Sees US collapse in 2020; American Sees Mary Todd as misunderstood November 5, 2009

Russian Professor Says This is Our Fate

At the end of last year, the Wall Street Journal reported the assessment of Igor Panarin who said that US would “disintegrate” by June or July of 2010.   He said that a collapse of economy and of morals would result in a Civil War that would end with the United States being broken into the Republic of Texas, The Californian Republic, the Central North American Republic, Atlantic America and Russia would lay claim to Alaska while Hawaii would hook up with either China or Japan.   The journal describes Mr. Panarin as a “Russian Academic” and later points out that he is a former member of the KGB.  It seems that another professor  has come up with a similar prediction in a new book called, The Fall of the US Empire-and Then What?  Johan Galtung explains his new rationale in and interview with Russia Today.  He thinks that the fall began with the Korean War and claims that he had successfully predicted previous events, such as the fall of the Soviet Union.   But, Professor Galtung, the Norwegian sociologist and a principal founder of the discipline of Peace and conflict studies, offers hope.  He says what the US can do to avoid his gloomy forecast and its not another stimulus package, but instead a mixed bag of geopolitical action.  Keep in mind the book was published by Transcend Peace University Press and it provides the prolog to Galtung’s book.  I wonder if he would have had any marital advice to give Abraham Lincoln because…

On This Date In History: On this date in 1842,  Abraham Lincoln married Mary Todd. She was considered quite a catch in her day. I don’t think they had a “catch and release” program back then.

Mary Todd at age 28...catch of the day?

She actually is a rather interesting figure and there have been several biographies about her and numerous…hundreds…..written about Lincoln which delve into their relationship, how it affected his presidency. Its probably a good idea to read several to get some sort of perspective because each author will come at it from different perspectives and sometimes with a preconceived agenda or notion of what they want to say.   Jean Baker has one of the more recent biographies of Mary Todd and it paints a very sympathetic portrait by often using late 20th century sensibilities and transporting them back to the 19th century.  In my view, that is a flaw because you really can’t take modern psychology and modern ideals of society and try to use them to create a portrait of a person from the past.  I believe its like comparing apples to oranges and is often a problem when trying to draw conclusions.  One must understand the thinking and customs of the day when examining the events and people of the past.  If you look closely, you find that Professor Baker received funding from the Elizabeth Connolly Todd Foundation. Like I said, biographers look at subjects from different perspectives and different photos…the one adorning the Baker portrait of Todd is not the same presented above.

On this date in 1965, speedster Craig Breedlove’s wife, Lee Ann, tried to steal his thunder when she became the first woman to drive more than 300 mph on the Bonneville Salt Flats. I’m not sure if Craig got mad, but he certainly made sure he shared the spotlight. Just few hours later, Craig Breedlove got in his car and shattered his land speed record by reaching over 555 mph in his Spirit of America jet powered car. I don’t have a photo of Lee Ann.

Friday Morning Temps (NWS LMK)

Weather Bottom Line:  Lee Ann Breedlove might have been hot and someone in the mid 19th century might have thought that Mary Todd was hot, but our weather will remain on the cool side.  Thursday morning found some lows below freezing in the extreme southern and eastern parts of the viewing area and Friday morning, there may be more wide spread instances of the mercury tickling the freezing mark.  The National Weather Service in Louisville under the steadfast guidance of John Gordon provided their notion of area temperatures overnight in map form above.  What’s gonna happen is that the big fat area of high pressure that is over us now will move to the east and we will get a nice return flow.  That means are temperatures will be on the rise to the point that Saturday afternoon we will see mid to upper 60′s and Sunday afternoon maybe even some low 70′s.  A front moves through here on Monday bringing some rain and an end to the mild conditions.  That same front may also dictate what happens with Tropical Storm Ida, if it has not been broken up by its current trek over Central America.

Man in Charge of Taxation Falls Way Way Short on Income Tax Return, Remains in Charge August 29, 2009

Did Rangel Just Forget?

If you or I made a mistake on our income tax returns, did not disclose income and then were caught we’d certainly have to pay up, perhaps pay a penalty and maybe face charges.  Recently, we’ve seen public officials who not only didn’t pay their taxes, but they got appoinments even though it was revealed that they misrepresented their income on their taxes.  In some cases, it involves those who write tax law.  Charles Rangel is the Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, which is House Committee  “has the responsibility for raising the revenue required to finance the Federal Government.  This includes individual and corporate income taxes, excise taxes, estate taxes, gift taxes, and other miscellaneous taxes.”  Rangel was found to have not reported income of $75,000 on rental property.  He said it was a mistake.  He supposedly made restitution and the case was closed…or was it?

Now, the Wall Street Journal brings to light that the Chairman “amended” his 2007 returns.  He somehow overlooked at least a half million dollars in assets and income.  It may be as high as $780,000.  He somehow forgot about an account with something in between $250,000 and $500,000.  He neglected to mention accounts at JPMorgan, Merrill Lynch, Oppenheimer and BlackRock.  He neglected to mention properties own in New Jersey.  He failed to mention a fair amount of shares in YUM Brands.  He’s under investigation for using his letterhead for fundraising for a project that came to life due to a $1.9 million earmark funding from Congress….gee..wonder how that got in there? 

True Congressional Tax Policy

 

Anyway, is this the guy who you want in charge of writing tax law?  Maybe the guy just is a lousy bookkeeper.  But, on the surface it would appear that something else is afoot.  Do you ever wonder how a guy on his  salary can afford all of these investments..if he gained this wealth before or after he was elected to Congress…how a guy says he’w worth between $500,000 and $1.3 million and now he says he made a mistake and his net worth is between a million and $2.5 million?  If it walks like a duck…

Weather Bottom Line:  The initial front eased into the area on Friday night as expected.  In the afternoon, there was a localized cloud burst in Northeast Jefferson county and into Oldham County that supposedly brought up to 4 inches in a short time, but I can only find one rain gauge near prospect that registered over two inches.  Snow White called me to tell me that the sunflowers were getting all kinds of great rain yet it didn’t rain where I was downtown.  Curiously, when I came home, I saw the results of a heavy rain except in my rain gauge which was dry.  Hmmm..a stealth rain.  Anyway, the big front comes through today.  There may be enough residual moisture to kick off some showers but probably nothing signficant.  The real story will be the temperaturess.  Look for highs for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday in the low to mid 70′s.  Overnight lows will be in the 50′s with some people I betcha getting into the upper 40′s.  The warm up after that will not be quick but only back to the low 80′s by the end of the week.

Yugo, Dan Quayle Went the Way of the Roosevelt Simplified Spelling Guidelines August 26, 2009

Danny is looking for an "e"

On This Date In History: On this date in 1906, President Teddy Roosevelt made his final plans for his effort to be Vice-President Dan Quayle about 90 years before there was a Vice-President Dan Quayle. If you recall, on June 15, 1992 then Vice-President Dan Quayle went to an elementary school in Trenton, New Jersey. He decided to help a kid with his spelling and added an “e” to the end of the word, potato. That was effectively the end of Quayle’s political career and was no help in President Bush’s re-election bid. Well, Theodore Roosevelt got almost as much of a backlash, but managed to hold his seat in the White House.

In the early 20th Century, Philanthropist Andrew Carnegie funded an organization that crusaded for a more simplified spelling system. They advocated dismissing the “u” in behaviour and honour. To that end, they were successful, unless you live in Europe. They failed in their effort to convert “kissed” to “kist” and “though” to “tho”. There are many examples of success and failure but the point is, Teddy liked the concept. So, he ordered the public printer to change the spelling of 300 words to adhere to the code of the Simplified Spelling Board guidelines.

The response was swift, broad and wicked. One columnist wrote that “nuthing escapes Mr. Rucevelt. No subject is tu hi fr him to takl, no tu lo for him tu notis.” Congress wasn’t too certain that presidential powers extended to the spelling book and ordered the printer to pay no attention to the man with the big stick in the bully pulpit. So great was the public response, Mr. Roosevelt withdrew the order but later wrote that he glad “did the thing anyhow.”

Make sure you learn to spell properly. Dan Quayle never won another election and neither did Theodore Roosevelt.

Here is a list of all of the changes that President Roosevelt wanted to change…

WALL STREET JOURNAL-Rozevult’s List

 

Could the Yugo beat Herbie the Love Bug?

 

You GO!  Remember the Yugo?  It was a small, inexpensive car from Yugoslavia that went on the market in the USA on this date in 1985.  There were just 90 Yugo dealerships in America and the minute the automobile’s availability was announced, people had come in droves to put down a deposit on the $3990 car before they even saw it.   It was thousands less than any other car offered in America and by the time 1500 had arrived from Yugoslavia, there were orders for over 6500 waiting.  Though sales weren’t as high as expected for inaugural year, second year sales rose. 

Now, the Yugo was small but had lots of standard features.   Standard equipment included fabric upholstery, full carpeting, reclining front seats, folding rear seat, rear window wiper/washer, opening rear quarter windows, rear window electric defroster, low fuel warning light, cigarette lighter, locking gas cap, and a full size spare tire. There were few options such as air conditioning, stereos, floor mats, wheel covers, and roof racks.  I can tell you two things that shouldn’t be an option in the United States is air-conditioning and a stereo.

Check Out the Monster Yugo!

But, that wasn’t the only problem.  Seems that owners complained of mechanical problems including premature engine failure, bad brakes, poor shifter and transmission, and faulty electrical systems, and terrible dealer service.   Then there was the safety issue.  The insurance industry faulted the cars crash worthiness.  That last one is kinda stupid to me because anyone buying such a tiny cars are not buying it for safety.  Well, things didnt go so well and in 1989, they stopped importing Yugos to the US and Yugo America went bankrupt. But, it came back for a last hurrah in 1990 when new models came to US shores, but they didn’t last with the 1991 model year being the last for Yugo in the US.

Poor Little Car-Video Abuse

The company that made (makes) the Yugo is Zasatava.  If it weren’t for bad luck, they’d have none at all.  The plant at which they made Yugos was bombed by the US and its allies in the Kosovo war…seems it  was determined that it was making strategic arms.  But, they haven’t given up. In spite of crappy US exposure the first time around and in spite of not so crappy US bombs falling on the factory, Zasatava is at it again with the Yugo and it may try the US market again.  That is the history of Yugo.  Many people in the US have a different individual history of their Yugo.  Someone from Europe decided to show their video history of their Yugo..poor little car.

Weather Bottom Line: Well, the AC came back on Wednesday afternoon.  A bit too humid for me and the fat cats.  I saved some money for 3 days though.  There is a strong front that will come down, just like last weekend.  It will take us back to conditions more reminiscent of October or late September than late August.  It is also going to steer Tropical Storm..and probably Hurricane…Danny up the east coast..just like Bill except that it will probably be closer to the coast, even along part of the coast, than Bill was.  Not a slam dunk but we should get rain late Thursday or early Friday.  Not likely at this point but if we get destablized then we may get some strong storms but at this point, it does not appear that the atmosphere will get drunk..er…loaded up for that.

Cops Called to McDonalds Over Lost Orange Juice. GM Bankruptcy and Here Come the Brides May 29, 2009

New Chairman of General Motors?

Where’s My Orange Juice? I’m calling the Cops!! We recently had a story of a Texas woman who called 911 because the fast foot joint she went to didn’t have enough shrimp on her order as she thought that she deserved. (story I want my shrimp) Now, we have an Oregon man who ordered a meal at a drive through line at McDonalds. (Orange Juice Story with Video) He was supposed to have a box of orange juice and the clerk neglected to include it. If something like that happens to me, I drive back and go back to the store to retrieve the missing item. Not this guy. He called 911 arguing somehow that this is a case of freedom of speech. Are we becoming a society of whiners that if we don’t get our way, instead of finding a resolution on our own that we need to call government authorities to save us?

Maybe Harpo Is The New Chief

GM filing for Bankruptcy:  On May 15, 2009 the New York Post reported that the original proposal from GM to reorganize was for the labor unions to get 39% of the new company, the Federal Government to get about 50% control and existing shareholders would get the rest.  If you were one of the bondholders, those who took the risk to finance the $27 billion in debt, you would get way less than the 10% stake in the company that you hoped for.  More recently, the reports have the new deal sporting an 18% stake by the labor unions and the US and Canadian governments gaining a 70% stake in the company with Uncle Sam receiving the lion’s share.  Again, bond holders would get pennies on the dollar.  Today, it was announced that GM would become the largest company in history to file for bankruptcy.  It will be interesting to see what the final outcome will be.  But one thing appears certain and that is that the workers and union will own the vast majority of the new GM.  President Obama says he’s not into socialism and that he has no interest in the government running the auto companies. 

Chico at GM Helm?

He’s fired the head of General Motors, as would be the right of the person or entity in charge and now the government will take a huge stake in the company, labor will own the next largest stake and those who used their private money to invest will get nearly nothing.  Perhaps the long term plan is operating on the assumption that, over time, the stock price will rise and Uncle Sam will then divest itself of GM at a tidy profit.  FDR did something similar to this and the goverment did in fact eventually make a profit.  But, no one has publically stated this is the plan.  I suspect that is the objective but it should not come at the expense of private investors.  And besides, do you really think the Taxpayers will get a return of the profits? Not directly, of course, but the government will retain the return on the investment.   A potential consequence of this and the actions of the government taking control of the banks is that other nations look to the US as the proverbial “beacon on the hill.”  In recent years, other governments have decided it was best to back off of government control of businesses but, now that they see the US government changing relationship with capitalism and free markets, they perhaps will or are reconsidering their move toward freedom and back toward their old ways.  So, we’ll have the government and the workers owning GM.

UAW Black Lake Golf Course Clubhouse

The Wall Street Journal on May 21 reported that the UAW has $1.2 billion in assets.  At the end of 2007, $871 million was in the strike fund.  But, it also included a $3 million townhouse in Washington, DC and a $33 million golf course and resort on a lake.  Now they will be able to add about a 1/5 interest in an auto manufacturer that gets propped up by the American taxpayer.  Workers unite and fight those fat cats who live in million dollar homes and belong to country clubs!  If ideals were followed, then the adage of President Lincoln would apply which is that “a house divided against itelf cannot stand.”  Nevertheless, ideals and reality sometimes seem to be at odds. 

On This Date In History:  Asa Mercer was already the president of Washington Territory’s first university by the time he was in his mid twenties.  The Pacific Northwest had great natural resources attracting miners and lumbermen from around the nation.  But…there was a scarcity of women.  Mercer decided to fix that by placing an ad in a Seattle newspaper promising to find a wife for every man who paid $300 toward bringing a woman from the East.  A New York magazine hailed Mercer as a modern day Moses.  Skeptics suggested that the women would have nothing to do and their trade would be something less than honorable.  Mercer assured that the ladies would be employed as schoolmistresses and nothing more.  Those same skeptics wondered how they could all be school teachers if there were no children to teach.

Joan Blondell Well Before Her Role On Brides

Nevetheless, Mercer sailed a ship from Seattle and found he had some 300 adventurous ladies willing to take the trip.  However, by the time he was to set sail from New England, in January 1866, the number of volunteers had fallen to 100.  I guess they had second thoughts.  Those on board became even more fickle when they began romancing with the ships’s crew.  When they stopped in Chile, many became enamoured with the military officer’s stationed at Lota, Chile.  Apparently, one of Mercer’s ladies rode a spirited pony to the delight of onlookers such that 17 proposed marriage.   So, now Mercer had to deal with women who didn’t want to leave the crew and others who didn’t want to leave their Chilean suitors.  So, he set sail at night and secretly stole away…to keep his cargo from getting stolen away.  When they got to San Francisco, he lost 11 who got off and never returned.

On This Date in 1866, Asa Mercer arrived in Seattle with what was left of his precious cargo.  Many of the subscribers who had paid $300 were chagrined when they found out that their payment didn’t guarantee a woman.  One man was quite upset when the specific woman whom he had asked for showed up and turned out to be a different woman by the same name.  Undeterred, the man said, “All I want is a wife, and if you are willin’ I would as soon take you as the other woman.”  Such romantic overtones went unheeded as the woman replied simply, “I do not wish to marry, sir.”

It wasn’t a total disaster for the operation or for Asa Mercer.  Annie Stephens from Baltimore was one of the first to be married.  Her husband?  Asa Mercer.

Brown (top left) and Leonard (top right) Star Trek Veterans; Blondell (top center) Former Hollywood Siren

This little tale was no doubt the inspiration for the late 1960′s TV show, Here Come the Brides.  The photo above is of the Bolt brothers, Jeremy, Joshua and Jason as well as Candy, a girl with whom Jeremy was smitten.  Jeremy was played by Bobby Sherman, who was a teen idol.  His acting career went no where and after watching the tv show, you might find out why.  He tried his hand at singing and that too went nowhere.  Joshua was played by David Soul who later was one of the rogue young cops in Magnum Force.  I think Clint helped him exit the movie violently.  Later he gained fame for his role in Starsky and Hutch.  He capitalized  on that fame by singing a stupid song that was in the top 40.  Jason Bolt was played by Robert Brown who was an accomplished stage actor.  He is known perhaps more by his role in a Star Trek episode in which he played a guy named Lazarus.  I think that was the last we saw of him. Maybe he got the Star Trek gig by way of Mark Lenard, who plays Sarek in the 23rd century but was Aaron Stemple in Seattle in the 19th Century.  I have no idea who Candy was nor what happened to her.

I want to know what happened to Captain Clancy.  It seems to me that aside from Lenard and Soul, Here Come the Brides was the graveyard for actors though it was a pretty accurate show because, like the Asa Mercer story, it didn’t seem there were too many marriages.

(Snow White thinks I am too hard on Bobby Sherman in this…I told you he was a teen idol)

SPC Convective Outlook For May 30, 2009

SPC: 15% probability of Severe Weather Saturday

Weather Bottom Line:  There has been talk out there from some place of some terrible weather on Saturday.  Don’t fall for it.  It’s possible that we could get some interesting storms but there is no support at all from the data to suggest any major tornado outbreak or anything like that.  To our Northwest, there will be a dynamical set up that should induce  stronger t’storms.  There is even an indication from the GFS that a small shortwave comes down our way from that region late in the day on Saturday.  Because of this feature, the GFS is doing what it always seems to do and that provide a forecast of the vertical indicies to be pretty healthy, but not really the SWEAT index too much or others that would suggest tornadic activity.  What it does show would be the potential for hail.  I think its the greatest threat should this materialize.  That would also have a fair amount of lightning and even maybe some strong wind gusts.  It only throws out a half inch of rain.  The NAM is putting out over 1.6 inches of rain and even carries light rain through Saturday night and early Sunday.  The truth will probably be in between with maybe some t’storms in the afternoon though not overly troublesome but also, not with as much rain.   Nevertheless, the threat of severe weather is sufficient enough in the eyes of the SPC to put out a slight risk for our area.  I find most curious the mention of potential isolated supercells and a tornado threat. 

Otherwise, the pleasant Friday temperatures will generally hold through the weekend and then we get hot and humid for early next week with highs pushing toward 90 and the moisture getting somewhat uncomfortable and overnight lows not so low.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1222 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2009
  
   VALID 301200Z – 311200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS KY…MIDDLE TN…SW OH…SRN
   IND…IL…NRN MO AND FAR NE KS…
  
   …LOWER OH VALLEY/MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY…
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS WILL REMAIN IN
   PLACE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES SEWD
   INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SFC…A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
   BE LOCATED FROM NRN MO ESEWD ACROSS SRN IL INTO CNTRL KY SATURDAY.
   GFS/NAM/NAMKF AND SREF MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
   LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ACROSS
   IL…SRN IND AND WRN KY IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL
   JET. CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OR NEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP SOUTH
   OF THE CLUSTER SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL KY
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL KY
   AT 21Z SATURDAY SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF
   VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A
   SEVERE THREAT WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. AT THIS TIME…CONVECTIVE
   MODE REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. IF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAN
   ORGANIZE…THEN LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF
   LINE-SEGMENTS ARE FAVORED…THEN THE PREDOMINANT THREAT COULD BE
   WIND DAMAGE. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM. IF THE TIMING IS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY IS
   MAXIMIZED…THEN THE SEVERE THREAT COULD BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL.
  
   FURTHER WEST ACROSS NRN MO…MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOPS STRONG
   INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG.
   ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE WEAKER ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NRN
   MO…LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING COULD HELP INITIATE A FEW
   STORMS. THE STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL
   SHEAR EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR AN
   ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
  
   …LOWER MICHIGAN…
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO SATURDAY
   AS A 70 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
   WRN GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE…A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
   SEWD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WITH THE MODELS DEVELOPING
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
   RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON…FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 50 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH COLD
   AIR ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS AROUND -20 C/ SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL
   WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
  
   …SRN FL PENINSULA…
   A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
   SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE
   SOUTH. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F…MODERATE TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT. IN ADDITION…FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SATURDAY IN SRN FL SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL
   SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF WLY FLOW AT 850 MB COULD BE
   ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
  
   …NRN CA/SRN ORE/NW NV…
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NWRN
   STATES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE
   RIDGE IN THE SIERRAS AND IN THE CASCADES OF CNTRL ORE BY AFTERNOON
   AS SFC TEMPS WARM. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW /20 KTS OR
   LESS/…MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH
   FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING.
  
   ..BROYLES.. 05/29/2009

Raising Taxes on Fat Cats May Hurt All of Us; Create Your Own Dimples! May 19, 2009

 

Fat Cats Don't Work...They Just Sit Around, Drink Beer, Watch TV and Count Their Money!

Hauser Law Is Very Interesting....Look at that 90% Tax Rate!

Soak The Rich is Not a Panacea: 

When the tax debate arises, we hear one side say that “we just want everyone to pay their fair share.”  The opponents to this line of thinking almost always trot out the statistics that show that in 2006 the top 1% of taxpayers paid nearly 40% of all individual income taxes paid and that the top 5% paid over 60%.  The numbers climb to over 86% for the top fourth of all tax payers.  That means that 99% of taxpayers contribute 60% of the taxes collected, 95% of taxpayers pony up 40% of  all taxes collected and that 3/4 of all taxpayers account for just 14% of taxes collected. (2008 Tax Foundation)  President Obama ran, and was elected, on a platform that pledged for no new taxes for people making less than $250,000 which in 2008 would mean that those in the top 3 or 4% of taxpayers would get their taxes raised, again referring to the Tax Foundation.  Apparently, the administration feels like the top 3 or 4 percent of taxpayers are not paying their fair share even though they already pay about half of all taxes paid.

Now, keep in mind that there is a theory out there called Hauser’s Law.  It is described below (source)

Hauser’s Law is a theory that states that in the United States, federal tax revenues will always be equal to approximately 19.5% of GDP, regardless of what the top marginal tax rate is. The theory was first suggested in 1993 by Kurt Hauser, a San Francisco investment economist, who wrote at the time, “No matter what the tax rates have been, in postwar America tax revenues have remained at about 19.5% of GDP.“.

So, if taxes are always 19.5% of GDP, then we need to increase the GDP and lead the tax rates alone, right?  But, current political thought doesn’t go along with Hauser.

NYC Jobs Vs City Tax Rates

But, here is a real world consequence.  I have a friend who has a business that employs 20 some odd people.  I gave him a hard time saying that he needs to write me a check.  He told me something interesting.  He said, “I’m not going to make less money.”  So, his solution will be to let a couple of employees go.  So, raising his taxes will cost two jobs and, two additional tax payers.   The Manhattan Institute wrote some years ago an article that showed when New York City raised taxes, city jobs were lost and city jobs were gained when taxes were lowered.

Arthur Laffer and Stephen Moore put out an op-ed piece on Monday in the Wall Street Journal(Soak the Rich, Lose the Rich-May 18, 2009 WSJ). 

Arthur Laffer

They point out that from 1998 to 2007, 1100 people a day moved from the nine highest state tax states, which includes CA, NJ, NY and OH and that most relocated to the non-income tax states that include FL, NV, NH and TX.  Over those years, the non-income tax states had 32% greater income growth and 89% more jobs created than their high tax state counterparts.  CT, NJ and NY in recent years increased the tax rate on those making over $200,000 to 5%, 8.97% (nearly a 50% increase) and 7.7% respectively.  In the years 2002-2005 those states all had a significant reduction in taxpayers in that bracket.  CT ranked 46th, New Jersey 49th and New York 50th in the percentage increase in wealthy tax filers during those years.   And remember, that is well before the current economic downturn.  These people simply moved. 

Stephen Moore

The problem here is that so many legislative issues regarding taxation seem to assume a static economy or static environment.  The truth is that there is a constant flux in any economy and the personal situations of any individual.  There are consequences to actions and sometimes they are unintended.

The article takes on the idea that lower taxes inevitably leads to cutting services to the poor, lower quality schools and lower police protection.   The authors boldly state, “they’re wrong.”

They point to New Hampshire having no sales tax or state income tax.  Yet, their schools produce the 4th highest test scores in the nation and spends $5000 less per student than New York.  They also cite the fact that California has the highest paid teachers with students who score second lowest in testing.

TX Gov. Rick Perry Competes on Global Scale

They wind up with Texas.  The Texas governor says that Tejas doesn’t just compete with other states, but with other nations and tries to create a competitive business environment to stay in the arena with the likes of China, France, Germany and Japan.  Texas is indeed a whole other country.  Texas has no state income tax yet, in 2008, created more jobs than the other 49 states combined.

The states with the highest tax rates are generally the ones in the most fiscal trouble.  Most of us won’t be affected by the current notion of taxing the highest income folks in our nation and states.  So, we don’t care and think it’s okay.  But, higher taxes on the big shots can negatively affect us all.  My friend will let two people go.  Wealthy taxpayers are leaving states meaning those states get nothing from people who were putting several dollars in state coffers.  Fewer jobs are created in states with high tax rates than those who have no state income taxes.  Don’t you think our lawmakers should think this out instead of playing to the crowd?  What sounds good in a speech isn’t necessarily a good solution to any problem.

Natural or a Goetze Creation?

Try the Dimple Maker on Any Part of Your Body!

On This Date in History:  A man in Berlin, Germany thought that dimples would be a good idea.  But, not everyone has dimples.  So, the Prussian Martin Goetze went to work on a device to make dimples. He found success and on this date in 1896, the US Patent office issued Patent No. 560,351 for a dimple maker.   In his patent, Goetze said, “In order to make the body susceptable to the production of artistic dimples, it is necessary…that the cellular tissues surrounding the spot…should be made susceptible to its production by means of massage…the knob of the devices arm must be set on the selected spot…the cylinder serves to mass and make the spot where the dimple is to be produced malleable.”

No Proof Goetze Had Anything To Do With Shirley

In other words, this guy makes a brace and bit device that has a rounded tip on the bit that is rotated round and round to massage the place where you want a dimple.  Good thing he had this patented….someone else may have stolen his idea.  But, I doubt if he ever acheived Shirley Temple-like dimples on anyone.  That creation came from the hand of one greater than man.  However, I’ve seen some dimples on the backside of some bikini whales down at the beach that may be from the hand of Goetze.

 

I told you so!

Weather Bottom Line: 

Enjoy the week.  Big ridge moves in.  Another cool start Tuesday but the mercury will climb as the week progresses.  Don’t be surprised to see mid 80′s by Thursday or so.  The ridge will block out everything.    It will drive a developing area of low pressure in the Bahamas across Florida and along the Gulf Coast states.  I told you yesterday to expect the National Hurricane Center to be aggressive with this system and….well…it’s another Colonel Klink Moment!   Later in the season, they would not waste the time or money sending a hurricane hunter to investigate this.  But, I suspect that it’s a good chance to test out their systems and do a run through so they will send one out on Tuesday, even though they admit there is a low probability of it developing into a tropical cyclone.  There will probably be some reporting on this due to the pre-season nature of the system which gives a good opportunity to promote the fact that hurricane season is upon us in less than two weeks.  If you’ve got plans to vaction in Florida or along the Gulf Coast in the next few days, take a deck of cards, some jigsaw puzzles and other games for the kids.  Here’s the NHC report from Wednesday:

ABNT20 KNHC 182335
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY…IF NECESSARY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…LESS THAN 30 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER
SPECIAL OUTLOOK REGARDING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

White House “Scares The Crap” Out of New York For Photo Op; Talking Rarely Brings Peace April 28, 2009

World War I Protest...What a Waste of Time

White House Wastes Money for "Classified" Photo Op and Scares Taxpayers Who Paid For It

Can you Imagine if this was the Bush Administration?  So, on Monday, a large low flying commercial jet was reported flying near New York City.  What people saw was a 747 with two fighter jets near by.   One could easily surmise that there was another attack coming and the Air Force was chasing down the plane.  Or maybe some people didn’t see the fighters and only saw a 747 flying low near the Statue of Liberty,  which is near the World Trade Center.  The public in the area panic and starting running pell mell in all directions.  At first it was reported as a “military drill.”  As it turns out, it was nothing more than a photo op involving one of the planes that serves as Air Force One.  And who approved it?  The Obama White House!  They wanted to get a photo of Air Force One with two jet fighters flying with the Statue of Liberty as a backdrop.  The mayor of New York said he didn’t know about it but some reports say that the military told the city but said that they couldn’t tell anyone because it was classified!  Haven’t these people ever heard of photo shop?  President Obama is telling us how he is going to reign in spending, yet the White House thought it was a good idea to spend untold thousands of  taxpayer dollars to get a photo  and scare the very taxpayers that it are supposed to be serviing.  Ask yourself…wouldn’t the outrage be deafening if this had been the Bush Administration?  Yet…the media seems to be burying the story.  Here’s the take from the New York Times from the NY/region page…not the front page.  Compare it to the Wall Street Journal, which includes video.  The story from Newsweek headline rightly says it “scared the crap” of out New Yorkers.

Jacobs Words Were Useless

On This Date In History:  Ever noticed how there are some people who feel like that effort or intent is  more important than actual results?  Symbolism over substance.  Today marks such a day because, if that’s not the case, then it would be largely forgotten.  On this date in 1915, World War I (then known as the Great War) raged and the International Congress of Women convened at The Hague in the Netherlands.  The meeting was one of women’s rights organizations and suffrage groups from around the world.  One of the main organizers, Aletta Jacobs, said in her opening remarks that the group meeting would “have its moral effect upon the belligerent countries,”  The conference lasted 3 days and concluded in part ”…we can no longer endure in this twentieth century of civilization that government should tolerate brute force as the only solution of international disputes.”  They outlined specific ways of conflict resolution with continual mediation. 

1915 US Delegation to Hague

Of course, it didn’t work, not in this war or any other armed conflict.  WWI went on for 3 more years. Two decades later we had World War II followed by so many other conflicts.  Now, you might say that if these nations had listened to what is often referred to as the Women’s Peace Conference then these other conflicts wouldn’t have happened.  But, in WWI no one was giving up an inch on the battlefield nor at the negotiating table.  In 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain tried the negotiation route and he ended up sacrificing the people of Czechoslovakia for a piece of worthless paper that precluded a world war.   

WWI Could Not End Until Someone Gave Up

I mean really…I wonder if these ladies really thought 20 years after their peace conference that one could reason with Adolph Hitler?  Gee…if the two sides had only talked more, wonder what would have happened?    Negotiations didn’t stop Slobadan Milosevic, it was the bombs of the United States Air Force ordered dropped by President Clinton.  When you extend a hand, you have to have a hammer close by.  People like these women meant well.  But they seem to think that having a meeting and bringing attention to themselves does anything when in fact, it does nothing.  Remember, war is defined as nothing more than an extension of political will.  The object of war is to get the other side to quit.  When there is an impasse in talk, the only thing that is left to do is take action if its important enough. Action requires boldness.   However, at the dawn of the 20th century, it became more apparent that the results of action could be devastating and so the total destruction of war became part of the equation….measuring risk vs. reward.

If you look at the Great Seal of the United States.  You will find that in the talons of the Eagle, there is an olive branch as well as a cluster of 13 arrows.  The most obvious representation is that the 13 arrows is for the 13 original colonies.  But, the cluster of arrows and the olive branch indicates “peace through strength.”  The founding fathers knew that a strong nation was one more likely to live  in peace. 

Pragmatism and reality doesn’t seem to disuade or convince folks though because, today there are many associations like International Congress of Women that think they are doing something, that tell people they are doing something and have people tell them they are doing something when, in fact, they accomplish nothing except headlines.  Martin Luther King achieved success through action, although it was peaceful action. ..and I’m not talking about walking around with signs.   The US achieved freedom through action.    The Spirit and words of President Roosevelt do well here:

 

 

You Tell'em, Teddy!

“It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how

the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself for a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat.”

 

SPC: Not a Big Deal Tuesday

Weather Bottom Line: The pattern looks pretty much holding true to form which is the idea of getting rain with t’storms on Tuesday as a weak front sneaks through.  If you noticed the sky on Monday, the clouds had almost no vertical development.  This would suggest warmer air aloft considering that we got to the mid to upper 80′s and still had no convective growth.  Any jet streaks have also moved out of the area.  With a strong front, then one could get enough lift to create some good storms.  But, in this case, the front is weak and therefore the slope is gentle.  So, it would need some help getting good lift.  But with not much of a good lapse rate and  no dynamics helping, its tough to get good storms.  Hence, you see we have no real severe threat on Tuesday.  Clouds and showers will hold the temps down to the mid 70′s.

As I had previously mentioned, the front doesn’t go far south but it appears that it will probably get far enough south to make for a decent Wednesday.  Having said that, I wouldn’t call it a slam dunk.  The times I got burned the worst on a forecast was when a front didn’t go far enough south.  It will be close.  Thursday, the front returns as a warm front and brings a risk of showers.  Friday, a cold front sags down and rain chances go up again.  I think that Oaks Day is iffy.  I’ve seen some reports being all kinda optimistic but, here’s the problem; the cold front may get hung up over the area which would enhance rain chances.  Then, there is some indication suggests that a wave of energy will run up along the front over us.  Timing would be the issue.  If the wave comes through in the late afternoon, strong thunderstorms are not out of the question.  If it’s in the evening, then, then it may be okay.  The European model wants to take the bulk of the energy well north which would put the threat in the plains.   The GFS is more interested in bringing a threat to the mid to upper Mississippi Valley and part of the Ohio Valley.  It seems to me its a risky bet to call for no chance for rain or a dry day almost any day this week.  Good news is that for the Kentucky Derby, it still looks like that high pressure will build in long enough to make for a dry and mild Derby Day with rain then coming back for Sunday.

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1225 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009
  
   VALID 281200Z – 291200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN TX…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH…CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
   THE COUNTRY…WILL EJECT NEWD AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT MERGES WITH A
   STRONGER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL
   PUSH A COLD FRONT EWD THROUGH THE NERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY ON
   TUE…WHILE THE WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
   MS/SRN PLAINS REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SWD THROUGH ORE/NRN CA
   IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS
   WILL RESULT IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
   EXTENDING FROM THE SWRN STATES NEWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS.
  
   …SRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN TX…
   FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS NRN TX WWD IN THE SRN TX
   PANHANDLE DURING THE MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE OCCURRING
   ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT…ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
   …WHERE STRONGER FORCING IS EXPECTED DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
   JET/ISENTROPIC LIFT. COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   MOISTENING ADVECTION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATE A MARGINAL
   THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
   MORNING.
  
   HOWEVER…THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
   50S IN NM AND 60S IN TX SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY
   …WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN TX BY
   AFTERNOON…AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG NWD DRIFTING E-W
   ORIENTED FRONT…REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONNECTION AND IN
   MOISTENING UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS ERN NM. VEERING WINDS IN THE
   LOWER 3KM COMBINED WITH MODERATE 40 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KT AND SUPERCELLS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK MOST
   FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL…STRONG TURNING IN THE LOWER 1-2 KM AND A
   RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FAVORS SOME TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN
   ERN NM AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
  
   OVERNIGHT…ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD IN ZONE OF
   STRONG WARM ADVECTION…THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
   POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS.
  
   …MID MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND…
   THOUGH CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   MID MS/TN AND INTO THE OH VALLEYS IN THE MORNING…WEAK LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE. IN THE NERN STATES
   …LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
   THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND CONVERGENCE MAY
   SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY
   …MODERATE/STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WINDS INDICATE A THREAT OF
   ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 18Z-01Z.
  
   ..IMY.. 04/27/2009

http://alphainventions.com/

alphainventions

Global Warming Goof: IPCC Can’t Verify Data? Herbert Hoover a Socialist? Ozone Hole Spin? Smoking Ban Lifted? November 17, 2008

00Z 1117 NAM 60 Hr. Wed AM Surface

Look for a front to move through on Monday. There may be some sunshine just after the front moves through but the clouds should return late Monday.  After a blustery and brisk Monday, a very isolated chance of a flurry but really the story is the mercury.  Tuesday morning mid to upper 20′s.  Tuesday afternoon probably not out of the 30′s despite sunshine.  Wednesday morning low to mid 20′s.  We don’t see any 50′s until next weekend.

IPCC Can’t Verify it’s Data? Back in July I posted articles that questioned the veracity of the research

What Happened To This Graph From the 1990 IPCC Report?

used by the United Nations and its International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  In that post (here) you find that there were many people who questioned the infamous “hockey stick” graph that showed a relatively steady temperature throughout the time frame until you get to the 20th century at which time temperatures go straight up.  I wondered about where the “mini-ice age” was from about 1350 to about 1850 and also the previous time from around 1000 to 1300 in which the Vikings were runnnig around Greenland raising crops and sheep.  As it turns out, more learned people than I asked the same question and the IPCC was forced to capitulate and admit that their hockey stick graph was false.  Now it seems that the data from at least one month was corrupted and after saying that October was the hottest on record, the IPCC has had to back track again and admit that their data was wrong.  In fact, circumstantial data so far indicates that October may be the exact opposite of the initial erroneous report.  Two aspects of this latest fiasco concerns me.  One is that the people in charge admit that they do “not have the resources

IPCC Has Revised Forecast Downward

to exercise quality control” over the data that it collects!!!  So, now we find out that the International Panel on Climate Change has no way to monitor the veracity of their data collection.  Yet, these are the people controlling the information that governments around the world are basing thier future policies and economies.  The other thing that troubles me is that THIS REPORT comes to my attention via the London Telegraph.  I can’t find any American media outlets that have brought this to the attention of the people of the United States.  Mr. Gore told us that the debate was over, yet he based his movie and this statement on a bunch of people who admit that the have no quality control over the data.  Doesn’t the American public have the right to know such reports and the explanation?  The IPCC reports were top of the newscast stories on the national networks…but this one gets buried.  Why do you think that is so?

Revised Ozone Report  If you recall, a few days ago I brought to you a report that said that the ozone hole was the 5th largest ever recorded.  I suppose others had a similar reaction to what I had which was that there was legislation that was supposed to cure the ozone hole and everything was fixed and we could feel safe.  Well, it looks like to me that someone high up the chain didn’t like the headline and ordered someone to make a revision because here is the new, revised report, that opens by saying that the US has reduced its ozone depleting substance production by over 97%!!!  Amazing how you can spin one story.  Here is the latest version.  Compare it with the old version which was just a few days old.

Herbert Hoover Bashing  In these economic times, we’ve heard that we face the worst crisis since Herbert Hoover.  In the 1992 election cycle we were told that it was the worst economy since Herbert

Misunderstood? A Socialist?

Hoover.  Of course, if a Democrat was in office during the election-time downturn, the cry would be that its the worst economy since Jimmy Carter.  Anyway, this past election we heard charges of socialism.  Did you know that in the 1932 one of the candidates was charged with having socialistic policies because of his desire for government intervention in the economy?  It’s true and the charge was made against Herbert Hoover by Franklin Roosevelt.  We have always been taught in school that Hoover just sat back and wanted to let the market place take care of the problem.  In truth, Hoover was seen as an interventionist because of all of the pumping of governmental dollars into the system.  After he lost the election, Franklin Roosevelt did the same thing but on an even grander scale.  There are historians who, in this time of Hoover bashing, want to give the reputation of Herbie a makeover.  Here is the story from the Wall Street Journal that appeared in the election day edition.  It accurately points out that Hoover was a man of many great accomplishments before and after his term in office…it’s just that things didn’t go so well during that one term and that has been his legacy. And that’s a shame because he was in many regards a great man.

Fire It Up!

Smoke’em If You Gottem:  And finally, again from our friends at the London Daily Telegraph…seems that several months ago a smoking ban was put into effect on the casinos at Atlantic City.  Casino owners argued that business would suffer because other casinos in the country didn’t have smoking bans.  Business would suffer, they said. The Atlantic City city council said nonsense.  Now that revenues are down at area casinos, and therefore tax revenues, the city council apparently agrees with the casino owners because the smoking ban has been lifted.(video story)  Light’em up and head to Atlantic City!

Rain To Change Our Fortunes; Spelling Dooms Presidential Fortunes August 26, 2008

Here is a link to a cool set of photos in a slide show brought to our attention by Rick, a frequenter of these here pages. He sent it as a response to this post but I’m bringing it to your attention….CLICK HERE for Photos From Parker, CO Tornado

2 Day Rain Forecast Tue and Wed

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in to street level, loop and navigate anywhere in the entire nation .

The track of the remnant of Fay is lifting up and perhaps a shade farther west. That is good for we in the Louisville Metro area. Now, we are on the left hand side of the storm and by far, the heaviest rain will be to our east and south. But, if you look at the 2 Day rain forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center you notice that they have nudged the rain blob farther west to perhaps an inch. That is not too far off and we are currently looking more closely at the ETA model which over the weekend advertised a blob coming over Louisville. Conversely, the GFS has no interest in rain for the next few days. Given the current position of the center of Fay and its previous track and the environmental conditions, we feel like a good shot at area wide rain, beneficial rain, is in the cards, particularly Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. A front comes through late Friday that may bring some showers or t’storms, followed by a great looking Labor Day Weekend.

Taking Aim at Mr. Webster

Don't Forget The "e"

On This Date In History: On this date in 1906, President Teddy Roosevelt made his final plans for his effort to be Vice-President Dan Quayle about 90 years before there was a Vice-President Dan Quayle. If you recall, on June 15, 1992 then Vice-President Dan Quayle went to an elementary school in Trenton, New Jersey. He decided to help a kid with his spelling and added an “e” to the end of the word, potato. That was effectively the end of Quayle’s political career and was no help in President Bush’s re-election bid. Well, Theodore Roosevelt got almost as much of a backlash, but managed to hold his seat in the White House.

In the early 20th Century, Philanthropist Andrew Carnegie funded an organization that crusaded for a more simplified spelling system. They advocated dismissing the “u” in behaviour and honour. To that end, they were successful, unless you live in Europe. They failed in their effort to convert “kissed” to “kist” and “though” to “tho”. There are many examples of success and failure but the point is, Teddy liked the concept. So, he ordered the public printer to change the spelling of 300 words to adhere to the code of the Simplified Spelling Board guidelines.

The response was swift, broad and wicked. One columnist wrote that “nuthing escapes Mr. Rucevelt. No subject is tu hi fr him to takl, no tu lo for him tu notis.” Congress wasn’t too certain that presidential powers extended to the spelling book and ordered the printer to pay no attention to the man with the big stick in the bully pulpit. So great was the public response, Mr. Roosevelt withdrew the order but later wrote that he glad “did the thing anyhow.”

Make sure you learn to spell properly. Dan Quayle never won another election and neither did Theodore Roosevelt.

Here is a list of all of the changes that President Roosevelt wanted to change…

WALL STREET JOURNAL-Rozevult’s List