Say Hello to Tropical Storm Gustav! August 25, 2008

To track the remnant of Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in to street level, loop and navigate anywhere in  the entire nation.

Tropical Storm Gustav 11AM Track 0825

As I had mentioned previously, I suspected that we would be seeing the birth of Gustav this week and indeed has happened.  The satellite imagery of Invest 94L is very impressive.  The National Hurricane Center has went ahead and made it a depression prior to the arrival of the Hurricane Hunter which is, by the way, officially the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the Air Force Reserves based in Biloxi, MS.  I’m not sure what the procedures are of when and if they send out the high altitude Gulfstream.  Anyway,  I looked at some limited buoy data yesterday and thought one might be able to make an argument for some surface circulation then, though I had no clue as to how broad it was. I know the central pressure yesterday was 1008mb from maritime advisories.  Anyway, just 4 hours after they made it a depression, the flyboys got into the storm and they quickly upgraded TD7 to Tropical Storm Gustav with winds of 60 mph and hoisted hurricane warnings for the Domincan Republic and Haiti. The recon flight reported a closed eyewall with a diameter of 30 nm.  This guy is developing rapidly and now you know why I’ve been keeping you to date on this and marginalizing invest 95L.

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0825 12Z

The official track takes it up across Cuba and then along the northern coast

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Graph

 of Cuba toward Key West.  However, from the spaghetti models, it appears this is the mean track of the models and so it will remain to be seen how this develops and where it goes.  A large number of the models, as indicated by the Spaghetti Intensity graph, increases the storm in strength rather rapidly to hurricane level.  I would think that the entire coast from Jacksonville, FL to the Texas coast will want to watch this guy.  My view is echoed by the last line of the discussion which says HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS NOT HIGH…PARTICULARLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
 It seems to be in a good spot for development and it is certainly climatologically in a favored region and time of year.  Here is the special discussion followed by the initial discussion:

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
200 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO UPGRADE THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL
STORM GUSTAV WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 50 KT…AND TO CHANGE THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH
FOR HISPANIOLA.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED…HOWEVER THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER
INITIAL INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/1800Z 15.8N  70.5W    50 KT
12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N  71.1W    60 KT
24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.6N  72.2W    65 KT
36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.8N  73.3W    65 KT
48HR VT     27/1200Z 19.7N  74.2W    70 KT
72HR VT     28/1200Z 21.0N  75.5W    55 KT
96HR VT     29/1200Z 22.0N  77.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     30/1200Z 22.5N  78.0W    60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING IN THE
CARIBBEAN.  WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED…
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM.
ANALYSIS OF DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES FROM A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
INDICATED A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER.  THEREFORE WE ARE
INITIATING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN.  AN SSM/IS
IMAGE FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO DEPICTED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AT THE 91
GHZ FREQUENCY…BUT IT WAS NOT EVIDENT ON THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL.
SINCE THE LATTER CHANNEL IS MORE SENSITIVE TO THE LOWER-LEVELS…
THIS EYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS PRIMARILY ALOFT.  INTERESTINGLY
HOWEVER…THE GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES ALSO SHOW A RELATIVELY CLEAR
AREA NEAR THE CENTER THAT RESEMBLES AN EYE.  OUR INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 30 KT BASED ON AN EARLIER REPORT
FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42059.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AN UPCOMING AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SHOULD GIVE UPDATED INFORMATION ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER
ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.  CURIOUSLY…THE GFS HAS FAILED
TO PREDICT DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE THUS FAR.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 305/13 ALTHOUGH RECENT IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
THE MOTION MAY BE A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THIS VALUE.  THERE IS AN
UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD TO OUR TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SEEMS TO BE
THE RESULT OF TWO PRIMARY SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM.  ONE WOULD BE A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK INTO A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC…AND THIS IS
DEPICTED BY THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  A SECOND SCENARIO IS
FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BEND MORE WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER FLORIDA…AND THAT IS DEPICTED BY THE
BAM TRACKS…THE HWRF…AND THE GFDL.  OUR FIRST OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST SOMEWHAT SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BUT LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER
SCENARIO.  HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS NOT HIGH…PARTICULARLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THIS FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/1500Z 15.5N  70.1W    30 KT
12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N  71.1W    40 KT
24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.6N  72.2W    50 KT
36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.8N  73.3W    50 KT
48HR VT     27/1200Z 19.7N  74.2W    55 KT
72HR VT     28/1200Z 21.0N  75.5W    55 KT
96HR VT     29/1200Z 22.0N  77.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     30/1200Z 22.5N  78.0W    60 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

Hurricane Hunter Set To Check Out Invest94L August 24, 2008

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in to street level, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida, The South or the entire nation for that matter.

5 Day Rainfall Forecast 0825 00Z to 0830 00z

Tropical Storm Fay is now Tropical Depression Fay and will soon be just a

7 Day Rainfall estimate 0817 8am to 0824 8am

tropical low.  The center of circulation has broadened nicely.  Areas that got too much rain continue to get passing rain and t’storms.  As you can tell from the 7 Day rain accumulation through Sunday morning at right, areas like North Georgia that need the rain are getting some.  The moisture should stay bottled up in the South for a time as a frontal boundary pushes down.  By midweek, the system should lift north enough that some shower activity may move into the Ohio Valley.  But most of the rain will slip off to the east and bring the rain that they need in Eastern Tennessee and North Georgia, as you can tell from the HPC 5 day rain forecast at left. Except for the stories of woe from the heavy rain, Fay is pretty much done with and the National Hurricane Center has handed off Fay to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) and is now concentrating its attention on other items of interest.

 

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model 0824 18Z

Invest 95L is still out there and looks decent on satellite imagery.  As I said

Invest 94L Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0824 18Z

before, all indications are that it will be of interest to mariners though I saw one model that wants to swing it close to the east coast, but still offshore.  Now, Invest 94L is looking so interesting that the National Hurricane Center has a couple of flights planned to investigate on Monday.  If the conditions remain worthwhile, the Hurricane Reconassaince folks will be out and about to see if a depression has formed.  Satellite imagery looks to show something trying to come together. The Invest 94L Spaghetti model indicates a wide variance of opinion with some models taking it up toward Florida while others wanting to take it to South America.  The truth is probably somewhere in between which is why this guy will need to be monitored.  Should it get going good and even sniff the Gulf of Mexico, we’ll all pay for it at the pump whether or not it even gets close to any drilling operations.  The spaghetti intensity graph remains muddled depending whether or not your model of choice runs it into land or even develops it any further.

Tropical Storm Fay One Tough Storm August 21, 2008

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

11PM Wed Night NHC Tropical Storm Fay Forecast track

Fay is a rather interesting thing. I’ve been telling you since the storm was around

Fay Spaghetti Model 0821 00Z

Haiti that it had a good structure and the only thing standing in its way from being a formidable storm was land. Well, the storm continues to have a pretty good structure, according to the satellite and radar depictions, in spite of spending almost its entire life interacting with land. It actually gained strength over Florida dropping to 988 mb and winds increasing to 65 mph. We have some thought that this was over Lake Okeechobee when it happened and that may have been a causation, though I’m not convinced that relatively small body of water (in relation to the storm) could do that all by itself. In any event, it even developed a small eye. Then it slowed down over land and started to fill and the pressure rise. When it finally emerged just offshore, it started to get stronger again with the pressure back down to 994mb as it just basically sits about 20 miles offshore.

As I have noted previously, because of the slow movement, that has allowed the big fat high pressure ridge to the north to build in. So, its going to get shoved back to the west before getting too far off the Florida Coast. That has to happen. Beyond that, there are still many questions. One that is not a question is that there will be lots of rain. It should ease up somewhat in Central Florida but not before they get 2-3 feet of rain. I betcha north Florida and South Georgia get some 10-15 inches at least. But with the ridge building, I have been watching to see if this guy doesn’t get shoved back into the Gulf of Mexico for a time. The boys at the NHC seem to be coming around to that because, not only have they shoved the official forecast farther south to the Gulf Coast, but they also mention the potential for the storm to go back to the Gulf. While this would cause it to strengthen some, I doubt if it would get to a hurricane as a couple of the models depicted in the Spaghetti Intensity Graph indicates. I mean, it’s never been a hurricane before. I still think that this guy will traverse the Dixie States and eventually have an opportunity to move up the Mississippi and Ohio Valley our way be midweek. Folks in the South should hope I am right. The alternative may be for it to sit in Northern Mississippi and rain itself out.

As for disturbance Invest 94L, It doesnt look so good right now but the previous spaghetti forecast maps and spaghetti intensity graph pretty much mirrors the 00Z 21Aug 2008 stuff so I’m not bothering to say more at this time. Here is the NHC 11pm Wednesday Discussion for Fay:

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 FAY HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY WHILE CENTERED ONLY ABOUT 20 N MI OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA…AS SHOWN BY NWS WSR-88D RADAR DATA AND CONFIRMED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE STORM HAS OCCASIONALLY LOOKED FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE…WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND WHAT ESSENTIALLY QUALIFIES AS AN EYE. WSR-88D VELOCITIES ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THE MOST RECENT COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS SETTLED FOR NOW AT 994 MB. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE FAY IN A FEW HOURS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF FAY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD GET FAY MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD…ALTHOUGH SLOWLY…WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA…SINCE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING…THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TOMORROW…GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SAGGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH…AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST POINTS LISTED BELOW DO NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT…THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK HUGS THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IF FAY ENDS UP MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST…AND SPENDS MORE TIME THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF…IT COULD BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH A COUPLE OF DAYS FROM NOW. IF…HOWEVER…IT MOVES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK…IT COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK…FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 28.9N 80.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 29.2N 81.2W 50 KT…INLAND 24HR VT 22/0000Z 29.4N 82.2W 40 KT…INLAND 36HR VT 22/1200Z 29.7N 83.3W 30 KT…INLAND 48HR VT 23/0000Z 30.1N 84.6W 30 KT…INLAND 72HR VT 24/0000Z 31.0N 87.0W 30 KT…INLAND 96HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 89.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/0000Z 32.5N 90.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB

Tropical Storm Fay The Rainmaker; Invest 94L Lurking August 20, 2008

for a more recent update on fay and other items of interest in the tropics, CLICK HERE

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

Official NHC Fay forecast track 5pm 0820

Fay is behaving badly, but not unexpectedly. I told you several days ago that I

Fay Spaghetti model track 18Z 0820

figured that the legacy would be heavy rain and that is bearing out.  I had thought though that it would be about 75 to 100 miles farther north, and that may still bear out.  It slowed so much over the peninsula that while it was dawdling, the ridge was building in.  Now, it will start to be influenced from the ridge in a place farther south than the previous official forecast.  While the official track takes it slowly across north Florida and to the northwest, it is not totally out of the question for the storm to move west and re-emerge over the Gulf of Mexico before swinging back to the west-northwest and northwest.  It still has a pretty good looking structure on satellite and pressures started dropping and winds increasing the second it got offshoe, but the official forecast is for it to run out of time and stay below the hurricane threshold before moving back ashore.  While the general scenario is becoming relatively clear and it will continue to be a big rain maker with winds having a marginal effect except for the occasional tornado, the exact track over the next 48 hours is still beyond the ability of mankind.  You can tell the level of uncertainty in that the “cone” is actually a giant circle on the official forecast track. Here is the discussion from the boys at the Melbourne office of the NWS.  Hydrometeorological models indicate that 30 inches of rain could fall in some areas.  The map above is the late afternoon storm totals of the region.  Some areas northwest of Melbourne have received over 24″ of rain and Melbourne had officially received over 16″. 

DISCUSSION…

…EXTREME FLOODING DANGER CONTINUING IN SOUTH BREVARD…
…TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED!!!…

TONIGHT…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH
AND ACCORDING TO THE WIND TOWERS AT CAPE CANAVERAL…THE CENTER WAS
JUST ALONG THE NORTH SIDE AT THE COAST.  HOWEVER…A CONVERGENCE
ZONE CONTINUED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND WAS RESULTING IN A
PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.  AMOUNTS ARE
BEING MEASURED IN FEET…WITH ONE REPORT IN NORTH MELBOURNE OVER 24
INCHES AND SEVERAL OTHER SPOTS AROUND MELBOURNE AT 16-18 INCHES.
THESE RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EASILY RECORDS AND WILL TURN OUT TO BE
HISTORICAL FOR THE LOCAL AREA.  THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER ANTICIPATES STORM TOTALS NEAR 30 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE RESULTING FLOODING HAS PRODUCED LIFE THREATENING FLOODING IN
SOUTH BREVARD…ESPECIALLY MELBOURNE…AND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARD IN THE SHORT TERM.

THE CENTER OF FAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING…WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST.

Tropical Disburbance 94L:  It is important to note that the National Hurricane Center is not showing

Invest 94L Spaghetti Intensity Graph 18Z 0820

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model 18Z 0820

much enthusiasm for this feature at this time, making statements that slow development is possible. The Spaghetti models above continue to indicate a motion taking it north of the islands.  However, it is interesting to note that the spaghetti model intensity graphs continues to show some models wanting to take it to hurricane status, with a few even to category II.  It will be interesting to see how this guy develops.

Tropical Storm Fay’s Future Clouded August 18, 2008

for a more recent update on fay, click here

Track Fay’s Progress 24/7 by clicking on this US Interactive Radar (click here) that allows you to loop the image and zoom to any location in the nation to street level. Find out the weather for friends and relatives along Fay’s path or anywhere else in the country. There is also computer derived analysis of individual storms.

Fay is pretty much going on schedule but that will change soon. It crossed Key West at about

Fay NHC track NRL Graphic 5 pm 0818

3PM and winds went calm there at that time. So, there was some sort of eye and the pressure had dropped to 998mb with the late afternoon

Fay Spaghetti Track Model 0818 18Z

Hurricane Hunter pass. It is trying to intensify and will get close to minimal hurricane status just prior to landfall near Ft. Myers. It takes a track similar to Charlie toward Jacksonville. After that, its way up in the air. Several models want to take it back to the west in the SE US. Couple want to take it back to the Gulf and some take it into the Atlantic. Others want to stall it in Georgia and the boys at the NHC keep going along with the ones that take it well inland though a building ridge will make that difficult. The official track starts to curl it around but I suspect that what will happen is that this guy slows down to a crawl in North Florida or South Georgia as it gets blocked by the high building in from the northeast. That in turn will drive it west. It will be interesting if it ends up back in the Gulf for redevelopment. It’s not necessarily probable but not totally out of the question. Bottom line is that there will be a lot of rain in the SE and I’m sure that Lake Lanier will be getting plenty of water so we don’t have to hear from the Weather Channel about that subject any more. Sometimes I think that they act like the whole world revolves around Atlanta.

Invest 94L NRL fcst track 0818 5pm

Also…interesting situation with Invest 94L. Its a disturbance way out there. The Naval Research Lab track still maintains that it will be a

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model Track 0818 18Z

tropical storm heading toward the Yucatan Channel. The spaghetti models insist on a storm developing and moving north of Puerto Rico. That is a wide berth. But, I think the important thing is that both scenarios have a another developing tropical cyclone and all interests should pay attention. There is a weird weather pattern going on in the Lower 48 that is more reminscent of late hurricane season toward the fall. Fay didn’t behave as one might expect for August and this next guy that will probably become Gustav seems likely to misbehave as well.

Here is the 5pm discussion for Fay on August 18 from Jack Beven at the NHC.

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

SATELLITE…RADAR…AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FAY HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER…AND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS
CONTRACTED TO ABOUT 30 N MI. ADDITIONALLY…THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS FALLEN TO 998 MB. HOWEVER…THIS HAS NOT YET CAUSED THE WINDS
TO INCREASE…AS AIRCRAFT…RADAR…AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THE
MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 50 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A TCU
WAS ISSUED NOTING LANDFALL WHEN THE WINDS AT KEY WEST WENT CALM AT
3 PM. LATER DATA SUGGESTS THIS WAS DUE TO A MESOSCALE FEATURE
ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER CENTER OF THE STORM…AND THE TRUE
CENTER OF FAY IS OVER KEY WEST NOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/10. FAY IS ENTERING A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. BEYOND 36-48 HR…THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT
OUT…WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AHEAD OF A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN RESPONDING TO
THIS PATTERN. THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INLAND
THEREAFTER. THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND
FORECASTS A NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…WITH A
SHARP TURN TO THE WEST AFTER 72 HR. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS A
SIMILAR FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR FAY TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC…FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AND
MOTION BACK INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AFTER 72 HR. FINALLY…THE GFDL
AND THE HWRF CONTINUE FOR A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION WELL INLAND
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GIVEN THE INCREASING SIGNAL FROM
THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT NEW RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BLOCK FAY’S
PROGRESS…THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOWER AND MORE
WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THE EARLIER PART OF THE TRACK…WHICH
CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA IN ABOUT 18 HR FOLLOWED
BY A TRACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
EAST AND LIES NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WHILE FAY REMAINS IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND IS BATTLING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT…THESE CONDITIONS
ARE NOT SEVERE ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING. THUS…THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL. WHILE
NOT EXPLICITLY A FORECAST POINT…IT IS LIKELY THAT FAY WILL MAKE
LANDFALL AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. AFTER 24 HR…THE
INTENSITY WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON WHETHER FAY IS OVER LAND…AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON FAY REMAINING OVER LAND AND THUS
DISSIPATING. IF FAY REGAINS THE ATLANTIC OR THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD…IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONGER THAN
FORECAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT…SIMILAR TO CHARLEY IN 2004…SMALL
DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
WHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY MAKES LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA
COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 24.6N 81.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 25.8N 82.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 27.4N 81.9W 55 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 20/0600Z 28.8N 81.7W 40 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 20/1800Z 30.0N 81.5W 35 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 21/1800Z 31.0N 81.5W 30 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 22/1800Z 32.0N 82.5W 25 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 23/1800Z 33.0N 84.0W 20 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Warnings Hoisted in Keys; Hurricane Watch For Gold Coast August 17, 2008

Fay is getting close enough to coastal radar installations to track its approach using this National Interactive Radar (Click Here).  You will find it centered on the Ohio Valley but it can be moved anywhere in the country to street level and also be looped.  It also provides some computer generated analysis of any particular storm cluster.

Fay 5pm 0817 NHC Fcst Track

At 5pm Sunday, A Hurricane Watch was up for the SW Florida Coast, a Tropical

Fay Spaghetti Model 18Z 0817

Storm Watch for the SE Florida Coast and a Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Keys.

The general forecast remains the same with Tropical Storm Fay running just south of the southern coast of Cuba…the circulation just over water so it doesn’t get killed but enough of it over Cuba to prevent rapid intensification.  It should slow its forward speed as it turns and then emerges just Southwest of Key West.  From that point, as it moves on a more northerly trajectory, it will have an opportunity to develop to the point that a hurricane of 85 mph or so will move into Florida’s Gold Coast near Tampa on Tuesday and then it moves west of Jacksonville, west of Savannah an east of Atlanta and eventually into

Fay NHC Fcst Track 5 PM 08/17 NRL Graphic

western Virginia or even eastern Kentucky.  Now, you will note the cone for the outlying period is pretty far west. That is because there have been a couple of

Fay Spaghetti Intensity Graph 18Z 0817

models that have insisted on taking the storm farther west. If you look at the spaghetti model map, you will find more than a few suggesting that.  It still seems improbable to me because there is a trof that is moving across the Ohio Valley on Wednesday that should pick up the storm.  I suppose that the scenario for it to be farther west would be for it to move farther west in the Gulf and slip under the trof.  If that were to occur, then the whole forecast is off the mark and so far the boys at the NHC have handled this one very well.  As I said in a previous post, if it doesn’t slow down before it starts to get influenced north, then it will swing wider out into the Gulf.  But the NHC still feels like it will slow its forward progress and make a pretty tight turn from WNW to N. How it turns and when it turns will determine the intensity as that will determine how long its over open water.  If you look at the spaghetti intensity graph you will see huge differences.  Here is the 5 pm discussion from the NHC:

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

FAY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANZIED IN SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON…WITH INCREASED CURVED BANDS OF CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER…THERE
ARE SINGS OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE…WHERE THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR STRONG WINDS.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1003 MB…ALTHOUGH THE PLANE HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE
WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
45 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY AND A 45 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM TAFB.

THE CENTER OF FAY SURGED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY…AT ONE TIME MOVING BETWEEN 18-20 KT.  THAT MOTION APPEARS TO
HAVE ENDED…AND THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN 300/13.  FAY IS APPROACHING A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO…WHICH IS DEVELOPING
DUE TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 24 HR…
BUT THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
HOW MUCH OF A TURN WILL OCCUR.  THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SHARPER TURN WITH LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA…WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING FAY CROSSING TO THE ATLANTIC THEN
MOVING WESTWARD TO HIT FLORIDA AGAIN.  THE GFS AND GFDL HAVE
SHIFTED WEST SINCE THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS…WHILE THE UKMET HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST.  THESE MODELS HAVE JOINED THE HWRF IN
CALLING FOR A TRACK NEAR OR JUST OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.  THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO FORECAST A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  OVERALL…THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE…
POSSIBLY DUE TO THE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL POSITION CAUSED BY THE
MOTION SURGE.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ABOUT 60 N MI TO THE
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE…BUT LIES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.  THE NEW TRACK
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  THE SHIPS MODEL NOW
FORECASTS PERSISTENT WIND SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD…WITH
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHTER SHEAR FROM 18-48 HR.  THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WEST OF FAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN…WITH
NO CLEAR EVIDENCE AT THIS TIME OF WHICH IS CORRECT.  IT APPEARS THE
SHEAR WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FAY TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS
SHOWN IN THE GFDL MODEL…AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS
FOR INTENSIFICATION ALONG THOSE LINES.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
HWRF CALLS FOR FAY TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO…WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST A PEAK JUST
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.

THE FORECAST TRACK SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF HURRICANE CHARELY
FROM AUGUST 2004…IN THAT A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM
COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE EVETUAL LANDFALL LOCATION.  THE
NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES PRODUCT SHOWS ABOUT AN EQUAL CHANCE OF
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/2100Z 21.0N  80.2W    45 KT
12HR VT     18/0600Z 22.3N  81.7W    50 KT…INLAND
24HR VT     18/1800Z 23.8N  82.8W    55 KT…OVER WATER
36HR VT     19/0600Z 25.3N  83.1W    65 KT
48HR VT     19/1800Z 27.0N  83.2W    75 KT
72HR VT     20/1800Z 30.0N  83.0W    65 KT…INLAND
96HR VT     21/1800Z 33.5N  82.0W    30 KT…INLAND
120HR VT     22/1800Z 37.0N  82.0W    20 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Still Not Too Exciting Except For the Wall Street Witch July 3, 2008

Locate and Track Storms Anywhere in the Country with a National Interactive Radar…Click Here.

SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK

Same story as previous. SPC still doesn’t like severe threat too much with Thursday night Frontal passage. Lapse rates are not good as mid-level temperatures fall with frontal approach. Moisture also appears to not have much time to get back here and we may have numerous clouds for much of the day. I’ll have more later Thursday. Friday and Saturday look to feature scattered showers. Probably won’t see a total washout on the fourth but scattered afternoon storms seem likely. Not totally out of the question for many people to dry out in time for fireworks, but it’s a timing issue both with regards to the weather and in regard to when you have fireworks.

On This Date In History: Hetty Green died on this date in 1916. Who is Hetty Green? Why the Witch of Wall Street! Seems kinda sexist to call a rather ornery rich woman a “witch” when rich old coots might be called “tough” or “hard nosed.” Anyway, she is said to have learned to read the financial pages at age 6. She inherited a million dollars from her father at age 30. At that point, she became quite shrewd as she bought Civil War Bonds when others thought it was a bad investment. She made a mint. Basically, she took her million inheritance and increased it 100 fold. But, she was rather odd in that she lived like a pauper. Supposedly, Hetty married so that her heirs would be her children and not other relatives that she didn’t care for. She kept an office in a bank from which she negotiated a rent free lease. She moved from hotel to hotel to avoid paying property taxes. Hetty had a son and a daughter and when her boy hurt his leg in a sledding accident, she took him to a charity hospital. Well, hospital personnel recognized her and demand that she pay. She refused and decided to treat the child’s injured leg herself. He ended up losing the leg. She forced her children to eat as she did, which was ham sandwiches. Some call her thrifty, others a miser or the Witch of Wall Street. She died on this date in 1916 of a stroke suffered while arguing with a maid over the price of milk!! Can you imagine what she would be like with today’s rising prices?

Don’t worry, The Who may have been aware of the story because the Kids Are Alright. Hetty left each child $50 million. The more famous J.P. Morgan was worth a reported $70 million and her wealth equaled that of Henry Ford. In 2008 dollars, her fortune would have been near $2 Billion.

See what happens when you watch your pennies? She may have been a witch, but she was probably the wealthiest witch Wall Street had ever seen. Here’s a Forbes list of early wealthy Americans.

LIST OF EARLY WEALTHY AMERICANS

Friday & Sat Threat, June 27 & June 28 June 27, 2008

Story really hasn’t changed much.  You can tell these graphics aren’t a whole lot different than previously.  Isolated/scattered stuff this afternoon.  Storms should be similar to yesterday in which a few get a little strong…perhaps heavy downpour, lightning, gusty wind….that sort of thing.  May be marginal enough that they put out a warning or two just in case.  Tonight,there should be an MCS blowing up in Illinios that would traverse east.  It should die as it moves east but the remnant may be in our area.  In the discussion below, that is what they are talking about when they talk about our CAPE getting reduced on Saturday morning.

Now, on Saturday, same story.   Front approaching in the heat of the day. T’storms likely.  Strong storms in spots. Main threat would be for strong winds.  Any tornadoes would be very isolated and would be the random type that is found on a bow echoe or cell merger or something.  In other words, strong winds with a fancier name.  We’ll keep  you up to date. 

Remember, if you need to find a t’storm and want to track it yourself for any storm anywhere in the nation all the way to street level, just click on the interactive radar.

Top Map is Today. Lower two are Saturday.  Below is the discussion from the SPC regarding the Ohio Valley. 

   …SYNOPSIS…
  
   UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY…GREAT LAKES
   AND OH VALLEYS…WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST. A FRONT ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SE AND EXTEND
   FROM AN OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
   AND SRN PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
  
  
   …TN AND OH VALLEYS AND LOWER GREAT LAKES…
  
   RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEWPOINTS
   WILL PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER…POTENTIAL FOR
   AREAS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING STORMS AND MODEST
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 2000 J/KG. STORMS
   WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AS WEAKLY
   CAPPED WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES. STRONGER BULK SHEAR WILL LIKELY
   REMAIN IN POST FRONTAL REGION. HOWEVER…DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES
   WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD WITH GENERALLY
   30-35 KT BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES.
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND ASSOCIATED
   WITH MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS. HOWEVER…VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BECOME
   SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.