Flooding Takes Hundreds of Filipino Lives; US Press May Be Less Ignorant of Oregon Trail October 9, 2009

US Chinook Helicopters Bringing Aid to Disaster in Philippines Despite Silence in US News Media

This is a street in Rosales Township Where this guy found a manhole

While the news outlets covered the world reaction to the Nobel Peace Prize going to President Obama, the media seems almost oblivious to the plight of the Philippines.  The death toll and misery continues to rise in the wake of Typhoon Parma (Pepeng) that loitered around the nation, already reeling from the devastating flooding and nearly 300 deaths wrought by Tropical Storm Ketsana.  Though you may not hear about it on cable tv or the national news in the United States, the Philippines Flooding Photo gallery says it all.  This video of flooding in the Philippines from Parma was posted October 7…yet you heard nothing on the US News networks and very little in the papers. 

Click On Image For Latest Loop

For days, I had been saying that there was a very real possibility of this storm coming back to the Philippines after it went through the first time.  For some reason, there didn’t seem to be as much concern about this than I think there should have been.  Nevertheless, that is what happened and after it crossed just off the east coast and was downgraded to tropical depression, convection started to explode as it moved back to the west and extremely heavy rain fell on waterlogged parts of the northern Philippines.  The result is that officials are saying that flooding in the Pangasinan Province is the worst in 50 years.  Parts of the country are being called  giant rivers.  The death toll for the latest round of mudslides is up to 181 and will probably go higher.  That is on top of the 25 lives that  Typhoon Parma took during its first trip through and in addition to the deaths caused by Tropical Storm Ketsana a week before.  The total deaths in the Philippines from Ketsana and Parma now stands at over 540 and the toll on the economy will be staggering.  The last I saw, the UN had pledged $74 million in aid, or about one quarter of Alex Rodriguez’s contract.  The US is providing aid but its going to take more and will be interesting to see how a budget strapped global economy steps up. 

7 Day Rainfall NASA TRMM

Just yesterday, I had posted a story in which a few people had died from a landslide, including a worker who was out cleaning up from the previous storm.  I couldn’t believe it. I was wondering what they were thinking.  The 7 day Philippines rain total to the left from the NASA TRMM satellite shows how much rain has fallen and they knew that flooding was a very real possibility…yet they ignored the risk as a tropical cyclone remained almost over the  top of them. One spot in the Northern Philippines according to the NASA data reported 106.92mm (4.21″) of rain in the last 24 hrs, 203.37 mm (8.01″) in the past 72 hours and 399.33 mm (15.72″).  That is on top of the nearly two feet they got the week before.   I suspect that they got lulled into a sense of security because Parma had not dropped too much on them as it meandered across the second time and weakened.  But, with an island that small, it doesn’t take much for the center to get close enough to water for the convection to explode. It did and it’s no surprise.  Not saying that they could have done much but, it may have been a good idea to hold off on clean up until the danger had passed.

Parma Forecast Track (Pepeng Track)

Now, I’ve read some stories saying that the storm “may” be moving away from the Philippines.  I suspect that they put this qualifier because the “journalists” were just reading each other pronouncements of certitude based on  bogus speculation.  It was always a real possibility that the storm would come back.  This time, it is almost impossible for this guy to come back. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center Discussion)  It is offshore in the South China Sea and is moving west slowly.  The speed will pick up as a ridge of high pressure in China expands and drives the storm toward Vietnam, which will probably experience flooding, though Parma’s regaining intensity will most likely not take it back to Typhoon status, but instead back to a strong tropical storm.  While the environment is favorable for re-generation and Parma has amazingly maintained a good low level circulation, its probably going to hit SE Asia before it gets a chance to get all wound up again.

John Jacob Astor

On This Date in History: I’m sure many people have heard of the Oregon Trail but probably aren’t familiar with where it is except Oregon. In the early 19th Century, Lewis and Clark gained the blessings and financial support (Probably Not Constitutional) of President Jefferson. That paved the way for commerce with John Jacob Astor leading the way in the American fur trade. Again, it was Thomas Jefferson who encouraged Astor, who formed the Pacific Fur Company. Astor sent a man named Wilson Price Hunt to establish a base of operations and in 1811, Hunt followed the trail of Lewis and Clark to the Dakotas and then cut over land through Jackson Hole and eventually to the mouth of the Columbia River. They called the place Fort Astor.

The War of 1812 broke out and the Crown sent a warship to seize the fort. The guys in the fort figured out that they were in trouble so, being good businessmen, they sold the town to their British competitors. The North West Company purchased the fort, renamed it Fort George and the British gained control without firing a shot and presumably John Jacob Astor got some money for his trouble.

Did Ogden Have a Neck?

Just before the Brits took over the fort, a group of men led by Robert Stuart left Fort Astor for St. Louis. That party in 1812 was the first follow the Oregon Trail, though they did it in reverse. About 10 years later, the Northwest Fur Company merged with the Hudson Bay Company and a hellion with the Company named Peter Skene Ogden was used as a inspector of operations in the far west. He got the position probably to keep him out of the offices because in the past, he had tried to incinerate a campanion for fun, nearly beat a company officer to death and led an entire outpost in a mutiny. Ogden ended up knowing more about the west than anyone except for mountain man Jedediah Smith. Ogden’s explorations made its way to cartographers who made maps that paved the way for settlers to emigrate west over the Oregon Trail. I suppose that Ogden Utah got its name from this rough and nasty man of the west.

Ezra Meeker 1906

Ezra Meeker and Friend 1910

So, a bunch of people went west following the Oregon Trail. One was Ezra Meeker who took his family along the trail in 1852 and moved into the Washington Territory. What makes Meeker stand out was in an attempt to keep the history of the trail alive and honor the men who blazed it, Ezra Meeker got an ox and wagon and took the trail again, stopping often to give speeches and promote its importance in history. Meeker at the time was 75 years old. It was a tough trip and the ox died, but not Meeker. So enthused with his efforts, he did it again in 1910. In 1915 he traveled the route by automobile. And on this date in 1924, Ezra Meeker once again followed the trail that he first set out on 72 years earlier. This time he was 93 years old and this time he made the 1300 mile journey like a bird. He traveled by airplane. At age 98, he attempted to travel the trail by car again with the support of Henry Ford, but he died on December 3, 1928.

Recognize This View From Kindergarten Cop?

Fort Astor is today known as Astoria, Oregon and was the setting for the movie Kindergarten Cop. Meeker had his last oxen team slaughtered and mounted by a taxidermist and can be found today on display, still hooked to the wagon, at the Washington State Historical Society Museum in Tacoma. A commemorative coin was struck in the 1920′s and 30′s to commemorate Meeker and the trail. In the 1980′s, a computer game company put out “The Oregon Trail” game and had a default feature that listed Ezra Meeker in 5th place on the all-time scorer list with a score of 2052. Why they picked that score is a mystery to me.

I’ll tell you what…in the dictionary under “obsession” should be a picture of Ezra Meeker.

Weather Bottom Line:  A cold front will come through and leave us with a dry weekend, but it will be a cool weekend.  Look for highs in the upper 50′s and low 60′s with overnight lows in the upper 30′s and low 40′s.  It probably won’t be quite as cool as previous forecasts indicated as it looks like a wave will be coming out of the west which will prevent the cold air from completely spilling into the Ohio Valley and instead will bring another chance for rain early next week as another cold front comes through.  Perhaps the much chillier air will spill down then.  As it is, we will be cooler and fall like, and it looks like there is a pool of exceedingly cold air for the time of year just waiting for a chance to dive into the lower 48.

Typhoon Melor Leaves Japan Behind;Former Typhoon Parma Still Taking Filipino Lives October 8, 2009

Click on Image for most recent W. Pacific IR Loop

See latest storm info and story on rising death toll from Typhoon Parma-over 100 dead in Philippines CLICK HERE

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track

Typhoon Melor crossed the Japanese Island of Honshu relatively quickly but still brought very heavy rain and gusty winds.  At least three people lost their lives as a result of Typhoon Melor.  The forecast track for Typhoon Melor was pretty much on the money with a landfall early Thursday morning with winds topping at 139 kmh or 86 mph south of Nagoya, Japan.  The wave heights were some 9 meters, or 30 feet.  The Typhoon Melor prognastic reasoning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been consistent with the idea that the storm will quickly transform from a tropical cyclone into an extra-tropical storm as it continues to race to the northeast.  Due to its rapid movement, the effects of the storm will subside across Japan by the end of the day. It’s moving so rapidly that the JTWC has issued its final warning for Typhoon Melor.  Commuter train service was haulted Thursday morning in Tokyo but will be restored by the afternoon rush hour.  Toyota shut down plants for the day but operations should resume quickly.  Shipping interests also will be returning to normal as the seas begin to subside.  Hokkaido will feel the effects of Melor will persist even though its losing its tropical characteristics because the structure will not change the windy and heavy rain aspects of the storm.

Parma Forecast Track

Meanwhile, to the south, the remnant of Typhoon Parma (JTWC discussion) remains parked over the northern Philippines.  Early Thursday morning, convection began to explode over parts of the island as the storm center had drifted just off the northeastern coast of the nation.  Wednesday had been relatively benign an clean up operations began from Tropical Storm Ketsana over a week ago.  The heavy rain produced by now Tropical Depression Parma brought more landslides that killed at least 6 more people, including a man who was doing clean up work and also several small children who were buried in their homes.    The storm is expected to continue to linger over the Philippines throughout the day before it moves to the west and finally away from the drenched nation on Friday.  Thereafter, it should regain some strength as it moves toward Vietnam, which also suffered from flooding and deaths due to Tropical Storm Ketsana. 

Depression 21 Forecast Track

Meanwhile, if you look at the color enhanced infrared satellite loop above, you will notice two other areas of interest to the east-southeast of the Philippines that appear to be candidates for development.  The largest of the two is to the east of the Philippines and is showing up quite prominently on the satellite loop.  It has been designated Depression 21 and is forecast to have some development but the forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggests a more northward movement and it is not expected to affect land at this time.  However, to its south and east is another system that looks suspicious to me.  I’m sure the JTWC will begin issuing reports on it over the next 48-72 hours.

Parma Parked Over Philippines; Typhoon Makes Turn Toward Japan October 6, 2009

Parma(pepeng) Satellite Image 1130Z 1006 Still looks rather impressive

For a more recent update on Typhoon Melor as it makes landfall in Japan and Parma still in the Philippines, CLICK HERE

Water Vapor Image 2030Z 10.06 click image for latest loop

The tropical storm formally known as Typhoon Parma has followed the general track that I outlined several days ago.  The satellite image above shows that the storm still has a very impressive structure considering that it has spent much time of cooling, upwelling waters and has not been completely over the water for some time.  The satellite water vapor image and loop is not overly impressive as the storm center is now over land in the Luzon province of the Philippines. This recent news report says its not over the Philippines and won’t make landfall, but the satellite says otherwise. So far, Parma has taken 22 Filipino lives.   A ship sank in the rough South China Sea, courtesy of Parma  You can detect some convection that shows up a little better on the Infrared color satellite image above. 

Click Image for Most Recent Color IR Loop

Parma has reacted as I suggested that it might a few days ago and as the GFS model has been consistently suggesting over time.  The NOGAPS also came around to that way of thinking but the official forecast from the JTWC did not reflect this potential in its official forecast until this morning, though they did make mention of it in their discussion.  While Parma is located over the Philippines, the threat of heavy rains will persist.  Parma dropped very heavy rain in the southern portions of Taiwan and the mountainous regions of the Philippines will be under the threat of landslides until the storm gets picked up by an expanding ridge in China which will take the storm to the west back into the South China Sea.  A note for those of you in Southeast Asia:  The Joint Typhoon Warning Center discussion below indicates that the environment in the South China Sea will be conducive to re-intensification as Parma moves westward toward mainland Asia.

Parma(pepeng)Forecast Track 18Z 10.06 click image for latest update

WDPN33 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA)//
WARNING NR 36//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA) HAS MAINTAINED A STRONG CON-
VECTIVE SIGNATURE CHARACTERIZED BY MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED
TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF LUZON OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. TS PARMA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A BREAK OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT PARMA'S RECENT SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT CAN
BE ATTRIBUTED TO SOME INTERACTION WITH TYPHOON MELOR, LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 675 NM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND KNES AND THE CURRENT POSITION IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 060935Z WINDSAT IMAGE, WHICH CAPTURED THE SYSTEM JUST
PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE THE
LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B.  AS TYPHOON MELOR CRESTS ITS SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND
TRACKS TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES, TS PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF LUZON.
BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE SOME ENERGY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
    C. BEYOND TAU 48, TS PARMA WILL START TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CHINA WHICH
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD. AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE
BECOMES MORE DEFINED BY TAU 72, PARMA WILL START TO PICK UP TRACK
SPEED THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND RE-INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS
GENERALLY AGREE WITH AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE WEST, THOUGH THE TIMING
AND DEGREE OF THIS TURN VARIES WIDELY AS PARMA CURRENTLY SITS IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THIS FORECAST LEANS ON THE EGRR TRACKER
PROVIDED BY THE UKMO AND THE EXTENDED-RANGE FORECASTS PROVIDED BY THE
ECMWF.//
NNNN

W Pac Infrared Satellite 2030Z 10.06 click image for latest loop

Typhoon Melor continues to progress as forecast.  The slight interaction with Parma that caused Parma to slide farther south and southeast back to the Philippines resulted in a slight northwestward hitch in the path of Melor as it moved across the northwestern Philippines Sea.  The result of this is that the curving of motion took place farther west than earlier anticipated and the northeastward track has now set the stage for the Typhoon to run up the largest Japanese Island of Honshu and eventually close to Tokyo.  However,  as the storm rounds the edge of the ridge of high pressure that is steering it, Melor starts to get sheered by unfavorable upper level winds.  The latest satellite imagery indicates this deterioration has already begun.  As it accelerates northeast, it will encounter land after landfall south of Kyoto,  Japan and continue to interact with the Japanese mainland and come into a hostile environment as it begins to transition into an extra-tropical cyclone.  The fact that it will be going through a deterioration stage will mean only minimal typhoon strength winds as it goes across Japan and the fact that it will be increasing in forward speed will limit its rainfall potential.  Nevertheless, the Japanesese topography should enhance the rainfall potential, particularly on the eastern slopes of the mountains and so heavy rain is likely only the eastern third of Japan. 

Typhoon Melor 1130Z 1006 Losing Some Symmetry

WDPN34 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR) HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS THOUGH RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO ERODE IN THE
NORTHWESTWERN QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES
THAT POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AS TY MELOR IS CRESTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON DIVORAK FIXES

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track 18Z 10.06 click on image for latest update

BY PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. IN ADDITION, THE SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE
WAS 113 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY MELOR WILL CREST THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WILL START TO ACCELERATE
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS, TY MELOR WILL START TO ENCOUNTER MORE UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF KYOTO, JAPAN.
ADDITIONALLY, MELOR WILL START TO ENGAGE WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AROUND TAU 24 AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48.
THE MODEL AIDS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A LANDFALL SCENARIO WEST
OF TOKYO, JAPAN. HOWEVER, THE UKMO TRACKER, EGGR, IS THE EASTERN
OUTLIER AS IT TRACKS THE SYSTEM OVER TOKYO, JAPAN. THIS FORECAST DOES
NOT TAKE MELOR AS FAR EAST AS THE EGRR TRACKER, THOUGH IT DOES TRACK
CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS.//

Parma Forecast Track Dangerously Close to the Philippines; Melor Has Sight on Tokyo October 6, 2009

W Pacific color IR 2330Z 10.05.09 (click image for loop)

for a more recent update on Parma (pepeng) and Typhoon Melor, CLICK HERE

Parma Forecast Track JTWC

The former Typhoon Parma forecast track (JTWC discussion below) is getting uncomfortably close to Luzon in the Philippines.  Basically what is happening is that the powerful Super Typhoon Melor (JTWC discussion below) is racing west-northwestward across the Philippines Sea and its substantial flow is taking the drifting Tropical Storm Parma back south from the same direction that it came.   Melor is being affected a little by this binary interaction with Parma and is now forecast to move a little more northwest prior to its shift in direction.  Typhoon Melor gets caught up in a strong southwesterly flow and it shoots to the northeast and begins to get sheared in the process.  That would weaken Melor as it moves up along the western coast of Japan, though the most recent forecast tracks have been consistently running the storm either across Tokyo Bay or just at the entrance to Tokyo Bay.  However, this latest forecast track has the storm swinging farther west(due to Parma) and therefore the northeastern track has Melor streaking inland over the top of Tokyo itself.  It  remains to be seen if that track comes about but Melor is expected to be a minimum typhoon at that time.   I suspect since it had been so formidable and because of its forward momentum, it will probably have a higher storm surge than what might normally be expected with a weakening typhoon that is transitioning to extra-tropical status.  On the other hand, its quick pace would also mean that the threat for extreme rainfall in Japan may be reduced.

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track JTWC

As for Parma, the forecast suggests that the storm does not strengthen as it moves back south or south-southeast because its moving very slowly back over water that is already been churned up.  That would mean that essentially the warm water on the surface has been blown around and cooler water from below has come up to take its place. Its called upwelling and is why a tropical cyclone needs to stay on the move if its going to survive.    Nevertheless, the issue with the Philippines and particularly the area around Manila, is rainfall and just because  the intensity decreases doesn’t mean that heavy rains are not possible.  Remember, Ketsana was just a tropical storm and flooding from it killed nearly 300 people and some 200 more in Southeast Asia.  Now the boys at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center do kick the storm out to the west before it comes back across the Philippines but it may be close enough to cause problems.  In the meantime, the forecast calls for an increase in intensity as it kicks west and that could mean problems down the road for the same parts of Southeast Asia, namely Vietnam, that also had trouble with Ketsana.

Mon 18Z NOGAPS valid 00Z Wed

Mon 12Z GFS valid 00Z Wed

Here is what is troubling.  I only have access to the 12Z run of the GFS and the 18Z run of the NOGAPS.  Previously, it was the GFS that kept on wanting to take Parma back over the Philippines, most notably right over Manila.  Now, Parma is kinda stuck between a ridge to the west and ridge to the east.  Its got nothing to steer it except the little bit of influence south by Melor.  The thinking is that the ridge to the west will be dominant and take Parma west.  The Joint Typhoon Warning Center seems to be discounting the GFS and NOGAPS as indicated by this sentence in their discussion:  “The available numeric guidance are in wide disagreement with the GFS and NOGAPS attempting an eventual turn to the Northeast and the European and EGRR and ECMWF favoring and eventual westerly track into the South China Sea.”  My concern is that the GFS has been consistent in wanting to bring the storm back over the Philippines one way or another. 

Mon 18Z NOGAPS valid 00Z Thu

Mon 12Z GFS valid 00z Thu

Now, the NOGAPS has jumped on board with that thinking, at least for this model run.  This storm has been exteremly difficult to track due to so many variable influences and the fact that its kinda gotten stuck in no man’s land without strong steering guidance.  In my view, it is still beyond human capabilities to make any definitive statement concerning the ultimate fate in relation to Parma.  I think its safe to say that rain will continue to fall over Luzon, whether or not its intense heavy rain over an extended period of time remains to be seen and we’ll just have to wait and see whether the influence of Melor will be sufficient to run the storm all the way back to the Philippines or if the ridge to the west will nose in strong enough and fast enough to take it away.  Either way, it remains to be seen whether, given the proximity of the storm to the Philippines in any scenario and that it currently has decent upper level venting to allow for development of convection, if the storms move over the islands in the counter-clockwise flow cause more flooding problems.  The government of the Philippines seem to be better prepared and seems to be ready for any eventuality. 

WDPN33 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING
NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN BEGUN TO FLARE OVER THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA). STRONG VENTING TO
THE NORTHEAST HAS HELPED THE SYSTEM RECUPERATE SOME OF ITS
DEEP CONVECTION LOST NEARLY 24 HOURS AGO FROM THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR GRADIENT IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. THE
STORM HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND REMAINS
IN THE LUZON STRAIT.
3.   FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED BEYOND TAU 72 IN ORDER TO
REFLECT DECREASED CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT
THIS QUASISTATIONARY STATE BEFORE DAY 5. AS IS TYPICAL IN A
WEAK OR AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE MODEL TRACKERS
ARE HANDLING THE SITUATION POORLY.
    B. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OFF THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF LUZON FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THERE ARE STILL SOME
INDICATIONS AMONG THE MODEL FIELDS THAT THE STORM WILL
EVENTUALLY PULL OUT TO THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES OVER SOUTHERN CHINA, BUT
AGAIN, THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY. INTENSIFICATION IS NOT
LIKELY BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND UPWELLING OF COOL, SUB-SURFACE WATER. HOWEVER,
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MENTIONED IN PARA 2.A. THE FORECAST REFLECTS A QUASI-
STATIONARY STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A SOUTHERLY DRIFT.
    C. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY AT DAY 4 AND
BEYOND, FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DECREASED OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT FROM UPWELLING. INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASED
IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD TO REFLECT THE INCREASED LIKLIHOOD
OF THIS SCENARIO. //

WDPN34 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (MELOR) IS CURRENTLY A 135 KNOT
SYSTEM,BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FINAL-T (6.0) AND
CURRENT INTENSITY (7.0) FROM THE PGTW DVORAK FIX. THE SYSTEM
HAS TRACKED FROM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 050600Z TO NORTHWESTWARD
AT 051200Z AND HAS SLOWED BY 2 KNOTS. THE DECREASED TRACK SPEED
AND INCREASED NORTHWARD TURN ARE BOTH PRECURSORS TO RECURVATURE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NEAR THE CAROLINE ISLANDS IN MICRONESIA
HAS BEGUN TO ENCROACH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AS A
RESULT, FAVORABLE VENTING INTO THIS FEATURE HAS CEASED.
UNRELATED, THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS GROWN CONSIDERABLY,
AND THE EYE IS AT ITS LARGEST DIAMETER YET (32NM). MORE
RECENTLY, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED TO
THE NORTHWEST AS THE STY NEARS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
EAST COAST OF ASIA.
3. FORECAST REASONING
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. STY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BEFORE ENCOUNTERING
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NEAR OKINAWA. THE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED TO VENT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AND MAY ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, SHORTLY THEREAFTER, THE TYPHOON WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
DUE TO EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH WILL ALSO ERODE THE
STEERING RIDGE AND INITIATE RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES.
INTERACTION WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY (NEAR 30N) WILL
PROMPT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, JUST TO THE SOUTH OF TOKYO.
THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
CALLS FOR PASSAGE OF MELOR AS A TRANSITIONING CYCLONE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF JAPAN. THE TYPHOON WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY
TAU 72.//

Parma Regaining Strength, Super Typhoon Melor May Threaten Tokyo October 5, 2009

W Pac Color IR Satellite-Click Image for Loop

for an update on Parma and Typhoon Melor CLICK HERE

Parma (pepeng) Forecast Track JTWC

Tropical Storm Parma appears to be on the verge of recovering from the influence of an upper level trof that appeared out of nowhere out of China and dove down to mess up the storm.  So much did it disrupt Parma (pepeng) that it fell from the classification of a typhoon to that of a tropical storm.  Now that the trof is lifting out to the northeast, satellite imagery is indicating perhaps some re-development of convection which would coincide with intensification.  This is not totally unexpected as, even when Parma got zapped, the low level mean circulation remained strongly in tact.  So, as Super Typhoon Melor moves quickly across the Philippine Sea, Parma will drift to the south or southwest.  The official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been consistent for 24 hours for the first time in days, which tells me that their confidence is increasing.  They indicate that most models show a big ridge over China becoming a dominant feature to steer Parma away to the west.  Indeed the US Navy NOGAPS shows depicts exactly that and takes  small, compact storm into Viet Nam. 

GFS 18Z 10.06.09

However, the GFS continues to not play along.  Previously, it was insisting on a track drifting to the south and then southeast around the periphery of Typhoon Melor as it went by to the east.  Now, what it seems to want to do is have Parma more or less get cut off from everything else.  Not influenced by an ridge over China, nor anything else and too far from Melor to be affected except that it drifts south to the northern tip of the Philippines and then it just sits there for a few days.  It tends to feature heavy banding on the backside whacking the western coast of Luzon…which is not good.  As it stands now, at least 15 have been killed by Parma and more rain is expected in Luzon.

NOGAPS 18Z 10.06.09

A couple of things here…first off the JTWC points out that, while they re-intensify Parma to minimal typhoon status in the next 24-36 hours, they mention that upwelling may mess that up and, if it doesn’t and follows thier forecast, then it would run into a sheering environment and cooler water as it approach Viet Nam.  If Parma were to do what the GFS suggests,then upwelling I would think would be a factor and so it may not be a typhoon in that instance.  But, so what…Ketsana wasn’t a typhoon either.  It’s the rain potential that is the fear.

W Pacific Water Vapor Image 230Z 10.05 click image for loop

As for Typhoon Melor (JTWC Discussion) its a super typhoon with winds of 140 kts kicking up gusts to 160 kts.  For those of us in the United States that would be about 160 mph winds with 185 mph gusts or a category 5 hurricane.  It’s still a long way off but the forecast track has shifted some with the big curve to the northeast when it is in the Luzon Strait coming a tad later, which means that the track now takes it right over Tokyo Bay instead of just offshore. 

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track

However, by that time, Melor would have run into an unfavorable upper level environment and it would have weakened to a minimal typhoon.  But, it would have also picked up forward speed.  In this scenario, I would think that the storm would create a storm surge higher than one might associate with a minimal typhoon due to its forward momentum and the fact that it had been such an intense storm prior to passing over Tokyo Bay.  But, were talking about 3 or 4 days out and there are many things that can happen. Intensity forecasts are notoriously difficult to pin down that many days out.

WDPN33 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR
30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, TROPICAL STORM (TS) PARMA HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IN THE
BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE
REMAINED AT A 3.0/4.0. THE FINAL-T NUMBER IS BASED ON THE PATTERN-T,
VICE A WRAP, BECAUSE THE CONVECTION IS TOO WEAK. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO
BECOME LARGELY QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
HAVING ONLY MOVED 30NM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
3.   FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO THE NORTHWEST OF
LUZON IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MILD RE-INTENSIFICATION EXISTS NOW THAT THE TROUGH MENTIONED IN PARA
2.A. HAS PASSED TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER WILL
BEGIN TO STALL INTENSIFICATION OR EVEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TS 19W GIVEN THAT IT
IS IN A WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IF RIDGING BUILDS
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, THEN THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
PULL OUT TO THE SOUTHWEST, AS THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS
INDICATE. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REBUILDS
FASTER (AND STRONGER) THAN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST THEN THAT WILL
BECOME THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR PARMA.
    C. IN THE LATER PERIOD THE SYSTEM SHOULD START TO ACCELERATE
ALONG THE FAVORED TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. 19W
WILL MOVE INTO LOWER AMOUNTS OF FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THIS TRACK AND START TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN.//
NNNN

Typhoon Parma May Not Be Done With Philippines; Typhoon Melor Still To Come October 4, 2009

Typhoon Parma Looking Better Organized at 1730Z Oct 3 2009

for an update on typhoon parma(pepeng) and typhoon melor, CLICK HERE

Typhoon Parma Forecast Track 00Z 10.04.09

While Typhoon Parma made its way through the Philippines, it took out crops and infrastructure and produced damage in some of the towns and cities, but so far only 3 have been reported killed.  Some reports around the world claim that the storm is moving toward Taiwan.  Taiwan has even issued warnings and made evacuations.  But, I’m not so sure that Parma is done with the Philippines.  A look at the Western Pacific Water Vapor Imagery Loop shows appears to show an eye reforming.  The official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been all over the place, indicating that there are lots and lots of variables.  Previously, we’ve seen the long term track toward Taiwan, then to the northeast, then having it become quasi stationary just northwest of Manila, then having it move north-northwest before looping back around in the wake of Typhoon Melor (JTWC Discussion) and out to the northeast. 

GFS 18Z Oct 5 Parma Over Manila

 

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track 00Z 10.04.09

The new forecast reflects the fact that the storm has moved offshore to the north of the island and has been moving west or west northwest very slowly.  The idea is that the storm will meander offshore of the northwestern coast of the Philippines.  The boys at the JTWC acknowledge that the forecast is very difficult and acknowledge that there are other plausible scenarios. Its extremely complicated because there is a typhoon to the east, a storm to the west, a ridge to the north and somewhere in between, there is a trof.  While I have no idea where its going to go, I think that it is entirely possible that the Philippines is not done with Parma.  If you look at the US Navy NOGAPS model, you see that at 18Z Oct 5,the storm is centered just west of Manila…offshore.  That would bring rain to the islands.  The GFS has the storm right over Manila at the same time.  The NOGAPS brings Parma right over the top of Manila at 18Z on the 6th. 

NOGAPS 18Z Oct 5 Parma NW of Philippines

There are other solutions out there but most of them are not too good for the Philippines.  In fact, if the GFS solution verifies, which is probably won’t completely, then Japan would get brushed by Typhoon Melor and then 3 days later get brushed by Typhoon Parma..both running right along the mouth of Tokyo Bay.  But…these storms have not been playing ball and all options remain on the table.

WDPN33 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH OF

NOGAPS 6Z Oct 7 Parma Over Manila

MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER IN THE
STRAIT OF LUZON AND HAS STARTED TO REGAIN ORGANIZATION AS SEEN IN
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. A 032224Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL WITH GOOD STRUCTURE AND AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE OVER
WATER TO THE NORTHWEST OF LUZON. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT WESTWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS IN A RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTER LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3.   FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. THE FORECAST HAS THE STR
OVER SOUTHERN CHINA BECOMING THE PREDOMINATE STEERING INFLUENCE ON
THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 72 AND TRACKING THE 19W INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA.

W. Pacific IR Satellite-Parma and Melor are easily found

    B. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE LUZON
STRAIT AS THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, LOCATED SOUTH OF JAPAN, ERODES
IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAVE TY 19W IN A VERY
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, REMOVED FROM THE INFLUENCES OF THE STR TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN
CHINA. DUE TO THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW, THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 72 AND THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FACILITATE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO UPWELLING OF COOLER
WATER, WHICH IS TYPICAL OF SLOW-MOVING SYSTEMS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 72.  THIS IS
INDICATIVE OF A SYSTEM WITH WEAK STEERING INFLUENCES THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER AIMLESSLY. THE ONLY MODEL THAT DOES NOT SHOW
THIS MOTION IS GFS, WHICH SUPPORTS STRENGTHENING OF THE STR TO THE
EAST AND A SHARP TURN AND ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND TY
20W. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS STILL A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE TRACK,
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING TY
20W FROM THE EAST, BUT BECOMING MORE UNLIKELY AS 19W CONTINUES TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD.
    C. AFTER TAU 72, THE STR OVER CHINA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A ZONAL TROUGH IN THE MIDLATITUDES. AS IT BUILDS, IT
WILL IMPART A WEAK INFLUENCE ON 19W THAT WILL SLOWLY DRAG THE SYSTEM
TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
WEST, AVAILABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECREASE AND NOT BE ABLE TO
SUPPORT A SLOW MOVING TYPHOON, AND INTENSITY WILL START TO SLOWLY
DECREASE IN THE LATE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
AFTER TAU 72 AS TO THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. ECMWF, TCLPS AND
JGSM  TAKE THE SYSTEM ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK AND EGRR AND
GFDN TAKE THE STORM ON A WESTERLY TRACK. NOGAPS KEEPS THE SYSTEM
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.//

Typhoon Parma Beginning Assault on Philippines, Typhoon Melor Eyes Japan October 3, 2009

Two Typhoons In Western Pacific

for updated information on Typhoon Parma’s strike on Philippines, CLICK HERE

Typhoon Parma Forecast Track 00Z 10.03.09

Typhoon Parma is beginning to interact with the landmass of the Philippines.  The Western Pacific Satellite Water Vapor Loop indicates that the dry air that had messed up the Typhoon such that its status as a super typhoon was lost has now passed.  Maximum sustained winds have decreased and so if there is some good news, its that the ferocity of the storm will probably be reduced when it makes landfall early on Saturday.  But, the issue with this storm has always been primarily the rainfall. (see official text and discussion below)  Remember, the flooding from a week ago that killed nearly 300 people was caused by a tropical storm.  Not only will this storm bring heavy rain with landfall, it appears more and more likely that it will almost become stationary as it emerges on the north side of the Philippines.  NASA TRMM satellite indicates Parma is already bringing heavy rains to parts of the Philippines with thunderstorm tops of 8.5 miles with rainfall rates up to over 1.5 inches per hour The forecast for Sunday is pretty much a consensus for this. That would mean that there will be a tropical storm or typhoon sitting just offshore bringing a flow off of the South China Sea into the northern half of the Philippines for a reasonably extended period of time. The mountainous regions of the country will do nothing but enhance rainfall rates and accumulations.  After 48 hours, there is no consensus.  The Philippines government is doing the best it can to prepare for the assault of Typhoon Parma on Saturday.

NASA enhanced IR 23:15Z 10.02.09

There is one scenario in which the storm moves west across the South China Sea toward Vietnam.  There is another that a trof passing to the north may pick it up and move it northeast.  Two other scenarios has Typhoon Melor moving past to the East and heading toward Japan and in its wake, the storm moves northeast.  Still another is potentially awful which would be for Melor’s structure to be large enough to interact with Parma.  That would have Parma get forced back to the southeast for a time…or possibly back over the Philippines if it is still situtated to the northwest of the islands when that happened.  After that southeast movement, then it would get shot out to the northeast.  I call this a pinwheel situation, though I believe its more officially known as a binary interaction.  When two tropical cyclones get close to one another, they can’t merge but they will rotate around each other with the flow of each storm.

Pacific Satellite 00:15Z 10.03.09

The official forecast for Typhoon Melor (warning text)  is a little better as previously it had been forecast to be a super typhoon with winds gusting to 190 mph as it approached Tokyo.  But, the dry air that messed up Parma for a short time has moved east and has affected Melor.  As it stands, the latest forecast track of Typhoon Melor no longer has it actually striking Tokyo but instead brushing just offshore of the largest Japanese city with winds of about 125 kts gusting to 150 kts.  A 140 mph typhoon just off the entrance to Tokyo bay would be no picnic but I suppose its better than a direct hit from a super typhoon.  I would say that the Melor forecast 5 days out is very problematic and Tokyo or even all of Japan is not out of danger as there will be so many variables, including if/how it intereacts with Parma.  I could draw up a scenario that an interaction with Parma makes it worse for the Philippines and also bad for Japan.  But, it’s going to do what its going to do. 

Either way, its been a tough week for the Western Pacific and looks to be rough for  the week ahead.

WTPN33 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/

12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA), HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AS CONVECTIVE
BANDS ALONG ITS WESTERN FLANK CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE CENTRAL
PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM REMAINS AN INTENSE TYPHOON, WITH SATELLITE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 KTS (PGTW) TO 105 KTS
(RJTD). THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD, ALBEIT
PROGRESSIVELY SLOWER, TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72. DURING THIS PERIOD,
IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAIN RANGE
ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON. BY TAU 72, IT WILL CROSS INTO THE
LUZON STRAIT AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH TWO DISTINCT SOLUTIONS
PRESENTED. THE SOLUTION SLIGHTLY FAVORED BY THIS FORECAST IS
REPRESENTED BY NGPS, EGRR, GFDN, JGSM AND THE EXTENDED FIELDS FOR
ECMWF, SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE
OTHER SOLUTION REPRESENTED BY WBAR, GFS AND TCLAPS, SHOWS A
RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST WITHOUT LANDFALL ON LUZON.
    C. BEYOND TAU 72, TYPHOON PARMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
PLACES THE SYSTEM INTO A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK
WITH GFS, TCLAPS AND WBAR STEERING THE VORTEX SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PACK TOWARDS THE WEST. THIS FORECAST GOES
WITH THE WESTWARD SOLUTION ALBEIT AT A MUCH SLOWER PACE. THE
EXTENDED FIELDS FOR ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA BEFORE RECURVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 120. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE REMAINS A
LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TY 19W. THE
FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE PRESENCE OF TY 20W TO THE EAST. THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT CURRENTLY INDICATE A DIRECT
INTERACTION BETWEEN TY 19W AND TY 20W, THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
MODEL. THE GFS MODEL RECURVES TY 19W SHARPLY AFTER TAU 72, AND
MERGES TY 19W INTO THE CIRCULATION OF TY 20W AFTER TAU 96. THIS
INTERACTION IS FACILITATED BY THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WHICH (IN THE
OTHER MODEL FIELDS) CAUSES THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT SEEN IN THE OTHER MODELS. THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND TAU 48 IS LARGE, WITH LARGE VARIATIONS
IN NUMERICAL VORTEX TRACKERS OCCURRING FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN.
THERE IS A ROUGHLY EVEN CHANCE FOR TY 19W TO TURN MORE WESTWARD INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA OR TO RECURVE AND INTERACT WITH TY 20W IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.//

REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 122.5E. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF LUZON,
PHILIPPINES AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS
BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER WATER IN THE LUZON STRAIT. THE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY TURN TO THE EAST FROM TAU 12 THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES WEAK. 19W WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS AND
INCREASES THE STEERING FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IMPROVING OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK HAS INCREASED
ACCORDINGLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 022   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    —
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z — NEAR 17.4N 122.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 122.9E
    —
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z — 18.5N 121.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
    —
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z — 18.9N 121.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
    —
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z — 19.4N 120.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
    —
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z — 20.1N 120.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
    —
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z — 20.9N 121.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
    —
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5… AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    —
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z — 21.5N 123.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 07 KTS
    —
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z — 21.9N 126.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

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