Click on Image for most recent W. Pacific IR Loop
See latest storm info and story on rising death toll from Typhoon Parma-over 100 dead in Philippines CLICK HERE
Typhoon Melor Forecast Track
Typhoon Melor crossed the Japanese Island of Honshu relatively quickly but still brought very heavy rain and gusty winds. At least three people lost their lives as a result of Typhoon Melor. The forecast track for Typhoon Melor was pretty much on the money with a landfall early Thursday morning with winds topping at 139 kmh or 86 mph south of Nagoya, Japan. The wave heights were some 9 meters, or 30 feet. The Typhoon Melor prognastic reasoning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been consistent with the idea that the storm will quickly transform from a tropical cyclone into an extra-tropical storm as it continues to race to the northeast. Due to its rapid movement, the effects of the storm will subside across Japan by the end of the day. It’s moving so rapidly that the JTWC has issued its final warning for Typhoon Melor. Commuter train service was haulted Thursday morning in Tokyo but will be restored by the afternoon rush hour. Toyota shut down plants for the day but operations should resume quickly. Shipping interests also will be returning to normal as the seas begin to subside. Hokkaido will feel the effects of Melor will persist even though its losing its tropical characteristics because the structure will not change the windy and heavy rain aspects of the storm.
Parma Forecast Track
Meanwhile, to the south, the remnant of Typhoon Parma (JTWC discussion) remains parked over the northern Philippines. Early Thursday morning, convection began to explode over parts of the island as the storm center had drifted just off the northeastern coast of the nation. Wednesday had been relatively benign an clean up operations began from Tropical Storm Ketsana over a week ago. The heavy rain produced by now Tropical Depression Parma brought more landslides that killed at least 6 more people, including a man who was doing clean up work and also several small children who were buried in their homes. The storm is expected to continue to linger over the Philippines throughout the day before it moves to the west and finally away from the drenched nation on Friday. Thereafter, it should regain some strength as it moves toward Vietnam, which also suffered from flooding and deaths due to Tropical Storm Ketsana.
Depression 21 Forecast Track
Meanwhile, if you look at the color enhanced infrared satellite loop above, you will notice two other areas of interest to the east-southeast of the Philippines that appear to be candidates for development. The largest of the two is to the east of the Philippines and is showing up quite prominently on the satellite loop. It has been designated Depression 21 and is forecast to have some development but the forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggests a more northward movement and it is not expected to affect land at this time. However, to its south and east is another system that looks suspicious to me. I’m sure the JTWC will begin issuing reports on it over the next 48-72 hours.
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Parma(pepeng) Satellite Image 1130Z 1006 Still looks rather impressive
For a more recent update on Typhoon Melor as it makes landfall in Japan and Parma still in the Philippines, CLICK HERE
Water Vapor Image 2030Z 10.06 click image for latest loop
The tropical storm formally known as Typhoon Parma has followed the general track that I outlined several days ago. The satellite image above shows that the storm still has a very impressive structure considering that it has spent much time of cooling, upwelling waters and has not been completely over the water for some time. The satellite water vapor image and loop is not overly impressive as the storm center is now over land in the Luzon province of the Philippines. This recent news report says its not over the Philippines and won’t make landfall, but the satellite says otherwise. So far, Parma has taken 22 Filipino lives. A ship sank in the rough South China Sea, courtesy of Parma You can detect some convection that shows up a little better on the Infrared color satellite image above.
Click Image for Most Recent Color IR Loop
Parma has reacted as I suggested that it might a few days ago and as the GFS model has been consistently suggesting over time. The NOGAPS also came around to that way of thinking but the official forecast from the JTWC did not reflect this potential in its official forecast until this morning, though they did make mention of it in their discussion. While Parma is located over the Philippines, the threat of heavy rains will persist. Parma dropped very heavy rain in the southern portions of Taiwan and the mountainous regions of the Philippines will be under the threat of landslides until the storm gets picked up by an expanding ridge in China which will take the storm to the west back into the South China Sea. A note for those of you in Southeast Asia: The Joint Typhoon Warning Center discussion below indicates that the environment in the South China Sea will be conducive to re-intensification as Parma moves westward toward mainland Asia.
Parma(pepeng)Forecast Track 18Z 10.06 click image for latest update
W Pac Infrared Satellite 2030Z 10.06 click image for latest loop
Typhoon Melor continues to progress as forecast. The slight interaction with Parma that caused Parma to slide farther south and southeast back to the Philippines resulted in a slight northwestward hitch in the path of Melor as it moved across the northwestern Philippines Sea. The result of this is that the curving of motion took place farther west than earlier anticipated and the northeastward track has now set the stage for the Typhoon to run up the largest Japanese Island of Honshu and eventually close to Tokyo. However, as the storm rounds the edge of the ridge of high pressure that is steering it, Melor starts to get sheered by unfavorable upper level winds. The latest satellite imagery indicates this deterioration has already begun. As it accelerates northeast, it will encounter land after landfall south of Kyoto, Japan and continue to interact with the Japanese mainland and come into a hostile environment as it begins to transition into an extra-tropical cyclone. The fact that it will be going through a deterioration stage will mean only minimal typhoon strength winds as it goes across Japan and the fact that it will be increasing in forward speed will limit its rainfall potential. Nevertheless, the Japanesese topography should enhance the rainfall potential, particularly on the eastern slopes of the mountains and so heavy rain is likely only the eastern third of Japan.
Typhoon Melor 1130Z 1006 Losing Some Symmetry
WDPN34 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR) HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS THOUGH RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO ERODE IN THE
NORTHWESTWERN QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES
THAT POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AS TY MELOR IS CRESTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON DIVORAK FIXES
Typhoon Melor Forecast Track 18Z 10.06 click on image for latest update
BY PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. IN ADDITION, THE SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE
WAS 113 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY MELOR WILL CREST THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WILL START TO ACCELERATE
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS, TY MELOR WILL START TO ENCOUNTER MORE UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF KYOTO, JAPAN.
ADDITIONALLY, MELOR WILL START TO ENGAGE WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AROUND TAU 24 AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48.
THE MODEL AIDS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A LANDFALL SCENARIO WEST
OF TOKYO, JAPAN. HOWEVER, THE UKMO TRACKER, EGGR, IS THE EASTERN
OUTLIER AS IT TRACKS THE SYSTEM OVER TOKYO, JAPAN. THIS FORECAST DOES
NOT TAKE MELOR AS FAR EAST AS THE EGRR TRACKER, THOUGH IT DOES TRACK
CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS.//
Posted in Bob Symon, News, Opinion, Science, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, Weather | Tagged: Asia, Disaster, Infrared Satellite Typhoon, Japan, Japan Typhoon Melor, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Meteorology, Pacific Satellite composite, Philippines, Philippines Typhoon Parma, Ship Sinking Parma, Super Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Melor Forecast Track, Typhoon Melor Japan, Typhoon Melor Satellite, Typhoon Parma, Typhoon Parma deaths, Typhoon Parma Discussion, Typhoon Parma Forecast Track, Typhoon Parma Satellite, Typhoon Parma Satellite Loop, Typhoon Parma Stats, Typhoon Parma Water Vapor Loop, Typhoon Pepeng, Typhoons, Western Pacific IR Satellite, Western Pacific Satellite Loop, Western Pacific Water Vapor Image, World News | 4 Comments »
W Pacific color IR 2330Z 10.05.09 (click image for loop)
for a more recent update on Parma (pepeng) and Typhoon Melor, CLICK HERE
Parma Forecast Track JTWC
The former Typhoon Parma forecast track (JTWC discussion below) is getting uncomfortably close to Luzon in the Philippines. Basically what is happening is that the powerful Super Typhoon Melor (JTWC discussion below) is racing west-northwestward across the Philippines Sea and its substantial flow is taking the drifting Tropical Storm Parma back south from the same direction that it came. Melor is being affected a little by this binary interaction with Parma and is now forecast to move a little more northwest prior to its shift in direction. Typhoon Melor gets caught up in a strong southwesterly flow and it shoots to the northeast and begins to get sheared in the process. That would weaken Melor as it moves up along the western coast of Japan, though the most recent forecast tracks have been consistently running the storm either across Tokyo Bay or just at the entrance to Tokyo Bay. However, this latest forecast track has the storm swinging farther west(due to Parma) and therefore the northeastern track has Melor streaking inland over the top of Tokyo itself. It remains to be seen if that track comes about but Melor is expected to be a minimum typhoon at that time. I suspect since it had been so formidable and because of its forward momentum, it will probably have a higher storm surge than what might normally be expected with a weakening typhoon that is transitioning to extra-tropical status. On the other hand, its quick pace would also mean that the threat for extreme rainfall in Japan may be reduced.
Typhoon Melor Forecast Track JTWC
As for Parma, the forecast suggests that the storm does not strengthen as it moves back south or south-southeast because its moving very slowly back over water that is already been churned up. That would mean that essentially the warm water on the surface has been blown around and cooler water from below has come up to take its place. Its called upwelling and is why a tropical cyclone needs to stay on the move if its going to survive. Nevertheless, the issue with the Philippines and particularly the area around Manila, is rainfall and just because the intensity decreases doesn’t mean that heavy rains are not possible. Remember, Ketsana was just a tropical storm and flooding from it killed nearly 300 people and some 200 more in Southeast Asia. Now the boys at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center do kick the storm out to the west before it comes back across the Philippines but it may be close enough to cause problems. In the meantime, the forecast calls for an increase in intensity as it kicks west and that could mean problems down the road for the same parts of Southeast Asia, namely Vietnam, that also had trouble with Ketsana.
Mon 18Z NOGAPS valid 00Z Wed
Mon 12Z GFS valid 00Z Wed
Here is what is troubling. I only have access to the 12Z run of the GFS and the 18Z run of the NOGAPS. Previously, it was the GFS that kept on wanting to take Parma back over the Philippines, most notably right over Manila. Now, Parma is kinda stuck between a ridge to the west and ridge to the east. Its got nothing to steer it except the little bit of influence south by Melor. The thinking is that the ridge to the west will be dominant and take Parma west. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center seems to be discounting the GFS and NOGAPS as indicated by this sentence in their discussion: “The available numeric guidance are in wide disagreement with the GFS and NOGAPS attempting an eventual turn to the Northeast and the European and EGRR and ECMWF favoring and eventual westerly track into the South China Sea.” My concern is that the GFS has been consistent in wanting to bring the storm back over the Philippines one way or another.
Mon 18Z NOGAPS valid 00Z Thu
Mon 12Z GFS valid 00z Thu
Now, the NOGAPS has jumped on board with that thinking, at least for this model run. This storm has been exteremly difficult to track due to so many variable influences and the fact that its kinda gotten stuck in no man’s land without strong steering guidance. In my view, it is still beyond human capabilities to make any definitive statement concerning the ultimate fate in relation to Parma. I think its safe to say that rain will continue to fall over Luzon, whether or not its intense heavy rain over an extended period of time remains to be seen and we’ll just have to wait and see whether the influence of Melor will be sufficient to run the storm all the way back to the Philippines or if the ridge to the west will nose in strong enough and fast enough to take it away. Either way, it remains to be seen whether, given the proximity of the storm to the Philippines in any scenario and that it currently has decent upper level venting to allow for development of convection, if the storms move over the islands in the counter-clockwise flow cause more flooding problems. The government of the Philippines seem to be better prepared and seems to be ready for any eventuality.
WDPN33 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING
NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN BEGUN TO FLARE OVER THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA). STRONG VENTING TO
THE NORTHEAST HAS HELPED THE SYSTEM RECUPERATE SOME OF ITS
DEEP CONVECTION LOST NEARLY 24 HOURS AGO FROM THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR GRADIENT IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. THE
STORM HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND REMAINS
IN THE LUZON STRAIT.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED BEYOND TAU 72 IN ORDER TO
REFLECT DECREASED CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT
THIS QUASISTATIONARY STATE BEFORE DAY 5. AS IS TYPICAL IN A
WEAK OR AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE MODEL TRACKERS
ARE HANDLING THE SITUATION POORLY.
B. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OFF THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF LUZON FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THERE ARE STILL SOME
INDICATIONS AMONG THE MODEL FIELDS THAT THE STORM WILL
EVENTUALLY PULL OUT TO THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES OVER SOUTHERN CHINA, BUT
AGAIN, THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY. INTENSIFICATION IS NOT
LIKELY BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND UPWELLING OF COOL, SUB-SURFACE WATER. HOWEVER,
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MENTIONED IN PARA 2.A. THE FORECAST REFLECTS A QUASI-
STATIONARY STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A SOUTHERLY DRIFT.
C. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY AT DAY 4 AND
BEYOND, FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DECREASED OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT FROM UPWELLING. INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASED
IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD TO REFLECT THE INCREASED LIKLIHOOD
OF THIS SCENARIO. //
WDPN34 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (MELOR) IS CURRENTLY A 135 KNOT
SYSTEM,BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FINAL-T (6.0) AND
CURRENT INTENSITY (7.0) FROM THE PGTW DVORAK FIX. THE SYSTEM
HAS TRACKED FROM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 050600Z TO NORTHWESTWARD
AT 051200Z AND HAS SLOWED BY 2 KNOTS. THE DECREASED TRACK SPEED
AND INCREASED NORTHWARD TURN ARE BOTH PRECURSORS TO RECURVATURE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NEAR THE CAROLINE ISLANDS IN MICRONESIA
HAS BEGUN TO ENCROACH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AS A
RESULT, FAVORABLE VENTING INTO THIS FEATURE HAS CEASED.
UNRELATED, THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS GROWN CONSIDERABLY,
AND THE EYE IS AT ITS LARGEST DIAMETER YET (32NM). MORE
RECENTLY, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED TO
THE NORTHWEST AS THE STY NEARS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
EAST COAST OF ASIA.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. STY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BEFORE ENCOUNTERING
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NEAR OKINAWA. THE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED TO VENT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AND MAY ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, SHORTLY THEREAFTER, THE TYPHOON WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
DUE TO EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH WILL ALSO ERODE THE
STEERING RIDGE AND INITIATE RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES.
INTERACTION WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY (NEAR 30N) WILL
PROMPT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, JUST TO THE SOUTH OF TOKYO.
THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
CALLS FOR PASSAGE OF MELOR AS A TRANSITIONING CYCLONE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF JAPAN. THE TYPHOON WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY
TAU 72.//
Posted in Bob Symon, News, Opinion, Science, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, Weather | Tagged: GFS, Japan, Japan Typhoon Melor, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, NOGAPS, Pacific Satellite composite, Philippines, Philippines Typhoon Parma, Super Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Melor Forecast Track, Typhoon Melor Japan, Typhoon Melor Satellite, Typhoon Melor Tokyo, Typhoon Parma Discussion, Typhoon Parma Forecast Track, Typhoon Parma Satellite, Typhoon Parma Satellite Loop, Typhoon Parma Stats, Typhoon Pepeng, Western Pacific IR Satellite, Western Pacific Satellite Loop, Western Pacific Water Vapor Image, World News | 6 Comments »
W Pac Color IR Satellite-Click Image for Loop
for an update on Parma and Typhoon Melor CLICK HERE
Parma (pepeng) Forecast Track JTWC
Tropical Storm Parma appears to be on the verge of recovering from the influence of an upper level trof that appeared out of nowhere out of China and dove down to mess up the storm. So much did it disrupt Parma (pepeng) that it fell from the classification of a typhoon to that of a tropical storm. Now that the trof is lifting out to the northeast, satellite imagery is indicating perhaps some re-development of convection which would coincide with intensification. This is not totally unexpected as, even when Parma got zapped, the low level mean circulation remained strongly in tact. So, as Super Typhoon Melor moves quickly across the Philippine Sea, Parma will drift to the south or southwest. The official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been consistent for 24 hours for the first time in days, which tells me that their confidence is increasing. They indicate that most models show a big ridge over China becoming a dominant feature to steer Parma away to the west. Indeed the US Navy NOGAPS shows depicts exactly that and takes small, compact storm into Viet Nam.
GFS 18Z 10.06.09
However, the GFS continues to not play along. Previously, it was insisting on a track drifting to the south and then southeast around the periphery of Typhoon Melor as it went by to the east. Now, what it seems to want to do is have Parma more or less get cut off from everything else. Not influenced by an ridge over China, nor anything else and too far from Melor to be affected except that it drifts south to the northern tip of the Philippines and then it just sits there for a few days. It tends to feature heavy banding on the backside whacking the western coast of Luzon…which is not good. As it stands now, at least 15 have been killed by Parma and more rain is expected in Luzon.
NOGAPS 18Z 10.06.09
A couple of things here…first off the JTWC points out that, while they re-intensify Parma to minimal typhoon status in the next 24-36 hours, they mention that upwelling may mess that up and, if it doesn’t and follows thier forecast, then it would run into a sheering environment and cooler water as it approach Viet Nam. If Parma were to do what the GFS suggests,then upwelling I would think would be a factor and so it may not be a typhoon in that instance. But, so what…Ketsana wasn’t a typhoon either. It’s the rain potential that is the fear.
W Pacific Water Vapor Image 230Z 10.05 click image for loop
As for Typhoon Melor (JTWC Discussion) its a super typhoon with winds of 140 kts kicking up gusts to 160 kts. For those of us in the United States that would be about 160 mph winds with 185 mph gusts or a category 5 hurricane. It’s still a long way off but the forecast track has shifted some with the big curve to the northeast when it is in the Luzon Strait coming a tad later, which means that the track now takes it right over Tokyo Bay instead of just offshore.
Typhoon Melor Forecast Track
However, by that time, Melor would have run into an unfavorable upper level environment and it would have weakened to a minimal typhoon. But, it would have also picked up forward speed. In this scenario, I would think that the storm would create a storm surge higher than one might associate with a minimal typhoon due to its forward momentum and the fact that it had been such an intense storm prior to passing over Tokyo Bay. But, were talking about 3 or 4 days out and there are many things that can happen. Intensity forecasts are notoriously difficult to pin down that many days out.
WDPN33 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR
30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, TROPICAL STORM (TS) PARMA HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IN THE
BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE
REMAINED AT A 3.0/4.0. THE FINAL-T NUMBER IS BASED ON THE PATTERN-T,
VICE A WRAP, BECAUSE THE CONVECTION IS TOO WEAK. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO
BECOME LARGELY QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
HAVING ONLY MOVED 30NM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO THE NORTHWEST OF
LUZON IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MILD RE-INTENSIFICATION EXISTS NOW THAT THE TROUGH MENTIONED IN PARA
2.A. HAS PASSED TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER WILL
BEGIN TO STALL INTENSIFICATION OR EVEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TS 19W GIVEN THAT IT
IS IN A WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IF RIDGING BUILDS
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, THEN THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
PULL OUT TO THE SOUTHWEST, AS THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS
INDICATE. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REBUILDS
FASTER (AND STRONGER) THAN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST THEN THAT WILL
BECOME THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR PARMA.
C. IN THE LATER PERIOD THE SYSTEM SHOULD START TO ACCELERATE
ALONG THE FAVORED TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. 19W
WILL MOVE INTO LOWER AMOUNTS OF FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THIS TRACK AND START TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN.//
NNNN
Posted in Bob Symon, News, Opinion, Science, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, Weather | Tagged: Asia, Disaster, Japan, Japan Typhoon Melor, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pacific Satellite composite, Philippines, Philippines Typhoon Parma, Super Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Melor Forecast Track, Typhoon Melor Japan, Typhoon Melor Satellite, Typhoon Parma, Typhoon Parma deaths, Typhoon Parma Discussion, Typhoon Parma Forecast Track, Typhoon Parma Satellite, Typhoon Parma Satellite Loop, Typhoon Parma Stats, Typhoon Parma Water Vapor Loop, Typhoon Pepeng, Western Pacific IR Satellite, Western Pacific Satellite Loop, Western Pacific Water Vapor Image, World News | 2 Comments »
Western Pacific Color IR 1730Z 10.04.09
For a more recent update on Parma and Typhoon Melor CLICK HERE
Parma JTWC Forecast Track
Typhoon Parma forecasting continues to be a daunting task. More than a day ago, I told you of the prospects of the storm potentially coming back toward the Philippines in reaction to Typhoon Melor (JTWC warning/discussion text) passing by to the east. I suspect that the forecasters knew this too but they were trying not to alarm the populus until more descernable evidence showed up. Now, the media has finally gotten clued into the possibility. “It is possible that it (Parma) will make U-turn and will hit Luzon again,” said forecaster Nathaniel Cruz. I mentioned that a couple of days ago. I want to emphasize that its just a possibility at this point. So far, the storm has not been handled well consistently by any model and the official forecasts have been all over the place. But, the potential for a return visit remains on the table.
W. Pacific Water Vapor Image/Loop
Those are ifs and buts so lets look at whats really going on. A trof emerged out of China and dove down toward Parma. That has done some damge to the storm sufficiently weakening to to Tropical Storm status. That is good news. Bad news is that it still has pretty good looking circulation. The satellite imagery shows just how much the storm has eroded. Northern convection is almost absent and an eye is tough to find. As long as it keeps that circulation, once the trof moves by, then it could start to regain intensity…BUT…if it does stay pretty much quasi-stationary…or generally in the same spot, what will happen is that the warm water on the ocean surface gets washed around and colder water below comes to the surface to take its place. This is called upwelling and a tropical cyclone cannot stay in one place for long and expect to live because cold water will come to the surface and it needs water temperatures of at least 26.5 degrees C to survive. So, will it stay in one place? The fate of Tropical Storm Parma may fall to Super Typhoon Melor.
Typhoon Melor JTWC Forecast Track
How these two storms are related is as follows. Typhoon Melor is a very well developed Super Typhoon. Its forecast track takes it across the Philippine Sea and swings all the way to the eastern Luzon Strait. It has a counter-clockwise flow. Now, Typhoon Parma is meandering in the northeastern South China Sea or the western Luzon Strait. As the two storms get close, the flow around Melor will tend to send Parma down to the south. Meanwhile, the flow around Parma may swing Melor a bit more northwest. But, Melor is the dominant storm and has much greater forward momentum so the effects of Parma on it would be less distinct though it may be significant enough to swing Melor closer to Japan than might otherwise happen. Japan is going to at least be affected by the western edge of Melor. Meanwhile, the big question with Parma will be if the flow around Melor is strong enough and lasts long enough to swing Parma south and then southeast back toward the Philippines, which could be catastrophic because in all liklihood, this would take it back over Manila. But, several of the models want to bring the storm back south and then west…as Melor moves quickly to the northeast, Parma gets slung out before it comes back around to the Philippines and instead moves southwest and then west toward Vietnam, which isn’t good for them either because they too had great affect from last week’s Tropical Storm Ketsana. The variables remain great and so the confidence in the longer term forecast remains questionable. See the 15Z Forecast Discussion/Prognastic reasoning for Parma at the bottom of the post.
W Pacific IR Satellite Loop
I’ve had some queries regarding how to track Typhoon Parma and Typhoon Melor. If you click on this link for the Western Pacific Water Vapor Image Loop, you will get the most recent imagery and it will provide the best viewing of the eye for either storm if it exists. If you click on the maps of the forecast track for either storm, the most recent update of the forecast track and the most recent position will also appear. We kinda take this satellite stuff for granted nowadays, but the ability to track tropical cyclones really hasn’t been around too long. The first storm tracked using satellite imagery was Hurricane Camille in August 1969. It just happened that that storm developed rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico from a long lived tropical storm into a hurricane with winds of up to 200 mph. The forecast was difficult but with the satellite technology available, the forecasters were able to improve their ability and perhaps many lives were spared with an advanced warning that they may not have otherwise have had. You can find the history of the origin of man-made space satellites below…
On This Date In History: Speaking of satellites…on this date in 1957, many Americans were quaking in their boots. The Soviet Union launched Sputnik, the first artificial satellite. It was a small metal sphere with a few antennae sticking out. It weighed about 157 pounds and emitted a radio beeping sound heard by millions around the earth as news readers announced the feat. The frightful thing about the development in many Americans’ minds was that the Soviets had proven they could launch an intercontinental ballistic missile. If they could deliver a metal sphere into space, then it was plausible they could deliver an atomic warhead into Uncle Sam’s back yard. Sputnik came to be known as a “baby moon” because, like the moon, it was a satellite of the earth and both had spherical shapes. That led many Americans to fear that the Soviets would gain a strategic edge in outer space development….perhaps build space platforms or a base on the moon from which they could make sneak attacks on the USA by dropping bombs from above. There’s a great line from The Right Stuff in which Lyndon Johnson says, “I for one do not intend to go to bed at night by the light of a communist moon!” The US Army launched Explorer I on January 31, 1958 as Americas first artificial satellite.
Today's Weather Satellites are descendents of Sputnik
The Eisenhower Administration decided it was time to get serious and so on October 1, 1958 the President announced the creation of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to bring all space efforts under one umbrella. President Kennedy made it a national goal to put a man on the moon by the end of the 1960′s. He made no mention of it but most Americans thought the idea was to beat the Soviets to the moon. We did and that was that….we also got Tang, Teflon, mini-computers, microwave ovens and other things but not Velcro. That was invented by a Swiss Mountain climber in the 1940′s and 1950′s…it took him a while to develop it. I think he got his inspiration from his dog getting grass burrs in his coat following a mountain walk.
Louisville Weather Bottom Line: Previously, it appeared that a warm front would be lifted our way on Monday and increase rain chances then. There had been some notion that would happen. The GFS had been most bullish on this solution but its taken it off the board. The Canadian Model has short waves to the south but moves them east instead of into the Ohio Valley. So, Monday will have a mix of clouds and sun with rain chances increasing on Tuesday as a warm front/cold front combo works its way through. So, look for rain Tuesday, maybe some t’storms. Rain chances will carry into Tuesday night and then reinforcing cool air coming in for the rest of the week. The cool pattern appears to be interested in sticking around for at least another 10 days.
WDPN33 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) PARMA HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. A FAIRLY NEW UPPER LEVEL FEATURE (SHORTWAVE TROUGH) APPEARS
TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAPID DEPLETION OF PARMA’S DEEP
CONVECTION. THE TROUGH ORIGINATED OVER CENTRAL CHINA AND HAS SINCE
CONTINUED TO DIG EQUATORWARD. SKEW-T SOUNDINGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CHINA INDICATE THE TROUGH EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTH AS 23.5N,
LESS THAN 4 DEGREES SHY OF PARMA’S LATITUDE. A VERY TIGHT SHEAR
GRADIENT, AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS, ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH, CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE CURRENT VOID OF
DEEP CONVECTION A STRONG SURFACE CIRCULATION REMAINS. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE FALLEN TO A 3.0/4.0. THE FINAL-T NUMBER IS
BASED ON THE PATTERN-T, VICE A WRAP, BECAUSE THE CONVECTION IS TOO
WEAK. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO GENERALLY TRACKED FROM NORTHWESTWARD TO
MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM BECAUSE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DROPPED BELOW 65 KNOTS.
B. THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO THE NORTHEAST OF
LUZON IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
REINTENSIFICATION EXISTS ONCE THE TROUGH MENTIONED IN PARA 2.A.
PASSES TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER WILL BEGIN TO
STALL INTENSIFICATION OR EVEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROUGH MAY STRIP THE CIRCULATION OF SO
MUCH CONVECTION THAT IT IS UNABLE TO REBOUND BEFORE UPWELLING BEGINS
TO CUT OFF INTENSIFICATION ALL TOGETHER. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TS 19W GIVEN THAT IT IS IN A WEAK AND
ILL-DEFINED STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IF RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM, THEN STORM WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE
SOUTHWEST, AS THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS INDICATE. ON THE
OTHER HAND, IF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REBUILDS FASTER (AND STRONGER)
THAN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST THEN THAT WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM FOR PARMA. THERE IS ALSO THE EXPECTATION THAT IF
THE STORM IS UNABLE TO REACQUIRE DEEP CONVECTION, THE TRACKERS WILL
INITIALIZE A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH ERRONEOUS TRACK SOLUTIONS.
C. THERE IS NO STRONG INDICATION, THAT BEYOND DAY 4, THE CYCLONE
WILL BEGIN TO BE PICKED UP BY ANY RIDGING/FLOW SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
GUIDE IT OUT OF THIS QUASISTATIONARY STATE. AS SUCH, THE FORECAST
REMAINS SLOW, BUT NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.
Posted in Bob Symon, Culture, History, Louisville Forecast, Louisville Weather, movies, News, Opinion, Science, This Date In History, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, Weather | Tagged: baby moon, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, NASA, satellite history, soviet union space, space race, Sputnik, Sputnik I, Super Typhoon Melor, The Right Stuff, Tropical Storm Parma, Tropical Storm Parma forecast, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Melor forecast, Typhoon Melor Forecast Track, Typhoon Melor Satellite, Typhoon Melor track, Typhoon Parma, Typhoon Parma Forecast, Typhoon Parma Forecast Track, Typhoon Parma Satellite, Typhoon Parma track, Typhoon Pepeng, Western Pacific Satellite Loop | 2 Comments »
Typhoon Parma Looking Better Organized at 1730Z Oct 3 2009
for an update on typhoon parma(pepeng) and typhoon melor, CLICK HERE
Typhoon Parma Forecast Track 00Z 10.04.09
While Typhoon Parma made its way through the Philippines, it took out crops and infrastructure and produced damage in some of the towns and cities, but so far only 3 have been reported killed. Some reports around the world claim that the storm is moving toward Taiwan. Taiwan has even issued warnings and made evacuations. But, I’m not so sure that Parma is done with the Philippines. A look at the Western Pacific Water Vapor Imagery Loop shows appears to show an eye reforming. The official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been all over the place, indicating that there are lots and lots of variables. Previously, we’ve seen the long term track toward Taiwan, then to the northeast, then having it become quasi stationary just northwest of Manila, then having it move north-northwest before looping back around in the wake of Typhoon Melor (JTWC Discussion) and out to the northeast.
GFS 18Z Oct 5 Parma Over Manila
Typhoon Melor Forecast Track 00Z 10.04.09
The new forecast reflects the fact that the storm has moved offshore to the north of the island and has been moving west or west northwest very slowly. The idea is that the storm will meander offshore of the northwestern coast of the Philippines. The boys at the JTWC acknowledge that the forecast is very difficult and acknowledge that there are other plausible scenarios. Its extremely complicated because there is a typhoon to the east, a storm to the west, a ridge to the north and somewhere in between, there is a trof. While I have no idea where its going to go, I think that it is entirely possible that the Philippines is not done with Parma. If you look at the US Navy NOGAPS model, you see that at 18Z Oct 5,the storm is centered just west of Manila…offshore. That would bring rain to the islands. The GFS has the storm right over Manila at the same time. The NOGAPS brings Parma right over the top of Manila at 18Z on the 6th.
NOGAPS 18Z Oct 5 Parma NW of Philippines
There are other solutions out there but most of them are not too good for the Philippines. In fact, if the GFS solution verifies, which is probably won’t completely, then Japan would get brushed by Typhoon Melor and then 3 days later get brushed by Typhoon Parma..both running right along the mouth of Tokyo Bay. But…these storms have not been playing ball and all options remain on the table.
WDPN33 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH OF
NOGAPS 6Z Oct 7 Parma Over Manila
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER IN THE
STRAIT OF LUZON AND HAS STARTED TO REGAIN ORGANIZATION AS SEEN IN
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. A 032224Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL WITH GOOD STRUCTURE AND AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE OVER
WATER TO THE NORTHWEST OF LUZON. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT WESTWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS IN A RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTER LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. THE FORECAST HAS THE STR
OVER SOUTHERN CHINA BECOMING THE PREDOMINATE STEERING INFLUENCE ON
THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 72 AND TRACKING THE 19W INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA.
W. Pacific IR Satellite-Parma and Melor are easily found
B. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE LUZON
STRAIT AS THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, LOCATED SOUTH OF JAPAN, ERODES
IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAVE TY 19W IN A VERY
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, REMOVED FROM THE INFLUENCES OF THE STR TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN
CHINA. DUE TO THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW, THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 72 AND THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FACILITATE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO UPWELLING OF COOLER
WATER, WHICH IS TYPICAL OF SLOW-MOVING SYSTEMS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 72. THIS IS
INDICATIVE OF A SYSTEM WITH WEAK STEERING INFLUENCES THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER AIMLESSLY. THE ONLY MODEL THAT DOES NOT SHOW
THIS MOTION IS GFS, WHICH SUPPORTS STRENGTHENING OF THE STR TO THE
EAST AND A SHARP TURN AND ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND TY
20W. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS STILL A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE TRACK,
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING TY
20W FROM THE EAST, BUT BECOMING MORE UNLIKELY AS 19W CONTINUES TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE STR OVER CHINA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A ZONAL TROUGH IN THE MIDLATITUDES. AS IT BUILDS, IT
WILL IMPART A WEAK INFLUENCE ON 19W THAT WILL SLOWLY DRAG THE SYSTEM
TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
WEST, AVAILABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECREASE AND NOT BE ABLE TO
SUPPORT A SLOW MOVING TYPHOON, AND INTENSITY WILL START TO SLOWLY
DECREASE IN THE LATE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
AFTER TAU 72 AS TO THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. ECMWF, TCLPS AND
JGSM TAKE THE SYSTEM ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK AND EGRR AND
GFDN TAKE THE STORM ON A WESTERLY TRACK. NOGAPS KEEPS THE SYSTEM
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.//
Posted in Bob Symon, Media, News, Opinion, Science, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, Weather | Tagged: Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pacific Satellite composite, Philippines Typhoon Parma, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Melor Forecast Track, Typhoon Melor Japan, Typhoon Melor Satellite, Typhoon Parma, Typhoon Parma Discussion, Typhoon Parma Forecast Track, Typhoon Parma Satellite, Typhoon Parma Satellite Loop, Typhoon Parma Stats, Typhoon Parma Water Vapor Loop, Typhoon Pepeng, Western Pacific IR Satellite, Western Pacific Satellite Loop, Western Pacific Water Vapor Image | 7 Comments »
Typhoon Parma Forecast Track 12Z 10.03.09
For an Update on Typhoon Parma and Typhoon Melor CLICK HERE
Typhoon Parma Satellite Image 1130Z 10.03.09
Typhoon Parma made landfall on the northeast coast of the the Philippines on Saturday. Typhoon Parma’s struck the Cagayan Province with the worst typhoon conditions in a decade, some officials said. Government officials were thankful that the storm wobbled a bit before landfall, although the damage is still extensive and there has been loss of life. While some reports say that Manila was spared, other reports say that Manila had heavy rain on Friday and Saturday and officials were not sure about additional flooding in and around the capital. I suspect that both reports are true. Manila was spared from the full impact but the backside of the storm’s flow is off the South China Sea which would bring bands of heavy rain from the west or northwest. And, it is probably true that local officials have no idea of the rain on the waterlogged areas around the capital will result in new flooding.
Typhoon Parma had maximum winds of near 175 kph (about 110 mph) at landfall which was sufficient to wreak havoc in the Cagayan provincial capital of Tuguegarao where reports of extensive wind damage have come in as well as flooding. The initial reports of three dead will likely be expanded.
Typhoon Melor Forecast Track
The official forecast track of Parma (Joint Typhoon Warning Center Discussion) has some of the elements that I discussed in the previous post as the storm neared the coast. Parma will continue to bring rain to the northern part of the island as its forward momentum will slow down. However, the current thinking is that the storm moves along the track first forecast several days ago,which is more northward toward Taiwan. After doing so for a short time, the storm then moves a bit southeast and then loops back northeast. This movement southeast/northeast movement would be in response to Typhoon Melor (JTWC Discussion) moving by to the east as it makes its way toward Japan. The forecast track has been very difficult for quite some time and the Taiwan government is taking no chances as that island nation is issuing warnings and evacuating some areas as a precaution, which is probably a pretty good idea.
On This Date In History: We’ve all enjoyed Thanksgiving Dinner and we all probably learned in grade school that the first Thanksgiving involved the Pilgirms and the native Indians of North America. But, the real first official Thanksgiving Holiday was proclaimed on this date in 1863 by President Lincoln, calling for an annual day of national Thanksgiving on the fourth Thursday of November. The president used the opportunity to thank the Union Army for the reversal of fortune in the Union effort by the victory at Gettysburg. President Washington had declared a “national day of thanksgiving and prayer” in 1789, but it didn’t become an annual event. In fact, Thomas Jefferson thought that such national events of demonstration towards a deity was not appropriate. Other presidents agreed until President Lincoln’s decree. President Franklin Roosevelt tried what I call a political move in 1939 when he moved the holiday to the third Thursday. However, I suppose its plausible to argue that Lincoln’s initial declaration was rooted in politics. Anyway, FDR was hoping to extend the Christmas shopping season. I guess he thought that by moving Thanksgiving he could pull the wool over American’s eyes and use the psychology of calling a different day Thanksgiving to get them to spend more money. Anyway, Congress had enough of the foolishness and in 1941 put the national holiday back to where President Lincoln put it in the first place.
King Faisal 1st of Iraq crowned by Brits in 1932
On This Date in 1932
Iraq gained independence. The region had been ruled by the Ottoman Empire, which dissolved at the conclusion of World War I. Britain occupied the area and was given a League of Nations mandate to govern the region in 1920. They set up a monarchy and granted independence in 1932. That government maintained strong military and economic ties with Britain and that resulted in numerous protests. In 1941, a pro-Axis (Germany, Italy, Japan) movement took hold and the UK intervened causing the Iraqi government to agree to back the good guys in the war. The monarchy got over thrown in 1958 and for the next 20 years, Iraq was ruled by a series of civilian and military governments until Saddam Hussein became dictator in 1979….a position he held until 2003. Saddam has since left to try to rule another world. However, from its 20th century history, its easy to see why there are skeptics that a democracy can flourish in the region. But, the global political situation is not as it was nor is the politics of the region so one cannot use history as a prescription for the future.
Weather Bottom Line: Great weekend in store. Highs in upper 60′s and lows in the 40′s. Rain chances return on Monday into Tuesday as the evolution of another system unfolds.
Posted in Bob Symon, Culture, History, Louisville Forecast, Louisville Weather, News, Opinion, Politics, Science, This Date In History, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, Weather | Tagged: Abraham Lincoln Thanksgiving, First Thanksgiving, Franklin Roosevelt moves Thanksgiving, Iraq Independence, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, King Faisal I of Iraq, Origin of Thanksgiving, Thanksgiving, Thanksgiving America, Typhoon Melor Forecast Track, Typhoon Parma, Typhoon Parma Forecast Discussion, Typhoon Parma Forecast Track, Typhoon Parma Satellite | Leave a Comment »
Two Typhoons In Western Pacific
for updated information on Typhoon Parma’s strike on Philippines, CLICK HERE
Typhoon Parma Forecast Track 00Z 10.03.09
Typhoon Parma is beginning to interact with the landmass of the Philippines. The Western Pacific Satellite Water Vapor Loop indicates that the dry air that had messed up the Typhoon such that its status as a super typhoon was lost has now passed. Maximum sustained winds have decreased and so if there is some good news, its that the ferocity of the storm will probably be reduced when it makes landfall early on Saturday. But, the issue with this storm has always been primarily the rainfall. (see official text and discussion below) Remember, the flooding from a week ago that killed nearly 300 people was caused by a tropical storm. Not only will this storm bring heavy rain with landfall, it appears more and more likely that it will almost become stationary as it emerges on the north side of the Philippines. NASA TRMM satellite indicates Parma is already bringing heavy rains to parts of the Philippines with thunderstorm tops of 8.5 miles with rainfall rates up to over 1.5 inches per hour The forecast for Sunday is pretty much a consensus for this. That would mean that there will be a tropical storm or typhoon sitting just offshore bringing a flow off of the South China Sea into the northern half of the Philippines for a reasonably extended period of time. The mountainous regions of the country will do nothing but enhance rainfall rates and accumulations. After 48 hours, there is no consensus. The Philippines government is doing the best it can to prepare for the assault of Typhoon Parma on Saturday.
NASA enhanced IR 23:15Z 10.02.09
There is one scenario in which the storm moves west across the South China Sea toward Vietnam. There is another that a trof passing to the north may pick it up and move it northeast. Two other scenarios has Typhoon Melor moving past to the East and heading toward Japan and in its wake, the storm moves northeast. Still another is potentially awful which would be for Melor’s structure to be large enough to interact with Parma. That would have Parma get forced back to the southeast for a time…or possibly back over the Philippines if it is still situtated to the northwest of the islands when that happened. After that southeast movement, then it would get shot out to the northeast. I call this a pinwheel situation, though I believe its more officially known as a binary interaction. When two tropical cyclones get close to one another, they can’t merge but they will rotate around each other with the flow of each storm.
Pacific Satellite 00:15Z 10.03.09
The official forecast for Typhoon Melor (warning text) is a little better as previously it had been forecast to be a super typhoon with winds gusting to 190 mph as it approached Tokyo. But, the dry air that messed up Parma for a short time has moved east and has affected Melor. As it stands, the latest forecast track of Typhoon Melor no longer has it actually striking Tokyo but instead brushing just offshore of the largest Japanese city with winds of about 125 kts gusting to 150 kts. A 140 mph typhoon just off the entrance to Tokyo bay would be no picnic but I suppose its better than a direct hit from a super typhoon. I would say that the Melor forecast 5 days out is very problematic and Tokyo or even all of Japan is not out of danger as there will be so many variables, including if/how it intereacts with Parma. I could draw up a scenario that an interaction with Parma makes it worse for the Philippines and also bad for Japan. But, it’s going to do what its going to do.
Either way, its been a tough week for the Western Pacific and looks to be rough for the week ahead.
WTPN33 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA), HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AS CONVECTIVE
BANDS ALONG ITS WESTERN FLANK CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE CENTRAL
PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM REMAINS AN INTENSE TYPHOON, WITH SATELLITE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 KTS (PGTW) TO 105 KTS
(RJTD). THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD, ALBEIT
PROGRESSIVELY SLOWER, TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72. DURING THIS PERIOD,
IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAIN RANGE
ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON. BY TAU 72, IT WILL CROSS INTO THE
LUZON STRAIT AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH TWO DISTINCT SOLUTIONS
PRESENTED. THE SOLUTION SLIGHTLY FAVORED BY THIS FORECAST IS
REPRESENTED BY NGPS, EGRR, GFDN, JGSM AND THE EXTENDED FIELDS FOR
ECMWF, SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE
OTHER SOLUTION REPRESENTED BY WBAR, GFS AND TCLAPS, SHOWS A
RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST WITHOUT LANDFALL ON LUZON.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TYPHOON PARMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
PLACES THE SYSTEM INTO A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK
WITH GFS, TCLAPS AND WBAR STEERING THE VORTEX SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PACK TOWARDS THE WEST. THIS FORECAST GOES
WITH THE WESTWARD SOLUTION ALBEIT AT A MUCH SLOWER PACE. THE
EXTENDED FIELDS FOR ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA BEFORE RECURVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 120. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE REMAINS A
LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TY 19W. THE
FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE PRESENCE OF TY 20W TO THE EAST. THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT CURRENTLY INDICATE A DIRECT
INTERACTION BETWEEN TY 19W AND TY 20W, THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
MODEL. THE GFS MODEL RECURVES TY 19W SHARPLY AFTER TAU 72, AND
MERGES TY 19W INTO THE CIRCULATION OF TY 20W AFTER TAU 96. THIS
INTERACTION IS FACILITATED BY THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WHICH (IN THE
OTHER MODEL FIELDS) CAUSES THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT SEEN IN THE OTHER MODELS. THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND TAU 48 IS LARGE, WITH LARGE VARIATIONS
IN NUMERICAL VORTEX TRACKERS OCCURRING FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN.
THERE IS A ROUGHLY EVEN CHANCE FOR TY 19W TO TURN MORE WESTWARD INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA OR TO RECURVE AND INTERACT WITH TY 20W IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.//
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 122.5E. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF LUZON,
PHILIPPINES AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS
BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER WATER IN THE LUZON STRAIT. THE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY TURN TO THE EAST FROM TAU 12 THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES WEAK. 19W WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS AND
INCREASES THE STEERING FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IMPROVING OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK HAS INCREASED
ACCORDINGLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z — NEAR 17.4N 122.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 122.9E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 18.5N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 18.9N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 19.4N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z — 20.1N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 20.9N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5… AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 21.5N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 21.9N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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Posted in Bob Symon, Media, News, Opinion, Science, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, Weather | Tagged: Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Luzon Philippines Typhoon Parma, NASA TRMM Satellite, Pacific Satellite composite, Philippines evacuation, Philippines evacuation Typhoon Parma, Philippines state of calamity typhoon Parma, Philippines Typhoon Parma, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Melor Japan, Typhoon Melor Satellite, Typhoon Parma, Typhoon Parma Discussion, Typhoon Parma Forecast Track, Typhoon Parma Satellite, Typhoon Parma Satellite Loop, Typhoon Parma Stats, Typhoon Parma Water Vapor Loop, Western Pacific IR Satellite, Western Pacific Satellite Loop, Western Pacific Water Vapor Image | Leave a Comment »
Typhoon Parma 1130Z Oct 2; 933mb 120 kts
For a more recent update on Typhoon Parma, CLICK HERE
Latest Typhoon Parma Forecast Track
Nearly 300 people lost thier lives this past week in flooding relating to a tropical storm in the Philippines. Now, the Philippines is preparing as best it can for the much stronger Typhoon Parma which will make landfall by late or early Saturday. The Filipino government has declared a “state of calamity” for the nation and evacuation as taking place.
Typhoon Parma at 6Z Oct 2 2009 was located less than 250 miles east of Manila in the Philippines and was moving NW at 15 kts. It’s maximum sustained winds were 120 kts with gusts to 145 kts. That would be nearly 140 mph winds with gusts to over 165 mph. Seas offshore were running as high as 32 feet. The discussion below is from the 00Z report and the remarks that follow correspond with the 6Z update from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. There is pretty fair agreement among the models for the storm to continue moving at its present speed to the northwest or west-northwest and make landfall in northeastern Luzon province in the Philippines. The consensus continues to be a slowing of the forward motion as the storm makes landfall late Friday or rearly Saturday. That would result in an increased threat for devastating flooding. Compounding that threat will be the high terrain in the region which will serve to simply enhance the rain intensity. While the storm is not the 165 mph storm that had been earlier forecast, it is still quite formidable and much stronger than the tropical storm that brought so much misery to the island nation less than a week ago. For about 48 hours, Parma is expected to slowly move along the northern edge of the island. Wrap around rains will no doubt be moving off the ocean on the western side of the island and bring heavy rain with gusty winds to Manila. At that point, there is a diversion in the models. About half want to take the storm on a northerly track toward Taiwan with the other half taking it more west toward Vietnam. The official forecast has the more westward trajectory in mind. Parma is expected to be weakening steadily after initial landfall but devastating rains will be the big problem following a 10-20 foot surge to the right of the landfall position.
WDPN33 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (PARMA)WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA), HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AS CONVECTIVE
BANDS ALONG ITS WESTERN FLANK INTERACTED WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF THE
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. TY 19W REMAINS A VERY STRONG TYPHOON AT 120 KNOTS,
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE
IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD, ALBEIT
PROGRESSIVELY SLOWER, TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72. DURING THIS PERIOD,
IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAIN RANGE ALONG
THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON. BY TAU 72, IT WILL CROSS INTO THE LUZON
STRAIT AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TYPHOON PARMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
PLACES THE SYSTEM IN A COL AREA. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS
SPLIT ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK WITH GFS AND WBAR STEERING THE
VORTEX SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PACK TOWARDS THE
WEST. THIS FORECAST GOES WITH THE WESTWARD SOLUTION ALBEIT AT A MUCH
SLOWER PACE.//
WTPN33 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 124.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PARMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TY 19W CONTINUES TO TRACK ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF LUZON, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU
12. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN LUZON INTO THE
LUZON STRAIT BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH
SEVERAL AIDS (NGPS, EGRR, GFDN) CROSSING NORTH-CENTRAL LUZON AND
MOVING FURTHER INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE REMAINING AIDS (JGSM,
AVNO, WBAR AND TCLP) INDICATE A RECURVATURE SCENARIO, WITH AVNO
BEING THE MOST AGRESSIVE OF THESE (REACHING TOKYO AT TAU 120). THIS
FORECAST FAVORS THE MORE WESTWARD GROUPING, BUT REFLECTS THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TRACKING MUCH MORE SLOWLY IN THE
AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z — NEAR 15.3N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 305 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 125.0E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z — 16.7N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 17.8N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z — 18.8N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 19.3N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 01 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 19.8N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 01 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5… AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z — 20.1N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
—
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z — 19.6N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
Posted in Bob Symon, Hurricanes, News, Opinion, Science, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, Weather | Tagged: Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Luzon Philippines Typhoon Parma, Philippines evacuation Typhoon Parma, Philippines state of calamity typhoon Parma, Philippines Typhoon Parma, Typhoon Parma, Typhoon Parma Discussion, Typhoon Parma Forecast Track, Typhoon Parma Satellite, Typhoon Parma Stats | Leave a Comment »
Typhoon Parma Set to Strike Philippines
For latest update on Typhoon Parma, click here
Typhoon Parma 1530Z Oct 1 120 kts, 933mb
The Philippines suffered from catastrophic flooding from last week’s assault by Tropical Storm Ketsana bringing death to at least 277. Most of the flooding problems were in and around Manila and Luzon but other parts of the country received very heavy rainfall. The armed forces of the Philippines are being mobilized as the island nation is now bracing for the impact of a much much stronger storm. Typhoon Parma is now forecast to strike the northern provinces of the Philippines by Friday. It is rapidly increasing in strength and is forecast to possibly become Super Typhoon Parma as it moves across the northeastern portion of the Philippines. At that time, winds are expected to be at 125 kts with gusts to 140 kts. That converts to maximum sustained winds of 145 mph with gusts to 160 mph. That would be equivalent to a category 4 hurricane. As of 12Z Oct 1, the storm had a very low central pressure of 933 mb.
On the one hand, these provinces are some distance from Manila and the storm was forecast to move relatively quickly. That would mean that the country has very little time to prepare. While the initial landfall is away from Manila and Luzon, the mountainous parts of the country will enhance the rain potential and mudslides will be problematic. What is troubling is that the latest forecast track has changed. Previously, the forecast suggested an even stronger typhoon brushing along the northeastern provinces before heading to Taiwan. The storm has encoutered some dry air intrusion and that is the reason for the lower forecast intensity. But, the steering has been altered and now the storm is expected to slow down and kinda wrap around the northern tip of the Philippines. Should this happen, rainfall throughout the northern half of the island nation will be quite extreme. Potentially, this could make a terrible disaster even worse. Further, if Typhoon Parma develops fully, it will be heading toward the maximum destructive potential sporting an emormous storm surge. I’m not certain of the topography of the shelf and coast but I would say a surge of 10-20 feet would not be out of the question.
WTPN33 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 128.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PARMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS ENCOUNTERED AN AREA OF INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH, CAUSING PARMA TO WEAKEN TO TYPHOON
STRENGTH. FORECAST TRACK AND PHILOSOPHY REMAIN CONSISTENT, WITH
LANDFALL OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF LUZON NEAR TAU 48
AND THE SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE LUZON STRAIT AND NORTHERN SOUTH
CHINA SEA THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS
29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z — NEAR 13.1N 128.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 128.6E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 14.3N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 15.6N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z — 16.7N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 17.9N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 19.2N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5… AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 19.5N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS
—
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 19.4N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
WDPN33 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 19W (PARMA)WARNING NR
16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PARMA) HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
TO A TYPHOON. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES (AS
SEEN IN THE 011200Z SOUNDING FROM RPMT) IN THE MID LEVELS HAS CAUSED
EROSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, LOWERING DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES TO 5.5 WITH RJTD REMAINING AT 7.0.
THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO ENCOUNTERED MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20 T0 30 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THESE TWO FACTORS CAUSED A LOSS OF DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING
TO RECOVER. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TRACKING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN LUZON.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF LUZON, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48 BEFORE
CROSSING INTO THE LUZON STRAIT NEAR TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL
RECOVER INTENSITY, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO
SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK, WITH THE NOTABLE OUTLIERS OF THE
GFDN, JGSM, AND GFS MODELS. GFDN TAKES A MORE WESTERLY COURSE INTO
CENTRAL LUZON BEFORE CROSSING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 48.
GFS AND JGSM NEITHER MAKE LANDFALL, WITH JGSM TURNING NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER TAU 12 AND ASSUMING A MORE WESTERLY COURSE AFTER
TAU 48. GFS TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AFTER TAU 24, AND RECURVES
AFTER TAU 72. THE REMAINING NUMERICAL MODELS (NOGAPS, TCLAPS, WBAR,
EGRR AND ECMWF) MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48 BEFORE BIFURCATING. WBAR
AND TCLAPS TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE LUZON STRAIT, WHILE NOGAPS, EGRR
AND ECMWF TURN WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH NORTHERN LUZON’S TOPOGRAPHY. ONCE IT
CROSSES INTO LUZON STRAIT, IT WILL REMAIN AT STRONG TYPHOON
INTENSITY. DURING THIS PERIOD, TYPHOON PARMA WILL SLOW DOWN ITS
FORWARD MOTION AS A BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE DEVELOPS AND
POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) COMMENCES. AVAILABLE
NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 AS
DISCUSSED ABOVE. AFTER TAU 72 THE TRACK SPEEDS REMAIN SLOW, WITH
THIS FORECAST FAVORING THE NOGAPS, EGRR AND ECMWF SOLUTION OF A
TURN INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR TY 19W
REMAINS COMPLICATED BY POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH TY 20W TO THE EAST
AND INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH (THE SOURCE
OF THE BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE).//
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