Typhoon Parma Strikes Philippines; 1st Thanksgiving; 1st Iraq Independence Day October 3, 2009

Typhoon Parma Forecast Track 12Z 10.03.09

For an Update on Typhoon Parma and Typhoon Melor CLICK HERE

Typhoon Parma Satellite Image 1130Z 10.03.09

Typhoon Parma made landfall on the northeast coast of the the Philippines on Saturday.  Typhoon Parma’s struck   the Cagayan Province  with the worst typhoon conditions in a decade, some officials said.  Government officials were thankful that the storm wobbled a bit before landfall, although the damage is still extensive and there has been loss of life.  While some reports say that Manila was spared, other reports say that Manila had heavy rain on Friday and Saturday and officials were not sure about additional flooding in and around the capital.   I suspect that both reports are true.  Manila was spared from the full impact but the backside of the storm’s flow is off the South China Sea which would bring bands of heavy rain from the west or northwest.  And, it is probably true that local officials have no idea of the rain on the waterlogged areas around the capital will result in new flooding. 

Typhoon Parma had maximum winds of near 175 kph (about 110 mph) at landfall which was sufficient to wreak havoc in the Cagayan provincial capital of Tuguegarao where reports of extensive wind damage have come in as well as flooding.  The initial reports of three dead will likely be expanded.

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track

The official forecast track of Parma (Joint Typhoon Warning Center Discussion) has some of the elements that I discussed in the previous post as the storm neared the coast.  Parma will continue to bring rain to the northern part of the island as its forward momentum will slow down.  However, the current thinking is that the storm moves along the track first forecast several days ago,which is more northward toward Taiwan.   After doing so for a short time, the storm then moves a bit southeast and then loops back northeast.  This movement southeast/northeast movement would be in response to Typhoon Melor (JTWC Discussion) moving by to the east as it makes its way toward Japan.  The forecast track has been very difficult for quite some time and the Taiwan government is taking no chances as that island nation is  issuing warnings and evacuating some areas as a precaution, which is probably a pretty good idea.

On This Date In History: We’ve all enjoyed Thanksgiving Dinner and we all probably learned in grade school that the first Thanksgiving involved the Pilgirms and the native Indians of North America. But, the real first official Thanksgiving Holiday was proclaimed on this date in 1863 by President Lincoln, calling for an annual day of national Thanksgiving on the fourth Thursday of November. The president used the opportunity to thank the Union Army for the reversal of fortune in the Union effort by the victory at Gettysburg. President Washington had declared a “national day of thanksgiving and prayer” in 1789, but it didn’t become an annual event. In fact, Thomas Jefferson thought that such national events of demonstration towards a deity was not appropriate. Other presidents agreed until President Lincoln’s decree. President Franklin Roosevelt tried what I call a political move in 1939 when he moved the holiday to the third Thursday. However, I suppose its plausible to argue that Lincoln’s initial declaration was rooted in politics. Anyway, FDR was hoping to extend the Christmas shopping season. I guess he thought that by moving Thanksgiving he could pull the wool over American’s eyes and use the psychology of calling a different day Thanksgiving to get them to spend more money. Anyway, Congress had enough of the foolishness and in 1941 put the national holiday back to where President Lincoln put it in the first place.

King Faisal 1st of Iraq crowned by Brits in 1932

On This Date in 1932

Iraq gained independence. The region had been ruled by the Ottoman Empire, which dissolved at the conclusion of World War I. Britain occupied the area and was given a League of Nations mandate to govern the region in 1920. They set up a monarchy and granted independence in 1932. That government maintained strong military and economic ties with Britain and that resulted in numerous protests. In 1941, a pro-Axis (Germany, Italy, Japan) movement took hold and the UK intervened causing the Iraqi government to agree to back the good guys in the war. The monarchy got over thrown in 1958 and for the next 20 years, Iraq was ruled by a series of civilian and military governments until Saddam Hussein became dictator in 1979….a position he held until 2003. Saddam has since left to try to rule another world. However, from its 20th century history, its easy to see why there are skeptics that a democracy can flourish in the region. But, the global political situation is not as it was nor is the politics of the region so one cannot use history as a prescription for the future.

Weather Bottom Line:  Great weekend in store.  Highs in upper 60′s and lows in the 40′s. Rain chances return on Monday into Tuesday as the evolution of another system unfolds.

Typhoon Parma Set to Slam Flood Ravaged Philippines, Potential Catastrophe October 1, 2009

Typhoon Parma Set to Strike Philippines

For latest update on Typhoon Parma, click here

Typhoon Parma 1530Z Oct 1 120 kts, 933mb

The Philippines suffered from catastrophic flooding from last week’s assault by Tropical Storm Ketsana bringing death to at least 277.  Most of the flooding problems were in and around Manila and Luzon but other parts of the country received very heavy rainfall.  The armed forces of the Philippines are being mobilized as the island nation is now bracing for the impact of a much much stronger storm.  Typhoon Parma is now forecast to strike the northern provinces of the Philippines by Friday.  It is rapidly increasing in strength and is forecast to possibly become Super Typhoon Parma as it moves across the northeastern portion of the Philippines.  At that time, winds are expected to be at 125 kts with gusts to 140 kts.  That converts to maximum sustained winds of 145 mph with gusts to 160 mph.  That would be equivalent to a category 4 hurricane.  As of 12Z Oct 1, the storm had a very low central pressure of 933 mb.

On the one hand, these provinces are some distance from Manila and the storm was forecast to move relatively quickly.  That would mean that the country has very little time to prepare.  While the initial landfall is away from Manila and Luzon, the mountainous parts of the country will enhance the rain potential and mudslides will be problematic.  What is troubling is that the latest forecast track has changed.  Previously, the forecast suggested an even stronger typhoon brushing along the northeastern provinces before heading to Taiwan.  The storm has encoutered some dry air intrusion and that is the reason for the lower forecast intensity.  But, the steering has been altered and now the storm is expected to slow down and kinda wrap around the northern tip of the Philippines.  Should this happen, rainfall throughout the northern half of the island nation will be quite extreme.  Potentially, this could make a terrible disaster even worse.  Further, if Typhoon Parma develops fully, it will be heading toward the maximum destructive potential sporting an emormous storm surge.   I’m not certain of the topography of the shelf and coast but I would say a surge of 10-20 feet would not be out of the question.

WTPN33 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/

REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 128.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PARMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS ENCOUNTERED AN AREA OF INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH, CAUSING PARMA TO WEAKEN TO TYPHOON
STRENGTH. FORECAST TRACK AND PHILOSOPHY REMAIN CONSISTENT, WITH
LANDFALL OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF LUZON NEAR TAU 48
AND THE SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE LUZON STRAIT AND NORTHERN SOUTH
CHINA SEA THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS
29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 016   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    —
   WARNING POSITION:
   011200Z — NEAR 13.1N 128.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 128.6E
    —
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z — 14.3N 126.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
    —
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z — 15.6N 124.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
    —
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z — 16.7N 123.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
    —
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z — 17.9N 122.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
    —
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z — 19.2N 121.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
    —
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5… AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    —
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z — 19.5N 120.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS
    —
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z — 19.4N 119.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WDPN33 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 19W (PARMA)WARNING NR
16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PARMA) HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
TO A TYPHOON. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES (AS
SEEN IN THE 011200Z SOUNDING FROM RPMT) IN THE MID LEVELS HAS CAUSED
EROSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, LOWERING DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES TO 5.5 WITH RJTD REMAINING AT 7.0.
THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO ENCOUNTERED MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20 T0 30 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THESE TWO FACTORS CAUSED A LOSS OF DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING
TO RECOVER. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TRACKING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN LUZON.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF LUZON, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48 BEFORE
CROSSING INTO THE LUZON STRAIT NEAR TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL
RECOVER INTENSITY, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO
SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK, WITH THE NOTABLE OUTLIERS OF THE
GFDN, JGSM, AND GFS MODELS. GFDN TAKES A MORE WESTERLY COURSE INTO
CENTRAL LUZON BEFORE CROSSING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 48.
GFS AND JGSM NEITHER MAKE LANDFALL, WITH JGSM TURNING NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER TAU 12 AND ASSUMING A MORE WESTERLY COURSE AFTER
TAU 48. GFS TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AFTER TAU 24, AND RECURVES
AFTER TAU 72. THE REMAINING NUMERICAL MODELS (NOGAPS, TCLAPS, WBAR,
EGRR AND ECMWF) MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48 BEFORE BIFURCATING. WBAR
AND TCLAPS TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE LUZON STRAIT, WHILE NOGAPS, EGRR
AND ECMWF TURN WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
    C. AFTER TAU 72, TY PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH NORTHERN LUZON’S TOPOGRAPHY. ONCE IT
CROSSES INTO LUZON STRAIT, IT WILL REMAIN AT STRONG TYPHOON
INTENSITY. DURING THIS PERIOD, TYPHOON PARMA WILL SLOW DOWN ITS
FORWARD MOTION AS A BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE DEVELOPS AND
POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) COMMENCES. AVAILABLE
NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 AS
DISCUSSED ABOVE. AFTER TAU 72 THE TRACK SPEEDS REMAIN SLOW, WITH
THIS FORECAST FAVORING THE NOGAPS, EGRR AND ECMWF SOLUTION OF A
TURN INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR TY 19W
REMAINS COMPLICATED BY POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH TY 20W TO THE EAST
AND INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH (THE SOURCE
OF THE BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE).//

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