Typhoon Melor Tracks to Lash Japan;Parma Now a Depression But Plaguing Philippines October 8, 2009

Average Rainfall Last 30 Days

For Latest Update on Typhoon Melor, former Typhoon Parma and new tropical cyclone, CLICK HERE

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track

The Forecast Track of Typhoon Melor (see JTWC discussion below) is behaving itself with regard to the the intensity, direction and forward speed.  While the report from USA Today claims winds of 100 mph, the storm has actually weakend with 65 kt sustained winds (80 mph) with gusts perhaps as high as 80 kts( 95 to 100 mph).  The media always seems to take the outlying wind gusts as the measuring point since it sounds better.   It is but a shadow of its former self when it was a super typhoon with 145  kt winds (165mph) and gusts pushing toward 160 kts (185mph).  All along, it had been forecast to make the turn in the northwest Philippines Sea and swing toward Japan and while doing so, weaken rather rapidly as it encounters strong upper level wind shear and moves into a baroclinic zone (a frontal boundary) and become extra tropical as it accelerates to the northeast. 

Click Image for Color IR WPac Loop

Now, apparently officials are expecting rain totals of up to 20 inches, which is relatively benign but still a little more elevated than one might expect from a fast moving storm.  I suspect that the mountains of Honshu are expected to enhance the rain totals and that is the reason for that expectation.  There is some question as to whether or not the storm will run right over Tokyo, to the west of Tokyo or just to the east of Godzilla’s favorite stomping ground but the official forecast has been consistent with it running just west of the largest city in Japan.  There will be gusty wind and high seas with elevated sea levels in Tokyo Bay, but I suspect the rain deluge will be the biggest issue in mountainous regions. 

Melor Vertical Temp Anomaly 21Z 10.07.09

Now, what makes a tropical cyclone different from a typical storm.  Both are low pressure but a typical storm is one that has a cold core.   Most of the time you expect to have colder air aloft and convection is supported by warmer air below along with certain wind dynamics.  A characteristic that makes a tropical cyclone distinctive from a normal area of low pressure is that the core is warm. It’s called a warm core low.  A good strong tropical cyclone will have much warmer air aloft than at the surface at the center.  The storm feeds off of warm ocean waters and in order for one to get going, you need to have water temperatures of at least 26.5 C (80 F) water temperatures. 

Parma Vertical Temp Anomaly 2048Z 10.07.09

In the case of Parma, (see JTWC discussion below) it was sitting over the same water for some time while it was northwest of the Philippines.  It was washing away the warm water on the surface and colder water was coming to the surface and so it began to kill itself.  In the case of Typhoon Melor, its been moving right along and so has maintained its tropical characteristics.  Even now as its running into a hostile environment, it still has warmer temperatures aloft as seen to the upper right.  To the left is the weaker Parma that still has a decent circulation but its warm core is not as distinct as the stronger Melor.  But, it is still a warm core low so Parma is still a tropical cyclone.   However, it has been downgraded at this time to a tropical depression because the winds have backed off so much.

Parma Forecast Track

Now, Parma has been meandering across the northern part of the Philippines and actually may be just off the northeastern coast in the Philippines Sea.  For all intents and purposes, its been stationary but officially its been drifting northeast.  The biggest signifincance with this is that with the center of circulation over the water, it may be able to at least maintain its weak stature if not actually increase a bit  in intensity. As it is, Parma’s rain over the Philippines on Wednesday was sparse enough for clean up efforts to remain robust in Manila, where it is said that the garbage and debris blocking the streets is such that it may take two months to get things back to something close to normal.  The track of Parma will not help for the next couple of days.  A ridge of high pressure is building to the northeast in China and will move in to the north behind Melor.  As it does, Parma will begin a drift back toward the west.  As of this report, Parma was starting to show signs of convenction increasing as its over the water and so, as Parma drifts back across the Philippines, it will bring more rain. 

30 Day Avg Daily Rainfall anomaly

 Probably not as much as they had with the initial landfall but anything they get is too much.  Take a look at the top of the page at the average rainfall in the region over the past 30 days.  Thats an average of over 20 mm a day or about .80 inches.  Now, much of that fell with Ketsana when they got their monthly total in Manila in about 12 hours.  The rainfall anomoly is to the left and so it shows just how much more rain the northern Philippines has received in the last 30 days than  the average. Its about 15mm a day more than average or about .60 inches per day.  So, any additional rain will be no help.  The storm will acclerate to the west and head to China.  As it moves across the South China Sea with the ridge to the north building, it will get into an environment that will be favorable for re-development.   The good news is that it will probably run into land before it can become too strong again (back to tropical storm status) but its certain to bring heavy rains to the landfall location, particularly to the right of where the eye crosses the land.

DEPRESSION PARMA Discussion warning #40

WDPN33 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA)//
WARNING NR 40//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TS PARMA HAS CROSSED NORTHERN LUZON AND
IS NOW BACK OVER WATER IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. DEEP CONVECTION
WANED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED OVER LAND, THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SOME
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). PARMA CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN IN A VERY WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS IT SITS IN A COL REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON CONSISTENT POSITION FIXES BY
RJTD AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTD AND RJTD.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE THE
LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B.  TS PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD IN A VERY
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PARMA IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS BACK OVER NORTHERN LUZON.
    C. BEYOND TAU 48, TS PARMA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CHINA,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD. AS THE STEERING
INFLUENCE BECOMES MORE DEFINED BY TAU 72, PARMA WILL START TO PICK UP TRACK
SPEED THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND RE-INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS
GENERALLY AGREE WITH AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE WEST, THOUGH THE TIMING
AND DEGREE OF THIS TURN VARIES WIDELY. THIS FORECAST LEANS ON THE
EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY THE UKMO AND ECMWF.//

TYPHOOH MELOR Discussion warning 34

WDPN34 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 34//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TY MELOR IS POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
AND IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO
THE NORTHEAST BY THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE 071002Z
37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS EROSION IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE EYE WALL AS WELL AS THE APPEARANCE OF DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS IN LINE WITH THE LAST SIX RJTD
RADAR FIXES AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS A ROUGH AVERAGE OF THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD, PGTW AND KNES.
3. FORECAST REASONING
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY MELOR WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BARO-
CLINIC ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 08 TO 10
HOURS AS MINIMAL TYPHOON. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, TY MELOR WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS HONSHU WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. BY
TAU 24 HOUR, MELOR SHOULD ATTAIN FULL BAROCLINICITY AND PASS EAST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, AS A STRONG, JET-SUPPORTED BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THE
MODEL AIDS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A LANDFALL SCENARIO WEST
OF TOKYO, JAPAN. HOWEVER, THE UKMO TRACKER, EGGR, IS THE EASTERN
OUTLIER AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM ROUGHLY 20 NM WEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN.
THIS FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE MELOR AS FAR EAST AS THE EGRR TRACKER,
THOUGH IT DOES TRACK EAST OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS.//

Typhoon Parma,Typhoon Melor forecast aided by satellite with origins of 52 yrs ago October 4, 2009

Western Pacific Color IR 1730Z 10.04.09

For a more recent update on Parma and Typhoon Melor CLICK HERE

Parma JTWC Forecast Track

Typhoon Parma forecasting continues to be a daunting task. More than a day ago, I told you of the prospects of the storm potentially coming back toward the Philippines in reaction to Typhoon Melor (JTWC warning/discussion text)  passing by to the east. I suspect that the forecasters knew this too but they were trying not to alarm the populus until more descernable evidence showed up. Now, the media has finally gotten clued into the possibility. “It is possible that it (Parma) will make U-turn and will hit Luzon again,” said forecaster Nathaniel Cruz. I mentioned that a couple of days ago. I want to emphasize that its just a possibility at this point. So far, the storm has not been handled well consistently by any model and the official forecasts have been all over the place. But, the potential for a return visit remains on the table.

W. Pacific Water Vapor Image/Loop

Those are ifs and buts so lets look at whats really going on.  A trof emerged out of China and dove down toward Parma.  That has done some damge to the storm sufficiently weakening to to Tropical Storm status.  That is good news.  Bad news is that it still has pretty good looking circulation.  The satellite imagery shows just how much the storm has eroded.   Northern convection is almost absent and an eye is tough to find.  As long as it keeps that circulation, once the trof moves by, then it could start to regain intensity…BUT…if it does stay pretty much quasi-stationary…or generally in the same spot, what will happen is that the warm water on the ocean surface gets washed around and colder water below comes to the surface to take its place.  This is called upwelling and a tropical cyclone cannot stay in one place for long and expect to live because cold water will come to the surface and it needs water temperatures of at least 26.5 degrees C to survive.  So, will it stay in one place?  The fate of Tropical Storm Parma may fall to Super Typhoon Melor.

Typhoon Melor JTWC Forecast Track

How these two storms are related is as follows.  Typhoon Melor is a very well developed Super Typhoon.  Its forecast track takes it across the Philippine Sea and swings all the way to the eastern Luzon Strait.  It has a counter-clockwise flow.  Now, Typhoon Parma is meandering in the northeastern South China Sea or the western Luzon Strait.  As the two storms get close, the flow around Melor will tend to send Parma down to the south.  Meanwhile, the flow around Parma may swing Melor a bit more northwest.  But, Melor is the dominant storm and has much greater forward momentum so the effects of Parma on it would be less distinct though it may be significant enough to swing Melor closer to Japan than might otherwise happen.  Japan is going to at least be affected by the western edge of Melor.  Meanwhile, the big question with Parma will be if the flow around Melor is strong enough and lasts long enough to swing Parma south and then southeast back toward the Philippines, which could be catastrophic because in all liklihood, this would take it back over Manila.  But, several of the models want to bring the storm back south and then west…as Melor moves quickly to the northeast, Parma gets slung out before it comes back around to the Philippines and instead moves southwest and then west toward Vietnam, which isn’t good for them either because they too had great affect from last week’s Tropical Storm Ketsana.  The variables remain great and so the confidence in the longer term forecast remains questionable.  See the 15Z Forecast Discussion/Prognastic reasoning for Parma at the bottom of the post.

W Pacific IR Satellite Loop

I’ve had some queries regarding how to track Typhoon Parma and Typhoon Melor.  If you click on this link for the Western Pacific Water Vapor Image Loop, you will get the most recent imagery and it will provide the best viewing of the eye for either storm if it exists.  If you click on the maps of the forecast track for either storm, the most recent update of the forecast track and the most recent position will also appear.  We kinda take this satellite stuff for granted nowadays, but the ability to track tropical cyclones really hasn’t been around too long. The first storm tracked using satellite imagery was Hurricane Camille in August 1969.  It just happened that that storm developed rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico from a long lived tropical storm into a hurricane with winds of up to 200 mph.  The forecast was difficult but with the satellite technology available, the forecasters were able to improve their ability and perhaps many lives were spared with an advanced warning that they may not have otherwise have had.  You can find the history of the origin of man-made space satellites below…

On This Date In History: Speaking of satellites…on this date in 1957, many Americans were quaking in their boots. The Soviet Union launched Sputnik, the first artificial satellite. It was a small metal sphere with a few antennae sticking out. It weighed about 157 pounds and emitted a radio beeping sound heard by millions around the earth as news readers announced the feat. The frightful thing about the development in many Americans’ minds was that the Soviets had proven they could launch an intercontinental ballistic missile. If they could deliver a metal sphere into space, then it was plausible they could deliver an atomic warhead into Uncle Sam’s back yard. Sputnik came to be known as a “baby moon” because, like the moon, it was a satellite of the earth and both had spherical shapes. That led many Americans to fear that the Soviets would gain a strategic edge in outer space development….perhaps build space platforms or a base on the moon from which they could make sneak attacks on the USA by dropping bombs from above. There’s a great line from The Right Stuff  in which Lyndon Johnson says, “I for one do not intend to go to bed at night by the light of a communist moon!” The US Army launched Explorer I on January 31, 1958 as Americas first artificial satellite.

Today's Weather Satellites are descendents of Sputnik

The Eisenhower Administration decided it was time to get serious and so on October 1, 1958 the President announced the creation of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to bring all space efforts under one umbrella. President Kennedy made it a national goal to put a man on the moon by the end of the 1960′s. He made no mention of it but most Americans thought the idea was to beat the Soviets to the moon. We did and that was that….we also got Tang, Teflon, mini-computers, microwave ovens and other things but not Velcro. That was invented by a Swiss Mountain climber in the 1940′s and 1950′s…it took him a while to develop it. I think he got his inspiration from his dog getting grass burrs in his coat following a mountain walk.

Louisville Weather Bottom Line:  Previously, it appeared that a warm front would be lifted our way on Monday and increase rain chances then.  There had been some notion that would happen.  The GFS had been most bullish on this solution but its taken it off the board.  The Canadian Model has short waves to the south but moves them east instead of into the Ohio Valley.   So, Monday will have a mix of clouds and sun with rain chances increasing on Tuesday as a warm front/cold front combo works its way through.  So, look for rain Tuesday, maybe some t’storms.  Rain chances will carry into Tuesday night and then reinforcing cool air coming in for the rest of the week.  The cool pattern appears to be interested in sticking around for at least another 10 days.

WDPN33 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) PARMA HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. A FAIRLY NEW UPPER LEVEL FEATURE (SHORTWAVE TROUGH) APPEARS
TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAPID DEPLETION OF PARMA’S DEEP
CONVECTION. THE TROUGH ORIGINATED OVER CENTRAL CHINA AND HAS SINCE
CONTINUED TO DIG EQUATORWARD. SKEW-T SOUNDINGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CHINA INDICATE THE TROUGH EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTH AS 23.5N,
LESS THAN 4 DEGREES SHY OF PARMA’S LATITUDE. A VERY TIGHT SHEAR
GRADIENT, AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS, ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH, CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE CURRENT VOID OF
DEEP CONVECTION A STRONG SURFACE CIRCULATION REMAINS. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE FALLEN TO A 3.0/4.0. THE FINAL-T NUMBER IS
BASED ON THE PATTERN-T, VICE A WRAP, BECAUSE THE CONVECTION IS TOO
WEAK. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO GENERALLY TRACKED FROM NORTHWESTWARD TO
MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. 
3.   FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM BECAUSE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DROPPED BELOW 65 KNOTS.
    B. THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO THE NORTHEAST OF
LUZON IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
REINTENSIFICATION EXISTS ONCE THE TROUGH MENTIONED IN PARA 2.A.
PASSES TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER WILL BEGIN TO
STALL INTENSIFICATION OR EVEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROUGH MAY STRIP THE CIRCULATION OF SO
MUCH CONVECTION THAT IT IS UNABLE TO REBOUND BEFORE UPWELLING BEGINS
TO CUT OFF INTENSIFICATION ALL TOGETHER. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TS 19W GIVEN THAT IT IS IN A WEAK AND
ILL-DEFINED STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IF RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM, THEN STORM WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE
SOUTHWEST, AS THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS INDICATE. ON THE
OTHER HAND, IF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REBUILDS FASTER (AND STRONGER)
THAN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST THEN THAT WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM FOR PARMA. THERE IS ALSO THE EXPECTATION THAT IF
THE STORM IS UNABLE TO REACQUIRE DEEP CONVECTION, THE TRACKERS WILL
INITIALIZE A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH ERRONEOUS TRACK SOLUTIONS.
    C. THERE IS NO STRONG INDICATION, THAT BEYOND DAY 4, THE CYCLONE
WILL BEGIN TO BE PICKED UP BY ANY RIDGING/FLOW SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
GUIDE IT OUT OF THIS QUASISTATIONARY STATE. AS SUCH, THE FORECAST
REMAINS SLOW, BUT NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.