Typhoon Melor Leaves Japan Behind;Former Typhoon Parma Still Taking Filipino Lives October 8, 2009

Click on Image for most recent W. Pacific IR Loop

See latest storm info and story on rising death toll from Typhoon Parma-over 100 dead in Philippines CLICK HERE

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track

Typhoon Melor crossed the Japanese Island of Honshu relatively quickly but still brought very heavy rain and gusty winds.  At least three people lost their lives as a result of Typhoon Melor.  The forecast track for Typhoon Melor was pretty much on the money with a landfall early Thursday morning with winds topping at 139 kmh or 86 mph south of Nagoya, Japan.  The wave heights were some 9 meters, or 30 feet.  The Typhoon Melor prognastic reasoning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been consistent with the idea that the storm will quickly transform from a tropical cyclone into an extra-tropical storm as it continues to race to the northeast.  Due to its rapid movement, the effects of the storm will subside across Japan by the end of the day. It’s moving so rapidly that the JTWC has issued its final warning for Typhoon Melor.  Commuter train service was haulted Thursday morning in Tokyo but will be restored by the afternoon rush hour.  Toyota shut down plants for the day but operations should resume quickly.  Shipping interests also will be returning to normal as the seas begin to subside.  Hokkaido will feel the effects of Melor will persist even though its losing its tropical characteristics because the structure will not change the windy and heavy rain aspects of the storm.

Parma Forecast Track

Meanwhile, to the south, the remnant of Typhoon Parma (JTWC discussion) remains parked over the northern Philippines.  Early Thursday morning, convection began to explode over parts of the island as the storm center had drifted just off the northeastern coast of the nation.  Wednesday had been relatively benign an clean up operations began from Tropical Storm Ketsana over a week ago.  The heavy rain produced by now Tropical Depression Parma brought more landslides that killed at least 6 more people, including a man who was doing clean up work and also several small children who were buried in their homes.    The storm is expected to continue to linger over the Philippines throughout the day before it moves to the west and finally away from the drenched nation on Friday.  Thereafter, it should regain some strength as it moves toward Vietnam, which also suffered from flooding and deaths due to Tropical Storm Ketsana. 

Depression 21 Forecast Track

Meanwhile, if you look at the color enhanced infrared satellite loop above, you will notice two other areas of interest to the east-southeast of the Philippines that appear to be candidates for development.  The largest of the two is to the east of the Philippines and is showing up quite prominently on the satellite loop.  It has been designated Depression 21 and is forecast to have some development but the forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggests a more northward movement and it is not expected to affect land at this time.  However, to its south and east is another system that looks suspicious to me.  I’m sure the JTWC will begin issuing reports on it over the next 48-72 hours.

Typhoon Melor Tracks to Lash Japan;Parma Now a Depression But Plaguing Philippines October 8, 2009

Average Rainfall Last 30 Days

For Latest Update on Typhoon Melor, former Typhoon Parma and new tropical cyclone, CLICK HERE

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track

The Forecast Track of Typhoon Melor (see JTWC discussion below) is behaving itself with regard to the the intensity, direction and forward speed.  While the report from USA Today claims winds of 100 mph, the storm has actually weakend with 65 kt sustained winds (80 mph) with gusts perhaps as high as 80 kts( 95 to 100 mph).  The media always seems to take the outlying wind gusts as the measuring point since it sounds better.   It is but a shadow of its former self when it was a super typhoon with 145  kt winds (165mph) and gusts pushing toward 160 kts (185mph).  All along, it had been forecast to make the turn in the northwest Philippines Sea and swing toward Japan and while doing so, weaken rather rapidly as it encounters strong upper level wind shear and moves into a baroclinic zone (a frontal boundary) and become extra tropical as it accelerates to the northeast. 

Click Image for Color IR WPac Loop

Now, apparently officials are expecting rain totals of up to 20 inches, which is relatively benign but still a little more elevated than one might expect from a fast moving storm.  I suspect that the mountains of Honshu are expected to enhance the rain totals and that is the reason for that expectation.  There is some question as to whether or not the storm will run right over Tokyo, to the west of Tokyo or just to the east of Godzilla’s favorite stomping ground but the official forecast has been consistent with it running just west of the largest city in Japan.  There will be gusty wind and high seas with elevated sea levels in Tokyo Bay, but I suspect the rain deluge will be the biggest issue in mountainous regions. 

Melor Vertical Temp Anomaly 21Z 10.07.09

Now, what makes a tropical cyclone different from a typical storm.  Both are low pressure but a typical storm is one that has a cold core.   Most of the time you expect to have colder air aloft and convection is supported by warmer air below along with certain wind dynamics.  A characteristic that makes a tropical cyclone distinctive from a normal area of low pressure is that the core is warm. It’s called a warm core low.  A good strong tropical cyclone will have much warmer air aloft than at the surface at the center.  The storm feeds off of warm ocean waters and in order for one to get going, you need to have water temperatures of at least 26.5 C (80 F) water temperatures. 

Parma Vertical Temp Anomaly 2048Z 10.07.09

In the case of Parma, (see JTWC discussion below) it was sitting over the same water for some time while it was northwest of the Philippines.  It was washing away the warm water on the surface and colder water was coming to the surface and so it began to kill itself.  In the case of Typhoon Melor, its been moving right along and so has maintained its tropical characteristics.  Even now as its running into a hostile environment, it still has warmer temperatures aloft as seen to the upper right.  To the left is the weaker Parma that still has a decent circulation but its warm core is not as distinct as the stronger Melor.  But, it is still a warm core low so Parma is still a tropical cyclone.   However, it has been downgraded at this time to a tropical depression because the winds have backed off so much.

Parma Forecast Track

Now, Parma has been meandering across the northern part of the Philippines and actually may be just off the northeastern coast in the Philippines Sea.  For all intents and purposes, its been stationary but officially its been drifting northeast.  The biggest signifincance with this is that with the center of circulation over the water, it may be able to at least maintain its weak stature if not actually increase a bit  in intensity. As it is, Parma’s rain over the Philippines on Wednesday was sparse enough for clean up efforts to remain robust in Manila, where it is said that the garbage and debris blocking the streets is such that it may take two months to get things back to something close to normal.  The track of Parma will not help for the next couple of days.  A ridge of high pressure is building to the northeast in China and will move in to the north behind Melor.  As it does, Parma will begin a drift back toward the west.  As of this report, Parma was starting to show signs of convenction increasing as its over the water and so, as Parma drifts back across the Philippines, it will bring more rain. 

30 Day Avg Daily Rainfall anomaly

 Probably not as much as they had with the initial landfall but anything they get is too much.  Take a look at the top of the page at the average rainfall in the region over the past 30 days.  Thats an average of over 20 mm a day or about .80 inches.  Now, much of that fell with Ketsana when they got their monthly total in Manila in about 12 hours.  The rainfall anomoly is to the left and so it shows just how much more rain the northern Philippines has received in the last 30 days than  the average. Its about 15mm a day more than average or about .60 inches per day.  So, any additional rain will be no help.  The storm will acclerate to the west and head to China.  As it moves across the South China Sea with the ridge to the north building, it will get into an environment that will be favorable for re-development.   The good news is that it will probably run into land before it can become too strong again (back to tropical storm status) but its certain to bring heavy rains to the landfall location, particularly to the right of where the eye crosses the land.

DEPRESSION PARMA Discussion warning #40

WDPN33 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA)//
WARNING NR 40//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TS PARMA HAS CROSSED NORTHERN LUZON AND
IS NOW BACK OVER WATER IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. DEEP CONVECTION
WANED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED OVER LAND, THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SOME
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). PARMA CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN IN A VERY WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS IT SITS IN A COL REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON CONSISTENT POSITION FIXES BY
RJTD AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTD AND RJTD.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE THE
LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B.  TS PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD IN A VERY
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PARMA IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS BACK OVER NORTHERN LUZON.
    C. BEYOND TAU 48, TS PARMA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CHINA,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD. AS THE STEERING
INFLUENCE BECOMES MORE DEFINED BY TAU 72, PARMA WILL START TO PICK UP TRACK
SPEED THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND RE-INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS
GENERALLY AGREE WITH AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE WEST, THOUGH THE TIMING
AND DEGREE OF THIS TURN VARIES WIDELY. THIS FORECAST LEANS ON THE
EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY THE UKMO AND ECMWF.//

TYPHOOH MELOR Discussion warning 34

WDPN34 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 34//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TY MELOR IS POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
AND IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO
THE NORTHEAST BY THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE 071002Z
37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS EROSION IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE EYE WALL AS WELL AS THE APPEARANCE OF DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS IN LINE WITH THE LAST SIX RJTD
RADAR FIXES AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS A ROUGH AVERAGE OF THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD, PGTW AND KNES.
3. FORECAST REASONING
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY MELOR WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BARO-
CLINIC ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 08 TO 10
HOURS AS MINIMAL TYPHOON. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, TY MELOR WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS HONSHU WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. BY
TAU 24 HOUR, MELOR SHOULD ATTAIN FULL BAROCLINICITY AND PASS EAST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, AS A STRONG, JET-SUPPORTED BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THE
MODEL AIDS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A LANDFALL SCENARIO WEST
OF TOKYO, JAPAN. HOWEVER, THE UKMO TRACKER, EGGR, IS THE EASTERN
OUTLIER AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM ROUGHLY 20 NM WEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN.
THIS FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE MELOR AS FAR EAST AS THE EGRR TRACKER,
THOUGH IT DOES TRACK EAST OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS.//

Parma Parked Over Philippines; Typhoon Makes Turn Toward Japan October 6, 2009

Parma(pepeng) Satellite Image 1130Z 1006 Still looks rather impressive

For a more recent update on Typhoon Melor as it makes landfall in Japan and Parma still in the Philippines, CLICK HERE

Water Vapor Image 2030Z 10.06 click image for latest loop

The tropical storm formally known as Typhoon Parma has followed the general track that I outlined several days ago.  The satellite image above shows that the storm still has a very impressive structure considering that it has spent much time of cooling, upwelling waters and has not been completely over the water for some time.  The satellite water vapor image and loop is not overly impressive as the storm center is now over land in the Luzon province of the Philippines. This recent news report says its not over the Philippines and won’t make landfall, but the satellite says otherwise. So far, Parma has taken 22 Filipino lives.   A ship sank in the rough South China Sea, courtesy of Parma  You can detect some convection that shows up a little better on the Infrared color satellite image above. 

Click Image for Most Recent Color IR Loop

Parma has reacted as I suggested that it might a few days ago and as the GFS model has been consistently suggesting over time.  The NOGAPS also came around to that way of thinking but the official forecast from the JTWC did not reflect this potential in its official forecast until this morning, though they did make mention of it in their discussion.  While Parma is located over the Philippines, the threat of heavy rains will persist.  Parma dropped very heavy rain in the southern portions of Taiwan and the mountainous regions of the Philippines will be under the threat of landslides until the storm gets picked up by an expanding ridge in China which will take the storm to the west back into the South China Sea.  A note for those of you in Southeast Asia:  The Joint Typhoon Warning Center discussion below indicates that the environment in the South China Sea will be conducive to re-intensification as Parma moves westward toward mainland Asia.

Parma(pepeng)Forecast Track 18Z 10.06 click image for latest update

WDPN33 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA)//
WARNING NR 36//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA) HAS MAINTAINED A STRONG CON-
VECTIVE SIGNATURE CHARACTERIZED BY MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED
TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF LUZON OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. TS PARMA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A BREAK OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT PARMA'S RECENT SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT CAN
BE ATTRIBUTED TO SOME INTERACTION WITH TYPHOON MELOR, LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 675 NM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND KNES AND THE CURRENT POSITION IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 060935Z WINDSAT IMAGE, WHICH CAPTURED THE SYSTEM JUST
PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE THE
LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B.  AS TYPHOON MELOR CRESTS ITS SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND
TRACKS TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES, TS PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF LUZON.
BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE SOME ENERGY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
    C. BEYOND TAU 48, TS PARMA WILL START TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CHINA WHICH
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD. AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE
BECOMES MORE DEFINED BY TAU 72, PARMA WILL START TO PICK UP TRACK
SPEED THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND RE-INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS
GENERALLY AGREE WITH AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE WEST, THOUGH THE TIMING
AND DEGREE OF THIS TURN VARIES WIDELY AS PARMA CURRENTLY SITS IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THIS FORECAST LEANS ON THE EGRR TRACKER
PROVIDED BY THE UKMO AND THE EXTENDED-RANGE FORECASTS PROVIDED BY THE
ECMWF.//
NNNN

W Pac Infrared Satellite 2030Z 10.06 click image for latest loop

Typhoon Melor continues to progress as forecast.  The slight interaction with Parma that caused Parma to slide farther south and southeast back to the Philippines resulted in a slight northwestward hitch in the path of Melor as it moved across the northwestern Philippines Sea.  The result of this is that the curving of motion took place farther west than earlier anticipated and the northeastward track has now set the stage for the Typhoon to run up the largest Japanese Island of Honshu and eventually close to Tokyo.  However,  as the storm rounds the edge of the ridge of high pressure that is steering it, Melor starts to get sheered by unfavorable upper level winds.  The latest satellite imagery indicates this deterioration has already begun.  As it accelerates northeast, it will encounter land after landfall south of Kyoto,  Japan and continue to interact with the Japanese mainland and come into a hostile environment as it begins to transition into an extra-tropical cyclone.  The fact that it will be going through a deterioration stage will mean only minimal typhoon strength winds as it goes across Japan and the fact that it will be increasing in forward speed will limit its rainfall potential.  Nevertheless, the Japanesese topography should enhance the rainfall potential, particularly on the eastern slopes of the mountains and so heavy rain is likely only the eastern third of Japan. 

Typhoon Melor 1130Z 1006 Losing Some Symmetry

WDPN34 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR) HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS THOUGH RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO ERODE IN THE
NORTHWESTWERN QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES
THAT POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AS TY MELOR IS CRESTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON DIVORAK FIXES

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track 18Z 10.06 click on image for latest update

BY PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. IN ADDITION, THE SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE
WAS 113 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY MELOR WILL CREST THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WILL START TO ACCELERATE
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS, TY MELOR WILL START TO ENCOUNTER MORE UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF KYOTO, JAPAN.
ADDITIONALLY, MELOR WILL START TO ENGAGE WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AROUND TAU 24 AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48.
THE MODEL AIDS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A LANDFALL SCENARIO WEST
OF TOKYO, JAPAN. HOWEVER, THE UKMO TRACKER, EGGR, IS THE EASTERN
OUTLIER AS IT TRACKS THE SYSTEM OVER TOKYO, JAPAN. THIS FORECAST DOES
NOT TAKE MELOR AS FAR EAST AS THE EGRR TRACKER, THOUGH IT DOES TRACK
CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS.//

Parma Forecast Track Dangerously Close to the Philippines; Melor Has Sight on Tokyo October 6, 2009

W Pacific color IR 2330Z 10.05.09 (click image for loop)

for a more recent update on Parma (pepeng) and Typhoon Melor, CLICK HERE

Parma Forecast Track JTWC

The former Typhoon Parma forecast track (JTWC discussion below) is getting uncomfortably close to Luzon in the Philippines.  Basically what is happening is that the powerful Super Typhoon Melor (JTWC discussion below) is racing west-northwestward across the Philippines Sea and its substantial flow is taking the drifting Tropical Storm Parma back south from the same direction that it came.   Melor is being affected a little by this binary interaction with Parma and is now forecast to move a little more northwest prior to its shift in direction.  Typhoon Melor gets caught up in a strong southwesterly flow and it shoots to the northeast and begins to get sheared in the process.  That would weaken Melor as it moves up along the western coast of Japan, though the most recent forecast tracks have been consistently running the storm either across Tokyo Bay or just at the entrance to Tokyo Bay.  However, this latest forecast track has the storm swinging farther west(due to Parma) and therefore the northeastern track has Melor streaking inland over the top of Tokyo itself.  It  remains to be seen if that track comes about but Melor is expected to be a minimum typhoon at that time.   I suspect since it had been so formidable and because of its forward momentum, it will probably have a higher storm surge than what might normally be expected with a weakening typhoon that is transitioning to extra-tropical status.  On the other hand, its quick pace would also mean that the threat for extreme rainfall in Japan may be reduced.

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track JTWC

As for Parma, the forecast suggests that the storm does not strengthen as it moves back south or south-southeast because its moving very slowly back over water that is already been churned up.  That would mean that essentially the warm water on the surface has been blown around and cooler water from below has come up to take its place. Its called upwelling and is why a tropical cyclone needs to stay on the move if its going to survive.    Nevertheless, the issue with the Philippines and particularly the area around Manila, is rainfall and just because  the intensity decreases doesn’t mean that heavy rains are not possible.  Remember, Ketsana was just a tropical storm and flooding from it killed nearly 300 people and some 200 more in Southeast Asia.  Now the boys at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center do kick the storm out to the west before it comes back across the Philippines but it may be close enough to cause problems.  In the meantime, the forecast calls for an increase in intensity as it kicks west and that could mean problems down the road for the same parts of Southeast Asia, namely Vietnam, that also had trouble with Ketsana.

Mon 18Z NOGAPS valid 00Z Wed

Mon 12Z GFS valid 00Z Wed

Here is what is troubling.  I only have access to the 12Z run of the GFS and the 18Z run of the NOGAPS.  Previously, it was the GFS that kept on wanting to take Parma back over the Philippines, most notably right over Manila.  Now, Parma is kinda stuck between a ridge to the west and ridge to the east.  Its got nothing to steer it except the little bit of influence south by Melor.  The thinking is that the ridge to the west will be dominant and take Parma west.  The Joint Typhoon Warning Center seems to be discounting the GFS and NOGAPS as indicated by this sentence in their discussion:  “The available numeric guidance are in wide disagreement with the GFS and NOGAPS attempting an eventual turn to the Northeast and the European and EGRR and ECMWF favoring and eventual westerly track into the South China Sea.”  My concern is that the GFS has been consistent in wanting to bring the storm back over the Philippines one way or another. 

Mon 18Z NOGAPS valid 00Z Thu

Mon 12Z GFS valid 00z Thu

Now, the NOGAPS has jumped on board with that thinking, at least for this model run.  This storm has been exteremly difficult to track due to so many variable influences and the fact that its kinda gotten stuck in no man’s land without strong steering guidance.  In my view, it is still beyond human capabilities to make any definitive statement concerning the ultimate fate in relation to Parma.  I think its safe to say that rain will continue to fall over Luzon, whether or not its intense heavy rain over an extended period of time remains to be seen and we’ll just have to wait and see whether the influence of Melor will be sufficient to run the storm all the way back to the Philippines or if the ridge to the west will nose in strong enough and fast enough to take it away.  Either way, it remains to be seen whether, given the proximity of the storm to the Philippines in any scenario and that it currently has decent upper level venting to allow for development of convection, if the storms move over the islands in the counter-clockwise flow cause more flooding problems.  The government of the Philippines seem to be better prepared and seems to be ready for any eventuality. 

WDPN33 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING
NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN BEGUN TO FLARE OVER THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA). STRONG VENTING TO
THE NORTHEAST HAS HELPED THE SYSTEM RECUPERATE SOME OF ITS
DEEP CONVECTION LOST NEARLY 24 HOURS AGO FROM THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR GRADIENT IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. THE
STORM HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND REMAINS
IN THE LUZON STRAIT.
3.   FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED BEYOND TAU 72 IN ORDER TO
REFLECT DECREASED CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT
THIS QUASISTATIONARY STATE BEFORE DAY 5. AS IS TYPICAL IN A
WEAK OR AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE MODEL TRACKERS
ARE HANDLING THE SITUATION POORLY.
    B. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OFF THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF LUZON FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THERE ARE STILL SOME
INDICATIONS AMONG THE MODEL FIELDS THAT THE STORM WILL
EVENTUALLY PULL OUT TO THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES OVER SOUTHERN CHINA, BUT
AGAIN, THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY. INTENSIFICATION IS NOT
LIKELY BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND UPWELLING OF COOL, SUB-SURFACE WATER. HOWEVER,
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MENTIONED IN PARA 2.A. THE FORECAST REFLECTS A QUASI-
STATIONARY STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A SOUTHERLY DRIFT.
    C. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY AT DAY 4 AND
BEYOND, FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DECREASED OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT FROM UPWELLING. INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASED
IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD TO REFLECT THE INCREASED LIKLIHOOD
OF THIS SCENARIO. //

WDPN34 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (MELOR) IS CURRENTLY A 135 KNOT
SYSTEM,BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FINAL-T (6.0) AND
CURRENT INTENSITY (7.0) FROM THE PGTW DVORAK FIX. THE SYSTEM
HAS TRACKED FROM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 050600Z TO NORTHWESTWARD
AT 051200Z AND HAS SLOWED BY 2 KNOTS. THE DECREASED TRACK SPEED
AND INCREASED NORTHWARD TURN ARE BOTH PRECURSORS TO RECURVATURE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NEAR THE CAROLINE ISLANDS IN MICRONESIA
HAS BEGUN TO ENCROACH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AS A
RESULT, FAVORABLE VENTING INTO THIS FEATURE HAS CEASED.
UNRELATED, THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS GROWN CONSIDERABLY,
AND THE EYE IS AT ITS LARGEST DIAMETER YET (32NM). MORE
RECENTLY, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED TO
THE NORTHWEST AS THE STY NEARS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
EAST COAST OF ASIA.
3. FORECAST REASONING
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. STY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BEFORE ENCOUNTERING
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NEAR OKINAWA. THE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED TO VENT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AND MAY ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, SHORTLY THEREAFTER, THE TYPHOON WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
DUE TO EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH WILL ALSO ERODE THE
STEERING RIDGE AND INITIATE RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES.
INTERACTION WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY (NEAR 30N) WILL
PROMPT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, JUST TO THE SOUTH OF TOKYO.
THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
CALLS FOR PASSAGE OF MELOR AS A TRANSITIONING CYCLONE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF JAPAN. THE TYPHOON WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY
TAU 72.//

Parma Regaining Strength, Super Typhoon Melor May Threaten Tokyo October 5, 2009

W Pac Color IR Satellite-Click Image for Loop

for an update on Parma and Typhoon Melor CLICK HERE

Parma (pepeng) Forecast Track JTWC

Tropical Storm Parma appears to be on the verge of recovering from the influence of an upper level trof that appeared out of nowhere out of China and dove down to mess up the storm.  So much did it disrupt Parma (pepeng) that it fell from the classification of a typhoon to that of a tropical storm.  Now that the trof is lifting out to the northeast, satellite imagery is indicating perhaps some re-development of convection which would coincide with intensification.  This is not totally unexpected as, even when Parma got zapped, the low level mean circulation remained strongly in tact.  So, as Super Typhoon Melor moves quickly across the Philippine Sea, Parma will drift to the south or southwest.  The official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been consistent for 24 hours for the first time in days, which tells me that their confidence is increasing.  They indicate that most models show a big ridge over China becoming a dominant feature to steer Parma away to the west.  Indeed the US Navy NOGAPS shows depicts exactly that and takes  small, compact storm into Viet Nam. 

GFS 18Z 10.06.09

However, the GFS continues to not play along.  Previously, it was insisting on a track drifting to the south and then southeast around the periphery of Typhoon Melor as it went by to the east.  Now, what it seems to want to do is have Parma more or less get cut off from everything else.  Not influenced by an ridge over China, nor anything else and too far from Melor to be affected except that it drifts south to the northern tip of the Philippines and then it just sits there for a few days.  It tends to feature heavy banding on the backside whacking the western coast of Luzon…which is not good.  As it stands now, at least 15 have been killed by Parma and more rain is expected in Luzon.

NOGAPS 18Z 10.06.09

A couple of things here…first off the JTWC points out that, while they re-intensify Parma to minimal typhoon status in the next 24-36 hours, they mention that upwelling may mess that up and, if it doesn’t and follows thier forecast, then it would run into a sheering environment and cooler water as it approach Viet Nam.  If Parma were to do what the GFS suggests,then upwelling I would think would be a factor and so it may not be a typhoon in that instance.  But, so what…Ketsana wasn’t a typhoon either.  It’s the rain potential that is the fear.

W Pacific Water Vapor Image 230Z 10.05 click image for loop

As for Typhoon Melor (JTWC Discussion) its a super typhoon with winds of 140 kts kicking up gusts to 160 kts.  For those of us in the United States that would be about 160 mph winds with 185 mph gusts or a category 5 hurricane.  It’s still a long way off but the forecast track has shifted some with the big curve to the northeast when it is in the Luzon Strait coming a tad later, which means that the track now takes it right over Tokyo Bay instead of just offshore. 

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track

However, by that time, Melor would have run into an unfavorable upper level environment and it would have weakened to a minimal typhoon.  But, it would have also picked up forward speed.  In this scenario, I would think that the storm would create a storm surge higher than one might associate with a minimal typhoon due to its forward momentum and the fact that it had been such an intense storm prior to passing over Tokyo Bay.  But, were talking about 3 or 4 days out and there are many things that can happen. Intensity forecasts are notoriously difficult to pin down that many days out.

WDPN33 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR
30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, TROPICAL STORM (TS) PARMA HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IN THE
BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE
REMAINED AT A 3.0/4.0. THE FINAL-T NUMBER IS BASED ON THE PATTERN-T,
VICE A WRAP, BECAUSE THE CONVECTION IS TOO WEAK. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO
BECOME LARGELY QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
HAVING ONLY MOVED 30NM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
3.   FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO THE NORTHWEST OF
LUZON IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MILD RE-INTENSIFICATION EXISTS NOW THAT THE TROUGH MENTIONED IN PARA
2.A. HAS PASSED TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER WILL
BEGIN TO STALL INTENSIFICATION OR EVEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TS 19W GIVEN THAT IT
IS IN A WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IF RIDGING BUILDS
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, THEN THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
PULL OUT TO THE SOUTHWEST, AS THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS
INDICATE. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REBUILDS
FASTER (AND STRONGER) THAN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST THEN THAT WILL
BECOME THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR PARMA.
    C. IN THE LATER PERIOD THE SYSTEM SHOULD START TO ACCELERATE
ALONG THE FAVORED TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. 19W
WILL MOVE INTO LOWER AMOUNTS OF FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THIS TRACK AND START TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN.//
NNNN

Typhoon Parma,Typhoon Melor forecast aided by satellite with origins of 52 yrs ago October 4, 2009

Western Pacific Color IR 1730Z 10.04.09

For a more recent update on Parma and Typhoon Melor CLICK HERE

Parma JTWC Forecast Track

Typhoon Parma forecasting continues to be a daunting task. More than a day ago, I told you of the prospects of the storm potentially coming back toward the Philippines in reaction to Typhoon Melor (JTWC warning/discussion text)  passing by to the east. I suspect that the forecasters knew this too but they were trying not to alarm the populus until more descernable evidence showed up. Now, the media has finally gotten clued into the possibility. “It is possible that it (Parma) will make U-turn and will hit Luzon again,” said forecaster Nathaniel Cruz. I mentioned that a couple of days ago. I want to emphasize that its just a possibility at this point. So far, the storm has not been handled well consistently by any model and the official forecasts have been all over the place. But, the potential for a return visit remains on the table.

W. Pacific Water Vapor Image/Loop

Those are ifs and buts so lets look at whats really going on.  A trof emerged out of China and dove down toward Parma.  That has done some damge to the storm sufficiently weakening to to Tropical Storm status.  That is good news.  Bad news is that it still has pretty good looking circulation.  The satellite imagery shows just how much the storm has eroded.   Northern convection is almost absent and an eye is tough to find.  As long as it keeps that circulation, once the trof moves by, then it could start to regain intensity…BUT…if it does stay pretty much quasi-stationary…or generally in the same spot, what will happen is that the warm water on the ocean surface gets washed around and colder water below comes to the surface to take its place.  This is called upwelling and a tropical cyclone cannot stay in one place for long and expect to live because cold water will come to the surface and it needs water temperatures of at least 26.5 degrees C to survive.  So, will it stay in one place?  The fate of Tropical Storm Parma may fall to Super Typhoon Melor.

Typhoon Melor JTWC Forecast Track

How these two storms are related is as follows.  Typhoon Melor is a very well developed Super Typhoon.  Its forecast track takes it across the Philippine Sea and swings all the way to the eastern Luzon Strait.  It has a counter-clockwise flow.  Now, Typhoon Parma is meandering in the northeastern South China Sea or the western Luzon Strait.  As the two storms get close, the flow around Melor will tend to send Parma down to the south.  Meanwhile, the flow around Parma may swing Melor a bit more northwest.  But, Melor is the dominant storm and has much greater forward momentum so the effects of Parma on it would be less distinct though it may be significant enough to swing Melor closer to Japan than might otherwise happen.  Japan is going to at least be affected by the western edge of Melor.  Meanwhile, the big question with Parma will be if the flow around Melor is strong enough and lasts long enough to swing Parma south and then southeast back toward the Philippines, which could be catastrophic because in all liklihood, this would take it back over Manila.  But, several of the models want to bring the storm back south and then west…as Melor moves quickly to the northeast, Parma gets slung out before it comes back around to the Philippines and instead moves southwest and then west toward Vietnam, which isn’t good for them either because they too had great affect from last week’s Tropical Storm Ketsana.  The variables remain great and so the confidence in the longer term forecast remains questionable.  See the 15Z Forecast Discussion/Prognastic reasoning for Parma at the bottom of the post.

W Pacific IR Satellite Loop

I’ve had some queries regarding how to track Typhoon Parma and Typhoon Melor.  If you click on this link for the Western Pacific Water Vapor Image Loop, you will get the most recent imagery and it will provide the best viewing of the eye for either storm if it exists.  If you click on the maps of the forecast track for either storm, the most recent update of the forecast track and the most recent position will also appear.  We kinda take this satellite stuff for granted nowadays, but the ability to track tropical cyclones really hasn’t been around too long. The first storm tracked using satellite imagery was Hurricane Camille in August 1969.  It just happened that that storm developed rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico from a long lived tropical storm into a hurricane with winds of up to 200 mph.  The forecast was difficult but with the satellite technology available, the forecasters were able to improve their ability and perhaps many lives were spared with an advanced warning that they may not have otherwise have had.  You can find the history of the origin of man-made space satellites below…

On This Date In History: Speaking of satellites…on this date in 1957, many Americans were quaking in their boots. The Soviet Union launched Sputnik, the first artificial satellite. It was a small metal sphere with a few antennae sticking out. It weighed about 157 pounds and emitted a radio beeping sound heard by millions around the earth as news readers announced the feat. The frightful thing about the development in many Americans’ minds was that the Soviets had proven they could launch an intercontinental ballistic missile. If they could deliver a metal sphere into space, then it was plausible they could deliver an atomic warhead into Uncle Sam’s back yard. Sputnik came to be known as a “baby moon” because, like the moon, it was a satellite of the earth and both had spherical shapes. That led many Americans to fear that the Soviets would gain a strategic edge in outer space development….perhaps build space platforms or a base on the moon from which they could make sneak attacks on the USA by dropping bombs from above. There’s a great line from The Right Stuff  in which Lyndon Johnson says, “I for one do not intend to go to bed at night by the light of a communist moon!” The US Army launched Explorer I on January 31, 1958 as Americas first artificial satellite.

Today's Weather Satellites are descendents of Sputnik

The Eisenhower Administration decided it was time to get serious and so on October 1, 1958 the President announced the creation of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to bring all space efforts under one umbrella. President Kennedy made it a national goal to put a man on the moon by the end of the 1960′s. He made no mention of it but most Americans thought the idea was to beat the Soviets to the moon. We did and that was that….we also got Tang, Teflon, mini-computers, microwave ovens and other things but not Velcro. That was invented by a Swiss Mountain climber in the 1940′s and 1950′s…it took him a while to develop it. I think he got his inspiration from his dog getting grass burrs in his coat following a mountain walk.

Louisville Weather Bottom Line:  Previously, it appeared that a warm front would be lifted our way on Monday and increase rain chances then.  There had been some notion that would happen.  The GFS had been most bullish on this solution but its taken it off the board.  The Canadian Model has short waves to the south but moves them east instead of into the Ohio Valley.   So, Monday will have a mix of clouds and sun with rain chances increasing on Tuesday as a warm front/cold front combo works its way through.  So, look for rain Tuesday, maybe some t’storms.  Rain chances will carry into Tuesday night and then reinforcing cool air coming in for the rest of the week.  The cool pattern appears to be interested in sticking around for at least another 10 days.

WDPN33 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) PARMA HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. A FAIRLY NEW UPPER LEVEL FEATURE (SHORTWAVE TROUGH) APPEARS
TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAPID DEPLETION OF PARMA’S DEEP
CONVECTION. THE TROUGH ORIGINATED OVER CENTRAL CHINA AND HAS SINCE
CONTINUED TO DIG EQUATORWARD. SKEW-T SOUNDINGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CHINA INDICATE THE TROUGH EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTH AS 23.5N,
LESS THAN 4 DEGREES SHY OF PARMA’S LATITUDE. A VERY TIGHT SHEAR
GRADIENT, AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS, ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH, CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE CURRENT VOID OF
DEEP CONVECTION A STRONG SURFACE CIRCULATION REMAINS. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE FALLEN TO A 3.0/4.0. THE FINAL-T NUMBER IS
BASED ON THE PATTERN-T, VICE A WRAP, BECAUSE THE CONVECTION IS TOO
WEAK. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO GENERALLY TRACKED FROM NORTHWESTWARD TO
MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. 
3.   FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM BECAUSE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DROPPED BELOW 65 KNOTS.
    B. THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO THE NORTHEAST OF
LUZON IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
REINTENSIFICATION EXISTS ONCE THE TROUGH MENTIONED IN PARA 2.A.
PASSES TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER WILL BEGIN TO
STALL INTENSIFICATION OR EVEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROUGH MAY STRIP THE CIRCULATION OF SO
MUCH CONVECTION THAT IT IS UNABLE TO REBOUND BEFORE UPWELLING BEGINS
TO CUT OFF INTENSIFICATION ALL TOGETHER. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TS 19W GIVEN THAT IT IS IN A WEAK AND
ILL-DEFINED STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IF RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM, THEN STORM WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE
SOUTHWEST, AS THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS INDICATE. ON THE
OTHER HAND, IF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REBUILDS FASTER (AND STRONGER)
THAN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST THEN THAT WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM FOR PARMA. THERE IS ALSO THE EXPECTATION THAT IF
THE STORM IS UNABLE TO REACQUIRE DEEP CONVECTION, THE TRACKERS WILL
INITIALIZE A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH ERRONEOUS TRACK SOLUTIONS.
    C. THERE IS NO STRONG INDICATION, THAT BEYOND DAY 4, THE CYCLONE
WILL BEGIN TO BE PICKED UP BY ANY RIDGING/FLOW SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
GUIDE IT OUT OF THIS QUASISTATIONARY STATE. AS SUCH, THE FORECAST
REMAINS SLOW, BUT NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.

Typhoon Parma May Not Be Done With Philippines; Typhoon Melor Still To Come October 4, 2009

Typhoon Parma Looking Better Organized at 1730Z Oct 3 2009

for an update on typhoon parma(pepeng) and typhoon melor, CLICK HERE

Typhoon Parma Forecast Track 00Z 10.04.09

While Typhoon Parma made its way through the Philippines, it took out crops and infrastructure and produced damage in some of the towns and cities, but so far only 3 have been reported killed.  Some reports around the world claim that the storm is moving toward Taiwan.  Taiwan has even issued warnings and made evacuations.  But, I’m not so sure that Parma is done with the Philippines.  A look at the Western Pacific Water Vapor Imagery Loop shows appears to show an eye reforming.  The official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been all over the place, indicating that there are lots and lots of variables.  Previously, we’ve seen the long term track toward Taiwan, then to the northeast, then having it become quasi stationary just northwest of Manila, then having it move north-northwest before looping back around in the wake of Typhoon Melor (JTWC Discussion) and out to the northeast. 

GFS 18Z Oct 5 Parma Over Manila

 

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track 00Z 10.04.09

The new forecast reflects the fact that the storm has moved offshore to the north of the island and has been moving west or west northwest very slowly.  The idea is that the storm will meander offshore of the northwestern coast of the Philippines.  The boys at the JTWC acknowledge that the forecast is very difficult and acknowledge that there are other plausible scenarios. Its extremely complicated because there is a typhoon to the east, a storm to the west, a ridge to the north and somewhere in between, there is a trof.  While I have no idea where its going to go, I think that it is entirely possible that the Philippines is not done with Parma.  If you look at the US Navy NOGAPS model, you see that at 18Z Oct 5,the storm is centered just west of Manila…offshore.  That would bring rain to the islands.  The GFS has the storm right over Manila at the same time.  The NOGAPS brings Parma right over the top of Manila at 18Z on the 6th. 

NOGAPS 18Z Oct 5 Parma NW of Philippines

There are other solutions out there but most of them are not too good for the Philippines.  In fact, if the GFS solution verifies, which is probably won’t completely, then Japan would get brushed by Typhoon Melor and then 3 days later get brushed by Typhoon Parma..both running right along the mouth of Tokyo Bay.  But…these storms have not been playing ball and all options remain on the table.

WDPN33 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH OF

NOGAPS 6Z Oct 7 Parma Over Manila

MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER IN THE
STRAIT OF LUZON AND HAS STARTED TO REGAIN ORGANIZATION AS SEEN IN
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. A 032224Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL WITH GOOD STRUCTURE AND AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE OVER
WATER TO THE NORTHWEST OF LUZON. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT WESTWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS IN A RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTER LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3.   FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. THE FORECAST HAS THE STR
OVER SOUTHERN CHINA BECOMING THE PREDOMINATE STEERING INFLUENCE ON
THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 72 AND TRACKING THE 19W INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA.

W. Pacific IR Satellite-Parma and Melor are easily found

    B. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE LUZON
STRAIT AS THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, LOCATED SOUTH OF JAPAN, ERODES
IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAVE TY 19W IN A VERY
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, REMOVED FROM THE INFLUENCES OF THE STR TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN
CHINA. DUE TO THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW, THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 72 AND THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FACILITATE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO UPWELLING OF COOLER
WATER, WHICH IS TYPICAL OF SLOW-MOVING SYSTEMS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 72.  THIS IS
INDICATIVE OF A SYSTEM WITH WEAK STEERING INFLUENCES THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER AIMLESSLY. THE ONLY MODEL THAT DOES NOT SHOW
THIS MOTION IS GFS, WHICH SUPPORTS STRENGTHENING OF THE STR TO THE
EAST AND A SHARP TURN AND ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND TY
20W. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS STILL A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE TRACK,
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING TY
20W FROM THE EAST, BUT BECOMING MORE UNLIKELY AS 19W CONTINUES TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD.
    C. AFTER TAU 72, THE STR OVER CHINA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A ZONAL TROUGH IN THE MIDLATITUDES. AS IT BUILDS, IT
WILL IMPART A WEAK INFLUENCE ON 19W THAT WILL SLOWLY DRAG THE SYSTEM
TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
WEST, AVAILABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECREASE AND NOT BE ABLE TO
SUPPORT A SLOW MOVING TYPHOON, AND INTENSITY WILL START TO SLOWLY
DECREASE IN THE LATE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
AFTER TAU 72 AS TO THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. ECMWF, TCLPS AND
JGSM  TAKE THE SYSTEM ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK AND EGRR AND
GFDN TAKE THE STORM ON A WESTERLY TRACK. NOGAPS KEEPS THE SYSTEM
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.//

Typhoon Parma Strikes Philippines; 1st Thanksgiving; 1st Iraq Independence Day October 3, 2009

Typhoon Parma Forecast Track 12Z 10.03.09

For an Update on Typhoon Parma and Typhoon Melor CLICK HERE

Typhoon Parma Satellite Image 1130Z 10.03.09

Typhoon Parma made landfall on the northeast coast of the the Philippines on Saturday.  Typhoon Parma’s struck   the Cagayan Province  with the worst typhoon conditions in a decade, some officials said.  Government officials were thankful that the storm wobbled a bit before landfall, although the damage is still extensive and there has been loss of life.  While some reports say that Manila was spared, other reports say that Manila had heavy rain on Friday and Saturday and officials were not sure about additional flooding in and around the capital.   I suspect that both reports are true.  Manila was spared from the full impact but the backside of the storm’s flow is off the South China Sea which would bring bands of heavy rain from the west or northwest.  And, it is probably true that local officials have no idea of the rain on the waterlogged areas around the capital will result in new flooding. 

Typhoon Parma had maximum winds of near 175 kph (about 110 mph) at landfall which was sufficient to wreak havoc in the Cagayan provincial capital of Tuguegarao where reports of extensive wind damage have come in as well as flooding.  The initial reports of three dead will likely be expanded.

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track

The official forecast track of Parma (Joint Typhoon Warning Center Discussion) has some of the elements that I discussed in the previous post as the storm neared the coast.  Parma will continue to bring rain to the northern part of the island as its forward momentum will slow down.  However, the current thinking is that the storm moves along the track first forecast several days ago,which is more northward toward Taiwan.   After doing so for a short time, the storm then moves a bit southeast and then loops back northeast.  This movement southeast/northeast movement would be in response to Typhoon Melor (JTWC Discussion) moving by to the east as it makes its way toward Japan.  The forecast track has been very difficult for quite some time and the Taiwan government is taking no chances as that island nation is  issuing warnings and evacuating some areas as a precaution, which is probably a pretty good idea.

On This Date In History: We’ve all enjoyed Thanksgiving Dinner and we all probably learned in grade school that the first Thanksgiving involved the Pilgirms and the native Indians of North America. But, the real first official Thanksgiving Holiday was proclaimed on this date in 1863 by President Lincoln, calling for an annual day of national Thanksgiving on the fourth Thursday of November. The president used the opportunity to thank the Union Army for the reversal of fortune in the Union effort by the victory at Gettysburg. President Washington had declared a “national day of thanksgiving and prayer” in 1789, but it didn’t become an annual event. In fact, Thomas Jefferson thought that such national events of demonstration towards a deity was not appropriate. Other presidents agreed until President Lincoln’s decree. President Franklin Roosevelt tried what I call a political move in 1939 when he moved the holiday to the third Thursday. However, I suppose its plausible to argue that Lincoln’s initial declaration was rooted in politics. Anyway, FDR was hoping to extend the Christmas shopping season. I guess he thought that by moving Thanksgiving he could pull the wool over American’s eyes and use the psychology of calling a different day Thanksgiving to get them to spend more money. Anyway, Congress had enough of the foolishness and in 1941 put the national holiday back to where President Lincoln put it in the first place.

King Faisal 1st of Iraq crowned by Brits in 1932

On This Date in 1932

Iraq gained independence. The region had been ruled by the Ottoman Empire, which dissolved at the conclusion of World War I. Britain occupied the area and was given a League of Nations mandate to govern the region in 1920. They set up a monarchy and granted independence in 1932. That government maintained strong military and economic ties with Britain and that resulted in numerous protests. In 1941, a pro-Axis (Germany, Italy, Japan) movement took hold and the UK intervened causing the Iraqi government to agree to back the good guys in the war. The monarchy got over thrown in 1958 and for the next 20 years, Iraq was ruled by a series of civilian and military governments until Saddam Hussein became dictator in 1979….a position he held until 2003. Saddam has since left to try to rule another world. However, from its 20th century history, its easy to see why there are skeptics that a democracy can flourish in the region. But, the global political situation is not as it was nor is the politics of the region so one cannot use history as a prescription for the future.

Weather Bottom Line:  Great weekend in store.  Highs in upper 60′s and lows in the 40′s. Rain chances return on Monday into Tuesday as the evolution of another system unfolds.