for a more recent update on Typhoon Lupit, CLICK HERE
The Philippines is still reeling from the effects of two tropical cyclones in as many weeks. Over 710 have been reported dead so far from the storms and the economy of the country has been severely affected. Yesterday, I posted the comments of Philippines President Gloria Arroyo that her country was a victim of climate change, not two typhoons, and was therefore entitled for compensation from the culprits, which presumably is the industrialized world. Well, the president and the rest of the country may have bigger fish to fry in the near term. They need to prepare for Typhoon Lupin. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center Typhoon Lupin Forecast Track takes the storm very near to the same landfall location as Typhoon Parma. From the forecast, one can ascertain that, unlike Parma or Ketsana before, Lupin will be on the upswing of its lifecycle, meaning that instead of a typhoon that has seen its better days, this one is forecast to be an intensifying tropical cyclone when it makes landfall. Two things. The landfall time is still several days away so the forecast is not a sure thing and any deviation of the track over the next 48 hours or so could greatly impact the eventual effect on the Philippines. Second is that the trend of the forecast was a little farther south than the current thinking. But, again, the alteration has not been that significant and any impact on the Philippines will be something for the locals to contend with considering the devastation that has occurred and the saturation of mountainous regions in the northern part of the country.
WDPN31 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT)// WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) LUPIT HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED TO ITS CURRENT STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS VERY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING OVERALL SYMMETRY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST A FEW DEGREES TO THE NORTH. THESE DYNAMICS ARE SUPPRESSING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONTRIBUTING TO THE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (4.0), RJTD (3.5) AND KNES (T3.5). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. TS 22W WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN EVEN MORE AS IT VEERS POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THIS STAIR-STEP MOVEMENT WILL BE MOMENTARY AS A SECONDARY LOBE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSUMES STEERING ON THE FOURTH DAY. C. BY TAU 72, TS LUPIT WILL RESUME ITS WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SECONDARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS TS 22W MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS NORTHERN PHILIPPINES THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36 WITH THE MODELS DEPICTING THE POLEWARD JOG IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AT VARYING DEGREES. WBAR HAS THE MOST EXTREME SOLUTION WITH A SHARP U-TURN TO THE RIGHT, AND GFDN AND NOGAPS ON A POLEWARDS RECURVE TOWARDS JAPAN. THE EUROPEAN MODELS - EGRR AND ECMWF, ARE MORE WESTWARD AND LEFT OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS LEFT OF CONSENSUS AND JUST RIGHT OF THE ECMWF