Hurricane Bill Losing Tropical Characteristics But Still Flogging Halifax, Nova Scotia August 23, 2009

Hurricane Bill Sunday 9:15:15 Z

Hurricane Bill NHC forecast track 11AM Sun 08.23.09

for a the final “Bill” discussion and cool photos and video of waves and other stuff from Hurricane Bill, CLICK HERE!

When I last posted on Bill, in my mind, it appeared that the beginnings of the end of Bill as a tropical system had begun.  The National Hurricane Center reports this morning that indeed, the transformation of Bill from tropical system into an extra-tropical cyclone is far enough along that they feel as if the winds aloft are no longer able to be efficiently brought down to the surface.  I think that’s an understatement based on the satellite image.  It doesn’t look like a tropical cyclone but instead an extra-tropical system.  Also, I had mentioned in the prior post abou that prospects of dry air getting into the middle.  The Water Vapor imagery clearly indicates that has indeed happened.  I had thought the storm would have picked up forward speed to about 40 mph by now but it is only up to 35 mph.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see it moving at closer to 50 mph before it gets to Scotland.  It would appear that the official forecast has discounted my complete speculation that there may be an opportunity for this to curve around the ridge back to Spain.  Apparently, the ridge extends back into Europe so that ain’t gonna happen. Nevertheless, I see that a couple of models on the spaghetti model graphic do indicate a curve back to Spain, so there is hope that I will be vindicated! 

Iceberg Resistant Hibernia Remains in Operation

At 9:50pm EDT there a buoy located 30 NM east of Nantucket reported winds of 21 kts gusting to 27 kts with 19 foot seas. Another 54nm SE of Nantucket had winds of 27 kts gusting to 38 kts with seas over 27 feet.   An interesting observation came at 12pm ADT from a Canadian buoy at the mouth of Halfax Harbour.  It indicated that the pressure was down .38″ in the past 3 hours and was falling rapidly.  That tells you that the center of the storm was still approaching. The pressure was at 29.28″   Winds were 29 kts gusting to 35 kts and the wave height was 14.4 feet.  A little farther out and to the Southeast, Buoy 44150 is located at 42.5 N and  64.02 W and had a steady pressure tendency at 29.12″.  This tells me that the center of the storm is there.  Winds at 12 ADT were 52 kts with gusts to nearly 70 kts.  Seas were running at nearly 40 feet.  So, it would appear from limited reports from a few buoys that Bill has minimal hurricane status winds but is kicking up some pretty big ocean swells.  A morning news report brought an interesting story that the giant Hibernia offshore platform would be operating normally.  Typically, when a storm passes through an oil field, the crews of production and drilling platforms are evacuated and operations are shut down.  That can be expensive but it lessens the risk for life and also the risk of an oil spill.  They evacuated Sable, which is a gas production platform…but the 98,200 barrel a day oil production Hibernia remains in operation.  That is rather remarkable.

Hurricane Bill Spaghetti Model 12Z 08.23.09

Hurricane Bill Spaghetti Intensity Model 12Z Sun

Bill Water Vapor 9:16:15Z 08.23.09

WTNT43 KNHC 231448
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

AFTER THE LAST AIR FORCE MISSION INTO BILL….JUST BEFORE 1200
UTC…THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO LOOK A LITTLE
LESS TROPICAL.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF
105 KT OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT AROUND 1100 UTC.  TYPICALLY THIS
WOULD SUPPORT A HIGHER INTENSITY OF GREATER THAN 75 KT.
HOWEVER…SINCE THE CYCLONE IS TRAVERSING COOLER WATERS…IT IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR IT TO TRANSPORT STRONG WINDS

Bill Visible Satellite 09:16:15Z 08.23.09

TO
THE SURFACE.  GIVEN THAT…ALONG WITH THE DETERIORATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN…THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75 KT.  BILL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM WITHIN A DAY OR SO AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH A BROADER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE BRITISH ISLES IN 3-4 DAYS.

CURRENT MOTION IS AROUND 045/29.  BILL SHOULD CONTINUE ACCELERATING
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT BECOMES WELL EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS
LIKELY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF BILL
INTERACTS WITH THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHEAST

Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) 08.22.09 12Z

ATLANTIC.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SWELLS ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD BE DIMINISHING TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/1500Z 43.3N  64.0W    75 KT
12HR VT     24/0000Z 46.3N  59.1W    65 KT
24HR VT     24/1200Z 49.0N  49.7W    55 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     25/0000Z 50.8N  37.4W    45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     25/1200Z 52.5N  26.5W    35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     26/1200Z 57.0N   8.0W    30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT     27/1200Z…MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Pink Sand From Hurricane Bill; Spaghetti Models Better Days Have Passed August 22, 2009

Hurricane Bill 1415Z Aug 22

For a more recent update on Hurricane Bill, CLICK HERE

Hurricane Bill passed by Bermuda and forced President and Secretary of State Clinton to end their Bermuda vacation early.  Bill was chased away by Bill.   Hurricane Bill tossed pink sand on the beaches of Bermuda. 

NHC official Hurricane Bill Fcst Track 8am Aug 22Hurricane Bill Spaghetti Model 12Z 08.22.09

Bill Spaghetti Model Intensity 12Z 08.22.09

Hurricane Bill Water Vapor Image 1415Z 08.22.09

I gotta say that Bill was looking pretty ragged late Friday.  The circulation and outflow had been displaced somewhat to the north and northeast for several days in response to light southwesterly winds.  But as they increased, it was even more non-circular on Friday.   It was going through an eyewall replacement cycle and the conventional wisdom was that it might be able to ramp up some today in one last hurrah before it went to die.  Well, there is no evidence of that, though the satellite image in some regards looks better than it did…more circular..but there is no eye.  I almost looks like its trying  lose its tropical characteristics already.  So, I would be of the mind that it has seen its better days and is in the beginning stages of losing its tropical characteristics and getting really messed up.  From this point forth, the shearing winds will do nothing but  increase and the water temperatures will do nothing but decrease.  

Hurricane Bill Visible Satellite Image 1415Z 08.22.09

In looking at the water vapor imagery, you see very dry air to the south of Bill and I wonder if that dry air doesn’t end up getting drawn into the storm, which would serve as a pitchfork if it got into the center.  The official track does not advertise a landfall, instead having it move more or less parallel to the Canadian Maritime coast.  But, if I were in Halifax or really anywhere on coastal Nova Scotia, I would evacuate.  The storm surge will still be significant.  Two interesting things are that it will be moving very fast so I could create a scenario in which the water rises very rapidly prior to the storm passing south of the coast and then it rushing out quickly as it passes with the backside winds shoving the water back out to sea.  The other is its ultimate fate.  The general storm track takes it toward Scotland, which would be interesting in itself.  But, if that ridge in the Atlantic is not established that far east, I”m wondering if it might not move more southeast eventually and go toward Spain and Portugal.  Speculation, but  interesting nonetheless.

Sea Surface Temps (SST) 12Z 08.21.09

WTNT43 KNHC 221442
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BILL HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THE T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 85 KNOTS AND THIS VALUE COULD
BE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK BILL THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL GIVE US A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII. BILL
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH TODAY BUT WITH COLD WATERS
AHEAD…A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. IN ABOUT 48
HOURS…THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AND BY 72 HOURS
BILL SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK. BILL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES ABOUT 20 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS
ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH
AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FORCE BILL TO RECURVE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY
PACKED…THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE
FORECAST TRACK BRINGS BILL TO THE WATERS JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
IN 24 HOURS. THEREFORE…ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR EASTERN REGIONS OF CANADA.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE ARRIVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND…CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/1500Z 35.1N  68.6W    85 KT
12HR VT     23/0000Z 38.0N  68.5W    85 KT
24HR VT     23/1200Z 42.5N  65.5W    75 KT
36HR VT     24/0000Z 46.0N  59.0W    65 KT
48HR VT     24/1200Z 49.5N  49.4W    50 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     25/1200Z 52.0N  24.0W    40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT     26/1200Z 58.0N   9.0W    30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     27/1200Z 63.0N   5.0W    20 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane Bill Spaghetti Models Indicate It Will Be Reluctant to Die August 21, 2009

Notice Sea Surface Temps Off NE US Coast Are Colder 12Z Aug 21

Bill Visible Satellite 2215Z Aug 21...Small Eye

For a more recent update on Hurricane Bill, CLICK HERE

 Hurricane Bill is providing a pretty good lesson on how hurricanes work and forecasting.  If you look at the National Hurricane Center Hurricane Bill Discussion, they note that the winds have decreased and that the pressure was up a bit to 954 mb.  Also, the satellite imagery makes it hard to find the eye.  The Hurricane Hunter Aircraft reports an eye of 14 miles.  If you recall, earlier it had been running about 35 miles and was clearly visible on the satellite images.  One thing that the discussion does not say is that the vortex message indicates that the eye is open in the Southwest quadrant.  On the surface, this all appears to mean that Bill is dying.  In a sense, it is because it is headed toward colder water and a more hostile environment….but not just yet.  Again, in the discussion it talks about a second wind maxima.  What appears to be going on is that Bill is going through another eyewall replacement cycle.  Most likely, the open part of the eye

2215z Aug 21 Bill Infared rainbow Satellite

is indicative of a deteriorating inner eye all and the second maxima is indicating that a new eye is forming.  The smaller eye is probably a result of the old eye collapsing in.  The pressure rise was not all that dramatic and fairly typical of a storm going through a replacement cycle.  The idea here is that as the storm bends on Saturday from its Friday evening 340 degree vector to a 360 degree heading, it will still be in a relatively weak shearing environment and be over warm water.  It will have completed the eyewall replacement cycle and so it should ramp up a bit in intensity.  This eyewall replacement process is why it is really tough for a mature hurricane to maintain a maximum intensity for a long period. For that reason, it is rare for a category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States.  I think its only happened 3 times..Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992 and a Florida hurricane in the 1920s or 1930s…maybe the Keys Hurricane.  The timing just has to be right..or wrong as the case may be. 

2215z aug 21 Bill Water Vapor Shows some trouble

Anyway, Bill’s uptick will probably not be back up to category 4 status and whatever increase in intensity will not last long.  The big long wave trof has made its way across the Ohio Valley and weekend temperatures will be in the 70′s over much of the region.  It’s a fall like pattern and Bill is behaving like a fall-like storm.  As Bill moves north….probably about the time its even with Washington DC, it will start to encounter strong southwesterly winds ahead of the trof and that will start to rip it up.  It will also be running into cold water and as it approaches Nova Scotia, Bill will start to take on a northeastward component and its forward speed  will increase rapidly and markedly. It will lose its tropical characteristics and probably be in Scotland by the middle of next week.  But, even though it may parallel the coast of Nova Scotia and be losing its tropical characteristics, the pressure gradient between it and the big ridge in the Atlantic will still be large and therefore strong winds, perhaps still running about 100 mph will be pushing water on the right hand side of the storm up in the form of a storm surge.  Harbors, bays and inlets in Nova Scotia and other land masses will have a pretty rapid and significant sea rise.  What’s interesting is that with the storm moving so fast, if it does parallel the coast, then they may see a rapid retreat of extreme tidal surges as the wind shifts around from the north on the back side.    If I’m in Halifax or anywhere in Nova Scotia, I’m still heeding the local warnings and advisories.

Hurricane Bill Spaghetti Model 08.21.09

Hurricane Bill Spaghetti Intensity Model 18Z Aug 21

NHC Official Bill Forecast Track Aug 21 5pm

WTNT43 KNHC 212040
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009
500 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2009

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHED BILL THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED AROUND
954 MB…BUT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW
90 KT. THE PLANE REPORTED A SMALL EYE OF 14 N MI DIAMETER.
GIVEN THE CONCENTRIC RING STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON MICROWAVE AND THE
DOUBLE WIND MAXIMA PROVIDED BY THE PLANE…IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
HURRICANE IS GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND THE REASON
FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR BILL TO
REGAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE THE SHEAR
IS LOW AND BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES COOLER WATERS.
THEREAFTER…A STEADY WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND BY 72 HOURS…BILL
SHOULD ALREADY BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTING WITH THE
HIGH LATITUDE WESTERLIES.

BILL IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 17
KNOTS. THE HURRICANE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AROUND
THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE FORCED TO
RECURVE AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CHANGE IN TRACK
GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY PACKED…MAINTAINING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE WILL AFFECT A LARGE PORTION
OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.  PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AT THIS TIME…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH
NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER…A SLIGHT SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE
LEFT WOULD REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING TONIGHT.  THE
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THERE IS ROUGHLY A 25
PERCENT CHANCE OF THESE WINDS REACHING EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/2100Z 29.4N  66.9W    90 KT
12HR VT     22/0600Z 31.7N  68.0W   100 KT
24HR VT     22/1800Z 35.1N  68.4W   100 KT
36HR VT     23/0600Z 39.0N  67.2W    85 KT
48HR VT     23/1800Z 43.0N  64.0W    75 KT
72HR VT     24/1800Z 49.5N  47.0W    50 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT     25/1800Z 54.5N  20.0W    45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     26/1800Z 60.0N   6.0W    35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane Bill Spaghetti Models, Satellite Images Show Very Little Change August 21, 2009

Hurricane Bill 245Z Aug 21 2009

Funktop Hurricane Bill 245Z 08.21.09

For a more recent update for Hurricane Bill, CLICK HERE

Hurricane Bill has returned to its former stature regarding the structure but there is some impediments to it regaining its Category 4 status.  While the official forecast suggests that there will be very little shear over the next few days, you can tell from the satellite imagery continues to show that the outflow is displaced a bit toward the north in reaction to the southwesterly flow ahead of a trof digging into the eastern US.

Bill Water Vapor Imagery

It should pick up forward speed but will run into colder water temperatures by Sunday.  Also the shear should increase and the storm begin to morph in to an extra-tropical system.  So, even though several models indicated on the spaghetti intensity model chart shows the storm at Category 4 level, it may be tough to do or at least remain at that status.  But, you know what, it’s not relevant.  That’s because Bill will remain in the Atlantic while it wanders about.  Well, the strength is not totall irrelevant because as a big bopper it will create big swells and waves along the eastern seaboard and also for the Canadian Maritimes.  The forecast track has shifted a shade but don’t take it as gospel.  The storm may be down to about 100 mph but will significantly impact the Canadian maritime provinces, especially Nova Scotia.   See the 11pm EDT August 20 National Hurricane Discussion below.

Spaghetti Model 00Z Aug 21

Spaghetti Intensity Model 00Z Aug 21

NHC Bill Forecast Track 11pm Aug 20

WTNT43 KNHC 210248
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009
1100 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BILL HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING.
THE LARGE EYE REMAINS VERY WELL-DEFINED…HOWEVER THE CLOUD TOPS
SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE THIS EVENING REPORTED A PEAK BELIEVABLE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 127 KT.  ALTHOUGH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WERE
REPORTED…THE METEOROLOGISTS ON THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT CONSIDER
THOSE HIGHER WINDS TO BE VALID.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED SLIGHTLY.  BASED ON ALL OF THE DATA…THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 110 KT.  ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO.  AFTERWARDS…SOME COOLING OF THE SSTS WILL LIKELY INDUCE A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PREDICTED BY THE
SHIPS MODEL TO REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE HURRICANE NEARS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER…SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL BEGIN TO COOL MORE RAPIDLY AROUND THAT TIME…AND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY VERY SOON THEREAFTER.  THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS GENERALLY BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND
LGEM GUIDANCE 

BILL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/16 KT. THERE IS NOT MUCH
NEW TO SAY ABOUT THE TRACK FORECAST.  BILL IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND RECURVE AHEAD
OF THAT TROUGH THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ONCE AGAIN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING…OR WILL
AFFECT…A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.  PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

DATA FROM A TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION CONDUCTED BY
NOAA AND U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
ASSIMILATED INTO THE INITIALIZATION OF THE 0000 UTC MODEL RUNS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/0300Z 24.9N  64.3W   110 KT
12HR VT     21/1200Z 26.9N  66.1W   115 KT
24HR VT     22/0000Z 29.6N  67.9W   115 KT
36HR VT     22/1200Z 32.7N  68.9W   110 KT
48HR VT     23/0000Z 36.4N  68.6W   100 KT
72HR VT     24/0000Z 44.3N  62.0W    80 KT
96HR VT     25/0000Z 50.5N  43.0W    55 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     26/0000Z 55.0N  20.0W    50 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

Hurricane Bill Spaghetti Models, Satellite, Discussion-Halifax Keeping a Sharp Eye August 20, 2009

Hurricane Bill Spaghetti Model 18Z 08.20.09

Hurricane Bill Visible Satellite 2115Z 08.20.09

 

NHC Hurricane Bill Fcst Track 5pm 08.20.09

Spaghetti Model Intensity Bill 08.20.09 18Z

Hurricane Bill Satellite 2115Z 082009

For more recent Hurricane Bill Satellite Images, Spaghetti Models and Discussion, Click Here.

 Not going to comment too much.  Earlier, the hurricane hunter had a central pressure of 948 mb and the eye, which had at one time opened up, had become closed again with a 35 mile radius.  The satellite imagery appears to show a good looking eye again and so it would seem that the storm simply went through an eyewall replacement cycle.  So, it is conceivable that the Hurricane Bill will regain its Category 4 status once again.  Probably won’t last too long though because it will encounter strong southwesterly upper level winds.  The long wave trof that will determine Bill’s fate is progressing along and seems to be a bit broader than previously forecast.  So, even though the base of the trof appears hung up on Thursday afternoon in the midwest, the eastern flank of the trof will probably be  sufficient to keep Hurricane Bill offshore.  In fact, the official track has been shifted a tad east, which means the woman in Halifax who lives 50 feet from the sea may

Hurricane Bill Water Vapor 2145Z 08.20.09

be feeling a bit better.  But, in general the track is the same and the story is the same.  If it runs south and east of Halifax, then conditions will not be as tough as it would be if it moves over or just west of Halifax, which would put a pretty good storm surge into Margaret Bay and Halifax harbor. In fact, I’m kinda curious to see if the entire land mass between those two inlets don’t end up under water for a time.  Anyway, all is about the same…storm should be really picking up speed by the time it gets into the Canadian Maritimes and will be losing some intensity, though I”m sure the seas will be very rough regardless.  Coastal erosion along the eastern seaboard, particularly vulnerable places like Cape Cod, will be likely as sea swells, waves and tides will rise. 

WTNT43 KNHC 202036
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009
500 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009

BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES HAVE BEEN SENDING VERY
VALUABLE DATA FROM HURRICANE BILL. THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS
DOWN TO 948 MB AND THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS 135 KNOTS. THE
SFMR REPORTED EARLIER A PEAK WIND OF 101 KNOTS.  SINCE THEN…THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED AND THE EYE IS NOW BETTER
DEFINED. IN FACT…GOES SATELLITE SUPER-RAPID SCAN SHOWS THE
STRUCTURE OF THE EYEWALL AND SEVERAL MESOVORTICES INSIDE THE
EYE…TYPICAL OF STRONG HURRICANES. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND
THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 110 KNOTS.  THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUES TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REINTENSIFICATION SINCE BILL IS ABOUT
TO ENCOUNTER THE WARMEST WATERS ALONG ITS PATH SO FAR.
FURTHERMORE…GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BILL EMBEDDED IN A WELL DEFINED
200 MB ANTICYCLONE. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT…THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR RESTRENGTHENING AND BILL IS EXPECTED TO REACH
CATEGORY FOUR STATUS AGAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER…THE HURRICANE SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BY 96 HOURS IT SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL.

THERE IS PRACTICALLY NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. BILL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS EMBEDDED IN VERY
STRONG AND WELL DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. HOWEVER…IN A DAY OR SO A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH SHOULD FORCE THE HURRICANE TO MOVE ON A NORTHERLY AND THEN
NORTHEASTERLY TRACK.  THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS…INCREASING
CONSIDERABLY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THAT
PERIOD.  ON THIS TRACK…THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER
THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SATURDAY MORNING AND BY SUNDAY…THE HURRICANE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS…PUERTO RICO…HISPANIOLA AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS…BERMUDA…MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S.
COAST…AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE NOAA AND THE 53RD AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE
CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION
AROUND HURRICANE BILL TO IMPROVE THE INITIAL ANALYSIS FOR THE
NUMERICAL MODELS. THIS INFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE 0000
UTC MODEL RUN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/2100Z 23.8N  63.2W   110 KT
12HR VT     21/0600Z 25.6N  65.2W   115 KT
24HR VT     21/1800Z 28.3N  67.1W   115 KT
36HR VT     22/0600Z 31.0N  68.5W   115 KT
48HR VT     22/1800Z 34.5N  69.0W   105 KT
72HR VT     23/1800Z 42.5N  64.5W    85 KT
96HR VT     24/1800Z 49.0N  49.5W    60 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     25/1800Z 53.5N  24.0W    50 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

Supreme Court Justice Arrested, Still Looking for Fay and Northwest Passage Opens August 14, 2008

For the latest on Tropical Storm Fay, click here

If you are looking for the tropical stuff, look at the bottom. If you are looking for rain, look somewhere else than Louisville. Except for an errant shower on Thursday(be thankful if you get a shower), we will stay dry through the weekend with temperatures around seasonal averages and humidity levels slowly increasing but it’s still going to be pretty comfortable by Mid-August standards.

Arctic Ice Map

Arctic Sea Ice Still Melting: If you recall on these here pages we talked about the nitwit reporting about the possibility of the Arctic Ice melting and Santa Claus having to put on his swimming trunks.(Symon Sez-Just The Facts!) I ripped the AP reporter for grabbing a few statistics and putting them in the top of his story while burying the qualifiers and other opinions. At the time, I believe there was more sea ice up north than at that time last year. Well, the ice began melting pretty quickly in July, partly due to storms blowing in and breaking up the newest and thinnest ice. Like last year, the Northwest Passage is now open. But it’s pretty shallow so its not something that big ships can take. They take the more northern Parry Channel which remains clogged with ice. Last year, the Parry Channel opened up in mid-August and it’s possible that it may open again this year before the melting ends. Either way, it appears that Santa is safe. Why do I think that the AP will not run a story with a headline trumpeting the fact that the North Pole did not melt away. Here’s the complete story from the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

National Snow and Ice Data Center Aug 11 report

On This Date In History: On this date in 1889, US Supreme Court Justice Stephen J. Field was arrested for murder making him the only member of that body ever arrested for such a crime. The story goes back to a divorce case in which Justice Field ruled that the marriage between Sarah Althea Hill and a wealthy mine owner was invalid and she therefore was not entitled to any portion of his wealth. And neither was her then current husband, David Terry, who like Field was a former California Supreme Court justice. The courtroom erupted into a brawl and Field ordered the couple jailed for contempt. The pair publically announced revenge on the Justice.

About a year later, Field and his bodyguard, US Marshal David Neagle, were riding on a train to San Francisco. Also on the train was Sarah and David Terry. At a stop in Stockton, California the Terrys spotted field in the station dining room. David went for Field while Sarah went back to the train. Dave slapped the Justice and Neagle pulled his revolver and told Dave to stop while identifying himself as an officer. David Terry started fumbling with his jacket. Neagle fatally shot David Terry as his wife came running up with a satchel holding a loaded gun. Neagle and Field were arrested on a murder charge.

California’s Governor ordered Field released and the case against Neagle ended up…in the US Supreme Court that ruled in a landmark decision that since Neagle was acting under federal authority, he could not be subject to California law. I suppose that is why no one ever asked the Texas justice system to charge the ATF agents with anything in the Waco/ Branch Davidian case several years ago. I suppose that Field probably recused himself from the case but it may be the only case in which a sitting Supreme Court Justice was actively involved in a situation that set a legal precedent.

12Z 08/13 NRL Track Invest 92L

So, What’s Up with the Tropics? Well, we’re still waiting on Fay to show itself. The NHC was so unimpressed with disturbance 92L that it cancelled the hurricane hunter for Wednesday. I suppose they are saving the taxpayers money on fuel costs. But, the satellite imagery looks fairly interesting and the intensity spaghetti model still has half of the 16 computers taking it at least to tropical storm level

Spaghetti Intensity 08/13

with a few going to the hurricane level as it moves into the Bahamas. The spaghetti tracks are all very similar but the other half of the intensity models are split with part taking it to tropical storm and back to depression status or keeping it as a depression or less. The other part take it to storm to depression and then back toward tropical storm status. The 18Z ETA was pretty bullish and makes it a hurricane in the Bahamas in 84

Spaghetti Track 08/13

hours. The GFS puts it in the same region as an open area of low pressure. I’ve attached all of the accompanying maps. BTW..the last two runs of the GFS wants to put a tropical cyclone of some intensity in the Gulf in two weeks….but we’re talking about two weeks and the rate of accuracy of models begins to deteriorate after two days, let alone two weeks. But, it will be fun to watch and see if that’s the case.

18Z NAM 08/13

18Z GFS 08/13 84 hours

Remember Apollo 11? Iceland Won’t Forget Bertha, Media Won’t Forget Cristobal, Texas Shouldn’t Forget Dolly. July 20, 2008

It still looks to be hot for the next couple of days, though rain chances will increase. There will probably be a few storms roaming about in the heat of the day today and more numerous tomorrow in the afternoon and more pointedly in the evening and overnight when a front eases through. The front will take the temperatures down a peg or two and also will flip flop around the region for much of the week, bringing us rain chances for several days. Here are the thumbnails for the Sunday and Monday SPC outlook. The northern fringe is in the slight risk for today with the entire area included from Monday morning through Tuesday morning.

On This Date In History: On this date in 1969, Neil Armstrong and Edwin E. Aldrin landed on the moon. Michael Collins was left behind in the command module (Columbia) orbiting the moon. Armstrong and Aldrin had landed in the Lunar Module (LEM) called the “Eagle” with but 1 second of fuel remaining. It was nearly a catastrophe. “Houston” was the first word ever spoken from the moon…a point of pride for Texans. The first seven words were, “Houston, Tranquility Base, the Eagle has Landed.” They had landed in the “sea of tranquility” on the moon, a name given to a region that appeared to have few craters or boulders. I’ll spare you more details and let you look it all up yourself.

But consider this….the earth spins at 1100 mph. The moon is 243,000 miles from the earth and rotates around the rotating earth in 28 day cycles. Space is 3 degrees Kelvin, or 3 degrees above absolute zero which is when all molecular activity stops. There is no atmosphere. It is the most inhospitable place for any human. There were no micro computers and not even calculators. In order to pull it off, calculations had to be extremely precise. The burning of the engines had to be down to the millisecond. All angles had to be exact as well as speed and acceleration. Any slight mishap would spell disaster. Engineers relied on slide rules and theory. Armstrong, Collins and Aldrin as well as all astronauts, even today, are extremely brave frontiersman. It is absolutely unimaginable what happened on this date in 1969. By all rights, it shouldn’t have happened. It is one of the few times that “Yankee Ingenuity” truly lived up to its billing. If you know physics, you know how remarkable this was…if you don’t…take my word for it, it was unbelievable.

Perhaps more unbelievable, my daughter was born on this date on the 25 year anniversary of America’s greatest triumph.

Is Dolly Developing? Maybe. Same story as previous. Here’s the latest on the guy in the Caribbean.

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT…AND THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT… LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY…AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. UPDATE:  Yes…we now have Dolly.  Dolly Discussion.

Bertha Looks to Bisect Iceland: Bertha is losing some steam and some tropical characteristics but not all that quickly. That is probably the most remarkable thing about this storm is that it is over water that is but 65 degrees and yet, still is somewhat tropical in nature. It is not overly remarkable that its going to Iceland. Storms often end up in mainland Europe but there’s a big fat high there that is preventing it from turning east so, Iceland it is! Here’s the discussion.

Cristobal To Bring Big Surf to Big Tony: Look for Cristobal to get some big headlines and a place in the national news. Not for it’s ferocity but for the fact that it will be along the east coast. It’s good to scare people in the media these days. Don’t be surprised to hear “what if this was a major storm” stories. Well, it’s not…probably won’t make hurricane. It will kick up the seas from Maryland to Maine and that’s about it. Maybe they’ll be surfing on the Jersey Shore with Pauly Walnuts and Tony Soprano hanging ten.  Here’s the discussion on Cristobal.

Bertha to Iceland, Kalmaegi in China, Cristobal off US? UFOs Over White House? Hello Dolly? July 19, 2008

Tropical Update: Our weather is so lame I thought that I’d talk about the tropics which are much more interesting. First pic is the track for Bertha which became a hurricane again. I kept saying it was going to England. My bad…it’s going to Iceland! That’s even better. Kalmaegi is going to cause havoc on the China coast. Our Japanese Allies will be safe. Then there is the guy off the SE coast. I think I suggested that it would develop and it is now the 3rd Tropical Depression of the season. The forecast has it moving along the coast and becoming a tropical storm. Funny thing was, I saw a national cable weather outlet say that the recon couldn’t find any low level circulation. Then they went and reported surface winds were “definitely” counter clockwise. Hmmm. Anyway, then there is the guy I’m much more interested in that is now moving into the central Caribbean. The models still don’t pick it up but it’s there and it’s worth watching. If it does develop and move toward the gulf…watch oil prices jump. If it becomes named, it would be Dolly, presuming that Cristobal forms off the SE coast.

Our weather continues to be:

Should be good for a morning building implosion. The air quality alerts have largely not verified, by the way. Otherwise, the forecast is on track. Hot, getting more humid. Isolated stuff Sunday. Better chances next week.

On This Date In History: On this date in 1952, we had spies at the White House. Or more to the point, over the White House. At nearby Andrews Air Force Base, radar operators noted seven blips that were said to “loaf along” at between 100 and 130 mph. Then they accelerated to an unheard of 7200 mph. Washington National Airport radar operators made the same observations. Airline pilots reported lights in the sky but when USAF jets were scrambled to intercept, they had disappeared. The official explanation? The old temperature inversion trick! Uhh….temperature inversions don’t appear as blips and don’t race around. Experienced air traffic controllers disputed the official version. On July 26 a similar incident occurred and an interceptor jet couldn’t even get close to the objects. Also, amber lights were seen, including over Florida’s Guided Missile Long-Range Proving Ground. The Air Force conducted its “largest and longest” press conference since WWII to tell everyone it was just weather phenomena. No, President Clinton did not conduct that press conference.

By the way, the photo associated with This Date In History is supposedly from a recent photo and this website claims there have been “blip” incidents recently during which President Bush and Vice-President Cheney have been hustled to the underground bunker.

Typhoon Kalmaegi Downgraded July 18, 2008

IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN THE LIFE OF FORMER TYPHOON KALMAEGI, HERE’S SOME STUFF FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. FOR OTHER STUFF FOR THE DAY SEE PREVIOUS POST

WTPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 016
   DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 08W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z --- NEAR 25.2N 121.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 121.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 26.8N 120.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 28.8N 120.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 31.0N 121.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 33.1N 123.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 36.9N 128.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 40.6N 133.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 25.6N 121.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 NM
NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
180000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z
AND 190300Z.//
NNNN

Developing System In the Tropical Antilles? July 16, 2008

The Boys From Biloxi will be out and about snooping about this afternoon in an area of disturbed weather in the Antilles.  Yesterday, the NHC had all but pooh-poohed the area and now suddenly they are sending out a hurricane hunter.  Probably not a good idea to totally write off activity in this region this time of year.   Anyway, from the brief look at he satellite pic its looking pretty good to me and the water temperatures are in the lower 80s and the real estate into the Gulf of Mexico has water temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s.  Plenty of fuel. 

Right now, the models don’t generally have the feature. The GFS takes a little something into the Gulf of Mexico in about 6 days but doesn’ do much.  This is not unusual.  None of them have intiated the activity so if the computer can’t see it, then it doesn’t know that it’s there so it can’t possibly have it in a forecast.  As the data comes in that shows the models there is indeed a feature there, then we will get a better idea of what will happen.

The system is pretty far south which makes it a little more difficult to get a circulation going but its not too far south that its not likely.  The general pattern is such that would suggest that the storm moves toward Central America or possibly across the southern part of the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche.  But, that would assume a static pattern which would be foolish.  A ridge is nosing over pretty good from the east but any slight breakdown of the western periphery and it will open the door to the northern or northwestern caribbean or perhaps the Gulf of Mexico.  But let’s see if this guy does form into something before anyone gets too worked up.