Once Mighty Hurricane Paloma Headed To Ash Heep of History November 10, 2008

Santa Cruz del Sur Took a Direct Hit

Paloma IR Satellite Image 1110 0215Z

For all intents and purposes, Paloma is dead.  This is really remarkable when you

Paloma NHC Forecast Track 1109 10PM EST

consider that 36 hours ago it was pushing 150 mph winds.  What has happened is what I expected would happen and that is the mountains of Cuba took a toll on the low level circulation and,more importantly, the upper flow just blew the top right off of it.  It has gotten separated from its upper support.  You can see on the satellite photo how the action is displaced way to the east of the center of low level circulation.  The storm came ashore as a strong, but weakening hurricane…probably around 135 mph.  Here is a story from CBS with photos and video. Cuba has had a rough go of it this hurricane season as well as other island nations.  The communist island is still trying to recover from Ike and Gustav that collectively destroyed about a third of Cuba’s crops and now this comes on top of the nearly $10 billion in damage from previous storms.  Below is the last discussion from the National Hurricane Center regarding Paloma.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
1000 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

Paloma Spaghetti Model 1110 00Z

PALOMA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN
12 HOURS DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER CUBA AND
VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR DISPLACING DEEP CONVECTION
…ALONG WITH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS…WELL TO THE
EAST NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
CONVECTION…DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAN NOT BE
GENERATED BY TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE…THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 25 KT FOR DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/03 KT. THE REMNANTS OF PALOMA ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO…
AND THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST OR EVEN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHALLOW BAM AND THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS.

Paloma Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1110 00Z

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR…MEANDERING OVER LAND
FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS…AND DRY STABLE AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
CIRCULATION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS LED TO THE
RAPID DEMISE OF PALOMA. SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS
FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED…THERE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER…UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 30 KT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED AROUND THE
CENTER.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION
OCCURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/0300Z 22.0N  78.0W    25 KT…DISSIPATING INLAND
12HR VT     10/1200Z 22.2N  78.1W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
24HR VT     11/0000Z 22.7N  78.2W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     11/1200Z 23.0N  78.4W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     12/0000Z 23.0N  78.8W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     13/0000Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Hurricane Paloma Now Tropical Storm Paloma Soon to Be Dead November 9, 2008

Paloma 1109 IR Satellite Image 1715Z

 for a more recent update on what was once hurricane paloma, including a news story, video and photos from Cuba, CLICK HERE

TS Paloma NHC Forecast Track 1109 10AM EST

Paloma: As expected, Hurricane Paloma is getting the hell kicked out of it. You can say that because most people say that strong hurricanes are a “living hell” and this is no longer the case with Paloma. As I have explained several time, the very thing that enhanced Paloma is now killing it. Strong westerly winds aloft that helped vent the storm are now situated such that it is blasting apart the upper support…its hat or head, if you will. Every tropical cyclone has an upper level anti-cyclone. Without the anti-cyclone, the surface low is just that, a surface low. So, the upper level hat is getting sheared to bits and the low level circulation is getting ripped up as it remains over Cuba. In short, Paloma will be dead soon. Very interesting how in 96 hours it will have gone from about 50 mph to nearly 150 mph and back to nothing.

TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008

1000 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

TS Paloma Spaghetti Model 1109 12Z

PALOMA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE CENTERED OVER LAND AND BEING IMPACTED BY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS INLAND AND HAS LOST MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION…IT IS DIFFICULT TO USE THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE TO ESTIMATE THE CURRENT INTENSITY. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND VECTORS JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA. CAMAGUEY…WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER…IS NOT REPORTING VERY STRONG WINDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE SOMEWHERE OVER THE WATER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OUR BEST GUESS AT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IS 50 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL…USING THE GFS WIND FORECAST…INDICATES RELENTLESSLY STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KT ON THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS PALOMA WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS.

PALOMA ADVANCED MORE SLOWLY OVER CUBA THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED AND THIS HAS NECESSITATED A

TS Paloma Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1109 12Z

BIT OF A SOUTHWARD RELOCATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT OR 020/2. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS BEING REDUCED TO A SHALLOW LAYER SYSTEM…IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY THAT IT WILL RESPOND TO STEERING BY THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER EVEN THE SHALLOW BAM SHOWS A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL LOOPING IT BACK TO THE WEST IN AROUND 3 DAYS…BY WHICH TIME THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE SYSTEM. SINCE WE BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST….THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO MOTION BETWEEN DAYS TWO AND THREE AND IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

IF THE CURRENT LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS…PALOMA COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN PREDICTED HERE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 21.2N 77.9W 50 KT…INLAND

12HR VT 10/0000Z 21.7N 77.5W 35 KT…INLAND

24HR VT 10/1200Z 22.2N 77.1W 30 KT

36HR VT 11/0000Z 22.7N 76.8W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW

48HR VT 11/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW

72HR VT 12/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 13/1200Z…DISSIPATED

$$ FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Paloma: Eighth Hurricane of Atlantic Season November 7, 2008

Hurricane Paloma IR Satellite 1107 0515Z

for a more recent update on Hurricane Paloma, CLICK HERE

Hurricane Paloma: Really there is nothing substantive different from the previous report except that

Hurricane Paloma NHC Forecast Track 1107 1AM EST

Hurricane Paloma Spaghetti Model 1107 00Z

Paloma is now a hurricane. This is not remarkable because its following the script. The satellite imagery had been improving steadily and now is rather impressive as the storm gaing some 40 mph wind increase in about 24 hours. The track is about the same. I’m not sure that I understand the models that want to take the storm west for a time or even moving into the western Bahamas. Really doesn’t make much sense given that we have a trof and westerly shear. I suppose maybe they don’t dig the trof that far south, the storm moves slowly and the ridge

Hurricane Paloma Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1107 00Z

behind the trof picks it up somehow. I give that whole idea a hrmph. The westerly winds I would think will drive it east. I don’t think the boys at the NHC are impressed with that scenario either as they have generally dismissed it except to mention it in the discussion. In my view, I would expect that this guy will get ripped to shreds as it crosses Cuba. Not just by the land but also more significantly by a strong westerly shear that has been progged for some time and has been consistent.

HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008

1000 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY…PLUS REPORTS FROM NEARBY NOAA BUOY 42057…INDICATE THAT PALOMA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE. AT 2250Z…THE NOAA BUOY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 62 KT WITH A PEAK GUST TO 74 KT…AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 993 MB. ALLOWING FOR A 1 MB PER 10 KT PRESSURE REDUCTION YIELDS AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 987 MB…WHICH IS A TYPICAL CENTRAL PRESSURE FOR A LOW-END CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LOCATED IN THE DEEP TROPICS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB…PLUS AN EYE FEATURE NOTED IN EARLIER INFRARED IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA FURTHER SUPPORT MAKING PALOMA A HURRICANE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH A WELL-ESTABLISHED POLEWARD CHANNEL NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07. THE EARLIER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OF 10 KT WAS PROBABLY MORE DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER-CORE THAN ACTUAL STORM PROPAGATION. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT…HOWEVER…THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY WITH THE UKMET…GFDN…NOGAPS…AND ECMWF MODELS TAKING A VERY SHEARED AND VERY WEAK SYSTEM WESTWARD…WHEREAS THE GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF MODELS MOVE A STRONGER AND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AFTER THAT. GIVEN THE CURRENT IMPRESSIVE ORGANIZATION AND EXPECTED CONTINUED STRENGTHENING…THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THIS ADVISORY…AS WITH PREVIOUS ADVISORIES…LEANS TOWARD THE GFS-GFDL-HWRF SOLUTION IN TAKING A STRONGER AND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE INTACT ACROSS CUBA THROUGH 60-72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF MODELS. PALOMA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED BY 35 KT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER…IT IS RARE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR FOR MORE THAN 48 HOURS…SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT PREMISE AND CALLS FOR THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND TO END IN 24 HOURS. THIS RAPID STRENGTHENING SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN…AN EYE FEATURE…A RELATIVELY SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS…AND A SLOW FORWARD MOTION OVER 29C SSTS. THE GFDL MODEL ALSO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS PALOMA TO 102 KT IN 36 HOURS…WHICH SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. HOWEVER…BY 48 HOURS…THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SHARPLY INCREASE FROM 5 KT TO 25 KT…SO STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING DAYS 2-5. AS PALOMA PASSES OVER CUBA IN ABOUT 60 HOURS… LAND INTERACTION WILL ALSO LEAD TO A WEAKENING CYCLONE…AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PALOMA WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND AFTER IT EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 17.2N 81.8W 65 KT

12HR VT 07/1200Z 18.1N 81.8W 80 KT

24HR VT 08/0000Z 19.1N 81.5W 95 KT

36HR VT 08/1200Z 20.0N 80.8W 100 KT

48HR VT 09/0000Z 20.7N 79.8W 90 KT

72HR VT 10/0000Z 22.5N 77.5W 65 KT

96HR VT 11/0000Z 24.5N 74.5W 45 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 12/0000Z 27.5N 71.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$ FORECASTER STEWART

Woman Elected to Congress!!Tropical Storm Paloma Wants to Become Hurricane Paloma November 7, 2008

1106 12Z NAM SFC 60 hour

for a more recent update on hurricane paloma CLICK HERE

Our forecast is on track.  Look for cooler conditions on Friday and chilly conditions on Saturday as clouds wrap around and colder air filters in.  The above map is the 12Z NAM depiction of Saturday evening.  It has us around 50 but I still say we may be hard pressed to get out of the 40′s. Either way, its a lousy day and Sunday the sun should make an appearance but temperatures will still be a bit  below average.

Tropical Storm Paloma Vis Sat 1106 2145Z

Tropical Storm Paloma: Paloma is behaving itself and doing as expected.That means that it morphed

Tropical Storm Paloma NHC Track 1106 4PM EST

from Tropical Depression 17 into Tropical Storm Paloma and will become Hurricane Paloma some time on Friday.  It’s satellite presentation is looking pretty good.  The National Hurricane Center has decided to go along with what some of yesterday’s outlying models were suggesting later making the storm reasonably formidable. But, they aren’t going out on a limb. If you look at today’s 18Z spaghetti model intensity graph, you note that several models have joined the party so the official forecast is more of consensus than long shot. It’s over a good environment of warm water and light winds aloft so fairly rapid intensification is forecast to near 90 kts (about 105 mph) in the next day or so and then it runs into the south-central coast of Cuba.  There are some pretty decent mountains there to mess up the circulation.  Further, it will encounter some strong westerly winds aloft that will help zip it quickly through the Bahamas and also serve to rip it apart.  It is forecast to lose its tropical characteristics as it passes quickly Northeast through the Bahamas.  It seems impossible for it to hit the US given that a big ole trof is moving across and will stand as a sentry along the east coast.  If anything, I would think it may have a more easterly track but the official forecast goes along with the idea that it moves fast enough to avoid a more easterl coast that would bring problems to the hurricane season battered Haiti.  The 4 PM EST National Hurricane Center Forecast Discussion for Tropical Storm Paloma can be found at the bottom along with spaghetti models.

On This Date In History: The 19th Amendment to the Constitution that guaranteed women the right to vote was not ratified until August of 1920.  However, on this date in 1916, Jeanette Rankin(bio) became the first woman elected to Congress.  How does that work?

Well, western states were in a somewhat leadership position regarding suffragettes.  Wyoming gave women the vote in 1869 when it was still a territory. Utah, Idaho and Colorado voted for the suffragettes by the turn of the century.  One must remember, there is no such thing as a Federal Election. All elections are state or local.  So, states can pass their own voting laws.  Rankin was from Montana and after working in New York as a social worker and getting involved in the women’s suffrage movement.  She moved home to Montana in 1914 because she believed that the western states offered the best opportunity to gain women’s suffrage due to their pioneering spirit that she thought gave more respect to women and their ability.  She was right because shortly after she moved there, women in Montana got the right to vote.  She was elected to Congress in 1916 with strong support from men and women.  When she went to Washington, the nation looked to see if she could handle the office.

Handling the office was not an issue.  What became an issue was her strongly held beliefs.  She was elected as a Progressive Republican and she held strong pacifist views.  When the vote to enter World War I came up, she voted against it.  Even though 55 other Congressmen voted against it, she was ridiculed by many as not having the ability to take on the responsibility of national office.  Others though said she showed strong, courageous leadership in her vote.  She remained in office through World War II.  She held on to her convictions and voted against that war too.  She is the only member of Congress to have voted against the United States entry in both world wars.  This time, she voted alone. 

Seems Jeanette was one of those who thought that President Roosevelt had deliberately provoked the attack on Pearl Harbor.  That didn’t sit well with anyone, including her constituents in Montana. So, instead of being defeated, she declined to run in 1943. But, she wasn’t done.  In 1968, the 88 year old Rankin led a march on Washington to protest the Vietnam War.  Rankin died in 1973 but you’ve to admire her.  While I would not necessarily agree with her positions, one has to acknowledge that, unlike most politicians, she had a core belief and never knuckled under and remained active in promoting that belief until her last breath.  Rather remarkable on many levels if you think about it.

TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
400 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008

Tropical Storm Paloma Spaghetti Model 1106 18Z

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT PALOMA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH IMPRESSIVE BANDS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH THE STORM AND HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 850 MB
WINDS OF 61 KT…SFMR-DERIVED SURFACE WINDS OF 57 KT…AND A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO
55 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DATA.  THE SYSTEM HAS A COUPLE
OF DAYS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR AND OVER WARM WATERS BEFORE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE BY MOST GLOBAL MODELS.  RAPID
STRENGTHENING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS…ESPECIALLY IF PALOMA DEVELOPS AN EYE.  OVER THE WEEKEND…A
COMBINATION OF HIGH SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTIONS COULD CAUSE A RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE STORM.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL MODEL STILL
FORECASTS THE STORM TO BE AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA…WHICH REMAINS A VIABLE POSSIBILITY.

Tropical Storm Paloma Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1106 18Z

THE AIRCRAFT DATA REQUIRED A SLIGHT EASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE
CENTER…AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 005/7.  DISTANT
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF PALOMA SHOULD STEER THE STORM
NORTHWARD…THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS A LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
RIGHT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS DUE TO THE RELOCATION AND LIES ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THERE CONTINUE TO BE A
LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE STORM MOVES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
ONE CLUSTER OF MODELS…COMPRISED OF THE GFDL/HWRF/GFDL/BAMD…
TAKES THE STORM QUICKLY ACROSS CUBA AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM INTACT FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  ANOTHER RELIABLE SET OF MODELS…INCLUDING
THE NOGAPS/UKMET/GFDN/ECMWF…ARE MUCH SLOWER AND EITHER LOOP THE
SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN OR TEAR IT APART BEFORE REACHING CUBA.
SINCE THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING AT A FASTER PACE THAN ANTICIPATED
AND IS STRONGER…THE NHC FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE SPEEDY
SOLUTION. 

NOAA DATA BUOY 42057 SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE RADIUM OF MAXIMUM WINDS
IN A FEW HOURS.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/2100Z 16.3N  81.8W    55 KT
12HR VT     07/0600Z 17.2N  81.9W    65 KT
24HR VT     07/1800Z 18.3N  82.0W    80 KT
36HR VT     08/0600Z 19.3N  81.5W    90 KT
48HR VT     08/1800Z 20.0N  80.6W    90 KT
72HR VT     09/1800Z 21.5N  78.5W    70 KT…INLAND
96HR VT     10/1800Z 23.5N  75.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     11/1800Z 26.5N  72.0W    35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

Tropical Depression 17, Galloping Gertie and a Not Too Exciting Thursday Night November 6, 2008

SPC Severe Outlook 1106 12Z to 1107 12Z

for a more recent update on hurricane paloma, CLICK HERE

If you look at the SPC outlook above, you notice that the slight risk area is really small down to the south. While there were some big storms on Wednesday in the plains, the dynamics to support more in the way of potential strong storms kinda go by the wayside on Thursday. Couple that with the fact that the front comes through here on Thursday night, and you lose any potential for fireworks. One more warm day today then a chance for rain and perhaps a rumble of thunder on Thursday night. Cooler air on Friday with perhaps some sunshine. As I mentioned several days ago, I had thought this scenario would unfold. We’ll be warmer than I was anticipating for Friday but the real push of cold air comes in on Saturday and with the clouds, we may be hard pressed to come out of the 40′s. Sunday, the sun breaks through but we still only get to the low 50′s. Really not a great weekend shaping up.

Tropical Depression 17 IR Satellite 1106 0515Z

Tropical Depression 17: As expected, the little area developing off the Nicaraguan

Tropical Depression 17 Forecast Track 1105 10 PM EST

coast has developed quite nicely. The satellite image seems to show some decent outflow and the upper winds in the region are rather weak so it has a good chance of becoming Tropical Storm Paloma. In fact, the majority of the models take it hurricane status with one even wanting to make it a cat 3 with over 100 kt winds. That seems unlikely though. Its drifing northwest and may even get over land for a time but should start to move north and then north northeast as it moves about a ridge to the east. As the front that is moving through our area on Thursday comes along, it should dig deep enough into the Gulf to pick this guy up and, as it does so, it moves into some pretty strong westerly winds. That would take the storm across the northern Caribean toward Cuba and across Cuba into the Bahamas. Odds are, if it doesn’t do that, then it would be farther east and maybe even affect Haiti which doesn’t need any more storms. But, its possible. Those upper winds I suspect will mess it up and that is why I wouldn’t think that a major hurricane is in the cards, nor one that would affect the US. The discussion and spaghetti models are below.

Tacoma Narrows Bridge: A Big Mistake

On This Date In History: On this date in 1940 one of the greatest engineering boondoggles was uncovered in Washington. The Tacoma Narrows Bridge opened in July 1940 to great fanfare. With a span of 2800 feet, it was the third longest bridge in the world. The builder decided to save money by making the bridge only 39 feet wide to support just two lanes of traffic. It was designed to withstand winds of 120 mph. People flocked to the bridge after it’s opening, not just because it was faster than the ferry, but also because moderate winds that are common in the area would make the bridge sway and even undulate up and down. Drivers reported losing sight of the autos in front of them when the bridge waved. The bridge gained the moniker “Galloping Gertie.”

All the fun and games came to a crashing end on this date in 1940 (November 7) when steady winds of just 42 mph made the bridge sway…and then leap. It continued throughout the day until the entire structure failed. The bridge had been closed but the last man let across lost control of his car and, in fear of being tossed 190 feet into the Tacoma Narrows below, he fled on foot. He tried to retrieve the family cocker spaniel from the back seat but the pup would have none of it. As he reached the end of the bridge, the bridge collapsed spectacularly with the dog as the only casualty.

The result of the collapse was analysed and is a common subject in college physics classes. Basically, the wind was in tune with the natural harmonics of the bridge. The more the wind blew, the greater it increased the amplitude of the harmonics creating a wave. Its a similar phenomena as when a singer breaks a glass. To avoid a similar fate, bridges today, including the one that replaced “Galloping Gertie” have damping and aerodynamic features built in and wind tunnels are used to test the ability of the structure to resist wind and prevent compromise of the integrity of the structure.

Here is the 1940 Newsreel Footage of the Collapse of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge

Here is a different, color film on video of the collapse

Whatever man builds, can come down. Gravity and other forces are constantly at play. There are some things in life in which compromise can be a good thing. But engineers cannot afford to not get it right the first time. It kinda reminds me of what US Grant often said, “man proposes; God disposes.” These days we often teach our kids that close is good enough. If that is your methodology, mommas don’t let your babies be engineers.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 PM EST WED NOV 05 2008

Tropical Depression 17 Spaghetti Model 1106 00Z

PAST FEW HOURS…AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB AT 0000 UTC
SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 30 AND 35 KT…RESPECTIVELY. ANALYSIS OF
AMBIGUITIES FROM A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2334 UTC SUGGESTS THAT THE
HIGHEST WINDS OUTSIDE OF RAIN NEAR THE CENTER WERE AROUND 25
KT…REASONABLY SUGGESTING THAT WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT IN THE
CONVECTION. ALSO…NOAA BUOY 42057 WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER
REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 29 KT AT 2200 AND 2300 UTC…AND A GUST OF
33 KT. BASED ON ALL OF THIS EVIDENCE…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 30 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT AND MAY FIND THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. A SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS…WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO ITS EAST. LATER IN THE
PERIOD…AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO…AND WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH ABOUT 36
HOURS…BUT IS STILL SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER
36 HOURS…THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS…TVCN.

Tropical Depression 17 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1106 00Z

VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE
GFDL AND HWRF BOTH MAKE THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE WITHIN 36 TO 48
HOURS…AND FORECAST AN INTENSITY NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 72
HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
INTENSITY AT 48 HOURS BUT DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH STRENGTHENING
BEYOND THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD…AND
IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
HOWEVER…IF THE CYCLONE IS ABLE TO ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE…MORE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR THAN IS FORECAST HERE. BEYOND 72
HOURS…THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES RAPIDLY AS THE CYCLONE
INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES…AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST AT THOSE
TIME PERIODS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 14.3N 82.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 14.8N 82.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 15.6N 82.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 16.4N 83.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 17.3N 83.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 19.0N 82.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 20.5N 79.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 23.5N 74.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART

Invest 93 or Tropical Storm Paloma? Lincoln’s Catch of the Day? Quote of the Voting Day? November 5, 2008

for a more recent update on Tropical Depression 17 that will probably become Tropical Storm Paloma or possibly Hurricane Paloma, CLICK HERE

Great Quote From a Great American: The old sage, transplanted Kentuckian to Texas Mike Weaver offered me this observation from voting day in Tejas. It’s something I wanted to share with you.

“I walked right in, nobody suicide bombed me, nobody tried to snipe at me, or coerced me, or had a thing to say, nice and peaceful. I could have early voted, or mailed it in, but I wanted to go to the polling station today, stand in line, (only 3 deep at 11:20) and do this on ELECTION day.

My forefathers fought and died for this right, so me taking a few minutes of time and few gallons of gas is a incredibly small price to pay for the privilege. I wish they were here to see it all and for me to say thanks, but they are not. How many hundreds of thousands died for the privilege of our sovereignty!

So today I cast my vote not for me but for those Vets, and for the others who can’t vote… like my two boys. God HAS blessed America.”

NAM SFC 1108 00Z

Our Weather and Another Tropical System? After the past few days, some of you may have thought that fall and winter were over with. Nope. Front is still on schedule with rain late Thursday night into Friday morning. Cooler air is lagging behind but expect below average temperatures for the weekend. If you notice the map above, it is the surface map from the NAM at 00Z Saturday 110808. That is Friday evening. Two things to notice. You see green to our east in a line. That is the front that will have passed through. You see green to our northwest. That is rain to our northwest and is indicative of wrap around clouds. As mentioned previously, we’ll probably see some clearing late Friday with clouds moving back in for Saturday. The sun will break out to some degree again on Sunday but it will still be rather cool. Okay…all of that is something that probably doesn’t surprise you.

Invest 93L IR Satellite 1104 2145Z

But take a look at the lower right corner of the map. See that blob of green there?

Invest 93L Spaghetti Model 1104 18Z

By that time we may be looking at least at Tropical Depression 17 and possibly the long awaited Tropical Storm Paloma. I kept waiting on Paloma a few weeks ago and was stood up. Right now, it’s just called Invest 93 like a woman in a bar through the eyes of a man drinking heavily, its getting better looking with time. Seriously, it is looking a bit better organized. It is drifting NNW. Now, the reason why I posted the 84 hour NAM surface is to illustrate the frontal boundary that will be to our east. The trof associated with that feature will probably be far enough south to perhaps pick up the system as coriolis parameters and

Invest 93L Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1104 18Z

weak steering currents move it toward the grips of the trof. A number of the computers on the spaghetti model does exactly that. Given the slow movement of the system in relation to the oncoming front, this scenario would probably take the storm east of Florida. But, it’s not totally out of the question that it might move across a portion of the peninsula. However, if the trof does not pick it up, then it probably just stays put in the NW Caribbean. 11 models make it a tropical storm, one makes it a hurricane and 3 keep it below the Tropical Storm threshold. It’s worth watch. Hurricane season does not end until November 30.

On This Date In History: On this date in 1842, Abraham Lincoln married Mary Todd. She was considered

28 Year Old Mary Todd

quite a catch in her day. I don’t think they had a “catch and release” program back then.

She actually is a rather interesting figure and there have been several biographies about her and numerous…hundreds…..written about Lincoln which delve into their relationship, how it affected his presidency. Its probably a good idea to read several to get some sort

Mary Todd at 43...Didn't Age A Bit!

of perspective because each author will come at it from different perspectives and sometimes with a preconceived agenda or notion of what they want to say. Jean Baker has one of the more recent biographies of Mary Todd and it paints a very sympathetic portrait by often using late 20th century sensibilities and transporting them back to the 19th century. If you look closely, you find that Professor Baker received funding from the Elizabeth Connolly Todd Foundation. Like I said, biographers look at subjects from different perspectives and different photos…the one adorning the Baker portrait of Todd is not the same presented above.

On this date in 1965, speedster Craig Breedlove’s wife, Lee Ann, tried to steal his thunder when she became the first woman to drive more than 300 mph on the Bonneville Salt Flats. I’m not sure if Craig got mad, but he certainly made sure he shared the spotlight. Just few hours later, Craig Breedlove got in his car and shattered his land speed record by reaching over 555 mph in his Spirit of America jet powered car. I don’t have a photo of Lee Ann.

Too Bad Hurricane Omar Couldn’t Attend a Laughing Gas Party October 16, 2008

Rainfall Total Forecast Thu 1016 thru Fri 1017

FOR A MORE RECENT UPDATE ON HURRICANE OMAR, CLICK HERE

link to hurricane omar radar loop. just CLICK HERE, navigate to puerto rico and hit “animate”

The way our weather has shaken out is that we have a boundary come through on Thursday. The bulk of the rain will come after midnight on Wednesday and carry into midday Thursday. Rainfall totals will generally be less than a half inch. Temperatures will be decidedly cooler. Late Friday we have a little short wave wander through in the flow that will increase clouds. We are backing off a bit from the prospects of rain on Friday and if we get anything on Friday night it will be just scattered sprinkles…there appears to be too much dry air working in to support anything overly significant. But pointedly though will be the sharply cooler conditions. We’ll only make it to around the 60′s degree mark Saturday despite plenty of afternoon sunshine. After a Saturday morning start in the low 40′s, Sunday morning look for frost in many areas with Louisville being one of the warmer spots with a start around 39. Outlying areas may be in the low to mid 30′s. Sunday the sun helps us move up to around 70 as we get on the west side of a big fat area of high pressure.

Atlantic Satellite 1016 0115Z

Hurricane Omar Forecast Track 1015 11pm

Hurricane Omar: Hurricane Omar is a nice looking storm and continues to push toward the Virgin Islands and will move through overnight and through Thursday morning. The islands on the

Hurricane Omar Satellite 1016 0145Z

northeastern fringe of the Caribbean will get a pretty good whack from this storm that will most likely have winds well in excess of 100 mph. Fortunately, it will move along at a decent clip so that rain totals will not be too extreme, but water-logged Puerto Rico still may be adversely affected by copious amounts of rain. Omar has continued to deepen as the pressure has dropped to 967 mb and winds have

Hurricane Omar Watches and Warnings 1015 11pm

increased to 115 mph with higher gusts. The strengthening perhaps is the most significant aspect of Omar as this guy moves through the islands on the upswing, not in a deteriorating cycle. Once it passes, it will go into the north-central Atlantic where it will eventually encounter colder water and perhaps a frontal zone. This guy may end up affecting Europe though in some form…not tropical but perhaps formidable.

Tropical Depression 16 is muddling its way through Central America. While it may not become Tropical Storm Paloma, it will bring difficult rains to Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and Nicaragua. Academically the most interesting thing about this guy will be if it remains intact enough as it moves into the Pacific to regenerate. If it did, it would receive a new name.

The National Hurricane Center Hurricane Omar Forecast Discussion can be found at the bottom of the post along with the associated spaghetti models. At the top of the page you will also find a link to a Hurricane Omar Radar Loop. You simply navigate away from the Ohio Valley default down to the Caribbean. You will get images from the Puerto Rico radar. To loop the image, simply hit the “animate” button.

Laughing Gas Party 1839

On This Date in History: In the first half of the 19th Century, performers went around the country

Party Time For the Lady?

performing acts that showed the side effects of nitrous oxide, also known as “laughing gas.” A Georgia physician, Dr. Crawford Long attended a party in which the foolishness took place and was asked by friends if he could make up a batch for their own private fun. Long suggested the use of ether instead as he found it quite suitable for the desired effects. At that point, all across the Peach State laughter at parties was heard of people chuckling at each others stumbling and bumbling while high on ether. Long’s interest was piqued. He noted how people didn’t feel any pain.

Dr. William Morton Died Young

One of the fellow party makers was James Venable who had a tumor. Now, at the time, the pain associated with surgery was totally based on how fast the surgeon could do his work. So, Long convinced Venable to try out the gas before he had his tumor removed. He agreed and on March 30, 1842 the tumor was removed successfully without pain. But, Long did not publish his findings right away as he was not fully convinced. Long’s conservative approach was probably a good idea.

Dentist Horace Wells in Hartford, CT attended a laughing gas show and recognized the potential of nitrous oxide. So, he jumped the gun and took his case to the Massachusetts General Hospital where the demonstration promptly went asunder and Wells was ridiculed as a fraud. That led to Dr. William Morton.

Dr. Morton had worked with Dr. Wells and had learned of the promise of ether’s numbing properties from chemist Dr. Charles Jackson. He tried it out on some patients to much success and he too went to Massachusetts General Hospital. He said he had discovered a new wonder drug. What he really had was the very same ether that Wells had, but he camouflaged it with aromic oils so it would alter the oder. On October 16, 1846 the chief of surgery at Massachusetts General removed a neck tumor and also performed a leg amputation. The surgeries were pain free and the age of anesthetics was here. Morton patented the formula hoping to get rich.

Emory University Hospital Named For Dr. Crawford Long

But, Jackson and his supporters claimed they were the true discoverers. Morton in 1868 went to New York to defend his position against supporters of Jackson. He had a seizure and died. Upon seeing Morton’s tombstone that gave Morton credit for anesthetic, Jackson went insane and spent the rest of his life in an asylum. Then we have the fate of Dr. Wells, who jumped the gun with his demonstration. He became addicted to chloroform and his mind eroded. He ended up in jail and somehow got ahold of chloroform, soaked a clothe in it and covered his face after opening up his arteries. He quietly and painlessly bled to death.

As for perhaps the true pioneer of the use of anesthetics, Dr. Crawford Long? The one who was not bold enough to publish his findings? He continued as a general practitioner until 1878 when he died making a house call. Perhaps his caution and conservative approach was reflective of his life as those who went for the fame and fortune all died in bizarre and untimely manners. I wonder if those 3 would think that it was worth it?

HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 11

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL152008 1100 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model 1016 00Z

JUST-RECEIVED DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING OMAR SHOWED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 117 KT…AND AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND FROM THE SFMR OF 108 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 967 MB. ON THIS BASIS…OMAR IS UPGRADED TO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE…AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED INTENSIFICATION…SHOWING INCREASED ORGANIZATION IN BOTH THE EYE AND EYEWALL. OMAR HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/17. IN THE SHORT TERM…THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS FORECASTING A 15-20 DEGREE LEFT TURN THAT SO FAR HAS NOT OCCURRED. OTHER THAN THAT…THE TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FORWARD. OMAR IS EMBEDDED IN MID/UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1016 00Z

MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…THEY FORECAST A SECOND TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 96 HOURS. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP OMAR ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY COURSE WITH SOME VARIATION IN SPEED DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS…FOLLOWED BY A MORE EASTWARD MOTION WITH ACCELERATION AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE CORE OF THE WESTERLIES. THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS…WITH SOME SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION AFTER THAT TIME. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS AND A LITTLE SLOWER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES OMAR OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN WHICH TO INTENSIFY…AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR OMAR TO PEAK AT 105 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER… OMAR SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN…WITH THE STORM UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION STARTING AT ABOUT 96 HOURS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT STRONGER WINDS…POSSIBLY ONE CATEGORY HIGHER…CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN…ESPECIALLY ABOVE 500 FT ELEVATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 17.4N 64.5W 100 KT

12HR VT 16/1200Z 19.4N 63.1W 105 KT

24HR VT 17/0000Z 22.2N 61.2W 100 KT

36HR VT 17/1200Z 25.0N 59.3W 90 KT

48HR VT 18/0000Z 27.6N 57.5W 80 KT

72HR VT 19/0000Z 34.0N 53.0W 65 KT

96HR VT 20/0000Z 41.0N 41.5W 55 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 21/0000Z 47.0N 25.0W 50 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane Omar Eyeballs Virgin Islands October 15, 2008

Atlantic Satellite 1015 2045Z

Hurricane Omar Forecast Track 1015 5pm

for a more recent update on Hurricane Omar, CLICK HERE.

for an interactive radar that allows you to navigate to the puerto rico radar site, CLICK HERE. navigate away from the ohio valley default and hit “animate” to loop.

For some reason people keep going to an old post about Tropical Storm Omar.

Hurricane Omar Visible Satellite 1015 2115Z

Omar became a Hurricane on Tuesday night and has continued to look farily impressive. Hurricane Omar is gaining strength as it’s been in an environment of weak shearing. The pressure has fallen to 973 mb and that has translated into 80 kt winds. As it moves into the Virgin Islands, winds of 100 mph will not be out of the question with some higher gusts. Hurricane Warnings are flying in

Hurricane Omar IR Satellite 1015 2115Z

the US and British Virgin Islands, St. Martin, Aguilla and most of the islands in the northern Antilles. While the storm should pass east of

Hurricane Omar Watches and Warnings 1015 5pm

Puerto Rico, that island nation will feel the effects as will the islands in the central Antilles. The storm will move rapidly into the north-central Atlantic and die in the colder waters of the north Atlantic. At this point, I’m not going to fool with Tropical Depression 16 as it has been stradling the northern Honduran coast. If it becomes Tropical Storm Paloma, it will be little more than an academic exercise as the region of Guatemala, Belize, Honduras and Nicaragua have been and will be feeling the effects of heavy rain with high flood potential. The National Hurricane Center Forecast Discussion for Hurricane Omar is below as well as spaghetti model data:

HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model 1015 18Z

TWO RECENT PASSES THROUGH OMAR’S EYE INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DECREASED BY AT LEAST 4 MB…DOWN TO 973 MB. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 89 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT…WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT AN
80-KT SURFACE WIND…DESPITE THE HIGHEST SFMR SURFACE MEASURED
HAVING ONLY BEEN 74 KT. HOWEVER…THE RECON AIRCRAFT AND THE
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN PLAYING A GAME OF CAT-AND-MOUSE…AND I DO NOT
BELIEVE THAT THE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 80 KT…WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE LOW GIVEN THAT THE PRESSURE-WIND
RELATIONSHIP FOR 973 MB CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 85 KT.

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1015 18Z

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/013. AFTER AN EARLIER JOG TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST…IT APPEARS THAT OMAR HAS RESUMED ITS BASE COURSE
BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR PHILOSOPHY AS ALL OF THE TRACK
MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN
12-18 HOURS HOURS. AFTER THAT…OMAR IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AS
IT GETS DRAWN RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD IN SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY DAY 3. DURING DAYS 4-5…OMAR IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR EASTWARD AT FORWARD SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KT AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE MUCH COOLER
WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS TRACK…AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN
THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS…WHICH HAS HAD A NOTICEABLE FAST FORWARD
SPEED BIAS.

STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE EYEWALL
AND RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN HAS INDICATED OCCASIONAL DISTINCT
MESOVORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE INNER PORTION OF THE EYEWALL. THIS
FAVORABLE SMALL-SCALE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD PERSISTS FOR ANOTHER
12 HOURS OR SO…WHICH MEANS THAT OMAR HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
REACHING AT LEAST CATEGORY 2 INTENSITY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE
GFDL MODEL WAS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH OMAR ON THE 12Z MODEL RUN AND
BRINGS THE HURRICANE UP TO 109 KT BY 18-24 HOURS. THAT MUCH
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVERDONE GIVEN SATELLITE INDICATIONS OF A
RAPIDLY SHRINKING CDO FEATURE…PLUS THE INTRUSION OF DRY MID-LEVEL
INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER…SINCE OMAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
29C SSTS…ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO 90 KT SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE
…AND WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT DURING THE USUAL
NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD. ALSO…INTERESTS IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE REMINDED THAT STRONGER WINDS…POSSIBLY ONE
CATEGORY HIGHER…CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN…ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 500 FT ELEVATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 15.9N 66.1W 80 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 17.6N 64.8W 85 KT…NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS
24HR VT 16/1800Z 20.4N 62.9W 90 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 23.2N 60.9W 90 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 26.1N 59.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 31.7N 54.8W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 39.0N 44.5W 60 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 20/1800Z 48.0N 27.0W 50 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Is Justice Too Blind? Can Whiskers Buy Votes? Is Omar a Howler? October 15, 2008

Rain Total Forecast Wed 1015 thru Fri 1018

for a link to a radar loop and a more recent update on hurricane Omar, CLICK HERE

As you can tell if you compare this outlook for the latter part of the week with the previous HPC forecast assessment of raintotals through Friday evening, you will notice much less anticipated around here. That is because there are a couple of scenarios but neither brings much rain here. The ETA today was advertising a little less than a half inch on Thursday afternoon and that was it. The GFS wanted a little early Thursday and a little early Friday totalling less than 1/10 of an inch. We feel like the truth is somewhere in between. While we think that Wednesday will be warm, the first little weak boundary may be sufficient to bring some showers early Thursday. Then the second push with the cold air associated with it, brings some light scattered activity on Friday. Look for sunshine over the weekend but highs on Saturday and Sunday of 60 and 68 respectively but with frost possible in some areas on Saturday night as everyone should fall to the 30′s.

Atlantic IR Satellite 1015 0115Z

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model 1015 00Z

Years ago, I saw Jimmy Buffett in Austin and his harmonica player, Greg “Fingers” Taylor performed the night before with “Omar and the Howlers”. Not sure what happened to that band…I think Fingers Taylor has still performed with Jimmy off and on over the years….but today we have Hurricane Omar, which is bearing down on the Virgin Islands. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten (Martin) and St. Barthelemy. Omar has looked pretty good on the satellite image and became a hurricane Tuesday evening. It’s still likely to move through the northeast Caribbean and into the open Atlantic where liners, freighters, oil tankers and pirates will have to deal with it.

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model 1015 00Z

Tropical Depression 16 is still generally expected to move along the Honduran coast and into Belize. A couple of models differ with that scenario and that may be a result of climatology built into the models. If the storm were to move slow enough, it would be possible for the ridge steering it move or break down and allow for some northward motion. But, that is not expected and the most serious aspect of this storm at this point is heavy rain and flood potential in Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala and Belize. The most interesting thing most likely will be if it becomes Tropical Storm Paloma or if it makes it across into the Pacific.

Look to the bottom of the post for the National Hurricane Center Discussion for both tropical systems as well as the forecast tracks and more graphical information.

Harper's Weekly Mar 9, 1861 Lincoln Sneaks Into Washington

Last Lincoln Portrait Apr 4 1865

On This Date in History: On October 15, 1860 the Republican nominee for President, Abraham Lincoln, received a letter from eleven-year-old Grace Bedell. At that time, women did not have the right to vote so young Grace urged Mr. Lincoln to grow a beard. She said, “All the ladies like whiskers and they will tease their husbands to vote for you and then you would be president.” But, Lincoln did not grow the beard until after he was elected. Most histories suggest that the beard was grown as a make-shift disguise for his arrival in Washington for the inaugural because there were so many threats against his life. He came to Washington under the cover of darkness, with the beard. But, Lincoln later responded to queries and said that the genesis of the beard was traced back to the letter of Grace Bedell.

Now, artists were alerted in advance that the President-elect would emerge at the inaugural with a beard. But no one knew what he would look like. So, they simply used existing photos and added beard styles of their choosing. I think it’s safe to say that none of them were able to fully reproduce the lasting image of “Father Abraham.”

Blindfold Too Tight For Frankie?

On This Date in 1899, Frankie of Frankie and Johnny were lovers fame shot her boyfriend. But, her lover was named Allen, also called Albert, not Johnny. The woman in question was Frances Baker and the then 22-year-old was acquitted in the murder of her 17-year-old boyfriend in a self defense stance. She said that she shot him only when he came to her house and drew a knife to kill her. She had a silver plated pistol at her bedside and shot him. But, the song claims that she shot him when she found him with another woman. Baker said that she knew that he was seeing Alice Pryor but “never fussed with her about it.” She also said that the song had it wrong when it said that she shot him “root a toot-toot-toot three times.” She said it only took one shot.

What really got Baker upset about her infamy in song was that the song questioned her virtue, calling her a “queen sport.” She had to move from St. Louis to Omaha and then Portland but couldn’t get away from the negative publicity. The song was turned into a play and then a movie in 1936 and Baker sued Republic Pictures for the use of the song. In her 1942 trial, she said she didn’t wear diamonds like the movie portrayed and only had cotton dresses, not the fancy clothes portrayed in the movie. In the end, the more she told her story, the more convinced the jurors of the court became that the song wasn’t even about her. Even though her St. Louis neighbors said the song was indeed about her, Frances “Frankie” Baker lost the case and returned to Portland and in 1950 was committed to a mental institution and died at age 75 two years later. But…her efforts were for naught. St. Louis for a time billed itself as the “birthplace of Frankie and Johnny” and no one deterred singers from reciting the lyrics “he was her man, but he done her wrong.”

So, the songwriters and movie script writers got the story so wrong that even the court didn’t believe that the song was about Frances Baker. Seems that Baker did too good of a job convincing the court that she was wrongly portrayed in song, and it cost her $200,000. Then again….Johnny…or Albert…or Allen…wasn’t able to tell his side of the story.

HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL152008 1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Hurricane Omar Forecast Track 1014 11pm

THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS EVENING…

Hurricane Omar IR Satellite 1015 0115Z

HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT OMAR HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. A NEARLY COMPLETE EYEWALL HAS BEEN SEEN AT TIMES ON THE CURACAO RADAR…AND OMAR HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z WERE BOTH T4.0…OR 65 KT. IN ADDITION… THE CIMSS ADT IS RUNNING AROUND T4.5…AND A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 66 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA…THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO…AND ALL THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FORECASTS OMAR TO

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1015 00Z

STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE CARIBBEAN. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A 60% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE…BUT IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/5. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC…AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE HWRF AND GFDL CONTINUE TO LIE ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE…WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT…BUT THE MODEL SPREAD IS NOT LARGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THIS TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL CLUSTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 14.3N 68.1W 65 KT

12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.1N 67.1W 75 KT

24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.7N 65.4W 85 KT

36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.3W 90 KT

48HR VT 17/0000Z 21.9N 61.1W 90 KT

72HR VT 18/0000Z 27.0N 58.0W 80 KT

96HR VT 19/0000Z 33.0N 54.0W 70 KT

120HR VT 20/0000Z 41.0N 44.0W 60 KT

$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008

1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Tropical Depression 16 Forecast Track 1014 11pm

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT IN LINE WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA. WITH THE SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SUFFICIENTLY WARM…THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER…ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION…RAPID DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 2 DAYS…BUT ONLY A SMALL

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1015 00Z

DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING THE CENTER OVER LAND SOONER…POTENTIALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION…A GENERAL WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 16.2N 83.8W 25 KT

12HR VT 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.6W 30 KT

24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.3N 85.8W 35 KT

36HR VT 16/1200Z 16.2N 87.2W 40 KT

48HR VT 17/0000Z 16.0N 88.5W 40 KT

72HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 91.0W 25 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 19/0000Z…DISSIPATED

$$ FORECASTER RHOME/SCHAUER CLARK

Tropical Storm Omar Looks Better While Tropical Depression 16 Looks Lost October 14, 2008

Atlantic IR Satellite 1014 2015Z

Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Track 1014 5pm EDT

for a more recent update on hurricane omar with a link to a radar loop, CLICK HERE

Tropical Storm Omar Became a Hurricane Tuesday Night (click here)

There really isn’t much different from the midday action regarding the tropics.

Tropical Storm Omar Vis Satellite 1014 2015Z

Tropical Storm Omar is looking pretty impressive on the visible satellite and will probably becomea hurricane. It won’t pose a problem unless you are heading to the Virgin Islands, St. Kitts, Barbuda or Antigua. After it passes through the Antilles it goes into the Central Atlantic where it will die a slow death in cold waters. Really, aside from the islands, it is a maritime concern.

Tropical Depression 16 Forecast Track 1014 5pm EDT

Tropical Depression 16 is so broad that its difficult to pin point a center but from the Satellite I’d wager that its just off the Northeastern Honduran Coast. The official forecast has it moving on the edge of a ridge to the

Tropical Depression 16 IR Satellite 1014 2015Z

north and moving generally parallel to the Honduran coast and then into Belize. The amount of land interaction will determine whether or not it becomes Poloma. It may be interesting to see if it survives enough to re-emerge over the Pacific and cause trouble. The only concern here, and its not that great, is that the storm moves so slowly that the ridge to the north breaks down and allows for motion to the north, which would then create a scenario for a threat to the US, primarily Florida. But there is a general consensus in the modeling data that does not support such a movement at this time…but its worth taking note. Otherwise, Nana is off the board and Invest 90 is pretty worthless at the moment.

Here is the National Hurricane Center Forecast Discussion for 5pm for Tropical Depression 16 and Tropical Storm Omar. Also find spaghetti models.

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model 1014 18Z

SATELLITE…RADAR…AND AIR FORCE RECON DATA INDICATE THAT OMAR HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE ONLY BEEN 63 KT…RELIABLE SFMR
SURFACE WIND DATA HAVE BEEN AS HIGH 57-60 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A
DROPSONDE WAS 986 MB…BUT THE SURFACE WIND WAS 46 KT. THEREFORE…
THE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 982 MB AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO A CONSERVATIVE 60 KT. OMAR CONTINUES TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZED IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY…AND VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS OF -80C TO -87C PERSIST OVER AND NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF OMAR…THE FLIGHT CREW
REPORTED A 10-15 NMI DIAMETER EYE WAS FORMING. OUTFLOW ALSO
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS…EXCEPT TO THE
NORTHWEST WHERE IT IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED.

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 18Z

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 060/06. THE THREE RECON FIXES
THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST THAT OMAR MAY BE FINALLY MAKING THE TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL CYCLES. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ON A TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT
36 HOURS…WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS
OMAR GETS LIFTED RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DIGGING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS IN THE FORWARD
SPEED OF OMAR AFTER 24 HOURS. THE GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF MODELS RACE
OMAR QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST…WHEREAS THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE NOTICEABLY SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS…BUT
REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING…POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION… IS
EXPECTED SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS…GFDL… AND HWRF MODELS…AND OMAR IS EXPECTED TO
OBTAIN CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS OMAR TO 104 KT BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER…THE 12Z
HWRF MODEL ONLY BRINGS OMAR TO 88 KT AND THE GFDL ONLY STRENGTHENS
THE CYCLONE TO 62 KT. BASED ON A STRONGER VORTEX INITIALIZED BY THE
MODELS FOR THE 18Z CYCLE…OUTPUT FROM THOSE MODELS DUE OUT IN A
FEW HOURS MAY BE QUITE DIFFERENT AND MUCH STRONGER. AS A RESULT…
SUBSEQUENT NHC INTENSITY FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 14.0N 68.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 14.6N 68.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 15.9N 66.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 18.0N 64.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 20.6N 62.1W 85 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 26.0N 58.4W 80 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 31.1N 55.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 38.0N 49.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model 1014 18Z

CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS THINNED DURING
THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER…A FEW BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT
HAS VERY RECENTLY FIXED A CENTER ABOUT 45 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
APPARENT CENTER SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY…WHICH SUGGEST
THE DEPRESSION IS LESS WELL ORGANIZED THAN IT APPEARS. FOR THE
TIME BEING…WE WILL GO WITH THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE DETERMINED FROM THE SATELLITE IMAGERY…BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED WHEN WE ARE
MORE CERTAIN OF THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER. REGARDLESS…
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT…AND NO MORE THAN AROUND
25-30 KT IN AND NEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 25 KT.

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 18Z

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY…THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. ABOUT HALF OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CENTER
INLAND OVER HONDURAS…WHILE THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE CENTER ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TO THE LATTER OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND KEEPS THE
CENTER JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…BUT THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE SAME AS THIS MORNING. A
TRACK OFFSHORE WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT…FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING…WHILE A TRACK
SOUTH OF MY FORECAST WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM INLAND MUCH EARLIER.
SINCE THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOWS A
LITTLE LESS TIME OVER WATER…THE PEAK INTENSITY IS A LITTLE LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 15.7N 83.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 15.9N 84.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.1N 86.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 15.9N 88.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 15.5N 90.5W 25 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 18/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN