Rain Total Forecast Wed 1015 thru Fri 1018
for a link to a radar loop and a more recent update on hurricane Omar, CLICK HERE
As you can tell if you compare this outlook for the latter part of the week with the previous HPC forecast assessment of raintotals through Friday evening, you will notice much less anticipated around here. That is because there are a couple of scenarios but neither brings much rain here. The ETA today was advertising a little less than a half inch on Thursday afternoon and that was it. The GFS wanted a little early Thursday and a little early Friday totalling less than 1/10 of an inch. We feel like the truth is somewhere in between. While we think that Wednesday will be warm, the first little weak boundary may be sufficient to bring some showers early Thursday. Then the second push with the cold air associated with it, brings some light scattered activity on Friday. Look for sunshine over the weekend but highs on Saturday and Sunday of 60 and 68 respectively but with frost possible in some areas on Saturday night as everyone should fall to the 30′s.
Atlantic IR Satellite 1015 0115Z
Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model 1015 00Z
Years ago, I saw Jimmy Buffett in Austin and his harmonica player, Greg “Fingers” Taylor performed the night before with “Omar and the Howlers”. Not sure what happened to that band…I think Fingers Taylor has still performed with Jimmy off and on over the years….but today we have Hurricane Omar, which is bearing down on the Virgin Islands. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten (Martin) and St. Barthelemy. Omar has looked pretty good on the satellite image and became a hurricane Tuesday evening. It’s still likely to move through the northeast Caribbean and into the open Atlantic where liners, freighters, oil tankers and pirates will have to deal with it.
Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model 1015 00Z
Tropical Depression 16 is still generally expected to move along the Honduran coast and into Belize. A couple of models differ with that scenario and that may be a result of climatology built into the models. If the storm were to move slow enough, it would be possible for the ridge steering it move or break down and allow for some northward motion. But, that is not expected and the most serious aspect of this storm at this point is heavy rain and flood potential in Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala and Belize. The most interesting thing most likely will be if it becomes Tropical Storm Paloma or if it makes it across into the Pacific.
Look to the bottom of the post for the National Hurricane Center Discussion for both tropical systems as well as the forecast tracks and more graphical information.
Harper's Weekly Mar 9, 1861 Lincoln Sneaks Into Washington
Last Lincoln Portrait Apr 4 1865
On This Date in History: On October 15, 1860 the Republican nominee for President, Abraham Lincoln, received a letter from eleven-year-old Grace Bedell. At that time, women did not have the right to vote so young Grace urged Mr. Lincoln to grow a beard. She said, “All the ladies like whiskers and they will tease their husbands to vote for you and then you would be president.” But, Lincoln did not grow the beard until after he was elected. Most histories suggest that the beard was grown as a make-shift disguise for his arrival in Washington for the inaugural because there were so many threats against his life. He came to Washington under the cover of darkness, with the beard. But, Lincoln later responded to queries and said that the genesis of the beard was traced back to the letter of Grace Bedell.
Now, artists were alerted in advance that the President-elect would emerge at the inaugural with a beard. But no one knew what he would look like. So, they simply used existing photos and added beard styles of their choosing. I think it’s safe to say that none of them were able to fully reproduce the lasting image of “Father Abraham.”
Blindfold Too Tight For Frankie?
On This Date in 1899, Frankie of Frankie and Johnny were lovers fame shot her boyfriend. But, her lover was named Allen, also called Albert, not Johnny. The woman in question was Frances Baker and the then 22-year-old was acquitted in the murder of her 17-year-old boyfriend in a self defense stance. She said that she shot him only when he came to her house and drew a knife to kill her. She had a silver plated pistol at her bedside and shot him. But, the song claims that she shot him when she found him with another woman. Baker said that she knew that he was seeing Alice Pryor but “never fussed with her about it.” She also said that the song had it wrong when it said that she shot him “root a toot-toot-toot three times.” She said it only took one shot.
What really got Baker upset about her infamy in song was that the song questioned her virtue, calling her a “queen sport.” She had to move from St. Louis to Omaha and then Portland but couldn’t get away from the negative publicity. The song was turned into a play and then a movie in 1936 and Baker sued Republic Pictures for the use of the song. In her 1942 trial, she said she didn’t wear diamonds like the movie portrayed and only had cotton dresses, not the fancy clothes portrayed in the movie. In the end, the more she told her story, the more convinced the jurors of the court became that the song wasn’t even about her. Even though her St. Louis neighbors said the song was indeed about her, Frances “Frankie” Baker lost the case and returned to Portland and in 1950 was committed to a mental institution and died at age 75 two years later. But…her efforts were for naught. St. Louis for a time billed itself as the “birthplace of Frankie and Johnny” and no one deterred singers from reciting the lyrics “he was her man, but he done her wrong.”
So, the songwriters and movie script writers got the story so wrong that even the court didn’t believe that the song was about Frances Baker. Seems that Baker did too good of a job convincing the court that she was wrongly portrayed in song, and it cost her $200,000. Then again….Johnny…or Albert…or Allen…wasn’t able to tell his side of the story.
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
AL152008 1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
Hurricane Omar Forecast Track 1014 11pm
THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS EVENING…
Hurricane Omar IR Satellite 1015 0115Z
HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT OMAR HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. A NEARLY COMPLETE EYEWALL HAS BEEN SEEN AT TIMES ON THE CURACAO RADAR…AND OMAR HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z WERE BOTH T4.0…OR 65 KT. IN ADDITION… THE CIMSS ADT IS RUNNING AROUND T4.5…AND A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 66 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA…THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO…AND ALL THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FORECASTS OMAR TO
Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1015 00Z
STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE CARIBBEAN. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A 60% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE…BUT IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/5. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC…AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE HWRF AND GFDL CONTINUE TO LIE ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE…WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT…BUT THE MODEL SPREAD IS NOT LARGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THIS TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL CLUSTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0300Z 14.3N 68.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.1N 67.1W 75 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.7N 65.4W 85 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 21.9N 61.1W 90 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 27.0N 58.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 33.0N 54.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 41.0N 44.0W 60 KT
$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
Tropical Depression 16 Forecast Track 1014 11pm
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT IN LINE WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA. WITH THE SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SUFFICIENTLY WARM…THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER…ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION…RAPID DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 2 DAYS…BUT ONLY A SMALL
Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1015 00Z
DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING THE CENTER OVER LAND SOONER…POTENTIALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION…A GENERAL WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0300Z 16.2N 83.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.3N 85.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 16.2N 87.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 16.0N 88.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 91.0W 25 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 19/0000Z…DISSIPATED
$$ FORECASTER RHOME/SCHAUER CLARK