Turn Out the Lights, Turn Up the Heat and Viva Alaska!
October 18, 2008

In the 30's On Saturday Night

In the 30s on Saturday Night

Hope Your Heater Works: As expected we had a much cooler day than we’ve seen in quite some time. An upper low will work its way through overnight bringing some light showers and clouds but the showers will probably not be that signficant and will end shortly after sunrise. The clouds won’t stick around long thereafter and the sun will be dominant by Saturday afternoon but area highs won’t get out of the low 60′s. Saturday night, the mercury will fall to the 30′s area wide with some places in the low 30′s. Hope your heaters work and be careful if you haven’t used yours yet this year. Check it out prior to use. Then get ready for your bill. I had figured that my gas rate had increased by 39%. LG & E corrected me. They claim its 65%!! Apparently I missed an interim increase. Natural gas prices have fallen quite a bit since they adjusted the rates in July. Hopefully when they readjust in November, they will come back down because I don’t want to have heating bills this winter like I had a few years ago…nor do you.

Tropical Storm Omar Satellite Image 1018 0245Z

Tropical Storm Omar Satellite Image 1018 0245Z

Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Track 1017 11pm

Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Track 1017 11pm

Tropical Storm Omar is useless but if you want to read about it, check out below. But, at least you can find it now on the satellite imagery and is certainly much better looking that it was. It is moving over much colder water and as it continues northeast it will run into frontal zones. In short, Omar’s days are numbered. I think its still going to be interesting to see if it eventually affects Europe in whatever shape or form it is in. Remember, the role of tropical cyclones in nature is to transport heat and moisture from the tropical regions to the polar regions. They are not trying to melt the polar ice caps, they are just doing what they are supposed to do and this year, in the Atlantic Basin, they have done a very good job with several storms making it into the northern latitudes.

Want To See the $7.2 Million Dollar Check For Alaska Purchase?

Want To See the $7.2 Million Dollar Check For Alaska Purchase?

Gov. Palin Owes Career To William H Seward?

Gov. Palin Owes Career To William H Seward?

Governor Palin’s Path is Set: Had it not been for the dogged determination of Secretary of State William H. Seward, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin may be be the Vice-Presidential nominee of the Republican Party.

In the 19th Century, Russia laid claim to the Alaskan territory with the establishment of the fur-trading Russian-American Company. The company was quite profitable for awhile but by the 1860′s, business wasn’t too good. In order for the company to remain viable, the Tsar would have to heavily subsidize operations. Only a few hundred Russians had emigrated to Alaska and the Russians had no way of defending the vast region. The Tsar and his ministers thought it was in their best interest to sell the land to the Americans rather than lose it in battle to one of the world powers, like Great Britain.

Thanks Bill! Monty Hall Would Be Proud!

Thanks Bill! Monty Hall Would Be Proud!

In 1867. Secretary of State William Seward began negotiations to acquire the territory. Now, Seward was a hold-over from the Lincoln administration and was serving under President Andrew Johnson at the time. Johnson became quite unpopular due to his Reconstruction policies and some in the public derisively called the plan “Seward’s Folly”, “Seward’s Ice Box” or “Andrew Johnson’s Polar Bear Garden.” There were also facticious calls for the opening of the “Polar Bear Bureau” and the establishment of the “Superintendent of Walruses.” At the time, it was seen as a vast, empty wilderness. But, some histories now suggest that most of the general public thought it was a shrewd deal. Political opponents in Congress who were trying to figure out how to impeach Johnson delayed approval of the $7.2 million needed to complete the deal. But, perhaps because public opposition wasn’t as great as has been advertised, Congress ratified the deal on April 9, 1867 to acquire an area about twice the size of Texas being purchased for $7.2 million, or about 2 cents an acre. Funny thing is, Congress didn’t appropriate the money until July 1868. If you notice the Check above is dated August 1868. Guess the Tsar didn’t care too much about the slow payment but I suppose any Americans in Alaska before the check cleared could be considered to be squatters. Anyway, the public

Bill Had a Great Catch for the US

Bill Had a Great Catch for the US

remained generally non-plussed about the deal until gold was discovered in 1896 and suddenly the acquisition wasn’t such a folly after all. As time went on, the deal became to be on par with buying Manhattan for $24.

Today, 25% of America’s oil comes from Alaska and about half of the seafood. It also produces a huge amount of natural gas, timber and other natural resources. Today, it has produced “Sarah Barracuda”, the first female Republican nominee for Vice-President. Alaska became a state in 1959 and there are two state

Johnson's Polar Bear Swimming Pool?

Andrew Johnson's Polar Bear Swimming Pool?

holidays marking its heritage. One is “Seward’s Day” which is in March every year to mark the day that William Seward signed the treaty (Mar 30, 1867) and the other is on October 18, which commemorates This date in History when on October 18, 1867, the United States formally took possession of the 586, 412 square miles of Alaska. If this Global Warming caper goes the way that Mr. Gore suggests, then “Andrew Johnson’s Polar Bear Garden” will have to find a new name…perhaps “Andrew Johnson’s Polar Bear Swimming Pool” would be more appropriate.

A True American Genius

A No Doubt About It Genius

Turn Out the Lights For Edison

Turn Out the Lights For Edison

Turn out the Lights: On this date in 1931, perhaps the greatest single inventor in the history of the world died. Thomas Alva Edison died in West Orange, New Jersey at the age of 84. Upon his death, President Hoover asked all americans to turn out the lights for one minute. He had considered having all power plants across the nation be shut down but his advisors reminded him that electricity had become such a part of the American fabric that doing so would place many people at extreme risk. So, Hoover took the Republican approach of asking for a volunteer effort. Too bad he didn’t take a Republican view of taxes as, in the wake of the stock market crash, Hoover raised taxes and most economic historians point to his raising of taxes and tariffs that led to the Great Depression, not the stock market crash….anyway….

Thomas Edison’s 1093 US patents is a record that will probably never be even remotely challenged. There are a couple of links of Edison to Louisville. For a brief period of time when he was young, Edison lived in a small house in Louisville near Butchertown. (you can visit the home) One of his most famous inventions was the first practical incandescent light

Benefactor to the World

Benefactor to the World

bulb in 1879. In 1883, the Southern Exposition opened in Louisville with a display of 20,000 incandescent lights making it the largest display in this history of the world at that time. The number of lights in Louisville at that time was more than the entire city of New York. Please take the time to READ THIS EDISON BIOGRAPHY as it does a far better justice than I could do to bring to the attention one of the most influential people in the history of the United States, and even the world, not just in the 19th and 20th century and far beyond. While it was not patented, Edison actually invented the modern method of invention…a footnote that is often lost in most history lessons.

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008

1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH OMAR HAS DECREASED AGAIN THIS EVENING…WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION IN A RAGGED BAND WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER…AN AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 20Z SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS A DEEP-LAYER WARM CORE…WHICH SSM/I IMAGERY SHOWS IS SURROUNDED BY MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY/COOL AIR. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 22Z SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE WINDS FROM THE EARLIER OVERPASS…WITH NO RELIABLE-LOOKING VECTORS SHOWING WINDS OF MORE THAN 45 TO 50 KT. AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 20Z WERE 55 TO 60 KT…WHILE REGULAR SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE TROPICAL 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SUBTROPICAL 35-40 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES…AND THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS. THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA. OMAR HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/14. IN THE SHORT TERM…OMAR SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE FIRST 48 HR OF THE FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE. AFTER 48 HR…THE GFS… ECMWF…UKMET..AND HWRF SHOW OMAR BEING ABSORBED INTO A BAROCLINIC LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC…THIS AFTER OMAR TURNS MORE NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. THE NOGAPS…THE BAMD…THE BAMM…AND THE LBAR FORECAST OMAR TO TURN EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/HWRF SOLUTION…CALLING FOR OMAR TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 72 HR. HOWEVER…OUT OF DEFERENCE TO THE OTHER MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST…THE NEW FORECAST IS NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THAT OF THOSE MODELS. OMAR IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 26C…AND IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 24 HR. WHILE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP CANNOT BE RULED OUT…THESE CONDITIONS INDICATE THE STORM SHOULD GENERALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OMAR SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 48-72 HR AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. IF THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/HWRF SCENARIO VERIFIES…OMAR WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE WARM FRONT OF THE ONCOMING BAROCLINIC LOW…WITH THE FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOWING LITTLE RE-INTENSIFICATION AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 48-96 HR PORTION OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 31.5N 52.8W 55 KT

12HR VT 18/1200Z 33.3N 51.1W 50 KT

24HR VT 19/0000Z 35.1N 48.7W 45 KT

36HR VT 19/1200Z 36.7N 46.2W 40 KT

48HR VT 20/0000Z 38.3N 43.2W 35 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 21/0000Z 39.5N 39.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 22/0000Z 42.0N 36.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 23/0000Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$ FORECASTER BEVEN

You Can’t Sue God and Only God Can Help Hurricane (Tropical Storm) Omar
October 17, 2008

Kentucky Hammer Can't Help This Time

Kentucky Hammer Can't Help This Time

for a more recent update on Omar, CLICK HERE

Miracle on 34th Street Decision: Do you remember Miracle on 34th Street? I like the original version with Fred Mertz (William Frawley) advising the judge in the case that would determine whether or not Kris Kringle was Santa Claus. Rather than rule against St. Nick, the judge came up with a creative ruling in that he deferred to the wisdom of the US Postal Service. Well, in a case in which a man tried to sue God, this judge came up with a ruling that would make Fred Mertz proud. Read below:

You Can’t Sue God

Keep an eye on Central America?

Keep an eye on Central America?

Tropical Storm Omar IR Satellite 1017 1445Z

Tropical Storm Omar IR Satellite 1017 1445Z

Hurricane Omar has seen it’s better day: There are a couple of disturbances

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model 1017 12Z

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model 1017 12Z

being monitored. One is the remnant of Tropical Depression 16 in Central America and the other is a little guy off the NE South America. I had mentioned some days ago about the risk of Tropical Depression 16 moving so slowly that it does not move west and increases the chances for it getting caught up in a more climatologically favored flow that would turn it north.

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1017 12Z

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1017 12Z

There is nothing to suggest that at the moment. But I do find it interesting that the National Hurricane Center has determined that it is not moving and that they mention that it is not expected to move into the Caribbean in the next two days. If it was not a possibility, then why mention that and why put a time frame on the reference? Probably worth keeping up on if you live in Florida. Hurricane Omar is now Tropical Storm Omar and while the boys at the National Hurricane Center still hang on to the notion that it may have one final chance to kick it back up a notch, I still suggest that it is done for. Certainly, it is not a threat to any major land masses at this point unless it holds together as an extratropical storm on down the line and it affects Europe adversely. Otherwise, it is nothing more than a maritime concern. Here is the National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Discussion:

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008

1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

OMAR HAS RE-INTENSIFIED SOME THIS MORNING AS SHOWN IN THE STRONGLY CURVED BANDED STRUCTURE FROM GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB SUGGESTED 55 KT AT 12 UTC…THOUGH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE WOULD INDICATE A STRONGER CYCLONE AT ADVISORY TIME. ADDITIONALLY…A WELL-PLACED QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0922 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 55-60 KT VECTORS AND TWO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…THOUGH THESE MIGHT HAVE SOME RAIN CONTAMINATION BOOSTING THE VALUES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT…ALTHOUGH OMAR COULD BE A MARGINAL HURRICANE. OMAR HAS ACCELERATED TO ABOUT 30 KT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS TROUGH ADVECTS ALONG QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND LEAVES OMAR BEHIND…LIKELY CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM THAT WILL EMERGE OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY IS THE FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO ABSORB OMAR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS…WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS WHICH MAINTAINS OMAR AS A SEPARATE ENTITY AND LOOPS IT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED A BLEND OF A CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS…WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS…AND THE FASTER PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OMAR HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATERS AND UNDER MUCH STRONGER SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY…OMAR IS MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF…BUT FASTER THAN… THE SHEAR VECTOR…WHICH MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT COUNTERACTED THE OTHERWISE LARGE NEGATIVE SHEAR INFLUENCE. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NEARLY SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN THE MID TO LOW TROPOSPHERE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WINDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER …IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM STATISTICAL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 28.9N 55.1W 60 KT

12HR VT 18/0000Z 31.4N 53.2W 60 KT

24HR VT 18/1200Z 33.4N 51.3W 55 KT

36HR VT 19/0000Z 35.1N 49.2W 50 KT

48HR VT 19/1200Z 36.6N 47.0W 45 KT

72HR VT 20/1200Z 39.0N 42.0W 40 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 21/1200Z 40.5N 36.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 22/1200Z…ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

Tropical Storm Omar Looks Better While Tropical Depression 16 Looks Lost
October 14, 2008

Atlantic IR Satellite 1014 2015Z

Atlantic IR Satellite 1014 2015Z

Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Track 1014 5pm EDT

Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Track 1014 5pm EDT

for a more recent update on hurricane omar with a link to a radar loop, CLICK HERE

Tropical Storm Omar Became a Hurricane Tuesday Night (click here)

There really isn’t much different from the midday action regarding the tropics.

Tropical Storm Omar Vis Satellite 1014 2015Z

Tropical Storm Omar Vis Satellite 1014 2015Z

Tropical Storm Omar is looking pretty impressive on the visible satellite and will probably becomea hurricane. It won’t pose a problem unless you are heading to the Virgin Islands, St. Kitts, Barbuda or Antigua. After it passes through the Antilles it goes into the Central Atlantic where it will die a slow death in cold waters. Really, aside from the islands, it is a maritime concern.

Tropical Depression 16 Forecast Track 1014 5pm EDT

Tropical Depression 16 Forecast Track 1014 5pm EDT

Tropical Depression 16 is so broad that its difficult to pin point a center but from the Satellite I’d wager that its just off the Northeastern Honduran Coast. The official forecast has it moving on the edge of a ridge to the

Tropical Depression 16 IR Satellite 1014 2015Z

Tropical Depression 16 IR Satellite 1014 2015Z

north and moving generally parallel to the Honduran coast and then into Belize. The amount of land interaction will determine whether or not it becomes Poloma. It may be interesting to see if it survives enough to re-emerge over the Pacific and cause trouble. The only concern here, and its not that great, is that the storm moves so slowly that the ridge to the north breaks down and allows for motion to the north, which would then create a scenario for a threat to the US, primarily Florida. But there is a general consensus in the modeling data that does not support such a movement at this time…but its worth taking note. Otherwise, Nana is off the board and Invest 90 is pretty worthless at the moment.

Here is the National Hurricane Center Forecast Discussion for 5pm for Tropical Depression 16 and Tropical Storm Omar. Also find spaghetti models.

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model 1014 18Z

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model 1014 18Z

SATELLITE…RADAR…AND AIR FORCE RECON DATA INDICATE THAT OMAR HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE ONLY BEEN 63 KT…RELIABLE SFMR
SURFACE WIND DATA HAVE BEEN AS HIGH 57-60 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A
DROPSONDE WAS 986 MB…BUT THE SURFACE WIND WAS 46 KT. THEREFORE…
THE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 982 MB AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO A CONSERVATIVE 60 KT. OMAR CONTINUES TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZED IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY…AND VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS OF -80C TO -87C PERSIST OVER AND NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF OMAR…THE FLIGHT CREW
REPORTED A 10-15 NMI DIAMETER EYE WAS FORMING. OUTFLOW ALSO
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS…EXCEPT TO THE
NORTHWEST WHERE IT IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED.

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 18Z

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 18Z

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 060/06. THE THREE RECON FIXES
THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST THAT OMAR MAY BE FINALLY MAKING THE TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL CYCLES. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ON A TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT
36 HOURS…WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS
OMAR GETS LIFTED RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DIGGING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS IN THE FORWARD
SPEED OF OMAR AFTER 24 HOURS. THE GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF MODELS RACE
OMAR QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST…WHEREAS THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE NOTICEABLY SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS…BUT
REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING…POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION… IS
EXPECTED SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS…GFDL… AND HWRF MODELS…AND OMAR IS EXPECTED TO
OBTAIN CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS OMAR TO 104 KT BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER…THE 12Z
HWRF MODEL ONLY BRINGS OMAR TO 88 KT AND THE GFDL ONLY STRENGTHENS
THE CYCLONE TO 62 KT. BASED ON A STRONGER VORTEX INITIALIZED BY THE
MODELS FOR THE 18Z CYCLE…OUTPUT FROM THOSE MODELS DUE OUT IN A
FEW HOURS MAY BE QUITE DIFFERENT AND MUCH STRONGER. AS A RESULT…
SUBSEQUENT NHC INTENSITY FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 14.0N 68.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 14.6N 68.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 15.9N 66.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 18.0N 64.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 20.6N 62.1W 85 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 26.0N 58.4W 80 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 31.1N 55.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 38.0N 49.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model 1014 18Z

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model 1014 18Z

CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS THINNED DURING
THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER…A FEW BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT
HAS VERY RECENTLY FIXED A CENTER ABOUT 45 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
APPARENT CENTER SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY…WHICH SUGGEST
THE DEPRESSION IS LESS WELL ORGANIZED THAN IT APPEARS. FOR THE
TIME BEING…WE WILL GO WITH THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE DETERMINED FROM THE SATELLITE IMAGERY…BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED WHEN WE ARE
MORE CERTAIN OF THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER. REGARDLESS…
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT…AND NO MORE THAN AROUND
25-30 KT IN AND NEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 25 KT.

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 18Z

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 18Z

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY…THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. ABOUT HALF OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CENTER
INLAND OVER HONDURAS…WHILE THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE CENTER ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TO THE LATTER OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND KEEPS THE
CENTER JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…BUT THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE SAME AS THIS MORNING. A
TRACK OFFSHORE WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT…FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING…WHILE A TRACK
SOUTH OF MY FORECAST WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM INLAND MUCH EARLIER.
SINCE THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOWS A
LITTLE LESS TIME OVER WATER…THE PEAK INTENSITY IS A LITTLE LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 15.7N 83.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 15.9N 84.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.1N 86.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 15.9N 88.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 15.5N 90.5W 25 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 18/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

Tropical Storm Omar Shows Up; Tropical Depression 16
October 14, 2008

Atlantic Visible Satellite 1014 1415Z

Atlantic Visible Satellite 1014 1415Z

Tropical Storm Omar became a hurricane on Tuesday night (click here)

As I had indicated earlier, the two systems worth watching are the two that are on the upswing. Former Tropical Storm Nana is worthless and it’s partner, Invest 90 is a long way from becoming name worthy.

Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Track 1014 11AM

Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Track 1014 11AM

Tropical Depression 15, as anticipated, is now Tropical Storm Omar. It is just

Tropical Storm Omar IR Satellite 1014 1345Z

Tropical Storm Omar IR Satellite 1014 1345Z

meandering in the Eastern Caribbean and while it dawdles, it should get picked up by some trofiness that will pick it up and move it north and then north-northeast. The models prog the system as a developing hurricane and the satellite imagery looks fairly worthwhile. The track will make it a rain and wind maker for the islands and then be generally a concern for maritime interests.

Invest 99 has turned into Tropical Depression 16 and may

Tropical Depression 16 Forecast Track 1014 11AM

Tropical Depression 16 Forecast Track 1014 11AM

become Tropical Storm Paloma. The interesting facets of this system are its

Tropical Depression 16 IR Satellite 1014 1345Z

Tropical Depression 16 IR Satellite 1014 1345Z

proximity and also the forecast track. It is just off of the Honduran coast and is forecast to move to the northwest and then west, basically paralleling the Honduran coast. With this forecast track, it is progged to become Tropical Storm Paloma. However, should its central core move slightly west of the forecast track, then it will be on shore and development would be tough, if not impossible. Either way, its slow movement will produce a whole mess of rain in Honduras and Nicaragua and surrounding Central American nations and those areas are notorious for not being able to handle extreme rain very well. One note of concern is that as this guy moves slowly, the more time there would be for steering currents to change…perhaps a trof building down or a ridge building in, that would turn this guy north. While only a handful of the models advertise this and it is contrary to the official forecast track, the slow movement must cause one to keep that possibility in the back of one’s mind as such an event might create a scenario that would eventually affect the US and this time of year, that scenario becomes a little more likely than at earlier times in the hurricane season.

The National Hurricane Center Discussions for Tropical Depression 16 and Tropical Storm Omar along with spaghetti models are below:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model 1014 12Z

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model 1014 12Z

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH
ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS AND AN 1110 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE COAST OF
EASTERN HONDURAS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT...BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF
THE INTENSITY.
Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 12Z

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 12Z

THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/6. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE PREDICTS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST VERY SOON TO THE SOUTH OF
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS PREDICT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WHICH
BRINGS THE CENTER INLAND OVER EASTERN HONDURAS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTION...WHICH KEEP THE
CENTER OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS AND THEN MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE.  HOWEVER...IT
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN
HONDURAS...THEREFORE...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS AS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THEIR COUNTRY.

THE EXACT TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON
THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE.  IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...SO INTENSIFICATION WOULD
APPEAR LIKELY.  OF COURSE...IF THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OF OVER LAND
THE CHANGES FOR STRENGTHENING WOULD BE MUCH LESS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS THE CENTER OVER WATER...CALLS FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/1500Z 15.6N  83.0W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N  83.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 16.3N  84.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 16.4N  85.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 16.3N  87.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 16.2N  89.0W    55 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 16.3N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model 1014 12Z

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model 1014 12Z

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH SOME TOPS TO -86C NEAR THE CENTER. OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED
IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS LESS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST NOW. THE
INITIAL ADVISORY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT
SATELLITE ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...PLUS
SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 30-34 KT QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT AROUND 1036Z THIS MORNING. THUS...TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OMAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 115/02. OMAR HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH
Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 12Z

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 12Z

TO SOUTHEASTWARD THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND CURRENTLY SHOWS NO SIGN OF
CHANGING THAT MOTION. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A BROAD DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY
PICK UP OMAR AND NUDGE IT TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...
AND THEN ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. THE LATEST
TREND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG 70W LONGITUDE CAN BE SEEN DIGGING DUE SOUTH.
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED CROSS-WISE...BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND JUST HOW SOON OMAR
GETS PICKED UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST OR RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...BUT NOT AS FAR
EAST OR AS FAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO-LIKE AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION
SUGGESTS THAT OMAR MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING.
IN ADDITION...A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
THAT HAS BEEN DISRUPTING INFLOW INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTIVE
FORCING TO OCCUR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW
PATTERN AND A FORECAST OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FURTHER SUPPORTS A FORECAST OF
STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF AT LEAST ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GREATER
THAN 20 KT...SO THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY DAY 2
AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/1500Z 14.0N  69.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 14.7N  68.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 15.8N  67.3W    55 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 17.3N  65.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 19.1N  63.6W    65 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 23.8N  60.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 28.0N  58.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 33.0N  55.0W    65 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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