Hurricane Ike and the Turtle September 6, 2008

for a more recent update on hurricane ike, CLICK HERE

Louisville Weather: The weekend looks good. Clouds will lurk the first part of Saturday but never fear, the sun will be here. Saturday afternoon, partly cloudy with highs in the upper 70′s and low 80′s. Sunday, plenty of sunshine, highs in the mid 80′s. Expected big cool-down doesn’t get here until next weekend.

Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Track 0905 11pm

Tropical Storm Hanna is behaving itself and should remain as a tropical storm as it moves inland near Myrtle Beach, head to Dover Delaware and then to Boston. Its will move very fast and be leaving the coast of Maine by Sunday evening. For a Tropical Storm Hanna Radar Loop, CLICK HERE. Navigate to street level, add clouds and lightning. Hit “animate” to loop the image. It’s not pixelie so knock yourself out. Inland flooding should be limited due to its rapid speed. I would think that one of the biggest threats would be tornadoes and it will be interesting to see what the seas do off of New England.

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0906 11pm

Hurricane Ike: I went to a movie premiere tonight on which Snow White did the make-up work. On the one hand, I was surprised when I looked at the models but then again, I wasn’t. See, I told you on Wednesday that we had been expecting a big front here in the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Its not too unusual when you get into the seasonal change that the models have the general story right but has the timing wrong. In this case, we still have decidedly cooler air coming down the pike, but it won’t be until next weekend. Cold air wants to dive into the US but other features come along that holds it up until it’s allowed to come down. That usually just makes for an adjustment of the long term forecast. In this case, it throws the hurricane forecast into a real stir. Several days ago, the story was for Ike to run across Cuba or south of Florida and

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0906 00Z

into the Gulf. Then the hurricane models picked up on the front coming through here. If we get a front here that drops our overnight lows into the 40′s, then one would accept the idea that it will go pretty deep and generally quickly, so it made some sense for a number of the models to turn the storm as it was approaching, or before, it got to Florida. Well, now that the models have been keeping the cold air bottled up and, therefore, no trofs digging south, the advertised notion is that the ridge hangs tough or even builds west. So, instead of turning the storm, a the majority of the models are back to taking Hurricane Ike south of the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf.

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0906 00Z

After that…it gets murky. For instance. The 18Z GFS took the storm around the

Hurricane Ike Intensity Probability Table 0905 11pm

Florida peninsula and wrapped it back to landfall between Tampa and Tallahassee. Now, the 00Z GFS takes it across Cuba and heads it west across the Gulf of Mexico and has it hang around in the Central Gulf before taking it toward the central Louisiana coast in about 6 days. That is reasonably close what the 12Z ECMWF does, though its a more direct and slightly quicker route to south Louisiana. Both of these time frames reflect getting caught up by the trof that should be moving through Louisville on Friday night. If you buy the deep digging trof notion, then they both make sense. On the hurricane spaghetti model, you will note some variation of that theme, except that a number of the models have the turn around into the Gulf more in the eastern Gulf. Thats the bad news. The good news is that the longer a storm is alive, the more things that can happen to it to weaken it. In this case, Cuba could pose a problem for Ike. Typically, if a big bopper gets ripped up, it rarely returns to its former intensity. Having said all of that, the National Hurricane Center’s track has a minimal influence from Cuba and advertises a very strong hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Day 5. Interests from South Florida to the Gulf states should keep up with this next week. Even South Texas…I mean..what if the hurricane is so far south it sneaks under the trof?

On This Date In History: The United States staged the first submarine attack in history. Well, it was really still the American colonies and it wasn’t a true submarine. It was around midnight in 1776 on September 6 that the British Fleet lay in anchor near Manhattan poised to pounce on General Washington’s beleagured army. Quietly, Sgt. Ezra Lee peddled, with both hands and feet, briskly to turn the propeller of an egg shaped, wooden capsule that was able to float just under the water line using water ballast tanks. The contraption was the brainchild of David Buschnell, who just 4 years before spent his inheritance on an undergraduate degree at Yale. He was, what was then considered, the ripe old age of 30. Buschnell was able to demonstrate that gun powder could be ignited underwater if it were in a close container. So, Lee was to sneak up on the Flag Ship of the British Navy and use a device to screw in a container of gunpowder, ignite it and peddle away as fast as he could. Trouble was, Lee was unable to successfully screw in the charge.

While Buschnell had successfully tested the submarine in the Connecticut River, the currents of the merging East River and Hudson River create a rather turbulent situation when one considers there is the ocean tide tossed in for good measure. It is suspected that Lee was very inexperienced at operating the Turtle and was unable to maintain a stable platform while submerged under the ship. He therefore failed in is two attempts to bore through the hull. He abandoned the mission and released the 130 pound charge after a couple of British rowboats spotted him. While this attempt failed, the whole exercise got the military minds whizzing. It is interesting to note that the Submarine was first conceived as a military weapon, though Jules Verne captured even more imaginative uses with his 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea in the 19th Century.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

THE EYE OF IKE BRIEFLY RE-APPEARED AROUND 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME AN INTERMITTENT WARM SPOT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM JUST PRIOR TO 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT THE EYE HAD A SMALL OPENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT…OTHERWISE THE INNER-CORE REMAINS WELL INTACT. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN T5.5 AND 6.0…AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 100 KT…OR AT THE LOWER END OF THOSE ESTIMATES. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IKE AROUND 0600 UTC…WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF IKE’S STRENGTH. IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 14 KT. IKE IS BEING STEERED IN THAT DIRECTION DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS HAPPENS…IKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE WESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION…AND HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SOUTH AND WESTWARD. IN FACT…MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES HANNA EITHER OVER OR ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH AND WESTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…AND IT IS ALSO A LITTLE FASTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED…THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND SEVERAL OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SOUTHWEST OF THE 4 AND 5 DAY NHC POSITIONS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD SHIFT COULD BE REQUIRED. THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY DISRUPTING THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO ABATE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SINCE IKE…STILL APPEARS TO BE A VERY HEALTHY HURRICANE…LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. BEYOND 36 HOURS…THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT AND THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION. WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK PREDICTION ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA…IT SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING DUE TO LAND. HOWEVER…IKE COULD BE WEAKER THAN SHOWN BELOW IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER CUBA…AND CONVERSELY COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 22.6N 65.6W 100 KT

12HR VT 06/1200Z 22.3N 67.6W 100 KT

24HR VT 07/0000Z 22.0N 70.3W 100 KT

36HR VT 07/1200Z 21.9N 72.8W 105 KT

48HR VT 08/0000Z 21.9N 75.3W 115 KT

72HR VT 09/0000Z 22.9N 79.6W 110 KT

96HR VT 10/0000Z 24.5N 82.5W 110 KT

120HR VT 11/0000Z 26.0N 84.5W 115 KT

$$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

Hurricane Ike, Tropical Storm Hanna-Steady As She Goes September 5, 2008

Hurricane Ike 0905 2115Z

for a more recent update on hurricane Ike, click here

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0905 5pm

There’s really nothing new to report regarding Hurricane Ike or Tropical Storm Hanna. You can find a Tropical Storm Hanna Radar Loop by a simple CLICK HERE. It’s close enough to radar installations to get a good look. Just navigate from the default area of the Ohio Valley to the coast. You can get lightning, clouds and radar all the way to street level so if you have friends in, say Wilmington, you can see what’s happening at their house.

Otherwise, I’m letting the National Hurricane Center Forecast Discussion stand alone this time. Dr. Jack Beven always does a great job. For my take, you can scroll back or Click Here for the previous post.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0905 18Z

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS PERFORMED THE FIRST PENETRATIONS ON IKE AND HAS CONFIRMED THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 109 KT WERE RECORDED…ALONG WITH SFMR WINDS OF 94 KT…PLUS A DROPSONDE SUGGESTED WINDS OF AT LEAST 95 KT. A CONSENSUS OF ALL DATA SOURCES SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 100 KT…SO THIS VALUE WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SOME WEAKENING COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE TOMORROW…AND SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING…PERHAPS RAPID…BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE…SHOWING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH LGEM MODEL EARLY ON…AND IS

Hurricane Ike spaghetti model Intensity Graph 0905 18Z

A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF THEREAFTER. A BIG UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IKE’S POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH CUBA OR FLORIDA…WHICH COULD WEAKEN THE HURRICANE MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW. AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION OF ABOUT 255/13. A GRADUAL BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR SO AS RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF IKE WEAKENS SOMEWHAT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST SOME SORT OF WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA IN A FEW DAYS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WEAKNESS MAY ALLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TURN OF THE HURRICANE. GENERALLY…THE MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING THE NORTHERNMOST TRACKS…SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS…ARE THE ONES WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH FASTER. THE MODELS WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS…SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFDL…SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE. OVERALL…MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH…AND I’M GOING TO CONTINUE TO LEAN THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST…THE FORECAST COULD BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OR WEST LATER TONIGHT. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS…AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 22.9N 64.1W 100 KT

12HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 66.2W 95 KT

24HR VT 06/1800Z 22.2N 68.9W 95 KT

36HR VT 07/0600Z 22.1N 71.3W 100 KT

48HR VT 07/1800Z 22.2N 73.7W 110 KT

72HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 78.2W 115 KT

96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.5N 81.5W 115 KT

120HR VT 10/1800Z 25.5N 83.0W 115 KT

$$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008

500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0905 18Z

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

INDICATE THAT HANNA IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE STEPPED

Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Track 0905 5pm

FREQUENCY MICROWAVE REPORTED TWO AREAS OF WIND OF ABOUT 65 KT. HOWEVER…DROPSONDE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE SFMR ESTIMATES WERE A LITTLE TOO HIGH. THE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 75 KT ABOUT 75 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LAST REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 984 MB…UP A LITTLE FROM THIS MORNING. BASED ON ALL THIS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE METEOROLOGICALLY BETWEEN A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM AND A 65-KT HURRICANE. THE MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT WOBBLY 360/17…WITH A RE-ANALYSIS OF AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTING THIS MOTION BEGAN JUST AFTER THE 11Z AIRCRAFT FIX. HANNA IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERLIES IN 24-36 HR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO…AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AMONGST THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE STILL ISSUES FOR HANNA…AND SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER…THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A CONVECTIVE BURST COULD CAUSE THE STORM TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE GFS AND UKMET CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEPENING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 96 AND 120 HR FORECASTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 30.8N 78.7W 60 KT

12HR VT 06/0600Z 33.2N 78.5W 60 KT

24HR VT 06/1800Z 36.7N 76.8W 50 KT…INLAND

36HR VT 07/0600Z 40.7N 72.4W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT 07/1800Z 44.5N 65.6W 40 KT…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 08/1800Z 50.0N 47.5W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 09/1800Z 51.0N 30.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 10/1800Z 52.5N 14.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Ike Shaping Up Like Tina; Tropical Storm Hanna Fading September 3, 2008

for a more recent update on ike and hanna, Click here

I like Ike….just look at it above…shaping up like Tina!!

For a Gustav Radar Loop or a Tropical Storm Hanna Radar Loop, CLICK HERE

Tropical Storm Hanna NHC Forecast Track 11AM 0903

I’m not going to write too much this time.  Hanna is getting the shoot kicked out

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0903 12Z

of it by shear.  Its starting to drift north and the spaghetti models are getting together in suggesting that it may even stay off shore.  The NHC has shifted its forecast track east but not completely toward the consensus….yet.  The storm is becoming less interesting and less of a threat.  It’s taken so much time in the islands that an upper low has now wandered in to mess it up and the delay also make it so the trof picks it up before it gets to the coast since it stayed on schedule.

Tropical Storm Ike NHC forecast Track 11AM 0903

I still like Ike.  Ike is rounding into shape more like Tina Turner than Ike Turner as I suspect it will at some time become a beautifully formed storm.  Once this upper

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model 0903 12Z

 low that is menacing Hanna moves through, ridging will build in and the course of Ike would shift west, if not slightly south of west.  The official forecast takes it into the Florida Straits.  Still the same question that I had last time which regards the depth of the front coming through here on Tuesday. It’s pretty strong and so if it digs far enough South, then it would pick up Ike and turn it toward the coast.  If Ike keeps up a good pace, then it should get south of the

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0903 12Z

Florida Peninsula before it can get picked up and then turn up toward say the Panhandle.  The the front beats it to the coast, then it would turn up into the peninsula.  BUT…if the trof doesnt dig deep enough leaving Ike farther south, then it would slip underneath and head into the Gulf, threatening the northern Gulf if not the western Gulf.    Some support for this notion lies in the ridge flattening out along the Dixie states with the trof not getting far south and Ike getting sent on its merry way…essentially, the ridge stands between the front and the hurricane.  Lots of time…lots of things can happen. I just outlined three of them.  But I’m tellin’ you…I still like Ike.  I suspect that it will be a hurricane soon and has big bopper potential. Some time I’ll tell you about my sitting by Ike Turner on a flight from Louisville to Houston.

TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

IKE IS WRAPPING UP SOME SOLID CONVECTIVE BANDING AS VIEWED IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY…AND SINCE A PARTIAL OVERPASS SEVERAL HOURS AGO
FROM AMSR-E SUGGESTED A MICROWAVE EYE WAS FORMING…WE MIGHT SEE AN
EYE IN THE VISIBLE BEFORE TOO MUCH LONGER.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS AT 1200 UTC WERE A CONSENSUS 4.0…BUT OBJECTIVE NUMBERS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER…SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT FOR NOW.  IN
ANY CASE…IKE IS ON THE CUSP OF BEING A HURRICANE AND SHOULD BE
ONE LATER TODAY.  THE UNDERLYING OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET
WARMER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK…MAXIMIZING BEYOND 48 HOURS NEAR
29 CELSIUS…WHICH WOULD FAVOR A STRENGTHENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
FIVE-DAY PERIOD.  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…HOWEVER…IKE
MIGHT ENCOUNTER A LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE DOES NOT FORECAST
ANY WEAKENING AS A RESULT…BUT NONE OF THE MODELS FORECAST ROBUST
STRENGTHENING…UNTIL IKE HEADS FARTHER WEST…ESCAPES THE
SHEAR…AND MOVES OVER EVEN WARMER WATERS NEAR THE GREATER
ANTILLES.  STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT DAYS 3-5 IN LINE
WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS…AND IKE COULD REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE FIVE DAYS PASS.

IKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/16 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE
MODELS FORECAST IKE TO BEND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AROUND THAT
RIDGE…BUT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS IT WILL RUN INTO A RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE IKE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY
WESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THAT FEATURE…BUT THEY
DO NOT AGREE ON THE EXACT LATITUDE OR THE SPEED OF THAT WESTWARD
MOTION.  THE CONSENSUS HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE LATE IN THE
FIVE-DAY PERIOD…AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK…BUT
OTHERWISE THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE…EXCEPT FOR
A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/1500Z 20.8N  51.2W    60 KT
12HR VT     04/0000Z 21.7N  53.7W    65 KT
24HR VT     04/1200Z 23.1N  56.8W    70 KT
36HR VT     05/0000Z 23.8N  59.4W    70 KT
48HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N  62.0W    70 KT
72HR VT     06/1200Z 22.5N  67.0W    80 KT
96HR VT     07/1200Z 22.0N  71.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     08/1200Z 22.5N  75.5W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0903 12Z

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME STRUCTURAL CHANGES WITH HANNA TODAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.  THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS COMING OUT OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A MEAN CENTER…AND THE
SYSTEM’S CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CORE.  THE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THAT ENDED AROUND 12Z REPORTED SOME SFMR
WINDS OF UP TO 45 KT ABOUT 70 NM FROM THE CENTER…AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 50 KT.

BECAUSE THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED…THE INTIAL MOTION IS HARD
TO GAUGE.  MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 360/5…AND THIS COULD BE THE START
OF THE EXPECTED NORTHWESTWARD TURN.  THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW OFF THE UPPER U.S. EAST COAST.  MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN WITH A NORTHWESTWARD ACCELERATION WITH A
RECURVATURE AROUND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.  THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO FAST WITH THIS SCENARIO OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS…AND GIVEN THE POOR CORE STRUCTURE OF HANNA I AM INCLINED
TO THINK THAT SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER STEERING MAY BE
A LITTLE OVERDONE…AT LEAST INITIALLY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET IN TERMS OF SPEED…WITH
THE GFS/HWRF/GFDL SHOWING A MORE VERTICAL SYSTEM MOVING MORE
RAPIDLY.  THE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEEN TRENDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PAST FEW CYCLES…AND I HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY IN THAT
DIRECTION.

WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…TO BE REPLACED WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR.  THIS PATTERN WOULD PERMIT SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION…BUT
HANNA WILL NEED TO RECREATE AN INNER CORE IN ORDER TO INTENSIFY
SUBSTANTIALLY.  THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STILL BRINGS HANNA TO
MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST ABOVE
THIS GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/1500Z 20.6N  71.8W    50 KT
12HR VT     04/0000Z 21.5N  72.0W    50 KT
24HR VT     04/1200Z 23.4N  73.3W    55 KT
36HR VT     05/0000Z 25.2N  75.2W    60 KT
48HR VT     05/1200Z 27.3N  77.1W    65 KT
72HR VT     06/1200Z 33.0N  79.0W    70 KT
96HR VT     07/1200Z 42.0N  71.0W    35 KT…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     08/1200Z 47.0N  60.0W    35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Tropical Storm Hanna and Tropical Storm Ike Hope Life is Like George Bush, Not Wilbur Wright September 3, 2008

for a more recent update on Hanna and Ike, CLICK HERE

For access to a Gustav Radar Loop or a Tropical Storm Hanna Radar Loop, CLICK HERE.

Information on Tropical Storm Hanna, Tropical Storm Ike and Tropical Storm Josephine can be found below.

Louisville Weather: Bad news…its going to stay hot and dry. Good news is that the threat of Tropical Storm Hanna becoming a strong, well developed Hurricane has diminished so its track should not allow for any subsidence to speak of to reach the Ohio Valley and so a front on Friday will be able to bring some moisture from Gustav into the area. You won’t have to build an ark and the rain will just by scattered in nature, but something is better than nothing. A better chance for area-wide rain shows up with a strong cold front Tuesday. Temperatures do back off for the weekend with Hanna’s passing and the advance of the front.

Wilbur Not As Lucky As Orville

On This Date in History: On this date in 1908, Orville and Wilbur Wright made their first public demonstration of their airplane. Actually, it wasn’t the same Wright Flyer that made the historic flight in December 1903. They had made a number of improvements over nearly 5 years, but no one really noticed. The day that they made their initial flight, they had invited the press but no one came. Instead, they had been focused on the ill-fated attempt at heavier than air flight by the more celebrated Samuel Pierpont Langley. Following the Wright’s flight at Kitty Hawk, NC the New York Daily Tribune printed a small story with the headline “Dayton Boys Fly Airship.” The newspaper obviously had no clue as to what they had accomplished. After that, the Wrights worked on improving their “airship” but even the farmers weren’t interested. A farmer once watched the Wrights fly a plane near Dayton, Ohio 24 miles in 38 minutes, but he didn’t even stop plowing his field. Well, the brothers on this date in 1908 began a series of demonstrations for the Army at Fort Myer, Virginia and the public was invited. The demonstrations went on for several days and it took but two short weeks for the Wrights to achieve a somewhat infamous aviation record when on September 17, Orville took Lt. Thomas E Selfridge on a ride to demonstrate the potential military value of the airplane. A guy wire broke and got tangled in a propeller and the plane “came down like a bird shot dead in full flight.” Orville shattered his hip and left leg but Selfridge was killed, going in the record book as the first aviation crash and first aviation fatality. So Orville got to make the first flight, was the first to crash, the first to be in a fatal air crash. Meanwhile, poor old Wilbur was the first Wright born on my birthday, the first to get typhoid fever around the time that the Titanic sunk in April 1912 and was the first Wright to die when he succumbed a month later. Talk about bad breaks…

Lt. George H. W. Bush is Rescued

On this date in 1944, a young Lieutenant pilot was recovering on a US submarine after his plane crash. He went to to at least earn the same fame as Orville Wright. Lt. George Bush was but 20 years old when his plane was shot down over the Pacific Ocean by enemy anti-aircraft fire. His two crewmen were killed. One of them was killed in the aircraft while the other bailed out with Bush. But, only Bush’s parachute opened. After paddling around in a life raft for 4 hours, Lt. Bush was picked up by the USS Finback. But the sub had other things to do and Bush spent the next month on board while the Finback continued its mission. Bush spent his time assisting in picking up other downed pilots. For his heroism and actions during numerous sorties (58 missions in 1944 alone) Bush received the Navy’s Distinguished Flying Cross, three Air Medals and a Unit Citation shared with the rest of the crew of the USS Jacinto. He went on to be a Congressman, Ambassador to the UN, CIA Director, Vice-President, President of the United States and only the second former President to have a son also hold the nation’s highest elective office. Imagine all that the nation would have missed had the Finback not been in the area. You never know what one good turn can lead to.

1890 Census Tabulating Machine; Uncle Sam Has Been Nosey Ever Since

One thing we do know that we can count on is government bureaucracy and its been going on since the beginning of our Republic. The Constitution calls for a census to be taken every ten years in order to determine, among other things, the representation in the House of Representatives from each state. The first census of 1790 took 18 months to complete. So, one hundred years later they got smart and decided to get smart and introduced the world’s first punch-card tabulation system. Should happen fast, right? Wrong. See, the boys in the Capitol thought that the new machine gave them Carte-Blanche to not just take basic information, but instead collect all sorts of information. The form consisted of 13,000 pieces of information!!! Talk about an intrusive government….and it’s been getting nosier by the day ever since.

Tropical Storm Hanna NHC Forecast track 11pm 0902

Tropical Storm Hanna. Nothing much has changed since the previous update.

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0903 00Z

For part of the day Tuesday, Hanna was loitering east of the Bahamas and actually drifing Southeast. It spent much of the day getting kicked by upper level shearing and its hanging out in one area didn’t do itself any favors as for water temperatures. But, its still expected to get moving and swing along the Florida coast with a landfall near Savannah Georgia, though this forecast track is on the left edge of the model consensus. It is expected to reach only a cat 1 status. The exact landfall will be difficult to pinpoint given the geography of the coastline but at this time it appears that it will mainly be a story of beach erosion and rain issues.

Tropical Storm Ike NHC Forecast Track 0902 11PM

Tropical Storm Ike: Tropical Storm Ike still looks like a potential trouble maker

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model 0903 00Z

on down the road. The spaghetti model indicates that the greatest clustering of tracks takes it westward through Bahamas and across Cuba into the Gulf. Indications are that it will intensify into a formidable storm before crossing Cuba. What happens after that remains to be seen how it handles the mountains of Cuba and atmospherice conditions thereafter. Both the GFS and CMC models keep it south of Florida. The ECMWF has a different solution. It takes it through the Bahamas and then tends to move it slightly north of west toward the southern tip of Florida by Tuesday. This is perhaps in response to a strong cold front moving through the Ohio Valley at that time. It may be day or so soon with turning the storm in response to the trof but it raises an interesting question regarding the front. If it digs far South, then the front would pick up Ike and turn it toward the US. If Ike is able to sneak below the trof, then it would open the door for a storm going deeper into the Gulf of Mexico. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out…but I still think Ike is going to be a trouble maker.

Tropical Storm Josephine is still a long way out with many scenarios and with many miles and days before it becomes an issue with which I care to concern myself. So you shouldn’t worry about it either.

Gustav Rains While Tropical Storm Hanna Dawdles and Tropical Storm Ike Churns Along September 2, 2008

Gustav Weakened But Still Cost Billions

Hurricane Gustav Damage Estimates Lowered-LINK TO STORY

For a Gustav Radar Loop or a Tropical Storm Hanna Radar Loop, CLICK HERE

for a more recent update on Tropical Storm Hanna and Tropical Storm Ike CLICK HERE

0902 5 Day Forecast Rainfall (QPF) Thru Sun AM

Tropical Depression Gustav is lurking in NE Texas and will continue to lumber along and probably get ripped apart and stretch into the plains. The moisture will be try to get to the Ohio Valley but activity will be suppressed, in spite of a frontal zone in the area. So far, rain fall totals from radar estimates have been in the 5-10 inch range in Louisiana but rain should continue for the next couple of days. Because Gustav has been moving, the catastrophic rain amounts for this week may not come to fruition.

Tropical Storm Hanna NHC Forecast Track 0902 5PM

Tropical Storm Hanna is just hanging around in the islands. It’s even been drifing SE! It is expected to get caught up in a trof and begin a northwestward motion and

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0902 18Z

approach Florida. Then it would swing more NNW and the point of landfall will be rather difficult given the approach is at such a small angle relative to the coast. If you’ve been following along, the track has gone from Savannah to Wilimington to the middle of SC, back to Savannah and now back to north of Savannah. Changes of just a few miles of the track as it swings around can alter the landfall point by many miles. If you recall a similar situation with

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0902 18Z

Hurricane Charlie several years ago when it went up the western coast of Florida. It was forecast to go in near Tampa but went in well north of Fort Myers. The media went nuts but the landfall was in the broad forecast place (the cone) and was in the hurricane warning area. It’s for that reason that the NHC reiterates not to focus on the specific spot of the landfall. In the case of Hanna, it will be important to remember that as the geography will make it very difficult. Hanna is not forecast to become much more than a minimal hurricane and the spaghetti intensity models are not enthused about making it much more than a tropical storm. At this point, with the environmental conditions as they are, it appears this will be mainly remembered as a rain maker, hopefully some of that will get to eastern Tennessee that needs the rain badly. The 5 pm National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion is below.

Tropical Storm Ike NHC Forecast Track 5PM

I still think that Tropical Storm Ike is a potential troublemaker. A ridge expands and builds in taking Ike almost due west after it initially moves WNW prior to the

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0902 18Z

expansion of the ridge. One of the models on the Spaghetti Intensity Graph rapidly take this to nearly a cat 5. The boys at the National Hurricane Center are discounting this model….though they did mention it in the discussion, which raises my eyebrow a bit. Nevertheless, conditions are decent for development and if the ridge does what it is supposed to do, then Ike would get driven toward Cuba and, presumably, into the Gulf. There are a lot of

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model 0902 18Z

things than can happen to mess Ike up but nothing really jumps out at me. It would run over the upwelled water of Hanna’s dawdling in the Bahamas. But, I suspect that the depth of the water is relatively deep so the upwelled water may not be that cold and Ike may be running fast enough that it won’t affect it too much. If it gets there, there are also the mountains of Cuba and perhaps Hispaniola. So, Ike had some hurdles ahead…but I still think he may be a trouble maker. We’ll see. The National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Ike Discussion is at the bottom.

Tropical Storm Josephine NHC Forecast Track 5 pm 0902

I’m blowing off Josephine for now because its so far away. But, it may end up getting into the ridge that is steering Ike and after getting drawn northwest by a trof in the Atlantic, start moving more westward.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING HANNA
CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
AT 850 MB WAS 66 KT WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE
SURFACE. HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR FOR ANOTHER
12-24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. BY
TOMORROW…GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CUT OFF
JUST WEST OF HANNA AND THEN DROP SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. IF THIS EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES…AND ASSUMING HANNA IS ABLE
TO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR…THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR HANNA TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO…IN
LINE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS.
HOWEVER…THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO IS COMPLEX…WHICH RESULTS IN LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT HANNA CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 150/02. TRACK
MODELS INSIST THAT HANNA WILL START ITS MUCH-ANTICIPATED TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST SOON…AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC LIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
BACK IN. SUCH A TRACK WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
HANNA IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT MAKES ITS APPROACH TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER…UNTIL HANNA BEGINS A
MORE DEFINITIVE MOTION…IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE
POTENTIAL IMPACT AREA. IN ADDITION…THE ANTICIPATED ANGLE OF
APPROACH TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST MEANS THAN ONLY A
SMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS IN BOTH TIME AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL. IN FACT…THE
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE
SHOWS THAT THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE ABOUT EQUAL AT
EACH SPECIFIC LOCATION ALONG THE COAST FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 20.4N 72.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 20.9N 73.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 22.2N 74.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 23.5N 75.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 25.4N 77.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 30.5N 80.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 38.0N 78.0W 30 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 07/1800Z 47.0N 66.0W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

AFTER LOOKING CONVECTIVELY ASYMMETRIC THIS MORNING…IKE HAS
WRAPPED A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER
EXCEPT FOR SMALL BREAK OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. CONSEQUENTLY…
DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE.

IKE CONTINUES TO CHUG ALONG WITHIN THE TRADES AT 280/15. THE
MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IKE…STEERING
IT WESTWARD…IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC AND
RESULT IN VERY LITTLE POLEWARD MOTION IN THE COMING DAYS. ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 5…THE
MOST NOTABLE CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING IS THE TRACK OF THE UKMET…
WHICH CURVES IKE TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 65W IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER
WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE UKMET AND
FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS…SHOWING A SLIGHT
SOUTH-OF-DUE-WEST MOTION IN ABOUT 48-72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE EXACT STEERING REGIME AT DAY 5 REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN…
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RECONCILES THIS BY SHOWING A MORE OR LESS
WESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGREEABLE IN THE SHORT-TERM…
BRINGING IKE TO A HURRICANE WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS. BEYOND
THAT…THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE A BIT RESERVED AND SHOW
PEAK INTENSITIES OF 70-80 KT BEFORE MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SETS
IN BY 48 HOURS. THE HWRF MODEL IS WELL ABOVE ALL THE OTHER GUIDANCE
AND IN GENERAL ITS SOLUTION IS NOT COUNTED AT THIS TIME.
STILL…THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE REASON THAT INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD NOT OCCUR SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM…BUT IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AND NEAR THE GFDL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 19.2N 46.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 19.6N 48.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 20.3N 51.8W 70 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 21.0N 55.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 21.6N 57.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 22.0N 63.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 21.5N 69.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 75.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/KNABB

Tropical Storm Hanna, Josephine and Ike: Better Friends Than Bill and Warren September 2, 2008

For a radar loop of the Tropical Depression Gustav or a Tropical Storm Hanna radar loop, CLICK HERE and navigate to your desired location, all the way to street level. Click “animate” to loop.

Tropical Storm Hanna NHC Forecast Track 11AM

Late Tuesday morning three tropical storms are roaming the Atlantic.  Tropical

Tropical Storm Ike NHC Forecast Track 11AM 0902

Storm Hanna has stayed too long at the fair.  The idea was supposed to be that Hanna would start moving Northwest and then swing up into the SE coast. But, Hanna stayed over the same area for too long over the same area, producing some upwelling of colder water.  More importantly, there is a shear from the north that is ripping it up and it has been downgraded to Tropical Storm status.  The Intensity Probability Table indicates not only a 50-50 chance  of it being a hurricane, the odds also suggest that it will only regain

Tropical Storm Hanna Intensity Probability Table 0902 11AM

itself back to cat 1 status if it does so.  The angle of attack will make a for a very difficult landfall prediction.  The track was shifted just slightly back to the west and that resulted in a shift of the landfall forecast back to  just north of Savannah into South Carolina.  The spaghetti model consensus though is south of Savannah.

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0902 12Z

I still am of the early opinion….at this point its more of a guess or “feeling” that

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model 0902 12Z

Tropical Storm Ike will be a trouble maker.  It is forecast to increase in strength and the track will be around a ridge that is forecast to drive it west.  Tropical Storm Ike is a long way off and therefore there are many things that can happen atmospherically.  Even farther out is Tropical Storm Josephine.  It virtually has the entire Atlantic Ocean to travel over.  Regarding Ike and Josephine, while the time factor does open the door for a changing environment and steering pattern, climatologically, this time of year the region in which they formed has been a favored area for some of the most significant landfalling US tropical cyclones.  So these guys should not be blown off.  The National Hurricane Center Discussion for Tropical Storm Hanna and the Tropical Storm Ike Discussion can be found at the bottom.

Louisville Weather:  The troubles of Hanna are actually a potential benefit to our area as well. Because Hanna is forecast to be less formidable, then the chances of our getting subsidence (sinking air) or even has much advection of dry air from the northeast as a front approaches. Therefore, the prospects of our getting some rain from Gustav drawn up along the front is much better.  As of noon today, we are forecasting perhaps some isolated stuff on Wed and Thursday and more scattered activity on Friday.  Short-wave ridging on Thursday may hamper storms but the chance is there. We need the rain: My hydrandia needs it.  I’m tired of watering at midnight.

Victim Of Conspiracy?

  On This Date in History: President Warren G. Harding died in San Francisco in 1923. Officially he died of a heart attack but speculation is that he may have been murdered. However, all subsequent investigations have determined that he was not poisoned, as conspiracy theorists suggest. Why would there be a conspiracy? Well, Harding had allowed his Secretary of the Interior to take over from the Navy Department the Teapot Dome oil reserve in Wyoming. The Secretary then allowed for two oilmen to develop the oil field there and another in California. Murmuring began as the Secretary suddenly upgraded his lifestyle. Turns out he had received $400,000 in “gifts” from the two oilmen. The Teapot Dome Scandal was the first huge Federal Government corruption scandal in the 20th century if not in all US history. Many more have followed. When told that his friends may be enriching themselves at the Federal Trough, Harding is said to have exclaimed, “My…friends…they’re the ones that keep me walking the floors nights!” Herbert Hoover urged Harding to publicly expose the scandal but Harding did not in fear of the public uproar. Harding avoided the whole mess and possible impeachment by conveniently dying before the Teapot Dome Scandal really bubbled to the surface.

Bill Sat In the Wrong Chair

In 1876, Wild Bill Hickok was shot and killed in Deadwood, South Dakota. It wasn’t in a gunfight though. Hickok was playing cards in Saloon Number 10 with his back to the door. A tinhorn gunman named Jack McCall came in an shot Wild Bill in the back of the head. Legend is that Hickok was holding a pair of black aces and black 8′s. That is now commonly known as the “dead man’s hand” though most of the time the suit is not noted and just aces and eights will suffice for the moniker. Two things have eluded me: One is how does someone named James Butler become “Wild Bill?” The other is why he had his back to the door. Hickok had a storied life as a gunfighter and his reputation made him a target for those wanting to make a name for themselves. So, he typically sat with his back to the wall. I guess on August 2, 1876 he thought he was among friends.

Seems Wild Bill and Warren G. needed to be more careful about their friends.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

HANNA HAS FINALLY SUCCUMBED TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND A SHRINKING CDO FEATURE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 60 KT…BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION…THIS
MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE HANNA THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY
ESTIMATE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP EDGE OR DEFORMATION
AXIS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRRUS CANOPY SUGGESTING THAT THE
SHEAR WILL PERSIST IN THE SHORT-TERM…AND SOME ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  IN ABOUT 24
HOURS…GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHEAR WEAKENING AND THIS COULD ALLOW
HANNA TO RESTRENGTHEN.  HOWEVER…GIVEN THE PRESENT LACK OF
ORGANIZATION…IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW MUCH STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BUT SHOWS HANNA BECOMING A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN ABOUT
36 HOURS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.  IN FACT…IF ONE CONSULTS THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY
PRODUCT INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE…IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THERE IS
NEARLY AN EQUAL PROBABILITY OF HANNA BEING A TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE AT DAY 3.

HANNA CONTINUES TO MEANDER BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF AN INITIAL
MOTION IS 250/05. SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT
HANNA SHOULD START MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. HANNA SHOULD ACCELERATE
NORTHWESTWARD AT DAYS 2 TO 3 AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. DYNAMICAL
TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…HANNA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA… GEORGIA…OR SOUTH CAROLINA
IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THE EXPECTED ANGLE OF
APPROACH AND TRACK UNCERTAINTY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO NARROW DOWN
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT AREA. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AND ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/1500Z 21.0N  73.5W    60 KT
12HR VT     03/0000Z 21.4N  73.7W    55 KT
24HR VT     03/1200Z 22.3N  74.2W    60 KT
36HR VT     04/0000Z 23.6N  75.3W    65 KT
48HR VT     04/1200Z 25.1N  76.8W    70 KT
72HR VT     05/1200Z 29.5N  80.5W    75 KT
96HR VT     06/1200Z 36.5N  80.0W    35 KT…INLAND
120HR VT     07/1200Z 45.5N  70.0W    25 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IKE HAS A COMPACT AND
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
PRIMARILY BEEN LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 0847 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED THAT THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
HAS EXPANDED A BIT…AND A FEW 50-55 KT BARBS WERE LOCATED WITHIN
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SINCE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB…THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED CONSERVATIVELY TO 50 KT.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF
IKE. MOST MODELS…EXCEPT FOR THE GFDN…ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
WITHIN THE FIRST 48 HOURS THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY DIVERGE BEYOND THAT TO
DAY 5. IN FACT…WITH A LATITUDINAL SPREAD OF ONLY 5 DEGREES AT DAY
5…WE COULDN’T HAVE ASKED FOR BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE.
THE STORM HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED WITH AN AVERAGE MOTION OF
280/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS IKE IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT WILL MOVE WEST IN TANDEM
WITH THE CYCLONE. SOME OF THE MODELS… PARTICULARLY THE GFDL AND
HWRF…SHOW A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD BEND AND BRING IKE VERY CLOSE TO OR
OVER HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER…BOTH OF THESE MODELS BRING IKE TO A
MAJOR HURRICANE…AND SINCE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DOES
NOT CALL FOR SUCH STRENGTHENING…I PREFER TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS.

THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES THAT RELATIVELY DRY
AIR ALMOST COMPLETELY SURROUNDS IKE. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM…IT IS PROBABLY MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DRY AIR AND WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN SO UNTIL IT CAN DEVELOP JUST ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION
TO ISOLATE ITSELF. THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE SYSTEM IN 48 HOURS.
THE GFDL AND HWRF APPARENTLY IGNORE SUCH SHEAR AND FORECAST IKE TO
BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS. WHILE THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
A POSSIBILITY…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/1500Z 18.9N  45.0W    50 KT
12HR VT     03/0000Z 19.3N  47.3W    55 KT
24HR VT     03/1200Z 19.9N  50.3W    60 KT
36HR VT     04/0000Z 20.5N  53.5W    70 KT
48HR VT     04/1200Z 21.0N  56.5W    75 KT
72HR VT     05/1200Z 21.5N  62.5W    80 KT
96HR VT     06/1200Z 21.5N  68.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     07/1200Z 21.5N  74.0W    90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/KNABB

Hurricane Gustav Making Landfall and Slowing Down; Two More Storms September 1, 2008

for a more recent update on Hurricane Gustav, Hurricane Hanna and Tropical Storm Ike, CLICK HERE

For a Radar Loop to track Hurricane Gustav, CLICK HERE. You can navigate anywhere in the country to street level. The image can be looped with clouds and lightning added.

Hurricane Gustav NHC forecast Track 11AM 0901

Hurricane Gustav made landfall about 70 miles SW of New Orleans and 100 miles SE of Lafayette. Pretty close to Houma. The structure got fairly decent and the

Hurricane Gustav Spaghetti Model 0901 12Z

pressure was at a level that could have supported higher winds, but the satellite photo indicates to me that the dry air that the hurricane hunter reported last night has worked into the center. So, while the pressure was still at 955 mb, the winds fell just prior to landfall to 110 mph and is moving NW at 15 mph. If you want to play the category game, it was a Cat 2 at landfall….if it had stayed 5 mph stronger, it would have been a Cat 3. I sometimes think this “what category is it?” stuff is silly. Anyway, it still remains to be seen how the water piling up into Lake Borgne will affect the Intercoastal Waterway and Industrial Canal. However, cautiously it would appear the distance from New Orleans and the lesser strength was sufficient to keep the storm surge rather manageable in New Orleans. But, they thought that about Katrina too. The reporters were in the French Quarter saying that “we dodged a bullet” when the east side of town had been under water for 6 hours. I suspect that the levees will be under pressure and perhaps even topped to some degree but probably not to the degree of Katrina. On Sunday evening, it was interesting that while the central winds were not that great, the hurricane force winds were somewhat broad and that seems to be holding true with winds in MIssissippi running close to hurricane force. There may be a lot of tornados with this one, but one cannot really tell for certain.

Gustav Rain Forecast 120 hours

The boys at the National Hurricane Center have done a great job as the track went almost exactly as forecast for several days. Despite the variables, the track is pretty much running up the eastern side of Vermilion Bay toward Fort Polk. It is still anticipated to slow to a crawl in west Louisiana. Rainfall will be excessive. The main difference between this and Fay is that the upper support is anticipated to be chopped off in the next few days. That probably won’t limit the rainfall, but should limit the winds a bit and also prevent the storm from being as long lived as Fay.

Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Track 11AM 0901

Tropical Storm Hanna is getting better organized. It is expected to approach

Tropical Depression 9 Forecast Track 0901 11AM

minimal hurricane status and loop through the Bahamas, along the east coast of Florida and into Georgia or South Carolina and then up the east coast. However, the most recent path of toward the SW is rather interesting and is not part of the plan and looks similar to the track from a few days ago when the data supported a run down and around into the Gulf. Stay tuned. A tropical Depression has also formed and and is expected to increase in intensity. There are also other areas of interest in the Atlantic. Here is the National Hurricane Center Gustav Discussion for 11AM Monday:

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR
COCODRIE ABOUT 1430 UTC.  DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE
BECAME BETTER DEFINED ON RADAR.  HOWEVER...WIND DATA FROM AIR FORCE
RESERVE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT ALONG WITH DOPPLER RADAR WINDS SUGGESTS
THAT GUSTAV WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...AND
THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/13.  GUSTAV IS BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD
BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION...SO THE 72-120 HR PART
OF THE TRACK IS CHANGED FROM A WESTWARD DRIFT TO A NORTHWARD DRIFT.

GUSTAV SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND...ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING
WILL LIKELY BE SLOW AT FIRST AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE SOUTH
LOUISIANA MARSHES.  A FASTER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN 6-12 HR AS
THE CENTER REACHES MORE SOLID GROUND.  AFTER 48 HR...GUSTAV IS
LIKELY TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF THE CYCLONE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND LEAVING THE SURFACE CENTER BEHIND.
THUS...THE FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 72
HR.

THE THREAT OF HIGH STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/1500Z 29.2N  90.8W    95 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 30.3N  92.4W    70 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 31.3N  93.8W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 31.9N  94.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 32.4N  95.3W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 33.0N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 33.5N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     06/1200Z 34.0N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Gustav and Landslide Lyndon August 29, 2008

for a more recent update on tropical storm, soon to be hurricane Gustav, CLICK HERE

Louisville Weather: The forecast holds. A front coming through on Friday may kick off a few showers or errant t’storms but nothing substantial areawide. Bad news cause we need the rain. But, it will leave us with a spectacular Labor Day weekend with tons of sun and warm afternoons and relatively mild nights.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Gustav 11pm Forecast Track 0828

Tropical Storm Gustav: The forecast generally holds with this cat. Tropical Storm Gustav is holding together pretty well as it moves across Jamaica. In fact its satellite

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0829 00Z

image looks really impressive. It will emerge over the open water and probably strengthen rather rapidly. I still think that this guy has a chance to explode after it moves away from Jamaica. The forecast track is farther west than it has been with it going inland in western part of Vermillion Bay in Louisiana and then to Lake Charles. This is fairly close to the spaghetti model consensus except there is a bit of a difference. Several models become more muddled at the end of the track and move the storm west as it approaches the coast. The intensity graph also reflects a general consensus in the cat 2 or cat 3 range. The track is reflective of the notion that a ridge of high pressure moves across the

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0829 00Z

southern part of the US and slows the forward track then keeps moving east, picks up the storm and resumes its course northwest. What the outlying models seem to be wanting to do is to have that ridge hang tough in the south US and drive the storm west along the coast. What the ridge does I think will end up being a key to the fate of Gustav. There is also a trof in the Gulf. That will be what breaks down the ridge that is currently steering Gustav and allows for its turn northwest. That trof should help increase a southwesterly shear and the models seem to agree that will inhibit the storm. They key, I think, as to whether or not Gustav becomes excessively strong will be if the southwesterly shear materializes and, if so, how much. If the trof is weak enough…or retreats west as many models suggest…it may not have the storm move to the northwest to the extent that the official forecast calls. Texas should still not write this guy off…there are a couple of real scenarios that I can draw that would move the target farther west.

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0829 00Z

Tropical Storm Hanna: This storm is rather interesting because, until now, there was a general consensus of the storm moving northwest and then swinging out to sea. Earlier data supported the idea that a ridge builds in the Atlantic and

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0829 00Z

blocks it, leaving it hung out to dry. The latest spaghetti tracks now even have it moving Southwest toward the Islands. I suppose that might be the ridge that is supposed to move across the southern US blocking and then driving Gustav, emerging offshore to shove Hanna southwest. Either way, I may have to reverse course a bit and say that this guy may be worth paying attention to after all. The forecast is so muddled that there are numerous scenarios. But I will continue to focus on Gustav until Hanna proves its meddle.

On a side note…yes oil prices rose then fell. Why? (story) Well, the dollar went up and, in my view, the weak dollar is probably the biggest reason for the rise in oil prices. Lately, the dollar has risen and oil prices have fallen. Today there a report came out that the economy expanded by some 3.6% which hardly is evidence of a recession. Anyway, I saw a trader on CNBC today who commented that the rigs were very strong and he thought that the markets would recognize the resiliency of the offshore industry. We’ll see. But so far, it seems the fate of the dollar is more important to the price of oil today than Gustav. We’ll see if that holds…let’s hope the Uncle Sam is stronger than Gustav. The 11pm National Hurricane Center 11pm Discussion for Gustav is at the bottom of this post.

LBJ Listened to His Constituents

On This Date In History: On this date in 1948 Lyndon Baines Johnson, who grew up on the Perdanales River in the Texas Hill Country, was basking in the glow of victory. Johnson had forever gained the moniker “Landslide Lyndon.” The night before the young representative had secured the nomination from his party as the

When LBJ Spoke, Sometimes Others Were Forced to Listen

candidate for the United States senate from Texas. His margin of victory? 87 votes. State politics was pretty wild in the Lone Star State at that time and this case it was no different. After the polls closed a “block of votes” just happened to turn up in Duval County. In Jim Wells County, which often had such a high turnout there were more votes cast than eligible voters, the voting totals kept changing. Each side charged corruption. An investigation was held, then halted when the voting lists in Jim Wells county were either “lost” or “stolen.” The ballots on Duval County were burned by the courthouse janitor. And so, Lyndon Baines Johnson was on his way to the United States Senate and later to the White House as the 36th President of the United States.

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

THE CENTER OF GUSTAV HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
JAMAICA DURING THE EVENING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE KINGSTON
AREA SHOWED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE…AND THE LOWEST OBSERVED
PRESSURE WAS 990 MB. GUSTAV IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF COLD
CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER…WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/6…AFTER A SOUTH OF
WEST MOTION FOR A FEW HOURS. GUSTAV IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECASTS GUSTAV TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR…THEN CONTINUE IN
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 96 HR. THE GUIDANCE IS
RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER 96
HR…THERE IS SOME SPREAD…AS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
WHETHER A RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF GUSTAV. THE
GFDL MOVES THE STORM QUICKLY INLAND…WHILE THE LATEST GFS RUN
SHOWS IT SLOWING DOWN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE NOGAPS CALLS
FOR A LEFT TURN AFTER 96 HR TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THAT IS DOWN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 72 HR….WITH RELIABLE MODEL FORECASTS
REMAINING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TRACK. SINCE TRACK FORECASTS ARE
ALWAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS AT 3-5 DAYS…IT IS SIMPLY
IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV
WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. GUSTAV IS SHOWING GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS AT THIS TIME…BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS…WHICH WOULD
ALLOW SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO
RETREAT WESTWARD AS GUSTAV APPROACHES…WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. HOWEVER…THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
HOW MUCH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE…WITH THE UKMET IN PARTICULAR
SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHEAR AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99
KT…THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT…THE GFDL 111 KT…AND THE HWRF 137 KT.
THE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL. HOWEVER…IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 17.8N 77.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 18.3N 78.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 19.1N 80.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 20.4N 82.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 21.9N 84.2W 100 KT…NEAR COAST OF CUBA
72HR VT 01/0000Z 25.5N 87.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 28.5N 90.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 30.0N 92.5W 90 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Gustav Getting More Robust, Now Has a Mate; Fill Up Your Gas Tanks! August 28, 2008

for a more recent update on tropical storm gustav, CLICK HERE

NHC Tropical Storm Gustav Forecast Track 0828 11AM

Tropical Storm Gustav, as expected, is getting its act together and is looking much much better on the satellite. Once it decided to end its Haitian vacation and got out of the mountains of Haiti and back over the friendly confines of the ocean, its numbers are going up while the pressure is going down. Actually, it works in reverse. The pressure is down to 983mb and the winds are up to 70 mph. Anyway, the vector shift overnight to a more southerly component has made it likely that it will encounter Jamaica as it starts to swing more westerly. That will further delay intensification but, after that, it will have little problem getting going good. Now, because it dawdled near Haiti, it has provided more time for a more hostile environment to mess it up a little

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0828 12Z

in the Gulf. In response to a trof coming into the Gulf in a few days, the ridge steering the storm should break down a bit causing the storm to turn to the northwest. Should that trof actually show up as forecast, then it would increase the likelihood of southwesterly shear aloft to mess with

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0828 12Z

its hat…its upper anticyclone…its upper support. The upper support is what is necessary for a tropical cyclone of any substance. While most of the models on the Spaghetti Intensity Graph do make this a cat 2 or Cat 3 storm, a few still want to ignore the shearing and take it stronger. But, the good news is that, should this shearing, it may limit the storm from getting too strong. However, I do wonder if this guy isn’t just going to explode once it enters the Gulf prior to it getting into a shearing environment. The sea surface temperatures are very warm, it may run across a warm eddy and the environment will be great for a while. The bad news is that, right now, the official forecast has shifted a bit west of New Orleans over the past 12 hours, but not far enough away to prevent the sunken city to be susceptible to a bad storm surge. As seen in the discussion below, there is talk of a

Sea-Surface Temperatures 0828

ridge building ahead of the storm that would slow it down. The boys at the NHC feel that this feature will continue to move and serve to merely slow the progress north and as it goes on its merry way, Gustav will be allowed to enter the United States. Someone should alert the border patrol as I doubt if Gustav is a documented worker. There continues to be many variables like if or when the shearing takes place and how strong it will be as well as when the steering ridge breaks down. Now there is a further concern as to if, in fact, the blocking ridge does materialize and if it does in fact keep moving. The discussion mentions some models that keep that ridge in place and consequently the storm starts to go west prior to the forecast and I’ve seen several of those models. For this reason, if you are anywhere from Pensacola to Corpus Christi, i’d still keep my ears on. There are several days left in Gustav’s life and typically, one of the variables do not behave as expected.

Gustav has a wife now. It’s Tropical Storm Hanna. I’ve seen this feature consistently on the models we use in forecasting locally. A tropical storm or hurricane has been showing up off the Southeast Coast of the United States. The computers thinking all along has

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0828 12Z

been for oit to get close and then move out to sea and that’s why I haven’t really mentioned it much….I believe this is Invest 95L. Anyway, the official forecast track at this time is being cautious as there are some models that want to stop Hanna’s progress and have it get cut off from steering currents. I suspect that even if it does that, it would eventually get

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0828 12Z

caught up in a frontal boundary moving off the US coast. The concern here would be that if the storm is far enough south, it stays below the trof of the front and does not get caught up in a southwesterly flow out to sea so its worth monitoring.

Oh…one other thing….I think I told you people to fill up your gas tanks because oil prices would go up because of Gustav. The oil traders have the same access to modeling data and they know that there is a possibility of a storm going into the region of US offshore oil production, not to mention the huge oil refining capacity around Houston and numerous refineries from the SE Texas coast to New Orleans. So any hint of a hurricane sniffing around will cause the price of oil to be bid higher. This really started on Monday but here’s today’s story. Better Fill’er Up!

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008 THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT ABOUT 1130 UTC SHOWED THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAD BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE EARLIER THIS MORNING. MY SENSE FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY SINCE THEN IS THAT GUSTAV HAS STARTED MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD…PERHAPS 265/4. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE CENTER WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER JAMAICA OR WILL HUG THE SOUTH OR NORTH COAST…BUT WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA…ALL MODELS FORECAST GUSTAV TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FOLLOWING FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ALSO FORECAST A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME…BUT SUFFICIENTLY PROGRESSIVE SUCH THAT IT WOULD NOT BLOCK GUSTAV’S NORTHWARD PROGRESS. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA…AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT THE HIGH TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD FORCE GUSTAV TO TURN A LITTLE BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF…BUT THESE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MINORITY. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES SHOW A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST TO BE IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS. RELIABLE MODELS REMAIN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FORECAST TRACK…SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT OFFICIAL TRACK. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA…AND ANOTHER AIR FORCE PLANE WILL ARRIVE ON THE SCENE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO REORGANIZE…BUT THE INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO MIGHT LIMIT INTENSIFICATION…ALTHOUGH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH COULD MAKE GUSTAV A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME TODAY. AFTER PASSING JAMAICA…GUSTAV WILL ENCOUNTER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT…FAVORING INTENSIFICATION. ANY INTERACTION WITH THE NARROW LANDMASS OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE STRENGTH OF GUSTAV OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO…WHERE WATERS WILL BE WARM BUT WIND SHEAR COULD SLOWLY INCREASE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE FASTER STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…BUT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 17.9N 76.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 17.9N 77.1W 65 KT…NEAR JAMAICA 24HR VT 29/1200Z 18.4N 79.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 19.1N 80.8W 80 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 20.2N 82.6W 95 KT 72HR VT 31/1200Z 23.5N 86.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 01/1200Z 27.0N 89.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 02/1200Z 29.5N 91.0W 100 KT…NEAR COAST OF LA $$ FORECASTER KNABB