for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike and Hanna, Click Here
I’m sitting here flipping through the channels and see one cable network continually saying “the east coast is facing a triple threat!”. They say people are “bracing” for Hanna, that Ike is “threatening” and Josephine is coming along like “an angry cousin.” Hrmph. this type of hyperbole is dangerous because it creates the “boy who cried wolf” situation. When it really is serious, as may be the case in a week with Ike, then some people may not listen.
For a Tropical Storm Hanna Radar Loop, CLICK HERE navigate wherever you like, even to street level. Hit “animate” to loop.
First, we’ll chat a bit about Tropical Storm Hanna and then we’ll get to Hurricane Ike and how it relates to former NFL star Ike Harris. Hanna is a tropical storm that
perhaps has questionable tropical cyclone characteristics but certainly has winds that may be gusting in some quadrants to hurricane force. And, I have to admit that the satellite imagery is looking pretty good all of a sudden. The winds may in fact get to hurricane force but the general effect of the storm will be some coastal tidal flooding and some storms that would have the potential for tornadoes. Okay…winds of 65-75 mph can be an issue but in this case, those
type of winds will be more of the exception than the rule as the storm is not fully formed. Yes, you hear on TV that its “getting organized” but its got a long way to go to be truly fearsome in that regard and not much ocean to work with. The rainfall flood potential will be limited by its increasing forward speed as it is forecast to be in North Carolina for Saturday morning and 24 hours later be near the Kennedy Compound in Massachusetts. I heard a tv foof just say that “it looks like a washout on the east coast this entire weekend.” Nonsense. But, as the storm zips by, it would not be wise to dismiss it. These guys interacting along the coast seem to enhance the possibility of tornadoes, that can hit and leave very quickly and with little warning. The National Hurricane Center Forecast Discussion for Tropical Storm Hanna is at the bottom.
Hurricane Ike: So far, I have found a way to compare Hurricane Ike to Tina Turner and Ike Clanton. Now, I’ve come up with Ike Harris. Harris was a pro-football player of note with the Cardinals and Saints. He had over 3300 yards receiving and 16 touchdowns. So, what does that have to do with Hurricane Ike aside from their names? Well, being a professional athlete for several years is a pretty high accomplishment. A hurricane reaching Cat 4 status in a short period of time is pretty
impressive as well. Once Ike Harris’ athletic career ending, he used the education he received at Iowa State and as the door of one chapter of his life ended, a new one opened and today, Ike Harris is a respected and successful member of the business community. He was named as one of the top 75 most powerful African-Americans in corporate America. Please read this press release. So often we hear about athletes who don’t do so well when their career is over. We need to hear more about people like Mr. Harris who has no doubt positively influenced numerous lives and probably could do more if the word got out. I just did my part.
Okay..so how does Ike Harris’ story compare to the tale of Hurricane Ike. Well, the
first part of Ike’s career is just about done. It was a very strong hurricane but has been chopped a bit by strong northeasterly shear. It has gotten weaker. This often spells the end of tropical cyclones. But, Hurricane Ike will probably begin anew and grow in intensity and most likely, become a geographically larger storm. It’s pretty small now but I’ve observed over the years that small storms don’t usually stay small for long. Hurricane Camille was a small storm with 200 mph winds when it hit Mississippi in 1969, but it had only
been a hurricane for less than 3 days. Ike is moving west, a big fat ridge is building. That building in ridge is part of the reason why Hanna will kicked shot out like a cannon to the northeast because the ridge is building Soutwest behind it
toward Florida. That ridge will drive the storm southwest toward the Bahamas.
I think I’ve been suggesting that it wasn’t a good idea to totally write off a Gulf of Mexico scenario and at that point, the issue remains iffy but seems to have a bit more clarity. We in Louisville were looking at a strong front coming down early in the week and bringing decidedly cooler air. We have shoved that back to the end of the week because indications are that forces upstream will not allow the cool air to move in so quickly. The big push South, in other words, is being held up. Because the trof associated with the front is going to be delayed, then the erosion of the ridge building into Florida could be delayed. More and more models are going along with that scenario with many returning to an old story of several days ago that wants to take the storm either South of Florida, possibly through Cuba, or across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The number of models suggesting a turn prior to the Florida Peninsula has decreased markedly. The official forecast has shifted west, hooking around the southern tip of Florida.
Bottom line: Strong hurricane moving to the Bahamas. Threat to Florida great. Threat to East Coast falling. Threat to Gulf States increasing. Forecast track after 84 hours, very much in flux. Note the last line in the NHC discussion.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO A TAKE A TOLL ON IKE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS CLEAR AND THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION…A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS OPEN ON THE NORTH SIDE. USING A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 105 KT…AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON TO OBTAIN A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND WIND RADII. ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DECREASING SHEAR OVER IKE IN ABOUT A DAY DUE TO A WEAKENING OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY UPPER WINDS. EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH OF SSTS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS…WATERS ARE VERY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST PATH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE DUE TO THE SHEAR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS…THEN SHOWS INTENSIFICATION AS UPPER-WINDS SLACKEN…IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL. IN A COUPLE DAYS…VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT…AND CONDITIONS LOOK RATHER FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IN THE LONGER-RANGE AS THE HWRF AND GFDL SHOW A MORE INTENSE HURRICANE. REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY HOW STRONG IT IS…ALL SIGNS ARE THAT IKE WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR DAYS TO COME. IKE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH OF WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS…ABOUT 260/14. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE WEDGING INTO BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA. THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS…STEERING THE HURRICANE MORE TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST. HOWEVER…MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHEN THIS WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION COULD MATERIALIZE. GENERALLY THE MODELS THAT DRIVE THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH…SUCH AS THE ECMWF/HWRF/GFDL MODELS…SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTACT ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY SEND IKE TOWARD CUBA OR THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE UKMET/GFDN/NOGAPS…ON THE OTHER HAND…SUGGEST THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE MORE THE WEST AND HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AROUND 80W. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE LATTER CLUSTER OF MODELS ALREADY…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GUIDANCE AND SHIFTED SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT CANNOT BE REPEATED ENOUGH THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS…AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE MODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS…ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/1500Z 23.2N 62.7W 105 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 22.9N 64.7W 95 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 22.5N 67.4W 90 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 22.2N 69.9W 95 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 22.2N 72.5W 105 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 24.0N 80.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 25.5N 82.0W 100 KT
$$ FORECASTER BLAKE
KNHC 051452 TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D INDICATE THAT HANNA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING…AS THE LATEST CONVECTIVE BURST HAS PRODUCED AN INNER WIND CORE. HOWEVER…THE RADAR-OBSERVED VELOCITIES DO NOT YET SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT. THE CENTER OF HANNA JOGGED WESTWARD BETWEEN 06-12Z. HOWEVER…THE MELBOURNE RADAR SUGGEST THE CENTER HAS RESUMED A MORE NORTHWARD MOTIONS…WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 325/17. HANNA IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERLIES IN 24-48 HR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO…AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AMONGST THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 36 HR TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION…AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THEREAFTER. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE STILL ISSUES…THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. THUS…THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT NEAR LANDFALL. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HANNA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL…ALTHOUGH THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HR. THE GFS AND UKMET SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEPENING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD…AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 96 AND 120 HR FORECASTS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/1500Z 28.9N 79.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 31.2N 79.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 34.5N 79.1W 55 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 07/0000Z 38.2N 76.1W 45 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 07/1200Z 42.5N 70.1W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 08/1200Z 49.0N 52.5W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 09/1200Z 50.5N 35.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 10/1200Z 51.0N 18.5W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
$$ FORECASTER BEVEN