Tropical Storm Gustav and Landslide Lyndon August 29, 2008

for a more recent update on tropical storm, soon to be hurricane Gustav, CLICK HERE

Louisville Weather: The forecast holds. A front coming through on Friday may kick off a few showers or errant t’storms but nothing substantial areawide. Bad news cause we need the rain. But, it will leave us with a spectacular Labor Day weekend with tons of sun and warm afternoons and relatively mild nights.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Gustav 11pm Forecast Track 0828

Tropical Storm Gustav: The forecast generally holds with this cat. Tropical Storm Gustav is holding together pretty well as it moves across Jamaica. In fact its satellite

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0829 00Z

image looks really impressive. It will emerge over the open water and probably strengthen rather rapidly. I still think that this guy has a chance to explode after it moves away from Jamaica. The forecast track is farther west than it has been with it going inland in western part of Vermillion Bay in Louisiana and then to Lake Charles. This is fairly close to the spaghetti model consensus except there is a bit of a difference. Several models become more muddled at the end of the track and move the storm west as it approaches the coast. The intensity graph also reflects a general consensus in the cat 2 or cat 3 range. The track is reflective of the notion that a ridge of high pressure moves across the

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0829 00Z

southern part of the US and slows the forward track then keeps moving east, picks up the storm and resumes its course northwest. What the outlying models seem to be wanting to do is to have that ridge hang tough in the south US and drive the storm west along the coast. What the ridge does I think will end up being a key to the fate of Gustav. There is also a trof in the Gulf. That will be what breaks down the ridge that is currently steering Gustav and allows for its turn northwest. That trof should help increase a southwesterly shear and the models seem to agree that will inhibit the storm. They key, I think, as to whether or not Gustav becomes excessively strong will be if the southwesterly shear materializes and, if so, how much. If the trof is weak enough…or retreats west as many models suggest…it may not have the storm move to the northwest to the extent that the official forecast calls. Texas should still not write this guy off…there are a couple of real scenarios that I can draw that would move the target farther west.

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0829 00Z

Tropical Storm Hanna: This storm is rather interesting because, until now, there was a general consensus of the storm moving northwest and then swinging out to sea. Earlier data supported the idea that a ridge builds in the Atlantic and

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0829 00Z

blocks it, leaving it hung out to dry. The latest spaghetti tracks now even have it moving Southwest toward the Islands. I suppose that might be the ridge that is supposed to move across the southern US blocking and then driving Gustav, emerging offshore to shove Hanna southwest. Either way, I may have to reverse course a bit and say that this guy may be worth paying attention to after all. The forecast is so muddled that there are numerous scenarios. But I will continue to focus on Gustav until Hanna proves its meddle.

On a side note…yes oil prices rose then fell. Why? (story) Well, the dollar went up and, in my view, the weak dollar is probably the biggest reason for the rise in oil prices. Lately, the dollar has risen and oil prices have fallen. Today there a report came out that the economy expanded by some 3.6% which hardly is evidence of a recession. Anyway, I saw a trader on CNBC today who commented that the rigs were very strong and he thought that the markets would recognize the resiliency of the offshore industry. We’ll see. But so far, it seems the fate of the dollar is more important to the price of oil today than Gustav. We’ll see if that holds…let’s hope the Uncle Sam is stronger than Gustav. The 11pm National Hurricane Center 11pm Discussion for Gustav is at the bottom of this post.

LBJ Listened to His Constituents

On This Date In History: On this date in 1948 Lyndon Baines Johnson, who grew up on the Perdanales River in the Texas Hill Country, was basking in the glow of victory. Johnson had forever gained the moniker “Landslide Lyndon.” The night before the young representative had secured the nomination from his party as the

When LBJ Spoke, Sometimes Others Were Forced to Listen

candidate for the United States senate from Texas. His margin of victory? 87 votes. State politics was pretty wild in the Lone Star State at that time and this case it was no different. After the polls closed a “block of votes” just happened to turn up in Duval County. In Jim Wells County, which often had such a high turnout there were more votes cast than eligible voters, the voting totals kept changing. Each side charged corruption. An investigation was held, then halted when the voting lists in Jim Wells county were either “lost” or “stolen.” The ballots on Duval County were burned by the courthouse janitor. And so, Lyndon Baines Johnson was on his way to the United States Senate and later to the White House as the 36th President of the United States.

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

THE CENTER OF GUSTAV HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
JAMAICA DURING THE EVENING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE KINGSTON
AREA SHOWED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE…AND THE LOWEST OBSERVED
PRESSURE WAS 990 MB. GUSTAV IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF COLD
CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER…WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/6…AFTER A SOUTH OF
WEST MOTION FOR A FEW HOURS. GUSTAV IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECASTS GUSTAV TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR…THEN CONTINUE IN
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 96 HR. THE GUIDANCE IS
RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER 96
HR…THERE IS SOME SPREAD…AS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
WHETHER A RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF GUSTAV. THE
GFDL MOVES THE STORM QUICKLY INLAND…WHILE THE LATEST GFS RUN
SHOWS IT SLOWING DOWN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE NOGAPS CALLS
FOR A LEFT TURN AFTER 96 HR TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THAT IS DOWN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 72 HR….WITH RELIABLE MODEL FORECASTS
REMAINING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TRACK. SINCE TRACK FORECASTS ARE
ALWAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS AT 3-5 DAYS…IT IS SIMPLY
IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV
WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. GUSTAV IS SHOWING GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS AT THIS TIME…BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS…WHICH WOULD
ALLOW SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO
RETREAT WESTWARD AS GUSTAV APPROACHES…WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. HOWEVER…THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
HOW MUCH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE…WITH THE UKMET IN PARTICULAR
SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHEAR AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99
KT…THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT…THE GFDL 111 KT…AND THE HWRF 137 KT.
THE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL. HOWEVER…IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 17.8N 77.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 18.3N 78.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 19.1N 80.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 20.4N 82.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 21.9N 84.2W 100 KT…NEAR COAST OF CUBA
72HR VT 01/0000Z 25.5N 87.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 28.5N 90.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 30.0N 92.5W 90 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Gustav Looking For the Kingston Trio; I’m going Sculling August 28, 2008

for a more recent update on Gustav, CLICK HERE

NHC Gustav Forecast Track 5 pm

Look, the general forecast for Tropical Storm Gustav is not much different than the prior post. The spaghetti models are pretty closely clustered for the official forecast and the intensity graph seems to indicate a growing consensus on the intensity as everyone seems to be coming into agreement regarding the environmental conditions in the Gulf in the next few days. But, the variables remain so, for now, go

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Graph

to it for details. You can also find stuff on Hanna. The storm may have regained hurricane strength based on a pressure of 985mb and the satellite imagery but its running over Jamaica and won’t stay that way. Look for a big uptick on Friday. In any event, this is a brief update because Snow White and I are hitting the river and for the first time doing a two-man scull. She’s warning me not to hit her in the head with the oars and I’m hoping we don’t turn over.

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0828 18Z

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 500 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008 THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA AT ABOUT 1800 UTC TODAY…BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT WAS ABLE TO FLY THROUGH THE CENTER NEAR THAT TIME. FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS INDICATED THAT GUSTAV WAS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE INTENSITY…BUT THE DATA WERE NOT QUITE CONVINCING ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY WHICH REMAINS 60 KT. THE AIRCRAFT SUBSEQUENTLY DETECTED THE CENTER LOCATED INLAND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. A LITTLE WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS GUSTAV INTERACTS WITH LAND…BUT ONCE IT EMERGES OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TOMORROW…CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. DUE TO THE VERY WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA…COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT…IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AT SOME POINT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…ALTHOUGH THAT IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PROHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING EITHER…SO GUSTAV COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN A FEW DAYS…AS FORECAST BY ESSENTIALLY ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. GUSTAV IS RESPONDING TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH BY CONTINUING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 275/5. A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THAT RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SHOULD IMPART A GRADUAL RIGHT TURN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND GENERALLY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERNMOST PROVINCES OF CUBA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES OVER THE GULF…HOWEVER…BOTH IN TERMS OF PATH AND FORWARD SPEED…BOUNDED BY THE FAST GFDL ON THE RIGHT AND A MUCH SLOWER GFS ON THE LEFT. DESPITE SOME CHANGES IN THE INDIVIDUAL MODEL TRACKS…THE CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. SINCE TRACK FORECASTS ARE ALWAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS AT 3-5 DAYS…AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NOTABLE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO…IT IS SIMPLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL. IN FACT…TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK…INTENSITY…AND SIZE FORECASTS…THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF LOUISIANA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 18.1N 76.6W 60 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 18.4N 77.8W 55 KT…INLAND OVER JAMAICA 24HR VT 29/1800Z 19.1N 79.7W 70 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 20.1N 81.7W 80 KT 48HR VT 30/1800Z 21.5N 83.6W 95 KT 72HR VT 31/1800Z 25.0N 87.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 01/1800Z 28.0N 89.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 02/1800Z 30.0N 91.5W 85 KT…INLAND $$ FORECASTER KNABB

Gustav is No Hurricane; Original Oilman was No Jed Clampett August 28, 2008

for a more recent update on Gustav and Hanna, CLICK HERE

Louisville Weather: Well, we may not have gotten much rain from Fay but we sure did get snookered. The track of the storm Tuesday was too far East and South for much rain west of I-75. There were some very interesting tropical clouds on Tuesday night. Then on Wednesday, the low level circulation of Fay drifted close us and we got socked with low level clouds while the upper support finally got knocked off to the east where they got lots of rain. The remnant circulation will be kinda stuck and drifting so there’s a chance for clouds filling back in but the approach of a front should start to pick it up and take it away. Since we are on the dry side of the former tropical storm, the front on Friday will be moisture starved so rain will be limited. That will set up a fine Labor Day Weekend with warm afternoons and relatively mild nights and somewhat low humidity.

Tropical Storm Gustav NHC official forecast Track 0827 11pm

Tropical Storm Gustav: Tropical Storm Gustav is having a bit of a tough time but all indications continue that it will regain its former self and then some. However, it currently is barely enjoying Tropical Storm Status. There is no eye or eyewall and the pressure is a rather

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0828 00Z

pedestrian 999mb. If you look at the satellite its really tough to find a center. But, as the relatively small storm sneaks between Cuba and Jamaica it will have a chance to get its act together. The caveat of course is that if Jamaica or Cuba gets in its way. Nevertheless, even if it does interact with the circulation, this would probably just serve to delay development. The Spaghetti Models seem to be clustered with a solution of Tropical Storm Gustav swinging between Jamaica and Cuba and then moving into the Central Gulf before moving toward Louisiana. The idea is that the ridge starts to break down some and the storm moves around the ridge. The models generally have a landfall from between New Orleans and Sabine Pass. The official forecast remains generally unchanged with New Orleans as the target, though I have my secret theory of why that is the case. Twelve of Sixteen longer term models on the Spaghetti Intensity graph take the storm to hurricane strength anywhere from Cat 1 to Cat 4 with most somewhere in between. There remains a lot of variables in spite of what the models think. When and how much the ridge breaks down will

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0828 00Z

be a key to the track. The ridge is already strong enough that the storm is actually moving with a southerly component, which I don’t think too many models had predicted. Whether or not there is southwesterly shear when it gets in the Gulf will have a bearing on the intensity as a trof moves in. Neither of these three variables are completely clear. Then there is the prospect of another high coming in and blocking the storm somewhere down the road. This is why the National Hurricane Center cautions of against taking the forecast as Gospel. The forecast has changed numerous times over the past several days and there will be more. Whether or not that has to do with the track or the intensity, or both, cannot be credibly assessed. I still personally think that all this will be a formidable storm and perhaps pose the most serious threat to the nation so far this hurricane season. At the bottom is the 11pm National Hurricane Center Gustav Discussion.

Drake (in the top hat) Visits What Should Have Been

On This Date In History: Edwin Laurentine Drake retired as a railroad conductor in 1858 due to a bad back. He lived at the Tontine Hotel in New Haven, Connecticut with his wife and child. Some retirement, huh? Well, that’s why a fellow boarder named James Townsend talked him into investing in the Seneca Oil Company. See, it was widely known that the Indians in Pennsylvania had used crude oil that bubbled to the surface as an ointment for aching joints. Townsend thought that the stuff could be used as a substitute for whale oil and as a lubricant. Trouble was, no one knew how to produce it in large quantities.

So, Townsend talked Drake into investing his life savings of $200, gave him a large stake of stock and promised him a salary of $1000 a year for expenses. Drake took him up on it and moved to Titusville, Pa. Well, Townsend and his partners took back their stock from Drake, but that didn’t stop him. After finding out that having men digging with picks and shovels didn’t work, he came up with a new idea. He turned to drilling. He hired Uncle Billy Smith, who was a blacksmith who had salt-boring experience. By 1859, the directors of the company, including Townsend, had lost interest but Drake persisted. They built a derrick and bought a small nautical engine. Sand and clay clogged their drill hole but they persisted. Drake had a brainstorm….he decided to use a pipe to form a shaft for the drill. On August 28, 1859 Drake looked down the hole and saw something glistening. When he inquired as to what it was, Uncle Billy said, “it’s your fortune.”

Well, it would have been if he had patented his drilling apparatus and scheme. It would have been had he been able to hold on to his stock. Others rushed in and became overnight millionaires while Drake made a total of $16,000 over four years serving as an agent and justice of the peace. Then he lost it all on Wall Street. Later, he and his family were found living destitute and the state of Pennsylvania granted him a $1500 annual pension. After he died, a monument was erected in Titusville to the man who started the oil industry. That monument is about all there is to show for it.

Tropical Storm Gustav NHC Discussion

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008 THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS AT 23Z. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF GUSTAV BEGAN TO MOVE WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 39 KT AND THE HIGHEST RECENT BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS WERE 41 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 250/7…ALTHOUGH THE CENTER HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO TRACK SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST FIX AND MIGHT BE A LITTLE SOUTH OF MY ADVISORY POSITION. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE…ORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST…IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS RIDGE HAS IMPARTED A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION THAT SOME MODELS SHOW PERSISTING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT…GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD IS THE EVOLUTION AND IMPACT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING HIGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD REMINISCENT OF WHAT HAPPENED WITH FAY A WEEK OR SO AGO. GIVEN THESE FACTORS…THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES MOST STRONGLY ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF…UKMET…GFDL…AND GFS…WHICH IS NOW FOLLOWING THE VORTEX FAIRLY WELL…AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE LEFT. GUSTAV HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DISPRUPTED BY ITS ENCOUNTER WITH THE TERRAIN OF HAITI. IN ADDITION…MID-LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE OVERTAKING THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHEAST. IN ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS…HOWEVER…GUSTAV SHOULD FIND ITSELF UNDER AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND OVER THE VERY DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…AND SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN. IN ADDITION…THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES GUSTAV OVER THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. AFTER THAT…GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER RESTRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INITIALLY…BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR…AND ROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. IT PROBABLY WOULDN’T HURT TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE 5-DAY OFFICIAL TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 300 MILES…AND THE AVERAGE 5-DAY INTENSITY ERROR IS ABOUT 25 MPH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 18.8N 75.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 18.8N 76.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 18.9N 78.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 19.4N 79.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 20.1N 81.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 31/0000Z 22.5N 84.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 02/0000Z 29.0N 89.5W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Tropical Storm Gustav Not Playing Ball August 27, 2008

for a more recent update on Gustav, CLICK HERE

Someone forgot to clue in Tropical Storm Gustav on the forecast because it’s not playing along. After it got blocked by the ridge, its just been sorta drifting to the

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0827 18Z

west, which means its circulation has been getting disrupted for quite some time over the mountains of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. I believe that they are some 10,000 feet. Actually, its not too unusual for a storm to get stuck before a new steering flow comes about and it is moving, albeit slowly. As it gets more into the flow, it should begin to pick up forward speed. The official forecast track from the National

NHC Gustav Forecast Track 0827 5pm

Hurricane Center is not too different from the previous outlooks and is similar to most of the spaghetti model. While there is a bunch of hubub in the media because the NHC forecast takes aim at New Orleans, you can read in the discussion much uncertainty. In past discussions they have intimated that there might be a slight

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0827 18Z

southwesterly shear when it gets into the middle of the Gulf. That would tend to disrupt the upper support and inhibit outflow and therefore intensity growth. This time, they mention models suggesting a weaking in the steering currents once it gets into the Gulf. While they keep the track similar, the NHC slows down the forward progress a tad but the discussions indicate that there are many variables. Bottom line is that there are many scenarios for Gustav. My guess is that it will be a big bopper. In spite of what I guess, there is nothing that can reliably give exact maximum strength, how it will maintain itself and where it will make landfall or how strong it will be at this time. Interests from Pensacola to Corpus Christi I would think would want to monitor this. There is no consensus among the models on the Spaghetti Intensity Graph.

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO GUSTAV INDICATES
THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED A BIT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 999
MB AND A PEAK SFMR WIND OF ABOUT 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DESPITE THE SHORT-TERM
WEAKENING…ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
RE-INTENSIFICATION ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA…LIKELY
TONIGHT. STILL…THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
INTENSITY MODELS WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING ROBUST
STRENGTHENING…AND THE STATISTICALLY-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS
THAT FORECAST ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

GUSTAV CONTINUES TO CRAWL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
OF 300/03. THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED.
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IN 2-3 DAYS…THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST…TAKING GUSTAV OVER OR VERY NEAR WESTERN CUBA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY DAY 5…SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS COULD WEAKEN RESULTING IN
A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED. IN GENERAL…THE TRACK MODELS HAVE
NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE STILL REMAINS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING GUSTAV’S ULTIMATE TRACK AT DAYS 3-5…AND IT
IS MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT IMPACT THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 19.1N 74.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 19.1N 75.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 19.2N 76.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 19.5N 78.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 20.2N 79.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 22.0N 83.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 31/1800Z 25.5N 86.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 01/1800Z 28.5N 88.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

Tropical Storm Gustav Likely Becoming a Hurricane August 26, 2008

for a more recent update for hurricane gustav CLICK HERE

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0826 00Z

If you look back and read between the lines of my comments on the previous post,

Gustav Official NHC Forecast Track 0825 11pm EDT

you might be able to gleen a bit of a suspicion that they would continue to shift the official track farther south to the solution that takes Gustav south of Cuba. If you got my hurricane newsletter, then you got a more direct submission. In any event, the National Hurricane Center made an initial forecast track today running the storm north of Cuba but they also cautioned that the confidence was not high. Not unusual as the storm really sprang to life today after being relatively docile for most of its life. Except for one set of runs, the spaghetti chart indicated that numerous models wanted to take it to the south of

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0826 00Z

Cuba and now the official forecast reflects that the consensus is a little more clear and that, indeed, there is evidence that a ridge is building over Florida that will steer the storm west. Gustav should spend most of Tuesday as a strengthening hurricane and if anything, the forecast track is more likely to shift farther south than north.

That is good news for Florida and bad news for the Gulf of Mexico and potentially for all of our pocketbooks. Should it follow the forecast track, the likelihood of it increasing in intensity ever looms larger. Four of the models in the spaghetti

Invest 95L Spaghetti Model 0826 00Z

intensity graph now indicate a storm well into the category 3 area with winds approaching 110 kts. It is not unreasonable at this point that its not out of the question that there could be more beyond that. Keep in mind that six models keep it below hurricane status with two of them going from a strong cat 1 back to a tropical storm, which indicates a landfall over one of the islands. Five models go between cat 1 and cat 2.

Bottom line: If this guy stays mainly over water and follows the general forecast track, which seems like a pretty real possibility, then it will have the potential to become a big bopper because it would then have the opportunity to move into the wide warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. But, there is a lot of time between now and then so don’t buy the plywood just yet. But, in my mind of all the storms that have developed this year, this one is probably the one that has the greatest need to be watched very closely by all maritime and coastal interests, particularly the Gulf Coast from Brownsville to Mobile. Invest 95L shows up on some models as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane but, as I’ve said before, it still looks to be mainly a concern for maritime interests, except for Bermuda. Here is the 11PM National Hurricane Center Discussion for Tropical Storm Gustav:

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS…WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND A THICKENING EYEWALL. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 00Z WERE T3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB BUT THE STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SINCE THEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT AND THE NEXT AIRCRAFT AT 06Z WILL MOST LIKELY FIND A HURRICANE. A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2243Z SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL EYEWALL. GIVEN THIS STRUCTURE…AND A SHIPS RI INDEX WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY…SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHING HAITI. AFTER THAT…THE INTENSITY OF GUSTAV WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW MUCH THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HAITI AND CUBA. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT…WHILE NOT ANTICYCLONIC…IS AT LEAST DIFLUENT AND OF LIGHT SHEAR. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK INDICATES MORE TIME OVER WATER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT THAT. BOTH THE GFDL AND THE HWRF SHOW GUSTAV AVOIDING NEARLY ALL OF CUBA AND HAVE GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE IN FIVE DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWING OF GUSTAV’S FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE LEFT. EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS…THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS KEEP GUSTAV SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT MOST OF THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 16.6N 71.4W 60 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 17.5N 72.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 18.5N 73.9W 80 KT…INLAND 36HR VT 27/1200Z 19.3N 75.1W 75 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 19.8N 76.2W 80 KT 72HR VT 29/0000Z 20.5N 78.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 30/0000Z 21.5N 80.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 31/0000Z 23.0N 83.5W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Tropical Storm Gustav Track Unclear August 25, 2008

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in to street level, loop and navigate anywhere in the entire nation.

for a more recent update on Gustav, CLICK HERE

Tropical Storm Gustav NHC Forecast Track 5 pm 0825

First off, you could tell that Gustav was getting itself together quite nicely last night. Consequently, the NHC made it a depression while the Hurricane Hunters

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0825 18Z

were on the way. When they got there, the found a closed eyewall with a 30 nm eye and winds of 60 mph. In the afternoon, a second plane found that conditions had not changed and the satellite imagery is not quite as impressive. However, this may just be a resting period. The immediate future of Gustav will reside mainly with the track. The official track takes it now right up the middle of Cuba, which would tend to mess it up. But it also would mean an entry into the wide open Gulf of Mexico. This is a track farther south than the previous track, which the NHC admitted was somewhat suspect. They still mention caution regarding the track. The spaghetti models seem to have a general shift to the south with several really giving it a sharp turn

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0825 18Z

west before it gets to Cuba and running it south of the island. This would be in response to a building ridge over Florida. If this happens, Florida would be protected. If it were to track south of Cuba and not get too messed up with the big mountains of the eastern end of the island, then it would have great potential to develop as it moves toward the Yucatan Channel and the Gulf. Of the 16 models depicted in the spaghetti intensity graph, 10 make it a hurricane with four approaching Cat 3 status. But, as the NHC notes, the GFS isn’t too enthused with it and the UKMET totally loses interest. So, there are a variety of scenarios. My guess is that this guy is not going away and its near term life will be determined by Fidel Castro’s lovely island. Here is the 5pm discussion:

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

AFTER ITS RATHER RAPID INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION EARLIER TODAY…THE
CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV HAS BECOME A LITTLE
RAGGED-LOOKING…PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CENTER. THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A VERY SMALL AREA OF STRONG WINDS JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED
OF 67 KT. USING A 75 PERCENT RATIO OF SURFACE TO FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS APPROPRIATE FOR THE 925 MB FLIGHT ALTITUDE GIVES 50 KT FOR
THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ASSUMING THE CURRENTLY LESS-ORGANIZED
APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE IS MERELY TEMPORARY…STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY GIVEN THE APPARENTLY FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL AND OCEANIC
CONDITIONS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…THE STRENGTH OF GUSTAV
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE A STRONG FUNCTION OF HOW MUCH THE CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH LAND. INTERESTINGLY…THE GFS CONTINUES TO FAIL TO
SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL
MODEL SHOWS WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST…315/12. THE
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STEERING CURRENTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION OF GUSTAV TO
GRADUALLY BEND TOWARD THE LEFT AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST…WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE TO THE
LEFT OF THIS NHC FORECAST. NOTE THAT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS…AND ONE SHOULD
NOT FOCUS ON THESE PRECISE POINTS.

THE WIND RADII WERE DECREASED A LITTLE SINCE THE AIRCRAFT
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT GUSTAV IS A LITTLE SMALLER THAN EARLIER
ESTIMATED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 16.3N 71.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.2N 72.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.4N 73.3W 65 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.4N 74.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 20.2N 75.5W 65 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 28/1800Z 21.3N 77.5W 55 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 29/1800Z 22.0N 79.0W 50 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 30/1800Z 23.0N 81.0W 50 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH