Gustav Is A Pretty Boy; Hanna Is Getting Ready; Ike Looks To Crash The Party September 2, 2008

for a more recent update on all of the tropical activity, CLICK HERE

To Track Hurricane Gustav via radar loop, CLICK HERE. You may be able to navigate to create at least a partial Hurricane Hanna Loop as it may be close enough to radar installations to see some of it.

Tropical Storm Gustav Forecast Track 0902 11pm

So far, Gustav does not seem to be too interested in slowing its forward progress, though the radar imagery that I’m looking at as I type does seem to indicate some

5 Day Forecast Rain Total Thru Sat Eve.

slowing going on. It still has a very impressive satellite image that looks much better structured than it did on Sunday night as it approached Louisiana. The forecast has been money so far and the progs all indicate that it gets stuck in West Louisiana or East Texas. While rainfall totals have been manageable so far due to its moving right along, the next 4 days still produce another 10-15 inches. So for it’s been interesting in that there were numerous tornado reports well away from landfall. I counted at least over 80 tornado reports out of the Jackson, MS, Mobile, AL, and Tallahassee, FL weather offices today. Southwest Alabama and SE Mississippi have received some of the heaviest rainfall of the day as they’ve been raked by bands coming off the Gulf. I’m not going to post the spaghetti stuff for Gustav any longer. I’m going to turn my attention to Hanna and Ike. I think Ike may be a trouble maker down the line.

Hurricane Hanna Forecast Track 11pm 0901

Hurricane Hanna: It’s been dawdling and will continue to do so, flirting with the Bahamas with a general drift with a southwesterly component. Its expected by Wednesday to get caught up in a ridge building in

Hurricane Hanna Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0902 00Z

that will steer it around the ridge to the SE US. Still looks like a wide area 200 miles south and 300 miles north of Savannah, GA will get whacked by the end of the week. Tough call given the angle of attack in

Hurricane Hanna Spaghetti Model 0902 00Z

relation to the coastline. Right now, north of Savannah is the track. Hurricane Hanna Spaghetti Models have a general consensus with the track and the intensity is forecast for moderate strengthening. As long as it lurks over the same spot though for the next day or so, it will have a tough time increasing in intensity and if it stays there too long, it may even lose some punch. Upwelling, you know?

Tropical Storm Ike Forecast Track 0901 11PM

Tropical Storm Ike: This guy is a bit troublesome. Some of the models want to really ramp this guy up and it would appear that the idea is that the ridge that drives Hanna north, expands and gets wide a fat, which means that Ike will just rumble along to the west and is forecast to move into the Bahamas by the end of

Tro;pical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0902 00Z

the week. If that ridge maintains itself, then there is no reason to think that ole Ike may just continue to move along due west. Now, the ridge can’t last forever so there are a lot of variables with it. Any

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model 0902 00Z

weakening and it turns north. Most of the models though for the foreseeable future have Hurricane Ike emulating his namesake and nemesis of Wyatt Earp: Ike Clanton. Go west, young man!

Tropical Storm Gustav Soon to Be Hurricane Gustav Again August 29, 2008

For The Initial Hurricane Report on Hurricane Gustav Click Here

Tropical Storm Gustav NHC Forecast Track 11am 0829

Tropical Storm Gustav I suspect will be Hurricane Gustav before the sun goes down. From the satellite photo, it looks extremely impressive and it would honestly surprise me if it isn’t Hurricane Gustav well before sundown. At 11am it was down to 988mb with winds at 65 mph. That won’t last and I also think it will zip up in intensity pretty quickly. There is nothing to really stand in its way over the next day or so. The, the questions that I raised in the last post (..Landslide Lyndon, click here) show up. And, some of those questions now are showing up even more prominently on the spaghetti model. Now, six models have the storm swinging toward Texas with others wanting to turn it west either just off the Louisiana coast or just after a mid Central Louisiana landfall. Now, the spaghetti intensity model

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Model Graph 0829 12Z

graph backs off the models in the extreme range as they seem to be of the opinion that the trof in the Gulf will stay put and enough of a southwesterly shear to inhibit intensification. I would caution that intensity forecasts are often wrong. I would also caution about the track. While the NHC has slightly shoved it to the right, it is becoming easier to make a case for farther west. Interests from New Orleans to Victoria Texas to pay attention.

Here is a story regarding oil and gasoline prices.

Heres the 11AM Tropical Storm Gustav 11AM Discussion:

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0829 12Z

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008 SINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX OVER WESTERN JAMAICA AT ABOUT 1100 UTC…WHICH INCLUDED A CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 988 MB…GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT GUSTAV IS REGAINING ORGANIZATION NOW THAT ITS CENTER HAS EMERGED OVER WATER WEST OF JAMAICA. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55 KT UNTIL WE RECEIVE NEW DATA FROM THE NEXT AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON…ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV IS ALREADY A LITTLE STRONGER. THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE MORE THAN 24 HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE…SO STRENGTHENING SEEMS IMMINENT AND COULD EVEN BE RAPID. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A 28 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SINCE THERE IS ABOUT 36 HOURS LEFT BEFORE GUSTAV CROSSES CUBA…THERE REMAINS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THAT ISLAND. CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEAR TO SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE AS WELL…ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE A LITTLE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. GUSTAV IS MOVING AT ABOUT 295/7 BUT IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING TO THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH…AND IS HEADED FOR A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PATH OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA IN ROUGHLY 36 HOURS…FOLLOWED BY A TRACK INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER…THE MODELS DIVERGE TREMENDOUSLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE HIGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MODELS THAT SHOW A SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES HIGH…WHILE THOSE THAT ARE FASTER AND STRAIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOW LESS OF THAT RIDGING. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS…GIVING RESPECT TO THE NWS MODELS GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF…WHICH ALSO SEEM TO DEPICT A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SYSTEM THAT WE EXPECT GUSTAV TO BE. NEEDLESS TO SAY…DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN…AND FINAL LANDFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 18.6N 78.8W 55 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 19.3N 80.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 20.8N 81.8W 80 KT 36HR VT 31/0000Z 22.6N 83.8W 95 KT…OVER WESTERN CUBA 48HR VT 31/1200Z 24.3N 85.7W 105 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 27.5N 89.0W 105 KT 96HR VT 02/1200Z 29.5N 91.0W 100 KT…INLAND 120HR VT 03/1200Z 31.0N 93.0W 60 KT…INLAND $$ FORECASTER KNABB

Tropical Storm Gustav and Landslide Lyndon August 29, 2008

for a more recent update on tropical storm, soon to be hurricane Gustav, CLICK HERE

Louisville Weather: The forecast holds. A front coming through on Friday may kick off a few showers or errant t’storms but nothing substantial areawide. Bad news cause we need the rain. But, it will leave us with a spectacular Labor Day weekend with tons of sun and warm afternoons and relatively mild nights.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Gustav 11pm Forecast Track 0828

Tropical Storm Gustav: The forecast generally holds with this cat. Tropical Storm Gustav is holding together pretty well as it moves across Jamaica. In fact its satellite

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0829 00Z

image looks really impressive. It will emerge over the open water and probably strengthen rather rapidly. I still think that this guy has a chance to explode after it moves away from Jamaica. The forecast track is farther west than it has been with it going inland in western part of Vermillion Bay in Louisiana and then to Lake Charles. This is fairly close to the spaghetti model consensus except there is a bit of a difference. Several models become more muddled at the end of the track and move the storm west as it approaches the coast. The intensity graph also reflects a general consensus in the cat 2 or cat 3 range. The track is reflective of the notion that a ridge of high pressure moves across the

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0829 00Z

southern part of the US and slows the forward track then keeps moving east, picks up the storm and resumes its course northwest. What the outlying models seem to be wanting to do is to have that ridge hang tough in the south US and drive the storm west along the coast. What the ridge does I think will end up being a key to the fate of Gustav. There is also a trof in the Gulf. That will be what breaks down the ridge that is currently steering Gustav and allows for its turn northwest. That trof should help increase a southwesterly shear and the models seem to agree that will inhibit the storm. They key, I think, as to whether or not Gustav becomes excessively strong will be if the southwesterly shear materializes and, if so, how much. If the trof is weak enough…or retreats west as many models suggest…it may not have the storm move to the northwest to the extent that the official forecast calls. Texas should still not write this guy off…there are a couple of real scenarios that I can draw that would move the target farther west.

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0829 00Z

Tropical Storm Hanna: This storm is rather interesting because, until now, there was a general consensus of the storm moving northwest and then swinging out to sea. Earlier data supported the idea that a ridge builds in the Atlantic and

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0829 00Z

blocks it, leaving it hung out to dry. The latest spaghetti tracks now even have it moving Southwest toward the Islands. I suppose that might be the ridge that is supposed to move across the southern US blocking and then driving Gustav, emerging offshore to shove Hanna southwest. Either way, I may have to reverse course a bit and say that this guy may be worth paying attention to after all. The forecast is so muddled that there are numerous scenarios. But I will continue to focus on Gustav until Hanna proves its meddle.

On a side note…yes oil prices rose then fell. Why? (story) Well, the dollar went up and, in my view, the weak dollar is probably the biggest reason for the rise in oil prices. Lately, the dollar has risen and oil prices have fallen. Today there a report came out that the economy expanded by some 3.6% which hardly is evidence of a recession. Anyway, I saw a trader on CNBC today who commented that the rigs were very strong and he thought that the markets would recognize the resiliency of the offshore industry. We’ll see. But so far, it seems the fate of the dollar is more important to the price of oil today than Gustav. We’ll see if that holds…let’s hope the Uncle Sam is stronger than Gustav. The 11pm National Hurricane Center 11pm Discussion for Gustav is at the bottom of this post.

LBJ Listened to His Constituents

On This Date In History: On this date in 1948 Lyndon Baines Johnson, who grew up on the Perdanales River in the Texas Hill Country, was basking in the glow of victory. Johnson had forever gained the moniker “Landslide Lyndon.” The night before the young representative had secured the nomination from his party as the

When LBJ Spoke, Sometimes Others Were Forced to Listen

candidate for the United States senate from Texas. His margin of victory? 87 votes. State politics was pretty wild in the Lone Star State at that time and this case it was no different. After the polls closed a “block of votes” just happened to turn up in Duval County. In Jim Wells County, which often had such a high turnout there were more votes cast than eligible voters, the voting totals kept changing. Each side charged corruption. An investigation was held, then halted when the voting lists in Jim Wells county were either “lost” or “stolen.” The ballots on Duval County were burned by the courthouse janitor. And so, Lyndon Baines Johnson was on his way to the United States Senate and later to the White House as the 36th President of the United States.

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

THE CENTER OF GUSTAV HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
JAMAICA DURING THE EVENING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE KINGSTON
AREA SHOWED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE…AND THE LOWEST OBSERVED
PRESSURE WAS 990 MB. GUSTAV IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF COLD
CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER…WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/6…AFTER A SOUTH OF
WEST MOTION FOR A FEW HOURS. GUSTAV IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECASTS GUSTAV TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR…THEN CONTINUE IN
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 96 HR. THE GUIDANCE IS
RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER 96
HR…THERE IS SOME SPREAD…AS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
WHETHER A RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF GUSTAV. THE
GFDL MOVES THE STORM QUICKLY INLAND…WHILE THE LATEST GFS RUN
SHOWS IT SLOWING DOWN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE NOGAPS CALLS
FOR A LEFT TURN AFTER 96 HR TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THAT IS DOWN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 72 HR….WITH RELIABLE MODEL FORECASTS
REMAINING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TRACK. SINCE TRACK FORECASTS ARE
ALWAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS AT 3-5 DAYS…IT IS SIMPLY
IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV
WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. GUSTAV IS SHOWING GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS AT THIS TIME…BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS…WHICH WOULD
ALLOW SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO
RETREAT WESTWARD AS GUSTAV APPROACHES…WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. HOWEVER…THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
HOW MUCH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE…WITH THE UKMET IN PARTICULAR
SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHEAR AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99
KT…THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT…THE GFDL 111 KT…AND THE HWRF 137 KT.
THE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL. HOWEVER…IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 17.8N 77.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 18.3N 78.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 19.1N 80.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 20.4N 82.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 21.9N 84.2W 100 KT…NEAR COAST OF CUBA
72HR VT 01/0000Z 25.5N 87.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 28.5N 90.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 30.0N 92.5W 90 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Gustav Looking For the Kingston Trio; I’m going Sculling August 28, 2008

for a more recent update on Gustav, CLICK HERE

NHC Gustav Forecast Track 5 pm

Look, the general forecast for Tropical Storm Gustav is not much different than the prior post. The spaghetti models are pretty closely clustered for the official forecast and the intensity graph seems to indicate a growing consensus on the intensity as everyone seems to be coming into agreement regarding the environmental conditions in the Gulf in the next few days. But, the variables remain so, for now, go

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Graph

to it for details. You can also find stuff on Hanna. The storm may have regained hurricane strength based on a pressure of 985mb and the satellite imagery but its running over Jamaica and won’t stay that way. Look for a big uptick on Friday. In any event, this is a brief update because Snow White and I are hitting the river and for the first time doing a two-man scull. She’s warning me not to hit her in the head with the oars and I’m hoping we don’t turn over.

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0828 18Z

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 500 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008 THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA AT ABOUT 1800 UTC TODAY…BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT WAS ABLE TO FLY THROUGH THE CENTER NEAR THAT TIME. FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS INDICATED THAT GUSTAV WAS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE INTENSITY…BUT THE DATA WERE NOT QUITE CONVINCING ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY WHICH REMAINS 60 KT. THE AIRCRAFT SUBSEQUENTLY DETECTED THE CENTER LOCATED INLAND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. A LITTLE WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS GUSTAV INTERACTS WITH LAND…BUT ONCE IT EMERGES OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TOMORROW…CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. DUE TO THE VERY WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA…COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT…IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AT SOME POINT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…ALTHOUGH THAT IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PROHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING EITHER…SO GUSTAV COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN A FEW DAYS…AS FORECAST BY ESSENTIALLY ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. GUSTAV IS RESPONDING TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH BY CONTINUING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 275/5. A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THAT RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SHOULD IMPART A GRADUAL RIGHT TURN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND GENERALLY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERNMOST PROVINCES OF CUBA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES OVER THE GULF…HOWEVER…BOTH IN TERMS OF PATH AND FORWARD SPEED…BOUNDED BY THE FAST GFDL ON THE RIGHT AND A MUCH SLOWER GFS ON THE LEFT. DESPITE SOME CHANGES IN THE INDIVIDUAL MODEL TRACKS…THE CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. SINCE TRACK FORECASTS ARE ALWAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS AT 3-5 DAYS…AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NOTABLE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO…IT IS SIMPLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL. IN FACT…TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK…INTENSITY…AND SIZE FORECASTS…THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF LOUISIANA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 18.1N 76.6W 60 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 18.4N 77.8W 55 KT…INLAND OVER JAMAICA 24HR VT 29/1800Z 19.1N 79.7W 70 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 20.1N 81.7W 80 KT 48HR VT 30/1800Z 21.5N 83.6W 95 KT 72HR VT 31/1800Z 25.0N 87.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 01/1800Z 28.0N 89.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 02/1800Z 30.0N 91.5W 85 KT…INLAND $$ FORECASTER KNABB

Gustav is No Hurricane; Original Oilman was No Jed Clampett August 28, 2008

for a more recent update on Gustav and Hanna, CLICK HERE

Louisville Weather: Well, we may not have gotten much rain from Fay but we sure did get snookered. The track of the storm Tuesday was too far East and South for much rain west of I-75. There were some very interesting tropical clouds on Tuesday night. Then on Wednesday, the low level circulation of Fay drifted close us and we got socked with low level clouds while the upper support finally got knocked off to the east where they got lots of rain. The remnant circulation will be kinda stuck and drifting so there’s a chance for clouds filling back in but the approach of a front should start to pick it up and take it away. Since we are on the dry side of the former tropical storm, the front on Friday will be moisture starved so rain will be limited. That will set up a fine Labor Day Weekend with warm afternoons and relatively mild nights and somewhat low humidity.

Tropical Storm Gustav NHC official forecast Track 0827 11pm

Tropical Storm Gustav: Tropical Storm Gustav is having a bit of a tough time but all indications continue that it will regain its former self and then some. However, it currently is barely enjoying Tropical Storm Status. There is no eye or eyewall and the pressure is a rather

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0828 00Z

pedestrian 999mb. If you look at the satellite its really tough to find a center. But, as the relatively small storm sneaks between Cuba and Jamaica it will have a chance to get its act together. The caveat of course is that if Jamaica or Cuba gets in its way. Nevertheless, even if it does interact with the circulation, this would probably just serve to delay development. The Spaghetti Models seem to be clustered with a solution of Tropical Storm Gustav swinging between Jamaica and Cuba and then moving into the Central Gulf before moving toward Louisiana. The idea is that the ridge starts to break down some and the storm moves around the ridge. The models generally have a landfall from between New Orleans and Sabine Pass. The official forecast remains generally unchanged with New Orleans as the target, though I have my secret theory of why that is the case. Twelve of Sixteen longer term models on the Spaghetti Intensity graph take the storm to hurricane strength anywhere from Cat 1 to Cat 4 with most somewhere in between. There remains a lot of variables in spite of what the models think. When and how much the ridge breaks down will

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0828 00Z

be a key to the track. The ridge is already strong enough that the storm is actually moving with a southerly component, which I don’t think too many models had predicted. Whether or not there is southwesterly shear when it gets in the Gulf will have a bearing on the intensity as a trof moves in. Neither of these three variables are completely clear. Then there is the prospect of another high coming in and blocking the storm somewhere down the road. This is why the National Hurricane Center cautions of against taking the forecast as Gospel. The forecast has changed numerous times over the past several days and there will be more. Whether or not that has to do with the track or the intensity, or both, cannot be credibly assessed. I still personally think that all this will be a formidable storm and perhaps pose the most serious threat to the nation so far this hurricane season. At the bottom is the 11pm National Hurricane Center Gustav Discussion.

Drake (in the top hat) Visits What Should Have Been

On This Date In History: Edwin Laurentine Drake retired as a railroad conductor in 1858 due to a bad back. He lived at the Tontine Hotel in New Haven, Connecticut with his wife and child. Some retirement, huh? Well, that’s why a fellow boarder named James Townsend talked him into investing in the Seneca Oil Company. See, it was widely known that the Indians in Pennsylvania had used crude oil that bubbled to the surface as an ointment for aching joints. Townsend thought that the stuff could be used as a substitute for whale oil and as a lubricant. Trouble was, no one knew how to produce it in large quantities.

So, Townsend talked Drake into investing his life savings of $200, gave him a large stake of stock and promised him a salary of $1000 a year for expenses. Drake took him up on it and moved to Titusville, Pa. Well, Townsend and his partners took back their stock from Drake, but that didn’t stop him. After finding out that having men digging with picks and shovels didn’t work, he came up with a new idea. He turned to drilling. He hired Uncle Billy Smith, who was a blacksmith who had salt-boring experience. By 1859, the directors of the company, including Townsend, had lost interest but Drake persisted. They built a derrick and bought a small nautical engine. Sand and clay clogged their drill hole but they persisted. Drake had a brainstorm….he decided to use a pipe to form a shaft for the drill. On August 28, 1859 Drake looked down the hole and saw something glistening. When he inquired as to what it was, Uncle Billy said, “it’s your fortune.”

Well, it would have been if he had patented his drilling apparatus and scheme. It would have been had he been able to hold on to his stock. Others rushed in and became overnight millionaires while Drake made a total of $16,000 over four years serving as an agent and justice of the peace. Then he lost it all on Wall Street. Later, he and his family were found living destitute and the state of Pennsylvania granted him a $1500 annual pension. After he died, a monument was erected in Titusville to the man who started the oil industry. That monument is about all there is to show for it.

Tropical Storm Gustav NHC Discussion

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008 THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS AT 23Z. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF GUSTAV BEGAN TO MOVE WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 39 KT AND THE HIGHEST RECENT BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS WERE 41 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 250/7…ALTHOUGH THE CENTER HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO TRACK SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST FIX AND MIGHT BE A LITTLE SOUTH OF MY ADVISORY POSITION. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE…ORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST…IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS RIDGE HAS IMPARTED A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION THAT SOME MODELS SHOW PERSISTING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT…GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD IS THE EVOLUTION AND IMPACT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING HIGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD REMINISCENT OF WHAT HAPPENED WITH FAY A WEEK OR SO AGO. GIVEN THESE FACTORS…THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES MOST STRONGLY ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF…UKMET…GFDL…AND GFS…WHICH IS NOW FOLLOWING THE VORTEX FAIRLY WELL…AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE LEFT. GUSTAV HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DISPRUPTED BY ITS ENCOUNTER WITH THE TERRAIN OF HAITI. IN ADDITION…MID-LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE OVERTAKING THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHEAST. IN ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS…HOWEVER…GUSTAV SHOULD FIND ITSELF UNDER AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND OVER THE VERY DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…AND SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN. IN ADDITION…THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES GUSTAV OVER THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. AFTER THAT…GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER RESTRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INITIALLY…BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR…AND ROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. IT PROBABLY WOULDN’T HURT TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE 5-DAY OFFICIAL TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 300 MILES…AND THE AVERAGE 5-DAY INTENSITY ERROR IS ABOUT 25 MPH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 18.8N 75.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 18.8N 76.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 18.9N 78.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 19.4N 79.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 20.1N 81.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 31/0000Z 22.5N 84.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 02/0000Z 29.0N 89.5W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Tropical Storm Gustav Tangled In Haiti August 27, 2008

for a more recent update on tropical storm gustav, CLICK HERE

NHC Tropical Storm Gustav Track 0827 11AM EDT

Tropical Storm Gustav has not become a hurricane yet, which is probably my biggest surprise of the day. Gustav may have fallen victim to a Haitian Voodoo spell because it kinda just got hung up on the Peninsula. You can also tell from the

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Model Graph 0827 12Z

Satellite pic that there is some shear messing it up as there is a nice outflow to the south but not much on the northern half. What’s probably going on is that the ridge to the north in Florida is building and has now blocked its progress. Now, it has a more westerly component and has begun to slowly drift away. Remember, storms just can’t turn on a time. If it’s going to be a sharp turn, it has to stop first or at least slow down. The story has not changed much with the main impediments to development being land interaction and sheer. For the near term, there will be a little of each so while it should increase in strength, it won’t do so real quickly. Once it goes into the Gulf, then that’s where the intensification will be the greatest and while the official forecast has now been ramped

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0827 12Z

down to just 100 kts….but, even the NHC admits that the intensity forecasts are not that great. But, I think what they are hanging their hat on keeping a lid on the intensity is the possibility of a southwesterly shear on down the road. It’s also possible that at this point they don’t want to unduly scare the people of New Orleans. I mean they already have pointed a hurricane directly at them when the certainty of the track is not great…why pile on with an intensity that is also highly suspect. Here is the discussion:

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008 GUSTAV HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI. HOWEVER RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM GRAN PIEDRA CUBA SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS IN THE STORM DID NOT ACTUALLY SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT…BUT BASED ON THE TREND SEEN IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WE ASSUME THAT GUSTAV IS PROBABLY VERY NEAR THAT INTENSITY BY NOW. CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE SOME MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM BUT OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING…ONCE GUSTAV PULLS AWAY FROM HAITI. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH DAY 3. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AT DAYS 4 AND 5… SO WE SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOTWITHSTANDING…THERE IS VERY LITTLE…IF ANY…SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES. INDEED…IF ONE LOOKS AT THE LATEST WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE…IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THERE IS NEARLY AN EQUAL CHANCE THAT GUSTAV WILL BE A CATEGORY 1…CATEGORY 2…OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING AS IT INTERACTED WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LANDMASS OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. HOWEVER A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION…290/4…APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED THIS MORNING. A 500 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR FLORIDA WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD AND WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEGINNING AROUND DAY 3…THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD CAUSE GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT BY DAY 5. ONE SHOULD NOT READ MUCH INTO SUCH SHIFTS OF THE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE TYPICAL ERROR OF A 5-DAY PREDICTION IS OVER 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 18.8N 74.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 74.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 19.2N 76.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 19.3N 77.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 29/1200Z 19.9N 79.4W 80 KT 72HR VT 30/1200Z 21.5N 83.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 31/1200Z 24.5N 86.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 01/1200Z 28.5N 88.5W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME

Tropical Storm Gustav Track Unclear August 25, 2008

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in to street level, loop and navigate anywhere in the entire nation.

for a more recent update on Gustav, CLICK HERE

Tropical Storm Gustav NHC Forecast Track 5 pm 0825

First off, you could tell that Gustav was getting itself together quite nicely last night. Consequently, the NHC made it a depression while the Hurricane Hunters

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0825 18Z

were on the way. When they got there, the found a closed eyewall with a 30 nm eye and winds of 60 mph. In the afternoon, a second plane found that conditions had not changed and the satellite imagery is not quite as impressive. However, this may just be a resting period. The immediate future of Gustav will reside mainly with the track. The official track takes it now right up the middle of Cuba, which would tend to mess it up. But it also would mean an entry into the wide open Gulf of Mexico. This is a track farther south than the previous track, which the NHC admitted was somewhat suspect. They still mention caution regarding the track. The spaghetti models seem to have a general shift to the south with several really giving it a sharp turn

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0825 18Z

west before it gets to Cuba and running it south of the island. This would be in response to a building ridge over Florida. If this happens, Florida would be protected. If it were to track south of Cuba and not get too messed up with the big mountains of the eastern end of the island, then it would have great potential to develop as it moves toward the Yucatan Channel and the Gulf. Of the 16 models depicted in the spaghetti intensity graph, 10 make it a hurricane with four approaching Cat 3 status. But, as the NHC notes, the GFS isn’t too enthused with it and the UKMET totally loses interest. So, there are a variety of scenarios. My guess is that this guy is not going away and its near term life will be determined by Fidel Castro’s lovely island. Here is the 5pm discussion:

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

AFTER ITS RATHER RAPID INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION EARLIER TODAY…THE
CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV HAS BECOME A LITTLE
RAGGED-LOOKING…PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CENTER. THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A VERY SMALL AREA OF STRONG WINDS JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED
OF 67 KT. USING A 75 PERCENT RATIO OF SURFACE TO FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS APPROPRIATE FOR THE 925 MB FLIGHT ALTITUDE GIVES 50 KT FOR
THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ASSUMING THE CURRENTLY LESS-ORGANIZED
APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE IS MERELY TEMPORARY…STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY GIVEN THE APPARENTLY FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL AND OCEANIC
CONDITIONS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…THE STRENGTH OF GUSTAV
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE A STRONG FUNCTION OF HOW MUCH THE CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH LAND. INTERESTINGLY…THE GFS CONTINUES TO FAIL TO
SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL
MODEL SHOWS WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST…315/12. THE
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STEERING CURRENTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION OF GUSTAV TO
GRADUALLY BEND TOWARD THE LEFT AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST…WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE TO THE
LEFT OF THIS NHC FORECAST. NOTE THAT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS…AND ONE SHOULD
NOT FOCUS ON THESE PRECISE POINTS.

THE WIND RADII WERE DECREASED A LITTLE SINCE THE AIRCRAFT
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT GUSTAV IS A LITTLE SMALLER THAN EARLIER
ESTIMATED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 16.3N 71.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.2N 72.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.4N 73.3W 65 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.4N 74.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 20.2N 75.5W 65 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 28/1800Z 21.3N 77.5W 55 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 29/1800Z 22.0N 79.0W 50 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 30/1800Z 23.0N 81.0W 50 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH