NHC No Longer Tracking Fay; Attention Turns Toward Caribbean August 24, 2008

24-Hour Rain to 8AM Sunday

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in to street level, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

A couple of things of interest. The National Hurricane Center has lost interest and passed on the tracking of Fay to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. The HPC track goes into Louisiana or Mississippi and by Thursday actually takes it to near Lexington, KY. So, I stand by my previous assertion that rain will make its way into the Louisville Metro Area by the end of the week.

Note some of the rain totals. Tallahassee was listed at over 19 inches and I bet that it continues for part of Sunday.

0824 Invest 94L Spaghetti Model 12Z

The NHC is taking a harder look at Invest 94L that you and I have been eyeballing

0824 Invest 94L Spaghetti Intensity Graph

for a week. For the first time, they have inserted the word “depression” into the discussion. You will find the Invest 94L Spaghetti Model and the Invest 94L Spaghetti Intensity Graph. Do not take them as gospel. However, the trend this time around is for not as many models making it a hurricane as the data suggests many models advertise interaction with land masses. Invest 95L remains out there. It still appears to be more of a concern for mariners…unless you are a Seattle Mariner and then your concern is the American League West basement.

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 36 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL062008 1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008 …HEAVY RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH DESPITE A WEAKENING FAY… FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA…SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA…AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA…SOUTHERN ALABAMA…MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. AT 1000 AM CDT…15Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST…OR ABOUT 70 MILES..113 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI AND 25 MILES…40 KM… SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SUNDAY…BUT FAY COULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OR STALL ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL TAKE FAY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN LOUISIANA OR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH..48 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB…29.56 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 700 AM CDT …ALABAMA… VALLEY 0.4 NNW 7.12 CAMDEN 1.0 NNE 6.83 CLIO 0.2 SSW 6.38 ELFAULA 1.0 SSE 6.26 TROY 1.5 ESE 6.21 WETUMPKA 5.0 SE 6.14 CLOPTON 0.1 SW 5.96 LADONIA 13.2 SSW 5.90 ALEXANDER CITY 10.0 SW 5.77 PINE HILL 3.6 WSW 5.76 SYLACAUGS 9.2 S 5.65 TROY 5.60 OZARK 5.36 DOTHAN 4.17 AUBURN 4.04 MONTGOMERY 3.81 BIRMINGHAM 3.28 ALABASTER 2.77 ANNISTON 2.14 EVERGREEN 2.14 TUSCALOOSA 2.10 …FLORIDA… MELBOURNE BEACH 3.9 SSE 25.28 COCOA BEACH 24.38 CAPE CANAVERAL 22.83 DELTONA 22.69 SATELLITE BEACH 22.40 PALM SHORES 1.4 W 21.44 DELTONA 2.9 SE 20.94 MELBOURNE 7.0 NW 20.57 ORANGE CITY 19.81 HILLIARD 5.4 NW 19.70 TALLAHASSEE 5.7 SE 19.17 MALABAR 2.9 NNW 19.00 WACISSA 1.1 SW 18.09 SANFORD 0.4 ENE 18.03 LAKEWOOD PARK 0.5 SW 17.90 DE LAND 4.5 NW 17.20 COCOA 5.8 NW 16.77 MICCO 4.5 NW 16.26 LONGWOOD 2.3 WNW 15.70 EUSTIS 1.2 SE 15.56 HOBE SOUND 3.9 NW 15.01 SANFORD 14.97 PALM BAY 14.89 NORTH MAPLES 7.3 E 14.42 JACKSONVILLE 7.3 SW 14.40 DE LEON SPRINGS 0.4 SE 14.23 FORT PIERCE 11.58 JACKSONVILLE 11.58 …GEORGIA… VALDOSTA (MOODY AFB) 8.54 ALBANY 4.92 SAVANNAH (HUNTER AAF) 4.41 ALMA 3.99 FORT BENNING 3.66 SAVANNAH 3.16 COLUMBUS 3.15 BRUNSWICK 2.89 MACON 1.49 …LOUISIANA… LAFAYETTE 1.31 NEW ORLEANS (NEW) 1.24 BOOTHVILLE 1.16 …MISSISSIPPI… JACKSON (WFO) 3.92 MERIDIAN (NAS/MCCAIN) 3.74 COLUMBUS (AFB) 3.39 MERIDIAN 2.54 GREENWOOD 2.43 JACKSON 2.40 NATCHEZ 2.15 VICKSBURG 1.37 TUPELO 1.31 …SOUTH CAROLINA… BEAUFORT 5.34 CHARLESTON 2.67 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI…ALABAMA…EASTERN LOUISIANA…WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING….WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. LIGHTER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN TENNESSEE… EASTERN GEORGIA… EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION…32.0 N…89.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 400 PM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR WEATHER.GOV FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. MUSHER FORECAST POSITIONS INITIAL 24/1500Z 31.6N 88.2W 12HR VT 25/0000Z 31.1N 91.1W 24HR VT 25/1200Z 31.0N 90.9W 36HR VT 26/0000Z 31.3N 90.3W 48HR VT 26/1200Z 31.8N 89.6W 72HR VT 27/1200Z 33.9N 87.7W…REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/1200Z 38.0N 84.0W…REMNANT LOW

Tropical Storm Fay And Two Little Buddies August 23, 2008

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

Fay 5PM NHC fcst NRL Graphic

I’m not going to do too much on Fay this time around as the story is about

US Tropical Cyclone Deaths

the same which is the intensity of the storm is pretty much a moot point as the rain totals will be the big story and the greatest threat to life.  You will find a pie chart that shows that statistically, the greatest cause of fatalities in the US from tropical cyclones is inland, freshwater flooding.  There have numerous deaths in Florida and I would think that the total will increase.  A couple of feet of rain in the panhandle will rival that of the east central peninsula and similar totals are probably not out of the question for South Alabama, South and Central Mississippi and Alabama.  A front will come down from the northwest on Sunday and that will hold the moisture from Fay in the Dixie states.  Some sinking air around the storm will serve to suppress showers that might otherwise be triggered by the front in the Louisville area.  But, there might be a few on Sunday or one or two on Tuesday.  Its really not until the end of the week that another approaching front will help draw up the moisture from what is left of Fay.  

There are two other systems of interest out there. If you look at the satellite photo of Invest 94L it doesnt look too good but its trying to get itself back together an may prove to be a problem in the Caribbean.  Invest 95L has a satellite photo that suggests it may have a decent chance of beating its longer living brother, 94L, to become Gustav. 

Several models continue to make that mainly a storm of maritime concerns, but it certainly bears watching as its a long way out and a lot of things can change over the next week.  Here is the 5PM Fay National Hurricane Center Discussion.  For spaghetti models, see the previous post.

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

SURFACE…RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF FAY IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS…THE CIRCULATION IS
GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED MOSTLY TO
CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NOW THAT THE CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER…STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FAY
COULD REMAIN MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. ALTHOUGH BY
THEN…THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE A DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT
LOW…IT WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS
PATH AND THE EMPHASIS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THESE RAINS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/2100Z 30.6N  86.3W    40 KT
12HR VT     24/0600Z 30.9N  87.5W    35 KT…INLAND
24HR VT     24/1800Z 31.2N  89.7W    30 KT…INLAND
36HR VT     25/0600Z 31.0N  91.0W    30 KT…INLAND
48HR VT     25/1800Z 31.0N  91.0W    25 KT…INLAND
72HR VT     26/1800Z 31.0N  91.0W    25 KT…INLAND
96HR VT     27/1800Z 32.5N  90.0W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     28/1800Z 34.5N  89.0W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Tropical Storm Fay No Sunshine For Florida August 23, 2008

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

Fay NHC track 11AM Saturday 0823

Fay will continue to move along the Gulf Coast and bring lots and lots of rain all

Florida 7 Day Rain Thru 7AM 0823

the way to New Orleans.  Rainfall in the panhandle is beginning to rival that of the east central coast and the forecast continues to call for up to 20 inches by the time its all said and done.  The rainfall map is for the last 7 days ending at 7AM EDT on Saturday so the numbers over the panhandle will be greatly increased by the end of the day.  At that time, the official forecast has it moving northeast while it finally fades to a depression or remnant low. This makes sense

Tropical Storm Fay Spaghetti Model 12Z 0823

as there is a southwesterly flow from Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.  We’re hoping that some of that rain gets up into the Ohio Valley by late in the

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model 12Z 0823

week.  Many of the model tracks on the spaghetti graph say just that but the official forecast has it rain itself out over North Mississippi.  Invest 94L is still out there and is looking better organized after a couple of tough days. That guy will go into the Caribbean.  Invest 95L is also developing behind it and right now the spaghetti models generally take it north of the Islands. The ETA makes it a storm or weak hurricane moving toward Bermuda. But that’s a long way out and there is plenty of time for other data to come in and contradict that.

Invest 95L spaghetti Model 12Z 0823

Tropical Storm Fay Back Offshore; Invest 94L Still Out there; Technical problems August 23, 2008

Florida 7 day rainfall thru 12Z 0822

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

I’m having all sorts of problems with the server or its my operator error but the thumbnails are not enlarging for some reason. So, I’m going with the full size for now, even though you don’t get as full a graphic as

5 day rainfall forecast

otherwise. Fay has gone back offshore as I thought that it would, though, pragmatically that doesn’t change much except to just give it all the more time to have the core be close to the moisture source. Rain will be the big issue. The rainfall forecast for the Florida Panhandle to South Alabama according to the Hydrometerological Prediction Center is for around 20 inches. The NWS offices in that region are likening the event to Hurricane Dora in the 1960′s that followed a similar path, though I suspect that development will make things worse. I’m including at the bottom of the page the latest spaghetti models for Invest 94L. There is also Invest 95L out there. Both of these systems will need to be monitored but 94L is the closest.

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008 THE CENTER OF FAY CROSSED THE COAST OF THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR KEATON BEACH AT ABOUT 2200 UTC…EMERGING OVER APALACHEE BAY IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CIRCULATION CENTER ITSELF IS NOT ESPECIALLY WELL-DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY…BUT A POTENT NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER WATER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THIS BAND ARE ABOUT 45 KT…SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. AN EXPANSIVE RAIN SHIELD EXTENDS WELL INLAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER…AND WHILE WINDS ARE GUSTY IN THOSE REGIONS…SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING INLAND. THE AIRCRAFT FIXES LEAD TO AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/7…AS FAY LUMBERS ALONG TO THE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THAT RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORCE FAY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT SPEED SIMILAR TO THAT CURRENTLY OBSERVED. AS A RESULT…FAY WILL BE SKIRTING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…ALABAMA…AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER…MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE AGAIN…AND VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ENSUE REGARDING WHERE AND HOW FAST A WEAKENING FAY WILL GO. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW RELATIVELY LITTLE NET MOTION ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ONLY SHOWS A SLOW BEND TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CENTER OF FAY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO…WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT A TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON TO FORECAST WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…GIVEN THAT FAY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AND APPEARS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH IN STRUCTURE. BEYOND 24 HOURS…INCREASING LAND INTERACTION AND A GRADUAL RAMPING UP OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST OF FAY TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REQUIRES A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS. REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK…FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 29.7N 84.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 29.8N 85.3W 45 KT…NEAR COAST 24HR VT 24/0000Z 30.1N 86.9W 45 KT…OVER WATER 36HR VT 24/1200Z 30.5N 88.5W 40 KT…NEAR COAST 48HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 90.0W 35 KT…INLAND 72HR VT 26/0000Z 30.5N 91.0W 30 KT…INLAND 96HR VT 27/0000Z 31.5N 91.5W 25 KT…INLAND 120HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 90.5W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB

Invest 94L Spaghetti track 00Z 0823

Tropical Storm Fay May End Up in the Record Books August 22, 2008

for a more recent update on fay and the other systems CLICK HERE.

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

Spaghetti graph keep the storm along the Gulf Coast. That would suggest

Fay Spaghetti Model 0822 18Z

Fay 5PM Forecast Track 5pm 0822

that the big fat ridge is getting bigger and fatter. As it stands, the NHC follows a track similar to what has been forecast with a curvature and rain out in northern Louisiana and North Mississipppi. But, for days now I have

suggested that the legacy of this storm would be rain and that has far exceeded even my expectations. The National Weather Service is warning people of the Florida Panhandle that this storm could cause flooding akin to what happened in 1964 with Dora that followed a similar path. I would suggest that, if

rain totals are the same then the flooding would be greater given there has been more urban development

US Tropical Cyclone Deaths

in the various watersheds. If you look at the pie chart, you will see that inland, freshwater flooding is the greatest cause of fatalities with tropical cyclones in the United States. Even more than the storm surge. The media tends to focus on the winds but often, a weaker tropical storm or even depression has caused tremendous damage. Recently, the Houston area was inundated by Allison,

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model

 

 

Here is the 5pm Aug 22 Discussion from the National Hurricane Center for Fay:

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008 THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN RAIN BANDS MOSTLY OVER WATER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER…FAY COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD HOLD FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS…FORCING FAY TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THEREAFTER…STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FAY COULD BEGIN TO MEANDER. BY THEN…FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW. REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK…FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 29.8N 83.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 29.9N 84.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 30.2N 85.9W 35 KT…INLAND 36HR VT 24/0600Z 30.5N 87.5W 30 KT…INLAND 48HR VT 24/1800Z 31.0N 89.0W 30 KT…INLAND 72HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 90.0W 30 KT…INLAND 96HR VT 26/1800Z 31.5N 90.5W 25 KT…INLAND 120HR VT 27/1800Z 32.0N 91.6W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tropical Storm Fay To Lurk All Weekend; Don’t Forget the Rest of the Atlantic August 22, 2008

for a more recent update on fay and other tropical systems, CLICK HERE

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

NHC Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Track 11pm 0821

Fay continues to be a slow-poke. That is not good news. Early Friday morning it was

Tropical Storm Fay Spaghetti Model 0822 00Z

still hanging around a biker-bar in Daytona. While the official track takes it along the Florida Panhandle coast, do not be surprised to see this guy go over the Gulf for at least some time. Probably won’t amount to much except its just more time over a moisture source. The 00Z 5 day QPF from the Hydrological Prediction Center, there is a huge area expected to get 15 to 20 inches of rain from well east of Tallahassee to Mobile. The bullitt point is set at 21 inches. Otherwise, there’s nothing much different to report. Some of the tracks on

5 Day Rain Total Forecast (QPF) 0822 00Z

the spaghetti models are just nuts, but interesting.

You know what, when no one was looking, the National Hurricane Center suddenly

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model 0822 00Z

started saying that the area known as Invest 94L may start getting into an area that is conducive for development. On the one hand, 7 out of 11 models in the spaghetti intensity graph take it to hurricane status. On the other hand, the intensity graph has been indicating a developing storm for quite some time and it hasn’t happened. Now, this either means that the models are unreliable and do not have a handle on the storm at this point or that the models

Invest 94L Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0822 00Z

have been on to something for some time because several have been wanting to develop the storm and its just a timing issue. One thing that is for certain is that this guy will bear monitoring and that the spaghetti models have all shifted the track south from the former cluster of tracks. Also, there is now a Invest 95L, which is a strong tropical wave behind 94L. Nothing too unusual…this is the heart of the North Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Florida Wants Tropical Storm Fay To Get Lost; Find the Lost State of Franklin August 22, 2008

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

NHC Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Track 5PM 0821

Tropical Storm Fay is pretty much following the script after several days of improvising on its own
Unfortunately, the storyline is for the storm to mainly move slowly around a big fat

Fay Spaghetti Model 0812 18Z

ridge of high pressure in the Northeast and that means a slow trek along I-10. From Jacksonville to Pensacola, the storm will crawl at 5 (maybe 10 mph) for the next several days. Rain totals will be extreme as the satellite imagery is quite impressive, indicating that it still has a good structure in that its outflow pattern remains generally intact. Already, the slow-poke Fay brought over 2 feet of rain to east-central Florida and now it will do the same for North Florida. If you click on the image to the left, you will find the 5 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) from the Hydrological Prediction Center. You will find a couple of areas that stand out….over 16 inches in

5 Day QPF Florida

North Florida and South Georgia while the Panhandle faces the prospects of up to 20 inches. For added measure, its possible that at least part of the large circulation of the storm may wander offshore in the Gulf for a time and that will help to at least maintain some energy to the point that it may regain Tropical Storm status after it weakens a bit.

For Louisville, we had hoped that the moisture from Fay would merge with a trof in the Mississippi Valley and get drawn around the high as a trof comes in from the Northwest and weakens the ridge, allowing for the moisture to come to the Ohio Valley. But, as had been mentioned before, there is the very real possibility that it gets stuck in northern Mississippi and rains itself out there, bringing no relief here.  The official forecast track and the spaghetti models are coming into alignment for this scenario. We are still hoping for some moisture to come around by midweek.   But, I suspect that the Dixie states will not hog all of the rain and they will share some with us eventually.

On This Date In History: In Colonial times, the Crown made the rules and in 1763, England decreed that no settlements be made west of the Appalachian mountains. Nevertheless, frontiersman refused to abandon their outposts…remember Daniel Boone was running around what is now Kentucky in the 1760s. In 1772, hundreds, if not thousands, of folks in the mountains of what is now eastern Tennessee formed the Watauga Association, mainly for defense against the Indians. When the Revolution came about, the used their expert aim with their long rifles to defeat the British at King’s Mountain, South Carolina. Their leader was John ” Nolichucky Jack” Sevier. After the Revolution, the state of North Carolina wasn’t any nicer to the region than the king had been as they taxed the Wataugans “grievously….without enjoying the blessings of it.”

In 1784, North Carolina offered to cede the Tennessee lands to the federal government but the Wataugans prepared for a convention on this date in 1784 which led to a vote to found the 14th state of Franklin. Even though the new “state” was named for him, Ben Franklin declined an invitation to visit but Thomas Jefferson approved of the move. They even elected John Sevier as Governor. But, they got a little ahead of themselves as only 7 of the 13 states agreed with Jefferson and the Constitution said that they needed 9 to gain statehood. Meanwhile, back in Raleigh, the state of North Carolina took their western lands back and arrested Sevier as a traitor! The state of Franklin continued to operate on its own until North Carolina gave in, pardoned Sevier and forgave the settlers back taxes. Franklin became part of the Tennessee territory and when the territory was admitted to the Union in 1796, Sevier was elected its first Governor.

The folks in Eastern Tennessee maintained their independence though. During the Civil War, the mountain folks of East Tennesee remained loyal to the Union and proved to be a real thorn in the side of the Confederacy, much as they had to the King and to North Carolina. If the US was ever invaded, I have thought there were parts of the country that would never be conquered and Eastern Tennessee is near the top of my list.

Tropical Storm Fay One Tough Storm August 21, 2008

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

11PM Wed Night NHC Tropical Storm Fay Forecast track

Fay is a rather interesting thing. I’ve been telling you since the storm was around

Fay Spaghetti Model 0821 00Z

Haiti that it had a good structure and the only thing standing in its way from being a formidable storm was land. Well, the storm continues to have a pretty good structure, according to the satellite and radar depictions, in spite of spending almost its entire life interacting with land. It actually gained strength over Florida dropping to 988 mb and winds increasing to 65 mph. We have some thought that this was over Lake Okeechobee when it happened and that may have been a causation, though I’m not convinced that relatively small body of water (in relation to the storm) could do that all by itself. In any event, it even developed a small eye. Then it slowed down over land and started to fill and the pressure rise. When it finally emerged just offshore, it started to get stronger again with the pressure back down to 994mb as it just basically sits about 20 miles offshore.

As I have noted previously, because of the slow movement, that has allowed the big fat high pressure ridge to the north to build in. So, its going to get shoved back to the west before getting too far off the Florida Coast. That has to happen. Beyond that, there are still many questions. One that is not a question is that there will be lots of rain. It should ease up somewhat in Central Florida but not before they get 2-3 feet of rain. I betcha north Florida and South Georgia get some 10-15 inches at least. But with the ridge building, I have been watching to see if this guy doesn’t get shoved back into the Gulf of Mexico for a time. The boys at the NHC seem to be coming around to that because, not only have they shoved the official forecast farther south to the Gulf Coast, but they also mention the potential for the storm to go back to the Gulf. While this would cause it to strengthen some, I doubt if it would get to a hurricane as a couple of the models depicted in the Spaghetti Intensity Graph indicates. I mean, it’s never been a hurricane before. I still think that this guy will traverse the Dixie States and eventually have an opportunity to move up the Mississippi and Ohio Valley our way be midweek. Folks in the South should hope I am right. The alternative may be for it to sit in Northern Mississippi and rain itself out.

As for disturbance Invest 94L, It doesnt look so good right now but the previous spaghetti forecast maps and spaghetti intensity graph pretty much mirrors the 00Z 21Aug 2008 stuff so I’m not bothering to say more at this time. Here is the NHC 11pm Wednesday Discussion for Fay:

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 FAY HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY WHILE CENTERED ONLY ABOUT 20 N MI OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA…AS SHOWN BY NWS WSR-88D RADAR DATA AND CONFIRMED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE STORM HAS OCCASIONALLY LOOKED FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE…WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND WHAT ESSENTIALLY QUALIFIES AS AN EYE. WSR-88D VELOCITIES ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THE MOST RECENT COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS SETTLED FOR NOW AT 994 MB. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE FAY IN A FEW HOURS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF FAY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD GET FAY MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD…ALTHOUGH SLOWLY…WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA…SINCE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING…THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TOMORROW…GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SAGGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH…AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST POINTS LISTED BELOW DO NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT…THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK HUGS THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IF FAY ENDS UP MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST…AND SPENDS MORE TIME THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF…IT COULD BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH A COUPLE OF DAYS FROM NOW. IF…HOWEVER…IT MOVES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK…IT COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK…FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 28.9N 80.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 29.2N 81.2W 50 KT…INLAND 24HR VT 22/0000Z 29.4N 82.2W 40 KT…INLAND 36HR VT 22/1200Z 29.7N 83.3W 30 KT…INLAND 48HR VT 23/0000Z 30.1N 84.6W 30 KT…INLAND 72HR VT 24/0000Z 31.0N 87.0W 30 KT…INLAND 96HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 89.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/0000Z 32.5N 90.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB

Tropical Storm Fay The Rainmaker; Invest 94L Lurking August 20, 2008

for a more recent update on fay and other items of interest in the tropics, CLICK HERE

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

Official NHC Fay forecast track 5pm 0820

Fay is behaving badly, but not unexpectedly. I told you several days ago that I

Fay Spaghetti model track 18Z 0820

figured that the legacy would be heavy rain and that is bearing out.  I had thought though that it would be about 75 to 100 miles farther north, and that may still bear out.  It slowed so much over the peninsula that while it was dawdling, the ridge was building in.  Now, it will start to be influenced from the ridge in a place farther south than the previous official forecast.  While the official track takes it slowly across north Florida and to the northwest, it is not totally out of the question for the storm to move west and re-emerge over the Gulf of Mexico before swinging back to the west-northwest and northwest.  It still has a pretty good looking structure on satellite and pressures started dropping and winds increasing the second it got offshoe, but the official forecast is for it to run out of time and stay below the hurricane threshold before moving back ashore.  While the general scenario is becoming relatively clear and it will continue to be a big rain maker with winds having a marginal effect except for the occasional tornado, the exact track over the next 48 hours is still beyond the ability of mankind.  You can tell the level of uncertainty in that the “cone” is actually a giant circle on the official forecast track. Here is the discussion from the boys at the Melbourne office of the NWS.  Hydrometeorological models indicate that 30 inches of rain could fall in some areas.  The map above is the late afternoon storm totals of the region.  Some areas northwest of Melbourne have received over 24″ of rain and Melbourne had officially received over 16″. 

DISCUSSION…

…EXTREME FLOODING DANGER CONTINUING IN SOUTH BREVARD…
…TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED!!!…

TONIGHT…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH
AND ACCORDING TO THE WIND TOWERS AT CAPE CANAVERAL…THE CENTER WAS
JUST ALONG THE NORTH SIDE AT THE COAST.  HOWEVER…A CONVERGENCE
ZONE CONTINUED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND WAS RESULTING IN A
PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.  AMOUNTS ARE
BEING MEASURED IN FEET…WITH ONE REPORT IN NORTH MELBOURNE OVER 24
INCHES AND SEVERAL OTHER SPOTS AROUND MELBOURNE AT 16-18 INCHES.
THESE RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EASILY RECORDS AND WILL TURN OUT TO BE
HISTORICAL FOR THE LOCAL AREA.  THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER ANTICIPATES STORM TOTALS NEAR 30 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE RESULTING FLOODING HAS PRODUCED LIFE THREATENING FLOODING IN
SOUTH BREVARD…ESPECIALLY MELBOURNE…AND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARD IN THE SHORT TERM.

THE CENTER OF FAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING…WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST.

Tropical Disburbance 94L:  It is important to note that the National Hurricane Center is not showing

Invest 94L Spaghetti Intensity Graph 18Z 0820

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model 18Z 0820

much enthusiasm for this feature at this time, making statements that slow development is possible. The Spaghetti models above continue to indicate a motion taking it north of the islands.  However, it is interesting to note that the spaghetti model intensity graphs continues to show some models wanting to take it to hurricane status, with a few even to category II.  It will be interesting to see how this guy develops.

Tropical Storm Fay Spends Too Much Time With Mickey and Goofy August 20, 2008

For an Interactive Radar to track Fay click here.

08/20 NHC Fcst Track NRL Graphic

Fay’s slow movement continues and because of that, it spent too much time at

08/20 Fay Spaghetti Track Model 12Z

Disney World. It’s slow pace not only weakened it further but will utltimately help to limit its time back over water as the ridge is building in. In general that takes the chances of it becoming a hurricane off the board. Though they discount the possibility, the fact that the NHC mentioned that Fay may return to the Gulf leads me to believe that they have considered the same scenario that I outlined in a previous post. Here is the NHC discussion for 11AM.

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 FAY HAS BEEN OVER LAND LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IT HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER…THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS PRIMARILY OVER WATER AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THE SFMR. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING OVER WATER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME RAINBANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER AS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER FORECASTS FAY TO BECOME A HURRICANE DUE TO THE CYCLONE’S INTERACTION WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT ALLOWS SOME STRENGTHENING. ONLY THE HWRF INSISTS ON INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. A LITTLE DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT WOULD KEEP THE CENTER OVER LAND AND INTENSIFICATION WILL NOT OCCUR. FAY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH…ABOUT 3 KNOTS… WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF FAY AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MOVES THE CYCLONE INLAND UNTIL IT BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. IN THE LONG RANGE…SOME GLOBAL MODELS TURN FAY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY YET GIVEN THE GOOD PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 28.6N 80.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 29.0N 80.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 29.4N 81.2W 50 KT…INLAND 36HR VT 22/0000Z 29.8N 82.2W 35 KT…INLAND 48HR VT 22/1200Z 30.0N 83.5W 30 KT…INLAND 72HR VT 23/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1200Z 31.0N 86.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 25/1200Z 32.0N 88.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 FAY HAS BEEN OVER LAND LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IT HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER…THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS PRIMARILY OVER WATER AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THE SFMR. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING OVER WATER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME RAINBANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER AS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER FORECASTS FAY TO BECOME A HURRICANE DUE TO THE CYCLONE’S INTERACTION WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT ALLOWS SOME STRENGTHENING. ONLY THE HWRF INSISTS ON INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. A LITTLE DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT WOULD KEEP THE CENTER OVER LAND AND INTENSIFICATION WILL NOT OCCUR. FAY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH…ABOUT 3 KNOTS… WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF FAY AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MOVES THE CYCLONE INLAND UNTIL IT BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. IN THE LONG RANGE…SOME GLOBAL MODELS TURN FAY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY YET GIVEN THE GOOD PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 28.6N 80.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 29.0N 80.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 29.4N 81.2W 50 KT…INLAND 36HR VT 22/0000Z 29.8N 82.2W 35 KT…INLAND 48HR VT 22/1200Z 30.0N 83.5W 30 KT…INLAND 72HR VT 23/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1200Z 31.0N 86.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 25/1200Z 32.0N 88.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA