To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.
NHC Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Track 5PM 0821
Tropical Storm Fay is pretty much following the script after several days of improvising on its own
Unfortunately, the storyline is for the storm to mainly move slowly around a big fat
Fay Spaghetti Model 0812 18Z
ridge of high pressure in the Northeast and that means a slow trek along I-10. From Jacksonville to Pensacola, the storm will crawl at 5 (maybe 10 mph) for the next several days. Rain totals will be extreme as the satellite imagery is quite impressive, indicating that it still has a good structure in that its outflow pattern remains generally intact. Already, the slow-poke Fay brought over 2 feet of rain to east-central Florida and now it will do the same for North Florida. If you click on the image to the left, you will find the 5 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) from the Hydrological Prediction Center. You will find a couple of areas that stand out….over 16 inches in
5 Day QPF Florida
North Florida and South Georgia while the Panhandle faces the prospects of up to 20 inches. For added measure, its possible that at least part of the large circulation of the storm may wander offshore in the Gulf for a time and that will help to at least maintain some energy to the point that it may regain Tropical Storm status after it weakens a bit.
For Louisville, we had hoped that the moisture from Fay would merge with a trof in the Mississippi Valley and get drawn around the high as a trof comes in from the Northwest and weakens the ridge, allowing for the moisture to come to the Ohio Valley. But, as had been mentioned before, there is the very real possibility that it gets stuck in northern Mississippi and rains itself out there, bringing no relief here. The official forecast track and the spaghetti models are coming into alignment for this scenario. We are still hoping for some moisture to come around by midweek. But, I suspect that the Dixie states will not hog all of the rain and they will share some with us eventually.
On This Date In History: In Colonial times, the Crown made the rules and in 1763, England decreed that no settlements be made west of the Appalachian mountains. Nevertheless, frontiersman refused to abandon their outposts…remember Daniel Boone was running around what is now Kentucky in the 1760s. In 1772, hundreds, if not thousands, of folks in the mountains of what is now eastern Tennessee formed the Watauga Association, mainly for defense against the Indians. When the Revolution came about, the used their expert aim with their long rifles to defeat the British at King’s Mountain, South Carolina. Their leader was John ” Nolichucky Jack” Sevier. After the Revolution, the state of North Carolina wasn’t any nicer to the region than the king had been as they taxed the Wataugans “grievously….without enjoying the blessings of it.”
In 1784, North Carolina offered to cede the Tennessee lands to the federal government but the Wataugans prepared for a convention on this date in 1784 which led to a vote to found the 14th state of Franklin. Even though the new “state” was named for him, Ben Franklin declined an invitation to visit but Thomas Jefferson approved of the move. They even elected John Sevier as Governor. But, they got a little ahead of themselves as only 7 of the 13 states agreed with Jefferson and the Constitution said that they needed 9 to gain statehood. Meanwhile, back in Raleigh, the state of North Carolina took their western lands back and arrested Sevier as a traitor! The state of Franklin continued to operate on its own until North Carolina gave in, pardoned Sevier and forgave the settlers back taxes. Franklin became part of the Tennessee territory and when the territory was admitted to the Union in 1796, Sevier was elected its first Governor.
The folks in Eastern Tennessee maintained their independence though. During the Civil War, the mountain folks of East Tennesee remained loyal to the Union and proved to be a real thorn in the side of the Confederacy, much as they had to the King and to North Carolina. If the US was ever invaded, I have thought there were parts of the country that would never be conquered and Eastern Tennessee is near the top of my list.