Tropical Storm Fay No Sunshine For Florida August 23, 2008

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

Fay NHC track 11AM Saturday 0823

Fay will continue to move along the Gulf Coast and bring lots and lots of rain all

Florida 7 Day Rain Thru 7AM 0823

the way to New Orleans.  Rainfall in the panhandle is beginning to rival that of the east central coast and the forecast continues to call for up to 20 inches by the time its all said and done.  The rainfall map is for the last 7 days ending at 7AM EDT on Saturday so the numbers over the panhandle will be greatly increased by the end of the day.  At that time, the official forecast has it moving northeast while it finally fades to a depression or remnant low. This makes sense

Tropical Storm Fay Spaghetti Model 12Z 0823

as there is a southwesterly flow from Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.  We’re hoping that some of that rain gets up into the Ohio Valley by late in the

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model 12Z 0823

week.  Many of the model tracks on the spaghetti graph say just that but the official forecast has it rain itself out over North Mississippi.  Invest 94L is still out there and is looking better organized after a couple of tough days. That guy will go into the Caribbean.  Invest 95L is also developing behind it and right now the spaghetti models generally take it north of the Islands. The ETA makes it a storm or weak hurricane moving toward Bermuda. But that’s a long way out and there is plenty of time for other data to come in and contradict that.

Invest 95L spaghetti Model 12Z 0823

Tropical Storm Fay To Lurk All Weekend; Don’t Forget the Rest of the Atlantic August 22, 2008

for a more recent update on fay and other tropical systems, CLICK HERE

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

NHC Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Track 11pm 0821

Fay continues to be a slow-poke. That is not good news. Early Friday morning it was

Tropical Storm Fay Spaghetti Model 0822 00Z

still hanging around a biker-bar in Daytona. While the official track takes it along the Florida Panhandle coast, do not be surprised to see this guy go over the Gulf for at least some time. Probably won’t amount to much except its just more time over a moisture source. The 00Z 5 day QPF from the Hydrological Prediction Center, there is a huge area expected to get 15 to 20 inches of rain from well east of Tallahassee to Mobile. The bullitt point is set at 21 inches. Otherwise, there’s nothing much different to report. Some of the tracks on

5 Day Rain Total Forecast (QPF) 0822 00Z

the spaghetti models are just nuts, but interesting.

You know what, when no one was looking, the National Hurricane Center suddenly

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model 0822 00Z

started saying that the area known as Invest 94L may start getting into an area that is conducive for development. On the one hand, 7 out of 11 models in the spaghetti intensity graph take it to hurricane status. On the other hand, the intensity graph has been indicating a developing storm for quite some time and it hasn’t happened. Now, this either means that the models are unreliable and do not have a handle on the storm at this point or that the models

Invest 94L Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0822 00Z

have been on to something for some time because several have been wanting to develop the storm and its just a timing issue. One thing that is for certain is that this guy will bear monitoring and that the spaghetti models have all shifted the track south from the former cluster of tracks. Also, there is now a Invest 95L, which is a strong tropical wave behind 94L. Nothing too unusual…this is the heart of the North Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Florida Wants Tropical Storm Fay To Get Lost; Find the Lost State of Franklin August 22, 2008

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

NHC Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Track 5PM 0821

Tropical Storm Fay is pretty much following the script after several days of improvising on its own
Unfortunately, the storyline is for the storm to mainly move slowly around a big fat

Fay Spaghetti Model 0812 18Z

ridge of high pressure in the Northeast and that means a slow trek along I-10. From Jacksonville to Pensacola, the storm will crawl at 5 (maybe 10 mph) for the next several days. Rain totals will be extreme as the satellite imagery is quite impressive, indicating that it still has a good structure in that its outflow pattern remains generally intact. Already, the slow-poke Fay brought over 2 feet of rain to east-central Florida and now it will do the same for North Florida. If you click on the image to the left, you will find the 5 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) from the Hydrological Prediction Center. You will find a couple of areas that stand out….over 16 inches in

5 Day QPF Florida

North Florida and South Georgia while the Panhandle faces the prospects of up to 20 inches. For added measure, its possible that at least part of the large circulation of the storm may wander offshore in the Gulf for a time and that will help to at least maintain some energy to the point that it may regain Tropical Storm status after it weakens a bit.

For Louisville, we had hoped that the moisture from Fay would merge with a trof in the Mississippi Valley and get drawn around the high as a trof comes in from the Northwest and weakens the ridge, allowing for the moisture to come to the Ohio Valley. But, as had been mentioned before, there is the very real possibility that it gets stuck in northern Mississippi and rains itself out there, bringing no relief here.  The official forecast track and the spaghetti models are coming into alignment for this scenario. We are still hoping for some moisture to come around by midweek.   But, I suspect that the Dixie states will not hog all of the rain and they will share some with us eventually.

On This Date In History: In Colonial times, the Crown made the rules and in 1763, England decreed that no settlements be made west of the Appalachian mountains. Nevertheless, frontiersman refused to abandon their outposts…remember Daniel Boone was running around what is now Kentucky in the 1760s. In 1772, hundreds, if not thousands, of folks in the mountains of what is now eastern Tennessee formed the Watauga Association, mainly for defense against the Indians. When the Revolution came about, the used their expert aim with their long rifles to defeat the British at King’s Mountain, South Carolina. Their leader was John ” Nolichucky Jack” Sevier. After the Revolution, the state of North Carolina wasn’t any nicer to the region than the king had been as they taxed the Wataugans “grievously….without enjoying the blessings of it.”

In 1784, North Carolina offered to cede the Tennessee lands to the federal government but the Wataugans prepared for a convention on this date in 1784 which led to a vote to found the 14th state of Franklin. Even though the new “state” was named for him, Ben Franklin declined an invitation to visit but Thomas Jefferson approved of the move. They even elected John Sevier as Governor. But, they got a little ahead of themselves as only 7 of the 13 states agreed with Jefferson and the Constitution said that they needed 9 to gain statehood. Meanwhile, back in Raleigh, the state of North Carolina took their western lands back and arrested Sevier as a traitor! The state of Franklin continued to operate on its own until North Carolina gave in, pardoned Sevier and forgave the settlers back taxes. Franklin became part of the Tennessee territory and when the territory was admitted to the Union in 1796, Sevier was elected its first Governor.

The folks in Eastern Tennessee maintained their independence though. During the Civil War, the mountain folks of East Tennesee remained loyal to the Union and proved to be a real thorn in the side of the Confederacy, much as they had to the King and to North Carolina. If the US was ever invaded, I have thought there were parts of the country that would never be conquered and Eastern Tennessee is near the top of my list.

Tropical Storm Fay One Tough Storm August 21, 2008

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

11PM Wed Night NHC Tropical Storm Fay Forecast track

Fay is a rather interesting thing. I’ve been telling you since the storm was around

Fay Spaghetti Model 0821 00Z

Haiti that it had a good structure and the only thing standing in its way from being a formidable storm was land. Well, the storm continues to have a pretty good structure, according to the satellite and radar depictions, in spite of spending almost its entire life interacting with land. It actually gained strength over Florida dropping to 988 mb and winds increasing to 65 mph. We have some thought that this was over Lake Okeechobee when it happened and that may have been a causation, though I’m not convinced that relatively small body of water (in relation to the storm) could do that all by itself. In any event, it even developed a small eye. Then it slowed down over land and started to fill and the pressure rise. When it finally emerged just offshore, it started to get stronger again with the pressure back down to 994mb as it just basically sits about 20 miles offshore.

As I have noted previously, because of the slow movement, that has allowed the big fat high pressure ridge to the north to build in. So, its going to get shoved back to the west before getting too far off the Florida Coast. That has to happen. Beyond that, there are still many questions. One that is not a question is that there will be lots of rain. It should ease up somewhat in Central Florida but not before they get 2-3 feet of rain. I betcha north Florida and South Georgia get some 10-15 inches at least. But with the ridge building, I have been watching to see if this guy doesn’t get shoved back into the Gulf of Mexico for a time. The boys at the NHC seem to be coming around to that because, not only have they shoved the official forecast farther south to the Gulf Coast, but they also mention the potential for the storm to go back to the Gulf. While this would cause it to strengthen some, I doubt if it would get to a hurricane as a couple of the models depicted in the Spaghetti Intensity Graph indicates. I mean, it’s never been a hurricane before. I still think that this guy will traverse the Dixie States and eventually have an opportunity to move up the Mississippi and Ohio Valley our way be midweek. Folks in the South should hope I am right. The alternative may be for it to sit in Northern Mississippi and rain itself out.

As for disturbance Invest 94L, It doesnt look so good right now but the previous spaghetti forecast maps and spaghetti intensity graph pretty much mirrors the 00Z 21Aug 2008 stuff so I’m not bothering to say more at this time. Here is the NHC 11pm Wednesday Discussion for Fay:

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 FAY HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY WHILE CENTERED ONLY ABOUT 20 N MI OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA…AS SHOWN BY NWS WSR-88D RADAR DATA AND CONFIRMED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE STORM HAS OCCASIONALLY LOOKED FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE…WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND WHAT ESSENTIALLY QUALIFIES AS AN EYE. WSR-88D VELOCITIES ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THE MOST RECENT COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS SETTLED FOR NOW AT 994 MB. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE FAY IN A FEW HOURS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF FAY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD GET FAY MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD…ALTHOUGH SLOWLY…WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA…SINCE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING…THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TOMORROW…GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SAGGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH…AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST POINTS LISTED BELOW DO NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT…THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK HUGS THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IF FAY ENDS UP MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST…AND SPENDS MORE TIME THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF…IT COULD BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH A COUPLE OF DAYS FROM NOW. IF…HOWEVER…IT MOVES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK…IT COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK…FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 28.9N 80.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 29.2N 81.2W 50 KT…INLAND 24HR VT 22/0000Z 29.4N 82.2W 40 KT…INLAND 36HR VT 22/1200Z 29.7N 83.3W 30 KT…INLAND 48HR VT 23/0000Z 30.1N 84.6W 30 KT…INLAND 72HR VT 24/0000Z 31.0N 87.0W 30 KT…INLAND 96HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 89.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/0000Z 32.5N 90.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB

Tropical Storm Fay Opens an Eye Over Land? August 19, 2008

For access to an Interactive Radar that you can navigate anywhere in the country down to street level, put on clouds, loop and find watch boxes as well as get some computer analysis of individual storms, CLICK HERE.

NHC Fay Forecast Track NRL Graphic 5PM 0819

Take a look closely at the above radar image. In the upper left hand corner, you will

Fay Spaghetti Model 0819 18Z

see amidst the green and blues…just north of Okeechobee…a round clear spot. That is a very interesting feature because the radar loops of the day show from time to time, this storm over land, opening an eye. Rather remarkable and it shows that the structure of the Tropical Storm Fay is in great shape, perhaps better than it ever has been. Now, the storm is moving NE very slowly so it will remain over land until Wednesday. But, because of its good structure, when it gets over water again it should begin to get going again. That is why the NHC now is calling for it to reach hurricane status for the first time in its life, after it crossed Florida. If you look at the spaghetti intensity graph, there are a couple of models that get out of hand and take it up to mid-range category 2 status. The NHC isn’t going that far but are making it a hurricane.

The big fat ridge is moving in and so the notion that the storm comes back for a whack at north Florida is pretty well established in all of the models. Now, the NHC is choosing to take the storm across

Fay Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0819 18Z

South Georgia and into South Central Alabama. That is certainly viable as the idea would be that it moved around the ridge. Other solutions have the ridge asserting itself so much that the storm basically runs along I-10 due west for awhile before it turns around the ridge farther west and then merges with a system into the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. That is reasonable too. While on the accompanying spaghetti models you won’t find this particular solution, there are a couple that are similar. I am talking about the GFS and ETA which both want to take the storm back to near Cedar Key. The 18Z ETA takes it back offshore in 84 hours in the Gulf of Mexico with a pressure of about 1003 mb. The GFS takes it to the shore then back to Jacksonville and then back toward Cedar Key. I don’t know about the back and forth stuff on the GFS if the ridge were to be expansive enough, its not totally unreasonable to think that it gets driven WSW back into the Gulf. Really an interesting storm. The rain will certainly alleviate the drought situation for much of the Southeast with resevoirs and lakes getting refilled. Farmers and residents in many areas will wish the rain replentishing the water supply came over a few weeks instead of a few days. Below is the 5PM NHC discussion as well as the 2245Z satellite image of Tropical Storm Fay.

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008 FAY DID NOT WEAKEN OVER LAND AS ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT…IT IS STRONGER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN SO FAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 55 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE…RADAR AND CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. GIVEN THAT FAY HAS KEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON RADAR AND ON SATELLITE…THE CHANCES THAT THE CYCLONE BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED. THE INTENSIFICATION IS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS…THE GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS…AND IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH FAY HAS BEEN TRACKED BY SATELLITE AND NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. CURRENTLY FAY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER…THIS STEERING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE SOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF FAY. THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE FAY TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. FOLLOWING CONTINUITY…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER WESTWARD TURN. IF SO…SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON. THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 27.3N 81.0W 55 KT…INLAND 12HR VT 20/0600Z 28.2N 80.5W 55 KT…OVER WATER 24HR VT 20/1800Z 29.0N 80.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 30.0N 81.4W 65 KT…INLAND 72HR VT 22/1800Z 30.5N 83.0W 30 KT…INLAND 96HR VT 23/1800Z 31.4N 85.5W 25 KT…INLAND 120HR VT 24/1800Z 32.0N 87.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tropical Storm Fay Still Behaving on Sunday August 17, 2008

For a more recent update on Fay, Click Here.

AS FAY MOVES CLOSER TO THE US AND IN THE RANGE OF RADAR INSTALLATIONS YOU WILL BE ABLE TO TRACK ITS APPROACH WITH THIS NATIONAL INTERACTIVE RADAR THAT ALLOWS THE USER TO ZOOM IN TO STREET LEVEL AND LOOP THE IMAGE, AMONG OTHER THINGS. CLICK HERE AND CLICK ON THE INTERACTIVE RADAR WHEN YOU GET TO THE SITE.

Fay Track NHC graphic 11AM 0817

I’ve already put in my two cents regarding the track. What I said previously still

Fay Spaghetti model 12Z 0817

holds true. Jack Beven of the National Hurricane Center pretty much echoes what I have been saying as he points out the variables of the models. I still say that the turn is the key as to it’s ultimate fate. When does it turn and how much of a turn it takes. You know, I was thinking that if this guy is going to turn as sharply as the claim is that it will, then the forward momentum has got to slow down. A storm has mass and, like a ship, it cannot turn on a dime. This report indicates the forward speed has dropped to 11 knots. Even at that speed, if it were to go north, it would make a wide turn. If it does make a more gradual turn, then it may only catch the western third of Cuba which is relatively flat in relation to the mountainous center and east. It

Fay Spaghetti Intensity Graph 12Z 0817

seems to me

Fay Track NRL Graphic 11AM 0817

that such a scenario would support a better chance for development. It is interesting to me that the models seem stubborn. As I have mentioned before and Beven points out, there are still a couple of models that have a more northwesterly track and end up having the storm near Louisville. Also, one of the models on the intensity graph still takes it up to near 11 kts. Anyway, nothing has really changed from the previous report. Here is the official discussion from Dr. Beven.

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008 FAY APPEARS A LITTLE RAGGED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING…WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION IN BANDS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY…AND A SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION FROM CABO CRUZ CUBA REPORTED 45 KT. BASED ON THIS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11…A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN 6 HR AGO. FAY IS APPROACHING A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO…WHICH IS DEVELOPING DUE TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 24 HR…BUT THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH OF A TURN WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF…GFS…AND GFDL FORECAST A NORTHEASTWARD TURN TAKING FAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE HWRF…UKMET…AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR A NORTHWARD MOTION OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THEN…THE NOGPAS CALLS FOR A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OVERALL…THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS THUS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR…THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING…WITH THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING 10 TO 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER…THE SHEAR IS STILL LIGHT ENOUGH FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR IF FAY CAN DEVELOP AN INNER CORE. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST FAY TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36-48 HR…WHILE THE HWRF…WHICH KEEPS FAY OVER WATER LONGER…FORECASTS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 1/2 HURRICANE IN 48-60. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL…WITH FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN FORECAST IF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE FORMS…OR IF IT TRACKS MORE TO THE WEST AND STAYS LONGER OVER WATER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 20.5N 78.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 21.3N 80.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 22.9N 81.4W 55 KT…INLAND 36HR VT 19/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W 60 KT…OVER WATER 48HR VT 19/1200Z 26.2N 82.2W 70 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 29.5N 82.0W 50 KT…INLAND 96HR VT 21/1200Z 32.5N 81.5W 35 KT…INLAND 120HR VT 22/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Fay Hugging Fidel, Looking To Embrace Rays August 16, 2008

for a more recent update on Fay, Click Here.

You can track Fay via interactive radar as it approaches the US radar installations by clicking on this US interactive radar that can zoom to street level and loop.

Here’s the bottom line with Fay.  It’s going to hug the South Cuban Coast and make Fidel Castro’s less than desirable life even less desirable. At some point it will start

Fay Fcst Track 5pm 08/16/08

to turn and may eventually test out the meddle of the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field…as well as the roof. It’s moving around a ridge that is breaking down on the western edge due to a trof dropping down.  There also appears to be some ridging in the western Gulf making for a nice corridor for the storm to turn.  The question is when does it turn and where. The models are coming closer together with a run up the western side of Florida but a couple still want to take it up the middle or eastern side of the peninsula

Fay Spaghetti Intensity Graph 18Z 0816

while others are farther west,  though not as far west as previous runs.  Should the storm move a tad farther west and stay offshore, then it would be a stronger storm as it looks to have a pretty good structure.  Really, the only thing preventing Fay from becoming more formidable is running into land and remember the Domincan Republic and Cuba have some pretty sizable mountains.  So, as it stands, it has a brief chance to go toward a hurricane and the official track

Fay Spaghetti Model 18Z 08/16

takes it up to about 85 mph before moving into Florida around St. Petersburg and then moving into drought plagued Georgia.  The US Navy’s NOGAPS is

Fay Spaghetti Model 18Z 0816

 perhaps the farthest west for the 12Z run and it takes it into Pensacola and then up into the Ohio Valley. That is the only way that Louisville will be affected and that is not overly probable at this juncture.  This will only become a major problem if it stays out over open water for a period of time, though it may surprise some folks with the forecast track as it wouldn’t surprise me to see it be one of those that starts to wind up quickly.  Certainly worth keeping an eye on  from Mobile to Miami.  The true track probably won’t show itself for another 24 hours or so, though I betcha it runs into the trof and scoots northeast across the SE US before going out to sea.   I have the spaghetti intensity graph and another spaghetti map on the right.   Here’s the discussion. 

TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT FAY
IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN BELIEVED EARLIER…WITH THE INITIAL
INTENSITY NEAR 35 KT AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT 1006 MB.  THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE WAS RAGGED A FEW HOURS AGO…BUT A NEW CLUSTER
OF STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR
ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14.  FAY REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE…WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA
THAT SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH
AFTER 36 HR.  THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHEN
AND HOW SHARPLY FAY WILL TURN.  THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE…AND HAVE BEEN JOINED BY
THE GFDL WHICH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN.  THESE
MODELS CALL FOR A SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA LANDFALL.  THE GFS…HWRF…
GFDN…FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE…AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS
FORECAST FAY TO CROSS WEST CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE
BOTH SHIFTED EAST OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS…BUT ARE STILL ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN CALLING FOR A MOTION TOWARD
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  OVERALL…THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AFTER THE 48 HR POINT.  EVERYONE IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY…AS MOST
LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY
PRODUCT.

WHEN FAY IS OVER WATER…IT APPEARS THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR.  THUS…THE INTENSITY
WILL BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON
THE STORM STRUCTURE.  ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST
STRENGTHENING…AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  HOWEVER…THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
INTENSITY FORECAST.  FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES
WELL ORGANIZED OVER WATER…SUCH AS WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF CUBA OR
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  ON THE OTHER HAND…IT MIGHT NOT
STRENGTHEN MUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR FAY TO WEAKEN OVER THE UNITED
STATES AFTER LANDFALL.  SHOULD IT REMAIN OVER WATER AFTER 72
HR…THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/2100Z 19.3N  75.2W    35 KT
12HR VT     17/0600Z 19.9N  77.0W    40 KT
24HR VT     17/1800Z 20.9N  79.1W    50 KT…INLAND
36HR VT     18/0600Z 22.2N  80.7W    55 KT
48HR VT     18/1800Z 23.6N  81.6W    55 KT…INLAND
72HR VT     19/1800Z 27.0N  82.5W    75 KT
96HR VT     20/1800Z 30.0N  82.5W    50 KT…INLAND
120HR VT     21/1800Z 33.0N  82.5W    35 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN