Severe Threat Tuesday July 22; Dolly Track and Forecast July 22, 2008

DAY ONE SPC OUTLOOK

Tornado Threat

The big MCS in Iowa and Illinois came down as expected overnight but faded as it

Hail Threat

moved into our region. Look for subsidence in its wake to inhibit storm development for much of the day. Late in the day, we heat up very nicely, reload and wait for the next wave along the front. That will elevate the prospects for thunderstorms and the potential for more strong storms. Probably a better shot than the overnight. We’re still on track for a nice couple of days after today.

For an interactive radar that allows you to track storms down to street level from

Wind Threat

any part of the country so you can see where they are as they develop west of the viewing area, Click Here. For updates on watches or warnings for our area throughout the day, Click Here. In both cases, simply click the icon pick for what you want, which also has a local live radar.

SEE 5 PM TUESDAY JULY 22 UPDATE FOR HURRICANE DOLLY HERE. YOU WILL FIND LATEST TRACK AS WELL AS LINK TO RADAR LOOP

A couple of things to note about Dolly. First off, with the recent movement due west, the models have come into a closer agreement about the landfall near Brownsville. I like the one that holds it in tact across the Chihuahua Desert all the way to the other side of Baja California and about 70 degree water in the southern reaches of the California Stream. Anyway, the only fly in the ointment would be a bunch of short waves moving through the midwest that should erode the steering ridge a bit that could allow it to move farther north than the forecast. If you note at the bottom of the discussion there is the reference to not relying on exact landfall location and such. They seem to be announcing that more forcefully with this storm. Also, in spite of what you may have heard on national TV, there is still some shearing going on with an upper low in the Bay of Campeche that the satellite clearly shows is impeding the outflow of the southeastern part of the storm. That is progged to move out and so the outflow should become more consistent. The internal structure is getting better and so it should strengthen and they do take it to hurricane status prior to landfall. The question here is whether or not it slows down enough to allow it to get going to its potential which would otherwise be pretty good if it weren’t going to probably run out of Gulf of Mexico to work with. The oil rigs in the Gulf shouldn’t be adversely affected too much as long as the storm behaves itself and goes where it is supposed to.

Dolly 5 AM 07/22/08 NHC Discussion

Dolly Edging Northward July 21, 2008

SEE 5 PM TUESDAY JULY 22 UPDATE FOR HURRICANE DOLLY HERE. YOU WILL FIND LATEST TRACK AS WELL AS LINK TO RADAR LOOP

Note that the latest track of Dolly has been nudged north for a landfall just north of Brownsville, Texas. The official intensity forecast has also been increased a bit. This storm has the potential for development and the later time frame of the forecast is a bit uncertain.

Here is the discussion.

Catfight on the High Seas and In The Pits: Dolly, Cristobal, Danica and Milka July 21, 2008

It’s Hurricane Season and for identification purposes, the storms were given names. This practice began back in the 1950′s.  At first it was the code for the alphabet (Able, Baker, Charlie, etc).  Trouble was that you would have the same names for every year.  To prevent confusion, they began using women’s names.  By the late 1970′s, it was becoming increasingly controversial to only have women’s names so they began altering men and women’s names.  These days, the World Meteorological Organization chooses the names and they want to show real diversity, which is why we end up with names like Cristobal, which is the Italian form of Christopher and Georges or Jorge, which is the French and Spanish versions of George.  Well, Indycar has gotten into the act.  For years their sport was dominated by men, who often got into tussles with one another in the pits.  Well, this isn’t exactly the same as AJ Foyt stomping about the pits looking for a fight, but instead, Danica Patrick goes on the prowl in pursuit of one of the only other women on the track.  In this video you will see what happens when the feisty American Danica confronts Venezuelan Milka Duno.   Seems Danica thinks the other woman is a bad driver!   I love the opening credit.

You Tube Video of Cat Fight

Meanwhile, Back in the Tropics….

Cristobal is performing as expected.  At midnight it was off Cape Hatteras and scheduled to move northeast, increasing forward speed as it does so.  It will probably never be anything more than a tropical storm and will head toward Nova Scotia.  A cold front will pick it up and shoot it northeast.  Too bad they never put any windmills off of Massachusetts…would have been a great chance to generate some power.    Cristobal Discussion.

Tropical Storm Dolly never even bothered with being a tropical depression.  It’s had a decent wind-field for the past few days but just no low level circulation to speak of until Sunday afternoon and the second it did, they made it a tropical storm.  Generally, it’s expected to go across the Yucatan and re-emerge over the Southern Gulf of Mexico aka the Bay of Campeche.  When it does, indications are for a strengthening trend.  Model data does not support it becoming a minimal hurricane but it’s not totally out of the question as the upper environment should become more conducive for development.  It will probably run into land though before it makes it to hurricane status.  Most data indicates Northern Mexico or South Texas.  There is nothing to indicate that the ridge steering it would break down enough to turn it farther north, but that possibility, as remote as it is, exists and so the cone goes all the way up to Corpus Christi.  Dolly Discussion

Remember Apollo 11? Iceland Won’t Forget Bertha, Media Won’t Forget Cristobal, Texas Shouldn’t Forget Dolly. July 20, 2008

It still looks to be hot for the next couple of days, though rain chances will increase. There will probably be a few storms roaming about in the heat of the day today and more numerous tomorrow in the afternoon and more pointedly in the evening and overnight when a front eases through. The front will take the temperatures down a peg or two and also will flip flop around the region for much of the week, bringing us rain chances for several days. Here are the thumbnails for the Sunday and Monday SPC outlook. The northern fringe is in the slight risk for today with the entire area included from Monday morning through Tuesday morning.

On This Date In History: On this date in 1969, Neil Armstrong and Edwin E. Aldrin landed on the moon. Michael Collins was left behind in the command module (Columbia) orbiting the moon. Armstrong and Aldrin had landed in the Lunar Module (LEM) called the “Eagle” with but 1 second of fuel remaining. It was nearly a catastrophe. “Houston” was the first word ever spoken from the moon…a point of pride for Texans. The first seven words were, “Houston, Tranquility Base, the Eagle has Landed.” They had landed in the “sea of tranquility” on the moon, a name given to a region that appeared to have few craters or boulders. I’ll spare you more details and let you look it all up yourself.

But consider this….the earth spins at 1100 mph. The moon is 243,000 miles from the earth and rotates around the rotating earth in 28 day cycles. Space is 3 degrees Kelvin, or 3 degrees above absolute zero which is when all molecular activity stops. There is no atmosphere. It is the most inhospitable place for any human. There were no micro computers and not even calculators. In order to pull it off, calculations had to be extremely precise. The burning of the engines had to be down to the millisecond. All angles had to be exact as well as speed and acceleration. Any slight mishap would spell disaster. Engineers relied on slide rules and theory. Armstrong, Collins and Aldrin as well as all astronauts, even today, are extremely brave frontiersman. It is absolutely unimaginable what happened on this date in 1969. By all rights, it shouldn’t have happened. It is one of the few times that “Yankee Ingenuity” truly lived up to its billing. If you know physics, you know how remarkable this was…if you don’t…take my word for it, it was unbelievable.

Perhaps more unbelievable, my daughter was born on this date on the 25 year anniversary of America’s greatest triumph.

Is Dolly Developing? Maybe. Same story as previous. Here’s the latest on the guy in the Caribbean.

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT…AND THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT… LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY…AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. UPDATE:  Yes…we now have Dolly.  Dolly Discussion.

Bertha Looks to Bisect Iceland: Bertha is losing some steam and some tropical characteristics but not all that quickly. That is probably the most remarkable thing about this storm is that it is over water that is but 65 degrees and yet, still is somewhat tropical in nature. It is not overly remarkable that its going to Iceland. Storms often end up in mainland Europe but there’s a big fat high there that is preventing it from turning east so, Iceland it is! Here’s the discussion.

Cristobal To Bring Big Surf to Big Tony: Look for Cristobal to get some big headlines and a place in the national news. Not for it’s ferocity but for the fact that it will be along the east coast. It’s good to scare people in the media these days. Don’t be surprised to hear “what if this was a major storm” stories. Well, it’s not…probably won’t make hurricane. It will kick up the seas from Maryland to Maine and that’s about it. Maybe they’ll be surfing on the Jersey Shore with Pauly Walnuts and Tony Soprano hanging ten.  Here’s the discussion on Cristobal.