Is Justice Too Blind? Can Whiskers Buy Votes? Is Omar a Howler? October 15, 2008

Rain Total Forecast Wed 1015 thru Fri 1018

for a link to a radar loop and a more recent update on hurricane Omar, CLICK HERE

As you can tell if you compare this outlook for the latter part of the week with the previous HPC forecast assessment of raintotals through Friday evening, you will notice much less anticipated around here. That is because there are a couple of scenarios but neither brings much rain here. The ETA today was advertising a little less than a half inch on Thursday afternoon and that was it. The GFS wanted a little early Thursday and a little early Friday totalling less than 1/10 of an inch. We feel like the truth is somewhere in between. While we think that Wednesday will be warm, the first little weak boundary may be sufficient to bring some showers early Thursday. Then the second push with the cold air associated with it, brings some light scattered activity on Friday. Look for sunshine over the weekend but highs on Saturday and Sunday of 60 and 68 respectively but with frost possible in some areas on Saturday night as everyone should fall to the 30′s.

Atlantic IR Satellite 1015 0115Z

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model 1015 00Z

Years ago, I saw Jimmy Buffett in Austin and his harmonica player, Greg “Fingers” Taylor performed the night before with “Omar and the Howlers”. Not sure what happened to that band…I think Fingers Taylor has still performed with Jimmy off and on over the years….but today we have Hurricane Omar, which is bearing down on the Virgin Islands. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten (Martin) and St. Barthelemy. Omar has looked pretty good on the satellite image and became a hurricane Tuesday evening. It’s still likely to move through the northeast Caribbean and into the open Atlantic where liners, freighters, oil tankers and pirates will have to deal with it.

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model 1015 00Z

Tropical Depression 16 is still generally expected to move along the Honduran coast and into Belize. A couple of models differ with that scenario and that may be a result of climatology built into the models. If the storm were to move slow enough, it would be possible for the ridge steering it move or break down and allow for some northward motion. But, that is not expected and the most serious aspect of this storm at this point is heavy rain and flood potential in Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala and Belize. The most interesting thing most likely will be if it becomes Tropical Storm Paloma or if it makes it across into the Pacific.

Look to the bottom of the post for the National Hurricane Center Discussion for both tropical systems as well as the forecast tracks and more graphical information.

Harper's Weekly Mar 9, 1861 Lincoln Sneaks Into Washington

Last Lincoln Portrait Apr 4 1865

On This Date in History: On October 15, 1860 the Republican nominee for President, Abraham Lincoln, received a letter from eleven-year-old Grace Bedell. At that time, women did not have the right to vote so young Grace urged Mr. Lincoln to grow a beard. She said, “All the ladies like whiskers and they will tease their husbands to vote for you and then you would be president.” But, Lincoln did not grow the beard until after he was elected. Most histories suggest that the beard was grown as a make-shift disguise for his arrival in Washington for the inaugural because there were so many threats against his life. He came to Washington under the cover of darkness, with the beard. But, Lincoln later responded to queries and said that the genesis of the beard was traced back to the letter of Grace Bedell.

Now, artists were alerted in advance that the President-elect would emerge at the inaugural with a beard. But no one knew what he would look like. So, they simply used existing photos and added beard styles of their choosing. I think it’s safe to say that none of them were able to fully reproduce the lasting image of “Father Abraham.”

Blindfold Too Tight For Frankie?

On This Date in 1899, Frankie of Frankie and Johnny were lovers fame shot her boyfriend. But, her lover was named Allen, also called Albert, not Johnny. The woman in question was Frances Baker and the then 22-year-old was acquitted in the murder of her 17-year-old boyfriend in a self defense stance. She said that she shot him only when he came to her house and drew a knife to kill her. She had a silver plated pistol at her bedside and shot him. But, the song claims that she shot him when she found him with another woman. Baker said that she knew that he was seeing Alice Pryor but “never fussed with her about it.” She also said that the song had it wrong when it said that she shot him “root a toot-toot-toot three times.” She said it only took one shot.

What really got Baker upset about her infamy in song was that the song questioned her virtue, calling her a “queen sport.” She had to move from St. Louis to Omaha and then Portland but couldn’t get away from the negative publicity. The song was turned into a play and then a movie in 1936 and Baker sued Republic Pictures for the use of the song. In her 1942 trial, she said she didn’t wear diamonds like the movie portrayed and only had cotton dresses, not the fancy clothes portrayed in the movie. In the end, the more she told her story, the more convinced the jurors of the court became that the song wasn’t even about her. Even though her St. Louis neighbors said the song was indeed about her, Frances “Frankie” Baker lost the case and returned to Portland and in 1950 was committed to a mental institution and died at age 75 two years later. But…her efforts were for naught. St. Louis for a time billed itself as the “birthplace of Frankie and Johnny” and no one deterred singers from reciting the lyrics “he was her man, but he done her wrong.”

So, the songwriters and movie script writers got the story so wrong that even the court didn’t believe that the song was about Frances Baker. Seems that Baker did too good of a job convincing the court that she was wrongly portrayed in song, and it cost her $200,000. Then again….Johnny…or Albert…or Allen…wasn’t able to tell his side of the story.

HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL152008 1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Hurricane Omar Forecast Track 1014 11pm

THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS EVENING…

Hurricane Omar IR Satellite 1015 0115Z

HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT OMAR HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. A NEARLY COMPLETE EYEWALL HAS BEEN SEEN AT TIMES ON THE CURACAO RADAR…AND OMAR HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z WERE BOTH T4.0…OR 65 KT. IN ADDITION… THE CIMSS ADT IS RUNNING AROUND T4.5…AND A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 66 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA…THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO…AND ALL THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FORECASTS OMAR TO

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1015 00Z

STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE CARIBBEAN. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A 60% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE…BUT IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/5. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC…AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE HWRF AND GFDL CONTINUE TO LIE ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE…WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT…BUT THE MODEL SPREAD IS NOT LARGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THIS TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL CLUSTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 14.3N 68.1W 65 KT

12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.1N 67.1W 75 KT

24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.7N 65.4W 85 KT

36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.3W 90 KT

48HR VT 17/0000Z 21.9N 61.1W 90 KT

72HR VT 18/0000Z 27.0N 58.0W 80 KT

96HR VT 19/0000Z 33.0N 54.0W 70 KT

120HR VT 20/0000Z 41.0N 44.0W 60 KT

$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008

1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Tropical Depression 16 Forecast Track 1014 11pm

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT IN LINE WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA. WITH THE SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SUFFICIENTLY WARM…THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER…ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION…RAPID DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 2 DAYS…BUT ONLY A SMALL

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1015 00Z

DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING THE CENTER OVER LAND SOONER…POTENTIALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION…A GENERAL WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 16.2N 83.8W 25 KT

12HR VT 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.6W 30 KT

24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.3N 85.8W 35 KT

36HR VT 16/1200Z 16.2N 87.2W 40 KT

48HR VT 17/0000Z 16.0N 88.5W 40 KT

72HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 91.0W 25 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 19/0000Z…DISSIPATED

$$ FORECASTER RHOME/SCHAUER CLARK

Tropical Storm Omar Looks Better While Tropical Depression 16 Looks Lost October 14, 2008

Atlantic IR Satellite 1014 2015Z

Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Track 1014 5pm EDT

for a more recent update on hurricane omar with a link to a radar loop, CLICK HERE

Tropical Storm Omar Became a Hurricane Tuesday Night (click here)

There really isn’t much different from the midday action regarding the tropics.

Tropical Storm Omar Vis Satellite 1014 2015Z

Tropical Storm Omar is looking pretty impressive on the visible satellite and will probably becomea hurricane. It won’t pose a problem unless you are heading to the Virgin Islands, St. Kitts, Barbuda or Antigua. After it passes through the Antilles it goes into the Central Atlantic where it will die a slow death in cold waters. Really, aside from the islands, it is a maritime concern.

Tropical Depression 16 Forecast Track 1014 5pm EDT

Tropical Depression 16 is so broad that its difficult to pin point a center but from the Satellite I’d wager that its just off the Northeastern Honduran Coast. The official forecast has it moving on the edge of a ridge to the

Tropical Depression 16 IR Satellite 1014 2015Z

north and moving generally parallel to the Honduran coast and then into Belize. The amount of land interaction will determine whether or not it becomes Poloma. It may be interesting to see if it survives enough to re-emerge over the Pacific and cause trouble. The only concern here, and its not that great, is that the storm moves so slowly that the ridge to the north breaks down and allows for motion to the north, which would then create a scenario for a threat to the US, primarily Florida. But there is a general consensus in the modeling data that does not support such a movement at this time…but its worth taking note. Otherwise, Nana is off the board and Invest 90 is pretty worthless at the moment.

Here is the National Hurricane Center Forecast Discussion for 5pm for Tropical Depression 16 and Tropical Storm Omar. Also find spaghetti models.

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model 1014 18Z

SATELLITE…RADAR…AND AIR FORCE RECON DATA INDICATE THAT OMAR HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE ONLY BEEN 63 KT…RELIABLE SFMR
SURFACE WIND DATA HAVE BEEN AS HIGH 57-60 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A
DROPSONDE WAS 986 MB…BUT THE SURFACE WIND WAS 46 KT. THEREFORE…
THE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 982 MB AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO A CONSERVATIVE 60 KT. OMAR CONTINUES TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZED IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY…AND VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS OF -80C TO -87C PERSIST OVER AND NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF OMAR…THE FLIGHT CREW
REPORTED A 10-15 NMI DIAMETER EYE WAS FORMING. OUTFLOW ALSO
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS…EXCEPT TO THE
NORTHWEST WHERE IT IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED.

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 18Z

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 060/06. THE THREE RECON FIXES
THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST THAT OMAR MAY BE FINALLY MAKING THE TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL CYCLES. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ON A TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT
36 HOURS…WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS
OMAR GETS LIFTED RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DIGGING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS IN THE FORWARD
SPEED OF OMAR AFTER 24 HOURS. THE GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF MODELS RACE
OMAR QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST…WHEREAS THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE NOTICEABLY SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS…BUT
REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING…POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION… IS
EXPECTED SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS…GFDL… AND HWRF MODELS…AND OMAR IS EXPECTED TO
OBTAIN CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS OMAR TO 104 KT BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER…THE 12Z
HWRF MODEL ONLY BRINGS OMAR TO 88 KT AND THE GFDL ONLY STRENGTHENS
THE CYCLONE TO 62 KT. BASED ON A STRONGER VORTEX INITIALIZED BY THE
MODELS FOR THE 18Z CYCLE…OUTPUT FROM THOSE MODELS DUE OUT IN A
FEW HOURS MAY BE QUITE DIFFERENT AND MUCH STRONGER. AS A RESULT…
SUBSEQUENT NHC INTENSITY FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 14.0N 68.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 14.6N 68.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 15.9N 66.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 18.0N 64.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 20.6N 62.1W 85 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 26.0N 58.4W 80 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 31.1N 55.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 38.0N 49.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model 1014 18Z

CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS THINNED DURING
THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER…A FEW BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT
HAS VERY RECENTLY FIXED A CENTER ABOUT 45 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
APPARENT CENTER SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY…WHICH SUGGEST
THE DEPRESSION IS LESS WELL ORGANIZED THAN IT APPEARS. FOR THE
TIME BEING…WE WILL GO WITH THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE DETERMINED FROM THE SATELLITE IMAGERY…BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED WHEN WE ARE
MORE CERTAIN OF THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER. REGARDLESS…
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT…AND NO MORE THAN AROUND
25-30 KT IN AND NEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 25 KT.

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 18Z

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY…THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. ABOUT HALF OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CENTER
INLAND OVER HONDURAS…WHILE THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE CENTER ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TO THE LATTER OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND KEEPS THE
CENTER JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…BUT THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE SAME AS THIS MORNING. A
TRACK OFFSHORE WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT…FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING…WHILE A TRACK
SOUTH OF MY FORECAST WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM INLAND MUCH EARLIER.
SINCE THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOWS A
LITTLE LESS TIME OVER WATER…THE PEAK INTENSITY IS A LITTLE LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 15.7N 83.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 15.9N 84.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.1N 86.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 15.9N 88.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 15.5N 90.5W 25 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 18/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

Tropical Storm Omar Shows Up; Tropical Depression 16 October 14, 2008

Atlantic Visible Satellite 1014 1415Z

Tropical Storm Omar became a hurricane on Tuesday night (click here)

As I had indicated earlier, the two systems worth watching are the two that are on the upswing. Former Tropical Storm Nana is worthless and it’s partner, Invest 90 is a long way from becoming name worthy.

Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Track 1014 11AM

Tropical Depression 15, as anticipated, is now Tropical Storm Omar. It is just

Tropical Storm Omar IR Satellite 1014 1345Z

meandering in the Eastern Caribbean and while it dawdles, it should get picked up by some trofiness that will pick it up and move it north and then north-northeast. The models prog the system as a developing hurricane and the satellite imagery looks fairly worthwhile. The track will make it a rain and wind maker for the islands and then be generally a concern for maritime interests.

Invest 99 has turned into Tropical Depression 16 and may

Tropical Depression 16 Forecast Track 1014 11AM

become Tropical Storm Paloma. The interesting facets of this system are its

Tropical Depression 16 IR Satellite 1014 1345Z

proximity and also the forecast track. It is just off of the Honduran coast and is forecast to move to the northwest and then west, basically paralleling the Honduran coast. With this forecast track, it is progged to become Tropical Storm Paloma. However, should its central core move slightly west of the forecast track, then it will be on shore and development would be tough, if not impossible. Either way, its slow movement will produce a whole mess of rain in Honduras and Nicaragua and surrounding Central American nations and those areas are notorious for not being able to handle extreme rain very well. One note of concern is that as this guy moves slowly, the more time there would be for steering currents to change…perhaps a trof building down or a ridge building in, that would turn this guy north. While only a handful of the models advertise this and it is contrary to the official forecast track, the slow movement must cause one to keep that possibility in the back of one’s mind as such an event might create a scenario that would eventually affect the US and this time of year, that scenario becomes a little more likely than at earlier times in the hurricane season.

The National Hurricane Center Discussions for Tropical Depression 16 and Tropical Storm Omar along with spaghetti models are below:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model 1014 12Z

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH
ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS AND AN 1110 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE COAST OF
EASTERN HONDURAS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT...BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF
THE INTENSITY.

Tropical Depression 16 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 12Z

THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/6. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE PREDICTS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST VERY SOON TO THE SOUTH OF
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS PREDICT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WHICH
BRINGS THE CENTER INLAND OVER EASTERN HONDURAS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTION...WHICH KEEP THE
CENTER OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS AND THEN MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE.  HOWEVER...IT
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN
HONDURAS...THEREFORE...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS AS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THEIR COUNTRY.

THE EXACT TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON
THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE.  IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...SO INTENSIFICATION WOULD
APPEAR LIKELY.  OF COURSE...IF THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OF OVER LAND
THE CHANGES FOR STRENGTHENING WOULD BE MUCH LESS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS THE CENTER OVER WATER...CALLS FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/1500Z 15.6N  83.0W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N  83.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 16.3N  84.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 16.4N  85.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 16.3N  87.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 16.2N  89.0W    55 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 16.3N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model 1014 12Z

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH SOME TOPS TO -86C NEAR THE CENTER. OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED
IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS LESS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST NOW. THE
INITIAL ADVISORY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT
SATELLITE ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...PLUS
SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 30-34 KT QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT AROUND 1036Z THIS MORNING. THUS...TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OMAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 115/02. OMAR HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1014 12Z

TO SOUTHEASTWARD THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND CURRENTLY SHOWS NO SIGN OF
CHANGING THAT MOTION. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A BROAD DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY
PICK UP OMAR AND NUDGE IT TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...
AND THEN ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. THE LATEST
TREND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG 70W LONGITUDE CAN BE SEEN DIGGING DUE SOUTH.
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED CROSS-WISE...BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND JUST HOW SOON OMAR
GETS PICKED UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST OR RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...BUT NOT AS FAR
EAST OR AS FAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO-LIKE AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION
SUGGESTS THAT OMAR MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING.
IN ADDITION...A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
THAT HAS BEEN DISRUPTING INFLOW INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTIVE
FORCING TO OCCUR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW
PATTERN AND A FORECAST OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FURTHER SUPPORTS A FORECAST OF
STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF AT LEAST ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GREATER
THAN 20 KT...SO THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY DAY 2
AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/1500Z 14.0N  69.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 14.7N  68.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 15.8N  67.3W    55 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 17.3N  65.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 19.1N  63.6W    65 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 23.8N  60.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 28.0N  58.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 33.0N  55.0W    65 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART