Villified Corporate Bosses Sometimes Are Great Americans
February 25, 2010

Union Pacific Stock Certificate Artwork Symbolized Innovation and Progress of E.H. Harriman

"Think you used enough dynamite there, Butch?"

On This Date in History:  Do you remember the movie, Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid?   It starred Robert Redford as Sundance and Paul Newman as Butch.  It had some amusing scenes and some were actually based on some true events, though maybe not events associated with Butch Cassidy.  For instance, there was the great scene in which the Hole in the Wall Gang try to rob a train.  Woodcock was the man inside the car and he had been held up by Butch and Sundance before.   So, the second time, he refuses to open the door of the car and Butch uses dynamite to blow the door only to blow up the entire car.  Sundance asks, “think you used enough dynamite there, Butch?”  Well, I suspect that this type of event really happened only it was an event in the life of whom I called the worst outlaw in the old west, Al Jennings.  Now, part of the comedic aspects of these train robberies was Woodcock’s outspoken loyalty to Mr. E. H. Harriman.  As it turns out, E. H. Harriman was indeed a real person and a very powerful and influencial man.

Union Pacific Fell Hard and Fast After Triumph At Promontory, Utah in 1869

Episcopal minister Orlando Harriman and his wife, Cornelia Neilson, brought Edward H. Harriman into the world in Hempstead, New York on this date in 1848.  Young Edward hated school, dropped out at age 14 and became a broker’s boy.  He amazed the stock brokers at his ability to pick stocks.  By the time he was 21, he had his own seat on the stock exchange.   He got interested in railroads when he tried to revive some distressed rail lines owned by his wife’s relatives.  He apparently was the type of man who dove into his projects because he became very astute when it came to managing rail flow as well as the technological aspects of steam locomotion.  He also seemed to enjoy the challenge of rehabilitating depressed railroads.   So, he moved on to a more ambitious project: saving the Union Pacific Railroad.

Harriman Rebulding the Union Pacific in 1899

The Union Pacific had been one of the railroads that completed the transcontinental railroad.  But, by 1897, it was but a shadow of its former self as its equipment fell into disrepair, the business had become extremely inefficient and in general was behind the times.  In about a decade, E. H. Harriman had turned the Union Pacific into one of best run railroads and companies in the nation.  As part of his revival of the Union Pacific, he gobbled up weaker railroads in the West and Southwest in order to maximize profits and efficiency.  His business created a concentration of power in the transportation business that was vital to the American economy.  That got the attention of the great “trust buster” President Theodore Roosevelt.  He sued Harriman and the Union Pacific for violation of anti-trust laws and the US Supreme Court ordered that Harriman divest in 1904. 

Railroad Was A Wreck Until Harriman

Because Harriman adamently refused to explain his rationale, he is viewed in history as a robber baron who only wanted to make more money for himself at the expense of others.  But, like John D. Rockefeller, Harriman went about his business in an effort to maximize efficiency and a more efficient transportation system was a benefit to the economy and the nation as a whole. He didn’t buy railroads for a quick profit but instead believed that a more efficient operation and improvement to the railroad property would maximize profitability.  It can be argued that monopolies are the most efficient way to bring a product or service to the public but, that is dependent on having an honorable person at the helm.  However, pragmatically, the temptation to take advantage of the opportunities presented by a monopoly is extreme and the risk involved is just  too great to allow that to happen as a matter of  normal business.    Rockefeller defended his position and left a large portion of his enormous fortune to build the University of Chicago and the Rockefeller Institute and also greatly improve education of minorities in the South. 

John Muir Painted A Different Picture of E. H. Harriman

Harriman did not defend himself and, regardless of what he did, is largely remembered as an evil Robber Baron.  Nevertheless, had someone like Harriman not come along and improved the transportation system, the American marketplace and economy may not have evolved as quickly and with such gusto as it did from the late 19th century into the 20th century.  Harriman established standards for locomotives, cars, bridges, structures, signals, and even such items as paint and stationery.  And, he spearheaded an expedition to Alaska in 1899 that brought valuable knowledge to the science community.   He probably should be praised, not buried.  Naturalist John Muir, who founded the Sierra Club, wrote this about Harriman:

“Comparatively few have gained anything like adequate knowledge of the extent and warmth of his sympathies, but none who came nigh him could fail to feel his kindness, especially in his home, radiating a delightful, peaceful atmosphere, the finest domestic weather imaginable. His warm heart it was that endeared him to his friends, but in almost every way he was a man to admire—in apparent repose brooding his work plans, or in grand, overcoming, enthusiastic action shoving them forward, rejoicing and influencing all the country like climate; when silent in company, or at long intervals giving out something striking, saying the commonest things in unforgettable ways and making them seem uncommon in the new light flashed upon them; when severe and rigid as fate; or merry in friendly conversation, eye striking eye, thought clashing against thought making wit sparkles fly.” 

Does that sound like the Robber Baron presented to us in history?  Often, labels given by historians or popular culture do not fit the man.

Early Afternoon Saturday NAM Shows Low to Mid 30's....Dont Look For a Warm Up

NAM Nudges Us Over 32 by early Afternoon Despite less than 5400 thickness

Weather Bottom Line:  Now, yesterday, I told you that I am a bit handicapped by not having access to a Skew-T/Log P diagram, though I may have said Log P/Skew T.  This would be helpful as general rules of thumb come into conflict with reality when we have a change of seasons.  It’s good to be able to analyze what is happening.  So, I often have to rely on experience.  For instance, I saw forecasts for Wednesday that called for highs of 36, 37 or 38 degrees.  Now, a rule of thumb is that freezing conditions can generally be found when there is a 1000mb – 5oomb thickness of 5400 meters or less.  Different times of year and other variables mess that up but, in this case, we are still in winter, the forecast was for cloudy skies and with light snow or flurries all day which would tend to drag cold air down.  The thickness forecast for the models had it going from 5230 mb to 5130 mb.  I could not figure out how in the world we would get above freezing if all of those factors came to pass.  For all practical purposes, we did not.  The high at the almost always warmer than everyone else airport was 33 and that was at 12:39 AM.  The low was 27 at 1:25 pm and we stayed in the upper 20′s for most of the day.  So, its stuff like this that often causes my puzzlement.

Our Adopted "Paintbrush" Fits the Bill

Anyway, I had surmised that we we’d have light snow all day but because it fell over a long period, accumulations would not be an issue and that was correct, though I think most people got more than the trace of snow reported at the airport.  Now, by Wednesday evening, we had some decent light snow bands coming through and the ground became covered in snow and the roads slick in spots.  It was enough for Snow White to go out and cover up our adopted outdoor kitty cat, Paintbrush, though she refrained from using the expensive robe I gave her and instead used fleece blankets.  That has got to be the most pampered stray cat of all time.  He gets all the food he wants, has time to chase birds or the ladies at his leisure and can return to a pampered bed.

Early Sun AM, GFS has freezing line well south and wrap around moisture from Low in New England over Ohio Valley. Doesn't look like the 40's to me.

The outlook continues to be cold.  That little warm up we had last weekend was simply an fluke and the pattern shows no signs of changing.  Over the next couple of days, the thicknesses do increase a bit and we get sunshine.   So, even though after lingering snow flurries or light snow early Thursday the thickness only rises to about 5300 meters, we get some sunshine so that should get us to 34 or 35, if the sun does show up.  So, that call has some merit.   After that though, through the weekend, its hard to draw a conclusion to support temperatures much beyond 40.  I mean….maybe some of the forecasts that I see of 43 or 44 come about, but I don’t get it.  In fact, there is a big fat snow snowstorm that you will hear about because it bombs out going up the east coast, stops off of New York Harbor and then backtracks into New England where it stays put.  Parts of the Northeast should get buried in a couple of feet of snow and David Letterman will probably be talking about weekend snow on Monday night.  I suspect that storm will help drag down cold air for the weekend, perhaps some clouds and maybe even some flurries or weak light snow bands.  So…I don’t get how we get to 40.  After that, there had been indications of a potential event around here…first it was snow then it looked like maybe a severe outbreak in the southern plains, but now some indications are that the big trof in the east persists and we get nothing like that.  I’m guessing that the longer range models are having a conflict between reality and the climate parameters built into the programming.  For that reason, long range modeling will probably be in flux and the data largely unreliable.  Eric…that is your answer.

Little Giant Makes Kansas Bleed? Severe Threat Wed.
February 11, 2009

Rock and Roll Band Kansas Recognized the History of the State

Rock and Roll Band Kansas Recognized the History of the State

 

 

yawnbaseballWonder how some ballplayers are sleeping these days?  Pretty active few days for the feds.  First, they show their hand for the case against Barry Bonds, but some of the best evidence may get tossed by the judge.  I’m not so sure the court of public opinion will be so forgiving.  Then, A-Rod got nabbed by Sports Illustrated and fessed up, but questions remain on whether or not his fessing up was the total truth.  I pointed out that if he had said he used PED while with the Yankees, that his new contract could be voided.  Not only that, but if he said he used them after 2003, then he’d be subject to suspension penalties.  Of course, we have Roger Clemens under investigation for lying to Congress and now Migel Tejada has been charged with lying to investigators.  He’s not nailed for using PED’s, but instead lying to the federal investigators, much like Martha Stewart got nailed.  Is it possible that Jose Canseco ends up being the only one telling the truth? Who knows.  But, I suspect the other 103 players who tested positive in 2003 are a bit nervous.

On This Date in History:  I think most people are familiar with Stephen A. Douglas.  He was the “little giant” who was Abraham Lincoln’s political opponent.  He was a candidate for president in the 1860 election.  While he is

The Little Giant Wanted A Big Railroad

The Little Giant Wanted A Big Railroad

associated with the pro-slavery forces of antebellum America, it seems that some suggest that he really wasn’t all that enthused about the issue.  Instead, his support for the Southerners position was more rooted in his desire to get a transcontinental railroad from Chicago to the Pacific.  Standing in the way was the Nebraska Territory.  Every bill that had been brought up to organize the territory had been defeated by the southern states out of fear that it would be a free state, as proscribed by the Missouri Compromise. 

Northern Papers Had a Field Day

Northern Papers Had a Field Day

Undaunted, Douglas had a solution.  He proposed the Kansas-Nebraska Act which would divide the territory into two states and let the settlers decide  whether or not they would have slavery or not.  In 1854, the Kansas-Nebraska Act was passed and the Missouri Compromise that had stood for over 3 decades was repealed.  That blew the lid off the simmering pot and some historians say that pretty much sealed the fate of Douglas’ bid to be president.  Nebraska was certain to be a free state and that left Kansas in the crosshairs of the southern coalition.   Both sides of the issue sent their minions pouring into the state.  Proslavers from Missouri poured in and founded the towns of Leavenworth and Atchison.  Free Soilers responded by sending in folks to found Lawrence and Topeka.  Guerilla warfare ensused.

Pretty Tough Being a Kansas Settler

Pretty Tough Being a Kansas Settler

Abolitionist minister Henry Ward Beecher’s congregation funded the shipment of rifles in boxes marked “Farming Implements.”  The guns became known as “Beechers’ Bibles.”  Raiders from Missouri torched Lawrence in 1856 and the infamous John Brown retaliated by killing 5 slavery supporters in Pottawatomie.  An abolitionist minister was spared a lynching when it was determined that killing a man of the cloth would not do the pro-slavery cause much good.  So, they settled on tar and feathering him instead.  On this date in 1856, the ineffective President Franklin Pierce  issued a proclamation that requested citizens from all of the states to stop meddling in the affairs of Kansas.  Pierce was about as popular then as he is now and his proclamation was ignored pretty much as it is ignored by history.  He didn’t exactly speak from a bully pulpit.  Kansas became known as “Bleeding Kansas” as homes and crops were burned, livestock killed and some 200 people were killed. 

Towns Became Battlefields

Towns Became Battlefields

So, what about the vote that Douglas had called for?  Well, when it came about, a bunch of thugs from Missouri came into the territory to intimidate voters and stuff the ballot box.  Their side won in 1857 and wrote a constitution that included slavery.  When the constitution came to a vote in 1858….it failed.  In 1859, a new consitutional convention was convened and produced a new constitution that outlawed slavery.  It didn’t really matter much in the end because by the time Kansas became the 34th state, 11 southern states had already seceded from the Union.  But, it could be said that the preview of the bloody civil war to follow could be seen in Bleeding Kansas.  How people in the nation on both sides could see what happened there and still conclude that a national conflict would be short is beyond me. 

President Lincoln pretty much took a system with a relatively weak presidency and turned it into a strong presidency and the office has become more dominant ever since.  While Thomas Jefferson favored a weak central government, we have an example of total catastrophe when there is a weak presidency and Congress tries to steer the nation and set the agenda.  Keep that in mind today.

Slight Risk Severe Weather 7AM Wed to 7AM Thu

Slight Risk Severe Weather 7AM Wed to 7AM Thu

Weather Bottom Line:  I may not be on the tube at the moment but my flock still keeps me informed.  Now, I’ve been warning you for a number of days now about the potential for big old storms here and the day has arrived.  I told you that all indications are that the main threat appeared to be strong winds.  All of that is holding fast and the

SPC Severe Probability 7AM Wed to 7AM Thu

SPC Severe Probability 7AM Wed to 7AM Thu

boys at the National Weather Service have issued a high wind warning for Wednesday.  I’ve heard from several people that “they” say that we’re going to have 90 mph winds tomorrow.  Snow White’s dad was digging around for flashlights on Tuesday to be prepared.  Of course, no one ever tells me where they hear this stuff, though I have an idea.  So, will we get 90 mph winds?  I suppose it is possible but I would not say its probable by any stretch and in fact not all that likely nor would it be the norm.  What we will have is a strong southwesterly flow for the first part of the day.  Winds should be running some 20-30 mph with higher gusts.   The outlook from the Severe Prediction Center indicates that a line of storms ahead of the front could come running along here at about 50 kts.  The data all indicate winds aloft at that speed.  The forward momentum alone will help get winds to up to and perhaps over 50 mph.  But, as I’ve said before, the potential energy, or CAPE will be

Feb 11 Hail Probabilities

Feb 11 Hail Probabilities

Feb11 Tornado Probability

Feb11 Tornado Probability

limited, though latest indications from the 18Z profile of both the NAM and GFS has a bit more than previously advertised.  So, what that would do would increase the chances of thunderstorms that could draw down some of those winds to the surface.  90 mph is probably a stretch but something in excess of the 58 mph severe parameter would not be out of the question, hence, the slight risk of severe thunderstorms.  The SWEAT indices of both models are still high but the threat of tornadoes would probably be limited to what I call trash can twisters that are quick hitters showing up on bow-echo segments.  Still dangerous and something to watch for, but the wind will be the primary

Feb 11 Wind Probability the Greatest

Feb 11 Wind Probability the Greatest

threat.  The helicities are high, again, indicating a lot of wind energy.  You probably don’t have any of this stuff outside but perhaps some tools or things from cleaning up from the ice storm should be put in a secure place.  You don’t need a rake flying down the street.  The trees don’t have any leaves so, on the one hand, I wouldn’t think that would be a problem.  However, limbs and branches may be more susceptable to being a problem given that some that may not have fallen could be weakened from the ice storm or there  may be branches that are broken that are laying precariously in the trees.  So, it may be a hard hat area under some trees.  Afterward, we chill down to more seasonal levels but not terribly cold.   The GFS is trying to throw out a half an inch of snow on Sunday morning but the low level temperatures will most likely be above freezing and the ground certainly above freezing so even if that happens, it won’t be a problem.  Storm threat Wednesday I would think would be in the early afternoon and the threat should be done pretty quickly as, if a line does form, it will be racing through the area and then we’ll be done though the winds will still be gusty as they shift to the northwest.

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009
  
   VALID 111200Z – 121200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION
   INTO THE NRN GULF STATES…
  
   …OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY…
  
   INTENSE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS…ON THE ORDER OF
   240-270M/12HR…WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION
   DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS STRONG SPEED MAX…120KT AT
   500MB…INTENSIFIES AND EJECTS ACROSS AR INTO OH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   AT THE SURFACE…DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL LIFT NEWD FROM NEAR STL AT
   12Z INTO SWRN LOWER MI BY 00Z.  A NARROW AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE…SFC DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S…WILL ADVECT NWD AHEAD
   OF SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES EAST ACROSS MO INTO
   IL/IND DURING THE MORNING HOURS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WIND SHIFT.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
   SOMEWHAT MARGINAL…STRONG/FOCUSED ASCENT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT…ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
   MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD…SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 50KT…ENHANCING THE THREAT
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  IN ALL LIKELIHOOD AN ELONGATED SQUALL LINE WILL
   EMERGE ALONG SHARP BOUNDARY FROM IL INTO WRN TN EARLY…THEN MOVE
   RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
   WRN PA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  AIRMASS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
   WILL PROVE SOMEWHAT HOSTILE FOR MAINTAINING STRONG/ORGANIZED
   UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS.  FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST…LAPSE
   RATES SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR
   ROBUST ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS GIVEN THAT SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE UPPER
   SUPPORT SHOULD SPREAD WELL NORTH OF THIS REGION.
  
   ..DARROW.. 02/10/2009

Financial Scandal Rocks Congress; Tropical Storm Laura in Ireland?
October 1, 2008

Tropical Storm Laura a Wild Irish Rose?

Tropical Storm Laura a Wild Irish Rose?

Louisville weather: The front came through Monday night and brought a little more rain than anticipated. Instead of a quarter inch being an exception it was more of the rule with isolated instances of up to a half inch. Good, we needed it. A vort lobe rotating around the low will bring some clouds on Wednesday and hold down the temperatures to the low to mid 60′s. Maybe a couple of insignificant brief light showers but thats about it. We stay cool through Friday morning. Still won’t be surprised to see outlying areas around 40. But we warm up heading into the weekend and Saturday night a warm front comes through with increasing clouds and perhaps some shower activity. But that feature will not spoil weekend afternoon activities. In short, the cool down won’t last too long as we continue to warm up heading into early next week.

Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Track 0930 5pm

Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Track 0930 5pm

Tropical Storm Laura: Tropical Storm Laura was a “subtropical storm” for awhile but then the boys that the NHC discovered that its structure was looking very tropical like and the temperatures aloft in the center were not all that cold so, even though its way north, they decided to make it a tropical storm. I see a broad central core on the satellite but also a lot of stuff that looks more like a cold-core low. This guy is not going to be tropical for long. Remember how Bertha went to Iceland and, more recently, Kyle went to New Brunswick and Quebec? Well, Laura is heading to Ireland! It should go back to subtropical status or more likely become a extratropical storm pretty quickly but it will still lash the green island with about 50 or 60 mph winds, rough seas and heavy rain. As I’ve said before, this is not a sign of global warming. Its a sign of nature doing its thing. The role of tropical cyclones is to transport heat and moisture from tropical regions to higher latitudes and these storms are performing beautifully. Don’t be fooled by reports that are sure to come that will erroneously point to global warming as the culprit. There may be other evidence that support global warming, but these storms (as well as Katrina) ain’t it. The National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion is at the bottom of the post.

They Did The Work But Who Made the Money?

They Did The Work But Who Made the Money?

On This Date In History: Financial problems are all in the news these days, but it’s nothing new. In recent years there was Enron but back in the 19th Century, there was the Credit Mobilier Construction Company. This is a pretty complex story but we’ll try to shorten it to the principal. (here’s a link to the details)

The US Government was keenly interested in building a transcontinental railroad. But, investors were not too enthused because the risks were enormous and investors don’t like a lot of risk. Two companies were formed to operate the railroads, the Central Pacific and the Union Pacific. The owners of the railroads both determined that the more likely road to profits were in construction rather than the actual operation. To ensure that they would make money, the two companies came up with a scheme in which they formed their own construction companies, which in turn charged the railroads to lay the track. That way, the railroads could get money from the government through subsidies and other incentives and then get paid again from the railroad. On top of that, they overcharged the railroads for the construction. On top of that, they bribed members of Congress with shares of stock and money. On this date in 1867, the contract between the Mobilier Contruction Company and the Union Pacific Railroad was completed which ended up paying $94 million for 1038 miles of track that probably should have cost about $50 million. Who got left holding the bag? The American taxpayer.

In the ensuing investigation brought to light by the New York Sun in an effort to unseat President US Grant, it was found that the owners of Credit Mobilier owned 367,000 shares of Union Pacific that had cost them virtually nothing. So, Congress investigated and couldn’t find much since there were dummies created to shield the identity of individuals and deals were done in such convoluted and secretive ways the investigators were flummoxed. Future president James A Garfield, House Speaker Schuyler Colfax and Massachusetts Congressman Oakes Ames were implicated. Ames received a censure from the Congress but, the government sued the Union Pacific for damages and the US Supreme Court ruled in 1878 that “more unmitigated frauds were never perpetrated on a helpless corporation by its managing directors.” Nevertheless, the court also ruled that since the government had received “all the advantages for which it has bargained” (I suppose the railroad got built) then there were no damages and therefore was not entitled to a thing.

So, there you have it….I’ve reported to you before about a financial panic with collapsing banks and a rescue plan in 1907…and now I’ve reported to you about how taxpayers got jobbed when the government got involved in private business enterprise. Politicians and tv foofs like to toss around the “great depression” at the drop of a hat and it concerns people, as it should. But, before you get too worked up about the current situation, be comforted that these things have happened before and it didn’t result in depression or huge long term disaster.

TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL122008 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008 A 1653 UTC

CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE CONFIRMS THAT LAURA STILL HAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 KT. IN ADDITION…THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE STORM’S CENTRAL FEATURES HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY SINCE THIS MORNING SO THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH LAURA IS CURRENTLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE…VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SOME THERMAL ADVECTION IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR AS COLD AIR STRATUS CLOUDS WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT… AND LAURA COULD BE FULLY NON-TROPICAL IN 18-24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS NOW OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 21C AND IS QUICKLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL ENERGY SOURCE…SO SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER…BAROCLINIC FORCING WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT AS THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES…AND SOME RE-STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. LAURA IS NOW MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH AT 010/12. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 5 DAYS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLIGHT WESTWARD BEND AT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES…BUT AFTER THAT LAURA IS ACCELERATED EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A 120-HOUR POSITION IS NOT GIVEN IN THIS FORECAST SINCE IT WOULD BE LOCATED EAST OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN OVER THE NORTH SEA…AND THE LOW COULD BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THEN ANYWAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 42.3N 48.6W 50 KT

12HR VT 01/0600Z 44.0N 48.0W 45 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

24HR VT 01/1800Z 46.8N 46.8W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

36HR VT 02/0600Z 50.0N 45.1W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT 02/1800Z 53.1N 42.4W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 03/1800Z 56.5N 31.5W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 04/1800Z 57.0N 17.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 05/1800Z…ABSORBED

$$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

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