Love Polygon in the White House; Mazatlan Gets What is Left of Hurricane Rick
October 22, 2009

Most "Active" President?
Most “Active” President?

On This Date in History: On October 22, 1919 a baby girl named Elizabeth Ann was born to Nan Britton. That was no big deal to most people, unless you were aspiring to become President of the United States.

The Lovely Couple

The Lovely Couple

Ohio Senator Warren G. Harding won his first term as Senator in 1914. He said he found the upper chamber of the Congress “a very pleasing place.” He was handsome and popular, having served in the Ohio State Senate and as Ohio Lt. Governor, though he lost a bid for Governor. He gave the nominated speech for President Taft at the 1912 Republican Convention. Let’s see…first term Senator from Midwest…handsome….popular…active in state politics and key speaker at a convention. Sound familiar?

Anyway, there was a snarl in the nominating process at the 1920 Republican convention and in one of those “smoke filled room” stories, party leaders agreed to make Harding the candidate. It is unclear if those party leaders would have even considered Harding had they known of his affection for the ladies.

Infintesimally Scorned Woman?

Florence Harding: Infintesimally Scorned Woman?

In 1927, 3 years after Harding’s death, Nan Britton published a book called The President’s Daughter. In it, she claimed that she had fallen in love with Harding when he was 45 and she was but 14! In 1917, Nan moved from Ohio to New York and wrote Harding for help in finding a job. She said he came to her and “tucked $30 in my brand new silk stocking.” She claimed that they had a long romance but that she had burned all of the love letters that he had written her as per an agreement between them. She said that he had burned her letters too but, after his death, the real Mrs. Harding, burned all of his correspondence and up in smoke went any corroborating evidence. But, the charge remained that Elizabeth Ann was the only child of Warren G. Harding.

Object of Presidential Affection?

Wife of Harding's Friend

Warren G. Harding love letters to his mistress did eventually show up. Trouble is, they weren’t to Nan Britton but instead belonged to Carrie Phillips, the Ohio wife of one of Harding’s best friends. Not sure if that makes Warren his best man. The letters show that Carrie “was the love of Harding’s life.” Their 10 year affair began in 1909 when the two couples were touring Europe. I’m trying to figure out what Mr. Phillips and Mrs. Harding were doing when Mr. Harding and Mrs. Phillips were horsing around. Anyway, Warren didn’t just write letters to Phillips, he wrote novels. They were often as long as 40 pages and were sexually explicit.

But…there’s more! People today often try to make up excuses for their behavior. Well, Warren’s not around to do that but he has modern clinical analysts to do his bidding. There is a school of thought that President Harding was a victim of satyriasis. That is an unmangeable, excessive need for sex. They point to the fact that he kept a room next to the Oval Office reserved for quick action with any number of women that may wander his way. They also suggest it as a reason for his habit of writing such long, rambling, graphic love letters.

Teapot Dome Steamrolled Harding to Death?

I don’t know about all of that but I do think that, aside from the Teapot Dome Scandal, this type of catting around may be a good reason why many scholars over the years tried to make the case that when he died in 1923 it was murder and not food poisoning followed by a heart attack. If it was murder, it sounds as if there would be a long list of suspects, starting with Mrs. Harding and then carrying on through a long list of women as well as their husbands, boyfriends and fathers. One thing for certain, if a love triangle involves 3 people, then Warren G. Harding would have to be described as being involved in a love polygon.

Fools Challenge Waves in Mazatlan-Click for AP Gallery

Fools Challenge Waves in Mazatlan-Click for AP Gallery

Hurricane Rick…No Tropical Storm Rick…No More  I reported yesterday that I wasn’t too enthused about Hurricane Rick, even when it was blowing and going as a full blown category 5 hurricane.  That’s because of its proximity of cold water and its slow movement.  The media tried to hype it up and make it sound as a fact that it was going to blow Baja California off the map.  Well, Tropical Storm Rick ran into cold water and has moved into northern Mexico north of Mazatlan.  It is already disappaiting over the foothills of the Sierra Madre.  The reports say that it may drop an inch of rain inland.  Sounds like no big deal, right? Well, some of the areas where the rain will fall are desert regions and so an inch of rain in a relatively short period of time can cause flooding concerns.

Friday 8 AM

Friday 8 AM

Weather Bottom Line:  We have a somewhat complicated situation coming up, but I suppose not too much so and also not unusual.  An area of low pressure will be coming out of the South-Central plains into our region from the mid-Mississippi Valley.  Also a cold front will be sinking down from the north.  As a warm front tries to lift our way on Thursday ahead of the front, high clouds will build up until over-running moisture is such that rain chances go up on Thursday night and they stick around all day Friday.  The GFS is throwing out 1.23″ of rain from Thurs. night into early Saturday morning while the NAM advertises 1.38″.  The NWS is suggesting something a bit more might be possible and that would certainly be a good call.  The weekend looks pretty good with clouds moving out by Saturday afternoon. It will be cool though with highs not getting to the 60′s until at least the early part of next week.

Wild Bill Hickok and Warren G. Harding: Keep your Friends Close and Your Back to the Wall
August 2, 2009

Choose Your Friends Wisely

Choose Your Friends Wisely

warren_g_hardingOn This Date in History: President Warren G. Harding died on this date in 1923 in San Francisco. Officially he died of a heart attack but speculation is that he may have been murdered. However, all subsequent investigations have determined that he was not poisoned, as conspiracy theorists suggest. Why would there be a conspiracy? Well, Harding had allowed his Secretary of the Interior to take over the Teapot Dome oil reserves in Wyoming from the Navy Department. The Secretary then allowed for two oilmen to develop the oil field and another in California. Murmuring began as the Secretary suddenly upgraded his lifestyle. Turns out he had received $400,000 in “gifts” from the two oilmen. The Teapot Dome Scandal was the first huge Federal Government corruption scandal in the 20th century, if not in all US history. Many more have followed.

Teapot Dome Steamrolled Harding to Death?

Teapot Dome Steamrolled Harding to Death?

 When told that his friends may be enriching themselves at the Federal trough, Harding is said to have exclaimed, “My…friends…they’re the ones that keep me walking the floors nights!” Herbert Hoover urged Harding to publicly expose the scandal, but Harding did not, fearing the certain the public uproar it would cause. Harding avoided the whole mess and possible impeachment by conveniently dying before the Teapot Dome Scandal really bubbled to the surface.  For some, however, the convenience of his death was a little too convenient.  There are those who speculate to this day that President Harding was murdered, committed suicide or was the victim of neglegent homicide.  That puts his death in the company of that of many celebrities, such as Jim Morrison and, more recently, Michael Jackson.  Somehow, when an average Joe expires unexpectedly, no one thinks twice.  But, for some, when it’s one of the popular kids in the class…it must be something much more interesting.

Hickok

 In 1876, Wild Bill Hickok was shot and killed in Deadwood, South Dakota. But, it wasn’t in a gunfight. Hickok was playing cards in Saloon Number 10 with his back to the door. A tinhorn gunman named Jack McCall came in an shot Wild Bill in the back of the head. Legend is that Hickok was holding a pair of black aces and black 8′s. That is now commonly known as the “dead man’s hand” though most of the time the suit is not noted and just aces and eights will suffice for the moniker.

Watch Your Back!

Watch Your Back!

Two things have eluded me.  One is how does someone named James Butler become “Wild Bill?” The other is why he had his back to the door. Hickok had a storied life as a gunfighter and his reputation made him a target for those wanting to make a name for themselves. So, he typically sat with his back to the wall.  It is especially odd that he was so careless when he knew that he had just taken McCall’s money at the poker table and  the very sore loser McCall  was on the loose and very angry tht Bill had taken all of his money.  I guess on August 2, 1876 he thought he was among friends. Seems Wild Bill and Warren G. needed to be more careful about their friends.

SPC Severe Outlook Tue 8am to Wed 8am

SPC Severe Outlook Tue 8am to Wed 8am

Weather Bottom Line:  The front late Saturday night certainly did not “pack a punch” as I heard one local weather foof say that it did.  There were some rumbles of thunder out to the west but the action basically fizzled as it moved through.  There just wasn’t enough instability and the boundary itself didn’t have enough slope and there were no shortwaves to help.  A different story perhaps with the next system.  Timing may be better…say Tuesday afternoon or evening….and there may be a shortwave to boot.  Until then we will probably be rain free and warm, but still below seasonal norms.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2009
  
   VALID 041200Z – 051200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS…
  
   …MIDWEST AND OH/TN/LOWER MO RIVER VALLEYS…
   COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
   THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY…AS BRUNT OF UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE ADJACENT GREAT LAKES.
   UNCERTAIN DAY 2 CONVECTIVE EVOLUTIONS INHERENTLY LIMIT CONFIDENCE OF
   DETAILS INTO TUESDAY…HOWEVER OVERALL SCENARIO/REASONABLE GUIDANCE
   CONSENSUS APPEARS TO WARRANT A BROAD CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
   THE REGION. INITIAL THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED TSTMS /PERHAPS SOME
   STRONG/ WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. AIDED
   BY A POTENTIAL MID LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
   ALOFT…PER 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE…THE REMNANTS OF THIS
   ACTIVITY AND/OR PERIPHERAL STRONG/SEVERE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR
   ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY. PRESUMING A RELATIVELY
   UNPERTURBED/NON-CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIRMASS…ADDITIONAL
   STRONG/SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH
   ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDWEST/UPPER OH VALLEY IN VICINITY OF
   THE ROUGHLY WEST-EAST SURFACE FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
  
   …LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES…
   A SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED/LESSER CONFIDENCE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST
   WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES VICINITY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES…MAINLY ATTRIBUTABLE
   TO MORE MODEST INSTABILITY. NEVERTHELESS…DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE
   HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE…AND PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD ULTIMATELY
   WARRANT A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.
  
   …ORE…
   UPPER HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY FALL OVER ORE ON TUESDAY AS PERSISTENT
   UPPER LOW MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN CA COAST. A
   MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AGAIN
   FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
  
   ..GUYER.. 08/02/2009

A Presidential Love Polygon; Friday Looks Lousy
October 22, 2008

Rainfall Total Forecast Through Sunday Morning

Rainfall Total Forecast Through Sunday Morning

The National Weather Service in Wilimgton put out a Freeze Warning for their area for Tuesday night, which includes our extreme Northeast counties of Gallatin and Trimble counties. Our area had a frost advisory for Jackson and Jennings counties, put out by the Indianapolis office and then our extreme eastern counties were put under the same advisory by the Louisville office. I don’t get it. Our dewpoints were in the 20′s and clouds were overspreading the area. As of this writing early Wednesday morning, I have my doubts. Nevertheless, high clouds will dull the sun on Wednesday and Thursday they will thicken up as the day goes on. We think that general rainfall will hold off until Thursday night and then carry through a chilly and wet Friday with Saturday not being much better, though improving. Sunday is the pick of the weekend. There is some indication in some of the data that suggests a sharp chill down early next week. Let’s wait and see how it shakes out. The computers sometimes get confused during a seasonal change. Invest 91in the tropics has really taken a beating but continues to lurk just off the coast of Belize, though nothing is imminent. It’s so uninspiring that there aren’t even any spaghetti models to show.

Most "Active" President?

Most "Active" President?

On This Date in History: On October 22, 1919 a baby girl named Elizabeth Ann was born to Nan Britton. That was no big deal to most people, unless you were aspiring to become President of the United States.

The Lovely Couple

The Lovely Couple

Ohio Senator Warren G. Harding won his first term as Senator in 1914. He said he found the upper chamber of the Congress “a very pleasing place.” He was handsome and popular, having served in the Ohio State Senate and as Ohio Lt. Governor, though he lost a bid for Governor. He gave the nominated speech for President Taft at the 1912 Republican Convention. Let’s see…first term Senator from Midwest…handsome….popular…active in state politics and key speaker at a convention. Sound familiar?

Anyway, there was a snarl in the nominating process at the 1920 Republican convention and in one of those “smoke filled room” stories, party leaders agreed to make Harding the candidate. It is unclear if those party leaders would have even considered Harding had they known of his affection for the ladies.

In 1927, 3 years after Harding’s death, Nan Britton published a book

Infintesimally Scorned Woman?

Florence Harding: Infintesimally Scorned Woman?

called The President’s Daughter. In it, she claimed that she had fallen in love with Harding when he was 45 and she was but 14! In 1917, Nan moved from Ohio to New York and wrote Harding for help in finding a job. She said he came to her and “tucked $30 in my brand new silk stocking.” She claimed that they had a long romance but that she had burned all of the love letters that he had written her as per an agreement between them. She said that he had burned her letters too but, after his death, the real Mrs. Harding, burned all of his correspondence and up in smoke went any corroborating evidence. But, the charge remained that Elizabeth Ann was the only child of Warren G. Harding.

Object of Presidential Affection?

Wife of Harding's Friend

Warren G. Harding love letters to his mistress did eventually show up. Trouble is, they weren’t to Nan Britton but instead belonged to Carrie Phillips, the Ohio wife of one of Harding’s best friends. Not sure if that makes Warren his best man. The letters show that Carrie “was the love of Harding’s life.” Their 10 year affair began in 1909 when the two couples were touring Europe. I’m trying to figure out what Mr. Phillips and Mrs. Harding were doing when Mr. Harding and Mrs. Phillips were horsing around. Anyway, Warren didn’t just write letters to Phillips, he wrote novels. They were often as long as 40 pages and were sexually explicit.

But…there’s more! People today often try to make up excuses for their behavior. Well, Warren’s not around to do that but he has modern clinical analysts to do his bidding. There is a school of thought that President Harding was a victim of satyriasis. That is an unmangeable, excessive need for sex. They point to the fact that he kept a room next to the Oval Office reserved for quick action with any number of women that may wander his way. They also suggest it as a reason for his habit of writing such long, rambling, graphic love letters.

I don’t know about all of that but I do think that, aside from the Teapot Dome Scandal, this type of catting around may be a good reason why many scholars over the years tried to make the case that when he died in 1923 it was murder and not food poisoning followed by a heart attack. If it was murder, it sounds as if there would be a long list of suspects, starting with Mrs. Harding and then carrying on through a long list of women as well as their husbands, boyfriends and fathers. One thing for certain, if a love triangle involves 3 people, then Warren G. Harding would have to be described as being involved in a love polygon.

Tropical Storm Hanna, Josephine and Ike: Better Friends Than Bill and Warren
September 2, 2008

For a radar loop of the Tropical Depression Gustav or a Tropical Storm Hanna radar loop, CLICK HERE and navigate to your desired location, all the way to street level. Click “animate” to loop.

Tropical Storm Hanna NHC Forecast Track 11AM

Tropical Storm Hanna NHC Forecast Track 11AM

Late Tuesday morning three tropical storms are roaming the Atlantic.  Tropical

Tropical Storm Ike NHC Forecast Track 11AM 0902

Tropical Storm Ike NHC Forecast Track 11AM 0902

Storm Hanna has stayed too long at the fair.  The idea was supposed to be that Hanna would start moving Northwest and then swing up into the SE coast. But, Hanna stayed over the same area for too long over the same area, producing some upwelling of colder water.  More importantly, there is a shear from the north that is ripping it up and it has been downgraded to Tropical Storm status.  The Intensity Probability Table indicates not only a 50-50 chance  of it being a hurricane, the odds also suggest that it will only regain

Tropical Storm Hanna Intensity Probability Table 0902 11AM

Tropical Storm Hanna Intensity Probability Table 0902 11AM

itself back to cat 1 status if it does so.  The angle of attack will make a for a very difficult landfall prediction.  The track was shifted just slightly back to the west and that resulted in a shift of the landfall forecast back to  just north of Savannah into South Carolina.  The spaghetti model consensus though is south of Savannah.

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0902 12Z

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0902 12Z

I still am of the early opinion….at this point its more of a guess or “feeling” that

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model 0902 12Z

Tropical Storm Ike Spaghetti Model 0902 12Z

Tropical Storm Ike will be a trouble maker.  It is forecast to increase in strength and the track will be around a ridge that is forecast to drive it west.  Tropical Storm Ike is a long way off and therefore there are many things that can happen atmospherically.  Even farther out is Tropical Storm Josephine.  It virtually has the entire Atlantic Ocean to travel over.  Regarding Ike and Josephine, while the time factor does open the door for a changing environment and steering pattern, climatologically, this time of year the region in which they formed has been a favored area for some of the most significant landfalling US tropical cyclones.  So these guys should not be blown off.  The National Hurricane Center Discussion for Tropical Storm Hanna and the Tropical Storm Ike Discussion can be found at the bottom.

Louisville Weather:  The troubles of Hanna are actually a potential benefit to our area as well. Because Hanna is forecast to be less formidable, then the chances of our getting subsidence (sinking air) or even has much advection of dry air from the northeast as a front approaches. Therefore, the prospects of our getting some rain from Gustav drawn up along the front is much better.  As of noon today, we are forecasting perhaps some isolated stuff on Wed and Thursday and more scattered activity on Friday.  Short-wave ridging on Thursday may hamper storms but the chance is there. We need the rain: My hydrandia needs it.  I’m tired of watering at midnight.

Victim Of Conspiracy?

Victim Of Conspiracy?

  On This Date in History: President Warren G. Harding died in San Francisco in 1923. Officially he died of a heart attack but speculation is that he may have been murdered. However, all subsequent investigations have determined that he was not poisoned, as conspiracy theorists suggest. Why would there be a conspiracy? Well, Harding had allowed his Secretary of the Interior to take over from the Navy Department the Teapot Dome oil reserve in Wyoming. The Secretary then allowed for two oilmen to develop the oil field there and another in California. Murmuring began as the Secretary suddenly upgraded his lifestyle. Turns out he had received $400,000 in “gifts” from the two oilmen. The Teapot Dome Scandal was the first huge Federal Government corruption scandal in the 20th century if not in all US history. Many more have followed. When told that his friends may be enriching themselves at the Federal Trough, Harding is said to have exclaimed, “My…friends…they’re the ones that keep me walking the floors nights!” Herbert Hoover urged Harding to publicly expose the scandal but Harding did not in fear of the public uproar. Harding avoided the whole mess and possible impeachment by conveniently dying before the Teapot Dome Scandal really bubbled to the surface.

Bill Sat In the Wrong Chair

Bill Sat In the Wrong Chair

In 1876, Wild Bill Hickok was shot and killed in Deadwood, South Dakota. It wasn’t in a gunfight though. Hickok was playing cards in Saloon Number 10 with his back to the door. A tinhorn gunman named Jack McCall came in an shot Wild Bill in the back of the head. Legend is that Hickok was holding a pair of black aces and black 8′s. That is now commonly known as the “dead man’s hand” though most of the time the suit is not noted and just aces and eights will suffice for the moniker. Two things have eluded me: One is how does someone named James Butler become “Wild Bill?” The other is why he had his back to the door. Hickok had a storied life as a gunfighter and his reputation made him a target for those wanting to make a name for themselves. So, he typically sat with his back to the wall. I guess on August 2, 1876 he thought he was among friends.

Seems Wild Bill and Warren G. needed to be more careful about their friends.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

HANNA HAS FINALLY SUCCUMBED TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND A SHRINKING CDO FEATURE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 60 KT…BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION…THIS
MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE HANNA THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY
ESTIMATE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP EDGE OR DEFORMATION
AXIS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRRUS CANOPY SUGGESTING THAT THE
SHEAR WILL PERSIST IN THE SHORT-TERM…AND SOME ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  IN ABOUT 24
HOURS…GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHEAR WEAKENING AND THIS COULD ALLOW
HANNA TO RESTRENGTHEN.  HOWEVER…GIVEN THE PRESENT LACK OF
ORGANIZATION…IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW MUCH STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BUT SHOWS HANNA BECOMING A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN ABOUT
36 HOURS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.  IN FACT…IF ONE CONSULTS THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY
PRODUCT INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE…IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THERE IS
NEARLY AN EQUAL PROBABILITY OF HANNA BEING A TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE AT DAY 3.

HANNA CONTINUES TO MEANDER BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF AN INITIAL
MOTION IS 250/05. SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT
HANNA SHOULD START MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. HANNA SHOULD ACCELERATE
NORTHWESTWARD AT DAYS 2 TO 3 AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. DYNAMICAL
TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…HANNA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA… GEORGIA…OR SOUTH CAROLINA
IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THE EXPECTED ANGLE OF
APPROACH AND TRACK UNCERTAINTY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO NARROW DOWN
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT AREA. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AND ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/1500Z 21.0N  73.5W    60 KT
12HR VT     03/0000Z 21.4N  73.7W    55 KT
24HR VT     03/1200Z 22.3N  74.2W    60 KT
36HR VT     04/0000Z 23.6N  75.3W    65 KT
48HR VT     04/1200Z 25.1N  76.8W    70 KT
72HR VT     05/1200Z 29.5N  80.5W    75 KT
96HR VT     06/1200Z 36.5N  80.0W    35 KT…INLAND
120HR VT     07/1200Z 45.5N  70.0W    25 KT…INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IKE HAS A COMPACT AND
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
PRIMARILY BEEN LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 0847 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED THAT THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
HAS EXPANDED A BIT…AND A FEW 50-55 KT BARBS WERE LOCATED WITHIN
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SINCE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB…THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED CONSERVATIVELY TO 50 KT.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF
IKE. MOST MODELS…EXCEPT FOR THE GFDN…ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
WITHIN THE FIRST 48 HOURS THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY DIVERGE BEYOND THAT TO
DAY 5. IN FACT…WITH A LATITUDINAL SPREAD OF ONLY 5 DEGREES AT DAY
5…WE COULDN’T HAVE ASKED FOR BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE.
THE STORM HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED WITH AN AVERAGE MOTION OF
280/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS IKE IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT WILL MOVE WEST IN TANDEM
WITH THE CYCLONE. SOME OF THE MODELS… PARTICULARLY THE GFDL AND
HWRF…SHOW A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD BEND AND BRING IKE VERY CLOSE TO OR
OVER HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER…BOTH OF THESE MODELS BRING IKE TO A
MAJOR HURRICANE…AND SINCE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DOES
NOT CALL FOR SUCH STRENGTHENING…I PREFER TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS.

THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES THAT RELATIVELY DRY
AIR ALMOST COMPLETELY SURROUNDS IKE. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM…IT IS PROBABLY MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DRY AIR AND WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN SO UNTIL IT CAN DEVELOP JUST ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION
TO ISOLATE ITSELF. THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE SYSTEM IN 48 HOURS.
THE GFDL AND HWRF APPARENTLY IGNORE SUCH SHEAR AND FORECAST IKE TO
BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS. WHILE THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
A POSSIBILITY…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/1500Z 18.9N  45.0W    50 KT
12HR VT     03/0000Z 19.3N  47.3W    55 KT
24HR VT     03/1200Z 19.9N  50.3W    60 KT
36HR VT     04/0000Z 20.5N  53.5W    70 KT
48HR VT     04/1200Z 21.0N  56.5W    75 KT
72HR VT     05/1200Z 21.5N  62.5W    80 KT
96HR VT     06/1200Z 21.5N  68.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     07/1200Z 21.5N  74.0W    90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/KNABB

Choose Your Friends Wisely
August 2, 2008

Bill Sat In the Wrong Chair

The Hickok story is at the bottom. I just like his picture and put it first. The T’storm watches were lame. Funny thing was they issued 788 and the Louisville Weather Office cancelled it early. But, they don’t have jurisdiction in Lawrence, Jennings and Jackson counties. That is Indianapolis’ area. I asked about those and they ignored me. Then the SPC issues another watch that includes Jackon and Jennings until 5 am! At one AM, Indy drops Lawrence from watch 788 and then drops Jackson and Jennings from the second one. In the meantime, strong storms had been moving along from Orange County through Crawford County and they looked pretty menacing. At about 1:07 AM a t’storm warning gets issued for those. So, I ended up manning the radars all night. All of this stuff will move out of the area and the weekend will see temperatures up around 90 but the humidity will be reduced somewhat so it won’t be quite so stifling. Enjoy it. The ridge with the heat and humidity returns for the first part of next week and I bet someone hits the century mark.

 

On This Date in History: President Warren G. Harding died in San Francisco in 1923. Officially he died of a heart attack but speculation is that he may have been murdered. However, all subsequent investigations have determined that he was not poisoned, as conspiracy theorists suggest. Why would there be a conspiracy? Well, Harding had allowed his Secretary of the Interior to take over from the Navy Department the Teapot Dome oil reserve in Wyoming. The Secretary then allowed for two oilmen to develop the oil field there and another in California. Murmuring began as the Secretary suddenly upgraded his lifestyle. Turns out he had received $400,000 in “gifts” from the two oilmen. The Teapot Dome Scandal was the first huge Federal Government corruption scandal in the 20th century if not in all US history. Many more have followed. When told that his friends may be enriching themselves at the Federal Trough, Harding is said to have exclaimed, “My…friends…they’re the ones that keep me walking the floors nights!” Herbert Hoover urged Harding to publicly expose the scandal but Harding did not in fear of the public uproar. Harding avoided the whole mess and possible impeachment by conveniently dying before the Teapot Dome Scandal really bubbled to the surface.

In 1876, Wild Bill Hickok was shot and killed in Deadwood, South Dakota. It wasn’t in a gunfight though. Hickok was playing cards in Saloon Number 10 with his back to the door. A tinhorn gunman named Jack McCall came in an shot Wild Bill in the back of the head. Legend is that Hickok was holding a pair of black aces and black 8′s. That is now commonly known as the “dead man’s hand” though most of the time the suit is not noted and just aces and eights will suffice for the moniker. Two things have eluded me: One is how does someone named James Butler become “Wild Bill?” The other is why he had his back to the door. Hickok had a storied life as a gunfighter and his reputation made him a target for those wanting to make a name for themselves. So, he typically sat with his back to the wall. I guess on August 2, 1876 he thought he was among friends. Seems Wild Bill and Warren G. needed to be more careful about their friends.

Make Sure You Know Who Your Friends Are
August 2, 2007

If you are looking for cooler conditions, head for the North Pole because we’re not cooling off anytime soon. Though, if you do go that far North, you may need to check with the Russian embassy since the Russians have declared the North Pole belongs to them. Rain is possible in small doses on Saturday with a dying front but don’t build an ark just yet. The big fat ridge over us will snuff any frontal boundaries from doing any damage and this heat wave will continue for the foreseeable future. A tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean looks pretty impressive on satellite but the Hurricane Hunters didn’t find a closed low. Wouldn’t be surprised if we have a depression, at least, for Friday or maybe later.

On This Date in History: President Warren G. Harding died in San Francisco in 1923. Officially he died of a heart attack but speculation is that he may have been murdered. However, all subsequent investigations have determined that he was not poisoned, as conspiracy theorists suggest. Why would there be a conspiracy? Well, Harding had allowed his Secretary of the Interior to take over from the Navy Department the Teapot Dome oil reserve in Wyoming. The Secretary then allowed for two oilmen to develop the oil field there and another in California. Murmuring began as the Secretary suddenly upgraded his lifestyle. Turns out he had received $400,000 in “gifts” from the two oilmen. The Teapot Dome Scandal was the first huge Federal Government corruption scandal in the 20th century if not in all US history. Many more have followed. When told that his friends may be enriching themselves at the Federal Trough, Harding is said to have exclaimed, “My…friends…they’re the ones that keep me walking the floors nights!” Herbert Hoover urged Harding to publicly expose the scandal but Harding did not in fear of the public uproar. Harding avoided the whole mess and possible impeachment by conveniently dying before the Teapot Dome Scandal really bubbled to the surface.

In 1876, Wild Bill Hickok was shot and killed in Deadwood, South Dakota. It wasn’t in a gunfight though. Hickok was playing cards in Saloon Number 10 with his back to the door. A tinhorn gunman named Jack McCall came in an shot Wild Bill in the back of the head. Legend is that Hickok was holding a pair of black aces and black 8′s. That is now commonly known as the “dead man’s hand” though most of the time the suit is not noted and just aces and eights will suffice for the moniker. Two things have eluded me: One is how does someone named James Butler become “Wild Bill?” The other is why he had his back to the door. Hickok had a storied life as a gunfighter and his reputation made him a target for those wanting to make a name for themselves. So, he typically sat with his back to the wall. I guess on August 2, 1876 he thought he was among friends. Seems Wild Bill and Warren G. needed to be more careful about their friends.

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