Tom Brady and Peyton Manning: Too Old To Win Another Super Bowl? July 15, 2010

Are Manning and Brady Too Old To Win Another Super Bowl?

Stallworth's Big Catch in the 1980 Superbowl Landed Him on the Cover of Sports Illustrated

On this Date in History:  When I was a kid, I hated the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The sole reason was that they knocked the Raiders out of the playoffs with the lucky “immaculate reception.”  Then they got so good and always kept the Houston Oilers out of the Super Bowl.  While I didn’t like the team, I secretly really admired and liked the players.  I loved Lynn Swann when he was at USC.  I never really liked Penn State after the Nittany Lions embarrassed the Texas Longhorns in the 1972 Cotton Bowl.  The star in the 30-6 victory was running back Lydell Mitchell but Franco Harris made some big runs  for Joe Paterno so I didn’t like Franco forever.   Vietnam Veteran Rocky Bleier  and Steeler’s running back was cool but I didn’t want to admit it.  And then there was John Stallworth.  I didn’t like him because it seemed the Steelers just got better each year with more good players.  When he joined the Steelers in the 74-75 season, they were already on the rise yet, somehow they got another good receiver.  John Stallworth was born on this date in 1952 and he went on to be elected to the National Football League Hall of Fame in 2002.  In a Superbowl that I thought was a great game that seems to get overlooked, on January 20, 1980 he caught a 73 yard touchdown pass from Terry Bradshaw that sealed the fate of the underdog but competitive Los Angeles Rams.   John Stallworth went on to a life off the field that is every bit as successful as it was on the field as he now heads up Genesis II, a firm that devotes itself to philanthropic efforts.

Terry Bradshaw Was Very Tough. Click For Video of October 10, 1975 Cheap Shot Sack by Joe "Turkey" Jones That Literally Could Have Killed Bradshaw, who came back to win two more Superbowls in '79 and '80

Now, Terry Bradshaw was the starting and winning quarterback of the Steelers in the 1980 Superbowl and was on tough son-of-a-gun.  I hated him because he was the Steelers quarterback but he was damn good and, even as a Hall of Famer, he doesn’t get the credit he deserves.  He survived what could have been a fatal sack by Joe ”Turkey” Jones in 1976 to come back and win his 3rd and 4th championships.  If you are too young to remember, I encourage you to click on the photo to the left for some video.  The win in 1980  was Bradshaw’s fourth championship at the age of 32.  I heard a radio show today that was questioning whether or not Tom Brady at 33 was too old to win another Superbowl.  They didn’t really talk about Peyton Manning but you have to put him in the same category because he’s a year older than Brady.  When you look at past history, a kneejerk reaction might be that the odds are against him.  But, a close examination may result in a different conclusion.   Its certainly not impossible and every quarterback is different, though Brady has suffered a serious injury in his career.  In the most recent Superbowl, winning quarterback Drew Brees was 31 years old while Peyton Manning was just shy of his 34th birthday.  Manning had won the big one a few years before at age 30.   Thirteen of the 44 winning quarterbacks in Superbowl history have been 33 years of age or older.  That would suggest that Brady has a little less than a 1 in 3 chance.  However, 14 who were 33 or older ended up on the short end.

John Unitas Played In an Era When Quarterbacks Were Not Protected By The Rules Yet Survived Long Enough to Win a Superbowl at age 37

Of 88 starting NFL quarterbacks in the Superbowl, 62 have been younger than 33 years old.  So, it seems that getting there at age 33 is more difficult than winning it once you get there.  When you look at it even deeper, you find that of the 13 older quarterbacks to have been victorious, Bart Starr, Len Dawson and John Unitas represent four of the veteran champions as they won 4 of the first 5 Superbowls.  So, from 1972 on, we’re down to nine thirty-33 or better quarterbacks to wear the Superbowl ring.  The final 9 included some multiple winners.  John Elway won twice at at 37 and 38.  Jim Plunkett was 33 the first time around and 36 when he captured his second Superbowl title.  Roger Staubach, Joe Theismann, Joe Montana, Steve Young and Brad Johnson are the other winners who were at least 33 years old.   So there are just 10 men who have won the big prize as a starting quarterback when they were older than 32. 

Ben Roethlisberger is the Youngest Quarterback to Win the Superbowl

Now, it may appear on the surface that it’s more improbable to win a Superbowl with a young quarterback and certainly a rookie.  But the average winning age of a quarterback in the Superbowl is 29.95 years while the average age of the quarterback for the losing side is 30.   The youngest quarterback to win a Superbowl was Ben Roethlisberger who was just 23.  The next youngest….Tom Brady at 24.  But, 15 of the 44 Superbowl winners have been under the age of 28.  To be sure, the total is limited to a fewer number of exceptional young quarterbacks when you consider that Roethlisberger, Troy Aikman and Terry Bradshaw had all won two Superbowls before their 28th birthday.  And…oh by the way…Tom Brady had won 3 Superbowls before the ripe old age of 28.  Nevertheless, the trend seems to be younger because 9 out of the last 10 Superbowls have been won by a quarterback under 33 years old, including the last 7 in a row.   And, in those last 10 years, only 3 winners have been 30 or older.  

George Blanda Was Paid $600 For First Year in the NFL in 1949; He was still tossing touchdowns against players less than half his age in the 1970's.

 The recent trend seems to say that youth is being served in the NFL.  But, the NFL has never had a young quarterback win as much as Tom Brady.  Also, it seems that guys in the early days of the Superbowl like Unitas and Starr and Earl Morrall seemed to fit the “old man” moniker that  they gained in their mid to late 30′s.   Today’s 30 something quarterbacks seem more youthful than their predecessors.  While age may be working against veterans like Bret Favre who last won a Superbowl in 1997, I think that thinking that talented individuals like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning (who are well into their 30′s) have every bit of an opportunity to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.  Brady has been injured seriously once but he and Manning both tend to avoid big hits.  Kurt Warner was 38 when he retired and he could still bring it.  Warren Moon was still chucking the most beautiful, tightest spirals the league has ever seen at 44 and Elway went out as a champion and fastball chucker at age 38.  Athletes are individuals and their individual circumstance has more to do with their success later in their careers than simply a calendar.  George Blanda was an NFL quarterback in the 1940′s, 1950′s, 1960′s and 1970′s.  His first year he even played linebacker for the Bears as well as quarterback and placekicker.  Blanda was still coming off the bench to bail out the Raiders in the mid-70′s with his arm and kicking field goals until they finally ran him off after his 48th birthday and after 26 seasons!  Tom Brady is a long way from reaching the elderly status of “Old Man Blanda” and both he and Peyton Manning have much left in the tank.

Here is a list of Superbowl starting Quarterbacks:

I – 1/15/67
Bart Starr, Green Bay Packers – Alabama (*33)
Len Dawson, Kansas City Chiefs – Purdue (31)

II – 1/14/68
Bart Starr, Green Bay Packers – Alabama (34)
Daryle Lamonica, Oakland Raiders – Notre Dame (26)

III – 1/12/69
Joe Namath, New York Jets – Alabama (25)
Earl Morrall, Baltimore Colts – Michigan State (34)

IV – 1/11/70
Len Dawson, Kansas City Chiefs – Purdue (34)
Joe Kapp, Minnesota Vikings – California (31)

V – 1/17/71
Johnny Unitas, Baltimore Colts – Louisville (37)
Craig Morton, Dallas Cowboys – California (27)

VI – 1/16/72
Roger Staubach, Dallas Cowboys – Navy (29)
Bob Griese, Miami Dolphins – Purdue (26)

VII – 1/14/73
Bob Griese, Miami Dolphins – Purdue (27)
Bill Kilmer, Washington Redskins – UCLA (33)

VIII – 1/13/74
Bob Griese, Miami Dolphins – Purdue (28)
Fran Tarkenton, Minnesota Vikings – Georgia (33)

IX – 1/12/75
Terry Bradshaw, Pittsburgh Steelers – Louisiana Tech (26)
Fran Tarkenton, Minnesota Vikings – Georgia (34)

X – 1/18/76
Terry Bradshaw, Pittsburgh Steelers – Louisiana Tech (27)
Roger Staubach, Dallas Cowboys – Navy (33)

XI – 1/9/77
Ken Stabler, Oakland Raiders – Alabama (31)
Fran Tarkenton, Minnesota Vikings – Georgia (36)

XII – 1/15/78
Roger Staubach, Dallas Cowboys – Navy (35)
Craig Morton, Denver Broncos – California (34)

XIII – 1/21/79
Terry Bradshaw, Pittsburgh Steelers – Louisiana Tech (30)
Roger Staubach, Dallas Cowboys – Navy (36)

XIV – 1/20/80
Terry Bradshaw, Pittsburgh Steelers – Louisiana Tech (31)
Vince Ferragamo, Los Angeles Rams – California, Nebraska (25)

XV – 1/25/81
Jim Plunkett, Oakland Raiders – Stanford (33)
Ron Jaworski, Philadelphia Eagles – Youngstown State (29)

XVI – 1/24/82
Joe Montana, San Francisco 49ers – Notre Dame (25)
Ken Anderson, Cincinnati Bengals – Augustana (IL) (32)

XVII – 1/30/83
Joe Theismann, Washington Redskins – Notre Dame (33)
David Woodley, Miami Dolphins – Louisiana State (24)

XVIII – 1/22/84
Jim Plunkett, Los Angeles Raiders – Stanford (36)
Joe Theismann, Washington Redskins – Notre Dame (34)

XIX – 1/20/85
Joe Montana, San Francisco 49ers – Notre Dame (28)
Dan Marino, Miami Dolphins – Pittsburgh (23)

XX – 1/26/86
Jim McMahon, Chicago Bears – BYU (26)
Tony Eason, New England Patriots – Illinois (26)

XXI – 1/25/87
Phil Simms, New York Giants – Morehead State (32)
John Elway, Denver Broncos – Stanford (26)

XXII – 1/31/88
Doug Williams, Washington Redskins – Grambling (32)
John Elway, Denver Broncos – Stanford (27)

XXIII – 1/22/89
Joe Montana, San Francisco 49ers – Notre Dame (32)
Boomer Esiason, Cincinnati Bengals – Maryland (27)

XXIV – 1/28/90
Joe Montana, San Francisco 49ers – Notre Dame (33)
John Elway, Denver Broncos – Stanford (29)

XXV – 1/27/91
Jeff Hostetler, New York Giants – West Virginia (29)
Jim Kelly, Buffalo Bills – Miami (FL) (30)

XXVI – 1/26/92
Mark Rypien, Washington Redskins – Washington State (30)
Jim Kelly, Buffalo Bills – Miami (FL) (31)

XXVII – 1/31/93
Troy Aikman, Dallas Cowboys – Oklahoma, UCLA (26)
Jim Kelly, Buffalo Bills – Miami (FL) (32)

XXVIII – 1/30/94
Troy Aikman, Dallas Cowboys – Oklahoma, UCLA (27)
Jim Kelly, Buffalo Bills – Miami (FL) (33)

XXIX – 1/29/95
Steve Young, San Francisco 49ers – BYU (33)
Stan Humphries, San Diego Chargers – NE Louisiana (29)

XXX – 1/28/96
Troy Aikman, Dallas Cowboys – Oklahoma, UCLA (29)
Neil O’Donnell, Pittsburgh Steelers – Maryland (29)

XXXI – 1/26/97
Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers – Southern Mississippi (27)
Drew Bledsoe, New England Patriots – Washington State (24)

XXXII – 1/25/98
John Elway, Denver Broncos – Stanford (37)
Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers – Southern Mississippi (28)

XXXIII – 1/31/99
John Elway, Denver Broncos – Stanford (38)
Chris Chandler, Atlanta Falcons – Washington (33)

XXXIV – 1/30/00
Kurt Warner, St. Louis Rams – Northern Iowa (28)
Steve McNair, Tennessee Titans – Alcorn State (26)

XXXV – 1/28/01
Trent Dilfer, Baltimore Ravens – Fresno State (28)
Kerry Collins, New York Giants – Penn State (28)

XXXVI – 2/3/02
Tom Brady, New England Patriots – Michigan (24)
Kurt Warner, St. Louis Rams – Northern Iowa (30)

XXXVII – 1/26/03
Brad Johnson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Florida State (34)
Rich Gannon, Oakland Raiders – Delaware (37)

XXXVIII – 2/1/04
Tom Brady, New England Patriots – Michigan (26)
Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers – Louisiana-Lafayette (29)

XXXVIX – 2/6/05
Tom Brady, New England Patriots – Michigan (27)
Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia – Syracuse (28)

XL – 2/5/06
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – Miami (OH) (23)
Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle – Boston College (30)

XLI – 2/4/07
Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts – Tennessee (30)
Rex Grossman, Chicago Bears – Florida (26)

XLII – 2/3/08
Eli Manning, New York Giants – Ole Miss (27)
Tom Brady, New England Patriots – Michigan (30)

XLIII – 2/7/09
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – (26)
Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals – (37)

XLIV – 2/7/09
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints - (31)
Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts - (33)

 Weather Bottom Line:  It’s going to be perhaps the hottest day of the year.  Humidity will be relatively high for having afternoon highs in the upper 90′s.  I”m from Houston and grew up on the Gulf Coast and lived there much of my life.  I often scoff at some of the whining we get around here when its humid.  But this time, it’s gonna be tough even for those of who are used to it.  While we’ll get a break with a front that will bring rain and t’storm chances Thurday night into the weekend, I suspect that we may be heading into another extended period of hot and humid conditions.  This is certainly not the same as last year when we had zero 90 degree days in July for the first time in history.  Maybe this is Global Warming’s Revenge.  Be careful and keep an eye on the elderly and others who may have difficulty.  Take care of the pets and livestock and for goodness sakes, don’t go and leave your child in the car…even for just a few minutes.

Saints: Best Football Song Ever, Drink That Dixie Down January 23, 2010

Outside the Haitian Community Hospital, which is overflowing and running out of water. Edge will be installing a water filtration system this week for the hospital.Wednesday scenes in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. (Kylene Lloyd, The Courier-Journal) January 21, 2010 (cj/cj)

Haiti remains in great need and destitute.  People are asking for donations but you really aren’t too sure how your money will be used.  Help support a group who is bringing clean water to Haiti now and in the future.  You will know where your money is going, who is using it and how it is being used.  Several years ago, New Orleans had too much water in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.  All was thought to be lost, especially the football team.   But, as a beacon to Haiti that recovery is possible, the Saints stand on the doorstep to the Super Bowl.  If they make it, Hell will certainly freeze over. 

A great new song about the New Orleans Saints and their quest for the elusive Super Bowl is out.  It’s called, The Night We Drank That Dixie Down and is fabulous.  To truly appreciate it, one might want to know the history of the Saints.

Tom Dempsey had half a foot and no hand but still perservered to the record books

New Orleans was awarded a franchise on November 1, 1966, which is All-Saints Day.  They went 5-1 in the preseason of 1967 and on the opening kickoff of the first game in Saints history, the kick-off was returned for a touchdown.  But, that first game kinda set the stage for the franchise.  Hope rises every year followed by disappointment.  The Saints lost that first game, but did manage to win 3 games that year.  The next two years saw improvement with 4 wins followed by 5 wins in 1969.   Their 1970 first round draft pick became a star for…the Houston Oilers.  The team fell to two wins but the season included the most celebrated event in Saints’ history for years to come.  Tom Dempsey kicked an NFL record 63 yard field goal(video)  to beat the Detroit Lions.  That record has been tied by Jason Elam of Denver kicking at the Mile High altitude of Denver, but it has not been surpassed.  

Archie Manning Loved In New Orleans But Saints Never Won Much

In the 1970′s, the Saints won a total of 42 games…an average of just 4 per year.  1979 was the first non-losing season in team history as they finished 8-8.  The first 5 years of the 1980′s were a little better with 29 wins.  By that time, the Saints had gone through several big name players such as Billy Kilmer, Jim Taylor, Archie Manning, George Rogers, Earl Campbell and Ken Stabler.  They also had headline coaches such as Dick Nolan, Hank Stram and Bum Phillips.  Still the highlight of the Saints remained Dempsey’s 63 yard field goal.  The team then went from sad sacks to not too bad and hope was born when Jim Mora took over in 1986. 

Mora asks, "Playoffs?"

After going 7-9 in Mora’s first season, the Saints won 12 games and made the playoffs.  Both the win total and the playoff appearance were firsts for New Orleans.  But, they lost in the playoffs.  The next two years were teasers with 9 wins coming in ’88 and ’89 but they did not make the playoffs.  Still, Saint’s fans were optimistic. In 1990, they were a .500 team but still made the playoffs and promtly lost.  Double-digit wins in 1991 and 1992 led to first round playoff losses.  Saints fans though, remained loyal.  For the next few years, the Saints were mediocre, did not make the playoffs and when the team began 1996 at 2-6, the loyal fans still showed up, but did so wearing bags on their heads that said “Aints”.  That was it for Mora. 

Ditka Williams Marriage Ended Sour

Mike Ditka showed up and Saints’ fans once again were optimistic.  The team went 6-10 in Iron Mike’s first two years, but after Ditka traded all of the team’s draft picks in 1999 for RB Ricky Williams and the team tumbled to just 3 wins, the Aints bags were back out and Ditka was sent packing.  The 2000′s showed improvement but still, they were back to being almost good enough.  It was the make the playoffs and out routine or just missing the playoffs routine.  Hurricane Katrina hit in 2005 and the Saints were forced to play their home games in San Antonio, TX.  Rumors were that  owner Tom Benson, who was from San Antonio, would move the team.   The population of New Orleans fell by the thousands and there was question as to the city could still support the team.  But, those naysayers underestimated the heart of a Saints fan. 

Drew Brees Has Saints on the Super Bowl Doorstep

I can tell you…if you live anywhere in the state of Louisiana, there is no other game on TV besides the Saints, regardless of their record.  Well, in 2006, Drew Brees led the Saints all the way to the NFC Championship game where they lost, again.  After a couple of good but disappointing years, the Saints now find themselves with home field advantage in the NFC Championship Game again.  They play the Minnesota Vikings who have a soap-opera storyline themselves with 4 Superbowl losses in the 1970′s.  And this year they have the journeyman future Hall of Famer Bret Favre.  But at least the Vikings have made it to the Super Bowl.  The Saints are one of only three teams to not be in the big game or an NFL Championship game.  The other two are the Jacksonville Jaguars who did not enter the league until 1995 and the Houston Texans who only have been around since 2002. 

So, let us all hoist a Dixie Beer to the Saints and their loyal but long suffering fans and see what fate befalls the team after 43 years of futility.

NWS Louisville graphic

Weather Bottom Line:  We did not get any sunshine today but it was still rather mild with highs in the mid 50′s…sorry you had to go to Bowling Green to find 60.  I will give you one certainty. It will be colder next week.  Beyond that, it gets kinda muddled.  Saturday night will be a good chance for rain and possible t’storms, though nothing too exciting.  Same is true on Sunday.  A cold front comes through on Monday and then a secondary trof may bring some snow late Monday with some flurries or light snow.  I think the snow total comes to about an inch on the most aggressive model and that is over about 36 hours.  The ground probably won’t be cold enough for much accumulation  initially so it really wont be that big of a deal though driving may be tough Tuesday morning.   After that, we have another system by Thursday or Friday.  Some data suggests a guy coming from the Gulf and other ideas are it comes across the southern tier of states.  We may get above freezing from time to time during the week but not much and by late Thursday or early Friday, the issue of the track of the next system will determine how much snow we get. I can draw a scenario of 6 inches and another of rain with a little snow and then another with some ice mixed in, which I don’t like.  So, we’ll have to wait and see.