Hurricane Camille A Powerful But Forgotten Lesson
August 17, 2010

Ocean Going Ships Were No Match for Hurricane Camille Aug. 17, 1969

Before Katrina, There Was Hurricane Camille

On This Date in History:  Hurricane is the name given for tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic.  Tropical Cyclones  form in various parts of the globe but are most frequent in the Western Pacific, where they gain the moniker of Typhoon.  While the annual frequency in the North Atlantic is well below the number expected in the Western Pacific, the very fact of their destructive potential is sufficient for there to be a close study of the storms as they relate to the United States.  By the early 20th century, Americans are used to seeing satellite loops and expert analysis with forecast tracks on television.  While the exact landfall and intensity forecast is not always perfect, everyone in a given area is well informed about the prospects for their area regarding any tropical cyclone activity.  But, it wasn’t all that long ago that none of that was available. 

The Forecast Track For Hurricane Camille Missed the Mark-We've Come a Long Way Since 1969

blahHurricane satellite tracking technology was first developed in 1960, so it has not been available for all that long.  Prior to satellites, the only way that meteorologists could know that a hurricane was approaching was from ship reports.  But, ships tend to try to avoid big storms so the information available was relatively limited.  That meant that the forecast success rate was limited.  The Galveston Hurricane of 1900 was officially forecast by the US Weather Bureau to go up the east coast of the United States.  Meteorologist Isaac Cline in Galveston was convinced the storm was approaching Southeast Texas while his bosses in Washington kept saying otherwise.  So, the advent of satellite technology was a huge step forward in tracking storms.  The first hurricane to be tracked continuously by satellite was a rather ominous one:  Hurricane Camille.  In just 3 days it would grow from a tropical storm to become the most powerful force on the face of the earth and the storm of the century.

Hurricane Katrina Made Landfall in Almost The Identical Location As Hurricane Camille 36 Years Earlier

Camille came off the African coast as a tropical wave and progressed across the Atlantic.  On August 9, 1969 it was reported as a disturbance nearly 500 miles east of the Leeward Islands.  Five days later, it was determined that it had a circulation  near the Cayman Islands with a central pressure of 29.50″ or 999 mb and it gained the name of Tropical Storm Camille.  A day later, it was southest of Cape San Antonio, Cuba and it’s pressure had dropped to 991mb or 29.26″ of mercury.  The maximum winds were estimated to be 115 mph and Camille was designated as a hurricane.  Now, the forecast had called for the storm to make a landfall in the Florida panhandle.  But, hurricane forecastinig was in its infancy and, again, this was the first storm to be tracked by satellite.  So, the level of experience using such techniques was limited.  The forecast track versus the actual track had a much larger degree of error than we have today.   Even today,  the intensity forecast is extremely difficult so, back in 1969, the experts had their hands full in that regard.  By the 16th of August, Hurricane Camille had moved North-Northwest into the Gulf of Mexico and its central pressure dropped to 905 mb or 26.72″ of mercury.  At that time, it was the lowest central pressure ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico and one of the lowest ever recorded for a tropical cyclone anywhere in the world. 

Fishing Boats Became Common Yard Decorations

On August 17, 1969 Hurricane Camille was about 250 miles South of Mobile Alabama with maximum surface wind speeds estimated to be in excess of 200 mph.  Hurricane Camille was significantly more powerful than Hurricane Katrina.   At 11:30 pm on this date in 1969, Hurricane Camille made landfall near Bay  St. Louis, MS.  Hurricane Katrina had a remarkably similar path as Camille.  Remember, Hurricane Katrina did not hit New Orleans; Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi in nearly the same location as Hurricane Camille 36 years before. 

Destruction Level Map As a Result of Camille

When Camille made landfall, the guage at the west end of the Bay St. Louis bridge registered 909 mb or 26.85 inches of mercury.  That represented the second lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in the United States; a 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys checked in with 892 mb or 26.35″.   Hurricane Andrew registered 922 mb at landfall near Miami in 1992 and I believe that Katrina checked in at 920 mb when it was offshore but had a considerably higher central pressure at landfall.   Extreme winds associated with such low pressure make measuring velocity difficult as anemometers tend to blow away or power supplies to measuring devices often fail.  But, the SS Cristobal anchored in Pilottown, LA estimated winds of 160 mph.  Overall, maximum sustained winds estimated for Hurricane Camille were estimated to be 180 to 190 mph with gusts of 210 to 220 mph.  Keep in mind that a tornado designated as EF-4 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale has winds of 166-200 mph.  The highest rating for a tornado on the EF scale is EF-5 with winds of over 200 mph.  Hurricane Camille was much larger than any tornado yet its top winds approached those of the most destructive tornado. 

Top computer generated image shows new eyewall forming around contracting old eyewall; bottom shows new eyewall

While Katriana and Camille both were category 5 hurricanes on the Saffir Simpson Scale at one time, Hurricane Katrina made landfall as a category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph.   Camille slammed the coast at full fury.  It is very rare for a hurricane to make landfall in the United States as a category 5 hurricane.  Only Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992(FL landfall) and the unnamed Florida Keys Hurricane in 1935 hold such a distinction on the list of most intense hurricane to strike the United States.  While it is uncertain why several storms have weakened prior to landfall, I believe part of the reason is happenstance.  It is very difficult for a hurricane to maintain maximum strength for long.  Absolute perfect conditions must exist for a hurricane to reach such a level and as time goes by, those conditions change.  Also, there is a natural life-cycle to a tropical cyclone in which, when it reaches its top strength, there is something called an eyewall replacement cycle.  The initial eyewall collapses toward the center and a new eyewall forms.  During this process, the central pressure will tend to rise and the winds decrease.  Hurricane Katrina was in the midst of an eyewall replacement cycle when it made landfall which is why it did not hit Mississippi at maximum intensity.   However, it has been my  observation that when a hurricane goes through the cycle, the energy gets expanded from the center and so, while the winds at the core may be decreased, winds at the extremities seem to be stronger than normally anticipated.  In the case of Katrina, the winds near Mobile at Dauphin Island, AL were clocked at 105 mph; that is not much of a lapse from the maximum winds. 

Storm Surge Map Hurricane Camille 1969

Storm surge take time to react to changes in wind speed.  So, while the pressure rose and winds fell off with Katrina, the forward momentum of the storm in conjunction with the storms previous winds of 175 mph resulted in a storm surge consistent with a category 5 hurricane and not a category 3.  I’ve never done a study on the subject before, but I hypothesize that the part of the United States perhaps most vulnerable to a high storm surge is the Mississippi Gulf Coast.  As we have seen with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the water gets very deep very quickly off the coast.  The Deepwater Horizon was located only about 65 miles from the mouth of the Mississippi River but it was in some 5000 feet of water.  The area is known as the Mississippi Canyon and depths just off the mouth of the Mississippi River approach 10,000 feet in some spots.  Conversely, the Mississippi Bay is extremely shallow.  So, when the volume of water shoved up from the Gulf comes ashore in Mississippi, it is trapped by the bay and has nowhere to go but up.  With Hurricane Camille, a maximum storm surge of 24.6 feet was recorded near Pass Christian, MS. 

Most of Metairie Was Not As Fortunate As My Aunt

I have family in New Orleans. I was born there.  I know the city.  On the Friday prior to Katrina’s landfall, I called my aunt in Metairie and told her that the storm would hit Mississippi; I told her if I was wrong, then it would be farther east.  The laws of physics and atmospheric conditions told me that it would not hit New Orleans.  However, I warned her that I could not be certain if they would not get affected by the western eyewall or how the levees would hold.  I suggested that she go visit my parents in Houston.  She was reluctant, saying that her house was 8 feet above see level on the Metairie Ridge and that her house never flooded.  I reminded her that, be that as it may, she would be out of power for weeks and nothing would be more miserable than being in New Orleans with no air conditioner.  She finally relented on Sunday and it took her 18 hours.  As it turns out, she was right.  Her home had little or no damage.  Just a mile or so down the road, the homes not on the ridge were irrepairably flooded. 

Click on Map for Times-Picayune Slide Show of Katrina New Orleans Flooding

You see, while New Orleans was not hit by a hurricane and did not receive the full storm surge and Katrina could not match the intensity of Hurricane Camille, it was a much larger storm.  The push of the water to the west,  was enhanced initially by the large wind field and the east wind ahead of Katrina.  As the storm went by the progression of the surge that led to the flooding of New Orleans continued with additional surge that went up Lake Borgne, through the Intercoastal Waterway and toward the Industrial Canal.  I speculate that the surge of Katrina was greater than Camille due to its size.  The surge along the Mississippi Coast was between 20 and 30 feet.  I know for sure, that I told Snow  White on Sunday night prior to Katrina’s landfall that “alot of people are going to die tonight.”  I know that I told my friend and co-anchor, Steve Burgin, the same thing.  Snow White says that I said it on the air.  I’m not so sure that I did.

Before and After View of the Richelieu Apartments Where A Hurricane Party Was Supposedly Held; As the Story goes-one person survived by floating out of a 2nd story window before the building collapsed

But, the reason that I knew that was because it had been so long since Hurricane Camille, that most people did not remember Camille.  I was a kid in 1969 and we were supposed to go to a family reunion in Biloxi but Biloxi was blown and washed away. We drove to Mobile Bay and the Grand Hotel at Point Clear, AL a month after the storm.  I saw the fishing boats on the other side of the highway after Camille.  I saw the empty space were homes and businesses used to be.  Interstate 10 was not complete yet and we had to divert way north to Poplarville, MS and I remember that far inland all of the trees laid over like matchsticks and the utter devastation to Poplarville that was 40 miles inland.  I rememberd how large ocean going freighters were stuck on the beach and saw a giant beached barge.  I remembered the story of the infamous hurricane party supposedly held at the Richelieu Apartments

Flooding In Richmond, VA From Hurricane Camille

Most of the people who lived there in 2005 were not aware of Hurricane Camille.  Certainly, the developers of all of those casinos that the legislature determined could not be on land did not learn any lessons from Hurricane Camille in 1969.  Camille killed some 267 people, though many were killed in Virginia and West Virginia from flooding.  In fact, rainfall from Camille  in parts of the Virginia’s  approached 25 inches.   Due in large part to the flooding in New Orleans, somewhere between 1000 and 2000 died from Katrina, yet I”m afraid that to some degree, the lessons from Katrina could be forgotten just as they were with Camille.  The greatest that I can think of is that no one seems to want to admit that Hurricane Katrina did not hit New Orleans.  Some folks along the Mississippi Gulf Coast in 2005 had no clue of what was about to hit them.   I’m afraid that, even though Katrina utterly devastated New Orleans, it will be lost on public officials and residents that it could be far worse.  It is quite unsettling to think of what a Hurricane Camille striking Southeast Louisiana from the Southwest with 200 mph winds would do to the Crescent City.

Weather Bottom Line:  I saw over the weekend a forecast that called for temperatures in the 90′s this week which tells me that person’s abilities are limited.  Upper 80′s is the story as a frontal boundary came through followed by  a secondary push of drier air.  That front to the south didn’t go to far and tomorrow we have a wave running up along that boundary which may overrun our area and give us a chance for rain.  I’m still not so sure that the remnant of Tropical Depression 5 is not going to help bring us some moisture too this week.  Anyway, the humidity should slowly return as the week progresses and we probably will eventually get back to the low 90′s by the end of the week as a warm front moves north on Friday or Saturday in advance of an oncoming cold front.  It’s not that great of a front except that it will reinforce the fairly comfortable conditions we have with bearable humidity and highs around 90.  Sunday looks to be the better of the weekend as rain chances should be off the board.

Tyler, Getty and Petty
February 28, 2010

Steve Burgin Thinks He Should be King and get all the money

President Tyler Almost Bought the Farm

On This Date In History: On this date in 1844, President John Tyler almost bought the farm. He was cruising on the USS Princeton the Navy’s newest and best warship that featured a 27 inch cannon. Trouble was, the cannon hadn’t been tested. Nevermind, the bigshots in Tyler’s cabinet wanted that sucker fired! So they fired it twice and it worked. The designer of the gun begged them not to tempt fate a third time to no avail. They fired it a third time and it exploded, killing a bunch of people. Now, Tyler had a wife when he took over for William Henry Harrison, whom had died after just several weeks in office. Tyler had 8 kids with the wife. No wonder she died. So, the then single President had taken a fancy to a 20 year old named Julia whom Tyler had asked to marry but she hadn’t answered. When the gun blew up, it killed her father. I don’t know if she wanted a new father or if it was a sign or what, but she then accepted Tyler’s proposal and she promptly delivered for Tyler, another 7 kids. Our most pro-creationist President went on to retire to his home in Virginia which had previously been owned by his former boss, President William Henry Harrison! Today, the home is still owned and lived in by the Tyler family. As of this writing one of Tyler’s grandsons is still alive. Snow White and I visited the home, Sherwood Forest,  several years ago and the only other people there were a nice, attractive couple. The young lady turned to me and said, “aren’t you the weatherman in Louisville?” Small world.

King Richard

On this Date in 1960, Richard Petty won his first Grand National race. It was 50 years ago today and it was the first of 200 NASCAR victories. Eight months earlier, Richard Petty had been declared the winner of the race but he lost after the guy who came in second protested the finish successfully. So his first victory was snatched from him by….Lee Petty…his father! Talk about tough love…While his team hasn’t done well without him at the wheel, he is still deeply involved in NASCAR and his record of victories is one of those standards in sport that is held in a lofty status, like DiMaggio’s 56 game hitting streak or Gretzky’s 894 career goals.  It’s very unlikely anyone will ever amass 200 career victories, but they certainly will try.

J.Paul Getty

On this date in 1982, the J. Paul Getty Museum was endowed. Getty had made a fortune in the oil business and he had developed a love of art so he left a third of his fortune to the museum when he died in 1976. At that time, J. Paul Getty was estimated to be worth about $700 million and was one of the richest men in the world. By the time the courts got done with all of the legal wrangling involved in big estate cases, the economy was booming and the endowment grew to $1.2 billion. By 2000, the endowment had grown to $5 billion. Three of every 4 years, the law says that the trust must spend 4.25% in order to maintain tax-exempt status. The first year that was $54 million. Today it’s more like $200 million! The trust has a hard time finding places to spend it. They don’t want to look like they are greedily hoarding all of the world’s art but they have to spend it somewhere. Such problems. Steve Burgin thinks they should give it to him since so many people consider him a national treasure.

Weather Bottom Line:  I told you that I was skeptical.  The low clouds did not get worked on enough from the sun to create some breaks so we didn’t get to 40.  The extreme western parts of the area did get some sun and moved to the low 40′s. I’m not too enthused about the clouds breaking in the next 5 days so 40 may be a dream.  Could be sorta kinda on Monday we may get some cloud breaks to get toward 40 but after that, I don’t think we get to that magic number until Friday or Saturday.  At that point, it appears that there will be a pretty decent pattern change for awhile and we get some milder days.  Remember, the average high this time of year is 51 so getting to average will be quite an accomplishment.   Light, mainly insignificant snow showers are possible late Tuesday into Wednesday.  Shouldn’t be a big deal.

Pearl Harbor Attack Foretold in 1925, Carryed Out in War Games in 1932; Burginsaurus Comes to Life
December 7, 2009

CLICK IMAGE FOR VERY REVEALING ARCHIVED FILM FOOTAGE

pearl_harbor

Aftermath of Pearl Harbor Attack

On This Date In History:  On December 7, 1941 the Japanese Empire attacked the United States of America in a sneak attack on the naval and army installations in Hawaii. Some 2500 Americans lost their lives. I will spare the details of the “date that will live in infamy” but I will say that I think there are many who have forgotten or choose to ignore history. As we saw in September 2001, similar incidents are still possible. Admiral Yamamoto, the architect of the event, had lived in the United States and knew of the nation’s industrial potential even though it had been mired in depression for the previous decade. He feared he had “awakened a sleeping giant and given him great resolve.” He was right.  Ultimately, the attack resulted in the destruction of Japan. I do wonder though what it takes for this nation to have great resolve today. In 1945, the US and its allies eliminated the threat of further attacks by those who attacked us to ensure that they could not do it again.

Sinking of USS West Virginia and USS Tennessee

In both 1941 and 2001,  part of the blame was put on intelligence failures.  Leading up to December 7, 1941 there were plenty of clues.  One of which was on the bookshelves at the local library.  Hector C. Bywater wrote The Great Pacific War in 1925.  He was a British naval intelligence officer who spelled out exactly how the Japanese would go to war with the United States.  Bywater said that Japan’s military ambition would be to conquer China and Korea in order to plunder those nation’s raw materials.  He said in order to achieve the goal,  Japan would first have to destroy or cripple the American forces in the Pacific.  He said that it would go after strategic targets and thought that the US Naval base in Manila Bay would be the first target.  That part wasn’t exactly right but the rest was on the money.

Yamamoto: Brilliant or Just a Good Reader?

Now, as I mentioned, Isoroku Yamamoto had lived in the United States and, in fact, was living in Washington DC in 1925 when Bywater’s book was published.  Yamamoto was working as a naval attache who was fluent in English and could not have missed the fact that the book was out because it was even reviewed by the New York Times.  Beside that, The Great Pacific War and also a study Bywater had done in 1921 titled Sea Power and the Pacific were both available in Japan and both were circulated among Japanese military officers.   In later years, Japanese military historian Mitsuo Fuchida said that both works were part of the curriculum at the Japanese Naval War College in 1936.  Students at the war college were asked on an exam, “How would you attack Pearl Harbor?” 

Everyone But Those In Charge Knew Pearl Harbor Was Vulnerable From the Air

Americans had the answer.  A widely publicized attack was launched during  war games by US Admiral Harry Yarnell with an attack from aircraft carriers in 1932 in an exhibition designed to prove the vulnerability of Pearl Harbor to attack.  No one can say for sure if this demonstration by Admiral Yarnell or the published work by Bywater influenced Yamamoto at all.  He was a pretty smart guy and apparently everyone except those who were supposed to know knew the weaknesses of Pearl Harbor.  Yamamoto never said because he was killed on April 18, 1943 when the plane he was in was targeted and shot down.  That bit of intelligence was acted on by the United States.  But had the folks in charge read the New York Times or visited their local library or recalled the demonstration put on by one of their own admirals, then perhaps the beginning of World War II might have been different and then who knows what might have happened had the initial attack on Pearl Harbor on this date in 1941 been unsuccessful. Just to add to the intrigue, Bywater died  in London under mysterious circumstances in 1940, the year before Pearl Harbor was attacked.

Steve Burgin...Father Time

On this date….a long long long time ago….when the dinosaurs ruled the earth, Mr. Steve Burgin was born. He dinosaur-fossilhas served Louisville honorably and admirably for many years and is known in local palentology circles as the Burginsaurus. While he may look like a carnivorous beast, in real life he’s a big teddy bear.

I’m going to tell a secret: He has helped many many young journalists fulfill their dreams of developing a successful career.

I’ll tell you another secret: I am proud and honored to be able to call Steve Burgin my friend. Over the years, he has been a great sounding board and has helped me from time to time. Like many people who have had the good fortune to work with him, I am a better person for having him as being part of the sum total of my life. Besides all that…he’s given me some good ties.

Steve Burgin is also a top shelf journalist and Louisville is lucky to have him. He is the first person from this area inducted into the Silver Circle of The Ohio Valley Chapter of the National Television Academy. That small fraternity is considered the “best of the best.” He’s also received the Edward R. Murrow Award and the Scripps Howard National Award for Investigative Reporting as well as several regional Emmy Awards and other honors. He even walked my mother down the aisle at my wedding! He may be a fossil but he’s our fossil and we should all be thankful to have this journalistic treasure in our midst. See, I have to tell people because the Burginsaurus is really quite shy. He’s really a quite friendly creature, just keep your hands and feet clear at feeding time.

Feel free to email Steve (sburgin@hearst.com) and tell him happy birthday. It would be a fine way to acknowledge his efforts to serve the community in so many ways…..besides that..the fire department has outlawed anymore birthday cakes for him due to the potential fire hazard..so warm greetings would be appreciated I’m sure.

Happy Birthday Steve….and here’s to many more ahead!

NWS Louisville summary of snowfall for Dec 7 2009

Weather Bottom Line:  Well, half of the area got their first snow overnight.  I had said it wouldn’t be much and the map above shows that the vast majority of the area got either nothing or  just a dusting.  But, take a look at the areas to the northwest of Louisville in Southern Indiana.  A few spots pushed up toward an inch of snow.  Now,the next system that I was more bullish on is not paying attention to my thinking as most of the data suggests that it will lift up from the southern plains northward to our west.  So, we will stay on the warm side.  That means rain.  Now,the GFS does want to give us some wrap around snow on Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.   It’s been my experience that its pretty tough for us to get much snow when the parent low is all the way up in the Great Lakes. But, it’s out there.  The biggest thing is that, after warming up to close to seasonal levels for Tuesday and Wednesday, Wednesday evening we drop down again with the frontal passage and we stay well below seasonal norms for the latter half of the week into next weekend.

Steve Burgin: Fossil, Friend, Birthday Boy
December 7, 2008

We had a little snow Saturday and it was interesting because the ground was above freezing but the air temperature was not.  So the snow and a gropple-like sleet  melted on contact.  Then the roads got to freezing and suddenly you had the dreaded “black ice.”   There were, I think, over 100 accidents.  While it will be cold again on Sunday, driving should be just fine.
 
On This Date In History: The Japanese Empire attacked the United States of America in a sneak attack on the pearl_harbornaval and army installations in Hawaii. Some 2500 Americans lost their lives. I will spare the details of the “date that will live in infamy” but I will say that I think there are many who have forgotten to choose to ignore history. As we saw in September 2001, similar incidents are still possible. Admiral Yamamoto, the architect of the event had lived in the United States and knew of the nation’s industrial potential, even though it had been mired in depression for the previous decade. He feared he had awakened a sleeping giant and “given him great resolve.” He was right. The attack ended with the destruction of Japan. I do wonder though what it takes for this nation to have great resolve today. In 1945, the US and its allies eliminated the threat of further attacks by those who attacked us to ensure that they could not do it again.
 
On this date….a long long long time ago….when the dinosaurs ruled the earth, Mr. Steve Burgin was born. He dinosaur-fossilhas served Louisville honorably and admirably for many years and is known in local palentology circles as the Burginsaurus.  While he may look like a carnivorous beast, in real life he’s a big teddy bear. I’m going to tell a secret: He has helped many many young journalists fulfill their dreams of developing a successful career.

 

I’ll tell you another secret:  I am proud and honored to be able to call Steve Burgin my friend.  Over the years, he has been a great sounding board and has helped me from time to time.  Like many people who have had the good fortune to work with him, I am a better person for having him as being part of the sum total of my life.  Besides all that…he’s given me some good ties.

 

Steve Burgin is also a top shelf journalist and Louisville is lucky to have him. He is the first person from this area inducted into the Silver Circle of The Ohio Valley Chapter of the National Television Academy. That small fraternity is considered the “best of the best.” He’s also received the Edward R. Murrow Award and the Scripps Howard National Award for Investigative Reporting as well as several regional Emmy Awards and other honors. He even walked my mother down the aisle at my wedding! He may be a fossil but he’s our fossil and we should all be thankful to have this journalistic treasure in our midst.  See, I have to tell people because the Burginsaurus is really quite shy. He’s really a quite friendly creature, just keep your hands and feet clear at feeding time.

 

Feel free to email Steve (sburgin@hearst.com) and tell him happy birthday. It would be a fine way to acknowledge his efforts to serve the community in so many ways…..besides that..the fire department has outlawed anymore birthday cakes for him due to the potential fire hazard..so warm greetings would be appreciated I’m sure.

 

Happy Birthday Steve….and here’s to many more ahead!

Flip Flop Weather and 3 Kings
February 28, 2008

What in the world can John Tyler, J. Paul Getty and Richard Petty have in common? They are part of this date in History!!! But the weather may prove even more interesting than the subject of today’s tale.

First off, Thursday’s sunshine will turn to rain for at least part of Friday. Saturday we’re dry but a little cool…somewhere in the neighborhood of the mid 40′s. That’s not bad considering what we’ve had. Hold on to your pacemakers though because Sunday looks great. Strong southerly winds blow in temperatures in the upper 50′s or maybe even low 60′s. Take advantage of the weekend while you can. We haven’t had back to back days like that in a while. This is where we may flip or flop. A cold front comes through bringing rain and chilling us a bit. Now, there is general agreement that cyclogenesis will occur on the bottom of the front near the gulf coast. What is that? It’s not unusual. The wind patter works with the differing temperatures on land and at sea to form an area of low pressure. Cyclo..as in cyclone or low pressure…and genesis..the beginning. So, the low will probably form. Question is where does it go? Some data suggests it goes across the SE to the East coast. That is typical. But other data suggests it runs generally up the Mississippi River Valley into our neck of the woods. Now, the latter scenario is what has been happening all winter. Should that happen, we get wet. If it’s cold enough we may even get a whole mess of snow. BUT…a problem with the snow scenario, provided everything moves as suggested, is if we have enough cold air.

Bottom line is if you hear before the weekend about a snowstorm next week, don’t get all worked up. Is it possible? Yes. BUT, there are many hurdles to overcome and many factors have to come into line exactly right and that is far from clear or imminent. I can tell you about “my feelings” on the subject but the truth is that atmospheric physics doesn’t take my feelings into account. My only feeling worth sharing is to enjoy the great weekend and as you do, we will see how it shakes out. The scenario won’t really show itself until Sunday or Monday. And keep this in mind…the model that first advertised this big event had it and then it completely made it disappear into fat air. Then magically, it reappeared. So…it’s possible but not necessarily probable…just enjoy the weekend.

 

On This Date In History: On this date in 1844, President John Tyler almost bought the farm. He was cruising on the USS Princeton the Navy’s newest and best warship that featured a 27 inch cannon. Trouble was, the cannon hadn’t been tested. Nevermind, the bigshots in Tyler’s cabinet wanted that sucker fired! So they fired it twice and it worked. The designer of the gun begged them not to tempt fate a third time to no avail. They fired it a third time and it exploded, killing a bunch of people. Now, Tyler had a wife when he took over for William Henry Harrison, whom had died after just several weeks in office. Tyler had 8 kids with the wife. No wonder she died. So, the then single President had taken a fancy to a 20 year old named Julia whom Tyler had asked to marry but she hadn’t answered. When the gun blew up, it killed her father. I don’t know if she wanted a new father or if it was a sign or what, but she then accepted Tyler’s proposal and she promptly delivered for Tyler, another 7 kids. Our most pro-creationist President went on to retire to his home in Virginia which had previously been owned by his former boss, President William Henry Harrison! Today, the home is still owned and lived in by the Tyler family. As of this writing one of Tyler’s grandsons is still alive. Snow White and I visited the home several years ago and the only other people there were a nice, attractive couple. The young lady turned to me and said, “aren’t you the weatherman in Louisville?” Small world.


On this Date in 1960, Richard Petty won his first Grand National race. It was the first of 200 NASCAR victories. Eight months earlier, he had been declared the winner of the race but he lost after the guy who came in second protested the finish successfully. So his first victory was snatched from him by….Lee Petty…his father! Talk about tough love…

 

On this date in 1982, the J. Paul Getty Museum was endowed. Getty had made a fortune in the oil business and he had developed a love of art so he left a third of his fortune to the museum when he died in 1976. At that time, that was about $700 million. By the time the courts got done with all of the legal wrangling involved in big estate cases, the economy was booming and the endowment grew to $1.2 billion. By 2000, the endowment had grown to $5 billion. Three of every 4 years, the law says that the trust must spend 4.25% in order to maintain tax-exempt status. The first year that was $54 million. Today it’s more like $200 million! The trust has a hard time finding places to spend it. They don’t want to look like they are greedily hoarding all of the world’s art but they have to spend it somewhere. Such problems. Steve Burgin thinks they should give it to him since so many people consider him a national treasure.
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