The Forgotten Eastland Disaster and the Ghosts Left Behind For Oprah July 24, 2010

Eastland Disaster One of Nation's Worst

On This Date In History: The  Eastland was a steamboat on the Chicago River in the early 20th century that was built with known engineering flaws. But, they used it for ferrying passengers from the city to picnic sites on Lake Michigan.  It was designed to hold 650 people. On This Date In 1915, some 7000 employees of the Western Electric Company gathered on the dock along the north side of the Chicago River between LaSalle and Clark streets to board 5 steamers.  The Eastland was known as “the speed queen of the Great Lakes” and the folks from Western Electric, along with their friends and families,  were to be taken on that Saturday morning to Michigan City Indiana.   Now, in 1913, the Eastland was retrofitted to hold 2500 people, but a naval architect that very same year said that “unless structural defects are remedied to prevent listing, there may be a serious accident.” Nevertheless, the boat remained in service and it is estimated that at least 2500 boarded the vessel and perhaps more. There is suspicion that a large group of the passengers got to one side of the boat to pose for a picture. Other stories claim the passengers crowded together to watch a fist fight or look at a passing boat.  With the big weight shift, an engineer opened one of the ballast tanks but instead of stablizing the boat, it capsized right along the dock.  Over 800 bodies were eventually taken to the Second Regiment Armory, which served as the morgue. 

 The “Eastland Disaster”  has become obscured in the American conscience perhaps due to the role of the United States Congrss in the events of July 24, 1915.    The ultimate cause of the disaster was the retrofit done in 1913 which left the ship top heavy.  Ironically, the retrofit was partially done so the steamship company could be in compliance with the federal Seamen’s Act of 1915.  The Seamen’s Act (formally known as the Act to Promote the Welfare of American Seamen in the Merchant Marine of the United States) was sponsored by progressive Republican Robert La Follette and was a quick reaction to the Titanic disaster of April 1912 in which it was determined that there were not enough lifeboats on the giant luxury liner. 

Some of the Victims

So, Congress decided that they would include in a law designed to aid the plight of sailors, a provision that required all American ships to have a full complement of lifeboats and rafts to support every passenger.  The law was very short sighted though because Great Lakes ships like the Eastland, had a much shallower draft than ocean going vessels.   It is argued by Stephen Cox in The Titanic Story: Hard Choices, Dangerous Decisions that additional lifeboats on the Titanic would not have saved more lives because the crew would not have had enough time to lower them away.  In the case of the Eastland, it is certainly the case that the extra lifeboats did nothing to prevent the loss of life but instead may have been part of the cause for the loss of life.  By simply adding more lifeboats, the ship became even more top-heavy and therefore more unstable.  Without the extra lifeboats, it is possible that the Eastland would never have capsized.  And then entrepreneurs would have been prevented from issuing postcards of images from the disaster scene.

Passengers Walking Across the Doomed Ship and an Adjacent Tug

Several investigations were begun in relation to the disaster but ultimately those were taken over by Kenesaw Mountain Landis, who was known for his authoritariain rule and later for his role as commissioner of Major League Baseball.  Under the rule of Landis, grand jury testimony was never published and the findings of the grand jury have never surfaced.   Hence, the exact reason for the disaster may never be known.  Numerous lawsuits were filed to the US Circuit Court of Appeals but most were tossed by the court as it deemed the owners blameless.  It could be that the reason that the court held the owners blameless is because the catalyst of the disaster may have been the law passed by the United States Congress.  The court could have recognized that the owners were simply following the mandate set forth by the Seaman’s Act of 1915.  Perhaps Robert La Follette should have been held liable for the poorly crafted, short sighted bill.

The Eastland Disaster represents the largest loss of human life in a single event in the United States during the 20th century.  In terms of shipping disasters, the death toll was only topped by the Titanic and the Sultana.  With all of those bodies, officials in Chicago needed a large building for a makeshift morgue.  Initially, the Reid-Murdoch building adjacent to the site was utilized to house the bodies before the Second Regiment Armory building on West Washington Blvd.  was set up as the morgue.  In the late 20th century, the old armory building had been renovated and was incorporated into a production studio.  Today, that building is the home of Harpo Studios and The Oprah Winfrey Show. Some of the employees of the studio have reported encounters in the building and claim that it is haunted by the ghosts of the Eastland Disaster!   So, if you go to see Oprah you may want to consult the Ghost Busters.  No such worries for the USS Eastland.  It was raised and then later renovated and served as the USS Wilmette which was a gunboat used to patrol US waters during World War II and thereafter.  In 1946, the Wilmette was sold for scrap at the auction price of $2500.

SPC Severe Weather Outlook Saturday July 24 2010

SPC Severe Outlook Sunday July 25 2010

Weather Bottom Line:  One more day of excessive heat and humidty.   As I mentioned yesterday, it’s pretty tough to get the mercury to budge to 100 when there are dewpoints in the low 70′s.  Friday’s official high was 96 at the airport and not the forecast 99 of the weather channel.  I suspect that the highs other than the airport were probably a click or two lower for most people.  But…while high moisture content limits the maximum temperatures, it also elevates the heat index.  So, look for a high today of 96 or so but  a heat index probably close to 110.  A cold front sagging down will increse the prospects for rain and t’storms perhaps as early as Saturday night.  But, certainly by Sunday we will see an end to the latest brief heat wave but also will have an increase in the possibility of strong storms.  After that, we will be cooler but will be less stable.  Most long range forecasts have rain chances in the scattered to isolated range after Sunday but, as mentioned in the previous post, I think that at least some of the moisture from the otherwise useless remnant of Tropical Storm Bonnie makes its way around the ridge and perhaps into the Tennessee and Ohio Vallies.  We’ll see how it shakes out.

The Greatest Maritime Disaster in US History: Sultana April 27, 2010

Steamboat Sultana Looked Overloaded to Everyone but the Captain

Extremely Overcrowded Steamship Sultana April 26, 1865 near Helena, Arkansas

On this Date in History:  When we think of maritime disaster, one immediately thinks of the RMS Titanic.  After all, there have been numerous movies and documentaries that detail and discuss the incident.  When the news of the Titanic hit the papers, any other news of the day was lost to the backpages and buried.  Hence, when Harriet Quimby became the first woman to fly across the English Channel, she had the misfortune of doing so the day after the Titanic sunk.  She died not too long after and so most Americans think of Amelia Earhart as the first lady of flight.  Back in 1865, the news of the killing of John Wilkes Booth on April 26 dominated the media.  So, when the greatest disaster in maritime history took place, it too was left to the backpages and since, like Harriet Quimby, has been largely lost in the conscience of American history.  Timing, they say, is everythying.

 The steamboat Sultana was steaming north on the Mississippi River shortly after the conclusion of the American Civil War when three of its four boilers exploded. The Sultana was rated to carry a maximum 376 passengers. On the fateful journey, it was overloaded with some 2200 to 2500 former prisoners of war returning home on this date in 1865 along with the crew and some civilian passengers.  The incident occured around 2AM about 7 miles north of Memphis, TN as it moved against the strong Mississippi River current. Many of the passengers were wounded Union soldiers. The deaths of at least 1700 souls was brought about by the fact that the boilers catastrophically failed in the middle of the night, the river current was strong and turbulent and extremely hot water and fire rained on surviors.  Unlike the news of the sinking of the RMS Titanic, the Sultana disaster was relegated to the back pages of most US newspapers.

Andersonville 1864

What adds to the tragedy is that the vast majority of those on-board were Union prisoners of war who had been held in the infamous Andersonville Confederate prison and other prisons such as Cahaba (aka Cahawba).  These soldiers, many wounded and extremely frail from their time in horrid prison conditions, wanted to get home as quickly as possible.  But, it was not just the desire to get home that resulted in the overloading of the boat.  I mean, the Captain could have simply said that his boat was full and told the rest to wait for the next one.  But, the policy of the government in providing transportation was to pay 5$ for each soldier transported.  Keep in mind that most soldiers received about $15 a month while they were fighting so $5 was a pretty good chunk of change.  It was such a good deal for the steamboats that boat captains regularly paid US Army officers $1.15 for every man that officer directed to a particular steamboat.  Bottom line is that the more people a captain could stuff on his boat, the greater his profit.

Andersonville Survivor-Many on the Sultana Were Very Frail

Now, the soldiers were loaded on board in Vicksburg, MS for a trip to Cairo, IL and the Sultana was just one of many boats providing transportation.  It was the chance of a lifetime for steamboat operators and any delay would result in the potential loss of profits.  So, when one of the boilers on the Sultana sprang a leak while in port at Vicksburg,   the captain ordered a patch be put on the leak.  This was a shortcut and perhaps a fatal mistake.  Most researchers suggest that the bulge in the boiler should have been removed and replaced.  But that would have taken about 4 days so the captain went the 1-day patch route.   If he had waited 4 days, other steamboats would certainly have picked up the precious cargo and there would be no way to make up for the loss as this mass transport would happen just once.   Historians Stephen Ambrose and Douglas Brinkley say that the US Army officers knew of the maintanence issues with the Sultana but were eager to get the $1.15 per man kick-back and loaded the unknowing soldiers on board.

On April 24, 1865 at about 9 pm, the Sultana cast off from Vicksburg.  Captain J. Cass Mason, who is described by the US Naval Institute as “respected” but “reckless,  told an army officer that he’d carried that many men in the past and that the boat was sturdy.  Mason was well aware that his boat was extremely overcrowded but did not consider it overloaded.  He assured the officer that the Sultana was a good ship and the men were in very capable hands.   The officer told Captain Moss, “Take good care of them.  They are deserving of it.”    With that, the ship was on its way to Memphis where on April 26, 1865 it stopped to pick up a load of coal.  At around midnight, it cast off again to continue it’s journey.  The repaired boiler exploded about 2 AM on this date in 1865 and the fact that it was only 7 miles upstream illustrates just how slow it was moving.  Between the load it was carrying and the flow of the river against it, it was only able to muscle 3.5 miles per hour.  The strain on the patch was too much.  It exploded and that caused two others to immediately blow up.  Fire raced through the boat, the two smokestacks fell and crushed many on the deck.  Keep in mind that a steamboat boiled water to create the steam so scalding water no doubt affected numerous passengers, many of whom were unable to move due to their condition and were in great pain from their wounds.

The Sultana was but 260 feet long with a draft of just 7 feet.  The RMS Titanic was 882 feet long.  The RMS Titanic had 2223 passengers and 700 survived the sinking while 1517 perished.  The much smaller Sultana carried 2200 to 2500 and 1700 to 1800  were killed in the disaster leaving  500 to 800  to survive initially, but 200 more would die later from their wounds.  The survivors of the Titanic were fortunate in that it was a still night with calm seas, but it was extremely cold and the water was freezing.  The weather conditions of the Sultana disaster weren’t nearly as cold, but the river had a very swift and turbulent current due to spring run-off from melting snow and seasonal rains upriver.  Those who escaped the exlosion had to fight the deadly current.  The boat itself was not completely destroyed in the explosion and fire but the hulk of wreckage floated downstream before ultimately sinking at Memphis where today it rests covered in mud and covered by the Mississippi River.

SPC Severe Probability Thurs AM to Fri AM

12Z Tue GFS Very Bullish for Rain Midday Derby Day

Weather Bottom Line:  I’m not convinced that it’s going to be dry for the Kentucky Derby Forecast.  The longer range models still show disagreement in that the European model keeps big storms several hundred miles to the West on Friday while the GFS has  a cold front draped across St. Louis.   Either way, we will get a warming trend ahead of the system beginning on Wednesday.  Moisture levels will also be increasing as we head to the low to mid 80′s. 

12Z Tue NAM Hold Rain Just West for Oaks Day

I still have an eyebrow raised about the prospects of severe weather around here but I don’t see a kicker.  Further, the GFS vertical profile prog doesn’t really present menacing severe indecies.  However, the GFS does throw out a little more than a half inch of rain for Friday afternoon which may mean we have a questionable Oaks Day Forecast.  I tend to think that we will be okay for Oaks Day.  I”m not sure if the progression will be as slow as the Storms Prediction Center seems to be going with, which is the European solution.  My guess is that the timing of this will be something in between the GFS and European.  Any slow down in the GFS solution will result in a pretty good Oaks Day.  But, the GFS throws out 2 inches of rain in Louisville from 1AM Saturday morning until 7 pm Derby Day.  Even if it’s slower, we get rain and t’storms for the afternoon.  Every model right now throws out some amount of rain for Derby Day.   So, if you are picking a horse early, a good mudder will be a wise decision.  However, I think the wisest thing will be to wait to make your wager.  There is such disagreement with the data that its difficult to really pin down a firm forecast.  While all indications are that we will have low level convergent flow and an increasing jet stream intensity, which would support t’storms, the timing is debatable.  Should that scenario play out and some sort of kicker like a shortwave come through the flow, then we’re talking severe potential.  I have a fair amount of confidence that the rain and t’storm chances will be high for Derby Day.  I feel pretty good about the idea that Oaks Day will be warm, breezy and partly cloudy.  But, there is enough uncertainty that its probably not a good idea to hang your derby hat just yet.

Fate of Titanic May Have Been Sealed Before It Left Port April 15, 2010

RMS Titanic 1912

On This Date in History:  Perhaps the most famous shipwreck in world history is that of the RMS Titanic that sank on this date in 1912.  It’s fame came largely due to the fact that it was the largest and most luxurious ship of its day, considered the most advanced and safest ship of its day and was on its maiden voyage with notable members of society on its passenger list.  It was also the first major disaster in the advanced media age when wireless communication made news of the disaster nearly instantaneous across the world.  Titanic‘s radio opertors sent out the CQD distress call as well as the new code signal of SOS, though the use of SOS by the Titanic was not the  first usage of that code.  Radio reports of the disaster were received by a young radio man for the American Marconi Company named David Sarnoff who went on to become an innovator in mass communications as the head of the Radio Corporation of America (RCA).   Over 1500 souls died that night in the icy waters of the North Atlantic, but it was not the worst ship wreck in terms of loss of life. 

Extremely Overcrowded Steamship Sultana April 26, 1865 near Helena, Arkansas

The steamboat Sultana was steaming north on the Mississippi River shortly after the conclusion of the American Civil War when three of its four boilers exploded.  The Sultana was rated to carry a maximum 376 passengers.  On the fateful journey, it was overloaded with some 2300  former prisoners of war returning home on April 27, 1865 along with the crew and some civilian passengers. The incident occured around 2AM about 7 miles north of Memphis, TN as it moved against the strong Mississippi River current.  Many of the passengers were wounded Union soldiers.  The fact that the boilers catastrophically failed in the middle of the night, extremely hot water and fire rained on surviors and the turbulent river current all contributed to the deaths of some 1700 souls.   Unlike the news of the Titanic, the Sultana disaster was relegated to the back pages of most US newspapers.

Titanic's Huge Propellers

The RMS Titanic sank after striking an iceberg shortly after lookouts Frederick Fleet and Reginald Lee reported an iceberg directly ahead of the ship at 11:40 pm.  2 hours and 40 minutes later, the 52,000 ton liner slipped below the surface of the water.  So often in life, timing is a key to events.  Had the ship moved through those waters an hour later or an hour earlier, perhaps the iceberg would not have been in it’s location.  As it turns out, the fate of the ship may have been sealed before it ever left Southhampton.

SS City of New York

Titanic Slips by Oceanic and New York

Back in 1888, British shipbuilders had constructed another ocean liner with an eye toward making it one of the largest and fastest liners of the day.  The SS City of New York was a passenger liner of the Inman Line.  It had a capacity of just under 2000 passengers and from August 1892 to May 1893 it held the eastbound Atlantic speed record with an average speed of just over 20 kts.  It was large for its day checking in at 17,240 tons and it and its sister ship, SS City of Paris, were the first express ocean liners to feature twin screws.  In February 1893, the Inman Line was folded into the American Line with the ship becoming American flagged and renamed the SS New York.  The ship was used by the US government during the Spanish American war and returned to transatlantic service in January 1899.

Titanic Cleared New York By Just a Few Feet. Did the Incident Seal Titanic's Fate?

The aging ship was berthed in Southampton next to the steamship Oceanic on April 10, 1912.  There was a coal strike in Southampton and many ships were berthed in the harbor due to delays in the delivery of coal.   The massive Titanic with its enormous propellers passed by the smaller New York and the draft of the Titanic drew the New York away from its dock. The three inch steel mooring lines could not stand the strain and snapped.  Now, a huge ship like the Titanic cannot stop on a dime so it took quick thinking to prevent a collision between the New York and the Titanic.  Captain Edward J. Smith ordered that the port propeller of Titanic be put in reverse to veer the ship safely away while a nearby tugboat managed to capture the New York and steer it to safety.  Reports vary but the ships came within 2 to 4 feet of one another. 

Maybe Titanic Disaster Was Due to Lack of Spy Glass

The incident caused a delay in the departure of the RMS Titanic by about 30 minutes.  Had the ships collided, then Titanic certainly would not have left port on April 10, 1012.  Now, there is little doubt that Captain Smith put Titanic on a speed to make up for the lost time.  However, it has been suggested that White Star Line executive Bruce Ismay, who was on board the Titanic, was pushing Smith to make as much speed as possible.  So, it is reasonable to assume that perhaps, even without the delay, Smith would have been pushing the luxury liner at the same speed that he ultimately used.  If that were the case, then Titanic would have arrived at the location of its demise 30 minutes earlier and perhaps that iceberg would not have been in the path of the Titanic.  Conversely, had not the collision in Southampton been averted, then the Titanic never would have left the port on that day and it is possible it never would have been on a collision course with that iceberg. 

A recent article in the UK Daily Mail suggests that the “Near miss at Southampton could have saved the Titanic.”  However, I”m not a fan of alternative history.  History is about what happened, not what might have happened and no one can say for certain what would have happened. It is plausible that, due to the manner in which the ship was operated and the fact that it was moving through an ice field, it would have struck a different iceberg.  Who knows?  Nevertheless, had the SS New York been held at its moorings or if it had been allowed to strike the RMS Titanic, it is possible that there would have been no story to tell or movies to make.

SPC Just 5% Severe Storm Probability

Weather Bottom Line:  We’re right on schedule forecast wise.  Look for highs again the low 80′s on Thursday.  Probably pretty close to 80 on Friday as a cold front moves through which will increase rain chances with the potential for thunderstorms by Friday afternoon into Friday evening.  The SPC is not too enthused regarding severe chances as the dynamics are just not too exciting.  Thunder Over Louisville weekend still looks good but cooler with highs in the low to mid 60′s.

Oprah’s Harpo Studios Haunted From Eastland Disaster? Kitchen Debate Video July 24, 2009

Eastland Disaster One of Nation's Worst

On This Date In History: The steamboat Eastland was a steamboat on the Chicago River in the early 20th century that was built with known engineering flaws. But, they used it for ferrying passengers from the city to picnic sites on Lake Michigan. It was designed to hold 650 people. On This Date In 1915, some 7000 employees of the Western Electric Company gathered on the dock between LaSalle and Clark streets to board 5 steamers. Now, in 1913, the Eastland was retrofitted to hold 2500 people, but a naval architect that very same year said that “unless structural defects are remedied to prevent listing, there may be a serious accident.” Nevertheless, the boat remained in service and it is estimated that at least 2500 boarded the vessel and perhaps more. There is suspicion that a large group of the passengers got to one side of the boat to pose for a picture. With the big weight shift, an engineer opened one of the ballast tanks but instead of stablizing the boat, it capsized right along the dock. Some 800 died. The bodies were taken to the Second Regiment Armory.

Today, that building is the home of Harpo Studios and The Oprah Winfrey Show. Some of the employees of the studio have reported encounters in the building and claim that it is haunted by the ghosts  of the Eastland disaster! So, if you go to see Oprah you may want to consult the Ghost Busters.

On This Date in 1959: Vice President Richard Nixon hosted an event at the American National Exposition in Moscow. Here is a video of how the newsreels of the day covered it.  The previous year, the Soviets and Americans agreed to hold exhibitions in each other’s countries in an attempt to encourage cultural exchange and perhaps better understanding. After the Soviets had theirs in New York, the Americans held theirs and it featured a number of modern appliances and such.  Nixon took Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev on a tour. As Nixon was showing Khrushchev some new color TVs, the Soviet leader launched into a protest over a resolution recently passed in the US Congress that condemned Soviet “control” over “captive” peoples of Eastern Europe and called on Americans to pray for those people. After that, he dismissed the new technology and sniffed that the Soviets would have all of the same things in a few years. Nixon chastised Khrushchev for being afraid of new ideas and told him, “after all, you don’t know everything.” The exchange escalated with Nikita telling the Vice-President that the only thing he knew was fear of Communism. From that point, they headed into the kitchen of a model home and the debate got even more testy. The exchange became known as the “Kitchen Debate” and is one of the more entertaining but insignificant events of the cold war.   However, it does perhaps illustrate the tensions between the two super powers when two of their political leaders turned up the heat in the kitchen.  I”m not sure but I think that Khrushchev was just pissed off that they wouldn’t let him extend  his trip to Disneyland.    (snopes verification)

SPC Convective Outlook Sat 8am to Sun 8am

Weather Bottom Line:  Today will be warm but still below seasonal averages.  A front will be dropping down through the Ohio Valley on Saturday with rain chances increasing late in the day into the evening.  Ahead of the front, we should have a southwesterly flow which will help elevate the temperatures into the upper 80′s.  The SPC puts us on the edge of the severe threat with most of the activity from Louisville to the Great Lakes.  Should the boundary approach a little faster, then the odds of us getting strong storms in the region will be increased but at this point, the expectation is that the line of storms associated would come late enough in the evening that the storms would be on the down side of their daily cycle with an abscense of heating.  With our atmosphere relatively stable, I just dont think that there will be sufficient time to destablize the atmosphere sufficiently to create a scenario that would support strong storms overnight.  So, if we get them it would most likely be if the line came through in the early evening.  If we do not get to 90 on Saturday, which is not likely, then this front will serve to bring in slightly cooler air and increase the probability that we will not hit 90 by the end of July, which would mean that this would be the first time in recorded history that Louisville did not hit 90 during the month of July in any given year.  BTW…Invest 97L is dead, Jim.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009
  
   VALID 251200Z – 261200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
   VALLEY…
  
   …OH VALLEY/MID-MS VALLEY/OZARKS …
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING
   SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET. SFC
   HEATING…LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
   NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY AHEAD A FAST-MOVING
   COLD FRONT FROM OHIO SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY IS
   FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE EXIT REGION OF A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL
   JET WHICH SHOULD CREATE 35 TO 45 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR EVIDENT ON
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40
   KT OF FLOW AT 850 MB SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
   COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL
   WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL
   SHEAR WEAKEN WSWWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS…ENOUGH
   INSTABILITY IS FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH
   A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAINLY NEAR PEAK HEATING.
  
   …ECNTRL CO/SE WY…
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN
   ROCKIES SATURDAY. NORTH OF THE RIDGE…SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ECNTRL CO AND SE WY BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
   SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MAINLY FROM SPEED SHEAR ABOVE
   500 MB. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH
   FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAILSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
  
   …WRN MT…
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW…AN AXIS OF
   INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED FROM NW WY EXTENDING NWWD
   ACROSS WRN MT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
   REGION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EWD. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP
   LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
   STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
  
   ..BROYLES.. 07/24/2009