America’s First Woman President September 25, 2009

First Woman US President?

The Happy Couple

On This Date in History:  In the most recent presidential election cycle, Hillary Clinton was considered the front runner for the nominee of the Democratic Party until she was bested by Barack Obama who eventually won the election as President of the United States.  It was seen a race for the potential for firsts.  If Obama won the election, he would be the first African American president in the nation’s history.  If Clinton won, she would be the first female  president in the nation’s history.  Or would she?  Certainly Ms. Clinton would have been the first elected president of the United States but there are those who say we’ve already had a de facto female president.   The sequence of events that led to that conclusion began on this date in 1919.

President Woodrow Wilson was making a public speaking engagement in Pueblo, Colorado when he suddenly collapsed.  The president had suffered a serious stroke.  Now, the president’s wife was Edith.  She was a descendant of Pocahontas who had little formal education which contrasted greatly with Wilson, who had a PhD.  Edith was a political neophyte as she was not his wife when he was first elected in 1912.  In fact, she couldn’t even remember who she voted for in the 1912 election.    One thing that she had in common with the president was that each one had suffered the death of a spouse.  It was but a quirk of fate that Edith met the bereaved president and they soon married.  Apparently, Wilson needed female companionship greatly and when Edith Bolling Galt became Edith Bolling Galt Wilson, she became a very close confidante.

Working on a Crossword Puzzle of Reviewing Policy?

So, when Wilson became disabled by his stroke, she was able to quickly pick up the reigns and then some.  She barred everyone from seeing the ailing president.  Cabinet officers and trusted aides alike were kept from seeing Wilson.   Edith insisted that she had no role in executive decisions saying, “the only decision that was mine was what was important and…when to present matters to my husband.”  Well, even if her role was limted to what she admitted, then she was still a key figure because it was up to her what the president saw and when he saw it.  She was the sole arbitor of what was important and what he needed to consider.  It’s unclear whether she was behind the public reports regarding Wilson’s health, but the public was told that the president was recovering.  The truth as that he was partially paralyzed and nearly blind.  That would mean that he was probably unable to read any documents or correspondence and so Edith would be in charge of the content of just about anything that he heard.  The Washington Post in 2007 revealed the new information has come to light that confirms both Edith and the doctors conspired to cover-up the severity of Wilson’s medical condition.

Edith Handled Correspondence But Her Signature is rarely found by collectors

She became known as the “Iron Queen,”  “Presidentress” and “The Regent” with one senator referring to the situation as the “Petticoat Government.”  When there was a presidential address to Congress scheduled, the message was sent  in the form of a patchworks of reports from Cabinet members.  Those reports included penciled in corrections by Edith, as if she was grading the school work of a child.  Lawmakers were convinced that Wilson never knew nothing about the message to Congress or much of anything else that was coming from his office.  The last year’s of his presidency are largely seen a ineffective and many suggest that the government was tightlycontrolled by the First Lady.  Here is an excerpt from an Edith Wilson biography that illustrates the level of her control:

Lansing: Fired by Edith?

“When the Secretary of State Robert Lansing conducted a series of Cabinet meeting without the President, the first being in October 1919, Edith Wilson considered it an act of disloyalty and pushed for his replacement with the more acquiescent Bainbridge Colby. Wilson requested Lansing’s resignation in February 1920. As her husband began partially to recover, she also guarded access to him from advisors and other political figures. When Republican Senator Albert Fall was sent to investigate the President’s true condition, Edith Wilson helped arrange Wilson in bed to be presentable and sat through the brief meeting, taking verbatim notes.

In September 1919, Edith Wilson refused to have the U.S. accept the credentials of British representative Edward Grey who had been sent by his government to aid in the push for ratification of Wilson’s League of Nations unless Grey dismissed one of his aides who was known to have made demeaning jokes at her expense.”

Wilson died in 1924.  He is buried at the National Cathedral in Washington DC.  Actually, I believe I saw his place of final rest in the Washington National Cathedral.   Edith carefully preserved memorabilia and managed his legacy.  At the age of 89, she attended the inauguration of President John F. Kennedy.  Shortly thereafter, Edith Wilson died and, as part of her obituary, the New York Times observed that “some went so far as to characterize her as the first woman president of the United State.”  There are those today who agree that, without the title, sympathetically Edith Wilson was indeed the first woman president of the United States. 

SPC Severe Probability Sat AM to Sun AM

Weather Bottom Line:   There was a flash flood watch for our area through Saturday but since no wide spread rain materialized in the Friday’s gloom, it was cancelled.  The concern was the amount of rain we had received and the amount expected.  There is a cold front moving our way which will take us from a warm, moist airmass to one that is dry and coolish.  From tropical maritime to polar continental.  I had suggested some days ago that it was in this transition on Saturday that we may have some strong storms.  As it is, the SPC does not feel the threat warrants a designation of a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, but it does put parts of our area under the dreaded 5% risk of severe storms.  So, my assertion of the potential for strong storms remains, but the probability of any of those storms turning technically severe is minimal.  Here’s what the SPC has to say about our region:

UPPER LOW THAT HAS MEANDERED ABOUT THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION FOR THE
   LAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY BE KICKED EWD AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS BEGIN
   TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SPEED MAX ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
   BORDER.  IN FACT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST UPPER LOW WILL OPEN
   UP ACROSS ERN KS/MO EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN QUICKLY EJECT INTO ERN
   OH/WRN PA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AS THIS OCCURS A POCKET OF
   FAIRLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES…H5 ON THE ORDER OF MINUS
   16-18C…WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF MO/IL BY MID DAY…THEN INTO IND BY
   MID AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THIS
   REGION IT APPEARS FOCUSED ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
   SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR ROBUST CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
   GENERATING HAIL.  A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   WITHIN STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT…PRIMARILY BETWEEN 18-00Z
   TIME FRAME NORTH OF MID LEVEL JET CORE.

Rain Total Forecast For Saturday and Sunday

We will have a round of heavy rain with some accumulation totals of 1-2 inches but the SPC and Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) don’t look for particularly nasty weather or excessive rainfall.  But, the sliver of the rain totals of greater than 3 inches has expanded since the last forecast and remains just to our east, encompassing most of east Kentucky.  So, it’s worth keeping up on.  Once the front moves through, we turn drier on Sunday…should be a great day.  Then we get the follow-up shot of cooler air.  I still suspect that on Monday night, there will be several temperature reports in the 40′s and Tuesday afternoon some folks may not get out of the 60′s.  Fall is here.

1st Woman Pilot was pretty hot; Lone Star State Stories: Charles Whitman & 6 Flags over Texas August 1, 2009

 

The real first lady of flight

One Hot Pilot

On This Date In History:

Perhaps the greatest and most courageous aviators no one has ever heard of got her flying license on this date in 1911. Harriet Quimby was a single woman working in New York, which at the time was a pretty tough thing to do. Quimby worked for Leslie’s Illustrated Weekly. She was an independent and strong minded woman but wasn’t cast in the role of the Suffragettes. Instead she wrote articles that focused on neglect of children, corrupt politics and over hunting of certain species of animals.

Quimby also must have had a thing for machines because in 1906 while covering a race at the Vanderbilt Race Track, she went for a ride in a high speed automobile. So enthralled was she that she purchased her own car. I wonder if she was the only female car owner in 1906 New York. She covered a flying meet in 1910 and decided to take flying lessons. She said ” There is no more risk in an airplane than a high-speed automobile and a lot more fun. Why shouldn’t we have some good American pilots. She became the first American woman to get a flying license and the second in the world. On April 16, 1912 she became the first woman to fly solo across the English Channel. So why haven’t we heard of her? On that date, the press was filled with details of the tragic Titanic sinking and her feat was left to the back pages and generally lost to history.

A looker

A few months later, she turned her sights on the air speed record. Her plane was a two seat monoplane. When she flew is solo, she used sandbags in the passenger seat in order to maintain balance. For some reason, she took a man on a ride, presumably before she went for the record. The man won the opportunity in a coin flip with his son. As the plane went on its journey, for unknown reason it pitched forward and the man was tossed to his death. Harriet maintained control briefly before the plane pitched again and she was tossed to her death at age 37(NYTimes 1912 story/obit). Like the more famous, Amelia Earhart, Harriet was quite the looker. Her flying outfit was a quite handsome purple silk jumpsuit. Earhart gained fame perhaps as much for her disappearance as for her flying feats. While Quimby has been largely forgotten, I have an idea that her death highlighted the need of seatbelts in planes. When you buckle up on your next flight, think of Harriet.

Whitman Finally Was Stopped

Other things  happened on this date. In 1966, Charles Whitman took to the top of the University of Texas main building tower and shot a bunch of people. WWI began in 1914. The Sonny and Cher Show Debuted in 1971. In 1953, “Shane, Come Back!” entered the American lexicon as Shane was released. It is said that many actors had to stand in small ditches so Alan Ladd didn’t look so short. I think it was the debut of a young Jack Palance. And in 1943, Lt. John F. Kennedy had his PT-109 torpedoed. Kennedy was credited with helping to save the lives of his crew and his heroism helped launch his political career. Later Cliff Robertson portrayed Kennedy in PT-109 and made a coconut famous. My favorite guy though was Lenny.

Angus: The Man with the Plan

But the most interesting thing to me today(aside from Harriet) was that Six Flags Over Texas opened on this date in 1961. It was the first of the Six Flags parks and had the first log rides and mine train rides. It was also the first park to feature a single admission price, which was $2.75 for adults and $2.25 for kids. Previously all parks required payment for each ride. What is more remarkable though is that the guy who came up with the idea, Angus Wynne, Jr. only thought of it as a short term investment. He was an oilman and real estate developer who had other plans for the 212 acre site in Arlington, Texas. He was planning on just using the park to get the land to produce some revenue until he could develop an industrial park. He put up $3.5 million of the $10 million required to start up Six Flags Over Texas. His plans changed when in 18 months he had gotten his money back. Within 10 years, over 17 million people had visited his plan for a quick buck and became the most profitable private tourist attraction in Texas. Seems Ol’ Angus struck oil without even drilling one well.

SPC Convective Outlook 8am Sat to 8am Sun

Sunday 8AM

Weather Bottom Line:  There is another cold front approaching in what continues to be a fairly active pattern across the eastern 2/3 of the nation for this time of year.  The mean longwave trof extends across the northern half of the country from the Rockies eastward.  The base of the trof will be down in Arkansas by Saturday afternoon and as the front moves across the central plains and extends down into the southern plains, activity will begin to erupt.  The best chance for severe weather will be at the base of the trof, though some strong storms may be found all along the front as it makes its way eastward during the heat of the day into the evening. 

Tornado probability Sat

Now, the front doesn’t get here until about 8am on Sunday and will be slow to move through.  The severe indices from the early Saturday model runs are rather pedestrian and, given the time of day, t’storms will be relatively benign.  Several of the models indicate that a piece of the energy, in the form of a dying shortwave, will break off from the base of the trof and move through the Ohio Valley, riding along the front.  I suspect that what we will see will be similar to our last few events which is for rain chances to increase late Saturday night and carry into the first part of Sunday.  I haven’t checked but I can’t imagine that the precipitable water will be as excessive as last Thursday.  So, I doubt if we will get the 2-4 inch rains like we had then.  But, its a pretty fair bet for widespread rain with a few t’storms late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.  Won’t be surprised to see some renegade afternoon t’storms pop up in advance of the front this afternoon.

Severe Wind Probability Sat

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2009
  
   VALID 011200Z – 021200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MS DELTA/ARKLATEX
   REGIONS TO N-CENTRAL/NW TX…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MEAN RIDGE OVER W COAST
   STATES AND TROUGHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO OZARKS.  STG SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH — INITIALLY OVER WRN MN…SERN SD AND NEB…IS FCST TO PIVOT
   NEWD INTO EVOLVING CLOSE 500 MB LOW OVER NWRN ONT.  AS THIS
   OCCURS…RELATED SFC COLD FRONT — NOW ANALYZED FROM NRN MN TO SERN
   NEB TO ERN CO — IS EXPECTED TO REACH LOWER MI…ERN MO…S-CENTRAL
   OK AND TX PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS BY 2/00Z.  BY 2/12Z…FRONT SHOULD
   EXTEND NEAR LINE FROM TOL-SDF-TXK…THROUGH WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW
   OVER N-CENTRAL TX…THEN WEAK AND QUASISTATIONARY WSWWD ACROSS TX
   PERMIAN BASIN/SOUTH PLAINS REGIONS.
   
 

Severe Hail Probability Sat

  MEANWHILE…BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NOW CENTERED INVOF 36N130W
   SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY/ERRATICALLY THROUGH PERIOD…BEING ISOLATED FROM
   PREVAILING FLOW FIELDS FARTHER N AND W…BUT WITH PROBABLE NET EWD
   DRIFT.  SMALLER/WEAKER MID-UPPER LOW IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
   IMAGERY OVER BC COAST.  THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY INTO OPEN-WAVE
   TROUGH AND MOVE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH MEAN RIDGE POSITION…REACHING
   NRN ROCKIES BY END OF PERIOD.  SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION — WITH TWO
   VORTICITY LOBES EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY — SHOULD PIVOT
   SEWD ACROSS OK/AR DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS IN SUPPORT OF
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER CATEGORICAL RISK AREA.
  
   …MS DELTA/ARKLATEX REGIONS TO N-CENTRAL/NW TX…
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   ALONG OR MORE LIKELY AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT DURING AFTERNOON…WITH
   POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR SVR GUSTS AND HAIL.  PRECONVECTIVE/WARM-SECTOR
   AIR MASS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY 70S
   F…AND WHERE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT LIMIT DIABATIC HEATING
   APPRECIABLY…STEEP ENOUGH LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT
   MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG.  THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE JUST OUTSIDE SRN
   FRINGE OF STRONGEST MIDLEVEL WINDS…WHICH WILL LIMIT BULK SHEAR.
   LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AT 5-10 KT THROUGH MOST OF SFC-800
   MB LAYER…KEEPING HODOGRAPHS SMALL.  HOWEVER…SUFFICIENT UPPER
   LEVEL FLOW SHOULD COVER THIS AREA TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL
   POTENTIAL INVOF 50-75 KT 250 MB SPEED MAX…GIVEN EXPECTED LARGE
   AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY.  ANY SUPERCELL MODES SHOULD
   BE SHORT-LIVED AND DEPENDENT ON LOCALIZED/BOUNDARY PROCESSES. 
  
   …LOWER MI TO OZARKS…
   BAND OF STG-SVR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF FRONTAL ZONE
   AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR FOR A FEW HOURS…MOST PROBABLY
   DURING 1/21Z-2/02Z TIME FRAME WHEN MINIMIZED MLCINH IS EXPECTED.
   SWLY PREFRONTAL WINDS ARE FCST IN BOUNDARY LAYER…LIMITING BOTH
   CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  HOWEVER…DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FROM IL NEWD…WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   HEATING EACH SHOULD SHOW GENERAL INCREASE WITH SWD EXTENT.  LIMITING
   FACTORS WILL INCLUDE LACK OF BETTER SHEAR/INSTABILITY
   JUXTAPOSITION…AND MRGL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
  
   …NE GA TO CENTRAL/ERN VA…
   ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION
   DURING PRIOR DAY…RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN ABSENCE OF
   ANY PROGRESSIVE FRONTS OR ADVERSE ADVECTIVE PROCESSES.  STG DIURNAL
   HEATING AND UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   DEVELOPMENT OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND WEAK CINH BY
   AFTERNOON…OFFSETTING ONLY ABOUT 6 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
   YIELD MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG.  LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR
   DAY…AS WELL AS WEAK TROUGH E OF MOUNTAINS…MAY PROVIDE PRIMARY
   FOCI…ALTHOUGH SOME TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER BLUE RIDGE CORRIDOR
   AS WELL.  THIS AREA WILL BE BENEATH SERN RIM OF FAVORABLE MID-UPPER
   FLOW…BUT ALSO WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS.  MULTICELL MODES SHOULD
   PREDOMINATE…WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL EXPECTED.
   MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SVR POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS
   CORRIDOR…BUT IS TOO DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE PROCESSES TO SPECIFY A
   15-PERCENT PROBABILITY AREA ATTM.
  
   …INTERIOR PAC NW…
   SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN
   ORE AND FAR NRN CA DURING AFTERNOON…UNDER NERN FRINGE OF ENHANCED
   BELT OF SELY MID-UPPER WINDS CAUSED BY OFFSHORE CYCLONE.  FAVORABLE
   LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED…WITH SFC DEW POINTS 50S F IN
   LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MODIFIED ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WELL-MIXED
   SUBCLOUD LAYERS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVING OVER LOWER
   ELEVATIONS…BENEATH MLCAPE LOCALLY TOPPING 1000 J/KG.  WEAK
   LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT SHEAR…BUT A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY
   PRODUCE HAIL OR DAMAGING GUSTS.
  
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/01/2009

Sotomayor Rulings No Big Deal. Questionable ruling came in Constitutional Convention’s Shadow July 10, 2009

Senate Judiciary Chairman Sen. Pat Leahy

The nomination process of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court hits Congress next week.   The Constitution says that presidential appointments to the bench must be done only with the advice and consent of the Senate.  I had raised the possibility of the GOP to be able to block the nomination through a procedure that would not get her nomination out of committee.  But, either I was wrong about the potential, the right person didn’t get onto the committee or the GOP decided that politically it wasn’t a winner for them to exercise that option given that the GOP has always argued that judicial appointments should be allowed a floor vote and not be kept bottled up in a committee.  My guess is that the latter of the three choices is the case.

The news stories coming out are kinda interesting.  The UPI headline says that “most want Sotomayor” and then you see the poll that it is cited has 47% of the respondents in her favor.  Yes, that is most but it is not a majority and, in my view, the headline is true but misleading.  CNN’s more accurate headline says that “nearly half support Sotomayor.”  Trouble is that you need more than 50% for confirmation.  If we truly had a representative republic with the lawmakers doing the will of the people, then one might conclude that Sotomayor was in trouble.  But, the poll says some 70% of Democrats support her nomination and the Senate has 60% of Democrat members. 

A Pitch to the Senate?

I suppose the biggest opposition for her nomination come from those who point out that she has been involved in rulings that have gone to the Supreme Court and have been overturned by the final arbitor.  There are many numbers being tossed about but this CNN report says there have been 8 cases that have gone to the court.  5 were overturned, 2 upheld and one vacated.   The most recent of which was a case in which she joined the majority of judges that ruled against plaintiffs in a discrimination charge brought by non-African American firemen who said that they were not promoted because they were white.  Conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer predicted the high court would rule against Sotomayor’s position.   The Supreme Court overturned that ruling by a 5-4 vote and now opponents of Sotomayor will call the main plaintiff. Frank Ricci, to testify.   Former MLB pitcher David Cone will also testify, presumably to say that Sotomayor saved baseball.   My bet is that she will probably be confirmed but ponder whether or not her rulings will be judged to be as liberal as many think. 

Whether or not one thinks that her rulings have been just or not, controversial rulings by judges have been a part of the Amerian landscape since the beginning of the Republic.  So, don’t think that the final nomination vote will cause  the end of the nation one way or another.  Judges are by nature put in place to make judgements, but they are still quite fallable…human, if you will.  For instance…

On This Date In History: In May 1787, an old woman in Philadelphia was grabbed and attacked by a group of people who cut her head in an ancient tradition of bleeding out any spells she may have cast. They thought she was a witch. In early July 1787, a big heat wave was going on in the city of Brotherly Love. Dogs and horses died. The fields were dry and tempers grew as hot as the weather. No word on whether anyone blamed global warming. At the same time, 55 men were gathered in Independence Hall arguing over the forming Constitution. If you look at the painting above, you will note the central figure is General Washington. Just about every painting you see will feature the Father of the Country prominently. That is because he is largely credited with holding the conventioneers together. Not by words but simply by his presence. His silent, strong leadership was what everyone looked toward to get them through the turmoil. Another person in Philadelphia did not have the General to save her.

Philadelphia: City of Brotherly Love

The old woman who was tormented in early May was a German known as Korbmacher. During the heatwave, a little boy died. Some on the streets of Philadelphia chose to blame her and attacked her again On This Date in 1787. The Pennsylvania Evening Herald story read, “We are sorry to hear that the poor woman who suffered so much some time ago, under the imputation of being a witch, has again been attacked by an ignorant and inhuman mob. On Tuesday last she was carried through several of the streets, and was hooted and pelted as she passed along. A gentleman who interfered in her favour was greatly insulted, while those who recited the innumerable instances of her art, were listened to with curiousity and attention.”

Eight days later, Korbmacher, which means basket-maker, was dead. The newspapers wrote that they hoped justice would be done to those who had perpetrated such a beating on a person, let alone an old woman. Well, a trial did get underway as several people said they would testify against some of the alleged attackers. Three things are interesting about the trial. First was it was held just prior to Halloween also known as All Hallows Eve or Witches Eve. Second, there is no record of the results of the trial. The third, and perhaps most intriguing is the commentary about the innocence of Korbmacher from the bench by the judge:

Judge: Old ladies are innocent

“what! that a poor wretch whose sorrows and infirmities have sunk her eyes into her head, and whose features are streaked with the wrinkles of extreme old age, should therefore become an object of terror, and be endowed with the powers of witchcraft — it is an idle and absurd superstition! If, however, some damsels that I have seen, animated with the bloom of youth, and equipped with all the grace of beauty, if such women were indicted for the offence, the charge might receive some countenance, for they are indeed calculated to charm and bewitch us. But age and infirmity, though they deserve our compassion, have nothing in them that can alarm or fascinate our nature.”

So according to the judge…Korbmacher was innocent simply because of her age. Yet, if she had been young in the “bloom of youth” well then she may very well be guilty of being a witch because everyone knows that young women have a way of putting men under their spell!!! How’s that for justice. All of this on the same streets that were at the very time witness to the construction of the very document that governs justice for all for this great nation. It’s too bad that General Washington didn’t go for a stroll at the hour of Korbmacher’s demise…his presence alone could have done what the Constitution could not.

SPC Severe Risk Sat 8am to Sun 8am

SPC Severe Risk probability Sat 8am to Sun 8am

Weather Bottom Line:  Friday is here and we will get to the low 90′s.  It’s summer.  Tomorrow will again be in the low 90′s with the possibility of a few afternoon t’storms.  Now, we have a cold front coming down and approaching.  Saturday night or Sunday morning, there will be a risk for thunderstorms.  The SPC has us in the slight risk for severe thunderstorms and has split the timing between Saturday and Sunday.  The models are a bit disheaveled but the general idea is that some time along the way, a short or series of shortwaves will move down along the approaching front.  Some models make the main short pretty strong, others have it weakening.  But, with the warm moist air at the surface, even at night, and with the lifting mechanism of even weak front, as well as the cold pool of air associated with any short wave (vorticity/upper low) there will be a pretty good shot at t’storms.  Of course, if one of these guys comes through, particularly if we haven’t had much activity, during daylight hours or early evening, then the risk for strong storms will be enhanced.   Anyway, Saturday looks to be the best day to get some yardwork done, though Sunday will be closer to seasonal averages temperature-wise.

SPC Severe Risk Sun 8am to Mon 8am

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2009
  
   VALID 111200Z – 121200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NY/PA WWD INTO THE MID-MS
   VLY…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   UPR HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
   ALONG ITS NRN PERIPHERY…AN UPR TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SERN
   CANADA WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE GRTLKS REGION
   TO THE NERN STATES.  ANOTHER UPR SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE
   THE PAC NW CST.  IN THE LWR LVLS…A FRONT ASSOCD WITH THE FORMER
   TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD INTO NY AND PA AND SWD INTO THE OH…MID-MS
   VLY AND PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS SATURDAY AFTN/EVE.  THE FRONT WILL
   BE THE FOCUS FOR PSBL SVR TSTMS.
  
   …NY/PA WWD INTO THE UPR OH VLY…
   BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY AHEAD OF
   THE CDFNT FROM THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION TO THE MIDWEST.  MAINTENANCE
   OF A FAIRLY STRONG SSWLY LLJ WILL ADVECT MODEST LLVL MOISTURE NWD
   INTO THE UPR OH VLY TO NY DURING THE DAY.  THIS WILL PARTIALLY
   OFFSET CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS AND AROUND 1000 J/KG SBCAPE IS NOT
   OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING PEAK HEATING.  AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT
   FALLS SPREAD SEWD…TSTMS WILL REKINDLE/DEVELOP AMIDST 35-40 KTS OF
   WLY BULK SHEAR.  A FEW STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP INTO BOWS GIVING
   DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL. 
  
   …LWR OH VLY TO NRN MO…
   COMPARATIVELY STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THIS
   REGION SATURDAY AFTN AS LWR 70S SFC DEW POINTS BECOME COMMON ALONG/S
   OF THE CDFNT.  THIS IN COMBO WITH STRONG HEATING AND PRESENCE OF
   STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPES OVER 2500 J/KG.
    AS SRN PERIPHERY OF THE GRTLKS IMPULSE /AND PSBLY A
   CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED VORT CENTER/ GRAZE THE REGION…TSTMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF THE FRONT FROM SRN IA/NRN MO AND TRANSLATE
   ESE INTO THE LWR OH VLY BY EVENING. VERY UNSTABLE
   CONDITIONS…EVIDENCE OF DRY MID-LVL AIR IN FCST SOUNDINGS AND
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY FLOW REGIME ABOVE H7 ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A BOW
   ECHO ENVIRONMENT WITH DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY.  ACTIVITY
   COULD PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO PARTS OF NWRN KY/SRN
   IND. 
  
   …CNTRL PLAINS…
   THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A MINIMUM IN SVR TSTM PROBABILITIES ALONG THE
   BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER MOST OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AS STRONGEST SWLY LLJ
   AXIS AIMS TOWARD THE MID-MS VLY AND DIURNAL LLVL FLOW TURNS UPSLOPE
   OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  HOWEVER…STRONG HEAT MAY LOCALLY BREACH THE
   CAP AND CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST ISOLD SVR STORM PROBABILITIES. 
  
   MEANWHILE…SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
   STRENGTHEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO DURING THE AFTN AS A WEAK
   PLAINS ANTICYCLONE SETTLES SWD.  APPROACH OF ANOTHER WEAK
   DISTURBANCE ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPR RIDGE WILL ENHANCE HIGH
   TERRAIN CONVECTION BY MID-AFTN AND A WDLY SCTD STORMS WILL ERUPT BY
   LATE AFTN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  ROUGHLY 40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND
   VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WITH
   VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.  ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO ADJACENT
   SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS DURING THE LATE EVENING.

Congress Does Something Right April 10, 2009

Russian Version of Treaty

On This Date In History:  On this date in 1867, Secretary of State William Seward basked while his detractors fumed.  The day before,  Congress showed a nose for looking to the future instead of votes for the day as it approved what was known as “Seward’s Folly”.  That’s what they called his negotiated purchase of the Alaskan Terrirtory from Russia for $7 million.  That was less than half of what Thomas Jefferson paid for Louisiana.   Alaska became the 49th state in the 1950′s and has been proved to be anything but a folly.  It has provided billions of barrels of oil and billions of cubic feet of natural gas.  It is a strategic location for national defense, has great commercial fishing and has a vast frontier like wilderness.

Palin Was A Bonus Baby For Seward's Folly

The only folly was the pinhead shortsightedness of the members of Congress who opposed  the purchase.  So…when you get upset at elected officials who seemed more concerned about the next election rather than the future of the nation…when its easier to just go along with public sentament than to struggle to educate the electorate to support what is in the long term best interests of the country, our children and grandchildren…don’t feel too bad…Congress has been that way for a long time and we’ve managed to survive.  Though this time, they seemed to have spent way more than $7 million….more like $7 Trillion and who knows where that will leave our children and grandchildren…or even us in a few years.  But let us not cast stones…let us celebrate that on this date in 1867, Congress actually had something to celebrate, whether they knew it or not.  And look at it this way…if it weren’t for Alaska, we wouldn’t have Sarah Palin!

Skyline Club: Unlucky For Williams and Horton

But, the man who inexplicably adorns the top of this section did not.  See, it’s Johnny Horton who was a rising rockabilly star in the 1950′s.  He was influenced by Elvis and Hank Williams.  Horton’s connection to Alaska is that he had a hit song called North to Alaska.  Who can forget it?  His connection to Hank Williams was even more interesting or even eerie.   See, Williams had been married to the former Billie Jean Jones.  Williams was killed in a car accident at the age of 29 after performing in Austin, Texas at the Skyline Club.  A few months later, Billie Jean married Johnny Horton.  For the second time, Billie Jean became a widow as Johnny was killed at the age of 31 at the hands of a drunk driver after performing in Austin, Texas at the Skyline Club. 

Fri 8am to Sat 8am

Weather Bottom Line:  Forecast still looks on track.  Perhaps some early morning showers or maybe a t’storm or two as a warm front

SPC Outlook Monday

lifts through on Friday morning.  Then the cold front comes in Friday afternoon which will provide our best chance for strong storms.  Guess here is that we’d be looking at high winds and possibly hail, though maybe a small chance for an isolated tornado.  I’m thinking the the best twister chance will be to our south or southeast.  Still worth watching.  Cooler air slips in for the weekend but not terribly cold.  Easter Sunday looks good…high perhaps in the low 60′s.  Then on Monday another system comes through and I had thought previously that the main short would generate some action.  Then the last couple of model runs did not show any evidence of that.  I had speculated that it was worth seeing what really happened and now the SPC is putting us in the suspect area as there may be enough time to reload sufficiently to support some action as the short is really very strong and probably doesn’t need as much extra stuff.  Still, probably won’t be too major but since the situation is in flux, it’s wise to keep an eye out.    Generally seasonal temperatures it would appear for much of the week ahead if not a tad cooler for a day or so.

 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0746 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009
  
   VALID 101300Z – 111200Z
  
   …THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TN VLY/GULF
   CST STATES/SRN APPALACHIANS…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
   FROM MS AND THE LWR OH VLYS TO THE S ATLANTIC CST…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LWR 48
   THIS PERIOD.  MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE…POTENT UPR LOW NOW OVER SRN MO
   …WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS SRN KY TODAY AND GRADUALLY DEVOLVE INTO AN
   OPEN WAVE.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH SE VA BY 12Z SAT AS 80 KT MID
   LVL SPEED MAX NOW ON ITS SW PERIPHERY /OVER THE ARKLATEX/ MOVES OFF
   THE S ATLANTIC CST.
  
   AT LWR LEVELS…SFC LOW NOW OVER SE MO SHOULD TRACK E ACROSS KY
   TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT AS TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGRESSES STEADILY SE
   ACROSS THE TN/LWR MS VLYS.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT…SFC AND VWP DATA
   SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A PRE-FRONTAL LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS…POSSIBLY
   RELATED TO SQLN OVER E TN/N GA…EXTENDING NE/SW FROM NRN AL INTO
   SRN MS.  FARTHER E…CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT WARM FRONT
   OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN DIFFUSE THROUGH MUCH
   OF THE PERIOD.  BUT SIGNIFICANT LOW LVL WARMING/MOISTENING SHOULD
   SPREAD NE ALONG THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT/CSTL PLN WITH TIME AS SFC LOW
   REACHES SRN VA EARLY SATURDAY.
    
   …TN VLY INTO CNTRL GULF STATES…SRN APLCNS/CAROLINAS/SRN VA…
   LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE/GPS PW DATA SHOW FAIRLY
   SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE /WITH PW AOA 1 INCH/ IN PLACE FROM THE
   WRN/CNTRL GULF CST NE INTO THE TN VLY AND SRN KY.  A TONGUE OF DRIER
   AIR REMAINS PRESENT FROM FL NWD INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS…BUT A
   SECONDARY AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE LIES OFF THE NC CST.  MOISTURE
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST STATES
   AND GA TODAY AS 40+ KT SWLY LLJ PERSISTS IN WARM SECTOR OF
   PROGRESSIVE SFC LOW.  SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S F SHOULD
   EXTEND FROM SRN LA INTO MUCH OF AL AND GA BY LATE TODAY. 
  
   COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE WITH COOL MID LVL
   TEMPERATURES AND ASCENT ON SRN FRINGE OF UPR LOW SHOULD SUPPORT
   INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN
   IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM WRN
   KY/TN SSW INTO MS.  OTHER INTENSE STORMS SHOULD FORM NEARLY
   SIMULTANEOUSLY…OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LATER…INVOF AFOREMENTIONED
   CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER ERN MS/AL/GA.
  
   ALONG THE COLD FRONT…STRONG…LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP FLOW
   EXPECTED TO SUPPORT BROKEN BANDS OF SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH
   HIGH WIND/LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES.  FARTHER ESE…
   WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW AND LONG…CLOCKWISE-TURNING
   HODOGRAPHS WITH 60-70 KT WLY MID LVL FLOW COULD FOSTER NUMEROUS
   DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS…ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
   HEATING BOOSTS SFC TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80 F.  THESE STORMS COULD
   YIELD A FEW STRONG TORNADOES…IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   HIGH WIND.  THIS THREAT APPEARS GREATEST FROM CNTRL/NRN AL INTO
   CNTRL/NRN GA…PERHAPS AS FAR E AS WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT INVOF THE
   SAVANNAH RVR VLY THIS EVE. 
  
   LARGE SCALE UVV AHEAD OF UPR VORT SHOULD STRENGTHEN E OF THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CAROLINAS/SRN VA BY LATER
   TONIGHT.  BUT…WEAKER DESTABILIZATION…ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE
   LIMITED LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN AND ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING…MAY
   MITIGATE SVR POTENTIAL.  A LIMITED SVR THREAT
   COULD…HOWEVER…LINGER THROUGH EARLY SAT…ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NC
   CST.
  
   ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 04/10/2009

alphainventions

Little Giant Makes Kansas Bleed? Severe Threat Wed. February 11, 2009

Rock and Roll Band Kansas Recognized the History of the State

 

 

Wonder how some ballplayers are sleeping these days?  Pretty active few days for the feds.  First, they show their hand for the case against Barry Bonds, but some of the best evidence may get tossed by the judge.  I’m not so sure the court of public opinion will be so forgiving.  Then, A-Rod got nabbed by Sports Illustrated and fessed up, but questions remain on whether or not his fessing up was the total truth.  I pointed out that if he had said he used PED while with the Yankees, that his new contract could be voided.  Not only that, but if he said he used them after 2003, then he’d be subject to suspension penalties.  Of course, we have Roger Clemens under investigation for lying to Congress and now Migel Tejada has been charged with lying to investigators.  He’s not nailed for using PED’s, but instead lying to the federal investigators, much like Martha Stewart got nailed.  Is it possible that Jose Canseco ends up being the only one telling the truth? Who knows.  But, I suspect the other 103 players who tested positive in 2003 are a bit nervous.

On This Date in History:  I think most people are familiar with Stephen A. Douglas.  He was the “little giant” who was Abraham Lincoln’s political opponent.  He was a candidate for president in the 1860 election.  While he is

The Little Giant Wanted A Big Railroad

associated with the pro-slavery forces of antebellum America, it seems that some suggest that he really wasn’t all that enthused about the issue.  Instead, his support for the Southerners position was more rooted in his desire to get a transcontinental railroad from Chicago to the Pacific.  Standing in the way was the Nebraska Territory.  Every bill that had been brought up to organize the territory had been defeated by the southern states out of fear that it would be a free state, as proscribed by the Missouri Compromise. 

Northern Papers Had a Field Day

Undaunted, Douglas had a solution.  He proposed the Kansas-Nebraska Act which would divide the territory into two states and let the settlers decide  whether or not they would have slavery or not.  In 1854, the Kansas-Nebraska Act was passed and the Missouri Compromise that had stood for over 3 decades was repealed.  That blew the lid off the simmering pot and some historians say that pretty much sealed the fate of Douglas’ bid to be president.  Nebraska was certain to be a free state and that left Kansas in the crosshairs of the southern coalition.   Both sides of the issue sent their minions pouring into the state.  Proslavers from Missouri poured in and founded the towns of Leavenworth and Atchison.  Free Soilers responded by sending in folks to found Lawrence and Topeka.  Guerilla warfare ensused.

Pretty Tough Being a Kansas Settler

Abolitionist minister Henry Ward Beecher’s congregation funded the shipment of rifles in boxes marked “Farming Implements.”  The guns became known as “Beechers’ Bibles.”  Raiders from Missouri torched Lawrence in 1856 and the infamous John Brown retaliated by killing 5 slavery supporters in Pottawatomie.  An abolitionist minister was spared a lynching when it was determined that killing a man of the cloth would not do the pro-slavery cause much good.  So, they settled on tar and feathering him instead.  On this date in 1856, the ineffective President Franklin Pierce  issued a proclamation that requested citizens from all of the states to stop meddling in the affairs of Kansas.  Pierce was about as popular then as he is now and his proclamation was ignored pretty much as it is ignored by history.  He didn’t exactly speak from a bully pulpit.  Kansas became known as “Bleeding Kansas” as homes and crops were burned, livestock killed and some 200 people were killed. 

Towns Became Battlefields

So, what about the vote that Douglas had called for?  Well, when it came about, a bunch of thugs from Missouri came into the territory to intimidate voters and stuff the ballot box.  Their side won in 1857 and wrote a constitution that included slavery.  When the constitution came to a vote in 1858….it failed.  In 1859, a new consitutional convention was convened and produced a new constitution that outlawed slavery.  It didn’t really matter much in the end because by the time Kansas became the 34th state, 11 southern states had already seceded from the Union.  But, it could be said that the preview of the bloody civil war to follow could be seen in Bleeding Kansas.  How people in the nation on both sides could see what happened there and still conclude that a national conflict would be short is beyond me. 

President Lincoln pretty much took a system with a relatively weak presidency and turned it into a strong presidency and the office has become more dominant ever since.  While Thomas Jefferson favored a weak central government, we have an example of total catastrophe when there is a weak presidency and Congress tries to steer the nation and set the agenda.  Keep that in mind today.

Slight Risk Severe Weather 7AM Wed to 7AM Thu

Weather Bottom Line:  I may not be on the tube at the moment but my flock still keeps me informed.  Now, I’ve been warning you for a number of days now about the potential for big old storms here and the day has arrived.  I told you that all indications are that the main threat appeared to be strong winds.  All of that is holding fast and the

SPC Severe Probability 7AM Wed to 7AM Thu

boys at the National Weather Service have issued a high wind warning for Wednesday.  I’ve heard from several people that “they” say that we’re going to have 90 mph winds tomorrow.  Snow White’s dad was digging around for flashlights on Tuesday to be prepared.  Of course, no one ever tells me where they hear this stuff, though I have an idea.  So, will we get 90 mph winds?  I suppose it is possible but I would not say its probable by any stretch and in fact not all that likely nor would it be the norm.  What we will have is a strong southwesterly flow for the first part of the day.  Winds should be running some 20-30 mph with higher gusts.   The outlook from the Severe Prediction Center indicates that a line of storms ahead of the front could come running along here at about 50 kts.  The data all indicate winds aloft at that speed.  The forward momentum alone will help get winds to up to and perhaps over 50 mph.  But, as I’ve said before, the potential energy, or CAPE will be

Feb 11 Hail Probabilities

Feb11 Tornado Probability

limited, though latest indications from the 18Z profile of both the NAM and GFS has a bit more than previously advertised.  So, what that would do would increase the chances of thunderstorms that could draw down some of those winds to the surface.  90 mph is probably a stretch but something in excess of the 58 mph severe parameter would not be out of the question, hence, the slight risk of severe thunderstorms.  The SWEAT indices of both models are still high but the threat of tornadoes would probably be limited to what I call trash can twisters that are quick hitters showing up on bow-echo segments.  Still dangerous and something to watch for, but the wind will be the primary

Feb 11 Wind Probability the Greatest

threat.  The helicities are high, again, indicating a lot of wind energy.  You probably don’t have any of this stuff outside but perhaps some tools or things from cleaning up from the ice storm should be put in a secure place.  You don’t need a rake flying down the street.  The trees don’t have any leaves so, on the one hand, I wouldn’t think that would be a problem.  However, limbs and branches may be more susceptable to being a problem given that some that may not have fallen could be weakened from the ice storm or there  may be branches that are broken that are laying precariously in the trees.  So, it may be a hard hat area under some trees.  Afterward, we chill down to more seasonal levels but not terribly cold.   The GFS is trying to throw out a half an inch of snow on Sunday morning but the low level temperatures will most likely be above freezing and the ground certainly above freezing so even if that happens, it won’t be a problem.  Storm threat Wednesday I would think would be in the early afternoon and the threat should be done pretty quickly as, if a line does form, it will be racing through the area and then we’ll be done though the winds will still be gusty as they shift to the northwest.

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009
  
   VALID 111200Z – 121200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION
   INTO THE NRN GULF STATES…
  
   …OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY…
  
   INTENSE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS…ON THE ORDER OF
   240-270M/12HR…WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION
   DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS STRONG SPEED MAX…120KT AT
   500MB…INTENSIFIES AND EJECTS ACROSS AR INTO OH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   AT THE SURFACE…DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL LIFT NEWD FROM NEAR STL AT
   12Z INTO SWRN LOWER MI BY 00Z.  A NARROW AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE…SFC DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S…WILL ADVECT NWD AHEAD
   OF SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES EAST ACROSS MO INTO
   IL/IND DURING THE MORNING HOURS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WIND SHIFT.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
   SOMEWHAT MARGINAL…STRONG/FOCUSED ASCENT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT…ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
   MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD…SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 50KT…ENHANCING THE THREAT
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  IN ALL LIKELIHOOD AN ELONGATED SQUALL LINE WILL
   EMERGE ALONG SHARP BOUNDARY FROM IL INTO WRN TN EARLY…THEN MOVE
   RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
   WRN PA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  AIRMASS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
   WILL PROVE SOMEWHAT HOSTILE FOR MAINTAINING STRONG/ORGANIZED
   UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS.  FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST…LAPSE
   RATES SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR
   ROBUST ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS GIVEN THAT SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE UPPER
   SUPPORT SHOULD SPREAD WELL NORTH OF THIS REGION.
  
   ..DARROW.. 02/10/2009

Mr. Tomato Head August 7, 2008

I'm An Idiot

 

Sunscreen.  If you’d like some, Snow White will sell you some.  When you buy it please show me how to use it, or force me to recognize that I need it.  I’m kinda hurtin’ right now. Not sure why your skin is red or why it feels hot and hurts?  Click here to find out all about sun-burn and why its not a good thing to let happen to you. When you find all about it, please clue me in because I’m and idiot.

Weather…hmm…here is the SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2041.  Nothing much happened Tuesday night and nothing much will happen on Wednesday night.  We will experience a some very rare mid-August weather over the next few days.  It will make you forget global warming.  Very nice.  It’s always funny…we go through a stretch of unusually hot weather and the global warming enthusiasts come out of the wood work.  Go through a cool stretch, and those voices are suddenly silent.  Truth is, we have cool stretches and we have warm stretches and that is how we get averages.

Edouard Pretty Tame; Snow White Begins Her Fame August 6, 2008

T’storm Watch Tuesday night seems somewhat precautionary in our area.  MCS out west may induce other stuff late Tuesday night.  I wouldn’t think the severe threat would be minimal at best.  Nonetheless, here is the Mescoscale Discussion (2038) For the region and the thoughts from the SPC

Tropical Storm Edouard:

ed track 0805

As I thought it might, Edouard wasn’t too tough.  Reports from Houston was that the media hyped up the storm so much that they scared everyone.  SophaGopha called me up and wanted to know if he should “cower in the closet like a girl” or “take my umbrella to work.”   I told him to take the umbrella but to be ready in that everyone else would probably use the storm as an excuse to not show up.  I bet a bunch of his patients cancelled.  He said you could tell that it wasn’t going to be anything when he saw all of the reporters from all of the stations reporting live from the seawall in Galveston and none of the reporter’s hair was even messed up.  He said they kept promising it would get worse.  I told him it was going in east of him and they’d have an offshore flow and perhaps not even any showers in Galveston.   Here is the climate report for the region.  North of Houston in Huntsville they had over 3 inches of rain and I think they got two more after this report was made.   Still think the biggest problem with this could be in the hill country, but the track is so far north that even Austin may miss out on really tough stuff.  I’m concerned that the tv people go so bananas over every chance they get that when its real, people won’t listen. 

Snow White and Me

On This Date In History:  While Disney Studios  provide what could be the perfect wedding photo of my bride and I, my Snow White began her tale on this date in history.  Born to a world of such complication and fear, she has since pranced about spreading joy and love and happiness to all creatures great and small who have crossed her path.  She has not only tamed Nit and Wit, she has even managed to make Dopey feel as if he has a place on this planet.  Anyone who has ever met Snow White knows that she is a truely blessed soul.  The Lord was having a good day when he shared her with us on this date in history and every day since.

Severe T’Storm Watch 788 until 1 AM Saturday (EDT) August 1, 2008

Still as I said before, don’t get too worked up over this.  I suspect that this will be a lame watch. But, during the newscast tonight they put out Severe Thunderstorm Watch 788. We are on the extreme eastern flank of the box and it does include Louisville. Basically its the northwestern quadrant of the viewing area and it goes until 1 AM. Storms were starting to fire west of Terre Haute at 6:30 and drifting east and southeast. I think we are generally not in the area most susceptable to severe weather but its not out of the question. I suspect that these storms would weaken as the approach the area late Friday night, but may have some wind with them. Regardless of what I hypothesize, we will certainly keep tabs on the storms for you. Here is the link to the discussion with Severe T’storm Watch 788. Below is the portion of the discussion that details their thoughts.

DISCUSSION…TSTMS NOW FORMING ON SRN-MOST OF TWO LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE FEATURES ACROSS CNTRL IL/SW IND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS STORMS INGEST STRONGLY HEATED MOIST AIR FARTHER S. INCREASING DEEP NWLY SHEAR AND ASCENT WITH UPR IMPULSE NOW IN ERN IA/WRN IL MAY SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS THAT YIELD HIGH WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. AVIATION…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025.

Severe Weather Outlook For Friday August 1, 2008

Don’t get too worked up over this. They have us barely in the slight risk I think mainly as a precaution. Most

tornado risk

of the action should be to our north. What the concern for us is that storms

wind risk

develop in Illinois and perhaps an MCS. That would generally move to our north and the potential would be for some stuff fanning out along the axis of vorticity….an appendage perhaps…sticking down and coming through. The general idea is that this type of appendage would tend to fade in the evening, hence, the slight risk is to our north and northwest. Here is the day one outlook discussionthat pertains to us:

…GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY… LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT

hail risk

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION. THIS PROCESS WILL DEVELOP AS AN INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGS SEWD FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES…AND LARGE UPSTREAM RIDGE EXPANDS/AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CNTRL/NCNTRL U.S. MODEST TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WI/NRN IL WHERE GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST COINCIDENT WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WEAKENING INHIBITION AND INCREASING ASCENT WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THESE AREAS EAST ACROSS LAKE MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROMOTING ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS WILL ONLY IMPROVE WITH TIME AS MID LEVEL WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 50KT THROUGH THE EVENING. INITIAL CLUSTERS TO STORMS MAY EXHIBIT SOME INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ALSO INCREASING AS STORM ACTIVITY SPREAD EWD ACROSS LOWER MI INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF IL/IND/OH THROUGH LATER AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AN AXIS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER THESE AREAS ALONG A RESIDUAL WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THESE AREAS…THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT HEATING AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO AID STORM INITIATION IN THIS VERY UNSTABLE REGIME. AS FARTHER NORTH…SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH TIME…AND EVENTUALLY…STRONGER FORCING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS ZONE AS WELL. EXPECT STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE IN THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF A BETTER ORGANIZED MCS FORMING. AMPLIFYING PATTERN SUPERIMPOSED ON THE POSSIBLE MCS SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND EVENT MAY INCREASE INTO THE LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF IND/OH…AND PERHAPS SOUTH ACROSS THE OH RIVER.

Name The First Lady of Flight August 1, 2008

Can you name this woman? She was a pioneer if aviation.

Can you name this gator? He had his last supper.

A little disturbance is set to drop down through the flow on Friday triggering strong storms to our west. Below you see the SPC forecast from Thursday for Friday. The idea is that the storms weaken as they approach our area. Scattered storms are possible late Friday. A weak boundary comes through and keeps the temperatures in the low 90′s for a couple of days, delaying the ridge a bit but we still have mid to upper 90′s by the first part of next week. Rain chances go off the board for the weekend into early next week. Here is the portion of the SPC discussion related to the Ohio Valley.

…MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY… INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL NEGATE STRATUS/FOG FORMATION FOR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALLOWING FOR INCREASED DAY TIME HEATING…COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND RIPE FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY. SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND 850MB MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH CONTINUED DYNAMIC SUPPORT AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES LATE EVENING…30-40KT OF LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION.

On This Date In History: Perhaps the greatest and most courageous aviators no one has ever heard of got her flying license on Aug 1, 1911. Harriet Quimby was a single woman working in New York, which at the time was a pretty tough thing to do. Quimby worked for Leslie’s Illustrated Weekly. She was an independent and strong minded woman but wasn’t cast in the role of the Suffragettes. Instead she wrote articles that focused on neglect of children, corrupt politics and over hunting of certain species of animals.

Quimby also must have had a thing for machines because in 1906 while covering a race at the Vanderbilt Race Track, she went for a ride in a high speed automobile. So enthralled was she that she purchased her own car. I wonder if she was the only female car owner in 1906 New York. She covered a flying meet in 1910 and decided to take flying lessons. She said ” There is no more risk in an airplane than a high-speed automobile and a lot more fun. Why shouldn’t we have some good American pilots. She became the first American woman to get a flying license and the second in the world. On April 16, 1912 she became the first woman to fly solo across the English Channel. So why haven’t we heard of her? On that date, the press was filled with details of the tragic Titanic sinking and her feat was left to the back pages and generally lost to history.

A few months later, she turned her sights on the air speed record. Her plane was a two seat monoplane. When she flew is solo, she used sandbags in the passenger seat in order to maintain balance. For some reason, she took a man on a ride, presumably before she went for the record. The man won the opportunity in a coin flip with his son. As the plane went on its journey, for unknown reason it pitched forward and the man was tossed to his death. Harriet maintained control briefly before the plane pitched again and she was tossed to her death at age 37(NYTimes 1912 story/obit). Like the more famous, Amelia Earhart, Harriet was quite the looker. Her flying outfit was a quite handsome purple silk jumpsuit. Earhart gained fame perhaps as much for her disappearance as for her flying feats. While Quimby has been largely forgotten, I have an idea that her death highlighted the need of seatbelts in planes. When you buckle up on your next flight, think of Harriet.

Here is a biography of Harriet Quimby.

Now..what about the gator. His name was Big Joe and he lived in the swampy waters around Lake Pontchartrain near New Orleans. A young boy was swimming when the 11 foot gator tore his arm off. Rescuers took him to safety and tracked down Big Joe. Amazingly, after they shot the big guy, they fetched the boys arm from his belly and doctors reattached it over 3 hours later. Miracles happen every day…let’s hope this one is complete with the boy regaining use of his arm. Doctors are not optimistic in this story.