Reagan Replacing Grant on the $50 Bill Ill-Considered
March 9, 2010

Greatness of Grant is Obscured by History

US Grant with his horse, Cincinnati

On This Date in History:  There is a proposal being floated that President Reagan’s image replace that of US Grant on the Fifty dollar bill.  Most people are aware of President Reagan’s accomplishment but his legacy is still being formed.  Most people, however, know very little about US Grant and at least part of his history should be considered.   On April 27, 1822 a new baby boy came into the world near Point Pleasant, Ohio.  His parents gave him the name of Hiram Ulysses Grant.  Fortunately for the child, he was known to everyone by his middle name, Ulysses.  According to Grant biographer, William S. McFeely, when the young lad received an appointment to West Point, he “took advantage of his new start in life to tinker with his name.”    When he registered at Roe’s Hotel, he switched his names and signed the register as Ulysses H. Grant.  Now, his mother had been pushing for his appointment and Congressman Thomas Hamer had little time to make the appointment.  He had known the boy as Ulysses but was uncertain regarding his middle name.  Grant’s mother had been Jesse Simpson before she was married and Hamer knew of Jesse Grant’s maiden name.  So, he made the appointment for Ulysses S. Grant.  When Ulysses appeared for the initial registration, he found that there were two Grants listed.  One was Elihu from New York and the other was for Ulysses S. Grant from Ohio.  He chose the latter.  If he considered making a correction, he never followed through so well before his graduation and commissioning, he was thereafter known as Ulysses S. Grant.

Fort Donelson and Fort Henry Fell to Grant in February 1862

He didn’t do well academically at West Point but did graduate.  He served with some distinction in the Mexican War but left the army before the outbreak of the Civil War.  He did not find much success in civilian life and was working in the family business as a clerk in Galena, Illinois.  To that point, he had been a failure.  At the outset of the war, mainly due to his previous military experience, he became a colonel commanding the 21st Illinois Regiment.  When he first expected hostilities, Grant admitted that he was nervous.  But, when he found that the enemy had abandoned its position, it was then that he realized the enemy was as afraid of him as he was of them and from that point forth never had trepedation heading into battle.  He rose rather rapidly to the rank of Brigadier General and later commanded successful attacks on Fort Henry and Fort Donelson.  At that time, those were just about the only Union successes in the war.  While his commanding officer, Henry Halleck, consistently attempted to  throw up obstacles, Grant caught the eye of President Lincoln who was constantly looking for a general who could lead and who would fight.  He went on to lead a bloody but decisive victory at Shiloh.

Busy Vicksburg Fell to Grant on July 4th

Grant conducted a masterful and daring campaign against Vicksburg, MS which he put under siege.  It is an effort that is often overlooked by many history classes because the fall of Vicksburg happened coincidentally with the battle of Gettysburg.   While Gettysburg was monumental and marked the end of the northern extent of Confederate incursions, it can be argued that Grant’s securing of Vicksburg was militarily more significant than Lee’s defeat at Gettysburg.  By securing Vicksburg, the Union had gained control of the Mississippi River and effectively cut the Confederacy in two.  From that point, Grant led more bold victories in Tennessee.

Lee Surrendered in Best Dress Uniform; Grant Showed Up in Private's Coat

The rank of Lieutenant General had not been used in the military since General Washington held the rank.  I suppose the Lieutenant moniker indicates that the rank is second only to the President, who is the Commander in Chief.  President Lincoln urged Congress to reactivate the position and on this date in 1864, Ulysses S. Grant was advanced to the level of Lt. General…the highest ranking General Officer the nation had seen since General Washington.  At the presentation, Lincoln said, “General Grant, the nation’s appreciation of what you have done, and its reliance upon you for what remains to be done in the existing great struggle, are now presented, with this commission constituting you you lieutenant-general in the Army of the United States.  With his high honor, devolves upon you, also, a corresponding responsibility.  As the country herein trusts you, so, under God, it will sustain you.  I scarcely need to add, that, with what I here speak for the nation, goes my own hearty personal concurrence.”

Grant Still on the $50 Bill...Some Want Ron to Replace him

Grant did go on to lead the Union to victory and became the 18th President of the United States.  We are often told in history of how he was a drunk, his administration was corrupt and he is typically listed near the bottom of most presidential listings.  Nevertheless, it was his delayed actions during Reconstruction that effictively destroyed the Ku Klux Klan in 1871 until it resurfaced in the early 20th century.  Consider that he was one of the most beloved men of his time.  He went on a two year world tour where he was greeted by thousands and welcome by the crowned heads of the world.  In 1881, he was a serious contender for an unprecedented third term.  I’ve always wondered why modern historians think he was so bad when the people who lived during his tenure in office would have even remotely considered him for another term.  Yet, now someone wants to replace US Grant’s image on the $50 bill with that of President Reagan.  That would be a mistake.  Grant needs to be recognized and remembered. 

Grant's Way of War Lives in 21st Century; Lee's Left in Ash Heap of History

Now, critics often point to Grant’s poor standing in his graduating class at West Point to illustrate his shortcomings.  But, at West Point,  the strategy and tactics of de Jomini (Napoleonic) were taught that called for the maintanance of supply lines and concentrating on key points of communication and supply.  Grant claims in his memoirs that he never read all of his books at West Point and that was a help.  He surveyed the situation and determined that his goal should be to use his overwhelming force to attack and annihaliate armies and supplies so that they are unable to continue to make war.  In general, these “Grantonian Tactics” were used by Rommel, Montgomery and today by the US military.  In my view, he was a 20th century man living in the 19th century and his legacy lives on in the 21st century.  US Grant  would recognize what the media came to call “shock and awe” because US Grant invented it.  Read more about Grant and you will find he was a much much greater figure in American history than he is given credit.

SPC Severe Threat Wednesday

SPC Severe Threat Thursday

Weather Bottom Line:  I told you for several days that there would be severe weather and yesterday there was a major tornado in Oklahoma.   The bulk of the severe threat will remain South of Louisville…the Arklatex looks like a good spot and also the Dixie states.  The main system is getting hung up but that means that we will continue to have mild conditions and increasing moisture.  So, rain on Tuesday night will give rise to some lingering showers on Wednesday morning followed by temperatures near 70 in the afternoon and then a threat for t’storms on Thursday.  At this point, as this guy comes out on Thursday, the main severe threat will be South but, I would suggest that its still possible, not necessarily probable, that we get some action around here.  There are several variables at play.  After the main system moves through, we cool down for the weekend but nothing too far from seasonal norms.  The excessive cold long wave pattern seems to have given way to a pattern that will be more supportive of an active spring-like pattern.

Ghost of Booth, His Assassin; Miss CA Coverage
April 26, 2009

Booth Wanted Poster

Booth Wanted Poster

On This Date In History:

A new conspiracy theory got started when presidential assassin John Wilkes Booth is killed in a barn on this date in 1865.  It’s kinda interesting how infamous he is.  Americans these days generally are pretty poor when it comes to history yet, this guy is probably one of the better known villains even today.  Not as well known as Colonel Sanders, but still, Booth was quite famous as an actor.  Today, it would be like a famous, good looking actor like Brad Pitt being an assassin.    Anyway, Booth had escaped Ford’s Theatre by jumping from the presidential box to the stage. His spur caught in a curtain and he landed awkwardly such that he broke his leg.  That made it difficult for him to escape and he eventually got cornered in a barn near Fort Royal, Virginia.  However, there is a site that claims that the Ghost of John Wilkes Booth appeared in Chicago and said that he really broke his leg falling off his horse.  Keep in mind that this site thinks there was a Union General “McClennon” and not the proper McClellan, so I’m not sure how much stock to put in it.

Anyway, the orders were to take Booth alive. With the assassin trapped in the barn, the Union soldiers lit the barn on fire to try and smoke him out.  But, before he had a chance to come out, Sergeant Thomas

Booth's Mummy

Booth's Mummy

Corbett stuck his musket through a slit in the barn walls and shot him.  I think  the thought is  the bullet severed Booth’s spine he died.  So, the assassin was killed and the conspiracy theories began.  Corbett testified that he fired a carbine, yet the autopsy showed Booth was killed with a pistol bullet.  When Booth was dragged from the barn, the officer in charge said, “He shot himself.”  Then of course came the claims that Booth really wasn’t killed and that it was all made up.  There is also the theory that Corbett was part of a cover up and that he killed Booth to make sure that the accused couldn’t talk.  That same type of thing came up 100 years later when Jack Ruby shot Lee Harvey Oswald following the assassination of President Kennedy.   I’m not sure why but someone went and mummified the body of John Wilkes Booth…I suppose as proof that they got their man!

Corbett Could Still Be on the Loose!

Corbett Could Still Be on the Loose!

But, Corbett went on claiming he shot Booth.  So, why did he disobey orders?  He blamed God!  He said that God told him to do it and that his orders from God were ultimate.  He also said that God once told him to avoid sexual temptation.  Instead of avoiding such circumstance, Corbett castrated himself with a pair of scissors in 1858.  He was appointed as the doorkeeper of the Kansas legislature but was dismissed in 1887 after threatening a lawmaker with a gun.  He was committed to an insane asylum (imagine that) but escaped and was never heard from again.  Be careful, perhaps he’s still running around out there somewhere.  Then again, maybe God told him to just go away. 

nolan-ryanOn This date in 1970, Gypsy Rose Lee died and On this Date in 1989,  Lucille Ball passed away.

On This Date in 1990  Nolan Ryan threw is 12th one hitter, tying Bob Feller’s record.  He had a record 7 no-hitters and lost 5 no-hitters in the 9th inning.  My friends and I always went to an Astros game every series they played.  Saw Ryan a bunch of times.  We called him the Big Heater, which I like better than the Ryan Express.

Should Have Answered The Question

Should Have Answered The Question

On This Date in 2000 Vermont Governor Howard Dean signed into law the nation’s first law allowing same-sex couples to form state recognized Civil Unions.  Apparently that wasn’t good enough and now Vermont has joined some other states in making same sex marriage legal.  It is a subject that may have cost Miss California, Carrie Prejean,  her chance at winning the Miss USA title.  The question she received was far tougher than any that the other contestants got and was also presented, in my opinion, for no good reason except to push an agenda.  Not sure why Trump had that character on the judges panel.  But, what most people seem to miss is that the woman didn’t answer the question!  If she had just answered the question, she may have won.  The question wasn’t her opinion, it was about states passing allowing same sex marriage.  All she had to say was that she believed that each state should be able to allowed to make their own laws based on the will of the people, not on courts or judges.  But, instead, she gave her opinion regarding the definition of marriage. So, perhaps she should have lost since she didn’t answer the question…or maybe she should get into politics since politicians are famous for not answering questions.  It’s interesting to see how this is being reported.  The take from Fox News is quite different from the UK Telegraph and certainly, as one might expect, different from the Gay/Lesbian/Trans San Francisco Bay Times.

On This date in 1948 Stevie Nicks was born.  I found a site that lists her as “rocker/druggie”

SPC Severe Outlook Today

SPC Severe Outlook Today

Weather Bottom Line: Okay, we have some changes coming and for Derby Festival organizers it’s not necessarily good.  Sunday we pushed toward 90.  After Monday, the unseasonably warm temperatures will come to an end.  What is happening is that we have a cold front approaching.  But, its bumping into a big fat high in the Southeast and it is not too interested in breaking down much or moving much.   So, what happens is that the front slowly comes through on Tuesday and doesn’t really pass until Tuesday night.  So, rain chances will crescendo on Tuesday.  Now, with that high so fat and happy,  the front won’t move too far south.  It’s possible we have post frontal rain.  The GFS wants to throw out 1.5 inches from Tuesday midday to Wednesday midday.   The NAM tosses out over an inch but starts it earlier on Tuesday and ends it on Tuesday night.  The NAM doesn’t go farther but the GFS indicates rain chances will remain healthy through the rest of the week as the boundary lolligags just to our south and then returns back through the area as another front comes through on Friday.

SPC Severe Outlook Monday

SPC Severe Outlook Monday

The SPC loses interest on severe chances here for Tuesday, in spite of all of the action going on in the plains Sunday and Monday.  The problem is that the air aloft is warm and the jetstream winds slacken off.  So, there is a question of instability.  The vertical profiles indecies support that contention.  However, the GFS is interested in increasing thunderstorm chances throughout the week.  I’ve seen forecasts for Derby Day with a chance for rain but I think that’s the old CYA forecast because it looks like to me from the GFS that a high builds in behind the front for Saturday.   I suppose the question arises from the Euro in that it does have the ridge come in but also has a low coming out of the Southwest with a warm front swinging back up and bringing ample rain on Sunday morning.  My guess is that, should the data hold true, we have good Kentucky Derby weather with mild conditions sandwiched in between rain on Friday and Saturday night or Sunday.  But, the timing of the return flow would be a question and that is why you may see rain chances on Saturday.  It will become more clear as the week progresses.

SPC Severe Outlook Tuesday

SPC Severe Outlook Tuesday

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009
  
   VALID 281200Z – 291200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS THROUGH CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
  
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS
   VALLEY MONDAY WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND SERN
   CANADA TUESDAY AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT CRESTS UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OFF
   THE ERN U.S. COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
   THAT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES. TRAILING
   END OF FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WHERE IT SHOULD
   STALL ACROSS TX BEFORE RETREATING NWD OVERNIGHT. CUTOFF UPPER LOW
   WILL EVOLVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW…AND A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME
   WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CHARACTERIZE THE REMAINDER OF
   THE WRN STATES.
  
   …SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX…
  
   FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE FROM WRN THROUGH NRN TX AS IT BECOMES
   PARALLEL TO DEEP LAYER FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM WRN U.S. TROUGH. SOME
   CONVECTION MAY STILL BE ONGOING IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY EARLY
   TUESDAY. RESERVOIR OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE
   FRONT OR ANY REMAINING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND ADVECT NWWD INTO
   WRN TX AND ERN NM BENEATH PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES. FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS WITH MLCAPE
   AROUND 2000 J/KG. TIMING OF ANY IMPULSES EJECTING INTO THE HIGH
   PLAINS FROM WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE DIFFICULT…BUT ANY
   SUCH FEATURES WILL MODULATE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT DURING THE DAY.
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG E-W ORIENTED
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR ANY REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. OTHER STORMS
   MAY DEVELOP FARTHER WEST WITHIN THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS ERN
   NM AND WRN TX. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL NOT BE
   PARTICULARLY STRONG DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS…VEERING PROFILES
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT…35-45 KT…BULK SHEAR FOR SEVERE
   STORMS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
  
   AS THE SLY NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS…ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
   DESTABILIZATION WILL INCREASE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS PROCESS WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT OF ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
   OVERNIGHT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE…NERN NM AND SWRN KS.
  
   …OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES…
  
   INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED ALONG NARROW AND MODEST MOIST AXIS
   PRECEDING THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD ALONG THE FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED
   WITHIN MODERATE-STRONG SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW.
   HOWEVER…THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. AS
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS…SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY BECOME CAPABLE
   OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL
   REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO INTRODUCE MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT
   THIS TIME.
  
   ..DIAL.. 04/26/2009

http://alphainventions.com/

alphainventions

People Die But Dreams Don’t; Storms Sunday
April 4, 2009

king

On This Date in History:  If you don’t know what happened on this date in 1968.  You should.  It’s one of those times where one wonders what would have been had it not happened.   Here is the text and video of Martin Luther King Jr and his most memorable speech on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial which has come to be known as the “I Have a Dream Speech”

SPC Severe Weather Outlook (Convective Outlook) For Sunday

SPC Severe Weather Outlook (Convective Outlook) For Sunday

Weather Bottom Line:  Short and sweet.  Beautiful weather for Saturday.  Chilly start will lead to highs in the upper 60′s.  Sunday, we will have a brief opportunity to bring back some moisture.  A strong area of low pressure will track almost over us.   While the instability may be marginal due to such a short time to bring back the warm moist air, what little there is as well as strong winds aloft should be sufficient to provide enough lift to create some strong storms on Sunday afternoon.  We will be in the upper 60′s to around 70 prior to the storms arrival and winds will pick up.  Hail and gusty winds appear to be the biggest threat as on Friday my analysis was that the winds may be somewhat unidirectional.  Having said that, the proximity of the upper energy does leave one with the idea that an isolated twister could not be ruled out.  Snow is still possible on Monday but the ground being so warm really limits any accumulation.  Enjoy your Saturday while you can.

 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 AM CDT SAT APR 04 2009
  
   VALID 051200Z – 061200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VLY…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SERN STATES…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   UPR LOW CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION IS FCST TO MOVE
   TO THE CNTRL PLNS BY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DEAMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST
   ON SUNDAY.  ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE OVER THE MID-MS VLY AT 12Z SUNDAY
   WILL DEVELOP ENE ALONG I-70 SUNDAY AFTN…THEN INTO THE LWR GRTLKS
   REGION BY 12Z MONDAY.  TO THE S OF THE LOW…A CDFNT WILL SWEEP SEWD
   CLEARING THE OH VLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND REACHING THE APLCN CREST/SERN
   STATES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. 
  
   …OH VLY…
   NARROW RIBBON OF UPR 40S/LWR 50S SFC DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT NWD
   AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/CDFNT SUNDAY BENEATH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
   /H5 TEMPS AOB MINUS 18 DEG C/.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST
   INSTABILITY BY SUNDAY AFTN WITH A FEW HUNDRED J PER KG OF MLCAPE
   LIKELY FROM SERN IL/CNTRL IND SWD INTO MIDDLE TN.  RATHER VIGOROUS
   ASCENT/DCVA ASSOCD WITH THE UPR SYSTEM WILL ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO
   DEVELOP INVOF THE SFC LOW/CDFNT BY LATE MORNING.  ACTIVITY WILL
   PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A BKN LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL…DMGG WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.  STORMS WILL
   PROGRESS ENE TOWARD SWRN OH/ERN KY/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AFTER DARK
   WITH SVR THREATS DIMINISHING WITH EWD EXTENT. 
  
   …SERN STATES…
   LLVL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE SERN STATES ON SUNDAY
   RESULTING IN FAIRLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION.  MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE
   FLUX WILL LIKELY YIELD ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS… GRADUALLY EVOLVING
   JUST E OF NEW ORLEANS EARLY SUNDAY…THEN EXPANDING ENE INTO SRN
   GA/NRN FL SUNDAY EVE.  THE INITIAL STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
   OWING TO STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING
   SUB-TROPICAL JET CORE.  AFTN SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
   OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN GULF CSTL REGION AS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
   BACKBUILDS INTO THE RICHER LLVL THETA-E AMIDST MEAN WSWLY FLOW
   THROUGH THE COLUMN.  THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE ALL FACETS OF SVR
   WEATHER…INCLUDING TORNADOES ALONG THE MARINE FRONT.
  
   MEANWHILE…AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGGING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
   UPR TROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WILL BOOST LOW/MID-LVL FRONTOGENETIC
   FORCING FROM THE TN VLY SWWD INTO SERN MS/WRN AL.  IT IS UNCLEAR HOW
   THE GULF CST TSTMS MAY MODULATE THE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THIS
   AREA…ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VEERED PRE-FRONTAL FLOW EXPECTED.
   NONETHELESS…INCREASING UPR FLOW AND MASS CONVERGENCE WILL AT LEAST
   YIELD A BKN BAND OF TSTMS INVOF THE CDFNT.  THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
   SEWD INTO GA/SC AND NRN FL BY 12Z MONDAY WITH RISKS FOR DMGG WIND
   GUSTS…HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES.
  
   ..RACY.. 04/04/2009

 

alphainventions

Remnant of Ike Poses an Interesting Challenge-Ryder Cup Looks On Par
September 14, 2008

Ike IR satellite 0914 345Z

Ike IR satellite 0914 345Z

Tropical Storm Ike Forecast Track 0913 11pm

Tropical Storm Ike Forecast Track 0913 11pm

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike including damage photos and video, CLICK HERE

For a Tropical Storm Ike Radar Loop as it moves across the southern plains, CLICK HERE. Navigate anywhere you wish in the nation to street level. Add clouds or lightning if you wish. Click “animate” to loop.

The remnant of Ike will give us a bit of a challenge on Sunday in the Ohio Valley. Late Saturday night the storm had a definite and fairly sound tropical structure with decent banding on radar. The satellite image wasn’t so impressive. The trouble is that the forecast claims that the storm will rapidly lose its tropical characteristics. Question is, when. I find it hard to believe that when its just to the west of Louisville at midday it would have totally gone extra-tropical. We will have windy conditions. We will have a low level jet pouring into the structure. We will have warm moist air. I suspect that we will have a decent condition for some of the banding that produces isolated tornadoes. Not like they had farther

Severe Prediction Center (SPC) Severe Outlook Sunday

Severe Prediction Center (SPC) Severe Outlook Sunday

south…but I think the structure will be enough in tact to allow for some. If you look at the Severe Prediction Center (SPC) outlook, they ride the fence. They give us a 5% probability yet, the discussion sounds a bit more bullish. I won’t be surprised if they make us a slight risk by Sunday. Anyway, its a tough call and needs to be watched closely. The window of opportunity would probably be from around 10 am to 2 pm and thats it as the storm races northeast. Often, in an inland tropical system, you can have low topped cells that do not look particularly menacing. Say, 20K feet. No lightning. And boom…a quick little tornado. Several years ago that happened here. It was Opal or Lilly methinks. The storm center was between Cleveland and Cincinnati. We were well away from any rain…like 300 miles…except for a tiny little cell moving along I-64 from the west. The captain from the Belle of Louisille called in to the NWS and asked if there was a tornado anywhere and the NWS said no…the captain replied “well, I’m looking at one on the river right now.” A warning was issued and the tornado caused some decent damage to several homes. The rain was very very intense. Post analysis was very very difficult to find the tornado on radar…and that was when we knew what we were looking for. Now, that was a very well defined storm still. This one will be deteriorating. But, I still think it may have enough structural intengrity to pose enough of a problem to beware. The Captain of the Belle of Louisville may not be on duty as a weather watcher.

Rain Total Forecast Sun/Mon

Rain Total Forecast Sun/Mon

The weather looks great after that. We get the best chance for general rain after the passage of Ike and the front moves through. If you look at the QPF for Saturday night throug Monday night, you will see that the bulk of the heavy rain should stay to our northwest. Again, the models all say that and I would agree that our best chance for the general rain will be late in the day. But, I still can’t see that Ike will be so fouled up by then that we do not have a risk for passing storms midday Sunday as the remnant moves by. Most people will have less than a half inch of rain, but its possible that those who get an early passing storm may get more than that. It will be cool and cloudy on Monday with lots of sunshine and great conditions for th rest of the week and the Ryder Cup at Valhalla. Friday, Saturday and Sunday should have lows in the low 60′s and highs in the low to mid 80′s.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

VALID 141200Z – 151200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS …

…OH VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES/HUDSON VALLEY/WRN NEW ENGLAND…
HURRICANE IKE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A CNTRL U.S. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TONIGHT LIKELY BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
IKE IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MOVE QUICKLY
NEWD FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH A 60 TO 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET PRESENT JUST EAST OF THE
CENTER. THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
FOR ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE HEAVIER RAINBANDS. AT LEAST A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM SRN IL AND WRN KY SUNDAY
MORNING NEWD INTO OH AND WRN PA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS PA…NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND…LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS IKE APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF IKE…MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS PA AND NY WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS AXIS SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL AS CONVECTION INITIATES
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVES ENEWD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND
DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME
STEEP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 09/13/2008

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