No John Wayne Justice: Strong Storms Sunday April 5, 2009

No Justice For John Wayne and No John Wayne Justice

Marion Morrison on the USC gridiron

On This Date In History

John Wayne got fired on this date in 1931 by Fox studios. Wayne had been born in Iowa but moved to Glendale, CA as a child. He was a star football player at Glendale High School and went to USC on a scholarship. He quit school after two years and in 1928 signed on with Fox after working there doing manual labor. I guess the honchos at Fox didn’t see much in his small roles, so they canned him. He had been using the name Duke Morrison. His real name was Marion Morrison and he took the name of his family dog as a first name. A director at Fox, Raoul Walsh claims he “discovered” Wayne and suggested he use Anthony Wayne, after a Revolutionary War Hero. Fox studios thought it sounded “too italian” so Walsh suggested John Wayne. He had befriended John Ford early in his career and after making several lousy movies for several years for Lonestar/Monogram pictures, including parts as a singing cowboy, Ford cast him in Stagecoach in 1939. The legend of John Wayne was born.

 

Dern as the Notorious Longhair

Duke Gives Dern ("Longhair") Some Real Justice

In short, Fox blew it. But they can claim to have at least given him his final name. See, he was initially given the name Marion Robert Morrison. But his parents had another child and they wanted to call him Robert. So, they changed Marion’s middle name to Michael. Then he became Duke and finally John Wayne. I suppose Fox probably trumpets that they gave John Wayne his name and Raoul Walsh claims he “discovered” Wayne but the truth is that Fox fired a treasure, both in culture and at the box office, and John Ford created Wayne. In my book, Fox Studio chief Winfield Sheehan and Bruce Dern and the bartender in The Shootist are all linked together in the netherworld. Sheehan fired John Wayne, Bruce Dern shot him in the back in The Cowboys as did the bartender in The Shootist. The trio are definitely the biggest scoundrels in cinematic history!!!

Invaders Posed Before Going on Warpath

Bad Guys Even Lynched Ella Watson!

You’d Never See This Type of Justice in a John Wayne Movie: 

By the late 1880′s, cattle ranching in the west had already gone corporate.  The business was monopolized by companies headquartered in New York and London.  The big operators controlled the Wyoming Stock Growers Association and regularly grazed their cattle on government lands, which was illegal, and put the squeeze on the small, independent ranchers.  The Association used their money for political influence and gained the support of both US Senators and the acting governor as well as the state legislature.  The state passed the Maverick Law, which said that any unbranded cattle that was found became the property of the Association.   That allowed the cattle barons to run around seizing the little guy’s cattle that was unmarked.   So, the ranchers retaliated by rustling the barons’ cattle.  After a pretty tough winter that killed lots of livestock, the Association hired “cattle detectives”  who went out to “exterminate” the rustlers, meaning the small ranchers.  On this date 1892, these “detectives” went out into Johnson County, Wyoming with a few dozen Texas gunman as part of their firepower.   The Johnson County Range War was on.

TA Ranch Served As Fort

The first stop was the ranch of Nick Champion who had organized a homesteader round-up of maverick cattle.  Champion watched as his friend, Nick Ray, was gunned down and then held off the motley crew for several hours until they set fire to a wagon and sent it into his cabin.  Champion tried to flee but was cut down in a hail of gunfire.  Two down, more to go.  The mob went to the Johnson County seat of Buffalo.  But, Sheriff Red Angus got word of the impending onslaught and so he did what any good sheriff would do…he raised a posse!  The posse met the barons’ marauders head on and forced them into a make-shift fort at the TA ranch.  Other settlers came to the aid of the posse and soon there were 300 guns surrounding the holed up “detectives.” 

Angus Had a Great Moustache

Now, remember, the barons had lots of cash and influence.  So they got word to their Senators who in turn went in the middle of the night to roust President Benjamin Harrison from bed and tell him to send the cavalry.  Naturally, Harrison acquiesced and sent the cavalry to bail out the invaders.  Just as Red Angus’ men were moving toward the fort with a load of dynamite, the cavalry arrived.  The barons and their band of gunmen got thrown in jail.  But, the political power of the barons had the trial moved to Cheyenne, which was an Association stronghold.  People who witnessed the killing of Ray and Champion were taken out of the state prior to the trial and Johnson County ran out of money after paying for the invaders detention in jail.  Out of funds, the charges were dropped and the barons and their henchmen were set free.  As I said…this never would have happened in a John Wayne movie.

Sunday Convective Outlook SPC

I told you so

Weather Bottom Line:  Forecast continues on track.  Saturday was beautiful, though we only made it to the low 60′s.  Wall to wall sunshine though made it a great day to get out.  I guess the economy isn’t bad for people if they have a job because the mall parking lots were full.  When your in a position  like me though…you simply drive by the stores.  Anyway, I’ve been telling you all week that the SPC would change their tune and start acknowledging the severe risk for our area and, in fact, they finally are getting with the game.  The indecies all week on the vertical profile model runs have been quite impressive.  As I had mentioned earlier in the week, the timing of this system will be much better than the previous events which came as the sun was setting or had already set.  This one will come in the afternoon so I suspect the storms will be on the upswing, not dying out.    One possible inhibiting factor may be that there will not be ample time for a return of moisture which helps make the atmosphere more bouyant.  However, there should be sufficient moisture and warmth to provide some instability and potential energy to work with strong wind dynamics aloft to support strong storms. 

I’m using the 18Z runs from Saturday for this analysis and it probably won’t change much for the later runs.  If the GFS is correct, then we get hammered.  It has a SWEAT index of 563, Lifted

SPC Sunday Tornado Probabililty

Index of -5.3, Total Totals of 59 and a CAPE of 1164.  It brings the action in the afternoon.  But the NAM is far less aggressive.  It doesn’t bring the action in until sunset and the SWEAT index is a formidable, but far less menacing 432.  The other indecies with the NAM are also less ferocious.  My guess is that we will be somewhere in between with the activity getting here prior to sunset and therefore stronger than the NAM suggests.  However, I doubt if the CAPE gets that high.  There is pretty decent veering going on an a strong vertical wind gradient so we might see some tornado warnings but most likely hail and high winds will be the most prevalent danger.  While the veering is decent overall, as I had mentioned yesterday or the day before, there are some key areas in which it seems to be more unidirectional and I betcha these storms will be hauling ass at about 40 or 50 mph to the northeast while the line moves east at about 25 mph.  In any event, I would expect a tornado watch for Sunday afternoon and evening and suggest that you stay tuned to your favorite channel or the radio just in case it gets out of hand.  Remember, it’s Palm Sunday and I’ve told you about the tornado magnetism of Palm Sunday. 

SPC Sunday Damaging Wind Probability

After that, the GFS and the NAM want to throw out snow showers for much of Monday into Monday night.  It will be chilly but I don’t think that the ground will be cold enough to allow for much accumulation.  It may be tough to get to 40 though on either day, especially Monday.  Tuesday maybe low 40′s but by late Thursday into Friday, it would appear we may be in the mix for another round of strong storms. 

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1243 AM CDT SUN APR 05 2009
  
   VALID 051200Z – 061200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY…
   
 

SPC Severe Hail Probability

  …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF
   STATES AND SC…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
  
   ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE WILL EVOLVE
   OVER THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD WHILE AN
   ACTIVE SRN STREAM WILL LIKELY ENHANCE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONG
   CONVECTION ACROSS THE SERN U.S.  THE PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR IS
   THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR.  EVEN SO…STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
   PRIMARILY IN A BIMODAL FASHION DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE
   PROCESSES.
  
   …OH/TN VALLEY…
  
   STRONG MID LEVEL JET…H5 100KT+…WILL EJECT ACROSS AR INTO WRN
   TN/KY BY LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW UPPER LOW TO MOVE
   EAST INTO IL WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL COOLING ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE
   OF JET AXIS.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
   WARM RAPIDLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/SFC LOW OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY SOUTH
   OF WARM FRONT.  THIS WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS WHAT LITTLE
   INHIBITION IS OBSERVED EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE REMOVED
   QUICKLY…ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING WITHIN THE EXIT REGION
   OF THE JET.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG SWLY SHEAR VECTORS
   WILL SUPPORT STORM MOTIONS IN EXCESS OF 45-50KT…CLEARLY SUPPORTIVE
   OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES…IN
   ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL GIVEN COOL PROFILES.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
   CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE PRIMARILY LINEAR IN NATURE…THOUGH AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT…ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM
   FRONT.
  
   …GULF COAST/CAROLINAS…
  
   AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM WILL ONCE AGAIN ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   ACROSS THE GULF STATES TODAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS
   QUICKLY ACROSS SRN MS/AL/NRN FL INTO GA.  GFS/NAM ARE IN SOME
   DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF MCS THAT INITIATES OVER AL
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
   NAM INSISTS THIS CLUSTER WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN GA INTO SRN SC
   WHILE GFS IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS GA/SC.  EITHER SCENARIO IS
   CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT WILL ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHT NWD EVOLUTION…THUS
   NWD EXPANSION OF CURRENT SLIGHT RISK INTO CNTRL GA.  OF SOME CONCERN
   WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS
   DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF SURGING COLD FRONT.
   LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ALONG WIND
   SHIFT…BUT STRONG WLY FLOW AND GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS SUGGEST AN
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD EVOLVE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
   GIVEN THE WEAK MODEL SIGNAL WILL OPT TO KEEP LOW PROBABILITIES
   ACROSS NRN AL/GA.  ADDITIONALLY…SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
   MARGINAL ACROSS NC UNTIL EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD AS BUOYANCY
   SPREADS NORTH QUICKLY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.  DAMAGING WINDS AND
   LARGE HAIL ARE THE GREATEST RISKS WITH MCS CLUSTER OVER THE GULF
   STATES…THOUGH ANY DISCRETE UPDRAFTS CERTAINLY WILL TRY TO ROTATE
   AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
  
   ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 04/05/2009

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Did You Become An April Fool? April 1, 2009

Nothing Like A Whoopee Cushion To Liven Up the Boss's Day!

On This Date in History:  Today is April Fool’s Day.  People take advantage of the opportunity to play silly pranks on friends, co-workers and family.  Sometimes, big goofs even make it into the media.  But how did this nonsense get started.  Well, it’s one of those questions that probably has a hundred different answers.  One is that it goes back to 1564 when France changed their calendar to the Gregorian calendar.  That moved the end of the year from the end of March to the end of December.  The idea is that people who ended the year by celebrating the new year on April 1st were the fools who didn’t know the change.  One problem with that is that apparently the change didn’t come about in just one year but instead was gradually instituted, which according to The UK Independent, people continuing the celebration on the wrong day seems unlikely, though I’m not sure that I understand the logic of that.   Anyway, if you were one of the individuals who celebrated the end of the year during the last week of March, then you were the target of pranks.  One popular one was to stick paper fish onto the fool’s back.  The day in France became known as Poisson d’Avril, or April Fish.  To this day, many in France still refer to April Fools Day as Poisson d’Avril.

April 1, 1861 in New York-Harper's Weekly

The tradition at least dates back to 1708 because a correspondent from the British Apollo magazine “whence proceeds the custom of making April Fools.”  Prior to that, Charles Dickens Jr noted that William Shakespeare was a man who “delights in fools in general” yet the great playwright never mentioned April Fools when he wrote in the late 16th and early 17th centuries.  The whole idea of the calendar change may be more suitable to the British calendar.  Seems that according to one source, it was the Brits and not the French who celebrated the end of the year from March 25 and ending on April 1.    March 25 was the Christian Feast of Annunciation.  The earliest version of the calendar change theory shows up in the British Gentleman’s Magazine in a column that read: 

“The strange custom prevalent throughout this kingdom, of people making fools of one another upon the first of April, arose from the year formerly beginning, as to some purpose, and in some respects, on the twenty-fifth of March, which was supposed to be the incarnation of our Lord; it being customary with the Romans, as well as with us, to hold a festival, attended by an octave, at the commencement of the new year—which festival lasted for eight days, whereof the first and last were the principal; therefore the first of April is the octave of the twenty-fifth of March, and, consequently, the close or ending of the feast, which was both the festival of the Annunciation and the beginning of the new year.“

French Coloring Book Depicting April Fool's Prank

The trouble with this notion is that the English didn’t change their calendar to a January 1 New Year until 1752 and by that time the tradition was pretty well established.  Well, who knows.  Here is another list of April Fool’s origin possibilities to go along with the offering from the Independent.   I wonder if it really goes back to the tradition of charivari that began in France as a rather rambunctious celebration for a  new grrom and bride.  Later, it evolved into a form of protest in which the peasants would dress up with masks and outfits that belittled the bourgousie or even royalty.  But, I suspect that is closer to the origin of Mardi Gras or Carnival than April Fool’s day. 

This Isn't Funny But It's a Joke

One of the earliest forms of hoax provided by the media happened in 1957 when a high-brow British magazine show did a “documentary” on Switzerland spaghetti farmers.  It was the BBC show Panorama and the serious sounding narrator said, “Many of you, I am sure, have seen pictures of the vast spaghetti plantations in the Po Valley.”  The narrator went on to say that there had been a record crop of spaghetti due to “the virtual disappearce of the spaghetti weevil.”   Disbelieving viewers flooded the phone lines.

If you want to find a real joke for this April Fool’s Day, read the Congressional Record.

SPC Severe Threat Thu AM to Fri AM from Midday Tue

GFS Thurs Evening

Weather Bottom Line:  Tell you what…we have a couple of chances for some furniture moving coming up.  The GFS is just going bananas on Thursday afternoon with the verticle profile indecies.  It is much more aggressive with the severe weather threat than the NAM, which advertises thunderstorms.  The reason is that the GFS has some prettygood veering involved as the shortwave comes right over us.  It also appears to be a shade faster than the NAM which puts us closer to the max warming of the day.  Then on Sunday, the GFS has a similar solution with even stronger veering on Sunday evening.  I would be a bit surprised if either of these situations did not result in some strong activity with at least a few warnings of some kind coming out.  My guess is that the Thursday evening event will not be as troublesome as the Sunday evening event.

Now, what is kinda curious is that the SPC is holding off on Sunday as I guess they are waiting for more confirmation.  Currently they are looking well to our south but it would not surprise me to see that expanded into the Ohio Valley.  Last week

GFS Sun Evening

there was a similar scenario and the SPC eventually expanded the region.  The SPC for Thursday evening has us on the edge of the slight risk but, again, I suspect that will be revised as data comes in throughout the day on Wednesday and the data becomes more becomes more consistent.  I’d just keep all of this in mind as we go through the week…worth at least keeping an eyebrow raised.

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009
  
   VALID 021200Z – 031200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY TO PORTIONS OH
   VALLEY AND SRN ATLANTIC COAST…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN — THROUGH CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE
   TROUGH — WILL CONTINUE DAY-3.  NW-FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
   SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH PLAINS DAY-2…THEN
   PIVOT EWD THIS PERIOD ACROSS ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS AS
   INTENSE/COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH…LIKELY CONTAINING CLOSED 500 MB
   LOW.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD REACH VICINITY ERN AR/WRN TN BY 3/00Z.
   FROM THEN ONWARD…PROGS BEGIN TO SPREAD APART CONSIDERABLY ON
   TRACK/AMPLITUDE…WITH SLOWER/SRN NAM SOLUTION TO VICINITY TN/GA
   BORDER BY 3/12Z AND SPECTRAL TO WRN OH.  GREAT MAJORITY OF SREF
   MEMBERS — AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS…HISTORICAL ANALOG
   ALGORITHM AND THIS FORECASTER — FAVORS SPECTRAL SOLUTION OF NEWD
   EJECTION ACROSS OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
  
   THIS SCENARIO SHOULD RESULT IN DEEP SFC LOW MOVING EWD FROM RED
   RIVER VALLEY REGION EARLY IN PERIOD…ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL
   AR…BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED WITH MID-UPPER VORTICITY MAX OVER
   OH VALLEY DURING 3/06-3/12Z TIME FRAME.  TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FCST
   TO SWEEP EWD FROM CENTRAL/E TX ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY BY
   3/00Z…REACHING NEAR COASTAL CAROLINAS AND FL GULF COASTAL BEND BY
   END OF PERIOD.  RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE OVER SERN CONUS…SEE DAY-2
   OUTLOOK FOR BACKGROUND…SHOULD BE LIFTING NWD OVER CENTRAL GULF
   COAST AND FL PANHANDLE REGION EARLY IN PERIOD AS WARM FRONT.
   CONSIDERABLE TIMING UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WARM FRONTAL RETREAT
   ACROSS FL PANHANDLE AND GA BECAUSE OF LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS FRONTAL
   ZONE WILL BE MODULATED/DELAYED BY ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
   FROM LATE DAY-2 THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.  WARM FRONT SHOULD
   MOVE/REDEVELOP NEWD TO TIDEWATER REGION OF NC OR VA BY END OF
   PERIOD.
  
   …MID-SOUTH TO MS DELTA AND AL/GA…
   POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SVR OUTBREAK OVER PORTIONS SERN CONUS
   THIS PERIOD…INCLUDING TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   GUSTS.  ONCE TIMING AND JUXTAPOSITION OF MOST FAVORABLE FOCI WITH
   STRONGEST INSTABILITY APPEAR MORE FOCUSED…SOME PORTION OF THIS
   AREA COULD BE UPGRADED CATEGORICALLY.
  
   EARLY-PERIOD ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL MAY PERSIST
   FROM END OF DAY-2 ACROSS PORTIONS AR.  ASSOCIATED REGION OF LOW
   LEVEL WAA AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT EWD AND
   NEWD ACROSS MID-SOUTH THROUGH DAYTIME HOURS.
  
   POTENTIAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SVR THREAT SHOULD INCREASE
   SUBSTANTIALLY DURING DAY FROM SRN AR/ERN LA EWD AT LEAST TO
   AL…SPREADING FARTHER E DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ONSET OF
   GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL FROM SRN APPALACHIANS AND GA EWD WILL DEPEND
   ON WARM FRONTAL TIMING/MORPHOLOGY…BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   POTENTIAL FOR VERY STG SHEAR AND AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY OVERNIGHT E
   OF MOUNTAINS TO COASTAL CAROLINAS/VA.  EXPECT STG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   AHEAD OF MID-UPPER WAVE TO OVERSPREAD INCREASINGLY MOIST/BUOYANT
   BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FROM MID-DAY ONWARD…SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
   BOTH QUASI-LINEAR/MULTI-MODAL SVR EVENT ALONG FRONT AND TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT.  SFC DEWPOINTS MID 60S F
   SHOULD BE COMMON S OF WARM FRONT…SUPPORTING MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG
   IN AREAS OF SUSTAINED INSOLATION…AND MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG AFTER
   DARK AS FAR NE AS TIDEWATER AREA.  50-75 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD
   BE COMMON BENEATH BROAD BELT OF STG MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS THAT WILL
   SPREAD WSW-ENE OVER OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH PERIOD.
  
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/31/2009

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