The Morning After Ike September 13, 2008

Hurricane Ike Water Vapor Image 0913 1345Z

Hurricane Ike IR satellite 1345 0913

Hurricane Ike Visible Satellite 0913 1345Z

for a more recent update on Hurricane Ike with damage photos and video CLICK HERE

For a Hurricane Ike Radar Loop as it moves through Texas, CLICK HERE. Navigate from the Ohio Valley default and go to street level anywhere in the nation. Add clouds and/or lightning and hit “animate” to loop.

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 11AM 0913

Really, not much to say. Ike is inland and moving quickly toward North Texas. So far, Ike was difficult and dangerous and caused great problems in the Golden Triangle of SE Texas and also SW Louisiana. It caused damage in Galveston and Houston. World Famous Brennans in Houston burned to the ground. But, it would appear that the turn north just prior to landfall limited the storm surge damage as the greatest surge was in much less populated areas of the coast except for Port Arthur.

Now, the national problem aside from the insurance buisness, which before sunrise was predicting claims second only to Katrina (how they know that before they can

3 Day Rainfall Forecast 12Z Sat thru 12Z Tue

see I don’t know), will be the petroleum and chemical supply. Power outages in the

Texas Natural Gas Pipelines

area could last for a very long time. That could affect the start up of refineries. Storm surges may have affected some refineries. 23% of the refining capacity of the US is on the Houston Ship Channel and it seems to have done its job as it stretches inland 44 miles and helps protect interests along the waterway and in the Port of Houston. Nevertheless, there may be damage. There are many other refineries and

Severe Storm Outlook 12Z Sat to 12Z Sun

chemical plants from west of Galveston through Port Arthur to Lake Charles that could be damaged or also disrupted. I’m sure you know in your town right now, gasoline prices have risen. In some areas there may be shortages as, the distribution network is disrupted. Not only are the refineries in SE Texas, but also the greatest grid of natural gas pipe line in the nation. Louisiana and Texas have natural gas all over the place and Texas has over 43,000 miles of pipeline. Those pipes were shut down. Until they are restarted and transmitting natural gas, there may be shortages and higher prices. The price rise will probably be difficult for a month.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

IKE IS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND TOWARD EASTERN TEXAS. MAXIMUM DOPPLER VELOCITIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 100 KT DURING THE PAST HOUR…SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KT…WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. HOWEVER…A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 968.5 MB WAS REPORTED TO THE WEST OF THE EYE AT HUNTSVILLE TEXAS…SO I WOULD RATHER ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND NOT BRING THE WINDS DOWN TOO QUICKLY… ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/14. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED EAST-WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. IKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHARP FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY 24-36 HOURS…IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IKE MAY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OR TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER…THE EXPECTED FORWARD SPEED OF IKE’S SURFACE LOW IS SLOWER IN THE ADVISORY THAN MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DUE TO ANTICIPATION OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLING FROM THE LOW-LEVELS AND RACING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO MORE THAN 100 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK…AND THE TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NOAA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. ALTHOUGH IKE IS SPINNING DOWN AS A HURRICANE IN TERMS OF MAXIMUM WINDS…UNFORTUNATELY…ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS…WESTERN LOUISIANA…AND ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT…AS WILL CONTINUED HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG MUCH OF THE WESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 31.0N 95.3W 70 KT…INLAND

12HR VT 14/0000Z 33.2N 95.1W 45 KT…INLAND

24HR VT 14/1200Z 36.7N 92.3W 30 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

36HR VT 15/0000Z 40.6N 86.2W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT 15/1200Z 44.5N 77.2W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 16/1200Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE

$$ FORECASTER STEWART

Severe Weather Outlook For Friday August 1, 2008

Don’t get too worked up over this. They have us barely in the slight risk I think mainly as a precaution. Most

tornado risk

of the action should be to our north. What the concern for us is that storms

wind risk

develop in Illinois and perhaps an MCS. That would generally move to our north and the potential would be for some stuff fanning out along the axis of vorticity….an appendage perhaps…sticking down and coming through. The general idea is that this type of appendage would tend to fade in the evening, hence, the slight risk is to our north and northwest. Here is the day one outlook discussionthat pertains to us:

…GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY… LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT

hail risk

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION. THIS PROCESS WILL DEVELOP AS AN INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGS SEWD FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES…AND LARGE UPSTREAM RIDGE EXPANDS/AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CNTRL/NCNTRL U.S. MODEST TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WI/NRN IL WHERE GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST COINCIDENT WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WEAKENING INHIBITION AND INCREASING ASCENT WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THESE AREAS EAST ACROSS LAKE MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROMOTING ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS WILL ONLY IMPROVE WITH TIME AS MID LEVEL WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 50KT THROUGH THE EVENING. INITIAL CLUSTERS TO STORMS MAY EXHIBIT SOME INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ALSO INCREASING AS STORM ACTIVITY SPREAD EWD ACROSS LOWER MI INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF IL/IND/OH THROUGH LATER AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AN AXIS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER THESE AREAS ALONG A RESIDUAL WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THESE AREAS…THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT HEATING AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO AID STORM INITIATION IN THIS VERY UNSTABLE REGIME. AS FARTHER NORTH…SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH TIME…AND EVENTUALLY…STRONGER FORCING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS ZONE AS WELL. EXPECT STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE IN THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF A BETTER ORGANIZED MCS FORMING. AMPLIFYING PATTERN SUPERIMPOSED ON THE POSSIBLE MCS SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND EVENT MAY INCREASE INTO THE LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF IND/OH…AND PERHAPS SOUTH ACROSS THE OH RIVER.

Still Not Too Exciting Except For the Wall Street Witch July 3, 2008

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SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK

Same story as previous. SPC still doesn’t like severe threat too much with Thursday night Frontal passage. Lapse rates are not good as mid-level temperatures fall with frontal approach. Moisture also appears to not have much time to get back here and we may have numerous clouds for much of the day. I’ll have more later Thursday. Friday and Saturday look to feature scattered showers. Probably won’t see a total washout on the fourth but scattered afternoon storms seem likely. Not totally out of the question for many people to dry out in time for fireworks, but it’s a timing issue both with regards to the weather and in regard to when you have fireworks.

On This Date In History: Hetty Green died on this date in 1916. Who is Hetty Green? Why the Witch of Wall Street! Seems kinda sexist to call a rather ornery rich woman a “witch” when rich old coots might be called “tough” or “hard nosed.” Anyway, she is said to have learned to read the financial pages at age 6. She inherited a million dollars from her father at age 30. At that point, she became quite shrewd as she bought Civil War Bonds when others thought it was a bad investment. She made a mint. Basically, she took her million inheritance and increased it 100 fold. But, she was rather odd in that she lived like a pauper. Supposedly, Hetty married so that her heirs would be her children and not other relatives that she didn’t care for. She kept an office in a bank from which she negotiated a rent free lease. She moved from hotel to hotel to avoid paying property taxes. Hetty had a son and a daughter and when her boy hurt his leg in a sledding accident, she took him to a charity hospital. Well, hospital personnel recognized her and demand that she pay. She refused and decided to treat the child’s injured leg herself. He ended up losing the leg. She forced her children to eat as she did, which was ham sandwiches. Some call her thrifty, others a miser or the Witch of Wall Street. She died on this date in 1916 of a stroke suffered while arguing with a maid over the price of milk!! Can you imagine what she would be like with today’s rising prices?

Don’t worry, The Who may have been aware of the story because the Kids Are Alright. Hetty left each child $50 million. The more famous J.P. Morgan was worth a reported $70 million and her wealth equaled that of Henry Ford. In 2008 dollars, her fortune would have been near $2 Billion.

See what happens when you watch your pennies? She may have been a witch, but she was probably the wealthiest witch Wall Street had ever seen. Here’s a Forbes list of early wealthy Americans.

LIST OF EARLY WEALTHY AMERICANS