We Need Lucky Luciano In Charge of Kentucky Derby Weather April 29, 2010

We Could Use His Help For Derby Day

Tony Soprano Tale Based on True Story?

On This Date In History: Remember how in the Sopranos that the FBI guys were trying to get Tony to help them out to catch terrorists? Well, in real life that sort of thing has happened in war-time. In WWII it has been said that the underworld controlled the docks in New York and that the government turned to the criminal element for national security help to prevent sabotage and capture spies. Though the veracity of the claim is unclear, US Navy Lieutenant Commander Charles Radcliffe Haffenden was put in charge of New York dock security and said:

Lansky American Patriot?

“I’ll talk to anybody, a priest, a bank manager, a gangster, the devil himself, if I can get the information I need. This is a war. American lives are at stake. “

When the government approached the mobsters to help out Uncle Sam with domestic dockside security, bigshot Meyer Lansky, recalled not being too impressed. He said, “Everybody in New York was laughing at the way those naive Navy agents were going around the docks. They went up to men working in the area and talked out of the side of their mouths, like they had seen in the movies, asking about spies.” Now, the USS Normadie had been converted to a troop ship (aka USS Lafayette) and on Feb. 9, 1942 it mysteriously burned (video) while at the New York docks. The suspicion was sabotage and the event spurred both the mob and the Feds to get together for the good of the country and the story is that the government stayed out of the activities of organized crime on the docks in return for security.

Luciano Happy To Help?

While he never actually acknowledged that he and his cohorts helped out in the war effort stateside, it is notable though that Lansky never denied helping the government. Anyway, the real boss in the New York syndicate was Charles “Lucky” Luciano who had risen through the ranks of organized crime after arriving in the US as a poor immigrant from Sicily earlier in the century. He earned the “Lucky” moniker by numerous escapes from “hits” put out on him by his competition. In 1943, Luciano was serving a 30-50 year prison sentence. The allies were planning on invading Sicily but didn’t have much intel. Luciano is portrayed as having an allegiance to the United States but he also had a vendetta against Benito Mussolini who had cracked down on the mafia in Italy in the 1920′s. So, on this date in 1942 US Naval intelligence asked for Luciano’s help as the Allies attempted to invade Italy. Lucky eventually agreed and the results were spectacular. With the hundreds of informants attracted with Luciano’s help,

Luciano Deported 1946

United States intelligence officers were able to infiltrate Italy’s naval headquarters and get all sorts of maps and documents. It is said that Luciano’s helpers were even able to convince some Italian soldiers not to fight…but they weren’t doing much of that anyway as the German army did most of the heavy lifting. Of course, the invasion was successful and the rest, as they say, is history.

The US Navy tried to cover its trail regarding the work with the underworld but eventually it came out with perhaps the greatest evidence being the inexplicable release of Luciano from prison in 1946 after serving just 10 years of his sentence. Luciano was deported to Sicily continuing his fame as being Lucky Luciano.

SPC Severe Weather Probability 7AM Derby Day to 7 AM Sunday

Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast: We’re going to need a lot of luck for Derby Day because,  if you want good weather for the Kentucky Derby, come back next year. Now, Oaks Day looks great.  But the story that I’ve been eyeballing all week is really getting lots of data supporting it.  In general, it would seem to me that we get a cold front coming close to us and it stalls.  It gets parallel to the Southwest to Northeast Jetstream flow and stays oriented from around Gary, IN to east of St. Louis to Texarkana and on through San Antonio.  At low levels, there will be lots of moisture converging up the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.   I think we’ll have two time frames of maximum rain as two separate jet streaks comes through associated with an upper low. 

GFS Over 2 inches on Derby Day

Oaks Day will be fine..in fact it will be great.  Oaks Day weather looks to be in the low to mid 80′s, breezy and partly cloudy.  Then the first disturbance and strong upper energy comes through bringing heavy rain from say 6 AM to Noon.  Then, I would think that we’d see more scattered activity on Saturday afternoon during most of the races and the condition of the track will be a function of how well the track drains.  The NAM follows what makes sense to me and is most likely as it has an inch of rain from 7AM to 1 Pm and then a tenth of an inch in the afternoon.  Then, the second wave comes through Saturday night with the strong upper jet winds as it may even develop into a surface feature.  If we get severe weather, it seems that this would be the most likely time and high winds would be the biggest bugaboo. But, the story will be rain.  The NAM concludes at 7PM on Sunday with a 36 hour total of about 4 inches.  I’m referring to the 12Z Thur run so it doesnt’ go beyond 7 PM on Sunday but I bet it would have slightly more rain in the offing.  This scenario seems most sensible  to me.

By Sunday Evening GFS dumps over 5 inches of rain for 36 hour total

HOWEVER….the GFS…has a similar solution except that it has heavy rain all day on Saturday and carries it through Sunday night.  By early Monday morning, the GFS has over 5.1″ of rain in less than 36 hours.  The biggest difference is that the GFS has substantially more rain during the races on Derby Day than the other models.  The GFS solution has been closest to what is now the consensus all week and it makes the least sense should we have two seperate jet streaks.  With two different streaks it would call for something less in between.  However, we are going to stay in a jet stream flow over the top of us and, if there is no confluence aloft to limit rain, then we would get persistent rain. 

The Derby will be wet one way or another.  The degree of wetness is the question.  For we locals, make sure that drains are clear because, unlike the South, our geology is  not conducive to supporting such rainfall….not to mention the pumps  of which I might remind the authorities only work properly if you turn them on!

Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast From 4.29.09; Uncle Sam Got Lucky in World War II April 29, 2009

SPC Severe Outlook Fri 8am to Sat 8am

Kentucky Derby Forecast: (See Most Recent Update By Clicking Here) The forecast for the next several days remains pretty much in line with my previous outlook. The week leading up to Derby Day will be unsettled with a frontal boundary stalled over or near the area for the remainder of the week.  There will be a risk of showers and scattered t’storms each day.  On Friday there is a little wave of energy that runs up along a stalled boundary and strong storms will be possible late Friday into Friday night.   It is not out of the question that the storms may be here for Oaks Day and the running of the Kentucky Oaks race itself.  At this time, it’s too soon to be that accurate with the timing.  However, if storms do erupt in the afternoon in the heat of the day, that will only enhance severe chances.  If I recall correctly, last year there were severe storms all around the place on Oaks Day and we may see a repeat performance.

The result of the low running along the front is that, once it passes, then it will energize the boundary and start it on its way South.  High pressure will build in briefly on Saturday which should make for a mild, but dry Derby Day with highs in the upper 60′s.  Handicappers will have to consider the track conditions from the amount of rain the previous afternoon and night.  I think it drains pretty well and any shower activity that occurs overnight should be over by Saturday morning. Check back daily for updates.   See the SPC Convective Outlook Discussion Below

Tony Soprano Tale Based on True Story?

On This Date In History:  Remember how in the Sopranos that the FBI guys were trying to get Tony to help them out to catch terrorists?  Well, in real life that sort of thing has happened in war-time.  In WWII it has been said that the underworld controlled the docks in New York and that the government turned to the criminal element for national security help to prevent sabotage and capture spies.  Though the veracity of the claim is unclear,  US Navy Lieutenant Commander Charles Radcliffe Haffenden was put in charge of New York dock security and said:

Lansky American Patriot?

“I’ll talk to anybody, a priest, a bank manager, a gangster, the devil himself, if I can get the information I need. This is a war. American lives are at stake. ”

When the government approached the mobsters to help  out Uncle Sam with domestic dockside security, bigshot Meyer Lansky, recalled not being too impressed.  He said,  “Everybody in New York was laughing at the way those naive Navy agents were going around the docks.  They went up to men working in the area  and talked out of the side of their mouths, like they had seen in the movies, asking about spies.”    Now, the USS Normadie had been converted to a troop ship and on Feb. 9, 1942 it mysteriously burned while at the New York docks.   The suspicion was sabotage and the event spurred both the mob and the Feds to get together for the good of the country and the story is that the government stayed out of the activities of organized crime on the docks in return for security.

Luciano Happy To Help?

While he never actually acknowledged that he and his cohorts helped out in the war effort stateside, it is notable though that Lansky never denied helping the government.  Anyway, the real boss in the New York syndicate was Charles “Lucky” Luciano who had risen through the ranks of organized crime after arriving in the US as a poor immigrant from Sicily earlier in the century. He earned the “Lucky” moniker by numerous escapes from “hits” put out on him by his competition.   In 1943, Luciano was serving a 30-50 year prison sentence.  The allies were planning on invading Sicily but didn’t have much intel.  Luciano is portrayed as having an allegiance to the United States but he also had a vendetta against Benito Mussolini who had cracked down on the mafia in Italy in the 1920′s.  So, on  this date in 1942 US Naval intelligence asked for Luciano’s help as the Allies attempted to invade Italy. Lucky eventually agreed and the results were spectacular.  With the hundreds of informants attracted with Luciano’s help,

Luciano Deported 1946

United States intelligence officers were able to infiltrate Italy’s naval headquarters and get all sorts of maps and documents.  It is said that Luciano’s helpers were even able to convince some Italian soldiers not to fight…but  they weren’t doing much of that anyway as the German army did most of the heavy lifting.  Of course, the invasion was successful and the rest, as they say, is history.

The US Navy tried to cover its trail regarding the work with the underworld but eventually it came out with perhaps the greatest evidence being the inexplicable release of Luciano from prison in 1946 after serving just 10 years of his sentence.  Luciano was deported to Sicily continuing his fame as being Lucky Luciano.

Storm Prediction Center Convective Outllook Discussion

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

VALID 011200Z – 061200Z

…DISCUSSION…

GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING FUTURE
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW NOW SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW THOUGH
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST. CONSENSUS IS THAT FINAL PIECE
OF THIS FEATURE WILL SHEAR INTO THE NRN PLAINS DAY 4 AND BECOME
ABSORBED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF
LARGE VORTEX SITUATED OVER ERN CANADA. THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE
EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

DAY 4…COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND OH
VALLEY FRIDAY AS THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. MOIST AXIS WILL ADVECT NEWD THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR ACROSS THE OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEWD MIGRATING LOW
LEVEL JET. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY REGIONS WHERE MODEST
INSTABILITY BUT STRONG SWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS AND
OK WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY EXIST.

DAY 5…SATURDAY A SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
TRAILING END OF FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF TX WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN. HOWEVER…THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN A HIGHER END SEVERE
THREAT.

DAY 6…THOUGH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES EXIST…MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY MOVE INTO THE SRN
PLAINS WHERE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF DRYLINE
AND SOUTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS…BUT WILL HOLD OFF
DELINEATING AN OUTLOOK AREA GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE.

BEYOND DAY 6 PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW.

..DIAL.. 04/28/2009

http://alphainventions.com/

alphainventions

911: I Want My Shrimp! Bad Real Estate Investor April 9, 2009

Don't Buy Real Estate From This Man!

Only Three Shrimp? Call the Cops!

I want my Shrimp!  This is great and also silly at the same time.  So, this lady goes into a fast food place and orders extra shrimp with her fried rice.  She claims that she didn’t get her shrimp.  She argues with the manager and calls the cops demanding her extra shrimp.  Here’s the story with audio of the call for your amusement.

On This Date in History:  Wilmer McLean was a Virginia grocer.  He probably did fairly well at his craft.  But, he didn’t have much luck when it came to real estate.  See, he had a patch of land not too far from the nation’s capital.  The first major conflict of the Civil War was known as the Battle of Bull run and it took place on McLean’s land.  Not only that, but Confederate General P.G.T. Beauregard thought that the McLean house would make a good headquarters, so he comandeered it.  The land was ravaged by the warfare and the house took a beating as a Union cannonball came crashing through the kitchen. 

Lee's Table Not as Valuable as Grant's

After the battle, McLean hung on but gave up a year later when the entire episode was repeated during the Second Battle of Bull Run.  McLean picked up his family and moved to a small town some miles away. 

After a couple of years, McLean thought he’d made a good move until this date in 1865.  See, Generaly Ulysses S. Grant had gotten General Robert E. Lee to abandon Petersburg and Lee’s army was on the run until finally, Lee sent Colonel Charles Marshall to find an appropriate site for a conference between the two army’s commanders near the small town of Appomattox Courthouse, Virginia which was some miles from the old McLean house.  The first person that Marshall came upon was none other than Wilmer McLean.  McLean first steered the colonel to an abandoned house with no furniture in it.  Colonel Marshall quickly dismissed the idea.  McLean felt like it was all but inevitable that the war had reached out and grabbed him again so he offered his home. 

Parlor In Lower Left Hand Room

On that afternoon, General Robert E. Lee signed the articles of surrender to General Ulysses S. Grant in the front parlor of the McLean home and effectively ended the Civil War, though some skirmishes would go on for several days.  Now, this was a pretty historic occasion and the soldiers on hand knew it.  They wanted a piece of history.  Union General Edward O.C. Ord gave McLean $40 for the table at which Grant had sat.  Another Union General, either Philip Sheridan or George A. Custer, got a good deal by  acquiring the table at which Lee sat for just $25.  At that point, McLean figured he needed his furniture and brought an end to the impromtu rummage sale.  But, less honorable individuals would have none of it.  Chairs were broken up, upholstery ripped and the parlor was torn to pieces as if another cannonball had ripped through.  Once again, Wilmer McLean had been touched by Civil War history…and his house took a beating.  Maybe he should have moved to Texas. 

Bear More Valuable Than Jesus?

The selling of the Grant table for more than the Lee table reminds me of when I lived in Birmingham.  I once went into an art store.  On some shelves were busts.  Confederate General Nathan Bedford Forrest went for $500.  Robert E. Lee and Jesus Christ went for $550.  Bear Bryant?  He went for $600!    Yes indeed, it’s the bible belt and they love Robert E. Lee and Jesus, but you better not schedule a church social when Alabama football has a game!

 

Thu 8am to Fri 8am

Weather Bottom Line:  The weather situtation looks pretty much on track.  We still have a lead short coming out for Thursday and Friday.  Earlier I had made mention of this and thought it looked like trouble a week ago.  But, I kinda backed off as I got swayed a bit by the SPC assessment, plus the main bit of energy for the latter part of the weekend looked like the real thing.  But, as the week progressed, the indecies started coming back up for Friday and now the SPC has jumped on board by putting us in a slight risk.  What we have is two chances.  First a warm front comes through early Friday morning.  That would be one chance for strong storms.  Then after a break, the cold front comes through and we have a second chance.  The GFS has backed off somewhat on its wild indecies but they are still impressive for the afternoon while teh ETA remains less enthusiastic.  My guess is that our biggest risk will be hail and gusty winds with hail more risky with the warm front.  Now, everyone has been pooh poohing the main energy and I have to tell you that the vertical profile indecies look pretty pedestrian for Monday.  But,  when you look at the map, I’m not sure why the indecies are not more enthusiastic.  I’m not analyzing this that closely but, if the indecies are so bland, there must be some items missing whether it be CAPE or shear or the proper veering…perhaps there is some dry air or warm air aloft messing things up.  It appears to be all of the above as simply we get some cooler air for the weekend following the lead short and there simply isn’t enough time for the atmosphere to reload.  I still am a little curious as to how the second part shakes out.  We’ll just have to wait and see but I can’t ignore that the data does not support anything worthwhile on Monday.  So bottom line is risk for storms late Thursday night or early Friday and then again Friday afternoon with cooler weather for the weekend.

Fri 8am to Sat 8am

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1216 PM CDT THU APR 09 2009
  
   VALID 101200Z – 111200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH AND TN
   VALLEY SWD INTO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES AND EWD INTO THE
   CAROLINAS…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
  
   AN AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED
   OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD.  THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF
   INTEREST WILL BE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
   EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE TRANSLATING EWD FROM THE OZARK
   PLATEAU AND LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY
   MORNING.  AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS…LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
   THAT AN UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMUM/JET STREAK WILL ROTATE THROUGH
   THE MEAN TROUGH BASE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO VA/NC FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS ERN U.S. WAVE WILL PRECEED A MORE
   INTENSE TROUGH WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A CLOSED SYSTEM OVER
   THE LOWER CO VALLEY INTO NRN BAJA AND THE GULF OF CA.
  
   IN THE LOW LEVELS…SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH
   RIVERS AT 10/12Z WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS NRN KY AND SRN
   WV…EVENTUALLY REACHING THE DELMARVA BY 11/12Z.  ATTENDANT COLD
   FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND GULF STATES TO ALONG
   THE MID/SERN ATLANTIC COASTS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
  
   …OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES AND EWD TO THE
   CAROLINAS…
  
   EML/STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME OBSERVED OVER THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING
   WILL BE ADVECTED EWD INTO THE REGION WITH WSWLY AIRFLOW
   REGIME…ALONG SRN THROUGH ERN PERIPHERIES OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
   WHILE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE OVERLY MOIST /I.E.
   DEWPOINTS IN 50S OVER KY/TN TO LOWER/MID 60S OVER THE GULF
   STATES/…THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH GENERALLY COOL
   MIDLEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL YIELD MLCAPE APPROACHING
   1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE TN VALLEY/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU…TO 1500-2000
   J/KG OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES.
  
   TSTMS /SOME SEVERE/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN
   ZONE OF DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OH
   AND LOWER MS VALLEYS…AS WELL AS WITHIN WAA REGIME FARTHER E ACROSS
   PARTS OF ERN TN/AL/NRN GA.  THE FORMER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE
   IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
   ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL KY/MIDDLE TN SWD INTO AL AS
   STRONGER FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY VORTICITY
   MAXIMUM ACT ON DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. 
  
   GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR RANGING FROM 30-40 KT INVOF SURFACE LOW OVER KY TO 50-65 KT
   INTO MS/AL/GA…ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   CURRENTLY…IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST
   ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN INTO NRN PARTS OF AL/GA AND PERHAPS AS FAR E AS
   WRN SC FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  HERE…REINTENSIFICATION OF A
   SWLY LLJ WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO ABOVE-MENTIONED…SECONDARY
   VORTICITY MAXIMUM RESULTING IN NOTABLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   /I.E. 0-1 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 30-35 KT/.  SHOULD FUTURE NUMERICAL
   GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SIMILAR
   THREAT…A MODERATE RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT DAY ONE
   OUTLOOKS.
  
   PRE-FRONTAL CLUSTERS/BANDS OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
   NIGHT EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND PIEDMONT…
   EVENTUALLY INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS.  WHILE INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO
   DIMINISH WITH TIME…A STRONGLY SHEARED KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
   CONTINUE TO FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES WILL
   THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS…HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES.
  
   ..MEAD.. 04/09/2009

alphainventions

War Not Over So Senate Stages Drunken Bash March 26, 2009

Ladies Who Weren't Invited To the 1804 Senate Bash

 

This Date In History

Bigger Than This Loaf of Bread?

In 1801, Charles Wilson Peale unearthed a previously un-named prehistoric skeleton. It became known as a Mastadon but, at the time, it got the nickname Mammoth for its size. So, the term mammoth became popular in early 19th century America to describe something very large. In 1802, President Thomas Jefferson received a “mammoth” 1200 pound hunk of cheese from a bunch of Baptist from Massachusettes in appreciation for his advocation of religious tolerance. Remember, the Baptists weren’t always welcome in many corners of early American society, but they had been an effective thorn in the side of the Brits in Colonial America, particularly in places like Williamsburg.

Modern Day Tipsy Senator?

In any event, on this date in 1804, Jefferson attended a public party in the Senate that featured a “mammoth loaf” of bread. The big ole loaf of bread was baked to go along with what was left of the two year old cheese….and a giant portion of roast beef….and an ample supply of alcohol. The occasion was to show support for Jefferson’s use of the US Navy to go after the Barbary Pirates. The Barbary Coast was an area of Northern Africa which was supposed to be part of the Ottoman Empire but was really controlled by local powers in Tunis, Algiers and Tripoli. It was a region controlled by Islamists. They had been impairing US commerce so Jefferson sent the US Navy to enforce and, if need be attack, the bad guys. Numerous battles ensued. One note of interest….this military action of the United States against these Islamic states was funded by Congress, but was an undeclared military action by the United States that lasted

Reuben James Puts His Head on the Line to Save Decatur

for some 4 years. Those who think the Iraq war or the current conflict in Afghanistan, or Vietnam or Korea  were unprecedented need to look more at Thomas Jefferson’s presidency. There are differences but the similiarities are worth noting, especially when one looks at Iraq.  Oh yes..its also worth noting that written observations say that the event with the “mammoth loaf” and the leftover “mammoth cheese” turned into a drunken, noisy affair…something some folks might say has been going on in the Senate ever since.  President Jefferson walked up, pulled out his pockeknife and sliced the first piece of bread and the party was on.  The booze was flowing.  The war wasn’t over but the party went on anyway. 

Now, there had been a big victory on February 16, 1804 in which a daring plan was undertaken when the Americans went into Tripoli Harbor and stealthily boarded the captured American Frigate Philadelphia.  The 74 volunteers were led by Lt. Stephen Decatur.  The group was successful in torching the Philadelphia but not without a fight.  During the hand-to-hand fighting, Botswain’s Mate Reuben James was seriously wounded but still managed to get himself in between and enemy combatant with a very large sword and the group’s commander, Decatur.  James literally put

World War II Destroyer Reuben James

Frigate USS Reuben James

his life on the line to save the commander.  James eventually recovered from his injuries and served in the Navy for more than an additional 3 decades.  That is why there is a frigate currently in the US Navy called the USS Reuben James (FF 57).  His story is one in US Navy lore to exemplify the heroic tradition of the service.  And the action taken by Decatur and his entrourage was called “the most daring act of the age” by British Admiral Lord Nelson.  So, it was a pretty big deal and its the only reason I can think of to justify such a bash by the Senate…that is of course unless one wants to discount the possibility that the Senators just wanted an excuse to party down.  Because, it certainly wasn’t because of the war…it wasn’t over for another year and really wasn’t completely settled until 1815.

SPC Convective Outlook Fri 8AM to Sat 8AM

SPC Convective Outlook Sat 8AM to Sun 8AM

Weather Bottom Line: 

I’m tempted to break out Colonel Klink but its too early to be offering any “I told you so” comments, especially since its a shade off on timing.  But, the above depiction is the SPC Convective Outlook for Friday March 27 to Saturday March 28.  Notice how far north they have taken the severe risk area…all the way to Louisville.  Now, the reason it doesn’t encompass Loiusville is due to timing.  The next day the region is to our east.  Hence, when the storms may come over us, it will be well into the night and so the timing issue arises.  But, we still will have a risk of t’storms either late Friday or, if the system slows a bit, then a better chance on Saturday.  Having said all of that….I would plan on rain on Friday night with possible storms and also look for rain with storms on Saturday and the data seems to support pretty good looking activity through Saturday afternoon.  I would not be surprised to see the SPC make a further revision in their slight risk area.  Just something to keep in mind.  Otherwise, Thursday looks damp the first part of the day and somewhat coolish in the low to mid 60′s.  Friday should be decent with highs in the mid to upper 60′s.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009
  
   VALID 271200Z – 281200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX EWD INTO TN VALLEY
   AND CNTRL GULF STATES…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
  
   A SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE
   SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY THREE PERIOD.
   THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 100+ KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND
   INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE HIGH-LEVELS…BETWEEN CYCLONICLY
   CURVED POLAR JET STREAK AND SUBTROPICAL JET SITUATED ALONG THE GULF
   COAST.  THE NET RESULT WILL BE INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT SPREADING EWD THROUGH OK/TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH
   THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  
   IN THE LOW LEVELS…LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
   TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS BEING THE
   MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPEST SOLUTION.  BOTH MODELS HAVE INDICATED
   FAIRLY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO FOLLOWED
   FOR THE SURFACE PATTERN.  AS SUCH…IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY SURFACE
   LOW WILL DEVELOP FROM N-CNTRL TX ENEWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX BEFORE
   MOVING MORE NNEWD TOWARD THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS AND OH RIVERS.
   TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY WHILE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
   TOWARD THE OH RIVER.
  
   …ERN TX EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES…
  
   …POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FRI AND FRI
   NIGHT…
  
   MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A RATHER BROAD WARM SECTOR
   WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FRI FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
   STATES WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 60S TO PERHAPS AROUND
   70 ALONG THE COAST.  THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES…RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY
   AFTERNOON.
  
   TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FRI MORNING BOTH WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND N OF
   WARM FRONT FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
   ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
   COLD FRONT AS A BAND OF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM
   OVERSPREADS FRONTAL ZONE.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE ALONG
   COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EWD THROUGH THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY.
  
   UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE
   MODE…DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY…AND WHETHER ANY WEAKER
   IMPULSES WILL PRECEDE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH…POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING
   THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIVE EVENT.  HOWEVER…SHOULD A WARM
   SECTOR ENVIRONMENT SIMILAR TO THE 25/00Z GFS ACTUALLY DEVELOP /I.E.
   MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J PER KG AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KT/…THE
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO EVENT FRI AND FRI
   NIGHT. 
  
   A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WILL BE INTRODUCED ATTM DUE TO THE
   ABOVE-MENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES.  HOWEVER…SHOULD MODEL GUIDANCE
   REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENTLY FORECAST
   THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS…AN UPGRADE TO AT LEAST MODERATE
   RISK WILL BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
  
   ..MEAD.. 03/25/2009

Plot To Burn New York Foiled By NYFD March 25, 2009

Confederates Hoped to Find New York City The Same Turmoil As 1863

 

 

On this Date in History:  When you get to late 1864, the prospects of the South were running low.  The west was pretty much subdued and General William T. Sherman was making his march to the sea.  Now, in a post from last October, I told you about how Confederate raiders in October 1864 made the northernmost attack on the Union in Vermont as they raced into St. Albans, Vermont and robbed several banks before fleeing back to Canada.  Well, the Candian plot wasn’t done just yet.

Harper's Weekly Rendition of Arsonist

The Confederate Canadian agents, perhaps emboldened by their Vermont excursion came up with a bolder plan.  They would burn New York City.  The agents had been assured that the city was ripe for rebellion.  Now, that may have been true earlier in the war when there was the infamous New York Draft Riot  against the war, but by late in 1864, it was no longer the case.  A case of bad intelligence.  Undeterred, the plotters decided that they would bring the horror of war home to New Yorkers and carried out their plan on November 25, 1864.  Happy Thanksgiving, right?  Here was the plan:  An agent would check into a Gotham hotel, concealing a incendiary liquid in glass.  Its called a Greek fire in a valise.  The perpetrator would set his room ablaze and then leave.  After several of these firebugs successfully created several infernos, the city streets were filled with rumors as panic people ran about and firemen ran helter skelter from hotel to hotel.    One thing the arsonists didn’t count on was the famed New York Fire Department.  Today’s heroes of

Kennedy: Bad Timing

New York were yesterday’s heroes of New York as well.  Twelve fires broke out almost simultaneously but the firemen reacted so quickly the damage was limited and the fires were extinguished.  So much for the great Greek fire.

Well, it turned out to be a Greek tragedy for one of the perpetrators.  Two were captured, including Confederate Captain Robert Cobb Kennedy.  On this date in 1865, Kennedy was hanged for his failed enterprise and received the distinction of being the last soldier hanged before the end of the Civil War…which effectively came a little more than 2 weeks later with the surrender of Robert E. Lee to General Ulysses S. Grant at Appomattox Courthouse, Virginia on April 9, 1865.    They say that timing in life is everything, but I’d say this is one of the greatest examples and consequence to bad timing. 

SPC Wed Convective Outlook

SPC Thu Convective Outlook

Weather Bottom Line: 

The storms that were so ferocious out west did pretty much what I said that they would do which is to fall apart.  But, they were even more benign than even I thought.  Temperatures will back off a bit but be far from cold for the rest of the week. Generally in the low to mid 60′s.   We could still see some showers for Wednesday morning and then again on Thursday.  Wednesday would be post frontal and Thursday would be the fringes of an area of low pressure that will move through the Dixie states and may cause some mischief there.  Now, on Saturday we move back toward 70 and that is the day that I have been suspicious about possibly giving us some action.  There will be a strong low coming out of the west on Friday.  The ETA is advertising some pretty decent rain Friday night and the GFS concurs though its less intense and doesn’t seem as interested in t’storms as the ETA.  The SPC isn’t too enthused either but…if the low trajects northeast a bit sooner than the current data suggests then it may be a different story.  I suspect that what is happening is that the Friday night rain will settle things down enough that anything on Saturday won’t be that exciting.  However, the possibility remains and I do note that in the SPC discussion, they keep the option open to issue an area of concern for Saturday, though they seem to be more focused on areas to our south and southeast.  The air behind the weekend system is still not too terribly cold because there is another in the series of storms coming out of the northwest that will prevent the cold air from moving too far south.

SPC Friday Convective Outlook

 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009
  
   VALID 271200Z – 011200Z
  
   …DISCUSSION…
  
   LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT /IN BOTH
   INTER-MODEL COMPARISON AND INTRA-MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TENDENCIES/ IN THE
   EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH D5 /SAT MAR 28TH/.
   THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME…A POWERFUL MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
   TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON D4 /FRI MAR 27TH/
   BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON D5.  IN
   THE LOW LEVELS…SURFACE LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL DEVELOP NEWD
   THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY…AND EVENTUALLY MORE NWD INTO THE GREAT
   LAKES.  MEANWHILE…TRAILING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD
   THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS…LOWER MS VALLEY…EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
   MID/SERN ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE D5 OR D6 /SUN MAR 29TH/.
  
   ON D4…A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD/NEWD
   ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT.
   THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND
   INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT TO FOSTER WIDESPREAD TSTMS ACROSS THE
   REGION FRI AND FRI NIGHT.  SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
   FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN SYSTEM
   WARM SECTOR.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR…THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
   FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE…INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR
   STRONG TORNADOES.
  
   THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO D5 OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES EWD TO THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST.  GIVEN
   THAT THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW AND STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING WILL
   REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO THE N OF THE REGION…THERE IS SOME
   QUESTION AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE.
   THEREFORE…NO AREA WILL BE DELIMITED ATTM.
  
   BEYOND D5…MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE…LEAVING THE REMAINING
   PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD QUITE UNCERTAIN.
  
   ..MEAD.. 03/24/2009