Typhoon Parma,Typhoon Melor forecast aided by satellite with origins of 52 yrs ago October 4, 2009

Western Pacific Color IR 1730Z 10.04.09

For a more recent update on Parma and Typhoon Melor CLICK HERE

Parma JTWC Forecast Track

Typhoon Parma forecasting continues to be a daunting task. More than a day ago, I told you of the prospects of the storm potentially coming back toward the Philippines in reaction to Typhoon Melor (JTWC warning/discussion text)  passing by to the east. I suspect that the forecasters knew this too but they were trying not to alarm the populus until more descernable evidence showed up. Now, the media has finally gotten clued into the possibility. “It is possible that it (Parma) will make U-turn and will hit Luzon again,” said forecaster Nathaniel Cruz. I mentioned that a couple of days ago. I want to emphasize that its just a possibility at this point. So far, the storm has not been handled well consistently by any model and the official forecasts have been all over the place. But, the potential for a return visit remains on the table.

W. Pacific Water Vapor Image/Loop

Those are ifs and buts so lets look at whats really going on.  A trof emerged out of China and dove down toward Parma.  That has done some damge to the storm sufficiently weakening to to Tropical Storm status.  That is good news.  Bad news is that it still has pretty good looking circulation.  The satellite imagery shows just how much the storm has eroded.   Northern convection is almost absent and an eye is tough to find.  As long as it keeps that circulation, once the trof moves by, then it could start to regain intensity…BUT…if it does stay pretty much quasi-stationary…or generally in the same spot, what will happen is that the warm water on the ocean surface gets washed around and colder water below comes to the surface to take its place.  This is called upwelling and a tropical cyclone cannot stay in one place for long and expect to live because cold water will come to the surface and it needs water temperatures of at least 26.5 degrees C to survive.  So, will it stay in one place?  The fate of Tropical Storm Parma may fall to Super Typhoon Melor.

Typhoon Melor JTWC Forecast Track

How these two storms are related is as follows.  Typhoon Melor is a very well developed Super Typhoon.  Its forecast track takes it across the Philippine Sea and swings all the way to the eastern Luzon Strait.  It has a counter-clockwise flow.  Now, Typhoon Parma is meandering in the northeastern South China Sea or the western Luzon Strait.  As the two storms get close, the flow around Melor will tend to send Parma down to the south.  Meanwhile, the flow around Parma may swing Melor a bit more northwest.  But, Melor is the dominant storm and has much greater forward momentum so the effects of Parma on it would be less distinct though it may be significant enough to swing Melor closer to Japan than might otherwise happen.  Japan is going to at least be affected by the western edge of Melor.  Meanwhile, the big question with Parma will be if the flow around Melor is strong enough and lasts long enough to swing Parma south and then southeast back toward the Philippines, which could be catastrophic because in all liklihood, this would take it back over Manila.  But, several of the models want to bring the storm back south and then west…as Melor moves quickly to the northeast, Parma gets slung out before it comes back around to the Philippines and instead moves southwest and then west toward Vietnam, which isn’t good for them either because they too had great affect from last week’s Tropical Storm Ketsana.  The variables remain great and so the confidence in the longer term forecast remains questionable.  See the 15Z Forecast Discussion/Prognastic reasoning for Parma at the bottom of the post.

W Pacific IR Satellite Loop

I’ve had some queries regarding how to track Typhoon Parma and Typhoon Melor.  If you click on this link for the Western Pacific Water Vapor Image Loop, you will get the most recent imagery and it will provide the best viewing of the eye for either storm if it exists.  If you click on the maps of the forecast track for either storm, the most recent update of the forecast track and the most recent position will also appear.  We kinda take this satellite stuff for granted nowadays, but the ability to track tropical cyclones really hasn’t been around too long. The first storm tracked using satellite imagery was Hurricane Camille in August 1969.  It just happened that that storm developed rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico from a long lived tropical storm into a hurricane with winds of up to 200 mph.  The forecast was difficult but with the satellite technology available, the forecasters were able to improve their ability and perhaps many lives were spared with an advanced warning that they may not have otherwise have had.  You can find the history of the origin of man-made space satellites below…

On This Date In History: Speaking of satellites…on this date in 1957, many Americans were quaking in their boots. The Soviet Union launched Sputnik, the first artificial satellite. It was a small metal sphere with a few antennae sticking out. It weighed about 157 pounds and emitted a radio beeping sound heard by millions around the earth as news readers announced the feat. The frightful thing about the development in many Americans’ minds was that the Soviets had proven they could launch an intercontinental ballistic missile. If they could deliver a metal sphere into space, then it was plausible they could deliver an atomic warhead into Uncle Sam’s back yard. Sputnik came to be known as a “baby moon” because, like the moon, it was a satellite of the earth and both had spherical shapes. That led many Americans to fear that the Soviets would gain a strategic edge in outer space development….perhaps build space platforms or a base on the moon from which they could make sneak attacks on the USA by dropping bombs from above. There’s a great line from The Right Stuff  in which Lyndon Johnson says, “I for one do not intend to go to bed at night by the light of a communist moon!” The US Army launched Explorer I on January 31, 1958 as Americas first artificial satellite.

Today's Weather Satellites are descendents of Sputnik

The Eisenhower Administration decided it was time to get serious and so on October 1, 1958 the President announced the creation of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to bring all space efforts under one umbrella. President Kennedy made it a national goal to put a man on the moon by the end of the 1960′s. He made no mention of it but most Americans thought the idea was to beat the Soviets to the moon. We did and that was that….we also got Tang, Teflon, mini-computers, microwave ovens and other things but not Velcro. That was invented by a Swiss Mountain climber in the 1940′s and 1950′s…it took him a while to develop it. I think he got his inspiration from his dog getting grass burrs in his coat following a mountain walk.

Louisville Weather Bottom Line:  Previously, it appeared that a warm front would be lifted our way on Monday and increase rain chances then.  There had been some notion that would happen.  The GFS had been most bullish on this solution but its taken it off the board.  The Canadian Model has short waves to the south but moves them east instead of into the Ohio Valley.   So, Monday will have a mix of clouds and sun with rain chances increasing on Tuesday as a warm front/cold front combo works its way through.  So, look for rain Tuesday, maybe some t’storms.  Rain chances will carry into Tuesday night and then reinforcing cool air coming in for the rest of the week.  The cool pattern appears to be interested in sticking around for at least another 10 days.

WDPN33 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) PARMA HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. A FAIRLY NEW UPPER LEVEL FEATURE (SHORTWAVE TROUGH) APPEARS
TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAPID DEPLETION OF PARMA’S DEEP
CONVECTION. THE TROUGH ORIGINATED OVER CENTRAL CHINA AND HAS SINCE
CONTINUED TO DIG EQUATORWARD. SKEW-T SOUNDINGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CHINA INDICATE THE TROUGH EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTH AS 23.5N,
LESS THAN 4 DEGREES SHY OF PARMA’S LATITUDE. A VERY TIGHT SHEAR
GRADIENT, AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS, ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH, CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE CURRENT VOID OF
DEEP CONVECTION A STRONG SURFACE CIRCULATION REMAINS. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE FALLEN TO A 3.0/4.0. THE FINAL-T NUMBER IS
BASED ON THE PATTERN-T, VICE A WRAP, BECAUSE THE CONVECTION IS TOO
WEAK. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO GENERALLY TRACKED FROM NORTHWESTWARD TO
MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. 
3.   FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM BECAUSE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DROPPED BELOW 65 KNOTS.
    B. THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO THE NORTHEAST OF
LUZON IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
REINTENSIFICATION EXISTS ONCE THE TROUGH MENTIONED IN PARA 2.A.
PASSES TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER WILL BEGIN TO
STALL INTENSIFICATION OR EVEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROUGH MAY STRIP THE CIRCULATION OF SO
MUCH CONVECTION THAT IT IS UNABLE TO REBOUND BEFORE UPWELLING BEGINS
TO CUT OFF INTENSIFICATION ALL TOGETHER. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TS 19W GIVEN THAT IT IS IN A WEAK AND
ILL-DEFINED STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IF RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM, THEN STORM WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE
SOUTHWEST, AS THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS INDICATE. ON THE
OTHER HAND, IF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REBUILDS FASTER (AND STRONGER)
THAN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST THEN THAT WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM FOR PARMA. THERE IS ALSO THE EXPECTATION THAT IF
THE STORM IS UNABLE TO REACQUIRE DEEP CONVECTION, THE TRACKERS WILL
INITIALIZE A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH ERRONEOUS TRACK SOLUTIONS.
    C. THERE IS NO STRONG INDICATION, THAT BEYOND DAY 4, THE CYCLONE
WILL BEGIN TO BE PICKED UP BY ANY RIDGING/FLOW SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
GUIDE IT OUT OF THIS QUASISTATIONARY STATE. AS SUCH, THE FORECAST
REMAINS SLOW, BUT NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.

No Bucks, No Buck Rodgers-US Could Have Had the 1st Satellite Before Sputnik September 21, 2009

Redstone Rocket took Americans into Space and Could have taken first satellite into orbit had the funding been provided

Soviets were 1st, But Uncle Sam Could have been

This Date in History:  On October 4, 1957 the Soviet Union blasted a 184 pound “baby moon” into orbit ushering in the space age.  The small satellite was called Sputnik was a round sphere that emitted a weak radio signal to prove its existance and whereabouts.  It put panic in the hearts of all Americans at the thought that the Soviets had the abiliity to put something into space that could perhaps drop bombs on our unsuspecting nation.  One guy who was really not enthused was Werner Von Braun.  He was the german whiz kid who had developed Hitler’s rocket program during World War II.   Now, Von Braun was basically a science nerd who went along with the Third Reich out of expediency.  He needed funding to prove his great ideas about rocketry and the government gave it to him.  He probably didn’t like that it was being used  to kill people, but it didn’t bother  him so much that he denied to chance to try out new toys and experiments.  So, when the war was over and the United States captured him, he jumped at the chance to make more rockets and experiments for the United States.  He even eventually became a US citizen. It was Von Braun who led the American effort to put a man on the moon.  He was behind the ingenuity for the giant Saturn V rocket.

Von Braun Not Happy in September 1956

Von Braun Happy Being Captured by Americans

But, Von Braun was angry in October 1957, as he probably was on this date in 1956.  Nearly a full year before Sputnik, Von Braun had demostrated the ability of his Redstone rocket by blasting it about 3000 miles over the Atlantic to a height of 600 miles.  Had the rocket had fuel in the upper stages instead of sand, he could have acheived orbit.  But, the folks holding the purse strings in Washington wanted military missles and refused to provide funding.  And so on September 21, 1956 Verner Von Braun sat disappointed that the previous day he was denied his chance to put a satellite into orbit.  About a year later, the Soviets became the first and apparent leaders in the space race, even though Von Braun had the ability long before.  After Sputnik, that all changed and so, with the funding and support, it is not surprising that it was Von Braun and the United States became the first to put a man on the moon and return him safely to earth.

From NWS Louisville

Weather Bottom Line: At my house, my rain guage said I had a total of about 3.75 inches of rain. The airport reported a record rainfall total of 3.95 inches.   Radar estimates in Southern Indiana were way higher than that.  I had decent rain in the early hours of Monday yet the rain gauges that you see below really didn’t record much more than what you see below through 11:50pm.  It had looked like places west of I-65 were going to get more rain than the rest of us but that was a little much.  The long wave pattern just is moving very slowly and so when you get instability as we had yesterday, it stays in one place.  Now, the trof that will develop to our west will be slow to move.  So, from a sensible standpoint, it would seem that the Ohio Valley being on the front side of the trof will set us up for a rather unsettled pattern for much of the week ahead with lots of moisture streaming up from the southwest and perhaps little disturbances flowing through the pattern to trigger showers now and again until the whole long wave pattern moves and we get cooler air as the trof traverses eastward.  That is what I think will happen.  I suspect that what we will see is numerous clouds with maybe some breaks now and then with off and on rain and the heaviest rain with the highest probability of rain and t’storms coming over the weekend with the passage of a coldfront and the trof transition.  The GFS seems to advertise this quite nicely with about 3/4 of an inch of rain through Saturday with a little bit falling each day.  Then we get decidedly cooler and drier come Sunday.  But, the NAM is not so bullish with rain, keeping today completely dry and only a little bit on Tuesday.  The GFS had a much much better handle on Sunday’s weather with the heavy rain.  Given that it did a pretty good job and it makes sense, I think its the better part of valor to accept its findings.  The only wrinkle would be if the trof retrogrades but I just dont think that it would move so far west as to make us dry for the week ahead.  Expect cloud and rain induced limitations on high temperatures and muggy and mild nights.

Rainfall midnight Sun to 11:50pm Sun

TR01	West County WWTP	0.00	2.71
TR02	PRP Fire Station Training Facility	0.00	2.36
TR03	Shively PS	0.00	2.58
TR04	Morris Forman WWTP	0.00	2.66
TR05	Beargrass Creek PS	0.00	3.72
TR06	Hite Creek WWTP	0.12	2.05
TR07	Floyds Fork WWTP	0.00	1.85
TR08	Fern Creek Fire Station #3	0.00	2.13
TR09	Cedar Creek WWTP	0.00	2.24
TR10	Camp Horine (Jefferson Co. Forest)	0.00	2.73
TR11	Northern Ditch PS	0.00	2.73
TR12	Nightingale PS	0.00	3.40
TR13	St. Matthews Elementary School	0.00	2.13
TR14	Lea Ann Way PS	0.00	2.32
TR15	Jeffersontown WWTP	0.00	2.19
TR17	Mt. St. Francis	0.12	4.77
TR18	IVY Tech	0.00	2.55