Close Call For Louisville and Thomas Jefferson June 4, 2008

We had a close call on Tuesday but everything panned out pretty much as expected.  The warm front got stuck over Louisville early Tuesday and we had our t’storms.   Certainly woke me up.  There were a few t’storm warnings though there were no reports of severe weather.  Once that first impulse moved by, the warm front surged north and the second wave came across, producing a tornado warning for Lawrence and Jackson county around midday.  There was some damage and an injury near Bedford.  That storm caused a little trouble in Scott and Jefferson counties in Indiana.  The warm front then moved farther north and storms in the evening trekked just north of the viewing area dropping a couple of possible tornadoes in counties between Louisville and Indianapolis. 

As the warm front lifted north, we got a surge of warm air aloft, which the models picked up on very nicely.  That is the cap I kept talking about.  That is when you get warmer air aloft and an air parcel can’t be lifted so easily unless you heat up the lower atmosphere enough or some other dynamic feature forces the parcel upward.  If it breaks the cap, that’s when you get thunderstorms that just explode.  We had a ton of potential energy and still do, but the cap was so strong that it was impossible to tap that energy.  Along the warm front, it was possible.  Overnight, the storms will progress to our north from the west to east.  It’s possible that the atmosphere may cool from to bottom in the northern areas but not real likely for much of the viewing area as so much warm air continues to surge in aloft.  For that reason, there may be some storms in the extreme north on Wednesday morning.  Then the whole warm front lifts farther north and we are done.  Most  of the viewing area, particularly from Louisville to the south is probably done period. We’re all in for a big heat up through the weekend as a ridge builds in and we look like early August instead of early June.

The SPC map from Tuesday afternoon for Wednesday will probably hold true but I will update on Wednesday morning.

On This Date In History:  Everyone knows about Paul Revere’s ride with him crying out “the British are coming” and the Old North Church “one if by land, two if by sea.”  But what about Jack Jouett?  He may have done as much or more to save the Revolution on June 4, 1781.

The Virginia Assembly was convening in Charlottesville, Va.  Jouett was a captain in the Virginia Militia and the 27-year-old was hanging around the Cuckoo Tavern in Louisa County.  There he saw part of the 250 Redcoats whom he found out were on their way to Charlottesville to capture the Assembly…including Thomas Jefferson.  Jouett took off into the night and rode 40 miles through dense wilderness that was dangerous by day and possibly deadly by night.  Unlike Revere, he didn’t travel by nice well-traveled roads.  It’s amazing that he got through because most people couldn’t have made the trip in one day let alone one night.  He arrived at Jefferson’s door at Monticello at dawn, his face swollen and scratched from branches that whacked him to and fro on his harrowing trip.  Nevertheless…when the British arrived, the Assembly was gone, including Jefferson.  So, the lesson may be that if you are trying something clever…stay out of taverns.  And, I think we should start a new rhyme about Jack Jouett.

Now listen Children now sit right back, and hear the tale of Captain Jack

He rode through the night and was slapped in the face

He rescued Jefferson from a dangerous place!

Threat Ending June 3, 2008

I dont have time to put in links but you can go to the previous post and click on the SPC link to find it.  What is happenening is what we suspected would happen.  The boundary is lifting north as the second complex moved by.  The air in our area aloft is warming rapidly effectively capping the atmosphere.  Our severe chances or even thunderstorm chances appear to be over for the evening. Perhaps something overnight and early tomorrow and then that is it for the immediate future.

June 3 Storm Threat June 3, 2008

This is the morning update from the SPC.   A short wave brought some good rain and t’storms to the area on Tuesday morning.   This was one of the inhibiting factors to our severe weather threat that I mentioned previously.   Much of the energy has been robbed. The warm front is almost over the top of Louisville as of 10:45 am with the passing short wave holding up the boundary’s progress to the north.  Once it passes, the warm front should lift and the data continues to indicate that while we reload this afternoon, we also warm the air aloft, creating a cap.  It should be sufficient to keep the lid on any developinig storms.  We may even see some towering cu and they get squashed.  If you notice the moderate risk is close but tails off quickly.  It would appear that the SPC is cautioning against the event that the warm front does not lift too far north between fronts and we therefore would not get the warming aloft.  This is something that appears remote but it will be monitored.  The way things are unfolding this morning suggests the more pedestrian scenario but it will be monitored.

Here’s the SPC link that should update throughout the day

Severe Threat Overnight Possible, Not Probable May 10, 2008

Here’s the 4PM updated map from the SPC and it’s not much different from the last one.  The reason that they have us in the slight risk is because big storms blowing up well west and southwest of here could possibly hold together as they move into our area. But there are several inhibiting factors that will make it difficult to sustain the storms at a high level in our area.  First off, we have big time dry air. Our dewpoint at 6 pm was 45 while down in Arkansas it was in the 70′s.  The mid 50 dewpoints though were only down in Owensboro so we will have moisture moving into our area, its just questionable if the associated potential energy(CAPE) will be sufficient to support big storms.  Probably not.  Then there is the dynamic which far and away will be best  to our south and southwest.  That is the strong wind energy associated with the jet stream as well as winds changing wind speed and or direction over a given distance, vertical or horizontal. That is what is known as shear and its not the great around here.  Then, of course, the timing of the system is well after midnight…probably around 4AM and Mr. Sun will still be in bed so he won’t be any help.  Still, if the storms initiate strong enough and there is enough support, its possible, not probable that a couple may hold together and cause some monkey business. If they did it would probably be gusty winds and maybe small hail.  Overall I’m not that worked up about this but I will be here all night should these big guys become troublemakers around here.  I think the Ozarks or say, southern Missouri through Arkansas, maybe northern Mississippi or even west Tennessee may have a worrisome night…again.

As before, here is the day one outlook from the SPC. It will give you access to the text data from the SPC as well as the probability maps associated with the general map shown above.  This link will automatically to change to reflect the latest day one outlook, so if you check it on another day, it will have changed to whatever is current that particular day.

Day One Storm Prediction Center Outlook

Join or Die May 9, 2008

What you see is the SPC severe risk for Friday and Saturday.  Friday is the one with the small area of the slight risk to our South.  Pretty unlikely for us to get anything worthwhile.  We’re in the midst of a series of shortwaves wandering across the flow.  So, look for rain and perhaps some t’storms on Friday afternoon or Friday night.  The bulk of Saturday looks pretty good.  Do your yardwork then. My yard looks like a jungle with all of the rain we’ve had.  Next round of rain and t’storms comes Saturday night into Sunday with the biggest risk for bad stuff in Arkansas.  Those folks have just been getting hammered this spring, haven’t they? Don’t plan on a picnic for mom because the rain may end by the afternoon but it will be windy and getting cooler.  In spite of the big slight risk area, there is nothing that jumps out at me right now for there to be a huge concern at this time, but we will monitor it and I’m sure the risk area will be refined.

On This Date In HistoryYou may recognize this snake from the HBO Miniseries “John Adams”.   This was actually the first political cartoon to appear in American newspapers.  It was constructed by Benjamin Franklin and the pieces of the snake represent each of the colonies or sections of the colonies.  There was a superstition that a snake cut into pieces would re-unite after sunset.  It went along with Franklin’s editorial referring to the “disunited state” of the colonies and how they were better off united. 

Here’s the rub….this cartoon first appeared in the Philadelphia Gazette on this date in 1754.  That is well before the colonists were talking separation from the crown.  Nope, this was done in relation to the French and Indian War and the debate on whether the colonists would join in the fight against the French and their Indian allies.  It showed up again in 1765 when the issue of the Stamp Act arose.  Newspapers reprinted the cartoon though there were different interpretations of what it meant.  Many colonists opposed to the Stamp Act associated the image with eternity, vigilance, and prudence.  Those who were loyal to the King saw the cartoon with more biblical traditions, such as those of guile, deceit, and treachery.  Franklin was opposed to the use of the cartoon at that time but it showed up in publications nearly every week for over a year. 

Printed without permission!!  Had the legal establishment been what it is today, Franklin may have sued. But I guess he was a pretty big hitter himself.

Oaks Day/Kentucky Derby Day Weather Outlook From Boys At SPC May 2, 2008

Here is the link directly to the SPC for their detailed discussion.  Don’t be too concerned.

SPC Discussion Link

 

 

 

You see that the SPC has shifted the slight risk a tad to the east and that the moderate risk is not far away.  However, if you look closely, you will note that the probability lines are packed quite tightly and the greatest threat is still a distance away.  As previously mentioned, this reflects what I have been saying and that is that once the sun goes down, the storms will lose a source of energy and their ability to break any cap over the area will be diminished.  Further, the dynamics start to get messed up by the time the line of activity gets here.  Forecast is still on track.  Scattered stuff Friday afternoon probably has slight potential for monkeybusiness.  Main batch overnight has diminished threat due to timing but certainly worth monitoring as there will be some furniture moving and gusty winds.  Derby Day the rain ends the first part leaving a wet infield.  Afternoon we may see some scattered activity but mainly just showers with some rumbles of thunder.

Bottom line is that is should be fairly decent weather for both days with the potential for some passing activity on both afternoons, so take a poncho or other rain gear. Umbrellas are not allowed in Churchhill Downs for either the Kentucky Oaks or Kentucky Derby.  An isolated t’storm Friday afternoon could be strong but the chances of something strong over Churchill Downs is limited.  Best chance for general rain will be late Friday night and Saturday morning.  The chances for strong storms will be limited but it will rain.  The cold front comes through Saturday afternoon with just scattered showers.  Highs Friday near 80. High Sat low to mid 70′s.

 

Severe Outlook For Oaks Day Through Derby Morning May 1, 2008

The threat for severe weather is pretty much what I told you in the previous two posts which is that timing issues bring limitations, hence, the greatest threat is west. But, feel free to scroll back and you can look at what I had to say OR…

Here is the link to the SPC to get their detailed stuff. 

Severe Prediction Center Link

Derby Forecast May Not Be A Winner-Ellen, Chandra, Casey and George April 30, 2008

 

What I’ve been suggesting for the weather to wind up the Derby Festival activities is pretty much still supportable. We still warm up today to the upper 60′s to low 70′s for the Parade. We still move to around 80 or so for the Parade Thursday and the front still approaches for Friday. Most of Oaks Day should be warm, humid and breezy but pop up showers or even t’showers may be on the prowl ahead of the front on Friday afternoon. Then the main event shows up for Friday night. The severe prospects will probably be limited due to the timing of the front and be mainly west but the SPC has us in the eastern flank of the severe risk for Friday into Saturday morning.  There will be pretty good available energy and decent dynamics and that is why they have us in the risk but its also on the edge because of the timing.

 Rain will be possible for Saturday morning. Now, there also continues to be a suggestion, perhaps even more suggestive than yesterday, that we have a situation on Saturday similar to what we had on Monday. That is that a low pivots around the main low and swings through on Saturday afternoon. It’s a pool of cold air aloft and that would possibly trigger afternoon showers and t’showers. This may actually be a better chance than on Monday because our surface temperatures will be in the low to mid 70′s and not 60. That will increase the likelihood of increased lapse rates which would enhance rain/t’storm chances. This guy will act as a cold front and bring in cooler air for Sunday, though probably not as chilly as we had for Tuesday. So, the forecast is still not in the winner’s circle…maybe place but most would probably consider it call it to show.

On This Date In History: I found a source that claims that Jesus of Nazareth died on this date around 30 AD, but I haven’t been able to get corroborating evidence so take that for what its worth.

George Washington took office for the first time in 1789. I’m a bit shady on why it was April 30 and not March 4 as the Constitution outlined but my shady memory makes me want to say it was due to transportation issues. It was a long and slow journey from Mt. Vernon to New York, the provisional Capitol. In fact, if I recall correctly, John Adams was sworn in as Vice President before President Washington took his oath. Some sources claim that means that Adams was really the first president since he would assume presidential duties in the absence of a president. 100 years later, George was honored with the nations first national holiday on this date in 1889. Then, perhaps not coincidentally, on this date in 1931, the George Washington Bridge between New York and New Jersey was opened.

Casey Jones died on this date in 1900. His real name was John Luther Jones but when he took the job as a flagman for the Mobile and Ohio Railroad and someone asked him where he was from and he said Cayce, Kentucky. The men started calling him Cayce and that turned into “Casey.” He became an engineer for the Illinois Central Railroad and was driving the Cannonball Run, which was a generic term for fast trains, from Chicago to New Orleans. He was behind schedule so he had his fireman, Sim Webb to open it up. Casey had a reputation for going too fast and also for the way he handled his train whistle. People would hear the way he manipulated the tootling and say “there goes Casey Jones.” So, he’s flying along at between 75 and 100 mph in driving his passenger train when he comes around a curve and sees a freight train stopped ahead of him. He tells Webb to jump as he applies the brakes and toots the whistle. Webb jumps and Jones plows into the caboose of the freight train. They say that he had managed to slow his train down to 35 mph, thus saving all of the passengers but he was killed. The myth is that he was found with one hand clutching the whistle and the other the brake. His watch stopped at 3:52 AM and his action is credited with saving the lives of all of the passengers. The reason he was behind schedule is that he had already driven a northbound train to Memphis and decided to make another run southbound because the engineer scheduled called in sick. In spite of the heroic lore that has followed his name, an investigation concluded that he was largely to blame for driving too fast.

Remember Chandra Levy? This was the last day she was seen alive in 2001. There was a big investigation into her murder with suspicion being focused on Congressman Gary Condit. Remember it was all over the news, day and night all summer. That is until Sept. 11, 2001 and suddenly the media dropped it has fast as they picked it up. That was also the summer of “shark attacks” that suddenly wasn’t so important by mid September.

And on this date in 1997, Ellen DeGeneres “came out” on her TV show. It was all the controversy. There was on station in Alabama that refused to run the episode on TV.

Oh…one other thing. Thomas Jefferson violated the Constitution on this date in 1803 when the US government paid $15 million to France for Louisiana on this date in 1803. It was a good deal but the Constitution doesn’t give the Executive the power to do such a thing without Congressional approval. But expediency trumped the rule of law and no one said a thing.